The Same Pattern For Around 50 More Days

/The Same Pattern For Around 50 More Days

The Same Pattern For Around 50 More Days

Good morning bloggers,

The same pattern continues. A few of the bloggers wondered yesterday about the LRC and, unfortunately, I must inform everyone that we are in the same pattern and in the seventh LRC cycle. There will be a beginning of the eighth and final cycle of this years pattern, and then we will say goodbye to what I would consider the worst pattern in this long stretch of bad patterns for the Kansas City region.  This pattern produced a whopping 7 inches of snow this winter in around a dozen snowfalls, for an average of around 1/2″ per snowfall which is beyond ridiculous.  This pattern produced a drought that expanded over KC, and then got wiped out over parts of Kansas while we experienced it worsening, even as of today.  The good news:  A new and unique pattern, one that has never happened before (which is what unique means), will set up in early October. Oh, it will evolve slowly in the next six to seven weeks, but this horrible pattern that we have been in will continue until the new pattern takes over.  I call it a horrible pattern for many reasons. For me, the biggest reason is that, as your meteorologist in KC, I have the tough task of explaining over and over again why things are missing us. I would much rather, at least once in a while, have the much more exciting explanation of why things are actually happening. Even in October when we did get some heavier rain, that rain missed many areas in our viewing area.  I will welcome the end of this pattern. There is hope for next winter as there are signs of a weak to moderate El Niño developing.  But, remember El Niño and La Niña are just one influence on the much bigger picture, the LRC.  Now, just be patient as we get through these next few weeks.

This storm system is quite similar to the one that tracked northeast from Kansas into Nebraska in late June.  That storm produced a few heavy thunderstorms, and this one is producing some heavy rain and thunderstorms.

1

The storm in the east has produced wide spread torrential rainfall as they have had some significant flooding once again. This storm, that will be moving over the Iowa/Nebraska border later today, as you can see above, will create some unstable conditions this afternoon and evening.  Some of the latest higher resolution short range models have a few heavy thunderstorms forming near KC this afternoon.  So, there is hope that we will add to the very low rainfall totals that have added up thus far. One thing about this years LRC that is so frustrating; the fact that we have no lack of chances of rain and snow. It is just another fact that the weakest parts of these systems tend to affect our area.

IMG_4716

This picture above shows my rain gauge as of 7:30 AM. About .25″ of that fell in yesterday afternoons thunderstorm. The evening activity was spotty, and only affected a small percentage of our viewing area. This mornings rains were heavier way up north. Let’s see what happens later today.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  One band of rain moving north, and this will rotate around the main storm. A second and third round of showers and thunderstorms will be likely later in the day and tonight.  These other two rounds will still be hit and miss.  High: near 80°

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Click on the blog over at Weather2020.com to join in the conversation as we share in this weather experience.  Have a great day!

Gary

2018-08-15T10:30:47+00:00August 14th, 2018|General|77 Comments

77 Comments

  1. Snow Miser August 14, 2018 at 8:16 am - Reply

    I’ll repeat what I just posted in the old blog …

    I think Doug Heady is making some sly references to Gary in his latest blog out today:
    http://weather.koamtv.com/2018/08/14/tuesday-morning-blog-more-showers-and-thunderstorms-heady-pattern-update-your-long-range-forecast/
    “So why don’t they match perfectly? The Heady Pattern sets up each and every fall, the 3rd week of September. Now the cycle starts during the summer actually during the old pattern. It can start as early as late May and as late as early September. Last years 47 day cycle started in early August. This years cycle started in early June. This means we have already gone through a full cycle. This is why it doesn’t match perfectly. We are in the new cycle and just waiting for the new pattern to fully set. However, I can already long range forecast for the next year b/c I know the cycle length. Now I can’t give the cycle length away yet until my long range forecasting competitors find the cycle. I have a long range forecasting business which I have launched and will give you more details about over the next several months. Because of this, I have to be very careful not to give away in a sense my secret but also give you the information that you want to know. They usually find it in the month of December, but we will see if they find it faster.”

    LOL!

