Good morning bloggers,
Weather2020 forecasted two main parts of this cycling pattern as providing the best chances for an outbreak this season. One of those cycled through around two weeks ago and will return later in May. The second set up is now arriving in the next few days.
This is the outlook that was updated, a forecast made weeks ago to arrive in this part of the cycling pattern, and it is right on schedule. The Storm Prediction Center now has the outlook in their day 7 forecast:
The models are coming into agreement and we will go into the specifics in the next few days. For now, the exact set up from day to day is still unclear. For storm chasers, the first risks will be way out west, but then the risks will increase as they move in to the red hot spot as shown in our alert above.
This rainfall forecast is from last nights GFS model showing 2 to 4 inches of rain near KC. Confidence in this is still low at this moment. We will just have to see how it sets up.
Have a great day. Go over to the Weather2020.com blog to join in the conversation as we share and learn in this weather experience together.