A Dry April Comes To An End

/A Dry April Comes To An End

A Dry April Comes To An End

Good morning bloggers,

We are finishing up a dry April in Kansas City. Take a look at the rainfall stats:

Screen Shot 2018-04-30 at 8.00.36 AM

The total is actually 5.60″ less than last year in April. Wow!  In our spring forecast, I predicted that we would be near or above average in May and June, so this means that we will get at least 10″ of rain by the end of June. We will need it as it is getting quite dry out there.  2.74″ below average would be much more glaring if it was a warm month, but it was one of the coldest Aprils on record. I believe we are coming in second or third coldest.

Severe Weather Risks:

day1otlk_1200Storm chasers from around the world have flown out, driven to, or somehow ended up in chase vehicles over the western plains states today.  These storm chasers are either by themselves, which we do not recommend, or with chase teams.  There will be, what is called, chaser convergence where any big thunderstorms develop.  One of the biggest dangers of storm chasing is not being killed by a tornado, but the driving dangers.  In recent years, storm chasers have been killed by tornadoes and in traffic accidents. So, this is a dangerous hobby for sure.  If you do go out, always have a driver with you that will concentrate on driving. And, then when it comes to tracking the super cell thunderstorms, make sure you keep your eye on the road and not the sky. Stop the car when you want to look at the storm structure.  And, obey the traffic laws.

The risks are challenging as this storm approaches the region.  Today, the risk is out west, but it will shift east towards KC in the next couple of days. It appears the risk will stay north of Kansas City until Wednesday.

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The risk on Tuesday is above, and the risk on Wednesday shows what is likely the best chance of severe weather near KC:

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From the Storm Prediction Center:  “There is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms mainly from northwest Texas, across Oklahoma, Kansas, and northwestern Missouri.  Severe Thunderstorms are likely across a large part of the southern and central plains Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning, with a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. The greatest threat area at this time appears to be from northwest Texas across Oklahoma and eastern Kansas.”

The set ups are still in motion, and there is a lot to discuss in the next few days. Right now, today will be calm near KC. How will Wednesday set up? More soon.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Let us know if you have any questions, and join in the conversation on the Weather2020 blog.  Have a great day!

Gary

2018-05-01T07:54:29+00:00April 30th, 2018|General|24 Comments

24 Comments

  1. Mr. Pete April 30, 2018 at 8:11 am - Reply

    I think we are finally done with the snow.

    • Heat Miser April 30, 2018 at 8:12 am - Reply

      OH yeah

  2. Three7s April 30, 2018 at 8:13 am - Reply

    Time to buckle up! Severe weather season is here!

  3. Lainie Franklin April 30, 2018 at 8:54 am - Reply

    I’m still not convinced I can take my winter coat to the cleaners yet though!

  4. Stl78(winon,mn) April 30, 2018 at 9:09 am - Reply

    My wife and I were doin yard work yesterday and she asked why I still had the shovel on the porch and I told her I was scared if I put it away I would jinx it. All that is left for snow up here are some small piles… thankfully!

  5. Anonymous by choice April 30, 2018 at 9:30 am - Reply

    Do not believe anything you read above. Mower Mike says #WETDROUGHT. No one is in a drought.

  6. Michael Casteel April 30, 2018 at 10:02 am - Reply

    April Showers will “NOT” bring May flowers! Here are my pathetic April rain/snow totals for Maryville: I recorded five rain events with a total of .39″. With the biggest one being a .25″ on April 26th. I recorded 4″ of snow on April 2nd. I pray that May brings more moisture. I was out at our local Lake Mozingo for a picnic over the weekend and it is down about ten feet! We use it not only for recreation, but our water supply for Maryville. Have a safe day Bloggers!
    Michael

  7. Kurt April 30, 2018 at 10:50 am - Reply

    St. Joseph did a little better at .56 for the month of April, since March 1st .91 (which breaks the record of 1.31 for the two month period set in 1989) and a year total of 2.37 which is 4.98 below normal (normal is 7.35). We had 2.5″ of snow on the 1st, 1.5″ inches of snow on the 8th and 2″ of snow the 14th and 15th. Rain is definitely needed and hope that the water table is good since St. Joseph’s water supply is from wells. I wonder if we are going to make a run at a record dry year in 2018?

