Good morning bloggers,
This lonely snowman took an entire yard of snow to make, but it is the biggest snow man I have seen in KC in at least two or three years:
It has been over four years now without even one storm producing 3″ of snow in a calendar day. A record that is now longer by over a year than any other time in KC history. Will it snow this weekend? i am not 100% certain we will even see snowflakes, but I am close to 100% confident in at least flurries.
We have similar challenges with our forecast for snow this weekend and it is only two days away. There is NOT a “real” storm once again. What do I mean by “real”? It is difficult to explain, but if you recall, and if you were reading the blogs last week, I showed what was wrong many times with the last chance of snow. I clearly showed how that one very weak disturbance needed to be a little stronger. If it were slightly stronger, then we would have had a much better chance of wide spread snow. If it were slightly weaker, then we would likely have no snow. I know many of you realize that we had this discussion, but think about it. It never did get slightly stronger, and it was also not a “real” storm, where there was a surface cyclone anywhere being generated. This storm is similar, in that it is not quite forming into a storm, and most of the snow will be falling into a high pressure area. More on this in a second. Let’s look at today’s pattern.
A warm front, the red line, should pass through KC today. This will likely lead to a jump in temperatures to near 50 degrees this afternoon. Snow will develop north of the warm front across the Dakotas. Now, this is a real surface cyclone, with a warm front, a cold front, and a trough of low pressure all winding into a pretty strong surface low.
The map above shows the forecast map valid by noon Friday. Another strong blast of cold will be moving across the plains into the Great Lakes. Snow is forecast to develop north of KC Friday. By Saturday morning, there is a chance that some of this snow will track into northern Missouri, but notice the hole near KC. Here we go again. That hole makes the entire model suspect.
The map above is the aggressive GFS model that has several inches of snow still being modeled for Saturday into Saturday night. The Euro model has a lot less. The European Model does have around a dusting to 1″ by Sunday morning near KC. Here is the midnight Saturday night European Model:
Again, the GFS is much more aggressive, but this is not a “real” storm yet. It is very disorganized aloft and it is something I will explain more tomorrow.
Have a great day. We will look into what direction this is headed, how the models trend. But, we have another challenging weather forecast. The models range from NO SNOW, not even a flurry by the Canadian model to over 5″ on the GFS near KC. Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversations: Weather2020 Blog
Gary
Just got in to clinton mo from mn. The drive through northern ia was terrible. Snow packed roads and white out conditions. Fortunately it cleared by the time we got to des moine! Snowfall rates were impressive! Hopefully the trip back on sun is less stressful!
Nothin like a little white knuckle drivin’ to keep a guy honest. Good luck wettin a line down there this weekend.
The EURO is quite lame again. Nebraska gets it good yet again.
So what time will the snow start here? I understand that Chicago is getting some decent snow…
looks like 1-3 is the general consensus, and wide spread for the area. LoL..Gary is still in super cya mode with a dusting to 2 inches.
It’s always better to go up. If I can go up on our totals on Friday, it will be a good thing. But, going 1-3″ of snow has not happened in a very long time. So, I will wait another few model runs. We have learned.
Gary
New GFS data out & accumulating snow inched a little further south, clearly 2-4” across my area near Columbia. Mixed precipitation vs all snow line just south of me near Hwy 50 in Jeff City area. Would like to see another one county southern shift. I hate freezing rain. Bring on the snow!!
http://www.grib2.com/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_72HR.gif
Don’t fall for it fellow bloggers!!!!!!
Per 4+1 channel the nam has gone up in totals for the storm to almost 3 inches for the metro
LoL…I wouldn’t quote that channel…they predicted the highest totals for the last non-storm of any news station in KC and were the last to real it in.
Exactly, and I heard about it big time. It was not our forecast. NOW, The trend may be up, but we have been through this too many times. The Euro has not gone over 1″ or so. I would like to see if that model goes up or down later tonight.
I am on the air in minutes. I am going with a dusting to 2″, but will talk possibilities.
Gary
Man the GFS won’t quit, it has widespread 3 to 6 across the viewing area. I thought itr would start trending down tonight.
