It Came Close To 100 Degrees Yesterday

/It Came Close To 100 Degrees Yesterday

It Came Close To 100 Degrees Yesterday

Good morning bloggers,

Today may be the day that KCI Airport finally ends an almost five-year streak of below 100 degrees.  We will look into the pattern which has been a difficult topic to explain and describe as we have suggested in this blog many times in this pattern.  Discussing KC weather is a challenge in some summers as the weather can be the same from day to day in boring patterns. This pattern is just so difficult to describe, and it has been a theme from last October all the way through the fall, winter, spring, and now summer.  It is this years LRC that is leaving us in this challenging place to do this, and I will be welcoming the new pattern with open arms when it arrives in less than three months.  For now, it is more of the same, but at least some chance of rain is showing up.

2

Yesterday was almost the day. The temperature at KCI Airport jumped to 99 degrees. The streak continues as we make another run at 100 degrees today, and maybe Friday.  Here is the 7-day forecast as I showed it on 41 Action News last night:

1

Rainfall forecast through Sunday morning from the NAM model:

4

If you look closely at the KC region, we have anywhere from less than 0.10″ to as much as 3″ of rain on some of the models by Sunday morning.  A series of disturbances, some connection to the monsoon out west, and a couple of cold fronts are combining to bring us some of these rain chances.  We will look into the chances a bit more in-depth in tomorrow mornings blogs, and on 41 Action News and KSHB.com today and tonight.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go over to the Weather2020 blog and join in the conversation.  Have a great day.

Gary

2018-07-13T07:28:51+00:00July 12th, 2018|General|70 Comments

70 Comments

  1. KCHog July 12, 2018 at 8:14 am - Reply

    What about downtown? Are you Platte City’s #1 weather team? I just don’t get it.

  2. Jason July 12, 2018 at 8:25 am - Reply

    COME ON RAIN!!!!!

  3. Adam July 12, 2018 at 8:26 am - Reply

    Yeah I posted this on Tuesday’s blog. ‘
    Adam July 11, 2018 at 2:49 pm – Reply
    I don’t know about the rest of the area but every day that it’s been advertised it’s going to make a run at 100 it has hit and exceeded 100 downtown. This summer has been miserable so far. I’m already ready for fall.’

  4. CC July 12, 2018 at 8:32 am - Reply

    Start taking your own readings, Kearney is different than downtown temps as well.

  5. Brian July 12, 2018 at 8:37 am - Reply

    I’m happy to see Sunday and Monday’s temperatures come down from the previous 7-day forecast. I’m ready for some relief to the heat – any rain would just be an added bonus.

  6. NoBeachHere July 12, 2018 at 9:14 am - Reply

    I hope for the sake of the stupid run of no 100 degree days ends today. Really tired of reading about the streak. I know it’s being negative but there is nothing historic or for memories sake about the streak ending or going. There is something to talk about as far as rain which is great and needed. So for the love of us bloggers, Mother Nature do us a favor and off yourself with 100 degrees at KCI today, please!!!

    • Blue Flash July 12, 2018 at 11:44 am - Reply

      I’m going to charter a jet to sit there and blow exhaust toward the weather instruments until it gets to 100. Fraid its not going to happen today though with the dew points rising all morning. It’s the corn plants transpiring their last bits of moisture…..

  7. Three7s July 12, 2018 at 9:26 am - Reply

    You’ll welcome a new pattern in October until it places a big fat ridge right on top of us, just like this year, which we’ll then be stuck with all year.

    • Richard July 12, 2018 at 9:41 am - Reply

      True
      Last year Gary and all of us were so ready for the new pattern.
      Be careful what we wish for.
      At least last years LRC was not this hot from May 1st, we had an actual Spring and we had just enough rain at just the right times to keep things green.

      • Gary July 12, 2018 at 10:50 am - Reply

        There is no way it will be worse than this year. We are also on a 4 year stretch of bad patterns. We will be due for a better one, and El Niño is likely developing this winter, and this provides a better chance of the anchor trough, as described in the 1940s by Jerome Namais, and what I have called “Long term long-wave troughs”, to be west of KC over the Rockys or west. We just need it to set up in the right spot. The LRC will tell us the way in three to four months. So, there should be some optimism.

