No Tornadoes In Oklahoma Or Kansas In 2018

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Good morning bloggers,

We will discuss another incredible record that is about to be broken later this week on this rainy Sunday morning. But, first, take a look at radar:

Screen Shot 2018-04-22 at 6.43.04 AM

Kansas City is on the northern edge of the comma head of this storm. The storm ended up falling right into place southeast of Kansas City, and the comma head of rain finally backed into the KC metro area this morning. It was moving west in the cyclonic circulation:

Screen Shot 2018-04-22 at 6.42.43 AM

There was a rather well defined north and west edge, so many areas will stay dry, if you live up north. On the south side of the metro, it is a nice area of rain spinning west around the circulation, but amounts will still be fairly low. KCI Airport was still sitting at 4.68″ for the year, which is way below the average of 7.45″ by todays date.

This cooler pattern has lead to an interesting tornado statistic:

oklahoma_tornado_april

Weather.com posted an article discussing this record that is about to be broken, and here is what they discussed and suggested is the reason:

Since 1950, however, there has never been a year with zero tornadoes recorded from January through April in Oklahoma. The National Weather Service in Tulsa noted earlier this week that the record for the latest start to the tornado season is April 26, which occurred in 1962.  With generally cooler-than-average temperatures expected, conditions through the end of the month do not look particularly favorable for tornadoes in Oklahoma, so a new record looks very likely.

One reason for the lack of tornadoes and severe weather this year has been the persistent upper-level pattern in place. This pattern has brought a southward dip in the jet stream to much of the central U.S., which has allowed colder-than-average conditions to dominate these regions.

Or, they could just say “the LRC”.  And, then they go on into something that isn’t quite right, “The combination of colder temperatures, less moisture and a more northerly storm track have resulted in fewer severe thunderstorms and tornadoes through mid-April.”  Actually, the storm track has not been more northerly. If this were the case, then this would not be a cold pattern. It isn’t that the storm track is farther north, but that the center of the driest region over northwestern Oklahoma into the Texas Panhandle has been near the quasi-permanent anchor ridge this season, as proposed in the peer reviewed paper.  This pattern will continue, but as temperatures warm up, there will be increasing chances for some severe weather over Oklahoma.

Now, add this statistic to this record. Kansas has not had a tornado either. There hasn’t been one tornado in Kansas or Oklahoma yet in 2018.  Kansas averages around 12 by now.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Join the conversation over on the blog at Weather2020 and we will look ahead in tomorrows blog.

Gary

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Richard
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Richard

I agree
But Gary won’t discus it in depth. Too political. Too many paying clients.
It might jeopardize his peer review paper and theory.
Not that the theory is questionable, it isn’t.
But maybe talking about climate change, or the cause of it, would jeopardize 2020.

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Once again I see no acknowledgement of this pattern that has been recognized by people who study Climate Change. Even Gary should at least mention this. I provided the link yesterday that discusses the setup with imbedded links to research that shows this. Gary, point is Climate Change will cause/direct the weather. Not the LRC. The LRC will pick up the annual pattern that expresses itself each year as a result of Climate Change. Climate Change is clearly in the driver’s seat, and the LRC is the map showing the way each year. Glad to know that severe weather days… Read more »

Richard
Guest
Richard

I agree. I wish Gary would discuss it more.
But he won’t because it is too political, and he has a lot riding on the success of his theory.
Too many paying clients.

Emaw
Guest
Emaw

Barely enough to register in the guage in north Olathe .12″ at least it’s warming up. We need some warmth and humidity from the gulf or we’re hosed on precip.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Wow thanks seds, glad to know we’re setting records for dryness in St Joseph. Wish someone could explain how we’re in the wrong spot two years in a row and why the rain curse won’t move away. At least it’s a pleasant afternoon and made some progress on watering my flower beds and yard

Richard
Guest
Richard

Small annual cycles ( the LRC) within bigger cycles (years). Or something like that.
Even though each year the LRC is “unique”, I think there is something to a bigger pattern.
Take the extreme drought that CA was in for, how long ?
Now KC has seen less than 10 inches of snow for 3 years. 4 yrs without a 3 incher !

sedsinkc
Guest
sedsinkc

0.05″ of rain in KC North today brings the April rain/melted snow total to 0.94 inches.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Beautiful day here today..most of the snow has now melted and we have bright sunshine and 63….loving it!

