Good morning bloggers,
This lonely snowman took an entire yard of snow to make, but it is the biggest snow man I have seen in KC in at least two or three years:
It has been over four years now without even one storm producing 3″ of snow in a calendar day. A record that is now longer by over a year than any other time in KC history. Will it snow this weekend? i am not 100% certain we will even see snowflakes, but I am close to 100% confident in at least flurries.
We have similar challenges with our forecast for snow this weekend and it is only two days away. There is NOT a “real” storm once again. What do I mean by “real”? It is difficult to explain, but if you recall, and if you were reading the blogs last week, I showed what was wrong many times with the last chance of snow. I clearly showed how that one very weak disturbance needed to be a little stronger. If it were slightly stronger, then we would have had a much better chance of wide spread snow. If it were slightly weaker, then we would likely have no snow. I know many of you realize that we had this discussion, but think about it. It never did get slightly stronger, and it was also not a “real” storm, where there was a surface cyclone anywhere being generated. This storm is similar, in that it is not quite forming into a storm, and most of the snow will be falling into a high pressure area. More on this in a second. Let’s look at today’s pattern.
A warm front, the red line, should pass through KC today. This will likely lead to a jump in temperatures to near 50 degrees this afternoon. Snow will develop north of the warm front across the Dakotas. Now, this is a real surface cyclone, with a warm front, a cold front, and a trough of low pressure all winding into a pretty strong surface low.
The map above shows the forecast map valid by noon Friday. Another strong blast of cold will be moving across the plains into the Great Lakes. Snow is forecast to develop north of KC Friday. By Saturday morning, there is a chance that some of this snow will track into northern Missouri, but notice the hole near KC. Here we go again. That hole makes the entire model suspect.
The map above is the aggressive GFS model that has several inches of snow still being modeled for Saturday into Saturday night. The Euro model has a lot less. The European Model does have around a dusting to 1″ by Sunday morning near KC. Here is the midnight Saturday night European Model:
Again, the GFS is much more aggressive, but this is not a “real” storm yet. It is very disorganized aloft and it is something I will explain more tomorrow.
Have a great day. We will look into what direction this is headed, how the models trend. But, we have another challenging weather forecast. The models range from NO SNOW, not even a flurry by the Canadian model to over 5″ on the GFS near KC. Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversations: Weather2020 Blog
Gary
What really stinks is that the Canadian looks similar to what’s happened several times this year.
Models have been brutal this season. We’re two days out from the event and almost every model shows something different.
GFS: 5-7″
CANADIAN: Dusting-2″
EURO: 1-2″
NAM: 2-4″
Their reasoning for the differences is all the same though considering each model’s own biases.
Well lookey there. The models are now doing what I said they’d do. The high comes in and cuts through the energy like a hot knife through butter because the Arctic air / northwest flow shears the thing out. Surprise. Same thing every time. L R C.
Looks like you nailed it. The 12z runs today should tell the story, they should get full sampling.
Will we be missed? Based upon the LRC winter version, YES. Spring into mid July we will then get hit and all us snow fans will dream of what could have been. From mid July to mid August it dries out and we finally go over the 100 degree mark which then sets us up for a big winter NEXT YEAR! In fact I’m gonna go ahead and say 100% of at least 4 inches of snow on the ground Christmas 2018!!! I did stay at a Holiday Inn and that’s why this prediction means nothing
My hopes have been too high the last few months for these possible snow events. So I am anticipating zero snow, that way I won’t be disappointed! At this point, I am over winter. Be winter (and snow buckets) or be OVER. In other news, Sporting KC released their new alternate jersey yesterday. It looks fantastic and has me ready for the season!
This forecast sucks for me drivin in tonight. Looks like il have to drive through a snowstorm in ia tonight and possibly another one on sun morning…sigh, maybe i should just call it and stay home.
Hey there is some models that show some freezing drizzle in the Clinton area this weekend, maybe Gary can let us know if this is a real possibility.
I asked yesterday but no response. It looks like the warm nose may indeed work its way into the area but should b on sat which wont affect me. Im more worried about the drive south later tonight through iowa! I need to b on the road back to mn early sun morning so hooefully roads are fine by then.
Stl78
Take care
5-8 inches for Chicago according to the weather channel.
They also said Des Moines has gone 3 years without 3 inches in one storm, but their streak might be broken with this one giving them 5 inches.
