It Finally Reached 100 Degrees At KCI Airport

/It Finally Reached 100 Degrees At KCI Airport

It Finally Reached 100 Degrees At KCI Airport

Good morning bloggers,

The last time it reached 100° was on September 8, 2013. The long streak ended on Thursday, and it may reach 100 again today.

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Downtown KC soared to 103° and Lawrence, KS got up to 104°.

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Now, we can put this long streak to rest and concentrate on the rain chances.  The drought monitor was updated yesterday by the Climate Prediction Center, and you can see that the drought is strengthening over our local area near KC:

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The red areas show Extreme Drought  What is just incredible is that Omaha, to the northwest of KC, and St. Louis, to the east of KC, are not considered in any drought conditions at all. St. Louis has had nearly 25 inches of rain this year compared to under 10 inches of rain near Lawrence, KS.

Rainfall Forecast From The European Model Ending Monday Evening:

Screen Shot 2018-07-13 at 7.00.25 AM

The set ups for thunderstorms are again atypical, and difficult to explain.  There are fronts, weak upper level disturbances, a stronger storm around mid-week, and thunderstorms will develop.  As you can see above, the rainfall forecast from the European Model, and other models are all over the place, shows around an inch of rain over the next four days, ending Monday.  Confidence is still a bit shaky, so let’s see how it sets up. There may be a few isolated thunderstorms again today.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today:  Mostly sunny this morning with some big cumulus clouds building this afternoon.  There is a 5% chance of a thunderstorm later this afternoon.  High: 100°
  • Saturday:  Partly cloudy with a 40% chance of a thunderstorm. High: 93°

Thank your or spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Click on the blog over on the Weather2020 site and read the comments from the bloggers. We have been having some great weather discussions as we share in this weather experience. Have a great day. It is FRIDAY!

Gary

2018-07-15T22:19:19+00:00July 13th, 2018|General|86 Comments

86 Comments

  1. Snow Miser July 13, 2018 at 7:37 am - Reply

    Glad we finally broke that record.

    Now, the next record I wanna break this winter is, number of consecutive days of measurable snowfall.

    • Lary Gezak July 13, 2018 at 7:47 am - Reply

      Or that 3″ snowstorm streak. That’d be nice.

  2. Kathy July 13, 2018 at 9:17 am - Reply

    Something that surprised me is the drought in parts of New England. So, how did that happen? Seems like they had a wet winter, right? Also, if memory serves me correctly, it seems like in the year following a drought, we get plenty of moisture to make up for it. So, here’s praying for and crossing fingers for a very wet winter and 2019. Gary’s post yesterday about El Nino was encouraging….hope it pans out.

  3. Richard July 13, 2018 at 9:24 am - Reply

    Gary
    Thanks !
    I hope I can share this one without anyone saying I am betraying you or the LRC. Because I am not.
    This is Doug Heady, in Joplin, blog from today. (He is part of wx2020 team, correct ? So not really a competitor.
    I thought it might be of interest here to share this. He does say the new pattern is still 2 months away.
    But he already “knows” what this winter, next Spring and summer are going to be like !??

    “Look at next week. The upper level high that is over us now pressed back to the west.  This will allow upper level waves to pass through with scattered showers and thunderstorms, but more importantly, this will drop our temperatures into the 80s for a few days which we greatly need.  Now this is right on track with the Heady Pattern.  However, the new cycle has already began.  I am working on hard on nailing this down which I promise will have down in the next 3 weeks.  I have a model that I have developed that allows me to pick out the cycle very early ahead of the new pattern developing which is still two months away.  I know to you guys this means nothing, but to me it is ground breaking.  I can already tell you the Fall will have bigger temperatures swings with much more rain.  The winter won’t be as cold as the last winter, however we will have much bigger storms systems and snow.  Also next spring will be much more active with a lot of severe weather events.  Next summer won’t be near as hot and we will have a lot more rain through the summer.  I have so much more to come on all of this.  Check out my long range forecast below and have a great Friday and weekend! ”
    -Doug

    http://weather.koamtv.com/2018/07/13/friday-blog-relief-from-the-heat-long-range-forecast/

     

    • Three7s July 13, 2018 at 9:33 am - Reply

      My guess is he’s assuming the same thing as Gary said yesterday. He’s predicting an El Nino and, with that, a higher likelihood of a long-wave trough developing in the Rockies, which is exactly what we need!

      • Three7s July 13, 2018 at 9:34 am - Reply

        We won’t know until the new pattern sets up, of course, but if that long-wave trough does show up out west this fall, that would be huge.

