Ice Storm Warning Today

/Ice Storm Warning Today

Ice Storm Warning Today

Good Morning Bloggers,

An ICE STORM WARNING has been placed over the KC metro area this morning:

Screen Shot 2018-02-20 at 5.34.51 AM

6:25 AM Radar:

Screen Shot 2018-02-20 at 6.22.14 AM

This is a rather significant area of freezing rain and it is heading directly towards KC early this morning. A line of thunderstorms is on the leading edge, an unusual line of heavy thunderstorms considering it is below freezing this morning. Let’s look at some of the details and your KC weather time-line is posted below.

Here are the graphics I showed last night on the 10 PM news:

DSCN4907

DSCN4910

A cold surge is arriving this morning, and in combination with an upper level disturbance tracking overhead we are expecting a significant band of freezing rain with a chance of freezing rain thunderstorms to spread up the I-35 corridor. These accumulations I showed last night are possible. I am expecting between 0.10″ and 0.50″ in most areas near KC.  Power outages don’t usually begin until around 1/2″ accumulation happens on the power lines and we will likely fall just short of this potential danger. There is also a chance of sleet before it is over. If it does sleet, then the roads will get covered. If it does not sleet, then most of the roads that are treated will mostly be wet. It will be quite tricky today. Last night we targeted this I-35 corridor to be the center of this system, and it appears to be lining right over this region, which is directly over Kansas City.

Kansas City Weather Time Line:

  • Now through Noon:  Freezing rain spreads over the area and becomes heavy near I-35.  Ice accumulations are likely.  Freezing rain thunderstorms are possible. In these thunderstorms sleet may fall which would coat roads.  Temperatures dropping a couple more degrees into the mid to upper 20s.
  • Noon to 3 PM: The heavy band of freezing rain may change to sleet before ending. The band will slowly shift to the east.  Temperatures in the 20s. Total accumulations of 0.10″ to 0.50″.
  • 3 PM to 6 AM Wednesday:  Temperatures drop a few more degrees, so there will be more freezing of any standing water
  • Wednesday night-Thursday:  Freezing rain and sleet again are likely. Some snowflakes may mix in
  • Friday: There is a chance of rain or freezing rain
  • Saturday -Saturday night: A major winter storm is possible with snow near Kansas City, or just north of the region. We are monitoring this storm closely. The timing seems to be more like Saturday night. The overnight data has it going north of KC, but it is something to monitor.

As we showed in yesterdays blog, this part of the pattern is directly related to the first cycle of this years pattern in October. In this first cycle it was rather wet with 5″ of rain in KC. It is an incredible comparison to that first cycle. And, there is some major blocking developing aloft over Greenland. We will discuss this in tomorrows blog and on 41 Action News tonight.

Here is one look at the developing blocking upper high:

3

That big upper high, the blue H, will have some rather significant influences on the pattern. And, KC may end up with some chances for snow in these next 15 days, not to mention these ice chances.  That is a 575 decameter upper high, which is rather strong. But, it hasn’t formed yet.  This map is valid on March 1st. Let’s see how this evolves.

Please be cautious today and provide a lot of extra time to get around if you have to get out. Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the cycling weather pattern.  Go to Weather2020 Blog and join in the conversation as we all learn together and share in this weather experience.

Gary

2018-02-21T07:38:33+00:00February 20th, 2018|General|179 Comments

179 Comments

  1. Hockeynut69 February 20, 2018 at 6:43 am - Reply

    Power outages starting to pop up. Glad the schools are canceling. Be safe everyone!

    • Richard February 20, 2018 at 9:08 am - Reply

      Where ??

    • Anonymous February 20, 2018 at 11:23 am - Reply

      negative

  2. Mr. Pete February 20, 2018 at 6:46 am - Reply

    SMSD was already closed today….

  3. Nicole February 20, 2018 at 6:48 am - Reply

    Snow for Saturday? Or Saturday night?

    • Gary February 20, 2018 at 6:51 am - Reply

      Most likely Saturday night. The latest data has it going just north of KC, but let’s say how it trends.

      Gary

  4. Nicole February 20, 2018 at 6:54 am - Reply

    Thank you Gary!

  5. Kurt February 20, 2018 at 6:54 am - Reply

    Thunder at 102nd and N Oak Trafficway in the Northland

  6. Weatherby Tom February 20, 2018 at 6:56 am - Reply

    A freezing rain thunderstorm over my house, complete with thunder, lightning, heavy rain. Incredible, dont think I’ve ever experienced this! Glad I telework today!

  7. Kurt February 20, 2018 at 6:58 am - Reply

    Brief heavy downpour and small hail

  8. Hockeynut69 February 20, 2018 at 7:02 am - Reply

    Thunder, heavy downpour, and it’s freezing on surface, now back to the car chase in Los Angeles.

  9. Bill in Lawrence February 20, 2018 at 7:05 am - Reply

    Gary:

    Happy Tuesday morning to you sir!!

    Currently at 30 degrees with heavy rain and thunder….wow!!!!! Power already has flickered once so we will see how that plays out.
    County roads are a bit dicey out here but I would imagine in Lawrence they are overall okay….like in 2002 it is not quite cold enough to make roads a huge issue but for sure will be slick spots.

    Stay safe everyone…

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

    • Richard February 20, 2018 at 9:13 am - Reply

      Sorry Bill, there is nothing happy about this Tuesday morning
      My power is flickering. My car is entombed in ice already. If power goes out I am stuck.

      Will we get above freezing in the next 3 days ?? Will this mess thaw by Friday ?

  10. Heat MIser February 20, 2018 at 7:05 am - Reply

    So much for the getting sleet at the end theory…just got a bunch of sleet in Lawrence…covered the roads

    • Gary February 20, 2018 at 7:07 am - Reply

      The thunderstorms likely will have sleet!

