The Second Half Of June Will Be Interesting

/The Second Half Of June Will Be Interesting

The Second Half Of June Will Be Interesting

Good morning bloggers,

“Interesting” is something we have had almost non stop with this pattern. “Frustrating” is what we have experienced if you live near KC.  So, Interesting and Frustrating has been the theme since this pattern started in October.  There have been many times, from October through today, where we have had models shown some exciting set ups producing lots of rain, potential snow, and exciting weather set ups for us weather enthusiasts.  Next week is yet another one of those times that shows a set up featuring a stalling front that may produce the rain we have been waiting for, or it may very well end up leaving us in the dust again?   Take  a look at the next few days, and how it is lining up:

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The front will likely stall and gradually weaken between Monday and Wednesday.  It is certainly interesting, and the chance that it will be frustrating is high. As we have thought many, many times however, is that maybe this one will be different. And, maybe it will?

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Mostly sunny, hot, and humid. South winds 10-20 mph. High: 95°
  • Saturday:  Mostly sunny, hot, and humid. South winds 5-15 mph.  High: 95°
  • Sunday:  Mostly sunny, hot, and humid. South winds 5-15 mph.  High: 95°
  • Monday:  Mostly sunny, hot and humid. A few afternoon clouds building up, but the chance of rain is less than 10%.  High:  94°
  • Tuesday:  Partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms.  The chance of rain increases to 50%.  High:  85°

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06z (1 AM) GFS Rainfall Forecast:

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We will learn more about this pattern over the weekend.  Have a great day. Go to the Weather2020.com and join in the conversation or just share in this weather experience as we all learn together!

Gary

2018-06-16T15:21:09+00:00June 15th, 2018|General|26 Comments

26 Comments

  1. Blue Flash June 15, 2018 at 7:29 am - Reply

    July or June?

  2. LYITC41 June 15, 2018 at 7:49 am - Reply

    A pretty fair chunk of the lower 48 appears to be in some varying stage of drought-almost half the country from the looks of that map. That’s pretty sad. Most people like/love summer, this is another reason I don’t.

    • KS Jones June 15, 2018 at 9:50 am - Reply

      Most of that is abnormally dry (D 0), and only 23.27% of the nation is in an actual drought category (D 1-4)
      http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/jpg/20180612/20180612_total_trd.jpg
      Hopefully, the latest updated forecast from WeatherUnderground will come true. They are predicting this area (25 miles north of Manhattan) will get 2.87″ of rain from Monday (6/18) to Saturday (6/24).

  3. Richard June 15, 2018 at 8:50 am - Reply

    Gary
    Your timeline temps don’t match with what you said on Sports radio tgis morning.
    You gave higher temps on the radio. I know one or two degrees don’t matter though, right ?

    • Heat Miser June 15, 2018 at 11:36 am - Reply

      dude, you have too much time on your hands

      • Richard June 15, 2018 at 11:51 am - Reply

        Dude
        It seems you do too just to make comments like that.
        Add something or ask something dude.
        Or just move on

  4. Anonymous June 15, 2018 at 8:54 am - Reply

    The last time we had this setup, we got squat out of it for rain

  5. REAL HUMEDUDE June 15, 2018 at 10:35 am - Reply

    I want to know what the Euro is saying now? Yesterday the Euro said we had the wet solution but GFS wasn’t on board, now the GFS is on board but not sure what Euro is thinking? I would think if every major model is showcasing a stalled front, we should expect it to verify, right? We have a system working up from Gulf, interacting with a stalled front in a moist humid environment, how does that not produce widespread rains? Have I asked too many questions? Have I lost my mind?
    Happy Fathers day weekend all you dads out there, I hope you get treated by your family on Sunday. If not, treat yourself! Bass are crushing buzzbaits / topwater early in the morning before sun rises, then they quit by 7am. GO hit something early this weekend before it gets hot and enjoy at least part of the weekend cause the heat is going to be miserable, peace y’all

    • LYITC41 June 15, 2018 at 12:19 pm - Reply

      I’ve learned to not put a lot of stock into the models or to just ignore them altogether. They will make you crazy if you let them. There’s just too much that goes into the science of meteorology, too many variables, expected and unexpected, for the models to be consistently accurate. I kinda believe that they’re not going to get any better than they are currently. That may be naïve but for something that so consistently underperforms, why haven’t they been able to fix or improve them?