It looks like the gfs might have slightly more precip on tonight’s run. It shows a 2nd wave coming in on the back side
Lets see what it says tomorrow.
Best “model” over the past few years is the radar day of. What is this…1970?
That is spot on!
Gary, thinking about doing a FB live tomorrow discussing the trends? Hopefully the models will somewhat come into an agreement ONE DAY before the snow. By God, they have been terrible.
So tired of these piddly little snows is like just one big snowstorm them bring on storm season or well storm season be boring like this winter?
First time poster.
Interesting development. The NAM now seems to think this will be a Saturday Night/Sunday day event:
http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2018020900&fh=48&r=us_c&dpdt=
http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2018020900&fh=72&r=us_c&dpdt=
Very small sliver right across the area ranging from 1.5-3.5
Though the Standard 10:1 is way smaller amounts, and probably is more realistic.
The storm for the end of next week looks like it could really dig & if this model is close by Friday Amarillo, TX could end their dry steak with an significant ice storm & maybe some snow. Just maybe since this is showing the storm south of the area it will start trending north in time and just maybe we could catch lightning in a bottle and get a nice snowfall but not giving up on this weekend storm just yet, just maybe it could squeeze out a 3”+ snow for KC & if I’m lucky drop 1-2” over… Read more »
I’m on that particular storms bandwagon now. Coming up through the SW, pulling up gulf moisture, that’s how we get Big snows around here. Sure it might poof, but I like it’s possi militias right now. Past run wasn’t good as the 12Z, but mayne it will trend back north like you say. It was VERY heavy convective type snowfall, looked blizzardesque to my untrained eye
I’m watching that one, that’s winter Storm Terry right there!
I am analyzing this fascinating set up. And, I am watching the NAM model try its hardest to not snow in KC, but then it just has to, so just before it ends it finally does produce a nice band of snow from 10 PM to 6 AM Saturday night-Sunday. It is one notch from being a big snowstorm, and one notch from being a dusting at most. Have we discussed this delicate situation many times in this pattern?
Gary
Blah Blah Blah….no snow Mr. Gary!!! Bring on Spring. Winter is over my Friend.
The white dream is over
okay, so the odds are in our favor then….it has to break the snowstorm way some time and we are due.
Lol Nam stands for Not a model
don’t knock it Terry…the Nam showing snow for 8 hrs
I no it’s going to snow.
That solution wouldn’t really make sense, per the LRC though, would it?
NWS still calling for a wintry mix Saturday for central, south, Missouri.
https://twitter.com/NWSKansasCity/status/961764515745583104
NWS used the word complex in description of this system. So I’ll wait until this time tomorrow to look again. Complex means, we reserve the right to 180 on this. In my field complex we employment is code for there will likely be bugs in the finished product.
Dang auto correct. Complex development… Not we employment.
Lol !
Auto correct can be as confusing, or useless as the models !
I haven’t seen any other mention of mixed precipitation with this storm for several days. How much of a concern should that be close to the metro?
Gary, are you going to post a snowfall map for this storm? My feelings are that there is going to be a small area that receives snow.. snow will develop and move mostly straight east and likely track over the same area. My prediction is dusting-1 south of I70, 1-2 for the metro area, 2-4 from North Kc to St. Joe and 4+ north of St. Joe. We need to see if the gfs trends in the direction of the nam which I believe will happen… we need to watch for a decrease in the area of snow, northward trend,… Read more »
Want a snowfall map, her you go…
https://www.weather.gov/eax/weatherstory
Aren’t areas south of I-70 still the metro area? Until you get out of the metro area that is.
Happy Thursday afternoon everybody!! The GFS is doing its best Tom Petty impersonation…standing its ground and it won’back down. It has for sure been consistent over the past 6 runs..not that its necessarily right but it sure has been consistent. I am probably going to get harpooned for this next comment and that’s but I’ll throw it out there anyway. Comparing the 12Z NAM and 18Z NAM the only real difference between the two is the amount of QPF. If you look at the humidity at the 750 and 850 levels and the wind direction they are pretty much identical… Read more »
18Z GFS still claiming KC will see 6″+ through noon Monday.
