If we are going to avoid a drought, then………..

/If we are going to avoid a drought, then………..

If we are going to avoid a drought, then………..

Good morning bloggers,

If we are going to avoid a drought, then a few things must happen and soon.  As we cycle into the summer version of this years pattern, the jet stream will continue to weaken and lift north. The jet stream is caused by temperature contrasts.  As we move through late spring and summer, the huge contrasts during the winter from 30 below zero (northern USA plains at times) to 90 degrees (over the south at times), become as little as 60s to 100s. The contrast in temperatures will be as high as 120 degrees or more during the middle of winter, while this contrast may be as little as 30 degrees during the peak of summer.  The jet stream is at its strongest in late January and early February, and then at its weakest in late July into early August.  As the temperature contrast weakens, the jet stream will lift north and weaken, and this is why tornado season ends in mid-June. Oh, there will still be severe weather risks and an occasional serious tornado set up during the summer, they just get fewer and farther between.

As this process happens, the same pattern may produce different results. This pattern, since it set up in October, has been so consistent in our area, and this is why St. Joseph, MO is in the drought region, and this expands down to the southwest, despite recent rains.

Here is that drought monitor:

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This graphic shows that Kansas City is partially in moderate drought and other areas are not even in the abnormally dry category.  There is even a Severe Drought category just north of KC.  The drought is considered exceptional over parts of Oklahoma, and extending west into New Mexico over the southwestern states that are usually pretty dry.  I live on the south side of the city, and it is getting very dry, but everything is still green. We have time to get out of this drought and as I titled the blog, “If we are going to avoid a drought, then a few things must happen and soon”. What are these things that need to happen? It needs to start raining and not just in spots. There are chances showing up, and the pressure is on each chance. During the winter we had enough days with measurable snow to produce seasonal snow totals in the 20 inch range, but we know what happened. Only 7.7″ of snow despite having a dozen snowfalls.  The same thing is now happening in the spring.  The rains have come, but they haven’t been that heavy.

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Kansas City Weather Forecast Timeline:

  • Today: Mostly sunny with a few afternoon clouds. Light winds from the south around 0-10 mph.  High: 90°
  • Tonight: Mostly clear with thunderstorms well west and north of KC.  Low:  68°
  • Thursday: There is a 30% chance of early morning thunderstorms, the sunny with a few afternoon clouds. South winds 5-15 mph.  High: 90°
  • Thursday night:  Increasing clouds with a 30% chance of late night thunderstorms.  Low:  Near 70°
  • Friday:  Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of morning thunderstorms. Then, partly cloudy with light south winds. High:  90°

We would usually have a much higher chance of thunderstorms with a pattern like the one we are in at the moment.  I was trying to decide what percentage to put into these forecast periods, and I decided on 30%.  The models have not helped much at all, as has been the case in our region all year long.  Here is the latest rainfall forecasts from the 00z (7 PM) model run of the GFS:

gfs_apcpn_scus_40

  1. The GFS model has 2 to 4 inches of rain as you can see above
  2. The Canadian model has 3 to 6 inches of rain in the next ten days
  3. The European Model has had less than 1/2″ over the next ten days

So, one more time, If we are going to avoid a drought, then a few things must happen and soon.  There is a chance that we will receive enough rain to erode the drought out of our region, but the pressure is on during these last two weeks of spring.  Maybe I will be able to up these rainfall probabilities soon.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  If you visit the Weather2020.com blog, then you can join in the conversation.  Have a great Wednesday.

Gary

2018-06-07T17:00:40+00:00June 6th, 2018|General|20 Comments

20 Comments

    • Gary June 6, 2018 at 7:45 am - Reply

      I give it a fighters chance. We are moving through the part of the pattern that has produced before. These next two weeks are directly related to the mid to late October parts of this years LRC, and it produced with five inches of rain. The northeastern edge of the drought area is near Kansas City, so, this may very well be the area that gets hit before summer settles in.

