A Disturbance Heads Southeast Across The Plains

/A Disturbance Heads Southeast Across The Plains

A Disturbance Heads Southeast Across The Plains

Good morning bloggers,

Yesterday I titled the blog, “Trying to stay positive”.  Today, I am a bit hesitant to get excited about rain chances, but why. Take a look at this enhance satellite picture as of 7 AM:

Screen Shot 2018-07-17 at 7.05.39 AM

There were numerous thunderstorms early this morning, and a disturbance was tracking east-southeast across the plains.  This was heading right towards KC, and yet we have seen a few of these before. This area of thunderstorms was a bit stronger than most of the systems this year, and we are monitoring it closely.  The main part of the disturbance was located southwest of Salina, KS, and this is not in a good position for Kansas City to have the best chance of rain or thunderstorm redevelopment later today.

Screen Shot 2018-07-17 at 7.09.02 AM

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today:  Cloudy with a rain likely and maybe a few thunderstorms.  The chance of rain is 80%.  High: 80°
  • Tonight:  Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms.  Low:  68°
  • Wednesday:  Partly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers & thunderstorms.  High:  85°

Let’s monitor this current area of thunderstorms, and the disturbance that is causing it.  Have a great day!

Gary

2018-07-18T08:39:09+00:00July 17th, 2018|General|89 Comments

89 Comments

  1. Snow Miser July 17, 2018 at 7:46 am - Reply

    I had a dream last night we got snow – in July! Not a lot, just a trace in some spots, but it was snowing. LOL!

    • folkchick July 17, 2018 at 4:45 pm - Reply

      My son had a dream about snow last night as well. What does that mean? lol. It’d better not snow in July or anytime soon!!

  2. hoopsA1 July 17, 2018 at 7:54 am - Reply

    i give it a lucky 7% chance of it making to the metro with a heavy sprinkle

  3. Mr. Pete July 17, 2018 at 8:43 am - Reply

    That’s a big system and looking at the radar it would appear to me to be arriving earlier than later.

  4. Farmgirl July 17, 2018 at 8:46 am - Reply

    Yawn….same old thing, different day. It’s summer in KC.

  5. LYITC41 July 17, 2018 at 9:00 am - Reply

    Hope I’m wrong but that’s probably going to die on our doorstep.

  6. Trevor July 17, 2018 at 9:03 am - Reply

    Looks like it’s already starting to weaken, unless you’re south

  7. Real Humedude July 17, 2018 at 9:13 am - Reply

    HRRR has this pegged to die on our doorstep. It is what is guys, a strengthening drought especially into MO. I do not see this breaking down, only thing that breaks down is our rains chances as every system leaves us predominantly dry. There may be some random storm development off the various outflows later, but it will be a precious few that get rain I fear. Stay positive guys, we only have 3 more months of this pattern

  8. Snow Miser July 17, 2018 at 9:35 am - Reply

    Even if we don’t get much rain, at least the clouds are keeping things cool.

    • Gary July 17, 2018 at 10:21 am - Reply

      I just updated the forecast to an 80% chance of rain and highs near 80 degrees. Now, let’s see if it holds together. It may only be 0.01″ but it will likely rain. We are still appearing to be in the weakest area of this system. The NAM has new generations of thunderstorm later tonight.

      Gary

      • REAL HUMEDUDE July 17, 2018 at 12:09 pm - Reply

        I don’t think you could find a model with worst performance than the NAM right now it’s just terrible. I’ve watched it swing-and-miss on set up after setup I honestly I’m struggling to find a time when it’s when it’s been right it’s been wrong every time it’s so sad

  9. Jason July 17, 2018 at 10:25 am - Reply

    My parents live West of McPherson, Ks or SW of Salina. They have struggled to get rain for a few years now. Since last Friday, the have had 5.25″ of rain.

  10. Jason July 17, 2018 at 10:55 am - Reply

    Weakening fast

  11. Jordan July 17, 2018 at 11:03 am - Reply

    Storms are quickly weakening, and looks like their signature “split” is starting to form over Alma, Kansas. LOL @ “This may be the week we get some significant rains.”