        • Lary Gezak July 13, 2018 at 7:12 pm - Reply

          I like what I’m hearing…

    • Snow Miser July 13, 2018 at 9:55 am - Reply

      Thanks for the link Richard, I hope he’s right!

      “I know to you guys this means nothing, but to me it is ground breaking. I can already tell you the Fall will have bigger temperatures swings with much more rain. The winter won’t be as cold as the last winter, however we will have much bigger storms systems and snow.”

      • Richard July 13, 2018 at 10:09 am - Reply

        Of course that is for the Joplin area. What Joplin xperiences often times we don’t. Especially when it comes to storms.
        But I found it interesting that he said he has a model that he has developed …..

        Wx2020 is in the process, or has a model already too, right ??

        Looking back at some of his archived blogs now just to see what his thoughts are. Again, it is Joplin ! So not a competitor.

        • Snow Miser July 13, 2018 at 10:17 am - Reply

          That’s true, but I presume (hope?) Joplin is close enough that the differences won’t be that big. Especially concerning the snow.

          • Richard July 13, 2018 at 10:23 am - Reply

            I think Joplin is just in the right spot where storms dive down south from the Rockies….thus missing KC

        • Richard July 13, 2018 at 10:21 am - Reply

          I enjoy a detailed blog. He puts it out there. Live radar helps too.
          Would be nice to have radar with this one.
          And longer blog writeups.
          I am hungry for some hope that this heat will not continue into September.

          • JoeK July 13, 2018 at 5:49 pm - Reply

            But…..his long range forecasts are wrong more than they are right. I have tracked his forecasts for some time now and the cycle length does not set up this early, he makes adjustments to the cycle length what seems like every year in October, right about the same time frame the LRC sets up. Just my two cents

        • Gary July 13, 2018 at 6:11 pm - Reply

          He doesn’t have any model he has developed. He will never be able to show it to you, because it doesn’t exist. And, Richard, what is up with you? You have seen our model dozens of times. Have a great weekend.

          Gary

          • Richard July 13, 2018 at 7:21 pm - Reply

            Gary
            Yes. Thats what I said above. Wx2020 already has a model. I just do not remember seeing it that often.
            So, ok then, Doug is lying about having a model.
            Why is he a contributor to wx2020. Was I mistaken about that ?
            Either Doug, or somebody else that you have mentioned, is a contributor. Help me out here. Who is it.

            You have a great weekend too

  4. Real Humedude July 13, 2018 at 9:46 am - Reply

    We need 4 corners storms to have big winter storms around here, we will have to see what the next pattern brings. If we cant get storms to dig into the SW we wont have much action around here.
    I had 2 different cells headed right towards the farm yesterday and they both died on my doorstep and reorganized just west of me and gave them a nice downpour over same locations that got downpours last week. I have been the unlucky spot every time lately…….really need some rain by Sunday as the corn is slipping away fast now in 100F afternoons and heat is just baking out every last trace of moisture in the soil.

    • Richard July 13, 2018 at 10:13 am - Reply

      Hume
      Agree !
      I have said this for YEARS. Our biggest snows have akways come from the 4 corners.
      I used to tell family when storms were pounding the 4 corners that we need to prepare. And sure enough.
      Problem is something seems to have changed. Either they don’t get those storms much anymore, or when they do, they get diverted and go south of us. Something has changed.

      • Scott July 13, 2018 at 10:19 am - Reply

        I agree, something has changed. I am no expert at weather but we do not get storms from the four corners anymore.

        • Michael Garner July 13, 2018 at 12:54 pm - Reply

          Winter of 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 we had several storms that took that kind of path. It’s just good old Kansas weather. History shows make heat and droughts with major floods and cool weather

          • TDogg July 13, 2018 at 1:53 pm - Reply

            It has to be the wind farms….

  5. Mike Holm July 13, 2018 at 12:34 pm - Reply

    The drought map looks identical to the winter precipitation patterns—La Niña.

    • Three7s July 13, 2018 at 2:59 pm - Reply

      Agreed.

  6. KS Jones July 13, 2018 at 12:40 pm - Reply

    NWS
    The Flash Flood Watch has been extended to include all of southeast Nebraska. Thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and overnight . . . with rainfall totals reaching of 1 to 3 inches, locally higher amounts possible.
    https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/uppermissvly_loop.php

  7. Snow Miser July 13, 2018 at 2:20 pm - Reply

    I’ve noticed today that they’re adding a whole lot more frames to some runs of the HRRR than usual. Is this recent or did I just not notice it before?