    • Gary August 14, 2018 at 8:55 am - Reply

      Snow Miser,

      Fact: Every year we are the ones who have come up with the cycle length. Doug has tried to come up with one in August and I commend his attempts. The facts as we know them now are that the pattern sets up by early to mid-October. We did figure it out early last year in mid to late October, but we could not confirm the cycle length until December. So, this is the last discussion on this topic in this blog. He says these things every year, and it has yet to be shown. The pattern is always cycling, and then when the new LRC sets up in October, and Doug will agree that it sets up in October, then and only then is the pattern established for the next year. Go to his blog to debate this. Read the peer reviewed paper if you would like. There is no new cycle, yet. “Heady Pattern” is the LRC. He worked with me in the early 2000s where Jeff and I showed Doug the cycling pattern. He forgets.

      Gary

      • Snow Miser August 14, 2018 at 9:04 am - Reply

        For the record, I have been bookmarking his predictions to see how they pan out. I’ll find out in a year or so if he’s been right.

        • Gary August 14, 2018 at 10:17 am - Reply

          In the past 15 years of trying to find the pattern and cycle early? Well, He is 0 for 15.

          Gary

        • Richard August 14, 2018 at 10:47 am - Reply

          Snow
          Are you also bookmarking Garys predictions, for comparison ?

          • Snow Miser August 14, 2018 at 11:04 am - Reply

            Probably I should do that.

            That said, one reason I’m bookmarking Doug’s is because it’s a pain doing searches for old posts on his blog. If you scroll through the “older posts” link it only shows 1 post per page, and there’s no calendar or anything to easily click through. This blog is much easier to search.

            • Snow Miser August 14, 2018 at 11:12 am - Reply

              Here we go. I pretty quick search on this blog made me find Gary’s initial impression pretty quick, from Sept 27:
              https://weather2020.com/2017/09/27/cloud-types-as-the-weather-pattern-begins-changing/
              “This is around the time that the old pattern has been wiped out and the new cycling pattern has started. This would not be a very good beginning for Kansas City as a rather broad ridge is forecast for form over a rather large part of North America …”

              That set the tone for the entire pattern. Much harder to find the same kind of post on Doug’s blog.

              • Richard August 14, 2018 at 11:32 am

                Very good. Great searching
                Gary nailed what this LRC was going to do
                Thanks Snow

        • JoeK August 14, 2018 at 12:46 pm - Reply

          Snow,

          I already did that for a year. He is consistently wrong and changes his long range forecasts. Also, I commented on previous blog, he is off on the cycle every year and always changes once the LRC comes into focus

          • Snow Miser August 14, 2018 at 5:18 pm - Reply

            I’ll keep that in mind, but just for the heck of it, I’ll do it this year anyway. Who knows, maybe he’ll get lucky and be right this year!

      • CC August 14, 2018 at 9:05 am - Reply

        Snow,

        Heady also stated that next year is gonna be wetter in summer. If we are already one cycle into the next pattern where is the rain

        • Snow Miser August 14, 2018 at 9:10 am - Reply

          Well, it’s raining right now, right? Also, the forecasts for the next couple weeks are showing more rain than recent.

          To me, his thesis that there’s a transition period from one cycle to the next makes some sense, because things in nature rarely change on a dime. But, maybe this is one case where things *do* change on a dime.

      • Tdogg August 14, 2018 at 10:02 am - Reply

        LRC

        Lonely
        Richard
        Complains

        We’re all ready for a new pattern Richard.

      • LYITC41 August 14, 2018 at 10:25 am - Reply

        So are you saying Mr. Heady stole this theory from you? Methinks litigation may be forthcoming. Also how was the “peer reviewed paper” received? I’ve not heard anything about that yet.

  2. Three7 August 14, 2018 at 8:31 am - Reply

    The El Nino looks like it will be a modoki or central based El Nino. Typically that means cold and snowy in the northeast, with cooler and wetter conditions along the east coast down into the gulf. I know it’s an influence, but if that rings true, it could just be another year with a trough over the eastern part of the nation and with our area under another stupid ridge.

    I hope it doesn’t happen.

    • Gary August 14, 2018 at 8:42 am - Reply

      El Niño actually favors a trough farther west. El Niño is only an influence. We are two months away from beginning to find out.