  12. MikeL July 17, 2018 at 11:20 am - Reply

    I lost count of how many times this year we’ve seen a wall of water to the west of us fall apart just as it is getting here.

  13. REAL HUMEDUDE July 17, 2018 at 11:22 am - Reply

    And it’s on its death march towards KC……….Gary you officially jinxed it I’m afraid
    Lol

  14. Trevor July 17, 2018 at 11:31 am - Reply

    Is the chance that’s showing up tonight the one that was for Wednesday or is this a new chance?

  15. Fredd32 July 17, 2018 at 11:38 am - Reply

    It actually looks like the Northern section will sink into the metro this time instead of splitting around us……might be wishful thinking though.

  16. Bsmike July 17, 2018 at 11:42 am - Reply

    How in the world is that even possible!!! Smh 🤦🏼‍♂️

  17. REAL HUMEDUDE July 17, 2018 at 11:53 am - Reply

    Looking more and more likely Metro won’t even get a single drop!!!
    And the last living part of the MCS is going to go way south of my farm, more like Pittsburg KS. What else is new?
    Hume,Mo – currently the epicenter of 2018 drought

    • Jordan July 17, 2018 at 12:00 pm - Reply

      Jeff keeps saying the northern part of this disturbance should sink down over the metro, but it looks like it’s going to barely skim us to the north on the radar.

  18. Richard July 17, 2018 at 12:06 pm - Reply

    Yeppers
    It is splitting
    Wow it looked promising an hour ago
    Unless more develops later ?
    But at least it is cloudy and cooler ! Glass half full !!!

    • REAL HUMEDUDE July 17, 2018 at 12:08 pm - Reply

      That’s just keeping us nice and stable so that we can’t have any development later this afternoon it’s literally one reason after another why we can’t get storms around here and it’s nothing that looks to change anytime soon

  19. f00dl3 July 17, 2018 at 12:10 pm - Reply

    HRRR shows storms redeveloping around the city 5-8 PM.

  20. Mr. Pete July 17, 2018 at 12:10 pm - Reply

    Gary the rain just died!!!! Wow

  21. Snow Miser July 17, 2018 at 12:36 pm - Reply

    Yep, looking pretty pooflacious.

    • Richard July 17, 2018 at 1:30 pm - Reply

      pooflacious lol !

      Is Gary going to update it again.. to zero % ?

  22. Anonymous July 17, 2018 at 12:55 pm - Reply

    Wow, that’s really remarkable.
    Once again…and for about the fifth or sixth time since May…an MCS has split apart and died just west of KC. It’s as if an undetectable and unmeasurable dome of high pressure sits right over the metro and destroys anything that approaches.

  23. Craig July 17, 2018 at 12:56 pm - Reply

    Wow, that’s really remarkable.
    Once again…and for about the fifth or sixth time since May…an MCS has split apart and died just west of KC. It’s as if an undetectable and unmeasurable dome of high pressure sits right over the metro and destroys anything that approaches.
    Amazing.

    • NoBeachHere July 17, 2018 at 1:30 pm - Reply

      Me Quasi P. Ridge at our service.
      Idk really, it’s the only that make sense, every thing that comes into it dies.

  24. Bsmike July 17, 2018 at 1:29 pm - Reply

    Looking like it’s building cumulonimbus to Nw here in Lee’s Summit Grass Pad.

  25. Richard July 17, 2018 at 1:37 pm - Reply

    According to accuweather we get “a break in the rain in 12 minutes” !
    What rain ?? Lol !
    Still cloudy though, so maybe no rain, but we are not baking !
    Glass half full !!

  26. Mike Holm July 17, 2018 at 2:04 pm - Reply

    I look at that drought map that you posted last week— I can’t help but think that those storms dried up because it went through the heart of the extreme drought area. Is that possible?

  27. DanT July 17, 2018 at 2:46 pm - Reply

    So not our year… poof goes the rain.