      • Heat MIser February 20, 2018 at 7:12 am - Reply

        It’s pretty heavy, loud sleet…that’s for sure

  11. MikeL February 20, 2018 at 7:13 am - Reply

    Sleet also over here in SW Topeka covering the roads. 26 degrees at my house. Not hearing any thunder.

    • Baseball Mike February 20, 2018 at 9:08 am - Reply

      Hi Mike

      Say here in Berryton between 6-7:45 or so we had several rounds of lightening and thunder – the dynamics were something with this storm. Almost recorded .40 precip with this storm. Will be interesting to see how these other two storms play out this week-

      Michael/Topeka/Berryton

  12. Bill in Lawrence February 20, 2018 at 7:34 am - Reply

    Gary:

    Good morning again to you and to all the bloggers….I am lucking out here to be honest…..have quite a bit of sleet mixing in with the rain which is helping cut down the ice accumulation with these thunderstorms….heaviest rain since October!!!!

    We do have some gusty winds though and the power has been flickering….of course our power out here flickers with a summer breeze LOL so this is to be expected….

    Stay safe everyone…the sleet here is cutting down on the ice accumulation but as we get colder today it will maker the roads worse….

    Another huge flash of lightening….we have a functioning storm!!!!! 🙂

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

  13. Dave in LS February 20, 2018 at 7:43 am - Reply

    Very dynamic storm. Very vigorous vort for sure.

  14. Snowflake February 20, 2018 at 7:43 am - Reply

    What a sleeper of a storm — and what a tough winter to be a meteorologist in this region!

    But — alas — we need the moisture, so at least that’s finally arriving.

  15. Fred February 20, 2018 at 7:51 am - Reply

    Unbelievable. Lightning and Thunder here in southern Blue Springs. Great job, Gary on the forecast!

  16. MattinLeavenworth February 20, 2018 at 7:52 am - Reply

    I am hearing thunder and seeing lightning while listening to ice pellets hit my window all at the same time. Frozen precip has Changed the landscape here. I need a good laugh and have to go back on previous blogs to re read the weather masters who swore it was too warm for this to happen.

  17. f00dl3a February 20, 2018 at 7:54 am - Reply

    The good news is sleet will reduce somewhat the risk of power outages.

    • Terry February 20, 2018 at 8:00 am - Reply

      I’m glad it’s Sleeting to. Not that it’s any better

  18. Georgie February 20, 2018 at 7:56 am - Reply

    A lot of sleet in Lansing. Leave it to KC to get more sleet from a storm this year than snow.

  19. Terry February 20, 2018 at 7:59 am - Reply

    It’s sleeting in Wy county Kansas

  20. Emily B February 20, 2018 at 8:00 am - Reply

    Very heavy sleet on drive in from Berryton to SE Topeka. Roads were wet when I left the house at 6:50, sleet started at 7 and hasn’t stopped. Might be a bit of freezing rain mixed in, but seems like it’s mostly sleet. Saw quite a bit of lightening, which was neat – only one clap of thunder though.

  21. f00dl3a February 20, 2018 at 8:01 am - Reply

    Kansas City —- this is the most significant winter weather event in 4 years.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE February 20, 2018 at 9:15 am - Reply

      We have had floods way worse than this, its just a slush storm. In my area in Shawnee its not freezing on trees or the streets, maybe it is up north? Since when did slush become the most significant weather event in 4 years, lol. Its heck of a sleet storm that’s for sure but I disagree this is the most impactful storm we have had.

      • Heat MIser February 20, 2018 at 10:22 am - Reply

        In Lawrence, definitely the most impactful winter weather in years. I had trouble getting places due to the amount of sleet/slush in the road…extremely slick and treacherous. Most folks stayed off the roads this morning here.

  22. Weatherby Tom February 20, 2018 at 8:05 am - Reply

    Heavy sleet with thunder and lightning, fascinating!

  23. Anonymous February 20, 2018 at 8:12 am - Reply

    Heavy sleet, some thunder just west of Liberty, thank goodness for remote access for work.

  24. Urbanity February 20, 2018 at 8:12 am - Reply

    We had two storms pop up west of Salina around 10 pm, when my daughter said she saw lightning and heard thunder I thought she was mistaken, but sure enough. Just about 4 minutes of action with each storm before they quickly moved out, heavy sleet and freezing rain for about one minute in each storm so we got a little sheet of ice on things. I could not have been more surprised because the sun was out before dark and there was only a chance of drizzle after midnight.

    • Troy Newman February 20, 2018 at 8:31 am - Reply

      We had that up here too 90 miles to your North. I can’t recall seeing lightning when it was only 15 degrees outside.

  25. JoeK February 20, 2018 at 8:13 am - Reply

    Gary,

    This weather is certainly exciting and somewhat expected. I have feared that according to the LRC, we would see stronger systems and the real potential for icing events. The LRC has proven to be an amazingly accurate road map! The next few weeks will be very interesting to watch. Are we seeing the October version begin to repeat? I think so and have been expecting it. The “same but different” 😀

  26. Hockeynut69 February 20, 2018 at 8:16 am - Reply

    Heavy sleet and some thunder just west of Liberty, thankful for remote access for work. I am good unless power goes out!

  27. Snowflake February 20, 2018 at 8:21 am - Reply

    The convection (lightning and thunder) is the best thing that could happen to the region when it comes to this ice storm.

    #1: Convection will increase precipitation totals – and we need every drop we can get.

    #2: Convection makes for incredibly *inefficient* ice accumulation/accretion — it falls too fast to glaze and accumulate on trees, powerlines, etc… Much of it drops all the way to the ground before eventually freezing. This means that even if a convective system puts out 1/2″ of rain in an hour, only a fraction of that will adhere to branches, lines, etc…

    A win-win.

