Good morning bloggers,
How quiet has severe weather season been near KC? This graphic is one I started showing in March a year ago, and last night was the first time I showed it in 2018. This is an example of how quiet it has been when it comes to severe weather season. The cold April is one of the reasons, and the cause is the cycling pattern that set up according to the LRC in October. There are two main parts of this pattern most favorable for producing severe weather. One of those is right on schedule and arriving early next week, but please remember, this is the same pattern. There is a trend right now on the models that is leaving the KC region with low rainfall totals. We just have to see how it sets up next week.
Oklahoma has set the record for the latest first tornado ever recorded. There has yet to be one tornado reported across the Sooner state, and April 26th was the latest date they had ever gone without one tornado before now. There is a good chance of a tornado next week, but remember it’s the same pattern that is cycling that has caused the conditions for this record to be broken. Kansas has not had one tornado either.
As we begin analyzing next weeks severe weather set-ups the first thing that stands out is the lack of low level moisture. Take a look at the dew point forecast map valid Sunday evening. The deep moisture is still hugging the Gulf coast. The surge of moisture is beginning, but still struggling. This will limit Sundays severe weather risk out west, but there may be a few thunderstorms that form way out west . The moisture will eventually increase, but then there are other issues beginning to show up that will pose forecast problems on where the best chance of severe weather will be located.
KSHB Meteorologist Nicole Phillips just tweeted out these three graphics:
Kansas City Rainfall:
The moderate drought has been pulsating up and down over the plains in recent weeks. The next month will say a lot. Take a look at the latest rainfall forecast from the GFS Model:
As you can see, this would be a disturbing result, because we already know that the pattern quiets down after next week, until later in the month. This solution brought the rainfall totals down to under 1/2″ with the biggest thunderstorms north and south of KC. We will discuss this a bit more as we get closer to Tuesday and Wednesday.
Hey, at least we finally get a dry and beautiful weekend. Every other Saturday and Sunday has been cloudy, wet, or snowy.
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