      Gary

  3. Ben August 14, 2018 at 9:07 am - Reply

    Gary didn’t this exact thing happen in the last cycle in late June? A whole bunch of hype for North MO and the heavy rain shifts west and north in to Kansas and Nebraska. That’s the way I remember it anyway

  4. Brad August 14, 2018 at 9:14 am - Reply

    Notice how many tropical storms and hurricanes we has so far this season, El Niño some some impact on the tropics as well to as we haven’t seen very much hurricanes or tropical storms in the Atlantic or Gulf Of Mexico this year. Now pacific hurricane season maybe a different story as its been quite Active over there in recent days.

    • Gary August 14, 2018 at 10:18 am - Reply

      Brad,

      There is no El Niño. It is neutral. El Niño is forecast to grow in the next four months.

      Gary

  5. NoBeachHere August 14, 2018 at 9:44 am - Reply

    While I agree with Gary about when the pattern actually sets, there is in reality small, subtle differences in the northern latitudes and tropics. It’s almost like the end of the beginning or the beginning of the end. It may very get even more discombobulated before a repeating rhythms becomes established, which usually has always worked out to the October time frame. Each and every year is different and yes, I agree there is something about transition months, again, then end of the beginning or beginning of the end, however you want to look at it 🤪 lol

  6. CC August 14, 2018 at 9:47 am - Reply

    Gary,

    Would you say we are done with the heat or do you see any more warm ups coming

    • Three7 August 14, 2018 at 10:01 am - Reply

      I’m not Gary, but there should be another warm-up coming towards early September. It shouldn’t be nearly as bad as the previous ones, since the sun angle will be lower and the jet stream will be a bit stronger.

  7. Lary Gezak August 14, 2018 at 10:07 am - Reply

    Gary, what effect does the upcoming solar minimum have on our winter? Analogs from solar minimum years have been cold. Example, 2009 was when KC recorded 44 inches of snow. Does this have any correlation?

    • Gary August 14, 2018 at 10:21 am - Reply

      Remember, the LRC is the centerpiece of the big atmospheric puzzle. These other factors influence that pattern for sure. There are certainly many unknowns and there will be for decades to come.

      Gary

      • LYITC41 August 14, 2018 at 10:36 am - Reply

        Disagree. There is no one “centerpiece” to the atmosphere, it is just too vast and complicated for that to be the case, but you are certainly entitled to that opinion.

  8. MMike August 14, 2018 at 10:19 am - Reply

    The question of the day, do you really need a degree to forecast the weather?? I don’t think so….

    The computers give you all that you need to make a reasonable forecast for today, tomorrow and the next 7-10 days. Now, after digesting the computer data and the trends, one would just need to analyze the surface set-ups, radar trends and use a bit of experience to make an accurate forecast.

    For example, today, mostly cloudy with some breaks in the clouds, some showers this morning and a potential of thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening. High temps in the 70’s where the rain is at and in the 80’s where the sun peaks out.

    Tonight: Thunderstorms will taper off to lighter showers overnight. Lows 66-72

    Tomorrow: Clearing skies by afternoon with spotty showers earlier in the day. Highs in the mid 80’s.

    Thursday: Sunny to partly sunny with highs in the mid-upper 80’s. Showers and thunderstorms possible late in the day into the night.

    Friday: Thunderstorms likely earlier in the day with highs in the mid-upper 80’s.

    The weekend: Look for normal August conditions with highs 85-90 and thunderstorms returning late in the weekend into early next week.

    See, no degree and I was able to come up with that after analyzing all the data sets. We’ll see how I do.

    • LYITC41 August 14, 2018 at 10:41 am - Reply

      If you were depending on the models for later in the week, you are going to be set up for failure!

      • MMike August 14, 2018 at 11:25 am - Reply

        LYITC41,

        Maybe, but how to gauge failure? Got to 90 instead of 85, rained .35 inches instead of 1.00 inch.

        The data is consistent with seasonal temps and several chances of rain in our area between now and early next week.

        The data 5 days ago showed rain and thunderstorm in the area early this week, here we are and showers and thunderstorms have occurred.