    • sedsinkc February 20, 2018 at 8:23 am - Reply

      On the losing side, convection cools the air aloft, allowing sleet to fall. This helps the roads freeze up faster, making driving more difficult.

  28. sedsinkc February 20, 2018 at 8:23 am - Reply

    Snow lovers simply can not get a break this winter. We finally get a winter storm of some significance, and it’s all ice.

  29. JoeK February 20, 2018 at 8:24 am - Reply

    Something I find very interesting, Gary asked the question a while back about how the blog has impacted us, yesterday and today are good examples. Many of you (us) knew to be cautious with this system and were skeptical of models as well as early forecasts. I believe this is directly related to the education we have received and continue to receive, on this blog. The LRC has performed very well this year and gave us some clues as to what to expect if analyzed close enough. I believe we are seeing a cycle that closely mirrors the October version. This is the “same but different” Gary has referenced many times. Some got caught up in the pattern we have been experiencing with misses and minor events and this is because seasonal variances are not being considered. The dynamics of these systems are changing , but the pattern remains the same. This week as well as the following few weeks, have the potential for some exciting weather. Everybody stay safe today.

  30. benchwarmer February 20, 2018 at 8:31 am - Reply

    interesting night of weather in Rock Port, freezing rain, sleet, the lightning and thunder and hail then heavy rain and then it all repeated. Now sleeting again with some snow. on the ground the ice is at least half an inch but not much on the trees or lines.

  31. Tim February 20, 2018 at 8:36 am - Reply

    should I even say it.. does it appear a dry slot is entering in the direction of KC?

    • Hockeynut69 February 20, 2018 at 8:47 am - Reply

      I was noticing that the intensity seems to be diminishing. And there does appear to be at least a small dry slot opening up.

  32. Adam February 20, 2018 at 8:46 am - Reply

    Haven’t had any sleet in Lee’s Summit. Been all freezing rain to this point.

  33. Jason February 20, 2018 at 8:49 am - Reply

    One giant of a sleet/slush mess in Lawrence so far.

  34. Anonymous by choice February 20, 2018 at 8:49 am - Reply

    That’s not a dry slot. Just a small break in the precip. It fills right back in behind it. Look at the Wichita radar.

  35. Tim February 20, 2018 at 8:52 am - Reply

    I’m not quite sure the area that is filling in behind the break is going to reach the metro– it’ll be close– but may be more of a concern to the south and east of 435 loop– again just my unprofessional opinion LOL

  36. Bobbie February 20, 2018 at 8:52 am - Reply

    F00dl nailed this storm.

  37. Mr. Pete February 20, 2018 at 8:57 am - Reply

    32 / 33 degrees here in Prairie Village. Roads are fine.

  38. f00dl3a February 20, 2018 at 8:58 am - Reply

    I wouldn’t say I nailed it. We got a lot of sleet that cut down on freezing rain totals.

  39. Adam February 20, 2018 at 9:02 am - Reply

    We are going to narrowly miss a significant event here. Temps are hovering around freezing, which is going to midigate any major issues.

    Much needed moisture. More action later this week..

  40. Kathy February 20, 2018 at 9:04 am - Reply

    I am looking forward to your “Greenland blocking” discussion tomorrow. I wondered if this was impacting the weather outside my window right now. It got very dark and thundered here in downtown KC, and we finally got the exciting weather I have been waiting for. If it weren’t for this blocking, would we be having different weather today?

  41. Mr. Pete February 20, 2018 at 9:07 am - Reply

    Big donut hole in Radar over the City for now. I’m guessing this is pretty much over by noon.

  42. f00dl3a February 20, 2018 at 9:13 am - Reply

    http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=INX-N0Q-1-48

    What if this grazes us? It looks like it could be I-35 & SW in the city as long as the front doesn’t push too hard.

  43. f00dl3a February 20, 2018 at 9:14 am - Reply

    &SE not SW 🙂

  44. Dave in LS February 20, 2018 at 9:20 am - Reply

    I think it will be close. I’m in Lee’s summit and that front took its sweet time getting here this morning. Defenitly something to watch.

  45. Richard February 20, 2018 at 9:20 am - Reply

    Will we get above freezing in the next 3 days ??
    My power has been flickering. My car entombed in ice already.
    If power goes out I am stuck.

    • Heat MIser February 20, 2018 at 9:45 am - Reply

      lol…for a second I read that as your cat is entombed in ice.

      • Kurt February 20, 2018 at 9:50 am - Reply

        Only in the movie Christmas with the Kranks (smiley face)

      • Richard February 20, 2018 at 10:03 am - Reply

        Lol thx for the laugh Heat
        If I had a cat he would not be outside.
        Everyone get your pets inside.

  46. Craig February 20, 2018 at 9:25 am - Reply

    The 12Z NAM…which back on Saturday nailed this mess today…is showing a repeat is performance on Thursday.
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/conussfc.php?run=2018022012&time=INSTANT&var=PTYPE&hour=048

    • Jsquibble February 20, 2018 at 9:30 am - Reply

      I would wait until tmwr before anyone starts to worry. This season it normally takes 24 hours before the event before we can get a good handle on how things play out but the NAM has been performing lately

      • Richard February 20, 2018 at 9:36 am - Reply

        It is in the timeline Gary put out above in blog post,
        More tomorrow-Thursday

  47. Anonymous by choice February 20, 2018 at 9:31 am - Reply

    Precip not making a lot of eastward movement. Heavy radar returns go all the way SW to Dallas and beyond.

    https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php

  48. Adam February 20, 2018 at 9:33 am - Reply

    It really comes down to Temps though. If you are at 30 and above, major impacts are unlikely. The NAM has us hovering around freezing again on Thursday.

  49. f00dl3a February 20, 2018 at 9:36 am - Reply

    http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=FWS-N0Q-1-48

    Watch this squall near Dallas. If this squall line starts drifting north-northeastward, that means that the focal point for the rain axis will have stalled out. If this happens this entire mass of moisture may stall on top of us instead of in central Missouri as the models show.

