More Hits Than Misses This Time

/More Hits Than Misses This Time

More Hits Than Misses This Time

Good morning bloggers,

A swirling upper level summer storm system has moved by and weakened this morning. This system helped produce rather wide spread rainfall amounts in the 0.10″ to 2.50″ range near KC, with a bulls eye of close to 7″ as estimated on the radar network shown below:

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Now, look closely.  The areas with no colors shaded in are the areas that likely had not even 0.01″ of rain.   Yes, there were still some areas that got missed again.  I ended up with 0.93″ of rain for the entire total from three different bands of rain and thunderstorms.  The next good chance is showing up Thursday night:

gfs_z500_vort_us_9

The weather pattern is a summer version of this years LRC.  The cycling pattern continues, the one that set up last fall, and it will continue through the end of September before the new pattern will be welcome by most of us with an open heart in October.  The map above shows the 500 mb forecast, around 18,000 feet above us, valid Thursday night.  There is another disturbance heading southeast over the central plains extending northeast into the Great Lakes region.  This disturbance will track overhead Thursday night and it will produce thunderstorms, and once again they will be hit and miss.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_8

Let’s see how this sets up in the next two days.  We are still underneath the cold pool aloft from the upper level storm that tracked over the plains yesterday. There may be enough instability for a few showers and thunderstorms today.  Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

2018-08-16T08:22:05+00:00August 15th, 2018|General|24 Comments

24 Comments

  1. Snow Miser August 15, 2018 at 8:00 am - Reply

    Only one 90 degree forecast high for the next week according to Wunderground, and that’s tomorrow. Nothing but 80’s otherwise.

  2. Three7 August 15, 2018 at 9:03 am - Reply

    Nice to be in the cooler part of the pattern before the heat returns later this month and into September. Only one more stretch of heat in this LRC to go!

    • Richard August 15, 2018 at 10:19 am - Reply

      Heat returning later this month into Seotember ? How hot

      • LYITC41 August 15, 2018 at 11:13 am - Reply

        Hotter than 2 rats in a wool sock behind the dryer. But just at your house.

        • Richard August 15, 2018 at 11:34 am - Reply

          Back off

      • Three7 August 15, 2018 at 2:56 pm - Reply

        Not sure, but it should be much cooler than previous cycles.

        • Richard August 15, 2018 at 4:33 pm - Reply

          Three7
          Thanks

  3. REAL HUMEDUDE August 15, 2018 at 9:22 am - Reply

    Totally Missed the main rain bands yesterday. Got super lucky to catch a couple storms Sunday and Monday, 1.3″ total for the storm with almost no rain yesterday at all. Hoping for some more rain soon, didn’t do nearly as well as I had hoped

    • Tdogg August 15, 2018 at 1:26 pm - Reply

      LRC

      Liberal
      Real Humedude (lives in Shawnee)
      Complains

  4. Kathy August 15, 2018 at 9:25 am - Reply

    Gary, I live over 40 miles away from you and received the exact same rain total. In looking at the NWS forecast for next week, it appears we may have a taste of fall. After some rain, this cooler weather will be welcome. I realize we are in the same LRC, but am hoping that subtle differences are starting to show up that will be part of next year’s LRC. Each year we are hopeful we get a better LRC but that hasn’t been the case, it seems, for these past three winters. I’ve been reading about the Modoki El Nino on this blog and other websites, and it appears that we are smack dab in the middle of the hot dry weather of the west and the cold snowy weather of the east. So, until this new LRC forms, it’s going to be anyone’s guess about how our winter will turn out.

    • Three7 August 15, 2018 at 9:58 am - Reply

      Yeah, El Nino Modoki throws a lot of people off. I just hate it because it increases the chance of an eastern trough/western ridge drastically. We’ll see what happens.

    • Gary August 15, 2018 at 10:28 am - Reply

      Please remember this forecast. When it is wrong, no one will remember.

      Gary

  5. LYITC41 August 15, 2018 at 9:44 am - Reply

    Hopefully snowless w/ just rain (not freezing), but we all know that’s not going to happen. Got .50″ S.OP over 24 hrs. which is good, thankful for it.

  6. Farmgirl August 15, 2018 at 9:45 am - Reply

    I’m in the missed category again, missed as in only received .10 of an inch. What is frustrating is on Sunday Gerad showed a rainfall map that had the southern viewing area getting at least over an inch with the northern areas less. The opposite happened….AGAIN! Hopefully, we’ll get our shot at some decent rain on Thursday.

    • Jordan August 15, 2018 at 2:01 pm - Reply

      That’s been the pattern the entire summer. All of the models (save one outlier usually) show us getting a nice, widespread rain until a day before (or less), then suddenly show a scattered event, or a complex splitting around us and reforming to our southeast. I’m afraid that’s what is going to happen on Thursday night, because the models already have the bullseye that was over just just yesterday inching south of KC (which might actually be good for Hume’s farm).

  7. Richard August 15, 2018 at 10:22 am - Reply

    Saw a video Norman OK flooding last night.
    Car being slowly swept down a street with driver still inside.
    Luckily a cop was right there wading in waist deep water, was able to put his hands out, stop the car, got the driver out, and they walked to safety.
    Turn around don’t drown !

  8. KS Jones August 15, 2018 at 10:32 am - Reply

    Got another short burst of rain yesterday afternoon, bringing our total since 5:30 PM Monday to 1.06″. That took our August amount to 1.62″ and YTD to 18.76″.
    It is cool and misty this morning.

  9. Troy August 15, 2018 at 11:34 am - Reply

    Gary,

    I noticed the rain we got yesterday was really small drops. It was heavy at times up to 2″ per hour but it almost looked like snow. It seems to have fooled the radar as it didn’t look that heavy and radar estimates here are way less than the 2-3 inches that almost everyone got. What causes the small drops and why do they fool the radar?

  10. REAL HUMEDUDE August 15, 2018 at 12:33 pm - Reply

    High Precipitable moisture content yesterday, well over 2″. I’ve noticed whenever we are saturated like that you get very generous rainfall compared to similar systems. One little shower on radar will over perform, when it’s drier same shower wouldn’t even wet the ground. Weather is so cool, no 2 situations are ever the same

  11. j-ox August 15, 2018 at 1:51 pm - Reply

    .75″ in NW Lawrence. Would have preferred triple this, but grateful nonetheless.
    2.25″ over the last 9 days has made a green difference ’round here.
    1 foot down // 25″ avg and 13.5″ collected.

  12. Tim August 15, 2018 at 4:16 pm - Reply

    Another suspect short-lived “subtropical” storm given a name in the Atlantic by the National Hurricane Center, because not many “real” storms this year. Hey, the way they are issuing them this year–may be the first year more subtropical storms than tropical storms by November! LOL!… i swear I am getting to point Im just going to start calling these “FakeTropicalStorms”.

  13. Tim August 15, 2018 at 4:20 pm - Reply

    With that said– forecast for Lane in the Pacific appears to be heading reasonably close to Hawaii sometime next week as a major Hurricane.

  14. Richard August 15, 2018 at 4:37 pm - Reply

    SE KS

    08/15/2018
    On the evening of August 14, 2018 two Montgomery County men were killed when their vehicle was swept off the road during heavy rainfall. The two identified as Dennis Clark Catron Sr. (72) and Dennis Clark Catron Jr. (39) of rural Elk City. This incident happened on CR 2950 south of CR 5400.

  15. LYITC41 August 16, 2018 at 6:30 am - Reply

    Incredibly tragic and my heart goes out to the families of these men, but why is this relevant to this blog? Not even a local story and has nothing to do with what’s normally discussed here.

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