Kansas City Had Its 10th Snow Event

/Kansas City Had Its 10th Snow Event

Kansas City Had Its 10th Snow Event

Good morning bloggers,

Let’s make it two straight Sundays with measurable snow in KC.  Can we make it three in a row next Sunday? Yes, there is a storm that fits the LRC perfectly for next weekend.  It has been on our LRC radar for months now, and in fact the severe weather risk fits perfectly to be off to the east and southeast of KC later Friday – Sunday as well.  It will be another interesting week of weather for sure.

0.8″ of snow fell in Kansas City keeping our average going at around that much in each snow this season, actually it is at around 0.7″ per snow, which is just almost impossible to do, but we just lived through it.  This brings our whopping total to 7.7″ of snow for the season. This could change big time with a huge finale Saturday?  The Canadian model has like 20″ near KC this weekend. I know, crazy right?

Here is the forecast map for Wednesday afternoon. Spring will finally get a jab in, in this battle with winter:


This surface pattern will provide for a huge warm up into the 70s with 80 degrees possible one of these days later this week.  And, then look at what happens.


This is the forecast map valid Saturday night at midnight. This would make it three straight Sundays with snow. Someone sent me a message telling me that when it rains on Easter Sunday, then it will rain the next seven Sundays.  Well, if it snows on Easter Sunday, maybe it will snow the next seven Sundays. Well, we know that is impossible, but this could be three straight Sundays.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation as we share in this weather experience.  Have a great start to the week.


2018-04-10T18:35:24+00:00April 9th, 2018|General|55 Comments


  1. Snow Miser April 9, 2018 at 7:54 am - Reply

    Grammar nerd time: There should be no apostrophe in that usage of its. “It’s = it is.” If you cannot turn your usage of “it’s” into “it is” then it should be “its.” Otherwise the title reads, “Kansas City Had It Is 10th Snow Event.”

    Anyway, back on topic, I’m amused by the latest Canadian run for next Sunday:

    • Gary April 9, 2018 at 8:07 am - Reply

      It’s Updated! I rarely make that mistake!

  2. Jim April 9, 2018 at 7:57 am - Reply

    It fits perfectly in with the LRC, but notice no predictions were made about whether or not it will snow. What is the point if you can’t make any predictions on your theory ahead of time. Just setting up the victory lap for next Monday. Hard to be wrong when your predictions are questions.

    • Gary April 9, 2018 at 8:12 am - Reply


      We make predictions all of the time. We can tell you whether or not it will be dry or wet; whether there is a chance of a major winter storm or not; when the blasts of cold will arrive or when there will likely be a heat wave. But, the limitation of the LRC is that it does not provide me right now with the ability to tell you who will get the 1 foot of snow. But, it does provide us with enough information to realistically expect another 0.8″ of snow if we end up close enough to the snow. Because that is all this LRC has provided us this year. So, whey you say “what is the point?”, I would hope you see that it provides tremendous insight into what will happen hours, days, weeks, months into the future. What other system provides this?

      Now, your question of “What is the point?” is a good one. How can our long range forecasts of severe weather outbreaks, winter storms, flooding events, and more help? This is something that is continuing to be explored.


      • Jim April 9, 2018 at 8:16 am - Reply

        Yet, you provided no tremendous insight into what is going to happen this weekend. You posted pictures of the GFS and commented on a Canadian model.

      • Jim April 9, 2018 at 8:18 am - Reply

        What scenario are you wrong about his weekend?

      • NoSnowflake April 9, 2018 at 9:18 am - Reply

        So if your theory can say whether it will be “dry or wet” or whether there will be a “major storm or not,” then put your money where your mouth is:

        What will happen this weekend?

        Further, you mention it can do these things “hours, days, weeks, months into the future,” then where is your May severe weather forecast? It’s already April 9. In a couple of days, May will already be within model range, making any claims that a forecast is solely “LRC-based” a bit suspect.

        To have it be truly LRC-based, you’d need to issue the forecast before the period comes into the model domain. But I don’t see that happening much lately.

        Did the winter forecast miss (you forecast 21″ and we got 7″ or so?) make you gun-shy?