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conussfc.php?run=2018020818&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=096
I’m really hoping there is a slight southward trend in the snow on the evening and overnight models. As it’s looking Columbia Missouri is kind of on the southern edge of accumulating snow with maybe 1-2”. According to the weather channel and weather underground looking like 2 to 4 inches but that might be a little bit overdone, just depends on how much freezing rain sleet mixes in.
Welp.. http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2018020818&fh=78&r=us_c&dpdt=
Yep
NAM is not looking good, what else is new?
GFS still being dumb and holding onto the snow. I Have lost massive amounts of Confidence and respect for the GFS, i used to see it as the very best model available and anymore I just laugh at it. Almost as bad as the Canadian at this point…..
Canadian has been much better than the GFS this year
The European Model was the worst one on Tuesday. All of the models have been horrible. The only way the GFS redeems itself, as if it is a being, is to produce the wide spread 3 to 6″ amounts. And, that would place us all in shock, LOL.
Does anyone know much about the ICON model? They just put it on Tropical Tidbits recently but I’d never heard of it beforehand. I Googled it the other day but didn’t come up with much, except for some stuff in German. :-/
The ICON is getting on board with accumulating snow, I guess I will too, all the 12z models have at least 1in most have 2 or more.
And it shows Chicago getting hammered !
They are under a warning from 6 pm tonight – 9 pm Friday
This whole blog is just more clickbait to get us into a frenzy again..Its time to just face the music that we are absolutely not in the right place for the last few years in regards to accumulating snows.
Gary said it himself at the top – “Will it snow this weekend? i am not 100% certain we will even see snowflakes, but I am close to 100% confident in at least flurries.”
Time to move onto Spring.
So does that mean you are taking the bait?
naw…that’s too easy and a bit lazy. We will have more chances…just be patient. We ve had decent snows before and we will again…nobody knows when.
Powercast is an in-house model, it likely uses a blend of various model inputs to come to the most likely outcome.
Boy oh boy, the storm for NEXT weekend is a freaking powerhouse. Enormous scope on that one, haven’t seen the pressure but reminds me of a bombo type storm with its size and strength. I know it’s likely fantasy, but so was this weekend’s storm last week everyone said it would vanish, well, it’s still here!
Thanks Hume
I asked because on Grys fb live today in studio with Gerard, they showed what 4 models were saying for Saturday ( not maps, bar graphs). The highest one was labeled Our Model, and it showed 7.7 inches.
I wonderd if that would be the same as powercast map that they show on air.
Real Humedude, Can you show us a map or provide a link to this powerhouse storm that showing up for the next weekend just for us snow lovers who like to look at Fantasy storms until one day they become reality. Thanks
Question .
Anybody know if kshb in-house model is the same thing as their Powercast ?
Is powercast a model ?
Updated model trends:
GFS: Widespread 3-5″
CMC: Widespread 2-4″
EURO: 1-3″ Metro, 3-5″ Far N MO
NAM (12z): 2-3″
Are those 18z data figures? Could it be possible the models are starting to come together? Around that 2-3″ appears to be the mean.
They were all the 12z runs. 18z comes out later this afternoon for the GFS and NAM. I do agree that models are consistently showing something. Regardless of specific totals, they are all agreeing on snow at the least.
In reguards to the idea that the models can never predict a winter storm for this area more than 24 hours out, while it is very true that after day 3 models are very iffy and an exact forecast from 6 days out will usually never verify, some of it is because of the pattern, in this LRC we are in the “wrong spot”( at least for the cold season) therefore, when a model predicts a big storm 6 or 8 days out, then by default almost you know that it is not reading the pattern right, its not that… Read more »
Terry,
What would you like his forecast to be? What would you like him to base that on? There is data that says we will get more than a dusting to two inches. There is also data and this years LRC that says a dusting to two inches is the most we will get. Especially when you consider there isn’t a real storm associated with this snow chance.
You don’t have to have a real storm to get a good Snow And if the dynamics are right you can .
I don’t think you always have to be right to have a forecast Who cares if you lose 1 or 1 We all can’t be perfect.
What ??
Totally agree Terry!