        ClassyCat…Hello

        No, I just looked at the NAM, GFS, EURO and blended a forecast.

        • LYITC41 August 14, 2018 at 12:42 pm - Reply

          Hear you, hope you do well.

    • ClassyCat August 14, 2018 at 10:45 am - Reply

      You analyzing data sets, or reading already interpreted data sets…..i.e. a forecast already produced?

  9. KS Jones August 14, 2018 at 10:46 am - Reply

    Now we have 0.95″ in the rain gauge, and it looks like that will be all for awhile.

  10. Richard August 14, 2018 at 10:48 am - Reply

    Wow all the talk about Heady. And the posts remain.
    Mine ? Gone again

    • Tdogg August 14, 2018 at 11:08 am - Reply

      LRC

      Lonely
      Richard
      Complains

      • Brian August 14, 2018 at 11:19 am - Reply

        You’ve got me rollin Tdogg 🤣

        • Richard August 14, 2018 at 1:55 pm - Reply

          Yeah, he is kind of growing on me too.
          Tdogg has a way of doing that 🤣

  11. Weatherby Tom August 14, 2018 at 11:04 am - Reply

    Poured out exactly 1.00″ from my rain gauge just now. Hoping for more later today

  12. Michael Garner August 14, 2018 at 11:28 am - Reply

    For those curious I will repost what I did a couple days ago.

    Predictions used for 66048. Actual numbers based upon what KCI reported and will use those numbers as KCI isn’t too far from 66048 and numbers should be fairly similar.
    These were the predictions from June 5, 2018.

    June 17 thru June 23. 79 predicted high/actual average high was 83. Off by 3, I would say that’s good.

    June 24 thru June 30. 86 predicted high/actual average high was 91. Off by 5. I would say not bad, warmer than predicted but not bad.

    July 1 thru July 7. 82 predicted high/actual average high was 90. Off by 8. I would say that’s off by a good amount. Way warmer than prediction.

    July 8 thru July 14. 83 predicted high/actual average high was 96. Off by 13. I would say really off by a wide margin. Prediction was for a way cooler week and this ended up being one of the hottest weeks this summer.

    July 15 thru July 21. 94 predicted high/actual average high was 90. Off by 4. I would say not bad.

    July 22 thru July 28. 89 predicted high/actual average high was 86. Off by 3. I would say good again.

    July 29–84 predicted high/actual average high was 87. Off by 3 I would say good.

    August 5 thru August 11. Forecast was changed from the prediction of 89 for the average high down to 84. Turns out the original prediction from June 5th would have been closer to what actually happened, average high ended up being 92. So with what the current prediction that’s an 8 degree error unless one says the original prediction was more accurate.

    So what’s the point of all this. It would appear according to the June 5 predictions for 8 weeks starting June 17, 3 weeks were only off by 3 degrees; 2 off by 4-5 degrees; and 3 weeks off by 8 degrees or more.
    So if I was to give a grade I would say a solid B? Am I fair with this grade I think so. It could have been a B+ if this last week (current week) wasn’t changed form the original prediction on June 5.
    So all in all I would say the “LRC” did well.

    Can’t grade precipitation forecast as there really isn’t any, like at least how a temperature prediction. At least no amounts predicted. Unless I missed a summer forecast for precipitation I would guess that precipitation was predicted to be below average, especially when we didn’t get the 10 inches that Gary thought we would get in May and June .

    Will be interesting to see if the “score” can continue to hold a “B” over the next several weeks or will the current LRC start to fade to much.

    Must say I’m hoping the predictions starting next week thru September 16th or off and end up being cooler than what it is showing, because of now it looks like several more weeks of above average temps.

    • Nate August 14, 2018 at 11:32 am - Reply

      Temps are easy to predict, that’s not an issue

      • Michael Garner August 14, 2018 at 11:36 am - Reply

        If easy then everyone will nail it even 6 weeks out. I have a decent grade even with some weeks off by 8 or more degrees. So I wouldn’t say it’s easy. But then again that’s just my opinion.