        • JoeK April 9, 2018 at 3:55 pm - Reply


          “winter forecast miss” are you being serious right now? There were 4 parts to the LRC forecast. 3 were spot on and you categorize that as a miss? Dry conditions, accurate. Below average temperatures, accurate, 7-9 systems, accurate! The 21 inches was off, but the systems were there and on time according the the LRC. How on earth can you not see the cyclical nature of the weather? How can you not see the same patterns? Yes, to your point, forecasting the precise amount of snow didn’t materialize however, I think attempting to forecast any amount of snow for an entire season is silly and is done by meteorologists to answer the call of their viewers. So many factors influence the amount of snow we get. I firmly believe had Gary hit that on the nose in one storm, you would still come on here and say he got lucky. Regardless, 3 of the 4 components of the winter forecast were spot on, 75% accuracy ( at the very least) overall and you pick the one trivial piece to focus on which tells any intelligent person reading your posts all about your objectives with regard to the LRC. By your own admission, you are not viewing the LRC scientifically. Good grief some of you folks need to seriously get a life!

          • Ben April 9, 2018 at 4:28 pm - Reply

            This is spot on, JoeK. It seems there are some people who don’t understand the LRC. Nothing known to humankind can predict every element of a storm this far out. Apparently, if Gary can’t tell them exactly how much snow will fall in every single place within the KC area, it isn’t a useful tool.

  3. NoBeachHere April 9, 2018 at 8:00 am - Reply

    Interesting storm yesterday, actually turned out kind of nice.

    What I really like to see is all these small features we have seen all winter, now starting to produce a bit since there is moisture available through the atmosphere.

  4. Emaw April 9, 2018 at 8:03 am - Reply

    7-day on the KSHB site kind of contradicts this blog.

    • Jim April 9, 2018 at 8:12 am - Reply

      Because the prediction is, “Can we make it three in a row next Sunday?” He didn’t actually make any sort of forecast or prediction even though it been on his radar for months. If it doesn’t snow, it was only the Canadian model, I never said it was going to snow. If it does snow, he called it 3 months ago. He likes to set up these no lose scenarios. As of right now, in what scenario is he wrong about the weekend?

      • LYITC41 April 9, 2018 at 8:32 am - Reply

        Hear ya. Last week someone called this “Hindsight 2020” jokingly but unfortunately it is true sometimes. A “twist” here, a “seasonal difference there, etc.” and , voila, you’re right again. That is what the people who are on the fence or outright don’t believe have a problem with. It is an interesting theory that with a lot of fine tuning can probably become quite useful someday. GL himself said we are still learning.

        • MMike April 9, 2018 at 8:46 am - Reply


          He’s not forecasting one way or the other on any certain solution. When he says that the storm for this weekend has been on the LRC radar for sometime he means that it is part of the cycling pattern. All he did today was show you the potential for this weekend based off of the pattern. Yes, severe weather is likely E and SE of here, colder air behind the system, the potential for more wintry weather in the plains. You want a specific forecast for Saturday and Sunday? 6-7 days out???….

          Right now, you know that we have a huge warm-up in play, you know that a storm is due in late this week into the weekend, you know that after the very warm 3 day stretch, colder air will wrap back into the area this weekend. How much rain/snow will there be? Come, on, you know we can’t get that perfect from this distance. He’s just saying that he is confident based off of his theory, that the storm, which is showing up on the data is a real possibility. The exact outcome for your location will have to be updated as we get closer.

          If you read back through the discussion over the past two weeks, Gary talked about a severe weather outbreak April 13th-17th..most likely off to our east and then again the 24th through the 30th. He pick these dates based off of his theory of the cycling pattern.

          • Jim April 9, 2018 at 9:05 am - Reply

            I get it. What value does the LRC really provide though. My weather channel app tell me there is going to be a warmup with week. It tells me there is a chance for thunderstorms Friday and a cool down with chance or precip over the weekend. I don’t need him to say it is going to snow 3.1 inches in my area, but he didn’t even say if it is going to snow. He didn’t predict anything at all.

            I’ll ask you the same question. What scenario happens this weekend that you would say “Gary was wrong?”

            • Jim April 9, 2018 at 9:05 am - Reply


              • Anonymous by choice April 9, 2018 at 9:18 am

                It’s really too bad, Jim, that you are a detractor on this blog. You have no chance. Mower Mike will put you down. I will recommend you stay quiet or he will eventually threaten to beat you up if you don’t come around, as he has to me. Little man-itis. He’s all blow and no go.

