A Strong LRC Argument For It Getting Wet Next Week

/A Strong LRC Argument For It Getting Wet Next Week

A Strong LRC Argument For It Getting Wet Next Week

Good morning bloggers,

The weather pattern is cycling as described by the LRC.  We started this blog in 2002, and we began sharing my hypothesis with the bloggers, some of whom have been reading the blog from the start.  If you remember, I called it “the theory”, or my theory.  The early bloggers saw that there was something special about it and they suggested calling it the GRC, and around a week later a blogger suggested calling it the LRC. I didn’t really care what it was called then, and I said, “sure, we will call it the LRC”.   It never really mattered to me what it was called, but it obviously stuck, and we now know it as the LRC.  After 18 months, of work, 30 years of research, or really 70 years of research when adding in Jerome Namais from the 1940s to the 1970s, a paper was published called the Cycling Patterns of the Northern Hemisphere: 70 years of research and a new hypothesis. The new hypothesis is the LRC, or as it is called in the paper, the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis.

This years pattern:

This years LRC begin during the end of the first week of October.  That first cycle was as fascinating as every cycle has been so far, and we are now in the sixth LRC cycle.  This pattern will continue through September before a new and unique pattern sets up again in late September into that first week of October.  If you go back 47-48 day cycle times 5 ago, you come out to this comparison. Through the years we have shared 100s of examples like this one:

Cycle Comparisons Cycles 1 and 6

Cycle Comparisons Cycles 1 and 6 Final

Here we are in the almost summer version of the “same pattern, but different” as Gary England called it in 2009 when the LRC puzzle came into focus for him.  It is the same pattern, but it will differ depending on many different factors. The biggest factor is a seasonal difference in strength of the river of air flowing above us within the troposphere.  There is tremendous organization to the chaos, and the LRC showcases this organization.

The LRC Computer Model:

Screen Shot 2018-06-16 at 8.33.08 AM

I just checked our model for around 10 different zip codes around the United States, and to me it is quite obvious that the 47-48 day cycle is evident in this model output above. The orange line shows the LRC Projection. The green line shows the actual high temperatures. The blue line shows climatology, or the average high temperature. The pattern is quite obviously cycling regularly, and this computer model is verifying quite well. This is a forecast made from March, or a 90 day forecast.

There is a storm system, now being modeled by the GFS and European models, showing up in the middle of the nation next week. This storm is directly related to the late October storm system that formed into a Great Lakes upper low in October. This storm went through a major transition over the western plains into the Missouri River Valley in October, and it will likely go through a similar transition, but the June version this time.  This developing mid-week pattern would normally be quite wet at this time of the year.  And, look at this forecast from the GFS, with the European Model similar:

gfs_apcpn_us_40

This rainfall forecast over the next ten days shows 2 to 6 inch amounts. Now, if you live near KC we have been through this since October.  The pattern has found some way to only produce spotty higher amounts.  We will just have to see if it produces this time.  Have a great day.  Let’s see how the models come in today.  And, go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.  Have a great weekend.

Gary

 

2018-06-18T09:30:55+00:00June 16th, 2018|General|29 Comments

29 Comments

  1. Snow Miser June 16, 2018 at 10:01 am - Reply

    Lately I’ve been reminded by 2 Junes ago when we had a hot and dry June, and you kept saying we needed something to “break the ice.” Everybody’s lawns in June were turning brown, but then we got a lot of rain and everything turned back green again. Is this a similar situation now?

  2. DanT June 16, 2018 at 10:07 am - Reply

    Definitely going to need some rain after this hot and windy weather we are currently experiencing.

  3. Michael Garner June 16, 2018 at 3:10 pm - Reply

    KCI/MCI only reporting a high so far of 94. Will we get officially, not your back yard, but officially here, not St Joe, shorted of our first heat wave. If so that would be so funny to be short by one degree especially if tomorrow and Monday go above 95. Seriously, one degree, in my head I will say this was/is a heat wave unless Sunday and Monday fall a couple degrees short.

    • Snow Miser June 16, 2018 at 3:33 pm - Reply

      It’s definitely cloudier today than the last couple days. Some of the clouds, particularly to the west, look as if they’re thinking about turning into storm clouds.

