Oklahoma Sets All Time Latest Tornado Record

/Oklahoma Sets All Time Latest Tornado Record

Oklahoma Sets All Time Latest Tornado Record

Good morning bloggers,

How quiet has severe weather season been near KC? This graphic is one I started showing in March a year ago, and last night was the first time I showed it in 2018. This is an example of how quiet it has been when it comes to severe weather season.  The cold April is one of the reasons, and the cause is the cycling pattern that set up according to the LRC in October. There are two main parts of this pattern most favorable for producing severe weather. One of those is right on schedule and arriving early next week, but please remember, this is the same pattern. There is a trend right now on the models that is leaving the KC region with low rainfall totals. We just have to see how it sets up next week.

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Oklahoma has set the record for the latest first tornado ever recorded.  There has yet to be one tornado reported across the Sooner state, and April 26th was the latest date they had ever gone without one tornado before now.  There is a good chance of a tornado next week, but remember it’s the same pattern that is cycling that has caused the conditions for this record to be broken.  Kansas has not had one tornado either.

As we begin analyzing next weeks severe weather set-ups the first thing that stands out is the lack of low level moisture. Take a look at the dew point forecast map valid Sunday evening. The deep moisture is still hugging the Gulf coast.  The surge of moisture is beginning, but still struggling.  This will limit Sundays severe weather risk out west, but there may be a few thunderstorms that form way out west . The moisture will eventually increase, but then there are other issues beginning to show up that will pose forecast problems on where the best chance of severe weather will be located.

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KSHB Meteorologist Nicole Phillips just tweeted out these three graphics:

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Kansas City Rainfall:

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The moderate drought has been pulsating up and down over the plains in recent weeks. The next month will say a lot.  Take a look at the latest rainfall forecast from the GFS Model:

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As you can see, this would be a disturbing result, because we already know that the pattern quiets down after next week, until later in the month.  This solution brought the rainfall totals down to under 1/2″ with the biggest thunderstorms north and south of KC.  We will discuss this a bit more as we get closer to Tuesday and Wednesday.

Hey, at least we finally get a dry and beautiful weekend. Every other Saturday and Sunday has been cloudy, wet, or snowy.

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Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020!  Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation as we share in this weather experience.

Gary

2018-04-30T08:11:08+00:00April 27th, 2018|General|11 Comments

11 Comments

  1. Michael Casteel April 27, 2018 at 8:01 am - Reply

    I only recorded .25″ of rain from Wednesday. I am getting concerned it could be a year like 1989. That was the driest one I can remember in my 45 year old life. Farm ponds I fished were killed off that year. Mother Nature needs to kick up the moisture! Have a great weekend Bloggers!
    Michael

  2. terry April 27, 2018 at 8:41 am - Reply

    why do you put up the GFs Rainfall precipitation map when it changes every day ?

    • REAL HUMEDUDE April 27, 2018 at 9:18 am - Reply

      Why do we look at weather models when they change every 4-6 hours? Because its the most current forecast we have, and that’s all we have to go off. That’s why

      • KS Jones April 27, 2018 at 9:55 am - Reply

        Precisely. The NWS gives us a 30% chance for severe weather on Wednesday, but they included this following disclaimer.
        https://www.weather.gov/media/top/sitreport/SitReport1.pdf
        Severe Weather Details (NWS Topeka)
        There remains a fair amount of uncertainty in the forecast, especially when it comes to the specific details of timing and location. So changes in the forecast are likely. Regardless, there are enough signs from the model information to be on the lookout for severe thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday.
        …..
        That said, in the past 8 hours WeatherUnderground has changed our Tuesday through Wednesday rainfall prediction from 1.1″ to 0.55″, and I don’t know which model they used to arrive at that forecast.

  3. Richard April 27, 2018 at 9:42 am - Reply

    Hey Bob or somebody !
    please stop the racing “related posts” above.
    Makes it hard to read comments and type anything here.

    Nice to finally get a calm warm weekend.

  4. Kurt April 27, 2018 at 9:44 am - Reply

    The models and the precip maps tend to show a trend, yet there are storm systems on schedule with the LRC, but they tend to still look to provide similar results even with seasonal variations. Not sure if the rest of the LRC cycles are going to struggle producing with the lack of low level moisture just a wait and see situation. It’s interesting the data he showed for those location, St. Joseph is still experiencing their driest year to date ever with less than 2.4 inches hear to date and we are now over 5 inches behind normal year to date. At some point, if we continue the drought severity will get increasingly worse across the rest of NE Kansas and NW Missouri at least this looks like the trend.

    Unless people want to spend a great deal of time and effort watering, I see this really impacting the nurseries and lawn and garden centers sales (not just to delayed start to spring but without adequate water; gardeners like me will or might be reluctant to plant as many annuals).

  5. Troy Newman April 27, 2018 at 10:30 am - Reply

    I don’t know if this type of a set up is the best for drought relief. Usually these severe weather set ups in a SW flow have storms racing North at 50 mph so unless you can get some training totals can be less than hoped for. I still think the NW flow in this pattern is the best chance to produce more widespread rains but its taking a long time to warm up this year.

  6. Bill April 27, 2018 at 10:44 am - Reply

    I have a major problem with this blog post today. All season long, the weather team has pointed out that the severe threat/heavy rain is to the east and southeast. Except look at this forecast, the SE is experiencing a summer like dry spell in this forecast. This does not match the pattern at all. Yes there are seasonal differences, but spring should bring a wetter period to the Arklatex area and east. I either think a) the pattern is being interpreted incorrectly or b) we are in a new weather pattern. Just my thoughts.

    • Gary April 27, 2018 at 11:19 am - Reply

      Bill,

      The severe weather hot spot for the season has KC on the edge and to our south and east. This tornado drought is a perfect example of how accurate that forecast made months ago is verifying. As we move into May and June, and then summer arrives, the same pattern shifts the risks farther west and north. This happens every year as the jet stream retreats. But, this doesn’t mean there will be a major outbreak farther west. The summer like dry spell does match the pattern. It is this part of the cycling pattern that produces the drier conditions there, but it will also cycle through and the wetter and cooler pattern is still on the way over that region soon. It’s the same pattern, just the seasonal difference. Eventually it will be summer, but the same pattern will continue, just the summer version will arrive, until October when we get a new pattern to set up.

      Watch closely. There will likely be some severe weather farther west this time, but the best chance of significant severe weather is more likely south and east.

      Gary

  7. Lary Gezak April 27, 2018 at 3:13 pm - Reply

    The SPC is giving us a severe threat on Tuesday evening and Wednesday afternoon

    • Richard April 27, 2018 at 3:18 pm - Reply

      Who is “us”

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