The March Wind Machine

/The March Wind Machine

The March Wind Machine

Good Saturday bloggers,

Gary has been snow chasing at Lake Tahoe as a strong storm system enters from the Pacific Ocean. That system is going to track into the middle of the USA by Sunday night, exiting Wednesday. It will act like all the other systems and do everything it can do to bring our area the least amount of precipitation. It will be a wind machine and we are in for several days of wind. Let’s go through this next storm system.

SATURDAY: It will be sunny and windy with an elevated fire danger due to the dry air, dry ground and wind gusts to 40 mph. Highs will be 65°-70°. The wind gusts will come down tonight, but it will still be breezy with a 10-25 mph wind from the south and southeast.

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SUNDAY: The wind will continue with gusts to 40 mph. It will be cloudy with a few showers possible, especially after 4-5 PM. Highs will be 55°-60°.

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MONDAY: Scattered showers Sunday night will end by 7 AM and then we will go into the dry slot of the storm system. This means we will see sun and wind with gusts from the west-southwest at 45 mph. This storm system will create a blizzard in the northern plains with rain racing across the corn belt.  We may see some blowing dust in the western Plains, and if this occurs, it will be in our sky.

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TUESDAY: The storm system will track southeast and weaken, basically going around KC. So, Tuesday will be windy once again with clouds and temperatures in the 30s and 40s. Light snow will occur in Nebraska and Iowa with a few flakes in northern Missouri.

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TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: This should come as no surprise as the system continues to track southeast, the snow areas will move into Missouri and eastern Kansas and basically fall apart. So, KC may see a few snowflakes/snow showers, but we do not expect any accumulation. It will stay windy and become cold with lows in the 20s and highs around 40°.

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SNOWFALL FORECAST: The snow form this next storm will occur in the northern Plains where 6″ to 10″ of wind driven snow is likely.

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RAINFALL FORECAST: Well, if we can’t get snow, let get some rain.  Right now, it looks like we will not see much rain either with amounts a trace to .10″, perhaps .25″. This is not enough water to wash in fertilizer, kind of ridiculous.

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The next chance of a storm system is March 10-15. Based on the 47 day cycle, this correlates to the storm system from October 21-22. This was our last truly wet storm system, where we received 2″ to 3″ of rain. We shall see how this system acts in March.

Have a great weekend.

Jeff Penner

2018-03-05T06:34:38+00:00March 3rd, 2018|General|14 Comments

14 Comments

  1. Stl78(winon,mn) March 3, 2018 at 9:13 am - Reply

    Thx jeff! Up here they are callin for rain transitioning to snow 1 to 2 on backside but all overnight data shows 6+😡. Im ready for spring!!

    • Richard March 3, 2018 at 9:37 am - Reply

      Stl

      Enjoy it ! You are in snow country 😄

  2. Kurt March 3, 2018 at 9:17 am - Reply

    I know negative nelly that I am everyone will be bashing this comment. Is cycle 4 going to be more like cycle 2 and in the drier side? We had near average Jan and Feb here in terms of precip but are only at about 40 percent of normal since November 1st.

    If the storm the 10th-15th doesn’t produce are there concerns of a growing drought? Would we need to hope cycle 5 produces results and when would that be? Mid to late April? It just appears we’ve not been a good spot since October and anyone forecasting different results as positive as they try to be have been wrong.

    I want realistic dialogue on what is most likely going to happen? Will we have to go through a second dry summer up here?

    • Richard March 3, 2018 at 9:35 am - Reply

      Kurt
      No bashing from me
      Gary has had concerns about drought all along. I think he is right !

      • Joe March 3, 2018 at 9:18 pm - Reply

        he has mentioned it several times…just have to read between the lines.

    • Roger March 3, 2018 at 10:35 am - Reply

      Kurt, this pattern is WAY drier than last year. Yesterday, the Wichita NWS put out a statement that we will probably see “catastrophic” fire weather on Monday. I can already tell that area ponds and lakes are 2-3 feet lower than a couple months ago.

      • Troy Newman March 3, 2018 at 1:04 pm - Reply

        I think fire will be a real danger. October was one of the windiest months I can remember and I suppose it will be repeated in March. This LRC has had mostly NW winds and those will be dry and really make things dangerous. Thankfully the snow cover we had this winter let most people up here get the brush and tree piles burned already.

        • Roger March 3, 2018 at 5:34 pm - Reply

          I’m already anticipating major wildfires sparking due to lightning from the isolated, fast moving storms, if they develop.

  3. Richard March 3, 2018 at 9:34 am - Reply

    Thanks Jeff
    Wish we could get some of that snow !
    Speaking of Tahoe Gary has had a blast ! He did a facebook live 3 hrs ago.
    Looked at some stats on that lake. Did not know it was so big !
    22 miles long and it is DEEP.
    If all the water was dumped out it would cover the state of California 14 inches deep. Wow

  4. REAL HUMEDUDE March 3, 2018 at 9:44 am - Reply

    Kurt, cycle 4 has been a worry for me since cycle #2 was such a miserable bust. However, cycle 5 will come in just in time for April and May and it will produce for most of the region I believe. Now, there is always areas that get missed by convective systems so nothing is guaranteed. It can be on the drier side in March with little AG impacts, actually almost better to have a warm dry early Spring to get everything planted and then have rains kick in.

  5. Kurt March 3, 2018 at 10:17 am - Reply

    Hope you’re right, it’s really quite damp up here even with a few days of winds. Just hope western Kansas and the panhandles get something

  6. f00dl3 March 3, 2018 at 10:36 am - Reply

    Funny how our LRC is the same but different, but the surface temperatures are doing the same thing they did last winter to the T. Almost like the lower levels are stuck in last year but the upper levels are this year’s LRC. Will that mean that our summer flash flooding sets up identical to last year as the LRC has less influence than surface features in summer?

  7. Troy Newman March 3, 2018 at 1:00 pm - Reply

    Doesn’t look like the Thunderstorms are going to pan out this far NW. We did get to see what looked like a strong thunderstorm on Hastings, NE radar just to my West a few miles but it was a massive flock of snow geese coming off of Lovewell Reservoir.

  8. Richard March 3, 2018 at 6:54 pm - Reply

    Already grass fires today on the KS side.
    And more wind tomorrow

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