  4. KS Jones June 16, 2018 at 4:40 pm - Reply

    If on June 21st this area north of Manhattan is supposed to enter a cycle similar to what happened after October 21st, that’s not good news. Our total October precipitation was 1.3″ above average, but it all came in the first 14 days. We had no rain at all in the second half of October and got only 0.22″ of rain in November.
    The latest forecast from WUnderground shows we could get 3.28″ of rain from June 18th through June 25th, with 2.14″ of that coming Monday night through Wednesday (June 20th).

  5. Larry June 16, 2018 at 5:00 pm - Reply

    The NWS QPF graphical and text forecasts for the rain event(s) next week are starting to back off the total QPF amounts by about 50%. The latest QPF forecast shows 1-2″ in the Kansas City metro area. I’m holding out hope that Gary’s LRC this year can come through for us. Lawrence is more than 10″ below normal.

    • Nate June 16, 2018 at 6:14 pm - Reply

      never would have guessed…it will be down to 0-.5″ before long

  6. REAL HUMEDUDE June 16, 2018 at 6:23 pm - Reply

    I think some areas around the metro will pick up a couple big rains next week but they will be localized like most of the events have been this year. Better Hope You get lucky next week!

  7. Richard June 16, 2018 at 6:49 pm - Reply

    Looks like it won’t be an official heat wave.
    This time.
    But who cares. Not me.
    It is still too hot for June

  8. Blue Flash June 16, 2018 at 6:52 pm - Reply

    It hit 95 today at KCI at 2:38, so its a heat wave.

    • Richard June 16, 2018 at 7:08 pm - Reply

      Thanks Blue
      So what was the official high

      • Richard June 16, 2018 at 7:09 pm - Reply

        I mean, it must have gotten hotter after 2:38

        • Blue Flash June 16, 2018 at 8:02 pm - Reply

          95 was it. Probably the increased cloud cover kept it from going higher.

  9. Heat Miser June 16, 2018 at 7:46 pm - Reply

    lets be honest, 95 and its a heatwave, one day at 94 and its not. Its the same thing in all ways in reality

    • Blue Flash June 16, 2018 at 8:23 pm - Reply

      It’s especially irrelevant because no one lives at KCI!

  10. Richard June 16, 2018 at 8:39 pm - Reply

    Winner winner chicken dinner St Joe hit 97

  11. Richard June 16, 2018 at 8:54 pm - Reply

    From someone (not me ) who enjoys digging up stats :

    “Today is the 15th day with highs in the 90s this year in KC. That ties for 3rd most (through 6/16) with 1953. The record is 1934 with 19…then 1952 with 16. For reference in 2012 there were 7 through 6/16.”

    So, no maybe this year will not be a repeat of 2012.
    Or maybe it will. Will see

    • Blue Flash June 16, 2018 at 10:19 pm - Reply

      Let us pray that it is not a repeat of 1934 or the early 50’s!

  12. Nick June 17, 2018 at 12:43 am - Reply

    Well we are in our second “heat wave” of the year here. not only that but we have hit 97F three days in a row here in St. Joe! can we go for 4? sadly even if we do, we won’t win anything other than sweat, lol 😛

  13. f00dl3 June 17, 2018 at 12:14 pm - Reply

    The weather is so boring right now that no new blog is needed today. lol.

    • Richard June 17, 2018 at 12:42 pm - Reply

      JL has a new one

      • KS Jones June 17, 2018 at 3:54 pm - Reply

        And as usual, Joe posted some interesting stats.

        • Richard June 17, 2018 at 5:54 pm - Reply

          Always
          He is the king of stats
          We don’t get that here unless a blogger posts them
          What we get here is how the pattern repeats, but no factual stats.
          This blog is all about the LRC. And the kshb blog.
          Sometimes we need more, especially when the weather is boring

  14. Roger June 17, 2018 at 1:17 pm - Reply

    Salina has already hit 100+ degrees 6 times this year! 3 other times it’s hit 99! The average high still isn’t 90 yet!

  15. Tyler June 17, 2018 at 2:38 pm - Reply

    So if I was to hypothetically be planning a garage sale for weekend of 6/22 … Bad idea?

  16. Tdogg June 17, 2018 at 6:14 pm - Reply

    Lonely
    Richard
    Complains

    • Richard June 17, 2018 at 6:25 pm - Reply

      Nice try dogg
      Have a good one
      Go with God

  17. KS Jones June 17, 2018 at 7:23 pm - Reply

    A lot of rain across the nation, but so far, the system streaming through Kansas has stayed well west of here.
    http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=default&region=sln&animate=true

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