    • weatherjaded February 20, 2018 at 9:44 am - Reply

      Appears to me it has a enough eastward drift to miss most of the Metro.

  50. Lrcfan1 February 20, 2018 at 9:38 am - Reply

    Seems like it’s stalling and moving north along the i35 corridor!

    • Heat MIser February 20, 2018 at 9:44 am - Reply

      Not seeing a stall in that loop…I see it consistently moving east.

  51. Rod February 20, 2018 at 9:43 am - Reply

    Gary can you explain the freezing rain threat for Central Missouri tonight in the Wednesday morning and then again Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Keep hearing that the heaviest ice accumulation is supposed to be along & south of US 54 down to the I 44 Corridor. Depending on which model you look at still shows some icing in the Columbia & Jeff City areas. What is your take on how bad it could get over part of Central Missouri? Also You nailed the forecast last night well before the National Weather Service even issued the ice storm warning, great jog calling this one!! Have a great day!!
    Rodney, Ashland, MO

  52. Adam February 20, 2018 at 9:48 am - Reply

    Nah, there is a clear eastward component. This will be over for the most part by early afternoon.

  53. Katharidinaus February 20, 2018 at 9:50 am - Reply

    Snowing in overland Park if you can believe it

  54. Craig February 20, 2018 at 9:51 am - Reply

    Starting to see some actual SNOW here in W Lenexa.

  55. f00dl3a February 20, 2018 at 9:51 am - Reply

    It looks like the back end is getting intruded on by dry air close to us as well. It should be over by noon, yes.

  56. f00dl3a February 20, 2018 at 9:55 am - Reply

    Then again look at the southern tip of those storms in Texas on high res GOES 16…
    That front is cutting in from central KS though.

    http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso2-02-48-1-100

    • Adam February 20, 2018 at 10:02 am - Reply

      Ya, interesting stuff man. At least we are getting some general excitement around here. Next several days look very interesting, IMO. Definite October pattern return here.

      • Richard February 20, 2018 at 10:07 am - Reply

        This kind of excitement we don’t need

  57. Michael February 20, 2018 at 10:04 am - Reply

    Could it be almost done in northern Leavenworth county?

  58. Blake February 20, 2018 at 10:05 am - Reply

    Light snow now falling just south of KCI at 10:00 A.M.

  59. Richard February 20, 2018 at 10:08 am - Reply

    Dallas heavy t-storms flight delays.
    Will it come here ? 19-20 degrees tonight.

  60. Anonymous by choice February 20, 2018 at 10:25 am - Reply

    Radar returns look like I-35 is the literal dividing line. Points NW it’s pretty much over. Overall trend is very slow east movement.

  61. Rod February 20, 2018 at 10:30 am - Reply

    Gary just saw Sedalia is at 33 degrees & under a winter weather advisory, should we be concerned this could be expanded east to include Columbia & Jeff City areas??

  62. KS Jones February 20, 2018 at 10:33 am - Reply

    Well, not yet –maybe Thursday

    https://weather2020.com/2017/11/15/winter-forecast-preliminary-thoughts/
    November 15, 2017
    Winter Forecast Preliminary Thoughts

    Richard November 15, 2017 at 11:43 am – Reply
    The lower end of Gary’s could be right only because I think we will have ice events that will cut down on snow totals.
    We are way overdue for more snow, but we are also way overdue for ice storm.
    Will be interesting to see if Gary throws ice into his official winter forecast.

    KS Jones November 15, 2017 at 1:12 pm – Reply
    I’m going out on a limb with my prediction too, and i’m guessing that limb will come crashing down in a massive ice storm that cripples the power grid for weeks on end.
    Generator sales will soar.

    • Richard February 20, 2018 at 11:28 am - Reply

      Creepy that you can go back to find these
      I wouldn’t know where to start,
      Do you keep a diary or something, of your blog comments ?

      • KS Jones February 20, 2018 at 11:57 am - Reply

        Richard,
        I remembered what I’d said back then, so I googled weather2020, out on a limb, and “massive ice storm”. It popped up in the search result and it was the only hit.

    • Heat MIser February 20, 2018 at 11:46 am - Reply

      You aren’t here to discuss the weather, you are here to troll. OUT!

  63. Tim February 20, 2018 at 10:44 am - Reply

    Look like the precip down to the east of Wichita is back building a little bit?? Think this could reach the east side of the metro later?

  64. Weatherby Tom February 20, 2018 at 10:57 am - Reply

    Just when I thought this event was over, sleeting again

  65. Snowflake February 20, 2018 at 11:18 am - Reply

    Ouch:

    f00dl3 February 19, 2018 at 2:46 pm
    “NAM normal has a more realistic 0.2 – 0.5″ for the metro.”

    Weatherman February 19, 2018 at 3:01 pm – Reply
    “Uh No. it doesn’t.

    18z nam has .1-.2 for the metro with a .4 bullseye in Topeka. This solution is realistic. Again, a non-event for the metro.

    https://imgur.com/a/Iw7WQ

    I’ll take my check later”

    • Fred February 20, 2018 at 11:24 am - Reply

      HA!!!

    • Heat MIser February 20, 2018 at 11:44 am - Reply

      It sure was an event for Lawrence…the sleet made a hell of a mess.

  66. Freezemiser February 20, 2018 at 11:22 am - Reply

    Anyone know where we can access that ground temperature map KSHB is displaying on TV?

  67. weatherjaded February 20, 2018 at 11:25 am - Reply

    Can we not do this please. This is a fun place to get info and voice opinions. Someone is always going to right and some is always going to be wrong. We seriously do not need the play-by-play. Some people speak like they are never wrong, and always in hyperbole. I am sure everyone knows someone in their everyday life that is like that. Everyone is different. Let’s just enjoy following actual weather.