It’s going north again Terry. Finally finished shoveling the sidewalk from the 3 inches of snow Gary predicted for KC.
It’s days like today that can turn a snow lover into a frustrated golfer! Enjoy the beautiful day, everyone! (Insert your choice of music to encompass the building suspense of the next 👽wave🌨! Oh, and I appreciate everyone who takes time to share a model. Especially the most exaggerated ones! When I first started following the blog, NOTHING made the experience more gratifying that seeing a snowfall map putting KC near those 20 somethin numbers! It has been a learning curb for keeping cool, calm, and collected. Haha so don’t lose your enthusiasm folks! Winters still coming!
100% agree!
Until it happens, it’s not going to happen in my mind. Dusting at best, hoping for more.
in my mind anyone shouldn’t say is it going to snow or not snow ? Because that can be miss Leading its better to say it going to snow and if it don’t if there is a chance an shows it.
Terry
It is
agree
Gary When or what time will you Decide on May happen ? You had a 60% chance last night and not sure what it is now % ? a Dustin to 2″ or more if trends ?
I mean a Dusting to 2″ or more if trends ?
Terry
Last night Gary said he has not been able to tell us that he sees a big storm coming.
And with this years LRC he doubts that he will.
So, even if he ups the chance of snow to 100 %, it will not be a big snow. Just more of the same.
Nobody really knows either way Richard.
Uh, yeah I was quoting what Gary said last night Heat
he said hes sticking with that FOR NOW.
Gary: Do you see a chance east of KC near Columbia getting in on the snow. The weather channel keeps advertising in their videos and snowfall maps of a heavier swath of snow across Central Missouri in the 2-4” to 3-5” range. I know back when the winter forecast came out it was indicated that areas east and north east of Kansas City had a slightly better chance of seeing more snow this winter. So far that has not planned out. There has been more snow at KCI airport than at the Columbia Regional Airport. Last night the local station… Read more »
Rod,
Good questions, and thank you for the information. I didn’t know Columbia, MO was that low. With this set up I wouldn’t say the chance increases to the east. It seems about the same or less. But, let’s see how this trends.
Gary
Columbia Airport snow totals so far:
Nov: 0.00
Dec: 1.10”
Jan: 1.50”
Feb: 0.00” so far
Total snow so far this season: 2.6”
Talk about a snow drought, ugh!!
Both.
Not sure what your reading Mr. Pete !! They are saying wide spread 2-3 on today’s discussion for Saturday/Sunday
That’s a mere discussion, not a forecast.
The NWS has made it clear they see the most likely scenario being a widespread 2-3″ event at least.
Regardless of what you call it, it’s more of a CALL than any other mets are making, at this stage.
NWS Kansas City Forecast Discussion: It actually gives a fairly detailed forecast. .Discussion… Issued at 231 PM CST THU FEB 8 2018 Ongoing warm advection with steady low-level southwesterly flow and clearing cloud cover has pushed temps into the upper 40s and lower 50s across the area as of Thursday afternoon. This has helped to melt much of the remaining snowpack south of Highway 36 as seen on visible satellite imagery. The brief warming will soon come to an end, however, as a cold front sweeps through the area late tonight over northwest Missouri. This feature will bring a sharp… Read more »
lets be honest…all of these forecasts keep changing and will keep changing until this weekend. Nobody really knows, but with everyone forecasting something different, someone will probably end up being right. LoL
NWS basically says zero accumulations for over the weekend…KC forecast.
Mr Pete Where are you seeing that I don’t see nothing about that?
Just look up the forecast on the NWS website for KC. Just says some snow but no mention of any accumulation.
When I go to the NWS, it indeed lists accumulations.
Saturday PM: “Snow likely, mainly before midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 10. North wind 7 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.”
That literally just updated
The Euro is now showing 2-4″ of snow North of I-70 (generally).
Someone explain this …. we cannot rely on a model 24 hours before it supposed to hit , but Chicago or anywhere else can rely on the same exact output of the model and be correct. 🤷🏼♂️🤦♂️🤬💩💩💩💩💩
It just seems that way because you aren’t there. Most of the time models seem to output precip that is too general and widespread when in reality there is more variability. Lets say that one part of Chicago gets a foot a snow but other areas maybe get 4-6.” If you are the one with 5″ it seem disappointing. However if you live here you only hear that there was a foot of snow in Chicago when in fact many places didn’t experience that.
