Another Major Northeastern Storm

/Another Major Northeastern Storm

Another Major Northeastern Storm

Good morning,

Well, we did it again last night.  The thunderstorms formed two to three counties east of Kansas City and moved away.  A cold front is now moving through this morning. Some rain showers associated with the front are possible.

1

This system moving by now will become another big storm in the east.  Yes, this fast moving system this morning will likely form into another rather significant storm near the northeast coast.  The weather pattern continues to cycle regularly and the same spots that have had an exciting winter keep getting hit by the storm systems, while the same spots that have been missed all season continue to get missed as spring approaches. This next storm, if anyone wants to check is exactly on the 47-day cycle near the east coast. Just go back and look at January 18th and compare it to what is about to happen. It is just incredible.  If you go a step further, and I will do the comparison for you, just look at what happened with this big storm that just hit the east and also out west:

LRC Storm Comparisons Cycles 2 & 4.

Now, did that block really help that storm system intensify near the east and west coasts? I believe that the answer is a yes, but there are other factors that go into this, including seasonal differences and other factors.  This block did have an influence, likely a pretty big one, but it was still just an influence. The LRC is still the centerpiece of the big atmospheric puzzle.  The west coast is getting some noticeable effects, and quite obviously the northeastern part of the nation and the Great Lakes has been in impact areas. Kansas City and areas to the south and west of Missouri have been influenced by one of the quasi-permanent ridges aloft that has prevented every winter storm from materializing in our area.

So, this next storm forming in the northeast by Wednesday may produce some more snow or a cold heavy rain in the big cities, such as New York City and Boston. The forecast will be quite challenging. For Kansas City, I wish we had a challenge like this week, but our challenge has been will it rain or snow small amounts or will it go by dry.  Now, remember last year? It suddenly got wet in late March. There are still more storm systems in our near future, but will they be hits or misses.  Amarillo, TX is still sitting at 0.01″ since October 13th and Dodge City, KS is still sitting at 1″ of snow for the entire season. More on these stats later this week.

Today’s storm:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_4

Look at today’s storm, above. This map shows a strong surface low, by 6 PM tonight, located over South Dakota. Kansas City will have a west wind. The model runs that had some wrap around snow have been way off for KC, but there still could be a snow or rain shower later tonight or Tuesday as a disturbance rotates around this developing system. Yes, it is a developing storm that looks so similar to one that formed 47 to 48 days earlier in January.  And, you can see the previous eastern storm out to sea just spinning around over the Atlantic.

The mid-week storm:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_11

This next storm blows up and intensifies just in time to create an incredible weather experience again for the weather enthusiasts near the northeast coast.  What a winter they have had with ups and downs, warm and cold, and lots of snow.  And, this storm only looks more impressive as we get closer to it.  Let’s see how this sets up for them, but back home in KC we are having another rather dry system move by.  The cold front will move through this morning with dropping temperatures during the next few hours.

Here are my favorite two pictures from my snow chase 2018 trip out to Lake Tahoe:

icicle

snowscene

I did get my fill of snow, but even this storm underperformed based on the model forecasts.  Why? It never really formed into an intense surface cyclone over the Pacific before moving in, and while I was in Tahoe, the locals said it was their first storm of the entire winter, and it was March. My goodness. But, I had around 18″ of snow, so I more snow in two days than I had seen in the last three winters combined.  And, bloggers, our chances for snow aren’t done yet, but it seems like many of you are ready to move on from this “miserable and frustrating” winter we just experienced.  One good snowstorm would certainly make many of us feel better, but time is running out soon.

Thank you for sharing in this Action Weather Blog experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Have a great start to the week.

Gary

2018-03-06T00:33:48+00:00March 5th, 2018|General|41 Comments

41 Comments

  1. Three7s March 5, 2018 at 7:47 am - Reply

    Will there ever be a year that we aren’t negatively affected by one of these ridges? That’s the bad part about being in the middle of the country. Either systems strengthen after they get to us, like this year, or storms weaken AS they get to us.. I’m still amazed this area actually averages the amount of snow it does, though I think those averages are greatly skewed.