              • MMike April 9, 2018 at 9:25 am

                Hi Jim,

                How could the LRC/Gary be wrong? Well, no severe weather off to our South and East, no storm in the plains and a warmer weekend with no snow anywhere near. That’s three big scenario’s where you can come back on and say the LRC /Gary missed that.

                As of today, using his cycling pattern, he mentions that what the data is showing this morning the LRC backs. That’s why he says it fits perfectly. This should tell you that what he explains today in the blog as potentials this week and weekend are what he expects to happen. What is he telling us…to be clear, a huge warm-up, a storm Friday into the weekend with a strong cold front. Severe weather off to our S and E, a colder weekend with the possibility of some wintry weather.

              • JoeK April 9, 2018 at 9:42 am


                Mike did no such thing. He was simply trying to provide an explanation to Jims comment. I am beyond confused why anybody would continue to come to a weather blog that they believe to be a hoax? You hide so that you feel protected in your “safe space” and constantly attack Gary and the LRC. Of course there are those of us that have spent the necessary time to study and learn the LRC that will defend it. Anybody on here can literally get a calendar, write down the dates each front and system comes through and then watch as they cycle back through. Where it gets complicated is when you are trying to fine tune it for a specific area. Is it easy? NO, but it is there regardless of how much you refuse to see it.

                Jim, keep questioning the LRC, you are right to do so as science demands it. I had some of the same opinions as well, but spent the necessary time analyzing the LRC and finally started to see its validity. It really is frustrating and exciting at the same time.

            • JoeK April 9, 2018 at 9:23 am - Reply


              The value the LRC provides is that we know when to expect storm systems to cycle back through months ahead of time. We know when cold/warm fronts will cycle back through as well. I have used it with great success for years. If your expectation is that an exact forecast is given weeks or months ahead, you are expecting too much. Blending the LRC with models and knowledge/experience is where precision comes from. Take this system for example, write it down on your calendar and watch it cycle back through in 47 days. We can expect a cold front (although not as strong) and a storm system to be in our area. This is the value the LRC adds that other weather sources don’t/can’t. Hope this helps

              • Jim April 9, 2018 at 9:39 am

                Like I said, I don’t need an exact forecast. Is it going to snow this weekend? That doesn’t seem to be too exact. That would be a pretty general forecast question.

                The only value the LRC provides me according to you is I will know there will be a storm cycling somewhere in my area during a certain period of time and I will know if there are going to be cool downs or warmups coming maybe.

                That is fine, but that is not what Gary has built the LRC up to be, at all. He has made it a much bigger deal.

          • NoSnowflake April 9, 2018 at 9:21 am - Reply

            Bingo — a big storm and he’ll say “look – we knew it would happen, look back to blogs like the one on Monday, 04/09!!” or if it doesn’t happen he can say “We never said it would; in fact, we showed you models and then said “but all winter we’ve missed out because of the LRC” and this is just another example!”

            Either way, it can be hoisted up the flagpole as a win.

            It’s pretty ingenious, really. At least if you count on your viewers not really paying close attention to the nuances.

  5. MMike April 9, 2018 at 8:04 am - Reply

    WOW! What a first 8 days of April…….

    Record breaking cold, 3 different days it snowed and we’re 2 for 2 in April with it snowing on Sunday. Yesterday was quite fascinating. I was all snow west of Liberty and it came in two parts. I thought maybe after it stopped around 2pm that we would just have a few showers the rest of the day. NOPE. The second round of snow came in and it snowed hard for 2 hours. Given it was April and 3:30 in the afternoon, I thought we would have a tough time accumulating. However, it started snowing and it dropped to 32 degrees. Snowed until about 6pm. I measured just under 2 inches in the grass and on my snowboard which I placed on my deck. Snow stuck to all the trees/signs/objects. It was beautiful! We still have a rather extensive snow pack this morning up there. I drove down to my office in North Kansas City this morning, NO SNOW on the ground. I have recorded 3.1 inches of snow in April so far and now have a total of 10.4 since Dec. 1st. A few of my drivers that are in this morning that live out east of here measured close to 3 inches.

