Good morning bloggers,
Weather2020 has completed a 17-year analysis of hurricane seasons and this provides the confidence to make accurate weather forecasts for the prediction of tropical storms and hurricanes. This is going to be a very active year around the United States and we already know the likely tracks of many potential tropical storms of which a few will strengthen into hurricanes. There is a hot spot as I will show below. Here is the press release going out. Go to Facebook or Twitter and share it with your friends to help spread this important information: Press Release
The hot spot for this season, issued in December, is targeting this area:
In January, I spoke at the AMS conference in Austin, TX showing the likely track of one of the signature tropical systems that is likely going to form in each LRC cycle, but the strongest will be likely in late August or early September. There are many others that we have identified as well, and we are forecasting at least seven named storms to affect the United States with four hurricanes and potentially two major hurricanes making landfall most likely in this hot spot. The tropical waters are still a bit too cool to support the development of any significant tropical activity, but this will change dramatically in the next two to three weeks as water temperatures rise. Water temperatures really need to be 80 degrees or higher and they are just getting to that level right now. There is a tropical system right in the middle of the hot spot right now, and when this part of the pattern cycles back through in 47 and 94 days, then it will produce a good chance of a tropical storm or hurricane. We have been targeting the end of May for a different system to track near or west of Florida. And, this is the one I presented to my peers in May to be a major storm in late August.
This Week’s Weather
The northeast just got hit by a major severe weather outbreak in the past two days, one of the biggest of the season. And, this is directly related to an outbreak that happened on March 28th, or 47 days earlier. One of the biggest outbreaks of the year occurred on April 3rd, and this lines up with this weekend. Let’s take a look:
The setup for Saturday in the upper levels is quite similar to what has happened in each LRC Cycle this year, so four other previous times. We are in the fifth cycle of this year’s pattern. Let’s see how this sets up for Saturday evening. Kansas City may have a few rain showers later today, but the drought continues to build overhead and there is one month left of what would be considered our wettest 30-day stretch on average. There are chances showing up, but as we all just experienced; we just got missed again, like we did all winter long.
Kansas City Weather Time-Line:
- Today: Sunny this morning with cumulus clouds growing and building later this morning through the afternoon. A weak upper level storm will move overhead tonight and this will likely help produce a few showers and possibly even a thunderstorm. The chance at any one location is up to 30 percent, but many areas will likely stay dry again today. High: 80°
- Thursday: Mostly sunny with late morning through afternoon clouds. High: 81°
Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the cycling pattern. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.