Oklahoma Sets All Time Latest Tornado Record

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Good morning bloggers,

How quiet has severe weather season been near KC? This graphic is one I started showing in March a year ago, and last night was the first time I showed it in 2018. This is an example of how quiet it has been when it comes to severe weather season.  The cold April is one of the reasons, and the cause is the cycling pattern that set up according to the LRC in October. There are two main parts of this pattern most favorable for producing severe weather. One of those is right on schedule and arriving early next week, but please remember, this is the same pattern. There is a trend right now on the models that is leaving the KC region with low rainfall totals. We just have to see how it sets up next week.

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Oklahoma has set the record for the latest first tornado ever recorded.  There has yet to be one tornado reported across the Sooner state, and April 26th was the latest date they had ever gone without one tornado before now.  There is a good chance of a tornado next week, but remember it’s the same pattern that is cycling that has caused the conditions for this record to be broken.  Kansas has not had one tornado either.

As we begin analyzing next weeks severe weather set-ups the first thing that stands out is the lack of low level moisture. Take a look at the dew point forecast map valid Sunday evening. The deep moisture is still hugging the Gulf coast.  The surge of moisture is beginning, but still struggling.  This will limit Sundays severe weather risk out west, but there may be a few thunderstorms that form way out west . The moisture will eventually increase, but then there are other issues beginning to show up that will pose forecast problems on where the best chance of severe weather will be located.

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KSHB Meteorologist Nicole Phillips just tweeted out these three graphics:

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Kansas City Rainfall:

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The moderate drought has been pulsating up and down over the plains in recent weeks. The next month will say a lot.  Take a look at the latest rainfall forecast from the GFS Model:

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As you can see, this would be a disturbing result, because we already know that the pattern quiets down after next week, until later in the month.  This solution brought the rainfall totals down to under 1/2″ with the biggest thunderstorms north and south of KC.  We will discuss this a bit more as we get closer to Tuesday and Wednesday.

Hey, at least we finally get a dry and beautiful weekend. Every other Saturday and Sunday has been cloudy, wet, or snowy.

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Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020!  Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation as we share in this weather experience.

Gary

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Lary Gezak
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Lary Gezak

The SPC is giving us a severe threat on Tuesday evening and Wednesday afternoon

Richard
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Richard

Who is “us”

Bill
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Bill

I have a major problem with this blog post today. All season long, the weather team has pointed out that the severe threat/heavy rain is to the east and southeast. Except look at this forecast, the SE is experiencing a summer like dry spell in this forecast. This does not match the pattern at all. Yes there are seasonal differences, but spring should bring a wetter period to the Arklatex area and east. I either think a) the pattern is being interpreted incorrectly or b) we are in a new weather pattern. Just my thoughts.

Troy Newman
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Troy Newman

I don’t know if this type of a set up is the best for drought relief. Usually these severe weather set ups in a SW flow have storms racing North at 50 mph so unless you can get some training totals can be less than hoped for. I still think the NW flow in this pattern is the best chance to produce more widespread rains but its taking a long time to warm up this year.

Kurt
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Kurt

The models and the precip maps tend to show a trend, yet there are storm systems on schedule with the LRC, but they tend to still look to provide similar results even with seasonal variations. Not sure if the rest of the LRC cycles are going to struggle producing with the lack of low level moisture just a wait and see situation. It’s interesting the data he showed for those location, St. Joseph is still experiencing their driest year to date ever with less than 2.4 inches hear to date and we are now over 5 inches behind normal year… Read more »

Richard
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Richard

Hey Bob or somebody !
please stop the racing “related posts” above.
Makes it hard to read comments and type anything here.

Nice to finally get a calm warm weekend.

terry
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terry

why do you put up the GFs Rainfall precipitation map when it changes every day ?

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Why do we look at weather models when they change every 4-6 hours? Because its the most current forecast we have, and that’s all we have to go off. That’s why

KS Jones
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KS Jones

Precisely. The NWS gives us a 30% chance for severe weather on Wednesday, but they included this following disclaimer. https://www.weather.gov/media/top/sitreport/SitReport1.pdf Severe Weather Details (NWS Topeka) There remains a fair amount of uncertainty in the forecast, especially when it comes to the specific details of timing and location. So changes in the forecast are likely. Regardless, there are enough signs from the model information to be on the lookout for severe thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday. ….. That said, in the past 8 hours WeatherUnderground has changed our Tuesday through Wednesday rainfall prediction from 1.1″ to 0.55″, and I don’t know which… Read more »

Michael Casteel
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Michael Casteel

I only recorded .25″ of rain from Wednesday. I am getting concerned it could be a year like 1989. That was the driest one I can remember in my 45 year old life. Farm ponds I fished were killed off that year. Mother Nature needs to kick up the moisture! Have a great weekend Bloggers!
Michael