    Jeff/Gary’s forecast yesterday was perfect. A dusting to 2 inches. NWS had no accumulation in their forecast. Matter of fact, they only had a 50 percent chance of rain or snow.

    The long range data modeled this pattern well from 2 weeks out. Now, it had some trouble forecasting snow amounts and placement of them for each event, but, that is quite normal. The 18z NAM on Saturday actually modeled the snowfall amounts quite well yesterday for the northland.

    Looking forward to the huge warm-up this week.

  6. Staci April 9, 2018 at 8:13 am - Reply

    How about last freeze of the season?

    • Snow Miser April 9, 2018 at 8:14 am - Reply

      June. :-\

  7. Mr. Pete April 9, 2018 at 8:22 am - Reply

    How on earth was yesterday’s snow event measurable? We never even got the dusting here as nothing stuck to the ground.

    • Snow Miser April 9, 2018 at 8:26 am - Reply

      I live a few miles southeast of the stadiums and work in downtown Independence. As I drove to work this morning I was surprised at how much more snow they got in Independence than I got at my house just a few miles away. So, I presume they got even more snow at the airport.

      • Snow Miser April 9, 2018 at 8:27 am - Reply

        And BTW, at my house I got about a quarter inch. In downtown Independence it looks to be more than half an inch.

    • Tim April 9, 2018 at 10:25 am - Reply

      We had almost 2 inches on the ground in Lone Jack– completely covering the grass blades. I left Independence around 6pm to drive home in the snow, and it was amazing looking at the differences in road conditions. By the time I reached HWY 7 on 50.. it was starting to stick to the roads and the bridges were completely white. So I think south and east of the metro may have had the best conditions for quick accumulation.

  8. LYITC41 April 9, 2018 at 8:39 am - Reply

    From reading some of the other posts it sounds like they got more up north than we did down south in JOCO. Hope that was the case for STJ too for you guys that needed it the most.

    • Kurt April 9, 2018 at 9:22 am - Reply

      From the official reporting station in St. Joseph, the melted snow total was .06 for a month to date of .2 and a year to date of 2.01, normal is 4.46 and we are -2.45 for the year. I believe I got more liquid from the amount of snow, but probably only around .2 at the most. I also had .3 from last Sunday of liquid equivalent, so I am fairy better month to date about 6 miles from the reporting station, but still isn’t making much of a dent in our deficits.

      I was out on Saturday trying to do some yard work, digging up some thistles from the field next door that decided to seed themselves as it’s still to cool to spray. You couldn’t tell we’d had any precip from Easter weekend as it was bone dry after it soaked in, we had the winds and the freezes.

      Hoping when we finally get a settled pattern with consistent warmth, we can get some thunderstorm complexes to turn this around.

  9. Kathy April 9, 2018 at 9:10 am - Reply

    Up in northern Clay and Ray Counties, we had a beautiful snow and I was able to take some great pictures because it also stuck to the trees. I’d say we got close to two inches; however, I noticed that as I drove into downtown KC today, those amounts diminished to nothing. I am sure it snowed hard but perhaps it was a few degrees warmer downtown than it was way up north. Anyhow, it was pretty. Just stayed inside and watched it pile up.

  10. MMike April 9, 2018 at 9:11 am - Reply

    As far as Gary’s winter forecast: (KC area)

    The (3) major components of a long range winter forecast:

    Temps/Total moisture/snowfall

    The LRC forecast called for below average temps and below average moisture. That is exactly what occurred.

    The same forecast called for 21 inches of snow….clearly we will fall short of that unless the Canadian model is on to something next weekend(LOL)
    Officially we’re at around 7.7 inches of snow for the year. I’m 18 miles from the airport and have a little over 10 inches total for the season.

    There was at least 18 different days where snow was falling or in the area…how in the heck did we not score 3-5 inches in 2-3 of those storms. That’s hard to do. We had the cold and the events, we just never got the meat of anyone of those storms. One storm comes to mind, the ULL that affected us on March 19th, we were in the COMMA HEAD!! It was cold all winter for every chance of snow, but, this storm, raining heavy at 35 degrees under a perfectly tracked storm system. BAD LUCK!! Great moisture though….