  2. REAL HUMEDUDE March 5, 2018 at 7:49 am - Reply

    Cycle 2 was a bust, so obviously cycle 4 was going to be a challenge from the get go. I’m not expecting much to materialize until cycle 5, but should be just in time for growing season

  3. NoBeachHere March 5, 2018 at 7:54 am - Reply

    Just ready for spring.
    Thank You for the write up Gary.
    Have a great day everyone!

  4. Lary Gezak March 5, 2018 at 8:00 am - Reply

    We can’t even get RAIN! Yikes!

  5. Urbanity March 5, 2018 at 8:17 am - Reply

    Gary, it’s interesting that we call for storms to cycle back through, but with no snow/rain since Oct 7th for some of your friends out west it seems that there are no storms in any of these cycles. The storms are not developing here for sure, so in essence your talking about storms around us. The ridge is building back in the west it appears on the GFS, is there any reason to believe the ridge won’t stay in place for the next 6 months? Is the western 1/2 of this country going up in flames this year?

    I think are only hope is the transition to a enso neutral stage in the next few months, but I don’t know if that’s actually a good thing. What is the best influence we can have this spring and summer to bring back rain and keep the record heat away? Seems if the lower pressures over SE Canada stays in place that we would have several cool spells throughout the summer, but I don’t see how we get moisture return with that setup.

  6. LYITC41 March 5, 2018 at 8:33 am - Reply

    Very brief rain shower here in midtown from a very small line extending south down the state line. Better than nothing at all I suppose

  7. Steve March 5, 2018 at 8:45 am - Reply

    Not getting even sufficient rain is scary! What’s coming if any this summer?

  8. Lary Gezak March 5, 2018 at 8:58 am - Reply

    I don’t know if this makes sense, but maybe the atmosphere right now isn’t very supportive of any convection. We had a surge of low clouds overnight which would likely limit any precip chances, plus this is such a weak front. We were also in the dry slot of the system, which is out of our control. Once we shake the 30s and 40s, and start to permanently see 50s-70s, and these fronts come through, I think we’ll do better with these storms. For example. the GFS has a system in ten days, when it will be nearly 70, and likely thunderstorms.

  9. REAL HUMEDUDE March 5, 2018 at 9:07 am - Reply

    Relax people there in fact storms in the region, I got 4″ for the month of Feb all in one system. Digging post holes yesterday was very easy, and every hole filled with Alot of water in short order. The rain will come this year in cycle #5, I need somebody to calculate when that cycle starts as that’s when we are going to get our big Spring rains.
    Anybody got the most current EURO? it had a big storm here in a week, GFS has been having on again off again runs with that storm some look good others do not. Since its cycle 4, I’ll lean towards a bust there. Is there any doubt every other cycle is a mirror?

    • Urbanity March 5, 2018 at 9:35 am - Reply

      Hume, you are the very rare exception, I’m glad you got the rain (I can’t believe you got 4″ of precip, that is such an anomaly in this years weather), but outside your little island we are talking major major deficits. I’m not worried about getting precip, I sold my boat so not worried about the lake, I’m not a farmer but do depend a little on their welfare and have several farmer friends (mostly cattle though), my yard was destroyed last year by the drought, and I have much bigger things to worry about, but I do like to have precip around for air quality as I think everyone does. I know you think things will change for the better, and they may for a month or two, but long term for this year I am really wondering what it’s going to look like. I hope Bastardi is correct in that this year mimics 1962 which ended up to be a wet summer for the southern plains. Gary said that’s not going to happen though when he read my 1962 comment a few days ago.

      • Troy Newman March 5, 2018 at 12:13 pm - Reply

        Bastardi also thinks the heat will be centered over the Southern Plains this year. Knowing what the LRC has done and where an extreme drought exists that looks very possible to me. I think that dry soil really feeds back into the system creating even hotter conditions than would normally occur. What we probably need to hope for is that the anti-cyclone spends some time farther West allowing a NW flow which is what we need for rain in the summer. Its just really hard to predict summer as rain comes from a different direction then than it usually does in the rest of the year.

