Looking Into Next Weeks Storm Systems

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Good morning bloggers,

Weather2020 forecasted two main parts of this cycling pattern as providing the best chances for an outbreak this season.  One of those cycled through around two weeks ago and will return later in May.  The second set up is now arriving in the next few days.

Screen Shot 2018-04-26 at 6.46.02 AM

This is the outlook that was updated, a forecast made weeks ago to arrive in this part of the cycling pattern, and it is right on schedule.  The Storm Prediction Center now has the outlook in their day 7 forecast:

day7prob

The models are coming into agreement and we will go into the specifics in the next few days. For now, the exact set up from day to day is still unclear.    For storm chasers, the first risks will be way out west, but then the risks will increase as they move in to the red hot spot as shown in our alert above.

Potential rainfall:

1

This rainfall forecast is from last nights GFS model showing 2 to 4 inches of rain near KC.  Confidence in this is still low at this moment. We will just have to see how it sets up.

Have a great day.  Go over to the Weather2020.com blog to join in the conversation as we share and learn in this weather experience together.

Gary

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GaryJackson in GladstoneMr. PeteRichardC.C Recent comment authors
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Jackson in Gladstone
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Jackson in Gladstone

Any chance this severe weather blob moves west next week?

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Anyone else looking at the solar halo? Amazing!

Richard
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Richard

NWS Kansas City

“St Joseph reached 31 this morning tying the record low set in 1950.”

OUweather
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OUweather

I know it is still far out, but what is the likelyhood of the SPC issuing a high risk area for central Oklahoma, or really any area in the mid-west early next week? Keep all the amazing content coming Gary.
Thanks

Mason - Basehor
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Mason - Basehor

I’m kind of surprised Gary’s forecast seems to exclude Kansas from most of the action next week.

DanT
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DanT

What about storm #1 that the SPC has highlighted for our area?

Anonymous
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Anonymous

I was wondering that too. They have us in the 15% on Tuesday.

StormCraver
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StormCraver

Random Question! Why is 70’s today and tomorrow….then dips to the 60’s…..and then back up to 70s? What causes this random drop in temp when there is not rain or other storms moving through, and it’s 70’s on both sides of Saturday?

George
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George

Threw out just under 1/4″ this morning at my house. 87th & Antioch in OP

Richard
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Richard

Garys key words “near KC”

C.C
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C.C

Because the track of the storm is unpredictable. Just like yesterday’s rain was supposed to be west of KC….

Richard
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Richard

Yes, I realize this.
That is why I threw that out there. So that people won’t think it will be right on top of us, and call foul when it isn’t.

Three7s
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Three7s

They’ll do it anyway.

C.C
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C.C

Just like Jim the troll. Says he wants a forecast, gets one and it’s not good enough

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Tropical Tidbits has a new model, the FV3-GFS, which supposedly is experimental.

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Looks like that’s going to be the replacement for the GFS, I thought they had already replaced the old one:
https://www.weather.gov/news/fv3

Three7s
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Three7s

I think the worst of the severe weather will be southeast of the metro, more towards Columbia. We’ll get some storms and maybe a severe storm here and there, but I wouldn’t expect anything more than that, which is probably a good thing as long as we all get rain.

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

We r dealing with some minor flooding up this way. Mostly from snow melt but it’s been a beautiful few days in the 50s and 60s. Loving it. Looking fwd to hearing some thunder next WK hopefully. I hope the flood gates open for u guys, especially around 36 hwy and north. Have a great day! Oh happy belated Gary!

Mike Holm
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Mike Holm

Gary, what was the cycle length for the previous cycles? Is it common for it to oscillate with that large of a range (seven days)? What is the largest variance of cycle length you’ve seen?

Jim
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Jim

Gives him wiggle room.

C.C
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C.C

This shows that nothing is good enough for you

Three7s
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Three7s

Troll

VERNON T. TAGGERT
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VERNON T. TAGGERT

Most excellent rain, keep up the good work.

LYITC41
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LYITC41

.20 in my gauge S. OP yesterday, better than nothing.