    Another time comes to mind was the first 10 days of FEB. Remember, several little ripples missed KC just to the north. They trucked from NC KS, SC NEB along the MO/IOWA border through eastern IOWA up to Chi-town. 10+ inches fell in those areas in a week’s time. We scored the SB Sunday snow, but missed every other snow that was so close to KC that 10 day stretch.

    So, the 21 inch snow forecast was wrong, no doubt, but, I think a lot of bad luck was involved. We had a very active winter, just a bit off on timing. I know the snow contractors around the KC area aren’t complaining, plenty of small events. We had above average events worked.

    In the end, the winter forecast as a whole was pretty darn accurate. Cold/dry winter with a chance of up to 21 inches of snow. I know that 21 inches of snow jumps out to many, but, that was only one level of the winter forecast, don’t forget the other levels of the forecast that were accurate.

    • Rockdoc April 9, 2018 at 9:31 pm - Reply

      Great recap MMike. So glad you bring things into perspective.

  11. REAL HUMEDUDE April 9, 2018 at 9:13 am - Reply

    I’m so done with this month! It has sucked, currently sucks and will continue to suck hard. We can only get 1-2 days of sustained warmth, follow by a week of cold. Every weekend has been a complete bust, I’m stuck working in miserable conditions week after week. And of course the week days are only random day we can get nice weather around here. My daughter has a birthday party on 4/22 , we have been planning it to be outside with a bounce house and other outdoor activities. What do you want to bet it will be miserable that Sunday as well? So, so, so done with this craptastic weather pattern. CAN’T GET ANY FISH TO BITE IN THIS CRAP……..I’M LOSING IT > ~——————

    • Jason April 9, 2018 at 9:37 am - Reply


  12. Anonymous by choice April 9, 2018 at 9:14 am - Reply

    Jim makes an excellent point and gets throttled. The LRC is cited as the great predictor of these 2 recent snows and now next week fits perfectly? As amazing as the weather has been in April, why wasn’t this predicted 2-4 months ago?

    “Let’s make it two straight Sundays with measurable snow in KC. Can we make it three in a row next Sunday? Yes, there is a storm that fits the LRC perfectly for next weekend. It has been on our LRC radar for months now, and in fact the severe weather risk fits perfectly to be off to the east and southeast of KC later Friday – Sunday as well.”

    Hind sight back slapping is great theater on this blog, but even bigger theater is the amount of genuflecting that is done on here to the mighty LRC, which has peredicted nothing.

    • MMike April 9, 2018 at 9:31 am - Reply


      Not true at all, we are just debating with him. He has his opinion and others have there’s.

      You never come in and join, you just troll. Name call, say things about me that aren’t true..etc.

      • Jim April 9, 2018 at 10:11 am - Reply

        I mean this post attacks him personally without commenting on his valid points. Pot, meet kettle.

  13. NoSnowflake April 9, 2018 at 9:23 am - Reply

    If the LRC had really predicted these little snows, it would have called for 7 inches of snow this winter, not some total in the 20s.

  14. Troy Newman April 9, 2018 at 9:41 am - Reply

    I think the LRC theory has been very convincing this year. It feels like the beginning of March not April but that should be no surprise. We have had a very persistent NW flow since this cycle began. Years that have that it takes a long time for spring to show up. I can remember other years like this when I want to plant or fish and it seems like it takes forever to get 3 or 4 good days in a row.

    I work with a guy who grew up in Clear Lake, IA. They average 48″of snow but where at only 24″ right before Easter. Since then they have had 26″ to bring them up to 50 and have a shot at more this weekend.

  15. MMike April 9, 2018 at 9:43 am - Reply

    Hello NoSnowflake,

    I hear what you are saying. But, I explained in another post that how close was this pattern to producing 21+ inches of snow. We had plenty of cold, we had plenty of storms/disturbances all winter long. You have to agree that it seems impossible to get the least amount from each storm….I mean every single storm!!! The pattern was there to reach that 21 inches… wiggle here a wiggle there, 50 miles here 50 miles there. It’s not like we weren’t even close to snowing this winter, it actually snowed a lot of days.

    In the end, it was wrong. Not arguing that at all!!