    • REAL HUMEDUDE July 13, 2018 at 3:03 pm - Reply

      It is a recent upgrade, it’s run has been expanded and might even include a few new selectable parameters

      • Snow Miser July 13, 2018 at 3:26 pm - Reply

        Thanks. I noticed they had the HRRRX for a while on Tropical Tidbits, but that’s been gone now for a few weeks. I presume that was a test for some expanded runs on the regular HRRR. Didn’t notice if they added the expanded runs on the HRRR as soon as the HRRRX went away, or if it’s just in the last day or two.

  8. Mason - Basehor July 13, 2018 at 3:43 pm - Reply

    Re: the LRC and the tropics…

    The big LRC forecast is for a gulf hurricane around September 1.

    That is about 47-48 days from this weekend!

    Doesn’t that mean there should be a big gulf hurricane this weekend too????

    • Gary July 13, 2018 at 4:24 pm - Reply

      No, it does not. The forecast is for a reflection of the pattern within each cycle, but it is rare for hurricanes in July, even though we just had two. The hurricane forecast is for around September 1. Until we forecasted Harvey last year, no one has ever forecast a hurricane before it had formed in the history of forecasting. We are expecting it to form.

      Gary

      • Michael Garner July 13, 2018 at 4:41 pm - Reply

        I would respectfully argue that comment. I watch Joe B from weatherbell daily over the years and when he was with AccuWeather and would hear him say a tropical storm or hurricane would form within an area and time frame before the models even indicated and he would say why he thinks it would happen. When it wouldn’t he would explain why he was wrong.

  9. Jason July 13, 2018 at 4:14 pm - Reply

    All this rain out West, and we probably won’t get a drop

    • KS Jones July 13, 2018 at 5:29 pm - Reply

      I was driving through the pasture earlier this afternoon (25 miles north of Manhattan), and from the bluff tops at 2:20 PM I began seeing lightning and rain falling off to the south. Then it began raining here at 3 PM. Got just shy of 0.3″ from that round which lasted about one hour, and it cooled down 20° to 75°. That might be why the the cells that are all around us dissipate before they reach us now, but the forecast indicates we should pick up an additional 0.8″ overnight.

      • KS Jones July 13, 2018 at 6:38 pm - Reply

        Now it has cooled down to 70° and we’re getting another bout of rain.

        • REAL HUMEDUDE July 13, 2018 at 8:14 pm - Reply

          I can’t buy a drop at the farm right now. I need some of your luck! I hope that keeps up, I know you need it

  10. Jordan July 13, 2018 at 4:52 pm - Reply

    The 7-day forecast on KSHB doesn’t have the 40% chance of rain tomorrow that Gary’s video forecast does, and it has it at 100 again. I’m assuming the rain chances are already going POOF?

    • Michael Garner July 13, 2018 at 5:14 pm - Reply

      The 7 day graphic is off. Meaning what is says for “Saturday” is really today (Friday) so look at the Sunday and consider that Saturday. Hopefully that makes sense

      • Jordan July 13, 2018 at 5:47 pm - Reply

        Ahh, gotcha. Thanks for the info.

  11. snowflakeparkville July 13, 2018 at 6:01 pm - Reply

    Well, there it goes. It was fun while it lasted. Hopefully we break the 3-inch snow one soon!

  12. Jordan July 13, 2018 at 8:27 pm - Reply

    Okay, so we know we’re not going to get any rain out of this system. What’s the over/under on where it splits to go around us before it gets here, and where it reforms to our east? My money is on Council Grove, and reforming near Jefferson City.

    • KS Jones July 13, 2018 at 9:32 pm - Reply

      WeatherUnderground predicts KC will get 0.51″ tomorrow afternoon.
      The rain is nearly over here out west. The sky was bright red at sunset, so considering the old “red sky at night –sailor’s delight” would indicate it is indeed clearing. Got 0.69″ altogether, and because it came down over an extended period of time, it is far more beneficial that the three toad stranglers we got in June.

      • Jordan July 13, 2018 at 9:41 pm - Reply

        I’ll believe the rain forecast when I actually see it rain lol. I am glad the local meteorologists finally learned to temper their expectations with this pattern, though. I was getting fed up with the 60%-80% chances and then not getting a drop.

        • Gary July 13, 2018 at 9:59 pm - Reply

          Well, the chances are much lower than that. I am on now, and showing the rain near Troy, KS, just west of St. Joseph.

          Gary

          • Jordan July 13, 2018 at 10:46 pm - Reply

            Oh trust me, I’ve been watching this rain chance for the last week-and-a-half lol. Thank you for keeping the chance low from the beginning, and not getting my hopes up, even when the models were showing it right over us. I’ve pretty much resigned myself to the fact that my tomatoes are probably dead by August, and the corn we are going to be able to harvest is going to be pretty pathetic.

