Good morning bloggers,
Another storm is targeting the northeast. Why is New York City getting targeted again, while Amarillo, TX is still sitting at 0.01″ of precipitation since October 13th? The LRC provides the answer, the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis is finally peer reviewed, and here is the link to the paper out now, and in the Journal of Climatology and Weather Forecasting: Link To The Peer Reviewed Paper
I presented the hypothesis at the American Meteorological Society conference in Austin, TX in January and showed this bold forecast that has already verified:
A storm hit on President’s Day weekend, and it will have hit two to four more times as well. How would you rate this forecast? I would give it an A+. And, the new hypothesis is hardly new to many of you reading this blog, as we know it provides the answer to why Kansas City continues to get missed. We have not even forecasted any big storm systems for KC, why? Because this pattern just hasn’t supported it, yes the cycling pattern continues. Now, there is more hope of spring rains than snow for the KC region even though our chances of snow are far from over. There is even a chance today. Take a look at the overnight European Model valid at 6 PM this evening:
This map above shows the snow showers near KC Tuesday afternoon and evening, but look at what happens to this storm as it moves east.
Forecast valid 7 PM eastern time Wednesday:
That is a 989 mb, 29.20″ surface low, which is weaker than a few of the bigger storm systems this season, but still quite strong, and enough to produce some very heavy snow. The forecast is still quite tricky for New York City and Boston, Philadelphia and more of the big cities. The rain/snow line will be near the coast
How does this fit the cycling pattern? Just look at the pattern in January, around 47 to 48 days before this storm, and you will see a strikingly similar pattern, as we have showcased since October in this blog dozens of times.
So, what is next? Will Amarillo ever break their dry spell? How about Dodge City, KS; will they get more than their 1″ of snow they have had all season? Will Kansas City suddenly get wet when spring begins like last year? We will see how the spring version of this pattern produces. As Gary England said years ago, “Lezak, well he called me Lowzack for fun, I saw it….It’s the same, but different”. Gary saw the pattern when a storm was about to hit OKC and I tried to explain that it would hit them for sure, and it did. It is a big puzzle, and we are cracking the code. We will get the same pattern this spring, but there will be seasonal differences.
Also in the paper, click on the link at the beginning of this blog, is the answer for why El Niño and La Niña forecasts failed the previous two winters, and how knowledge of the cycling pattern provided the answer to make a more accurate forecast of the ending of the western drought last winter. Let us know if you have any questions.
Thank you for participating in this blog experience featuring the LRC, and for spending a few minutes of your day reading this entry. Have a great Tuesday. There may be a few snowflakes, and this is quite a difference from a year ago when we had a significant severe weather outbreak with 11 tornadoes near KC, including an EF-3 over Oak Grove, MO, and and EF-2 in Smithville.