      Gary

  1. C.C June 6, 2018 at 7:24 am - Reply

    I mean I believe I can answer that myself but didn’t you say the gfs model has been the most accurate this year

  2. LYITC41 June 6, 2018 at 7:34 am - Reply

    GFS has not been that accurate and this is for a two week stretch, I wouldn’t put too much stock into it. I’d love to believe it and I’ll love it even more if it verifies but don’t count on it. These models are lousy that far out.

  3. SnowDays June 6, 2018 at 12:28 pm - Reply

    Gary, thanks for the update! As an owner of a small lawn business, I am hoping things come together otherwise it’s going to be a slow July and Aug

  4. Roger June 6, 2018 at 1:37 pm - Reply

    I have to admit, the 12Z GFS is VERY wet.

  5. C.C June 6, 2018 at 1:55 pm - Reply

    Snow I’m with you there, yards are burning up, just been getting timely rains right now but we definitely need a soaker! I think we really need 2+ inches of rain to get the grass perked back up

  6. Snow Miser June 6, 2018 at 2:49 pm - Reply

    I want snow.

  7. KS Jones June 6, 2018 at 7:45 pm - Reply

    It has a long way to go, but with luck, maybe some of the activity up north will drift south.
    http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?region=sln&animate=true

  8. Nate June 6, 2018 at 8:18 pm - Reply

    Any “new data” rolling in??

  9. Michael Garner June 6, 2018 at 8:41 pm - Reply

    Gary do you still think that next week forecast from the 1 weather app will have a chance to be true?
    Zip code 66048 shows this—
    June 10
    Many Weather Changes 72°F / 52°F
    The week will start very warm and humid with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms as weak disturbances drift across the Plains. Then a stronger system and cold front will track west to east across the region, bringing a good chance of rain and thunderstorms for two to three days. Some thunderstorms may be severe with very heavy rain. Eastern sections of Kansas and Nebraska and all of Iowa and Missouri have the best chance for the heavy rain. After the system and front it will be much cooler with little chance of rain.

  10. Mr. Pete June 6, 2018 at 9:42 pm - Reply

    That rain to the north gonna roll in tonight??

    • Snow Miser June 6, 2018 at 9:54 pm - Reply

      Sure looks like it will, doesn’t it?

      Models are being completely useless right now. Neither the HRRR nor the 3km NAM are remotely close to what’s happening out right now.

  11. Mr. Pete June 7, 2018 at 12:00 am - Reply

    Poof

  12. Matt June 7, 2018 at 12:57 am - Reply

    Me Pete there is a large signature on the radar heading our way what are you talking about

  13. Tim June 7, 2018 at 1:27 am - Reply

    It sure is trying to make its way down to KC area!

  14. Fredd32 June 7, 2018 at 5:32 am - Reply

    Maybe the ones out west?

  15. NoBeachHere June 7, 2018 at 6:12 am - Reply

    Man, that’s a lot of rain west of us. Looks like St Joe got a little this morning. Here is to hoping for an all day soaker !

  16. Tim June 7, 2018 at 7:02 am - Reply

    Talk about “poof” with the line that came south last night…LOL!

  17. Mason - Basehor June 7, 2018 at 11:15 am - Reply

    I, for one, can’t wait for the huge cool-down forecast here for the next 2 weeks showing in the W2020 extended forecast for the KC region.

    June 10
    Many Weather Changes
    72°F / 53°F
    The week will start very warm and humid with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms as weak disturbances drift across the Plains. Then a stronger system and cold front will track west to east across the region, bringing a good chance of rain and thunderstorms for two to three days. Some thunderstorms may be severe with very heavy rain. Eastern sections of Kansas and Nebraska and all of Iowa and Missouri have the best chance for the heavy rain. After the system and front it will be much cooler with little chance of rain. Showers may linger in Iowa and Missouri. Go to Weather2020.com to join the LRC Forecast Experience Blog and learn more about this breakthrough technology.

    June 17
    Active Weather Pattern
    78°F / 59°F
    A series of disturbances from the northwest and two main cold fronts could create thunderstorms. Each part of the region will have a good chance of thunderstorms for three to four days this week. Temperatures will run below to much below average. Go to Weather2020.com to join the LRC Forecast Experience Blog and learn more about this breakthrough technology.

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