        • Urbanity March 5, 2018 at 12:52 pm - Reply

          Hmmm, so he thinks a lot of things this winter are like 1962, but thinks that the summer will be like some other year. I give up.:)

          • Troy Newman March 5, 2018 at 4:49 pm - Reply

            I think he was using the analog for March 1962. I don’t know what he is using past that I don’t follow that closely. He has said twice that he expects the heat and ridging to Center on TX at least through spring. Not sure if he expects it to last the entire summer. We sometimes have good luck up here with TX based heat as we can end up on the edge of it and get a lot of rain. Of course you might be a little too close to the fire down there. If its further North or more expansive it would be worse for everybody and I am sure that’s a possibility too. I do have a hard time connecting summer weather with the rest of the year as often its seems like it does its own thing. The LRC is there but so far North that the impacts are different.

        • KS Jones March 5, 2018 at 1:31 pm - Reply

          Wichita Falls, Texas had 100 days of triple digit air temperature in 2011, and Dallas had 71 days above 100° that same year. Sun-baked, hot, dry soil contributed to those record air temperatures.

          • Troy Newman March 5, 2018 at 4:50 pm - Reply

            That sounds awful.

    • ksgardengal March 5, 2018 at 10:56 am - Reply

      With the assumption Cycle 1 started on Oct 7 and going strictly 47 days for each cycle, April 13 should be the start of Cycle 5. Since it varies between 47-48, you would have to think that April 15 would really be the actual start of Cycle 5, accounting for .5 days per cycle in the first 4 cycles.

      • REAL HUMEDUDE March 5, 2018 at 11:53 am - Reply

        Thank you! That’s about perfect for the farmers to get their crops planted and then have them get the big drink they need. Also prime for warm weather and grass growing, so maybe a little late start to Spring of its dry till then. The rain machine will crank up guys, just be patient as we deal with the bad part of this pattern which will be cycles 2, 4, and 6. Watch out for cycle 6 though, we will have some nastier dry spells there and maybe our first 100F day as well in that period.

  10. Rod March 5, 2018 at 9:43 am - Reply

    Gary you mentioned storms set up two or three counties east of Kansas City last night. I got woken up late last night to thunder, 30-40 mph winds, & heavy rain slaming into our bed room windows they face SW & picked up 0.73” of rain so a great drink to help the fertilizer application. I’m just curious how many times this fall & winter I’ve picked up higher rainfall totals than KC near Columbia but continue to get missed when it’s cold enough to snow & still sitting up 3” for the winter, just incredible!! Any hope for snow this coming weekend which is my birthday? Holding on to hope even though it seems slim.Have a great day!!

    Rod, Ashland, MO

  11. Ron Moore March 5, 2018 at 9:48 am - Reply

    Morning Gary,

    If you ever want to ride out a nor’easter in New England we have a place on the lake in south New Hampshire. Simply amazing watching these storms as thy come through. Now you have a place to stay and a fellow weather buff to freak out with! I drive my family crazy lol.

  12. Michael Casteel March 5, 2018 at 10:08 am - Reply

    I recorded .11″ this cold rainy Monday morning up here in Maryville. I am jealous of you Gary! That much snow looked awesome! Maybe Mother Nature has one last snowstorm for the season. Have a great day bloggers.
    Michael

  13. terry March 5, 2018 at 10:14 am - Reply

    I never have giving up on any snow and yes I would like one snow before winter is over.