  28. hoopsA1 July 17, 2018 at 2:52 pm - Reply

    looks like rain is redeveloping just NW of the city and moving towards the metro

  29. Adam July 17, 2018 at 2:54 pm - Reply

    It’s raining enough downtown to remind us that rain is still a thing that happens.

  30. snowflakeparkville July 17, 2018 at 2:58 pm - Reply

    2:58pm, (very) light rain in Parkville! There is some hope!

  31. Larry July 17, 2018 at 3:13 pm - Reply

    Rain fell apart before reaching the dome over Lawrence. Nothing here again. Over 11” below normal in NW Lawrence for the year.

  32. REAL HUMEDUDE July 17, 2018 at 3:20 pm - Reply

    Areas west of Wichita that just got a heavy round of storms are now getting storms redeveloping on backside of MCS where it should be an area of sinking air. WHAT GIVES? Yet they keep getting round after round out there regardless if the atmosphere got worked over or not! How does it keep raining in KS but can’t make it so state line? It then blows up just soon as it passes into SW MO. I could rip my own dick off and see how far I could throw it right now I’m so disgusted with the situation. Seriously weather? How can you be so intolerable!
    I got a tiny shower, prolly .01″
    I fully expect to get missed tomorrow. Gary, i would be hesitant to put any chance of rain over 30% until we truly get out of this pattern, regardless how good models look it isn’t manifesting. Rant over, emotionally exhausted….

    • Roger July 17, 2018 at 3:35 pm - Reply

      Hutchinson, KS is in a donut hole. I swear, 10-15 miles to our north, east, and south have seen 3-5 inches of rain in the last 7 days. Hutchinson checks in at 0.93!!!

  33. Michael Garner July 17, 2018 at 3:42 pm - Reply

    Nice rain here in Leavenworth.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE July 17, 2018 at 4:12 pm - Reply

      You guys keep getting hit there! Lucky duck , you must be living right lol

      • Michael Garner July 17, 2018 at 6:05 pm - Reply

        We have had some good ones but some big misses too. It sure isn’t like 2012 for sure but there is several trees that look stressed here. Not complaining as it can always be worse, like 1934. Don’t know if the higher dew points this summer have helped or not. 2012 was a dry heat summer compared to this summer. Droughts both years for sure this year just seems like a weird drought.

  34. Blue Flash July 17, 2018 at 3:56 pm - Reply

    Heavy shower over KCI, that should assist if there are any fuel leaks today….

  35. Snow Miser July 17, 2018 at 4:17 pm - Reply

    That thing needs to edge south to give my yard a drink.

  36. Jordan July 17, 2018 at 4:22 pm - Reply

    Once again, looks like I’m going to miss the storm by less than a mile. This is $@&*!?@ stupid. That’s been the past four or five that have done this.

  37. Weatherby Tom July 17, 2018 at 4:23 pm - Reply

    Raining buckets at my house now, and has been for awhile, FINALLY, first heavy rain I’ve seen in a month. Hope it’ll last

  38. Bsmike July 17, 2018 at 5:09 pm - Reply

    Can we seriously not get anything in Blue Springs 🤬

  39. Joe July 17, 2018 at 5:39 pm - Reply

    Heavy rains at scheels in Overland Park…at least an inch worth thus far

  40. Lisa Lu July 17, 2018 at 5:51 pm - Reply

    Gratefully, we are getting a very nice soaking rain in OP near 119th/Antioch. Had a good downpour for 20-30 minutes. Seems to be letting up a bit now.

    • Gary July 17, 2018 at 5:53 pm - Reply

      I am certain it is approaching 2″ in spots. It’s about time, but here on the Plaza it was still dry as of almost 6 PM.

      Gary

  41. Jordan July 17, 2018 at 5:55 pm - Reply

    Nothing but spitting in north-central Wyandotte. Another whiff for us. Gary, am I ever going to get any measurable rain?

  42. Kurt July 17, 2018 at 5:55 pm - Reply

    Seriously not sure how much everyone including me and Humedude have a right to complain until you travel the US-36 corridor and the counties on either side from St. Joseph out east into North Central Missouri and also up in parts of Andrew County Missouri, those areas are drought stricken. Me, I just continue to water with a sprinkler and buckets anything to try and keep green. We’re talking total crop losses an sell of of partial or entire herds of cattle in some areas.