Yep, well said troy. All about perception.
BSMike,
Even Chicago has the potential for getting a busted forecast. Let’s see what happens. When everything lines up, like it seems it is doing in Chicago right now, it is definitely easier to forecast and get a verification. Maybe we get one of these before this “tough” season ends. There are multiple chances showing up.
I get your point, of course. It has been many years of us being in the wrong spot during the winter. With this many chances, the frustration worsens. Let’s take a deep breath. Maybe something will still come together.
Gary
I remember one time this year with the Chicago area (maybe this storm) there was a busted forecast. They even had a Winter Storm Warning and the snow stayed north of the city. This time looks a little different. I think this will be Chicago’s biggest snow of the season.
9″ in 10 days…ain’t happenin Magee.
And to further add to the Irony look at what the ICON model does with that low off the west coast – it retrogrades it back further into the Pacific. Hmmmmmmm when did we see models doing this and think it was bonkers before….. hmmmmm?
Think that was the storm that gave Atlanta a foot of snow too if I recall.
Well I guess their errors are consistent huh?
use this link
One can dream!
Maybe next year we could believe this map
why, it doesn’t mean anything
yeah ???
These amounts may in fact occur. I noticed how The weather Channel forecasts for select cities seems to change multiple times per day. Over the past two days it continues to be consistent and show 1 to 3 inches of snow in Central Missouri near Columbia, & then today it shows 1 to 3 inches on Saturday and 1 to 3 inches more Saturday night for 2 to 6 inch storm total. Even their video they put out today in their snowfall map shows a heavier swath of snow east of Kansas City over Central Missouri in the 3 to… Read more »
Look at these crazy figures
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=ncus&pkg=asnow24&runtime=2018020712&fh=24
You know what is so god darn Ironic is the way that the model shows that low diving off the west coast and then coming up through the 4 corners region. Like haven’t we seen the models do this before – like remember that time Gary was saying how much we need to watch what that storm does in the gulf of Alaska over the next few days – was that the first week of December if I recall models played this same fantasy scenario out? The models are falling for the false LRC signals, the same way, every cycle.… Read more »
Bastardi had a graphic that showed the Euro forecast from 10 days ago and what actually occurred. It had very warm across most of the country but in reality its the same thing again. Warm in the SW cold elsewhere. Snow from BC through MT then a weakening system for us. Do these models have any persistence programed in to them? Even if you don’t know about the LRC it seems that you would notice how the same things keep happening in the same spots over the course of a year.
You would think so, Troy, but you know the LRC too well. It isn’t as obvious to others out there. This is why the LRC has gone undiscovered. The peer review paper will begin opening other scientific minds to what is right in front of their faces.
Gary
I wonder if some of the models are fed data under the assumption of global warming and since global warming may or may not be real, the data is skewed to allow more moisture in the pattern (warmer air holds more moisture) thus causing the snow bias for our area as it assumes the gulf is pumping more moisture here and the cold air is not as strong and thus doesn’t count the fact that our constant northwest flow is shearing storms and shunting that moisture off.
I like the title of todays blog, you should just copy and paste it for every “possible” snow event from here on out
So just curious which model has been the most consistent this winter?
Gary
Check out Gary’s facebook live from an hour ago.
Fwd it to when he takes Sunny into the kshb studio where Gerard is.
The models are bonkers ! Even the kshb model shows 7.7 inches.
Gerard says he might show the models, BUT that is NOT their forecast
Our next fantasy storm is only 10 days out!!
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018020812&fh=198
Yawn. I might just create my own dream snow storm for ten days out and post it…same accuracy level.
Her richard, gfs at 240 hrs/10 days total accumulation
http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sn10_acc&rh=2018020812&fh=240&r=us_mw&dpdt=
Thx
9 inches in 10 days for JoCo ?
Not sure why we are posting stuff we know isn’t real. For kicks maybe?