      • JoeK August 14, 2018 at 12:52 pm - Reply

        Nate,

        Wait, what? Temps are as difficult to predict as precipitation/amounts. Is this another tongue-in-cheek CIA weather manipulation post?

        • Michael Garner August 14, 2018 at 1:06 pm - Reply

          Exactly I’ve seen a temp forecast for 3 days out bust badly. Prediction of future is never easy, LRC or no LRC

    • KS Jones August 14, 2018 at 11:46 am - Reply

      The average high temperature for August 14th in this general area is 89°, and it drops to 88° on the 20th. WeatherUnderground’s 10-day forecast shows we’ll be cooler than those averages.
      It is currently 69° here (25 miles north of Manhattan), and the high is predicted to be 78° today, 85° Wednesday, 88° Thursday, 87° Friday, 88° Saturday, 84° Sunday, 82° Monday, 81° Tuesday, 83° Wednesday and 84° Thursday.

      • Michael Garner August 14, 2018 at 12:00 pm - Reply

        KC Jones not sure why you are posting that? Asking with no attitude attached just genuinely asking. Thanks

        • Michael Garner August 14, 2018 at 12:21 pm - Reply

          Never mind I didn’t read fully your post, it appears you are saying a forecast is showing the potential to be below normal. Not by huge amounts but I’ll always take below average temps with above average precipitation especially in the winter, if it’s snow for sure!

  13. Lary Gezak August 14, 2018 at 11:56 am - Reply

    The GFS has temps in 70s and lows in 50s to end August. Maybe we are done with the intense heat as September rolls around. Meteorological fall begins on Sept 1, so we aren’t far away from a pattern change.

    • Anonymous August 14, 2018 at 12:28 pm - Reply

      Sept. can be hot, sometimes brutally so, so reaching meteorological fall doesn’t mean were out of the heat woods yet.

    • LYITC41 August 14, 2018 at 12:37 pm - Reply

      Sept. can be hot, sometimes brutally so. Reaching meteorological fall doesn’t mean we’re out of the heat woods yet. We’re also fast approaching verification (or not) time for the “Sept 2018 Gulf Hurricane”. First signs of this should start showing up in a few days if it’s going to happen at all. Don’t want to hear about Sahara dust either if it doesn’t verify. That should have no affect on a Gulf forming tropical system.

      • LYITC41 August 14, 2018 at 12:39 pm - Reply

        *effect

      • JoeK August 14, 2018 at 12:54 pm - Reply

        LYITC41,

        According to NOAA, it can and does so yes, according to the experts, it is a rare event and has a significant impact on tropical developement

      • Gary August 14, 2018 at 12:55 pm - Reply

        There will be no excuses. A forecast is a forecast. So, no one needs to ask if we are sticking to that forecast made in January. Think about that, no one has ever in the history of meteorology made a forecast like that one. One thing I know for certain. The pattern will be right on schedule. Will there be a hurricane as predicted? Hang on! Like the Super Bowl Forecast, the Masters Forecast from 2014, and dozens of other high profile forecasts since, the models often don’t come into focus until two or three days before. They are models, the LRC is a better tool to “know” what the pattern will be. But, again, if there isn’t a hurricane, no excuses, it will be a rare miss. But, if there is one, wow!

        Gary

        • Richard August 14, 2018 at 7:23 pm - Reply

          Gary
          I asked a simple honest question if you still expect the hurricane to hit FL.
          You deleted it.
          I mentioned the deletion here.
          Now that too has been deleted.
          #1 Why was it deleted. It was a simple question.
          #2 Why are you deleting my posts.
          I have not been breaking any rules. Not trolling.
          I will keep asking about your decision to delete my comments. I think I deserve an answer.

          Tdogg will come here and say the usual. And as usual you will let it pass.
          You have given him a pass since day one of his trolling.

          • Tdogg August 14, 2018 at 8:40 pm - Reply

            LRC

            Lonely
            Richard
            Complains

          • Gary August 14, 2018 at 10:10 pm - Reply

            Because you ask the same questions over and over again. It seems you ask questions just to stir up the pot, that you already know the answer too. For example, “Are you still predicting the hurricane in early September?”. You know that forecast was made, which is why you ask, but why?