    Too bad again this rain can’t focus on the areas that need it the most and not the urban core of concrete

    • Jordan July 17, 2018 at 6:08 pm - Reply

      We have 50 acres inside the 435 loop that need rain. About half of our corn was unharvestable, our tomato plants are dying off, fruit trees are stressed, etc. so don’t jinx me, Kurt! Lol just kidding, I know I complain a lot, but this is our first year investing this amount of time/money into a larger operation, and this is really discouraging.

      • Jordan July 17, 2018 at 6:09 pm - Reply

        What’s really odd is how southern Wyandotte and Parkville seem to keep getting hit, but our little 2-mile island just keeps getting whiffed.

  43. Snow Miser July 17, 2018 at 6:09 pm - Reply

    This is unbelievable. I can tell it’s starting to fizzle out *just* before it gets to me. If I get a tenth of an inch I’ll be thrilled.

    • Snow Miser July 17, 2018 at 6:39 pm - Reply

      Now it’s coming down … OK. If it did this for the next hour it might be an OK amount.

    • Snow Miser July 17, 2018 at 6:58 pm - Reply

      Coming down pretty good now. Not a downpour but a decent paced steady rain. Hope it lasts!

    • Snow Miser July 17, 2018 at 7:31 pm - Reply

      Turned out I ended up in a pretty good spot after all (a few miles SE of the stadiums). An arc of heavier ran from about Blue Springs to OP was centered right over me, and has stayed in the same spot for a while.

  44. sedsinkc July 17, 2018 at 6:09 pm - Reply

    Not even 0.01 inches so far today in the Northland at my location.

  45. snowflakeparkville (actually west of parkville but whatever) July 17, 2018 at 6:13 pm - Reply

    Southern Platte County got hit really hard from about 4:45-5:45. I have no idea how much rain it was, but I was driving and struggling to see the lines on the road clearly.

  46. Richard July 17, 2018 at 6:21 pm - Reply

    BUCKETS !!! Olathe got BUCKETS FULL at 5 pm !
    Wow it was really coming down. Much like what we got Saturday, only his lasted longer.
    Nice. Very nice

    • Richard July 17, 2018 at 6:22 pm - Reply

      *this lasted longer

  47. Farmgirl July 17, 2018 at 6:48 pm - Reply

    Boohoo, no rain again for pastures and crops in southern Miami county. Sure hope it’s our turn soon.

  48. Bsmike July 17, 2018 at 6:52 pm - Reply

    Okay I’m sorry. It’s pouring in BS springs now. 🤭 Thank you Lord 🙏🏻

  49. DaveC July 17, 2018 at 6:54 pm - Reply

    Still dry in Grain Valley

  50. Kerrie July 17, 2018 at 7:03 pm - Reply

    Barely reached .20 here just south of Smithville @ 435 and 169. In recent days I’ve watched bands of beautiful radar colors and even heard some thunder last evening, but keep getting missed. I don’t believe I’ve had rain that made it through the oak tree canopy since the first few days of June. I’m just in the mode of keeping flowers and the vegetable garden alive and will worry about the lawn later.

    Hume, please say that big area to the south hit your farm tonight!

    • REAL HUMEDUDE July 17, 2018 at 7:11 pm - Reply

      Nope, nothing
      The farm is in extreme northern vernon,co. It’s literally on the bates/Vernon line
      All that rain has been in northern Bates county this time. It is a wet drought lol, it’s raining in places but seems to rain in same places over and over and ignores same places over and over. Almost like there’s a pattern? Lol
      Good luck up there

  51. Arvadaboy July 17, 2018 at 7:13 pm - Reply

    Gary- during the winter we had prolnged periods of real cold and some times of warmth. Do these occurrences translate into the periods of high temperature? I expected periodic cold snaps, but seems the clear and cold of winter translate to hot and clear of summer? Your thoughts

    • Gary July 17, 2018 at 7:28 pm - Reply

      It’s a really long answer, but quite simply we are in the cooler part of the pattern right now from January and April. I need a lot more time, and less distraction to go deeper into your question. The rain right now is WONDERFUL.