  8. Jim April 30, 2018 at 11:27 am - Reply

    What does the LRC suggest the set up will be for Wednesday? That is why I come here.

    • Three7s April 30, 2018 at 12:09 pm - Reply

      Gary has been mentioning all month about the chance for severe weather during this period. Whether it will hit or not is still in question, just like the snows all through winter. There WILL be an outbreak in the area, it just may not be over us specifically because the KC area seems to be on the edge of every event.

      • Heat Miser April 30, 2018 at 2:56 pm - Reply

        not every event…we’ve been hit pretty good a couple of times..comma head

      • Joe April 30, 2018 at 4:15 pm - Reply

        If the LRC is an indicator of past performance it will not be over KC

    • REAL HUMEDUDE April 30, 2018 at 5:02 pm - Reply

      The LRC never has, nor ever will, predict exactly when and where a severe thunderstorm will form. You might want to get your forecasts directly from GOD if that’s the kind of accuracy you demand. I can tell you anybody making that claim now is fill of IT, you have to see how each day sets up when forecasting severe storms. That’s just how it is

  9. Ben April 30, 2018 at 11:37 am - Reply

    It is extremely dry in north MO. Probably the driest planting season since 2012 and we know what that summer brought us. If we miss the rain this week it will bring the planters to a halt until we get a rain. Not enough moisture to even get the seed to sprout

  10. REAL HUMEDUDE April 30, 2018 at 1:38 pm - Reply

    Ben – rain is coming, don’t stop planting. What you don’t plant now might take awhile to get in, it’s going to get wet this month I just know it.

  11. Richard April 30, 2018 at 4:10 pm - Reply

    NWS Kansas City :

    “Unless precipitation happens between now and midnight (not in the forecast). April will go down as the 6th driest on the 130-year record for KC and the 1st driest on on the 117-year record for St. Joseph.”

  12. snowflakeparkville April 30, 2018 at 5:25 pm - Reply

    2nd coldest April on record, and it was only the warmth of yesterday and today that saved it from being the #1 coldest. I’m glad to have seen it, a fascinating weather event. 🙂

  13. Jackson in Gladstone April 30, 2018 at 5:45 pm - Reply

    Sure is quiet on the blog lately – especially for the upcoming outbreak the LRC predicted?

  14. Richard April 30, 2018 at 6:02 pm - Reply

    Blowing dust in Nebraska shut I-80 down today. Multiple accidents.

    “We have another multi-vehicle crash on I-80 caused by low-visibility due to blowing dust.
    I-80 is closed from MM 366 (Utica) to MM 379 (Seward).
    Please use an alternate route.”

    • KS Jones April 30, 2018 at 9:49 pm - Reply

      The wind was howling out this way too (gusting to 45 MPH), but no dust storms. I did have to extinguish a few hotspots that reignited from our controlled burn on Sunday. Sunday was our best window of opportunity to burn the native grass because the forecast showed strong wind followed by rain up until Friday. Had a few hotspots reignite yesterday as well, and since it was windy and they were near our boundary I had to put them out before they jumped to the neighboring pastureland of unburned tall grass.

  15. Matt May 1, 2018 at 6:23 am - Reply

    Enhanced Risk today more into Central KS.

  16. Skylar May 1, 2018 at 6:47 am - Reply

    Got a few tiny hailstones with this cell that just moved over Lawrence

  17. Skylar May 1, 2018 at 6:48 am - Reply

    Got a few tiny hailstones with this cell that just moved over Lawrence

    • Skylar May 1, 2018 at 6:50 am - Reply

      Significant weather advisory on it for dime sized hail possible

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