  68. Lrcfan1 February 20, 2018 at 11:35 am - Reply

    Doesn’t look like a big deal on snow for saturday.

  69. Snow Miser February 20, 2018 at 11:35 am - Reply

    It’s now snowing in downtown KC. Bring it on!

  70. KS Jones February 20, 2018 at 12:04 pm - Reply

    Our propane supplier came and topped off our tank this morning, so I compared our usage this winter to last winter and it has been roughly the same, but the cost per gallon is 40% higher this winter. Our usage would have been a lot higher if we hadn’t been keeping the fireplace blazing during this winter’s cold snaps.

  71. Craig February 20, 2018 at 12:09 pm - Reply

    Given the way today unfolded, we should all take a keen interest in what the NAM shows when it begins tomorrow to model the storm due on Saturday.

  72. Nick February 20, 2018 at 12:14 pm - Reply

    had three possibly four precip types in St. Joe this morning, freezing rain, sleet, possibly hail( could have been heavier sleet) during a thunderstorm, and a fine snow near the end of the event. and of course lightning and thunder, wow, finally some excitement although its a shame its all ice, for the most part, but at least we are not on the outside looking in 🙂 this system will boost my winter grade for me this year combined with the several small snows. it is now a C-( on my scale) lol. 😀

  73. Georgie February 20, 2018 at 12:15 pm - Reply

    Anyone have any input of numbers on potential winter weather for tomorrow night and Thursday morning? Jeff and the weather channel are showing more ice potential.

    • Adam February 20, 2018 at 12:21 pm - Reply

      Should be similar to today. It will be warm enough to not cause any major issues. Roads will just be wet.

      • Georgie February 20, 2018 at 12:26 pm - Reply

        Jeff Penner showed my location getting down to 10 degrees tonight and around 27 28 degrees when the precip starts falling tomorrow night

      • Richard February 20, 2018 at 4:20 pm - Reply

        Adam
        Wrong. Gary on air now. More sleet, frz rain tomorrow night/Thurs a.m.

  74. f00dl3a February 20, 2018 at 12:22 pm - Reply

    NAM is kind of spotty in the nature of it again which may mean a scenario much like today with thundersleet and freezing rain showers. Some spots 0.1″, some spots up to 1/3rd” seems realistic the way I see it. GFS looks overdone at this point but can’t rule it out either.

  75. Rockdoc February 20, 2018 at 12:38 pm - Reply

    It just finished sleeting here in south PV and has changed over to light freezing rain. We had an earlier round of sleet this morning accompanying thunder.

    Looking at the MyRadar weather app with wind arrows show the front extends from just SE of Joplin, through Springfield, SE of Jeff City, and up towards Peoria.

    The ice/sleet line is slowly moving east, although there is a huge swath moving NE towards KC along I35 and eastwards. Looks like we will still be under the gun through 1:30 or so.

  76. Troy Newman February 20, 2018 at 12:44 pm - Reply

    Read an interesting comment on the NAO which is forecast by several models to be negative during March. Only 2 of the last 10 years have had a negative NAO in March (2010 and 2013). Both were colder than normal with 2013 being the coldest and snowiest in more than a decade. From 1950-65 we had 15 out of 16 March negative NAO’s and that period had some huge snows and very cold weather in March (although not every year). I wonder what causes patterns over several years to develop like that or the multi-year ridge over the West Coast? The sun, the oceans??

    • NoBeachHere February 20, 2018 at 4:11 pm - Reply

      Troy,
      Those teleconnectors waffle around a bit. Yes they can go negative, then deep negative, then back. I don’t remember seeing any data where they went deep negative or stayed negative the whole month. What I have seen though, is the AO and the NAO stay pretty close to neutral. Sometimes the same, sometimes not.
      It would truly be a huge find to identify what drives those , or any, teleconnector.

  77. Mr. Pete February 20, 2018 at 12:45 pm - Reply

    Just got the typical dusting of snow….on top the sleet

  78. jeffnks February 20, 2018 at 12:54 pm - Reply

    Hello from Wichita. We had thunderstorms during the night with pea to Marble size hail and freezing rain. I never seen that before. It started mixing with sleet which saved our butts down here or it would of been worse. I had .22 inches of freezing rain at my place not counting the sleet and hail which almost covered the ground at one point.

  79. REAL HUMEDUDE February 20, 2018 at 12:56 pm - Reply

    Im at 2.25″ at the farm and still raining pretty good clip. I am very happy with this production, hoping my pit is full by the weekend wothbthe next few disturbances coming through. If this cycles back through in April/May we are in for a big flood

    • Urbanity February 20, 2018 at 1:28 pm - Reply

      Wow Hume, that sounds great, you might be one of the lucky one’s this year.

  80. Kstater February 20, 2018 at 1:06 pm - Reply

    The other side of the cul de sac I live on in Lawrence is on a hill. In the past hour the trash truck got stuck at the bottom of that hill followed by the plow that came to try and get it out. They are still there. I’ve never seen anything like this! Drive safe.

  81. Urbanity February 20, 2018 at 1:12 pm - Reply

    All that beautiful moisture streaming off in the distance. Amarillo to Abilene could only dream of such a thing.

    • Troy Newman February 20, 2018 at 1:16 pm - Reply

      I think the next cycle will give us a chance at some decent moisture farther NW. We don’t get rain in February as a rule anyway.

      • Urbanity February 20, 2018 at 1:27 pm - Reply

        IDK, you know me, I feel confident in the drought pattern this year. We had about 10 minutes of precip last night, I may be wrong but to my recollection that’s the 2nd precip event we’ve had since Oct 7th, neither over .15″.