        Gary

        • Richard July 12, 2018 at 12:03 pm - Reply

          Gary
          A weak El Niño won’t be good for snowfall, correct ?

          And speaking of 4 yrs of bad patterns, I thought earlier on, like in April, you said this was an exciting pattern.

          • Bluetooth July 12, 2018 at 12:59 pm - Reply

            Yes, Richard, I remember that. I also remember the hype associated with this “new” pattern way back in October and November of last year….

            • Blue Flash July 12, 2018 at 1:02 pm - Reply

              Same but different…..

        • Joe July 12, 2018 at 3:44 pm - Reply

          Potential for more moisture but drier

  8. REAL HUMEDUDE July 12, 2018 at 9:34 am - Reply

    This IS the new LRC pattern. We never had this anti cyclone in earlier cycles, this is something new. My biggest fear is that next year will be much worse than this. This pattern hasn’t been great, but at least it does provide chances at getting just enough to squeak by. The worst drought patterns offer you nothing in terms of rain chances and usually consecutive 100F days, could be Alot worse than this although this pattern does suck

    • CC July 12, 2018 at 9:54 am - Reply

      If this is the new LRC pattern then how come it hasn’t stayed wet, especially when we had a wet October. Since your theory of it setting up in June, we should have constant moisture all over

      • Richard July 12, 2018 at 10:19 am - Reply

        cc
        Thats the point Hume is trying to make. We had moisture in Oct, but not getting it now.
        Instead, we have anti-cyclone heat creating machine, so therefore this must be the new 2018-19 LRC.

        • Gary July 12, 2018 at 10:51 am - Reply

          We only had moisture in October along and east of I-35. We got faked out.

          Gary

        • NoBeachHere July 12, 2018 at 11:02 am - Reply

          Looking back, that quasi ridge didn’t set up till November, hence the dysfunctional weather. I mean it was there, just not in a position that’s leaving us high and dry. It waffles a bit but I believe that’s where these high pressure domes developed from. The quasi created the conditions and from there these ridges were born.

          I have spent a lot of time researching The who and where’s and how this summer version came to be. Not much info but I did find is the SW CONUS was above average in temps in winter, already dry that allowed certain features to get established in the atmosphere. As one forecaster put it, “the dynamics of upper atmospheric flow are shunted east in part because of the RRR(ridiculously resilient ridge) which in part is a product of LaNina. That created a small wave or slanted ridge in the flow aloft.

          It kind of made my head hurt reading it, best I can gather is like it’s a standing wave in a river or stream. Conditions underneath the flow causes a disruption of the flow aloft, in a river or streams case, a standing wave of such.
          So in all fun, can we flood out the uninhabited parts of the sw or blow up the continental divide to change the flow? 🤔 no lol but it might be fun trying.

        • CC July 12, 2018 at 12:24 pm - Reply

          Makes no since, last year everyone will say they had a wet pattern except for Kurt. Last summer was pretty wet until August then in slowed down so if dude is right then we should be done with this pattern

        • Anonymous July 12, 2018 at 3:46 pm - Reply

          Doesn’t Heady say it begins to form this time of year?

      • Gary July 12, 2018 at 10:51 am - Reply

        The pattern sets up in October. This years LRC will continue through September.

        Gary

        • NoBeachHere July 12, 2018 at 1:44 pm - Reply

          Oh, I’m done with this pattern regardless of when a new one sets up. You can tell by the crankyness of comments these last few weeks. Gary, I think your great and I’ve where you tried to explain this dumpster fire of a pattern. I think the details are what your missing. Once you explained what a quasi permanent ridge is and could see it on the maps, what it was doing to storms, I understood. Even though we finally got a few fronts through for relief, I still have not been able to find why those vigorous fronts just stopped. You have not really provided an answer, if you don’t know, just say it, it’s ok. If people bag on you then they are being naive to their own perils lol. Anyway, so why now are fronts coming through when northern latitudes are warmer instead back in May and June when there was a boat load of cold air just sitting there?
          Seasonal variations can’t swing that big of a bat unless there really is something that changes up there that is an unknown variable.

