Looking Into Next Weeks Storm Systems

/Looking Into Next Weeks Storm Systems

Looking Into Next Weeks Storm Systems

Good morning bloggers,

Weather2020 forecasted two main parts of this cycling pattern as providing the best chances for an outbreak this season.  One of those cycled through around two weeks ago and will return later in May.  The second set up is now arriving in the next few days.

Screen Shot 2018-04-26 at 6.46.02 AM

This is the outlook that was updated, a forecast made weeks ago to arrive in this part of the cycling pattern, and it is right on schedule.  The Storm Prediction Center now has the outlook in their day 7 forecast:

day7prob

The models are coming into agreement and we will go into the specifics in the next few days. For now, the exact set up from day to day is still unclear.    For storm chasers, the first risks will be way out west, but then the risks will increase as they move in to the red hot spot as shown in our alert above.

Potential rainfall:

1

This rainfall forecast is from last nights GFS model showing 2 to 4 inches of rain near KC.  Confidence in this is still low at this moment. We will just have to see how it sets up.

Have a great day.  Go over to the Weather2020.com blog to join in the conversation as we share and learn in this weather experience together.

Gary

2018-04-27T16:08:12+00:00April 26th, 2018|General|26 Comments

26 Comments

  1. LYITC41 April 26, 2018 at 7:31 am - Reply

    .20 in my gauge S. OP yesterday, better than nothing.

  2. VERNON T. TAGGERT April 26, 2018 at 7:51 am - Reply

    Most excellent rain, keep up the good work.

  3. Mike Holm April 26, 2018 at 7:54 am - Reply

    Gary, what was the cycle length for the previous cycles? Is it common for it to oscillate with that large of a range (seven days)? What is the largest variance of cycle length you’ve seen?

    • Jim April 26, 2018 at 10:47 am - Reply

      Gives him wiggle room.

      • C.C April 26, 2018 at 11:02 am - Reply

        This shows that nothing is good enough for you

      • Three7s April 26, 2018 at 11:04 am - Reply

        Troll

    • Gary April 26, 2018 at 11:06 am - Reply

      The cycle is always centered around one main number. This year is 47 or 48 days. If I were to really be precise, it could be 47.3 days. So, we use 47 or 48 days. The variance every year is about the same. So, this year is around 43 to 44 low, and 51 high. It is quite incredibly consistent in the number we figure out by December, although this year I had a good idea by October 23rd that it would be close to around the 47-day cycle. Last year was 58.5 days. This part of the pattern produced severe weather on three consecutive days in October, and again in January, and then on two days in March. So, the range was realistically always around April 27th to May 3rd. When I put out that April 24th to 30th range, I just didn’t calculate properly from the October dates, and thus made the adjustment. It is like forecasting the weather for a Sunday, and a forecast of thunderstorms at 3 PM may be moved to 3 AM. This is all I did, was make an adjustment like that, but from a forecast made 200 days ago, moving by one to three days is like moving a thunderstorm forecast for three days from now by a few hours. It is that simple. Very rarely do we ever adjust dates. The LRC is so consistent that forecasts made weeks in advance are often more accurate than a forecast made the day before. Last Saturday was a perfect example for the bike ride in KC. Our forecast made 12 weeks before Saturdays ride was spot on perfect.

      Gary

  4. Stl78(winon,mn) April 26, 2018 at 8:16 am - Reply

    We r dealing with some minor flooding up this way. Mostly from snow melt but it’s been a beautiful few days in the 50s and 60s. Loving it. Looking fwd to hearing some thunder next WK hopefully. I hope the flood gates open for u guys, especially around 36 hwy and north. Have a great day! Oh happy belated Gary!

  5. Three7s April 26, 2018 at 8:21 am - Reply

    I think the worst of the severe weather will be southeast of the metro, more towards Columbia. We’ll get some storms and maybe a severe storm here and there, but I wouldn’t expect anything more than that, which is probably a good thing as long as we all get rain.

  6. Snow Miser April 26, 2018 at 8:53 am - Reply

    Tropical Tidbits has a new model, the FV3-GFS, which supposedly is experimental.

  7. Richard April 26, 2018 at 10:01 am - Reply

    Garys key words “near KC”

    • C.C April 26, 2018 at 10:55 am - Reply

      Because the track of the storm is unpredictable. Just like yesterday’s rain was supposed to be west of KC….

      • Richard April 26, 2018 at 11:25 am - Reply

        Yes, I realize this.
        That is why I threw that out there. So that people won’t think it will be right on top of us, and call foul when it isn’t.

        • Three7s April 26, 2018 at 1:27 pm - Reply

          They’ll do it anyway.

          • C.C April 26, 2018 at 1:42 pm - Reply

            Just like Jim the troll. Says he wants a forecast, gets one and it’s not good enough

  8. George April 26, 2018 at 10:38 am - Reply

    Threw out just under 1/4″ this morning at my house. 87th & Antioch in OP

  9. StormCraver April 26, 2018 at 12:12 pm - Reply

    Random Question! Why is 70’s today and tomorrow….then dips to the 60’s…..and then back up to 70s? What causes this random drop in temp when there is not rain or other storms moving through, and it’s 70’s on both sides of Saturday?

    • Gary April 27, 2018 at 7:08 am - Reply

      There is a cold front moving through this evening.

      Gary

  10. DanT April 26, 2018 at 12:12 pm - Reply

    What about storm #1 that the SPC has highlighted for our area?

    • Anonymous April 26, 2018 at 12:24 pm - Reply

      I was wondering that too. They have us in the 15% on Tuesday.

  11. Mason - Basehor April 26, 2018 at 12:15 pm - Reply

    I’m kind of surprised Gary’s forecast seems to exclude Kansas from most of the action next week.

  12. OUweather April 26, 2018 at 1:39 pm - Reply

    I know it is still far out, but what is the likelyhood of the SPC issuing a high risk area for central Oklahoma, or really any area in the mid-west early next week? Keep all the amazing content coming Gary.
    Thanks

  13. Richard April 26, 2018 at 1:54 pm - Reply

    NWS Kansas City

    “St Joseph reached 31 this morning tying the record low set in 1950.”

  14. Mr. Pete April 26, 2018 at 3:57 pm - Reply

    Anyone else looking at the solar halo? Amazing!

  15. Jackson in Gladstone April 27, 2018 at 5:02 am - Reply

    Any chance this severe weather blob moves west next week?

Leave A Comment