            Gary

            • Richard August 15, 2018 at 10:09 am - Reply

              Gary
              Wth ! Thats bull ! I asked ONE TIME ! It got deleted after one time.
              LYITC41 mentions the hurricane and that post remained.
              You deleted my other posts that had nothing to do with the hurricane.
              You come back from vacation and single me out. For what !
              You allow troll Tdogg to keep up his trolling but delete my legit questions and comments.
              Gary, you said no trolling, but allow it
              Snow Miser brings up Heady, more than once, after you say no more, and those also remained.
              I replied to one of those, with a simple comment and it got deleted.
              Something else is going on here

  14. Michael Garner August 14, 2018 at 12:20 pm - Reply

    Pretty good rain here in Leavenworth

  15. Jeff August 14, 2018 at 12:23 pm - Reply

    Looking at the train camp pictures from this morning’s Chiefs practice. Looks like St Joe got what they were hoping for finally. The field was completely swamped.

  16. Michael Garner August 14, 2018 at 12:32 pm - Reply

    Today’s rain here is what makes this a weird drought. To be in an severe on the edge of extreme drought but yet have had rains like today. To few to many obviously but so many times in these droughts you don’t even get these kinds of rains. Thankful for every .10 or more.

    • LYITC41 August 14, 2018 at 12:49 pm - Reply

      Amen! That’s about what it’s been like for my area, just enough to keep everything going.

  17. Jordan August 14, 2018 at 2:06 pm - Reply

    Hopefully the sun helps destabilize the atmosphere and this next wave can build a bit, because it looks like garbage right now.

  18. Troy August 14, 2018 at 2:42 pm - Reply

    I ended up with 2.80 from this storm here in RP county without a single lightning strike. At times it was raining nearly 2″ per hour but it was very small drops. How often do we have a low move in from the South in August? I can’t remember this type of system in the summer.

  19. Richard August 14, 2018 at 2:59 pm - Reply

    Not looking good for our winter IF you believe the Euro

    “The latest ECMWF seasonal guidance indicates above normal snowfall across the Northeast for 2/3rds of winter 2018-19 [Dec, Feb] & a snow shortage for the Northwest. Jan looks like the best month for the Rockies”

    https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1029368111286300672?s=20

    • Three7 August 14, 2018 at 3:02 pm - Reply

      Normally, I’d side with Gary about the western trough in an El Nino, but I just don’t believe this will be a typical El Nino. If it’s central based, that forecast from the EURO would be favored, though we still gotta see how the LRC shakes out.

      • Gary August 14, 2018 at 3:29 pm - Reply

        Remember, and we now have a peer reviewed paper out there, and this is discussed. Any forecast of a weather pattern, and where troughs and ridges will be located, before October 15th have almost no chance of being correct. According to the LRC, a unique pattern sets up between October 1st and November 30th. By November, we have enough information to begin making that forecast. So, fun to look at, but good luck. I am sure that it will be forgotten in a few weeks when they show many other possibilities. In my paper, I discuss the work of Jerome Namais, who also stated that in November there is enough information to make an accurate forecast for the winter. BY NOVEMBER! I agree.

        • Richard August 14, 2018 at 3:46 pm - Reply

          “BY NOVEMBER!”
          So is there a reason you wait until well into December to make the winter forecast ?
          And this is a legit question.

          • Anonymous August 14, 2018 at 4:06 pm - Reply

            Yeah Richard. That’s as good as it gets right now. You don’t seem to be able to grasp this concept.

          • JoeK August 14, 2018 at 8:55 pm - Reply

            Richard,

            You may remember as Gary discusses this every year, he waits until November to give himself a chance to see how the pattern and cycle are going to interact with one another. I believe he used to put out a forecast earlier, but found himself having to adjust once he had an opportunity to see the pattern in action. hope this helps

            • Gary August 14, 2018 at 10:14 pm - Reply

              We “know” the pattern well by around mid-December, which is actually before the first official day of Astronomical Winter! The other winter forecasts come out way before the pattern is set. Waiting until December makes sense. But, at least having preliminary early outlooks would be a good strategy before the true mid-December winter forecast comes out. I think Weather2020 would be wise to set it up this way. And, BTW bloggers, I appreciate the participation and feedback.