        • Troy Newman February 20, 2018 at 1:40 pm - Reply

          Your chances at drought might be higher than here. We tend to get Nebraska’s weather up here, watching a Wichita New Station is a waste for weather. We have been on the edge with pretty good snows from here North and nothing from here South.

  82. Kurt February 20, 2018 at 1:29 pm - Reply

    Hope that you guys can get in on some of the rain and we get something heavier next time, but we got 2/3 of an inch which was very much needed here. I didn’t realize it was so bad until reading the article in the St. Joseph News-Press. Atchison, Buchanan, Davies, DeKalb and Caldwell counties are the localize driest in the state of Missouri, the worst dryness since 2012 of course. One part of Northwest Missouri received less than 8 inches of precipitation since the spring of 2017. Davies and DeKalb counties are even experiencing wells drying and lack of hay supplies. Hope we can all look forward to adequate an timely rains that are more wide spread over the dry areas stretching from the Texas Pandhandle up through the dry areas of Kansas into Northwest Missouri in the coming weeks.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE February 20, 2018 at 2:32 pm - Reply

      That’s sad to hear. I have hay coming out of my ears, I doubt we feed another 3 weeks with the rain we got and my sptrage is still half full. Probably 150 bales or more. Once March hits and we get any warmth whatsoever the grass will wake up and cows wont touch hay if there is any grass to eat. It ends up getting old and losing nutrient value, if there was an easy way to transport it I would gladly help them out

  83. Craig February 20, 2018 at 1:31 pm - Reply

    Wow! If you check the national radar, you’ll find an uninterrupted stream of precipitation from Brownsville TX to Traverse City MI.
    Incredible!

    • REAL HUMEDUDE February 20, 2018 at 2:34 pm - Reply

      Like an atmospheric River streaming off the gulf, just like happens in Cali

  84. f00dl3a February 20, 2018 at 1:43 pm - Reply

    You know this was the warmer of the two cold side October storms. Sunday we’re due for the colder one, and wetter. Thursday’s system shouldn’t be terribly impacting.

  85. f00dl3a February 20, 2018 at 1:44 pm - Reply

    And then a week from Sunday we should have another good system.

  86. Kurt February 20, 2018 at 1:48 pm - Reply

    Thanks f00dl3a, keep sending us hopeful news!!! Ok, silly question, what does f00dl3a mean?

  87. f00dl3a February 20, 2018 at 2:08 pm - Reply

    It’s a name I came up with back in the late 90s when I was into computer games like Unreal Tournament and Quake III Arena 😀 High school days.

    • Spaceotter February 20, 2018 at 2:24 pm - Reply

      My name is from the same era for the same reason. Lol

  88. Brandon Aubrey February 20, 2018 at 2:21 pm - Reply

    I live in Sedalia. Been raining moderately for an hour. Nothing freezing yet but we are perilously close. Never got near 40 today, but we’ve held just above freezing for a while. Hopefully we stay that way

  89. Craig February 20, 2018 at 2:56 pm - Reply

    18Z NAM still looking pretty icy overnight Wednesday into early Thursday.
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/conussfc.php?run=2018022018&time=INSTANT&var=PTYPE&hour=039

  90. Weatherfreaker February 20, 2018 at 3:06 pm - Reply

    NWS is saying KC Metro could get some more freezing rain and up to a half inch of snow tonight by 9 on top of the ice we already have. How come I’m not hearing anyone talk about this anywhere else? Am I missing something? Could this really happen? That snow on top of this ice on the trees could be a bad combination IMO.

  91. f00dl3a February 20, 2018 at 4:09 pm - Reply

    Well, considering they didn’t even have a winter weather advisory mentioned until almost 10 PM last night for this event…. I guess they are at least only 3-5 hours behind this time. lol.

  92. Weatherfreaker February 20, 2018 at 4:12 pm - Reply

    Thanks Grambo624. I was starting to think I was losing my mind because there is clearly a WWA for Jackson County MO til 9pm with that description showing up on the NWS website. Hmmm…???

  93. f00dl3a February 20, 2018 at 4:13 pm - Reply

    GFS is a bit loony I think but it has the freezing rain creeping closer to us Friday morning as well before it transitions to rain. It has us getting to near 70 on Sunday in the warm sector – I am going to respectfully disagree with that because I think it has the low track about 75-100 miles too far north. And with that being said this event that it shows as mostly Rain on Friday – I wouldn’t be shocked if the track of the storms shifted a bit and we had a colder rain or a risk of more freezing rain Friday too.

  94. f00dl3a February 20, 2018 at 4:13 pm - Reply

    * Saturday not Sunday

  95. f00dl3a February 20, 2018 at 4:14 pm - Reply

    NAM has us maxing out at 35 on Friday and only 3 degrees and we’re talking about a ice event Friday too. And NAM hit today pretty good.

  96. Weatherfreaker February 20, 2018 at 4:15 pm - Reply

    URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
    135 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

    Miami-Linn KS-Johnson KS-Clay-Ray-Jackson-Cass-
    Including the cities of Paola, Osawatomie, Louisburg, Pleasanton,
    La Cygne, Mound City, Overland Park, Stanley, Olathe, Shawnee,
    Lenexa, Gladstone, Liberty, Excelsior Springs, Richmond, Lawson,
    Kansas City, Independence, Belton, Raymore, Harrisonville,
    and Pleasant Hill
    135 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

    …WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS
    EVENING…
    …ICE STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED…

    * WHAT…Mixed precipitation. Additional wet snow accumulations
    of up to one half inch and ice accumulations of a light glaze
    are expected.

    * WHERE…Portions of east central Kansas and west central
    Missouri.

    * WHEN…Until 9 PM CST this evening.

    * ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Plan on slippery road conditions,
    including during the evening commute. Be prepared for reduced
    visibilities at times.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or
    freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for
    slippery roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while
    driving.