So, now the hot spots will be north of us, not south of us ?
Thx Richard! I thought des moine broke that streak with their last storm. Maybe not.
I might have misunderstood. You r probably right
On February 5th, Des Moines recorded 5.4″ of snow, breaking their streak of 769 days without 3″ of snow or more in a single calendar day. This was their record longest such steak.
Thats what i thought numbwrs. They also had a huge pile up on 35…thx!
What did the LRC already show us for this year??
“It’s gonna be cold, it’s gonna be dry, and it’s gonna last you for the rest of your winter”
Spot on !
Define the word dry it’s not always going to be dry lol .
I agree and think that Gary’s forecast and the LRC have done a very good job this year. It has been drier than normal nearly everywhere except Western NE. It has been colder than normal. We may come up short of his snow cast but that to me is the least valuable thing he gives us. The difference between 10 and 20 inches of snow seems large but its only 1/2-1″ of moisture stretched out over nearly 5 months. We have had quite a number of snow events and precip events but all have been very minor in nature. I do think if we are going to get any large amount of snow the best chance is in March at the beginning of the next cycle as that is the only part of the cycle that featured an actual storm.
Gary:
Happy Thursday to you sir!!
Just looking at the models there is a huge difference between the last few runs of the NAM and GFS at the 850 and 700 levels with regards to wind and moisture. The GFS at both levels has us in at least 90% humidity at both levels from Saturday morning through early Sunday morning and keep the SW flow at the 700 level much longer than does the last 3 runs of the NAM. The NAM has consistently in the past three runs kept our QPF fairly small compared to the GFS and while I am just a hobbyist I would guess this is why. The NAM takes the 850 flow to the north by 3Z Saturday where the GFS holds off for another 6 hours and the GFS does not turn the 700 winds north until almost 12Z on Sunday. One would have to respectfully argue that the GFS is for sure the outlier here and should at some point today come in line with the NAM.
I still will stick with 1-2 inches for my neck of the woods as these waves have produced that much overall in the last cycle and I think even based on the NAM there is enough organization to squeeze out that much. Have to leave a 10% chance that we can hit 3 but will lower the chances of 3 plus to only 2%.
Will be very interesting to see this set up in cycles 5 and 6….to my hobbyist eyes, there are some ingredients for this set up to be interesting in the spring and early summer cycles.
Have a great Thursday everyone
Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence
But shouldn’t we be using the LRC for this weekend storm? If this is the Christmas Eve storm that produced 1-2 inches then we should be confident that that should happen again. Shouldn’t we be comparing maps from 47 days ago to confirm what is going to happen?
Gary
What time will the cold front be here tomorrow. Before noon ?
To heck with winter, bring on spring!
I’ll go with an under an inch to a miss. Our best accumulating snow chance will be in March as everything begins to transition.
Severe weather season will get started very soon in the south east and will gradually move into Tennessee Valley across SE Missouri east into Ohio as well as Eastern coastal states. There are about 4 to 6 chances per cycle to bring us chances of severe weather. Other than a March snow, once this residual cold is done in about 10 to 15 days, let’s bring on the 60 to 70’s. The birds songs this morning are awesome!
Define the word dry it’s not always going to be dry lol .
Terry
Dry as in dry snow not wet snow. Very little liquid in the snows that we have had.
Gary said it would be a drier winter.
What model is this CMC?
What The Gem model ?
CMC- Canadian Meteorological Centre, which hosts the CMC weather model. This weather model is on average slightly less accurate than the GFS and ECMWF weather models, and does well in patterns with a lot of blocking or amplification, and tends to do much worse with amplified patterns.
Global Environmental Multiscale Model. The Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM), is an integrated forecasting and data assimilation system developed in the Recherche en Prévision Numérique (RPN), Meteorological Research Branch (MRB), and the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC).
The CMC/GEM are the Canadian models, either way you look at it…
Thxs guys
Let’s move on to spring and warmer weather! Maybe next winter will be more exciting…
NO way….I think there is a pretty good chance of one or two small snows, then mabye a big wet snow in March.
Im done with it up here and we r below avg for snowfall up to this point. Have not seen the grass since beginning of dec. Im sure some of u would like this and i dont mind snow but i am ready to at least get above freezing for a day or two. Workin outside in sub zero temps does begin to take a toll on u. I hope u guys get some snow and moisture, i would just prefer for it not to happen on my drive/trip in. Oh well, cant control the weather, only your outlook! Have a great day!