              Gary

    • f00dl3 August 14, 2018 at 4:21 pm - Reply

      This would verify the other guy with the pattern has already established. The areas with below normal precip look identical to our current drought monitor.

  20. Richard August 14, 2018 at 3:53 pm - Reply

    Finally a nice rain !

  21. Jordan August 14, 2018 at 3:53 pm - Reply

    Sitting at .25″ so far. Just a couple of days ago, pretty much everyone was talking, again, about how this could be a widespread event and all the models were showing it and blah blah blah. Once again, the models/forecasts are showing to be totally unreliable more than a few hours out. The LRC is fascinating, but it would be nice to get a short-term forecast correct more than 8 hours out.

  22. Michael Garner August 14, 2018 at 4:25 pm - Reply

    Man that downpour may have only lasted 10 min but it sure caused some quick build of water on the streets. May not be a drought buster but is definitely a nice rainy day

  23. KS Jones August 14, 2018 at 6:18 pm - Reply

    Many have compared this year to 2012, so I checked my records. The drought of 2012 didn’t hit here until mid-June, and we got only 1.85″ of rain between June 15th & August 24th, which is a critical period for soybean development. The plants drop blossoms and pods during heat & drought stress, and rain came too late to overcome the damage.
    That year we had two fields of equal size; the relatively flat field yielded 37 bushels/acre, and the one with a gradual west facing slope yielded only 20 bu/ac, for an overall yield of 28.5 bu/ac. The 2012 drought was widespread throughout soybean country, so the low yields were offset by high prices, but that’s not the case this year. Here’s the breakdown for three months of 2012.
    June 10: 1.1″
    June 14: 4.25″
    June 23: 0.6″
    June 30: 0.3″
    June total 6.25″
    …..
    July 8: 0.15″
    July 12: 0.1″
    July 25: 0.1″
    July 30: 0.05″
    July total 0.4″
    …..
    August 1-2: 0.45″
    August 4: 0.1″
    August 24-25: 3.5″
    August total: 4.05″

  24. Mr. Pete August 14, 2018 at 7:07 pm - Reply

    So far I’ve measured a half inch here at Somerset and mission road. Enough to keep things green I guess.

  25. Blue Flash August 14, 2018 at 7:56 pm - Reply

    1.1″ here in Independence!

  26. Nate August 14, 2018 at 8:50 pm - Reply

    Wasn’t enough to clean the algae off my pond…drought and weather manipulation ops are still on

  27. Hockeynut69 August 15, 2018 at 7:01 am - Reply

    In my area just north of Liberty, we had close to an inch. These cells are amazing. You go one half mile down the road and its a different result. According to stormwatch, they only had about .6″ For once the soil is still wet a day after the rain event. The grass I do have is greening up. Hope everyone gets in the action in the next few opportunities.

  28. Anonymous August 15, 2018 at 7:24 am - Reply

    Gary:

    Happy Wednesday to you sir!!

    A quick check in from Washington Creek Valley just SW of Lawrence. Wound up with an inch yesterday; combined with last Tuesday that gives me 1.75 inches sin the past 8 days. The way htis summer has gone, that was like the Great Flood!!! LOL I’m very happy and lucky at the moment!!

    10% of cycle 7 and cycle 8 is all we have left….maybe this LRC can continue to give us chances and the .30-.50 every 4-5 days and we can limp across the finish line into the next LRC. Whatever the case, it will be interesting to follow. There will be chances; that is the ironic part of this LRC…its not like we haven’t had shots on the goal…even in winter…12 frozen precip events….they all just pretty much rim out. So it will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next 5-6 weeks.

    I would respectfully argue that we will make 1-2 more runs at 95 or higher before we hit September 13th….heat in September is not out of the ordinary here (1936 the first 12 days of September were above 100 if I remember correctly from records) and this LRC can bring the heat and that part of the pattern will be cycling back through at the end of this month into early September (as Three 7’s pointed out above)

    Fun times!!!

    Have a great Wednesday everyone!!

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

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