    • Gary July 12, 2018 at 10:48 am - Reply

      Humedude,

      The anticyclone is there in other cycles, but farther south over Mexico and weak. During the summer as the jet stream retreats, heat builds up over the continents and the anticyclone forms. The favored position for the anticyclone will be near the 4-corners states. It still moves, weakens, strengthens as defined by the LRC. The anticyclones are quite predictable using the LRC. The good news about this pattern, and it is what we expected to happen, is that there is very little chance of these anticyclones shifting north and especially unlikely that they can last for more than a day or so over the Great Lakes. The pattern is always favorable for troughs to dig across the northern plains and Great Lakes, and this will likely prevent the long and disastrous heat wave this summer.

      Gary

      gary

  9. mmhmm July 12, 2018 at 10:20 am - Reply

    So, the LRC is not really a repeat of previous “cycles”, but rather a vague guide for forecasting. There is no real repeating pattern, the pattern is random. I think the LRC is full of holes, and needs a re-write looking at more detail instead of such a broad attempt at cycles that really aren’t repeating themselves. The weather is random, and will likely continue to become even more due to various changes at the surface, as well as aloft. In short, the current pattern sucks, and any long range forecast is a joke.

    • Gary July 12, 2018 at 10:42 am - Reply

      mmhmmm,

      The LRC is almost flawlessly perfect. The weather pattern is cycling regularly, almost as perfect as astronomical cycles, but because it is a fluid it oscillates. In Astronomy, today will be exactly 24 hours long, and the equator it will be perfectly 12 hours day and 12 hours night. In this 47 to 48-day cycle it is almost perfect, and likely centered close to that cycle length, but it oscillates due to the river of air through the troposphere, where we leave at the bottom of in the boundary layer near the surface (we both live at the surface), being a fluid. So, it may drift towards 45 or 44 days, or reach 50 or 51 days at rare times. So, it is not random at all. We are sharing with you the organization to what other meteorologists call chaos. It is anything but chaos. So, you state that this current pattern sucks, and any long range forecast is a joke. Maybe others, but not the ones emphasizing the LRC.

      Gary

      • Mason - Basehor July 12, 2018 at 11:33 am - Reply

        Aww, that’s not fair.

        When you call your theory “flawlessly perfect,” that’s where you loose people.

        Your winter forecast called for ~20” of snow. We got, what, 6 or 7”?

        The spring forecast called for below average temps and average precipitation. Instead, we had record HEAT and we’ll below average precipitation.

        In June, you called for a hurricane or tropical storm to form in the Gulf — Beryl — but the Gulf was entirely quiet.

        Your forecast for this week called for several cold fronts and rain chances and below average temps. It’s been the complete opposite.

        When you claim to be “almost flawlessly perfectly” in the face of these forecasts, you loose a ton of credibility.

        In your profession, all you have is reputation and credibility. This isn’t a good look for you, Gary.

        • Gary July 12, 2018 at 6:08 pm - Reply

          The point: The pattern is cycling and it is organized. The forecasts based on it are far from flawless. Sorry, I lost you, but I will stand behind that statement.

          Gary

      • Blue Flash July 12, 2018 at 11:34 am - Reply

        Everything in nature goes through cycles. The water cycle, the cycle of the seasons, the rock cycle, plate tectonics, etc. etc. So why would the weather be any different? We just don’t fully understand it yet. That’s what makes it interesting!

  10. f00dl3 July 12, 2018 at 11:36 am - Reply

    The LRC is great if your making a forecast based on just the 500 millibar level. The problem is, the atmosphere is 3D. Things that happen at the surface cause something known as mixing and that mixing is what can cause the anticyclone to build, thunderstorms to be abundant, low level jets, or cold air to force it’s way in rapidly.

    By the way – our wet drought just got upgraded to D2 / Severe Wet Drought.

  11. f00dl3 July 12, 2018 at 11:37 am - Reply

    The LRC fails to predict moisture evaporation and it’s impacts on our atmosphere.

  12. Heat Miser July 12, 2018 at 11:45 am - Reply

    Thank god, so tired of hearing it hasn’t hit 100 at MCI, even though it’s hit 100 multiple times all around it. It’s such an irrelevant stat, unless mabye you live at MCI.

    • TDogg July 12, 2018 at 1:31 pm - Reply

      Yes it is Heat.

  13. Jason July 12, 2018 at 12:05 pm - Reply

    Yep. I’m done with this weather. So done

  14. Mr. Pete July 12, 2018 at 12:13 pm - Reply

    Gary! Flawlessly Perfect!!