      Gary

      • DaveC July 17, 2018 at 7:42 pm - Reply

        Gary, don’t brag too much on the news tonight about the Rain, there are still a lot of us, East of town and up north that still got nothing in the rain department and it’s still extremely discouraging.. 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁

  52. Supercell July 17, 2018 at 7:25 pm - Reply

    1.93 in gauge at 165th and Quivira. Almost an inch on Saturday and now this. Boom! Jackpot for south OP

    • Gary July 17, 2018 at 7:28 pm - Reply

      And, there are more chances!

  53. Snow Miser July 17, 2018 at 7:36 pm - Reply

    Looks like the NE area of the metro around Liberty was the unlucky party today. Looking at the weather stations around me, seems I got about an inch, with a little bit more to go.

    This rain had the ambiance of a fall storm, with light wind, not raining too hard, and little thunder and lightning. Nice.

  54. WeathermanKumke July 17, 2018 at 7:58 pm - Reply

    3.64 inches here at TopGolf off College/Nall

  55. sedsinkc July 17, 2018 at 7:59 pm - Reply

    0.04 inches was the final tally for today near the I-29/35 split. July total now 0.29 inches.

  56. FDRLincoln July 17, 2018 at 8:12 pm - Reply

    Nothing in western Lawrence. I haven’t had a good rain in over a month. I have been watering since the 2012 drought almost killed my oak and cypress trees and I’d rather not repeat that, so things are green in my yard, but yards that haven’t been watered nearby are dormant, with trees and bushes now showing stress.

  57. Doug July 17, 2018 at 8:19 pm - Reply

    1.75″ near 143rd and Switzer. Add that to the 1.4″ over the weekend I am feeling better about things, even bought a lottery ticket this evening–feeling lucky!

  58. f00dl3 July 17, 2018 at 8:19 pm - Reply

    Once the lightning stopped I rode my bike. It felt so good to ride in the rain!!!

  59. f00dl3 July 17, 2018 at 8:23 pm - Reply

    Oh yeah 1.5″ in Lenexa near old town. 2.75″ in the last week. Chipping away at that deficit. Or barely enough to get by once we get back into the drought part of the pattern :S

  60. Hockeynut69 July 17, 2018 at 8:25 pm - Reply

    Nope nada zilch nothing just north of Liberty.

  61. Weatherby Tom July 17, 2018 at 8:33 pm - Reply

    .55″ here at Weatherby Lake. I’ll take it, with hopefully more tomorrow…

  62. Tdogg July 17, 2018 at 9:15 pm - Reply

    Biggest rain ever…a LRC home run!

  63. Snow Miser July 17, 2018 at 9:16 pm - Reply

    I noticed the Belton/Raymore area was getting a lot of rain, but this is ridiculous!
    https://www.wunderground.com/weather/pws%3AKMOBELTO14
    7.45 inches!

  64. DaveC July 17, 2018 at 9:32 pm - Reply

    Grain Valley finally got in on the party tonight. Been raining for about 2 hours now. *whew* relief!!

  65. Snow Miser July 17, 2018 at 9:44 pm - Reply

    Both the HRRR and the 3km NAM are showing another round early in the morning, and it looks like it might hit the NE part of the metro more, so maybe Liberty will get in on the action later on:
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2018071801/hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_11.png
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2018071800/nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_12.png

    • Kurt July 17, 2018 at 10:18 pm - Reply

      Neither looks promising for the extreme drought areas

  66. Kurt July 17, 2018 at 10:02 pm - Reply

    We just need to drought to end up in northern Missouri, 2 years of this is enough already and the farmers up here are really hurting

  67. Ravi Kondapalli July 17, 2018 at 11:28 pm - Reply

    Welcome sights and sounds to see the rain finally pouring and lasting for a while. Good nice rain storm. Loved it.

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