What’s models saying today , are they out yet?
The NAM has wide spread 1″ totals with a few 2″. The GFS just came out with wide spread 4″…..BE CAREFUL. The GFS keys on a wave ejecting out of the very positively tilted trough, and we have seen this forecast by the models a few times this season. This has not been the way the patterns have set up. So, look at it if you want. I am sure someone will post it. It is incredible how easily it could verify if those waves were “real”, but they likely are not. If they are, then the other models should come in line.
Gary
Yes, just saw that GFS, Gary, and will post that link.
Highly likely you are correct, unfortunately, given the pattern.
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conussfc.php?run=2018020812&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=090
Also important to note that the GFS you posted includes totals from Sundays system
I think it would include Tuedays system, not Sunday.
Thanks Gary I like knowing where the models are likely making a mistake.
Not a real Wave lol ?
Terry
Not real as in fantom or fantasy wave. Models like to dream. 😄
Gary you have me Confused last on the 10pm talked about the Snow donuts hole and that it show the models Filling in the gap and snow will spread in to kc and now you You are questioning that today again ? Then on the blog here you show a powercast the last picture in today blog that shows Temperatures and the shows a snow over KC Time on there 9pm ?
Uhhh what???? Lol
Remember – at this point out the NAM did incredible with the last storm. And the NAM fits the LRC.
In fact the NAM looks like almost a carbon copy of Tuesday’s non-event. Storms have a strong habit of training tracks when this close.
No, the NAM had zero. This time it has 1 to 2 inches. The Canadian Model has 2 to 3″. So, the first three models in all have a minimum of 1 to 2″, so this leaves the Euro model. Will it have zero?
GAry
Gary
What’s the timing for the cold front tomorrow ?
Correct – but 2 days out it did have us getting some snow. But the reality was the snow band was about half the depicted strength.
Model Bias.
No “twists”, just a split on the NAM. Don’t believe it though, not 84 hrs out. You’ll get burned!
We have been cold too much this winter.
Ready for at least some 40’s-50’s !
Il trade ya for a day richard! Weve warmed up to 13…..sigh. 1 to 3 in of snow later this afternoon. Hope to b on the road south before it starts!
But but you are in MN those temps are normal for you 😄 And you are near water ! Thats even colder.
Remember be careful what you ask for. 😄
Just teasin’ you. I just remember you were pumped about moving there. For the kids to have some winter.
Good luck on your trip. Fishing ?
Yes richard a little fishin will b involved. Fwiw, ive lived in northern climates for half my life (northern il) and no matter how use to it you are, it still gets old. Il still take this over 95 + with 100% humidity!!
Yep. Agree !
If I had it to do over I would not have settled here.
But family is here now.
What December event matches this weekend’s event, per Gary’s theory?
I thought he already posted that this past weekend’s events — Sunday and then Tuesday — were paired with the Christmas Eve stretch?
Saturday will be 48 days since Christmas Eve snow
Dec 24 +’48 = Feb 10
https://www.timeanddate.com/date/dateadd.html
So this past Sunday event – February 4 – what December event paralleled that one?
I think the cycles are 45-51 days.
So, any given day/ weather event during each cycle should line up fairly well with the cycle before it.
Or every other cycle mirror each other, as Doug Heady seems to think.
Chicago’s supposed to get hammered tonight/tomorrow, 6-10″, locally over 12″, worse north WS wrng till 2100 tomorrow. Want moisture but not like that. Better there than here.
They need it. They r well behind on snowfall/moisture too. The last snowfall help put a dent in their defecit but they r still behind.
And though it’s a week out again, the latest GFS makes late next Thursday into Friday look pretty interesting…
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112106&fh=210&xpos=0&ypos=0
Interesting for who
Why are you showing us something that doesn’t mean anything. Models that far have a horrible track record.
I know this is going to sound crazy and all, but I’m guessing he’s showing it because he’s participating in a weather blog and he found it interesting. I think at this point everyone is aware of the track record the models have had this winter. Your comment had a very condescending tone to it. I’m just saying.
Matt
Weeeell Matt, maybe it’s time to quit posting stuff that is meaningless…its like post fake news, except it ‘s fake weather. Why post something that means nothing? The models have proven totally useless, Gary’s own words, this year. Yes, a little condescending tone is meant….stop posting stuff that is demonstratably false.
