Tracking Thunderstorm Chances, One Day at a Time

/Tracking Thunderstorm Chances, One Day at a Time

Tracking Thunderstorm Chances, One Day at a Time

Good Sunday bloggers,

This has been, so far, the nicest weekend since September 30-October 1. Today will be a bit different than Saturday. It will be slightly warmer, with a bit more wind and during the afternoon there will be more clouds and the chance for a brief shower. Then, we will turn our attention to the chance of severe thunderstorms Monday-Thursday. We will take it one day at a time as each day will have a different set up to some extent.

SUNDAY MORNING: There was a weak disturbance in central Kansas during the morning. This system will be located across eastern Kansas and western Missouri between 2 PM and 5 PM as it weakens. This means there will be more clouds with the chance of a sprinkle and/or brief shower. I would not cancel any outdoor plans.

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SUNDAY AFTERNOON: You can see the band of clouds with a few showers/sprinkles moving across the area with highs around 70°. The wind will be increasing from the southeast with gusts to 25-30 mph.

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SUNDAY EVENING: Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be forming across the western Plains. A few thunderstorms may be severe, but Gulf moisture is limited, so this does not look like a big event. These thunderstorms will fall apart long before they would reach eastern Kansas.

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MONDAY: This is the day where the Gulf of Mexico moisture begins a trek north on south winds gusting to 35-45 mph. Highs will be around 80° around here and in the 80s across western Kansas. A few severe thunderstorms may form in the western Plains Monday evening.

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TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: This is where we have the juicy Gulf of Mexico moisture in place with a front stalled from northwest Kansas to Wisconsin. The front will be the main focus for heavy and severe thunderstorms. The data has been trending this to be closer to I-80 than I-70. There will be a chance for a few severe thunderstorms near the surface low and dry line.

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WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: The triple point, where the cold front, dry line and warm/stationary front meet will be located over northwest Kansas. It looks like the biggest activity will be found across Nebraska and Iowa with scattered severe thunderstorms from the surface low south to along the dry line. The main upper level storm system will still be in the southwest USA, so the dry line and surface low are not moving much. If any thunderstorms form along the dry line, they could reach our area Wednesday night in a weakened state. And, just like Tuesday we will need to keep an eye on the location of the stationary front. As is, the main activity is north of our area.

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THURSDAY: This is, as it stands now, when the best chance for heavy to possibly severe thunderstorms occurs for eastern Kansas and Missouri. We need the rain, but the severe weather we can live with out.

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This is going to be an interesting week of weather and I would be shocked if the streak of zero tornadoes in Kansas and Oklahoma continues. We will take it one day at a time.

Have a great week.

Jeff Penner

2018-04-30T08:09:47+00:00April 29th, 2018|General|12 Comments

12 Comments

  1. Richard April 29, 2018 at 9:44 am - Reply

    No surprises here. It is dry and will continue. This LRC

  2. Mr. Pete April 29, 2018 at 9:50 am - Reply

    No sprinkler system here, but my grass is still green and growing.

  3. terry April 29, 2018 at 10:25 am - Reply

    Everyone Get real it’s not going to be dry everwhere and the grass is where I’m at. One of Jeff’s keys words are we need to take it one day at a time . We all know how fast these models change and change alot each models run until the day of this event. That’s my two cents.

    • Richard April 29, 2018 at 11:12 am - Reply

      Terry
      Just like it was going to snow all winter ? I think you need to get real and quit laying into people.
      Gary still has concerns about a drought. But you don’t hear him. You only hear Jeff saying one day at a time.
      Green grass means nothing, it is shallow. when you dig further down it is dry.

      • terry April 29, 2018 at 12:06 pm - Reply

        I’m speaking the truth and the truth is told. You do have to take it one day at a time and yes The LRC that was dry in parts of the winter time can become wet because of Seasonal differences. In one of Gary’s blogs he chose one of these dates for possible Severe weather outbreaks in Our area April 30th to may 4th. If we get big storm I’m okay with that and I can care less about Tornadoes.

        • Kurt April 29, 2018 at 2:32 pm - Reply

          Huh? You’re ok if you get 2 inches of rain in your backyard but if the driest areas get missed so be it? Terry we’re in our way to severe drought up here and it’s going to take. Widespread impacting wet pattern to break out long term dryness up here.

          You’re not acknowledging how bad it is going back to October 2016 and some areas are experiencing 15 to 20 inch deficits that’s resulted in very poor top soil conditions that one round of storms isn’t going to resolve

          • Roger April 29, 2018 at 3:18 pm - Reply

            Agree full-heartedly that even this storm isn’t going to produce much rain for the worst drought areas. Pattern recogntion shows that this mid-week storm will most likely shear apart before reorganizing farther south and east.

      • Troy April 29, 2018 at 1:00 pm - Reply

        In republic county we have had 3.5 inches for this entire lrc vs 9.5 normal. Maybe it will improve but drought is a concern when you are in one.

  4. Heat Miser April 29, 2018 at 12:17 pm - Reply

    looks like a chance of a good soaker on Thursday.

  5. REAL HUMEDUDE April 29, 2018 at 4:06 pm - Reply

    I dug a new pond last week, that 1/2″ rain put 2′ in it. It’s pretty darn wet down here yet, there is a great disparency from south to north and west.

  6. Emaw April 29, 2018 at 6:51 pm - Reply

    Definitely need some good rains this week region wide. Are we finally done with lows in the 30’s and flirting with frost? I know the LRC would suggest colder than average mid to late May but how much colder? We all know what that meant for the 1st 2/3 of April.

  7. WeathermanKumke April 29, 2018 at 7:18 pm - Reply

    Wednesday and Thursday look to be the days to watch

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