    &&

  97. Richard February 20, 2018 at 4:30 pm - Reply

    Gary

    What say you about the NWS messge right above me that Weatherfreaker just posted ?
    More precip tonight ?

    • Phillip February 20, 2018 at 5:21 pm - Reply

      No. There is not going to be any precip tonight. Do you ever even watch Gary’s forecasts? Seriously dude

      • Richard February 20, 2018 at 6:05 pm - Reply

        Dude
        I already said that above dude. Get off my case.
        If you read my comments you know that I watch Gary on air, watch him on facebook, listen to him on Sports 810 radio.
        I wanted to know what he thought about the NWS message that WEATHERFREAKER posted.
        Flag him, not me. Dude

      • Richard February 20, 2018 at 6:12 pm - Reply

        Dude
        Open your eyes, scroll up to 4:25 where I said Gary said dry tonight,
        Now go crawl back under your bridge.

        • Phillip February 20, 2018 at 6:16 pm - Reply

          You’re a douche and post some of the dumbest questions on this blog. You put the whole “no question is a dumb question” phrase to the test. Gary, a down arrow and block button would be lovely

          • Ryan February 20, 2018 at 6:26 pm - Reply

            C’mon guys. Take it easy. We’re lucky to have W2020 and this vitriol probably makes Gary think twice about keeping the comment section open and certainly makes comment moderation take even longer. Be nice, be civil.

            • Phillip February 20, 2018 at 6:29 pm - Reply

              Hard to be civil with this clown though. He wants to call everyone a troll because they point out the obvious to him. Just take a darn minute and READ. And if you can’t do that, Gary is on air multiple times a day.

              • Richard February 20, 2018 at 6:46 pm

                Phillip
                Considering you were the one who trolled my question to Gary, its on you.
                I agree a down arrow and block button would be nice.
                But since we don’t have those here, I will scroll past you,
                You need to do the same.

                Ryan

                You are correct. It needs to stop

  98. Lrcfan1 February 20, 2018 at 4:54 pm - Reply

    Gary has 40s on Friday and 50s on Saturday so thankfully we will be dealing with plain rain by then.

  99. f00dl3a February 20, 2018 at 5:59 pm - Reply

    KCI Airport 4:58 PM
    Elevation / Temperature (F) / Dewpoint (F) / Wind Direction(Deg) / Wind Speed (MPH)

    +51.2K -84 -119 5 91
    +43.7K -66 -101 7 124
    +38K -69 -90 21 151
    +33.4K -59 -67 59 129
    +29.5K -41 -50 58 120
    +26K -26 -34 64 117
    +23K -12 -18 74 107
    +20.2K -0 -6 75 115
    +17.6K 5 -9 51 101
    +15.4K 10 -16 29 76
    +13.2K 18 -9 29 63
    +11.2K 25 5 42 61
    +9.3K 29 19 66 52
    +7.5K 33 21 61 31
    +5.8K 38 14 37 21
    +4.2K 35 16 45 22
    +2.6K 20 12 71 24
    +1.1K 17 12 80 26
    SFC 23.0 18.0 81 13.8

    A testimony to the shallow Arctic air. It’s 23 at the surface but still 38 5,800 ft up.

  100. f00dl3a February 20, 2018 at 6:00 pm - Reply

    Actually column 4 is humidity not wind direction degrees sorry.

  101. Mr. Pete February 20, 2018 at 6:11 pm - Reply

    Anyone seeing this amazing red cloud sunset?? Look west.

    • Weatherman February 20, 2018 at 6:13 pm - Reply

      Yes. It’s pretty seeing the pink and purplish hue in the sky reflect and bounce off the ice.

  102. f00dl3a February 20, 2018 at 6:23 pm - Reply

    Near Old Town Lenexa, final measurement of 0.4″ of ice on trash bins, driveway – 0.1 – 0.2″ on elevated surfaces.

    • JoeK February 20, 2018 at 8:59 pm - Reply

      Foodl3

      Watch March 6th through 12th for a more potent system to come through. Not sure on precip. types yet but might be timed with a cold front. It is another time frame I have been watching

      • Gary February 20, 2018 at 9:51 pm - Reply

        Yes, and with that block forming, the timing would be good. There should be two systems while the block is in place. This is something I have been looking for all season. The first thing that must happen is that block. It has not formed yet. In the mean time, we are actually having exciting things to talk about.

        Gary

  103. Richard February 20, 2018 at 8:30 pm - Reply

    Looking at radar, this was/is a huge system.
    Still going/training from TX to Michigan.
    Looks like Columbia MO and Joplin are in the thick of the ice now.

  104. Lrcfan1 February 20, 2018 at 8:38 pm - Reply

    00z nam it still looks icy to me, doesn’t it?

    • Gary February 20, 2018 at 8:44 pm - Reply

      Yes it is. It isn’t as wet as this storm, but it is certainly colder to start. I am analyzing and we will go in-depth in tomorrow’s blog and on tv at 10:30 tonight. These long days and weeks are getting to me a bit. This coming Sunday will be my fourth straight Sunday. Throw in an ice storm and only 3 hours of sleep, and ouch.

      Gary

      • Lrcfan1 February 20, 2018 at 8:48 pm - Reply

        Thanks gary for your hard work I’m sure it takes it’s till but at least we have some exciting weather to track! How was your workout today?

      • Richard February 20, 2018 at 9:10 pm - Reply

        Thanks Gary.
        You must be exhausted.
        Time for a vacation

  105. Lrcfan1 February 20, 2018 at 8:49 pm - Reply

    Toll not till

  106. Adam February 20, 2018 at 9:01 pm - Reply

    0z NAM showing .20 to .25 of ice overnight tomorrow into Thursday morning. Not crazy significant, but may cause more travel issues than today’s event. Why?? Well this will be occurring at night, and temps will most likely be in the upper 20’s instead of low 30’s.