    • TDogg July 12, 2018 at 2:03 pm - Reply

      flaw·less·ly

      adverb
      in a manner free from imperfections or defects; perfectly.

  15. Blue Flash July 12, 2018 at 12:44 pm - Reply

    Towering cumulus showing up outside my window, but their vertical development seems to be very slow. Feeling the cap?

  16. Tdogg July 12, 2018 at 12:49 pm - Reply

    Flawlessly Perfect D2 Wet Drought!

  17. Snow Miser July 12, 2018 at 2:13 pm - Reply

    Still not 100 at MCI. Doesn’t look like it’ll make it there, either.
    https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/mo/kansas-city-international/KMCI/date/2018-7-12?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash

    Is their weather station in the shade, or something? One weather station nearby has 112!

    • KS Jones July 13, 2018 at 7:14 am - Reply

      Air temperature is always measured in the shade. Nonetheless, I’ve often wondered if they need to recalibrate their equipment at KCI.

  18. REAL HUMEDUDE July 12, 2018 at 2:19 pm - Reply

    Hey Tdogg….wanna hook up and have a few beers? I can show you what all is involved to keep my ranch going, and you can show me how stupid you are. Sound like fun?

    • Tdogg July 12, 2018 at 3:08 pm - Reply

      “Your” “ranch”?? Sure buddy. What part of Shawnee is your house/yard farm located.

  19. KS Jones July 12, 2018 at 2:34 pm - Reply

    It is currently 103° at the Lawrence airport.
    http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KLWC.html
    102° at the Manhattan airport and 96° here (25 miles north of Manhattan),

    • Heat Miser July 12, 2018 at 3:38 pm - Reply

      Yeah, I was about to report that but your beat me to it. Has it hit 100 at MCI…please god say yes.

      • Blue Flash July 12, 2018 at 3:46 pm - Reply

        Pop-up storm moving into KCI. That should kill our chances for 100 today…

  20. Adam July 12, 2018 at 2:38 pm - Reply

    Showing 110 on my weather underground app by the Financial District downtown.

    • Heat Miser July 12, 2018 at 3:38 pm - Reply

      lol…110

  21. snowflakeparkville July 12, 2018 at 2:39 pm - Reply

    Brief surprise rain shower west of Parkville a few minutes ago.

  22. Araignee July 12, 2018 at 2:47 pm - Reply

    Here in the northern part of Excelsior Springs, our trees are losing leaves. The trees on the bank of our pond have dropped leaves as they usually do in September, and the pond is full of them. Those trees are just about half bare. Its not every tree on the property of course, and plenty are still green enough, but its something I have not ever witnessed in the ten years of living in this house, even with the 2012 drought. Its strange to watch the leaves falling into the pond or to watch them swirl on the road as I drive, as if it was early fall. Obviously the grass is brown and dead, for the most part. Is anyone else having this issue of trees dropping their leaves? Like many other people we have already put the horses on hay, to save the pasture. One of the local hay farmers told me that he got about 50% the usual amount of hay this year, because it has been so dry up here. I think we have missed even the few storms that many of the other areas managed to have.

    • Richard July 12, 2018 at 6:29 pm - Reply

      Yes, trees are dropping leaves in Olathe too.

      The NWS put this out on Wednesday :
      “Drought conditions are worsening across northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas. But how do we put this year in perspective. 2012 was the latest very bad drought year in the region. Through July 10th 2012, KCI had developed a precipitation deficit of 7.45″. In 2018 the deficit is 6.26″ through July 10th. That’s a difference of just 1.19″. 2018 has been in deficit for a longer period of time, whereas 2012 developed very rapidly. Regardless, the region needs rainfall. This week’s hot conditions, with little to no rain expected, will only make things worse across the area. “

      So, in reference to that, I think trees are dropping their leaves this year, and this early, because we have been in precip deficit longer.

  23. Mattinleavenworth July 12, 2018 at 2:58 pm - Reply

    We got a nice little storm up here in leavenworth

  24. MattinLeavenworth July 12, 2018 at 3:08 pm - Reply

    Down to 82 degrees and the rain on the roads is causing so much steam it almost looks like fog

  25. MattinLeavenworth July 12, 2018 at 3:37 pm - Reply

    2nd rain cell just came through and rained buckets. Down to 77 degrees.