          • Jordan July 13, 2018 at 11:04 pm - Reply

            Forgot to mention I was talking about the WeatherUnderground forecast for tomorrow when I said I’ll believe it when I see it. I was leaning toward the .01″ you mentioned on the 6:30pm news. This pattern sucks.

            • KS Jones July 14, 2018 at 6:52 am - Reply

              WeatherUnderground hasn’t backed off of their prediction for rain in KC this afternoon. They did revise the amount down from 0.51″ to 0.41″, but the chances they cite are 68% at 1 PM, increasing to 76% at 2 PM. They show an additional 0.05″ through Sunday morning for a total of 0.46″. Then they predict KC will get an additional 0.66″ on Wednesday through Thursday.
              We caught a few more sprinkles before the system cleared overnight, and ended up with 0.72″, which brought our YTD total to 15.93″.

              • Jordan July 14, 2018 at 9:18 am

                I’m sure they will continue to revise that to a trace amount by 1PM.

  13. Nate July 13, 2018 at 8:57 pm - Reply

    We need something coming up from the Southwest, that’s the only way we’ll get anything good

    • Mr. Pete July 14, 2018 at 12:29 am - Reply

      Check out the radar.

  14. REAL HUMEDUDE July 14, 2018 at 7:48 am - Reply

    Getting dry slotted…..ugg

    • Jordan July 14, 2018 at 9:23 am - Reply

      Another letdown. I know Gary kept the chances for rain low this entire time, but it’s still a punch in the gut to have to hear about a rain “chance” for 10 days through all of that heat, and once again, get missed.

    • Jordan July 14, 2018 at 9:25 am - Reply

      I was gonna say, “How long before they take the chance out for Wednesday?”, but it looks like they’ve already dropped that chance by 10% to 40%. Here we go again.

      • REAL HUMEDUDE July 14, 2018 at 9:42 am - Reply

        There’s still a vort lobe to our SW, chance it could lite up again in next couple hours but I’m pretty much giving up myself. Even if we do get rain probably less than 1/2″ and that wont save the corn or keep pastures from going dormant. We need inches and inches, then a couple inches after that.

        • Richard July 14, 2018 at 9:52 am - Reply

          The oppresive heat will come back by weeks end.
          How did we end up with this heat since May 1st ? What caused the cold fronts to stall. This one will be very short lived like the other one

        • Jordan July 14, 2018 at 11:22 am - Reply

          That vort lobe needs to start firing off some thunderstorms, or this complex is going to miss us to the west.

  15. Tdogg July 14, 2018 at 11:12 am - Reply

    LRC

    Lonely
    Richard
    Complains

    Here’s hoping HumeDude’s Shawnee “farm” aka yard gets rain soon.

    • Richard July 14, 2018 at 1:57 pm - Reply

      dogg

      KNOCK IT OFF you sorry piece of sh**
      I’ve had enough of your pathetic trolling

  16. f00dl3 July 14, 2018 at 11:36 am - Reply

    BUT WAIT —-

    HRRR shows heavy thunder around KC by 1-2 PM.

    • sedsinkc July 14, 2018 at 12:27 pm - Reply

      Storms firing near/over Olathe right now.

  17. Hockeynut69 July 14, 2018 at 12:24 pm - Reply

    Poof once again. One of the other stations actually increased their rain chances today to 70%. I am in Ames Iowa this weekend. Pretty good round of storms yesterday. They already had a lot of standing water in fields from a wet spring. Amazing how a few hours drive changes everything.

  18. sedsinkc July 14, 2018 at 12:35 pm - Reply

    I just have a “feeling” N KC will get missed or just a light shower today. South side is looking promising tho…

  19. Hockeynut69 July 14, 2018 at 12:40 pm - Reply

    Storm blossoming just NE of Olathe.

  20. Trainman July 14, 2018 at 12:46 pm - Reply

    Complete and total down pour at woodland and k10

  21. f00dl3 July 14, 2018 at 1:08 pm - Reply

    Just poured near Old Town Lenexa, got a quick 30 min 0.95″

    • sedsinkc July 14, 2018 at 1:13 pm - Reply

      Lucky you. I’d take 1/3 of that here N of the River. We’re extra crispy. Still think we’ll get little to nothing here today.