    • DaveC March 5, 2018 at 11:01 am - Reply

      Spring Equinox 2018 in Northern Hemisphere will be at 11:15 AM on Tuesday, March 20

    • Stl78(winon,mn) March 5, 2018 at 11:44 am - Reply

      Terry, u wouldnt give up on snow in arizona buddy but thats ok i appreciate your enthusiasm! Hope u see some white gold

  14. f00dl3 March 5, 2018 at 10:30 am - Reply

    So the danger to not receiving any measurable precipitation but getting alot of north east flow is northeast flow is generally cooler in the winter because the air mass is dryer than southeast flow. With the LRC cutting us off ridge out west, that means that this summer our north east flow will be a bone dry type one – kind of like 2012. The dewpoints will be great – heat indexes would rarely ever exceed the air temperature dewpoints in the 20s to 40s, but the air temps will be 95-110 as the anticyclone builds in and dominates the western and central plains up to the Dakotas.

  15. f00dl3 March 5, 2018 at 10:32 am - Reply

    It will also be more difficult to get airmass thunderstorms if our airmass is bone dry. This was a problem in 2012 as well.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE March 5, 2018 at 11:13 am - Reply

      Where are you coming up with Northeast flow?
      We don’t get NE flow in the summer, it just doesn’t happen
      You need a very specific storm path here to get NE flow, we might get that a handful of days per year. I just don’t see where that has been a reoccurring theme this year or any year I’ve followed weather the past 30+. The Great lakes region gets that much more often than us due to Hudson bay Low pressure, not here though

      • f00dl3 March 5, 2018 at 4:39 pm - Reply

        Yeah meant northwest. Not awake at 10 AM = trouble.

      • Troy Newman March 5, 2018 at 4:55 pm - Reply

        NW flow in summer is my favorite. It seems sometime in June all of our weather that has been coming from the SW starts coming from the NW. It has been my hope we would see some of that in summer as its been the a big player in this LRC.

  16. Richard March 5, 2018 at 11:16 am - Reply

    This wind is making things worse ! Drier !

  17. Mike Holm March 5, 2018 at 12:38 pm - Reply

    Urbanity your right on it, it’s the ENSO. By mid April it should be neutral. This winter has been text book if you look at where the ENSO conditions have favored precipitation. I think the pattern is going to be totally different. All those systems that started to our east should become more normal.
    To me a neutral ENSO seems to be troublesome for LRC. Is this the biggest piece of the LRC puzzle? Or all of the pieces equal?

  18. Stl78(winon,mn) March 5, 2018 at 1:48 pm - Reply

    We r having wind gust of 55 mph being reported and slowing and or halting our trains. When the snow moves in im sure visibility will be a big issue. They r still callin for 4 to 8 and with this wind and heavy nature of the snow im guessing il be working overnight clearing trees from the tracks. Im sure power outages will b common.

    • Michael Casteel March 5, 2018 at 1:59 pm - Reply

      be careful out there!

  19. Stl78(winon,mn) March 5, 2018 at 2:13 pm - Reply

    Will do, thank u mr. Casteel!

  20. Richard March 5, 2018 at 3:50 pm - Reply

    A high of only 38 here tomorrow on the kshb 7 day.
    Any rain or snow with this one ?

    • Gary March 5, 2018 at 3:59 pm - Reply

      A few snow showers are possible, maybe a few rain drops.

      Gary

  21. Stl78(winon,mn) March 5, 2018 at 4:28 pm - Reply

    Im suprised we r not under a blizzard warning right now!

    • Richard March 5, 2018 at 7:18 pm - Reply

      Stl
      Looks like you are getting it good now

  22. Stl78(winon,mn) March 5, 2018 at 7:39 pm - Reply

    Yes richard, it’s reminiscent of the blizzard in Kansas City back in 09 i beleive it was

    • Richard March 5, 2018 at 8:08 pm - Reply

      Stay safe
      R you home or working the rails ?

      • Stl78(winon,mn) March 5, 2018 at 8:23 pm - Reply

        Richard, im home at the moment but expecting a phone call. We r on call for bad weather

  23. Richard March 5, 2018 at 8:14 pm - Reply

    This guy thinks the next nor’easter will be worse than the other day.
    More power outages more snow
    I am getting into this twitter. I like looking at tge wx stuff. Not competitors to Gary.

    eweather and crankyweather guy

    Is he crying wolf here ?

    https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/970832626914414593?s=20

    https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/970840459412168704?s=20

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