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

I’m watering the yard and flower beds, Mother Nature isn’t cooperating and my poor flowers need a drink

Nick
Guest
Nick

I’m still holding out some hope that once we get into the humid season which is starting a bit late this year that maybe we can finally pop out of the hole up here, the drought is trying to contract overall, but in its apex it is still strenghening or at least holding its own, as for the “severity” of the drought, being that its such a “thin” area up here has has been missing most of the rains since last summer that will lessen impacts just because of spatial extent, ( even if St. Joe becomes a microdesert for… Read more »

Terry
Guest
Terry

So Gary Do you expect any severe out breaks around here soon?

Richard
Guest
Richard

Heat Miser
Your comment last night at midnight about the rain forecast being a Fail needs to be walked back.
Will you “admit it or try to spin it hard”…your words, not mine.

Tdogg
Guest
Tdogg

Call him by his real name: Robert Racy

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

I’m not defending Heat – but here in Prairie Village, there wasn’t enough rain to measure because I just checked my gauge. Models were calling for up to a half inch, which didn’t happen. So it depends on where you live.

Mary
Guest
Mary

Really nice steady rain in Shawnee for the past hour or two. Great for new planting’s.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Thanks Richard, haven’t had a chance to watch.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Kurt
You need to listen close or you’ll miss it.
It was a quick comment at the end of sentence. He says “something I’m still concerned about”

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

It’s about time we unmask the elephant and have discussions around implications and how severe the drought will be. I just don’t see how this changes, yes systems are there but they aren’t impacting the St Joseph area with the significant rains we need to make up the 16 inch deficit over the last 18 months

Richard
Guest
Richard

The other day on that video on here Gary said he still has concerns about drought.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Somethimg is afoot in St.Joe, I’m now stumped as to how it’s just the same thing up there. No tornados is also really odd at this stage of Spring. Latest GFS showing that active SW flow again starting next weekend, with multiple mesoscale disturbances (also highly unpredictable). Once we get warm and humid thunderstorms almost have to start cranking up as a result.

Roger
Guest
Roger

You’re absolutely right Kurt. For example, despite Hutchinson, KS receiving 0.52 inch yesterday, we still sit at 11 inches below normal since May 1st. St Joseph, Manhatan, Salina, Newton, and Wichita all are 10-15 inches below normal.

Roger
Guest
Roger

Sorry Manhattan

Nick
Guest
Nick

Well it… sprinkled last night… here in St. Joe, come on cycle 5, if this keeps up most of the meager accumulated precip for the month of April will be from snow in St. Joe, how often does that happen?? I will say the freak snows have made the weather interesting enough to kind of mask the elephant in the room here but this is getting sad.

C.C
Guest
C.C

I want to say 16, I think 15 it rained everyday but 2 in May

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Was that 15′ , or 16′ when we were so dry in Spring only to get 10″ of rain first week of June to bail is out?
I thought we were gonna have a terrible year until we caught that break. Maybe something similar happens this year

C.C
Guest
C.C

Are we going to have to wait until June to get decent precip north of the river?

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Does anyone know where I can get a source for historical rainfall totals for St Joseph Missouri? This has to be one of the driest 60 day stretches for March and April for St Joseph. With us only at 10 percent of normal precip for April at .23 inches and we were at about that amount in March.

Yet again another miss and yes most likely the lrc, but we really seem to be missing exactly how bad this drought is getting up here.

sedsinkc
Guest
sedsinkc

I can’t reveal my data source as I was instructed not to share when I was given access a few years ago, but you are correct. This March-April is the driest March-April period on record, so far, for St. Joe at 0.58″ total as of yesterday. The next driest year was 1989 when 1.30 inches of rain fell in this 2 month period. The record is continuous back to 1914, missing data 1910-1913, then continuous again back to 1899.

Richard
Guest
Richard

A secret Historical Data source ?
There must be one that is accessible to the general public.
Does anyone have one ? Kurt needs it

Troy Newman
Member
Troy Newman

Go to High Plains Regional Climate Center and download your own data. They have data for about every Cooperative observer but the best records over 100 years or more are usually the airports. It takes a while to figure it out but there is a ton of information there.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

The mesonet station at St Joe shows 0.88″ since March 1st. You can choose whatever timespan you want.
http://agebb.missouri.edu/weather/history/index.asp?station_prefix=stj

Steve
Guest
Steve

Wonderful rain outside of Salina yesterday: .64, nice and slow also! But keep it coming; we are still very short of moisture.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Finally getting some rain!!!

Lary Gezak
Guest
Lary Gezak

Speaking of severe weather… does next weekend show any promise?