Good morning bloggers,
This lonely snowman took an entire yard of snow to make, but it is the biggest snow man I have seen in KC in at least two or three years:
It has been over four years now without even one storm producing 3″ of snow in a calendar day. A record that is now longer by over a year than any other time in KC history. Will it snow this weekend? i am not 100% certain we will even see snowflakes, but I am close to 100% confident in at least flurries.
We have similar challenges with our forecast for snow this weekend and it is only two days away. There is NOT a “real” storm once again. What do I mean by “real”? It is difficult to explain, but if you recall, and if you were reading the blogs last week, I showed what was wrong many times with the last chance of snow. I clearly showed how that one very weak disturbance needed to be a little stronger. If it were slightly stronger, then we would have had a much better chance of wide spread snow. If it were slightly weaker, then we would likely have no snow. I know many of you realize that we had this discussion, but think about it. It never did get slightly stronger, and it was also not a “real” storm, where there was a surface cyclone anywhere being generated. This storm is similar, in that it is not quite forming into a storm, and most of the snow will be falling into a high pressure area. More on this in a second. Let’s look at today’s pattern.
A warm front, the red line, should pass through KC today. This will likely lead to a jump in temperatures to near 50 degrees this afternoon. Snow will develop north of the warm front across the Dakotas. Now, this is a real surface cyclone, with a warm front, a cold front, and a trough of low pressure all winding into a pretty strong surface low.
The map above shows the forecast map valid by noon Friday. Another strong blast of cold will be moving across the plains into the Great Lakes. Snow is forecast to develop north of KC Friday. By Saturday morning, there is a chance that some of this snow will track into northern Missouri, but notice the hole near KC. Here we go again. That hole makes the entire model suspect.
The map above is the aggressive GFS model that has several inches of snow still being modeled for Saturday into Saturday night. The Euro model has a lot less. The European Model does have around a dusting to 1″ by Sunday morning near KC. Here is the midnight Saturday night European Model:
Again, the GFS is much more aggressive, but this is not a “real” storm yet. It is very disorganized aloft and it is something I will explain more tomorrow.
Have a great day. We will look into what direction this is headed, how the models trend. But, we have another challenging weather forecast. The models range from NO SNOW, not even a flurry by the Canadian model to over 5″ on the GFS near KC. Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversations: Weather2020 Blog