Thunderstorms Tonight?

/Thunderstorms Tonight?

Thunderstorms Tonight?

Good morning bloggers,

There is a weak front that is not very well defined tracking southeast across the plains this morning. There is a much stronger summer cold front forecast to develop and approach the area later this weekend.  These two systems have my attention today, so let’s discuss these set ups.  The severe weather risk issued by the Storm Prediction Center has been pushed farther south.

day1otlk_1200

There is no well defined front. This is the first problem with forecasting any areas where severe thunderstorms will form.  And, this has been a consistent “problem” for storm chasers in our region all year long in this cycling pattern.  The 6 PM map is platted below. Where is the front?  I will be trying to find it later today on 41 Action News during our 4, 5, and 6 PM newscasts. By the 6:30 Pm newscast a few thunderstorms may begin forming near the frontal zone.

1

The front is still ill defined at 10 PM, but the HRRR shows thunderstorm development near KC and south of KC by late evening:

2

The next front is much stronger. It is actually looking like a candidate for the first front of the fall season.  I plotted this 7 AM Monday forecast map from the latest GFS model below.  A surface cyclone is forecast to develop over Missouri by Monday. As this moves by, a pretty nice north to northwest wind will develop by Monday evening, and this will push drier air our way and allow morning lows to possibly drop deeper into the 50s.  There will be a chance of thunderstorms later Sunday into Monday as this system moves by.

3

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Let us know if you have any questions or comments. We are less than two months away from having a new LRC to discuss. I can’t wait!  Have a great day.

Gary

2018-08-17T10:11:54+00:00August 16th, 2018|General|77 Comments

77 Comments

  1. Mr. Pete August 16, 2018 at 8:37 am - Reply

    Gary what time on Sunday are we thinking that rain could begin?

    Mr. Pete

  2. Michael Garner August 16, 2018 at 8:43 am - Reply

    Same question as Pete as we have outdoor plans and these plans do not allow weather cancellations refunds. We are going out to Independence area between 3pm and 9pm

  3. Skylar August 16, 2018 at 9:01 am - Reply

    Some storms are already forming in Central Kansas and the SPC has expanded the slight risk to include part of the metro area.

  4. matt August 16, 2018 at 9:09 am - Reply

    Yes we were put back in Slight Risk but will the Chasers be out today but maybe on Sunday into Monday.

  5. Richard August 16, 2018 at 9:11 am - Reply

    Gary or anyone with a serious answer.
    “The next front is much stronger. It is actually looking like a candidate for the first front of the fall season”
    First front of the fall season….Would that be this LRC ?

    • NoBeachHere August 16, 2018 at 9:58 am - Reply

      🤔
      Subtle change or seasonal differences?

      I’ll go with current LRC with a subtle seasonal difference.

      In a seriousness, the Artic is getting its act back together after collapsing in early May.

      • Lary Gezak August 16, 2018 at 10:21 am - Reply

        Yes, the LRC has seasonal differences, and we’re starting to see a subtle fall influence I think.

      • Richard August 16, 2018 at 10:45 am - Reply

        Trying to understand.
        that front, 47 days from Monday, (cycle length ) would be Oct 6.
        So would that be the beginnings of the new LRC forming ? I thought this current LRC first day was around Oct 10.
        With that in mind, how can the front on Monday be a given to happen, if it would be new LRC.
        Thats where I really get confused when it comes to the transition time frame.

  6. Lary Gezak August 16, 2018 at 9:59 am - Reply

    “It is actually looking like a candidate for the first front of the fall season” I could never be more excited!

    It looks like, as Three7s mentioned the other day, that there will be one more bout of heat around the beginning of September, but after that, we could slowly transition into the fall season. CPC’s Sept outlook has us in “EC” – equal chance – of above/below normal weather. So it looks like Sept will be an average month. And then into October where we learn the next LRC.

  7. Richard August 16, 2018 at 11:13 am - Reply

    Gary
    How many cycles in this years LRC and what is approx. date of the next cycle.

    • LYITC41 August 16, 2018 at 11:40 am - Reply

      He explained to you the other day why he deletes you/does not answer your questions. What part of that don’t you get?

      • Richard August 16, 2018 at 1:34 pm - Reply

        Man, what gives with you.
        NOYB ! It was not a question that I asked before
        Back off jack

      • ClassyCat August 16, 2018 at 3:47 pm - Reply

        I missed the part of why he deletes Richard/does not answer. Can someone re-share that?

        • JoeK August 16, 2018 at 5:50 pm - Reply

          Because she asks repetitive questions, Asks in such a way to stir the pot and also asks questions that have either already been answered or have been addressed within the blog. I am simply repeating as requested

          • Richard August 16, 2018 at 6:44 pm - Reply

            JoeK-MMike

            Stir the pot ? By asking how many cycles are in this LRC, and when will the next one start.
            Not been answered that I can recall. I don’t have total recall like you.
            do the search and show me

            • JoeK August 16, 2018 at 6:57 pm - Reply

              I am not MMike and I simply responded to ClassyCats question and request to share what was stated. To address your accusation that I am MMike, we have completely different communication styles so not sure how you are attempting to piece that one together.