    As far as surfaces, that makes a huge difference on impacts.

    • Richard February 20, 2018 at 9:09 pm - Reply

      Won’t take much to bring down limbs and lines, considering we already have an accumulation that will not be melting.
      Ice on top of ice.

      • Gary February 20, 2018 at 9:50 pm - Reply

        It is quite fascinating. It will be very close to being snow as it begins tomorrow night. It’s a tough call, and we may not know the precipitation type until it begins. This GFS run would produce our first 3″ snowstorm if it was all snow, but we know better don’t we. So, sleet may be the initial precipitation type. Sleet or snow, so this would reduce any downed limbs and lines as you suggest.

        Gary

        • Phillip February 20, 2018 at 10:06 pm - Reply

          So are you saying it won’t be freezing rain this time around?

          • Gary February 20, 2018 at 10:11 pm - Reply

            I am not sure yet. Yesterday, 12 hours before this storm today, we figured out that it would be an ice storm. So, here we are 24 hours away. I need 12 more hours. The conditions seem so close to snow. If it starts early, I would expect it to be snow. The later it starts tomorrow night, the more likely it will be sleet or freezing rain.

  107. Bill in Lawrence February 20, 2018 at 10:26 pm - Reply

    Gary:

    Happy Tuesday evening to you sir!!

    A final guesstimate of what I picked up is about 1 inch of sleet and maybe .10-.15 of freezing rain….guessing liquid was around .40-.50….it was quite the fascinating morning here!!! This wave produced and as was mentioned above I would respectfully argue that it was indeed the biggest impacting winter event in the past 3 years. That really accentuates the lack of winter events these past 3 years because historically speaking it was a very average and typical winter event for this area. Also, it makes 2 out of the 4 waves in the past 10 days actually produced some winter weather…not too bad considering our streak the past 3 years!!!! I would have loved to have 2 waves in 10 days to track last winter….we were lucky to have one every 4 weeks!!!!

    I just do not have a feel for the next two systems at all….in the last cycle I picked up 3 inches of snow from the one Thursday and it looks to be pretty close to that if guidence is correct. The one this weekend I can’t place in the cycle so I would need to do some research. One thing is that Spring is for sure showing itself here as in cycle 2 we had another strong arctic front which should be due in around Sunday/Monday (it closed Lawrence Public Schools actually but not my school ) but now it will just be a decent cold front by the looks of it….winter isn’t going quietly this year but there is no doubt you can see the spring influences beginning to show up. I think after this weekend we have one more wave before March 5th that is worth watching (the January 21st system of cyle 2) and then it will be interesitng to see if the blocking does indeed set up for the beginning of cyle 4….if the blocking is there with the cold phase of cycle 4 there could be a surprise. Of course, all of this predicated on the fact if I am looking at the LRC correctly which is a big if!!!! 🙂 LOL

    As of February 20th I have close to 9 inches of frozen precip. In the form of sleet/snow/freezing rain….have had several nights in the single digits…4 nights below 0…..lakes that froze enough to ice skate including Clinton Resivoir….close to 1.75 of qpf since Decemebr 18th…..and 2 snow days…..for me, the winter version of this LRC not only made the tournament, but is now in the round of 32!!!! Last winter didn’t even win a game in its own conference tournament…..

    Will be interesting to see if I can squeeze out another 5 inches of frozen precip and get to the 13-15 inches…..a successful Thursday would really help in that regard but Lawrence again I think will be on the NW side of things so we shall see. However, I think winter puts up a much better fight in March than the past 3 and that there are some players that could for sure pull a surprise or 2….percentages of 5 plus inches of frozen precip between now and April 1st I will say 40%

    Have a great evening everyone….I’m going to very much enjoy the run int he morning with the cold crisp air and the sleet under foot!!

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawerence

  108. Richard February 20, 2018 at 10:26 pm - Reply

    A friend in Portland Oregon says they have not had a snowstorm all winter, but tonight they are under a WSW, snowing at 1-2 inches per hour.
    He said “It ‘s almost March, what the hell.” Not too happy.
    I told him I would trade our ice for his snow ! He said, nah, that’s ok, 😊

  109. Bill in Lawrence February 20, 2018 at 10:32 pm - Reply

    Ooops…quick addendum…

    Sorry…I siad 3 inches of snow for Thursday’s system…I realize snow will most likely not be the main type of precipitation so that is very misleading to say the least. What I mean is that if I can maximize Thursday (and we did in cycle 2) that could put me close to 10-11 inches of frozen precip with a mix of snow sleet etc. Not sure if we will maximize here or not though considering the way the precip lined up today….

    Have a great evenign everyone

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

    • JoeK February 20, 2018 at 11:06 pm - Reply

      Bill,

      I am expecting a number of these systems to over perform. I know I keep going back to it, but today was a good example of when Gulf moisture is in play and in my opinion, October is a good indicator of what to expect in this cycle. Either way, the weather has been and will continue, to be exciting to track. As stated above, I believe the systems to watch will be in early march and more specifically, between the 6th and 12th ( give or take). As for this ice, it has been a concern of mine since January and I have a feeling there is more to come.

  110. Mr. Pete February 21, 2018 at 6:36 am - Reply

    Why are all the schools closed today?

  111. Katharidinaus February 21, 2018 at 7:11 am - Reply

    Roads are horrible in many areas Pete, especially in Missouri. I live in Independence, and many back roads are absolutely abysmal

  112. f00dl3 February 21, 2018 at 7:38 am - Reply

    It’s already 28 about 3,800 feet up.

  113. f00dl3 February 21, 2018 at 8:13 am - Reply

    Funny thing with ice is that 0.2″ of ice when it’s 28 can cause more issues than 6″ of snow on roads, but if it’s 31F you can get an inch of ice and roads are just wet.

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