  16. REAL HUMEDUDE April 9, 2018 at 12:00 pm - Reply

    Some of the drier parts of KS got a decent drink yesterday and then again this morning. I’m curious of anyone out that way can report any totals, looked light but beggars cant be choosers. Nobody will be getting out of their rainfall deficits until we get some real thunderstorm action going, that’s what turns our dry spells around in a hurry. Convective rains cant be duplicated by any other means…….

    • Roger April 10, 2018 at 1:36 am - Reply

      Dodge City: 0.23″
      Wichita: 0.14″

      Since Friday.

  17. KirksvilleDave April 9, 2018 at 12:54 pm - Reply

    Kirksville got about 1” yesterday, which measured out to .11”. Overall we had about 18” of snow, 6” of which occurred in April. We are about 1” of rainfall ahead for the year. This pattern is a change from the past two years, where rain was low and snow low. It does seem that with the Gulf opening up, things may not be as dry as they have been, & hopefully keep spreading westward.

  18. Bobbie April 9, 2018 at 12:56 pm - Reply

    Lol @ Hindsight 2020

  19. Mr. Pete April 9, 2018 at 1:31 pm - Reply

    Looks like another miserable weekend ahead.

  20. Remembercody April 9, 2018 at 1:33 pm - Reply

    I live in Independence (39th st between Crysler and Blue Ridge, basically just a couple streets north of I-70). I measured exactly an inch on my elevated outdoor glass lawn table after the snow finally stopped. I know for sure it was more than that because the first little round from the morning had melted some. The real accumulation was later in the afternoon evening, but I will tell you my location in Independence turned white for sure. It stuck to everything, accumulated on grass, cars and elevated surfaces except for roads.

  21. Kurt April 9, 2018 at 2:26 pm - Reply


    some areas of Kansas got .25 to .5 in precip (liquid equivalent), pretty much the middle of the state going east to west south of Salina over to Hays and around Goodland KS. Also from the Lawrence area down south and east over the the KC area. The driest parts of the state in southwest Kansas and the southern tier of Kansas appear to be mostly missed with nothing to .01 to .10.

    This also verifies my thinking that I had about .2 to .25 in precip yesterday just south of St. Joseph. Helps a little but a long hole to dig ourselves out of up here.

    • MMike April 9, 2018 at 3:06 pm - Reply


      Like Hume said, just a few good thunderstorm chances will get you back in the game. We need to get the warmth in here for that to happen. You can still catch up pretty quick as of now, but, you are right, you lose ground much faster this time of year. So, we need to get it going soon.

      It’s been so cold and winter has been very slow to leave, that we’re still in the very early stages of spring…VERY EARLY. Hell, I think my yard is trying to go dormant again. Pretty amazing cold this month and I think we’re far from done with it….unfortunately.

      Best of luck.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE April 9, 2018 at 3:12 pm - Reply

      At the same time,you just need 1 big thunderstorm to dump 3″ in an hour and you’ll have water running everywhere. It’s going to happen with this pattern once we get Thunderstorms cracking up, just need warmth for convection as the systems are there and just need the other ingredients now

  22. Emaw April 9, 2018 at 4:58 pm - Reply

    There we go the 7-day has been updated to prove that I’m on to something with my new theory! In case you haven’t heard it’s called “The ruin another Sunday with crappy weather theory”. It’s money!

  23. MMike April 9, 2018 at 5:08 pm - Reply


    Lol…I guess we can be thankful for the next 4 days..huh?

  24. KCTeach April 9, 2018 at 9:26 pm - Reply

    Here is looking to Wednesday and Thursday for some warmth and outside activities. We will all have to soak it up before the next system comes in for the weekend. I will say, the snow yesterday evening was beautiful with those big snowflakes. The early morning drive from the southland to the city was beautiful.

  25. Rockdoc April 9, 2018 at 9:45 pm - Reply

    I’m here in wonderful Palm Springs where the ridge is in action. Temps today in the valley were ~90 and tomorrow it may hit 100. Thank god for airco.

    They are expecting a cool down to near normal temps Thursday into the weekend and quite possibly next week. Just in time for the warm temps to spread east. Don’t know how long the ridge/warmup will last in the Midwest but it would be funny if I left the freezer, arrived into the frying pan, and then returned to the freezer. Sounds like cooking with frozen leftovers 😂

Leave A Comment