  26. Mike Holm July 12, 2018 at 3:51 pm - Reply

    Down to 89° in Parksville after a small shower—very small. I’m sure Gary is getting ready to update. It’s developing all over the place down south.

  27. Mason - Basehor July 12, 2018 at 4:02 pm - Reply

    Woohoo—all this fascination with the streak can finally simmer down; KMCI just topped 100.

    Gary’s going to need to find something else to talk about now.

    • WeathermanKumke July 12, 2018 at 4:04 pm - Reply

      At 3:35pm. KCI tappped 100 degrees. The streak is over

  28. Emaw July 12, 2018 at 4:37 pm - Reply

    It’s all good, Gary just showed his 7-day, rain this weekend and 80’s then 78/60 next Wednesday!
    I’ll believe the rain when I see it and the 78/60 has about as much of a chance as the Royals not losing 100!

    • Gary July 12, 2018 at 6:02 pm - Reply

      And, when it happens, what will you say?

      Gary

      • Emaw July 12, 2018 at 7:23 pm - Reply

        I will say you got it right and I will love it! 78/60 is perfect in my book. I just don’t think it’s going to happen.

  29. NoBeachHere July 12, 2018 at 5:03 pm - Reply

    So now it’s official, drop it. I’d may be inclined to get a count but I’m pretty sure many of us could care less about finally hitting the century mark. What I find interesting, hitting 100 made more news than the spotty TSorms moving through.

  30. Farmgirl July 12, 2018 at 5:17 pm - Reply

    Surprised the furry criiter forecast from this morning verified. Had a few brief showers in Linn county. Outflow boundary feels pretty good even if it’s short lived.

  31. Michael Garner July 12, 2018 at 6:00 pm - Reply

    Now that we finally did it, I won’t say what “it” is as many are tired of hearing “it”, but now that “it’” is done maybe now we can get a snowfall greater than 2.5 inches in a 24 hour period. Last time that happened was February 2014. Also will be interesting to see as KSHB has the lowest high temperature for next Wednesday, at 78. Another station has 81, another one has 87, NWS is predicting “near 87” (is 78 “near” 87?, just kidding). By the time next Wednesday gets here we are only a short 6 weeks till September. Yes September can get hot but chances of extreme long lasting heat are not as great. September is like March. March can get cold and snow but not like January, except this year.

  32. terry July 12, 2018 at 6:06 pm - Reply

    Well it’s the 1st time in 5 years that a hit a 100゚ at KCI airport. Everyone get ready for a wild and crazy Winter time get ready for some big snows.

    • Richard July 12, 2018 at 6:36 pm - Reply

      terry Its too soon to get excited about big snows.
      But we all can hope 😄

  33. Nick July 12, 2018 at 6:16 pm - Reply

    congrats on the 100F at KCI. not quite there here in St. Joe but still hot enough( we had ours in May :P) but now the grass looks like its about done, but we will likely get just enough rain this weekeend/next week to keep it alive in its misery, lol. looking forward to the cool break next week( probably a system like we had in late June where we were in the upper 60’s most of the day with drizzle) that will be nice before the heat comes back.

  34. Emaw July 12, 2018 at 7:28 pm - Reply

    I thought KCI was in St. Joe . . . 😉

  35. Richard July 12, 2018 at 7:45 pm - Reply

    Maybe since we skipped Spring, everything is one month early. .So this is our August ?
    Maybe fall will come early

    Gary
    Do you see any more of these extended heat waves ? If so, how many.

  36. Richard July 12, 2018 at 9:38 pm - Reply

    63 out of the last 71 days have been above normal temps.
    When will we get some lasting relief

  37. Matt July 13, 2018 at 12:39 am - Reply

    I’ve hit 100 degrees multiple times this year so that whole KCI streak everyone talks about I don’t get. I mean I do, it’s the official weather source for KC. 4 inches of snow in Olathe and 0 at KCI 40 miles away means Kansas City has zero snow for a winter, and that’s what goes on the record books KCI could be 97 and multiple cities could hit 102 all summer long in the area but 97 is the official temp and that’s what it is.

Leave A Comment