              • Richard August 17, 2018 at 6:56 pm

                JoeK-MMike
                I call BS
                Same, exact communication style.
                One other thing gives it away.
                Give it some thought.

  8. Jordan August 16, 2018 at 12:52 pm - Reply

    60% chance of thunderstorms this evening, some could be on the strong to severe side.

    Translation: We will continue to lower the chance throughout the day to about 20%, and the storms will form about 100-150 miles south of the metro.

  9. matt August 16, 2018 at 1:39 pm - Reply

    Their will be Storms some where in area.

  10. Nate August 16, 2018 at 1:51 pm - Reply

    No storms in the metro tonight, sorry

    • Snow Miser August 16, 2018 at 4:27 pm - Reply

      This comment didn’t age well.

  11. Tim August 16, 2018 at 2:01 pm - Reply

    Well from what I read this morning there is a cap in place until tonight.

  12. Anonymous August 16, 2018 at 2:09 pm - Reply

    LRC is magic! Take any subtle change, add in seasonal differences and influences, multiply by the EOI and then put on a blindfold & throw darts. IT FITS!!

  13. Snow Miser August 16, 2018 at 2:09 pm - Reply

    The SPC has moved the “slight” area northward to include the southern parts of the KC metro:
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

  14. f00dl3 August 16, 2018 at 2:16 pm - Reply

    HRRR is so full of poop. Far fetched we are getting 2″ of rain ANYWHERE in KC tonight. Not in this LRC. Wow.

  15. f00dl3 August 16, 2018 at 2:18 pm - Reply

    FWIW — KC Metro is now in Drought 4 / Exceptional – just like we were in 2012. #WetDrought2018

    http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?KS

    • Anonymous August 16, 2018 at 2:27 pm - Reply

      Well, at least the northwest side of the Metro. Most of Jackson County is still in D2.

    • KS Jones August 16, 2018 at 2:51 pm - Reply

      How many inches short of average precipitation is KC experiencing? That map shows we (Pottawatomie-Marshall County line) are in D-2 (severe) drought, and I believe we are roughly 5″ below average.

    • Richard August 16, 2018 at 2:54 pm - Reply

      Looks like Lawrence is still in D3.
      Most of WyCo D4
      And wetern JoCo D4, but not Olathe….barely

  16. KS Jones August 16, 2018 at 2:45 pm - Reply

    This weather statement from the NWS in Topeka was issued at 2:05 PM today, but does it really seem likely? https://www.weather.gov/images/top/wxstory/Tab3FileL.png

    • Blue Flash August 16, 2018 at 2:55 pm - Reply

      Nothing even starting to pop up on satellite….so at least the first hour of that forecast is a dud.

      • Anonymous August 16, 2018 at 2:57 pm - Reply

        Storm just west of Topeka on radar.

      • Psychotic Aardvark August 16, 2018 at 2:58 pm - Reply

        Storm just west of Topeka on radar

      • KS Jones August 16, 2018 at 3:00 pm - Reply

        Yeah, and the page says Today (Wednesday, 8/16), so none of it makes sense.

  17. Blue Flash August 16, 2018 at 3:00 pm - Reply

    New NWS discussion calls for supercell development between 7 pm and midnight.

    https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=EAX&issuedby=EAX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

  18. Psychotic Aardvark August 16, 2018 at 3:05 pm - Reply

    SPC expanded slight risk of severe weather again further north towards St. Joe to include all of KC.

  19. Tdogg August 16, 2018 at 3:13 pm - Reply

    LRC

    Lonely
    Richard
    Complains

    Every. Single. Day.

    • RickMcKC August 16, 2018 at 3:35 pm - Reply

      I do not understand why this person is allowed to continue posting here.

      • Blue Flash August 16, 2018 at 3:38 pm - Reply

        Agreed. It meets the classic definition of cyber bullying!

      • Tdogg August 16, 2018 at 8:49 pm - Reply

        LRC

        Little
        RickMcKC
        Complains

        Lmao @ cyberbullying

    • Richard August 16, 2018 at 3:59 pm - Reply

      dogg
      Where is a complaint from me today.
      None, until now, wondering why Gary continues to give you a pass

      You and LYITC41 must have a close connection to Gary to continually be allowed to troll on here.

  20. MikeL August 16, 2018 at 3:16 pm - Reply

    Isolated storm just moved over my house in SW Topeka. Looks like about .02″ of rain fell. Well…that’s something to build on I guess…

  21. ginapuff August 16, 2018 at 3:30 pm - Reply

    NWS has a MD discussion of a watch being issued soon for NE KS.

  22. Max August 16, 2018 at 3:37 pm - Reply

    Severe T Storm watch for all of metro until 11:00pm

  23. Mr. Pete August 16, 2018 at 3:39 pm - Reply

    Severe T Storm Watch issued JOCO KS.