    • KS Jones July 14, 2018 at 1:22 pm - Reply

      WeatherUndergrpund predicts rainstorms will be in that area until 5:45 PM
      Here’s their link to Overland Park that shows a 59% chance they’ll get 0.77″ of rain. They say it’s raining there now.
      https://maps.wunderground.com/q/zmw:66204.1.99999

  22. WeathermanKumke July 14, 2018 at 1:15 pm - Reply

    Got 1.02 from the first storm in west Olathe. Watching these cells move into JoCo to deliver us with more rain 🙂

  23. Anonymous July 14, 2018 at 1:28 pm - Reply

    As I feared, radar trends show activity along 435 loop in Johnson County is shunting off to the east and not moving north toward the north side of KC. Yuck I hate being right most of the time, sometimes (like today)….

  24. sedsinkc July 14, 2018 at 1:28 pm - Reply

    As I feared, radar trends show activity along 435 loop in Johnson County is shunting off to the east and not moving north toward the north side of KC. Yuck I hate being right most of the time, sometimes (like today)….

    • Jordan July 14, 2018 at 1:32 pm - Reply

      We’re right next to the river just south of Parkville in Wyandotte County, and looks like we’re going to get screwed again, too.

      • RickMcKC July 14, 2018 at 2:42 pm - Reply

        The WYCO split gets the Northland again!

    • Jordan July 14, 2018 at 1:36 pm - Reply

      Yeah, radar looks like those storms aren’t rotating back with the rest of the system for some reason.

  25. Mr. Pete July 14, 2018 at 1:30 pm - Reply

    Getting great rains here in Prairie Village – steady for about 20 mins now! Yay!

  26. Heat Miser July 14, 2018 at 1:31 pm - Reply

    Where is Saturday’s blog?

  27. Adam July 14, 2018 at 1:43 pm - Reply

    Been pouring in Gardner for several minutes. Became very windy also. Lot’s of lightening.

  28. Richard July 14, 2018 at 2:00 pm - Reply

    It was pouring an hour ago !! Now we get more ! And lightning/thunder.
    Very dark outside

  29. Rockdoc July 14, 2018 at 2:07 pm - Reply

    Pouring cats and dogs here in Prairie Village. Another cell looks to be headed this way, then maybe clearing up. Hope it does so I can go swimming.

  30. Kai July 14, 2018 at 2:13 pm - Reply

    Streets are already flooding in Independence and radar looks like it’s training right over us.

    • Kai July 14, 2018 at 3:01 pm - Reply

      Nvm.

  31. Anonymous July 14, 2018 at 2:28 pm - Reply

    As much as I the rain is needed it really needs to fall east of st Joseph in the extreme drought areas in crops and pasture for farmers and not over the urban core of Kansas City

    You get street flooding and run off, so what if your yard goes dormant, when this makes or breaks farmers

  32. Blue Flash July 14, 2018 at 2:40 pm - Reply

    Right at 1/2 inch from the first wave here in Independence. Beautiful soaking rain, didn’t waste a drop!

  33. Jordan July 14, 2018 at 2:58 pm - Reply

    Nothing in northern Wyandotte, and of course it’s starting to split and rotate back to the west less than a mile from me. I’m so sick of this crap.

  34. Anonymous July 14, 2018 at 3:06 pm - Reply

    Just did a quick mow of the weeds in case it rains. My gf got a load of dirt for her yard last year to fill some holes and the dirt was obviously full of Queen Anne’s Lace seeds. We have a bumper crop of those wherever that dirt was placed. All mowed down now. Watching a dark cloud just to my west, maybe my light shower for the Northland is imminent?

  35. sedsinkc July 14, 2018 at 3:07 pm - Reply

    Just did a quick mow of the weeds in case it rains. My gf got a load of dirt for her yard last year to fill some holes and the dirt was obviously full of Queen Anne’s Lace seeds. We have a bumper crop of those wherever that dirt was placed. All mowed down now. Watching a dark cloud just to my west, maybe my light shower for the Northland is imminent?

  36. Getmbuck July 14, 2018 at 3:15 pm - Reply

    Olathe 131sr and Blackbob have .94 rain and 75 degrees. Will see if the next cell coming up I 35 has anything left but will take what’s in the bank

  37. sedsinkc July 14, 2018 at 3:23 pm - Reply

    Yay! Liquid from the sky! (just a little)

  38. Jordan July 14, 2018 at 3:48 pm - Reply

    Got just enough rain to make it messy when we hand water the acre we don’t have any type of irrigation in, but not enough to actually water any of the plants. Thanks, Mother Nature! You suck this year!

  39. Rodney July 14, 2018 at 4:00 pm - Reply

    3 inches in Eudora with crazy Lightning!

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