    • Troy Newman June 15, 2018 at 12:51 pm - Reply

      The Euro has 2-5″ of rain over most of KS with 1-2 over N MO. There is not much over E OK and AR into extreme Southern MO. The Euro has had a similar solution for a couple days now and was the first to show the abundant moisture. I think the GFS is flawed in the summer. It has way to high of temperatures and constantly shows Tropical Storms in the Gulf. None of the models are that great but that is one that I have a hard time with this time of year.

      You can’t ask too many questions. We have all probably lost our minds. Going to Glen Elder with my Dad and sons to troll for white bass and walleye on Fathers Day.

      • REAL HUMEDUDE June 15, 2018 at 5:03 pm - Reply

        Troy – soak that up brother, we don’t get many days to fish with 3 generations on the boat. Enjoy every second

  6. f00dl3 June 15, 2018 at 11:02 am - Reply

    I mean if you took the LRC at face value it makes sense – we are in the 3rd warm spike and we should then have 1 month below normal temps after this warm spike ends. LRC suggest we would have spring-like temps as we go into Summer.

    • Richard June 15, 2018 at 11:57 am - Reply

      But Gary said the cold pushes don’t get this far south, they come to a screeching halt one state north of us.
      The cold fronts are there just like before but lose their punch.
      I am curious too what makes them stop.

      • C.C June 15, 2018 at 12:23 pm - Reply

        Okay sooooo it goes with the lrc like Gary says as well. But they just have not made it this far south, hopefully mondays front ends that streak

    • TDogg June 15, 2018 at 11:58 am - Reply

      Lets hope that is the case.

  7. Rockdoc June 15, 2018 at 12:08 pm - Reply

    Hopefully this link will work, but here is the EURO rainfall total through Sunday June 24th. The rain comes in on Tuesday with several chances of scattered showers/storms throughout the week and into next weekend. St Joe area looks to be good with ~3 inches, and just further to the east it could be even much higher. Kansas City also looking good with a couple of inches. Better yet is the area out near Salina and Manhattan, and to the south where they have been in a world of hurt. Fingers crosses you guys! Remember, this is 240 hours out so don’t get all attached to the totals.

    Too bad Tropical Storm Bud will not make it into the Four Corners region and eastward to put out that massive wild fire near Durango, Colorado.

    https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018061500/kansas/acc-total-precipitation/20180625-0000z.html

  8. Craig June 15, 2018 at 12:19 pm - Reply
  9. f00dl3 June 15, 2018 at 1:49 pm - Reply
    • Blue Flash June 15, 2018 at 2:15 pm - Reply

      We’re about as likely to have a big snowfall as a big rainfall.

    • Nate June 15, 2018 at 2:33 pm - Reply

      That will gradually work itself down to zero

    • Michael Garner June 15, 2018 at 3:03 pm - Reply

      That map looks like the last 3 winters.

  10. Tdogg June 15, 2018 at 2:38 pm - Reply

    Oh baby a snowstorm? Terry and Robert Racy are ready for some white stuff!

  11. OlatheWildcat June 15, 2018 at 3:05 pm - Reply

    The drought map should be no surprise to anyone. Look at a satellite image of the United states and the topography/vegetation and dry zones match up with the drought monitor. This is nothing new. https://www.worldmapsonline.com/images/giclee/satellite_image_maps/us_enhanced_physical_giclee-borders-labels_lg.jpg

    • Richard June 15, 2018 at 4:40 pm - Reply

      Exactly. Thanks for that map
      We rarely hear about drought east of the Mississippi
      It is what it is

  12. Joe June 15, 2018 at 6:11 pm - Reply

    I’m going with the LRC….hot and dry for KC

  13. Snow Miser June 15, 2018 at 7:55 pm - Reply

    Wunderground forecast for my zip code says 2.15 inches through next Sunday. *crosses fingers*

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