  24. Nick August 16, 2018 at 3:39 pm - Reply

    Watch was issued 1 minute before your post!

  25. WeathermanKumke August 16, 2018 at 3:43 pm - Reply

    West JoCo gonna be the winner tonight

  26. Matt August 16, 2018 at 4:07 pm - Reply

    Warnings just south and west of Olathr.

  27. Jordan August 16, 2018 at 5:36 pm - Reply

    I’m guessing my chance just went out the window when that cell formed a couple miles east of me. And, of course, the widespread rain is well to our south. Another great job by the models predicting when rain will fall more than 30 minutes before the event.

    • Jordan August 16, 2018 at 5:36 pm - Reply

      when=where

    • Gary August 16, 2018 at 5:51 pm - Reply

      I am concerned, as I am about to come on the air at 6 PM; concerned that it is over for KC already. These thunderstorms formed so early and got so big down near Garnet, KS, where they have been hit multiple times this season, that it has caused the air to sink farther north and this may have ended our chance of thunderstorms tonight. The sky still looks like it should produce a few thunderstorms. Not sure yet. Sunday into Monday still looks rather interesting. More on that tomorrow.

      • Jordan August 16, 2018 at 7:09 pm - Reply

        It does look like it has potential, but so has pretty much every other storm on the models 3-4 days beforehand this year. The last storm predicted 1″-1.5″ for my area, then suddenly dropped to .1″-.5″ 24 hours ahead of it (I ended up with .3″). That’s happened consistently this entire year. Sorry for being the eternal pessimist on the blog, Gary, but this summer has been less than encouraging for a first-time farmer.

  28. REAL HUMEDUDE August 16, 2018 at 6:58 pm - Reply

    Spitting around farm, unbelievable. Ft.Scott, pounded again. They’ve had 10+” more than I have this year I guarantee it

    • Jordan August 16, 2018 at 7:13 pm - Reply

      Our corn ended up fried this year, and all of the fields around Wyandotte County that don’t have irrigation look exactly the same. If things don’t improve this winter, I doubt we’ll plant as much as we did next year.

      • Jordan August 16, 2018 at 8:28 pm - Reply

        Guess what that big line passing through the city did to me? lol

  29. DaveC August 16, 2018 at 7:43 pm - Reply

    Whenever I see that rain is in the forecast.. I just chuckle inside.

  30. Trainman August 16, 2018 at 7:46 pm - Reply

    Lots of scattered storms firing up around the metro now. Thought we would remain dry tonight but weather can surprise

  31. Jordan August 16, 2018 at 8:10 pm - Reply

    HOW THE HELL DID THAT LINE MISS ME?!?!?! %#@$#$#@!%^(@&^*)#@(!)

    • Jordan August 16, 2018 at 8:16 pm - Reply

      I can’t even blame this one on the models, this is just Mother Nature ******* with me.

    • Heat Miser August 16, 2018 at 8:21 pm - Reply

      Tsk tsk…such foul language. LOL

      • Jordan August 16, 2018 at 8:27 pm - Reply

        Heyyyy, I censored myself… for the most part. lol

  32. Nate August 16, 2018 at 8:17 pm - Reply

    Classic Weather Manipulation Operations

    • Heat Miser August 16, 2018 at 8:21 pm - Reply

      Classic conspiracy theory nut

  33. Mary August 16, 2018 at 8:27 pm - Reply

    Nice steady rain with thunder in central Shawnee

  34. Matt August 16, 2018 at 8:44 pm - Reply

    Lots of Thunder and Lighting Northern OP.

  35. Emaw August 16, 2018 at 9:26 pm - Reply

    Bone dry in north Olathe, complete “miss Noonan”! I thought I saw a non descript light cessna overhead today . . .

  36. Snow Miser August 16, 2018 at 9:29 pm - Reply

    I got a couple of so-so bands passing through me southeast of the stadiums. Nothing earth shattering, but so-so periods lasting a short while, plus some lighter stuff mixed in.

    NAM 3km says we’ll get more in a few hours? Not sure whether to believe it or not.

    • Blue Flash August 16, 2018 at 9:32 pm - Reply

      That’s what Katie says too

      • WeathermanKumke August 17, 2018 at 3:45 am - Reply

        She’s the last person you’d want to get weather from

        • LYITC41 August 17, 2018 at 6:33 am - Reply

          Agreed! Cantbelieve she’s baaaaack! Refuse to watch her. That performance from a few years back, when she came in for a funnel cloud, pretty much pushed the wknd guy out of the way (he was doing fine) and went on air in a t-shirt, that was just so bad!

  37. disbelief August 16, 2018 at 9:31 pm - Reply

    It is almost like a four year old draws the weather maps…just color where you think it will rain

  38. Stacey August 16, 2018 at 10:01 pm - Reply

    Not even a drop in South Olathe…sad day!

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