That’t all good and fine with one exception…you are saying that something is demonstrably false when in reality, you have absolutely no idea whether it’s false or not, because the very basis of the discussion is an event that is being predicted 10 days down the road in this case. For you to assume that the information is simply false because it’s been false in the past is incredibly shortsighted. I understand that the model verifying this far out is incredibly unlikely, but, this is a weather blog. It’s probably okay for him to post the depiction of a weather model for conversation purposes. If you don’t like it, then ignore it, but don’t tell someone else what they should or shouldn’t post just because you don’t see the value in it. Have a nice evening.
Heat is good at that. Going around telling everyone not to post models.
It’s his schtick.
When winter is over he won’t be here until next winter. Or the next LRC.
Following the LRC and what happen in December- Have to go with 1-3″. Do like how some of the models are trying to get my hopes up again. Amazing how we are around 48 + hours out and the GFS shows 5-7″.
Kc richard
What am I missing. I only see rain/ice in southeast MO on the one that Craig posted.
Nothing here
That map was only a 6 hour look back. You had to hit the back arrow that is just above the map to see what it was doing earlier. It was showing a significant storm for KC in about 10 days. It isn’t showing it on the most recent run though.
Thx Matt
Just saw Gary did a facebook live 45 min ago.
Her richard, gfs at 240 hrs/10 days total accumulation
http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sn10_acc&rh=2018020812&fh=240&r=us_mw&dpdt=
Thx
9 inches in 10 days for JoCo ?
Not sure why we are posting stuff we know isn’t real. For kicks maybe?
Our next fantasy storm is only 10 days out!!
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018020812&fh=198
Yawn. I might just create my own dream snow storm for ten days out and post it…same accuracy level.
Check out Gary’s facebook live from an hour ago.
Fwd it to when he takes Sunny into the kshb studio where Gerard is.
The models are bonkers ! Even the kshb model shows 7.7 inches.
Gerard says he might show the models, BUT that is NOT their forecast
Gary
So just curious which model has been the most consistent this winter?
I like the title of todays blog, you should just copy and paste it for every “possible” snow event from here on out
You know what is so god darn Ironic is the way that the model shows that low diving off the west coast and then coming up through the 4 corners region. Like haven’t we seen the models do this before – like remember that time Gary was saying how much we need to watch what that storm does in the gulf of Alaska over the next few days – was that the first week of December if I recall models played this same fantasy scenario out?
The models are falling for the false LRC signals, the same way, every cycle. I can’t believe this. The models are very consistent in their errors on picking the LRC up it’s actually quite funny!
Bastardi had a graphic that showed the Euro forecast from 10 days ago and what actually occurred. It had very warm across most of the country but in reality its the same thing again. Warm in the SW cold elsewhere. Snow from BC through MT then a weakening system for us. Do these models have any persistence programed in to them? Even if you don’t know about the LRC it seems that you would notice how the same things keep happening in the same spots over the course of a year.
You would think so, Troy, but you know the LRC too well. It isn’t as obvious to others out there. This is why the LRC has gone undiscovered. The peer review paper will begin opening other scientific minds to what is right in front of their faces.
Gary
I wonder if some of the models are fed data under the assumption of global warming and since global warming may or may not be real, the data is skewed to allow more moisture in the pattern (warmer air holds more moisture) thus causing the snow bias for our area as it assumes the gulf is pumping more moisture here and the cold air is not as strong and thus doesn’t count the fact that our constant northwest flow is shearing storms and shunting that moisture off.
Look at these crazy figures
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=ncus&pkg=asnow24&runtime=2018020712&fh=24
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018020812/gfs_asnow24_ncus_31.png
use this link
One can dream!
Maybe next year we could believe this map
why, it doesn’t mean anything
yeah ???
These amounts may in fact occur. I noticed how The weather Channel forecasts for select cities seems to change multiple times per day. Over the past two days it continues to be consistent and show 1 to 3 inches of snow in Central Missouri near Columbia, & then today it shows 1 to 3 inches on Saturday and 1 to 3 inches more Saturday night for 2 to 6 inch storm total. Even their video they put out today in their snowfall map shows a heavier swath of snow east of Kansas City over Central Missouri in the 3 to 5 inch range. Just maybe the storm will come together time will tell.
And to further add to the Irony look at what the ICON model does with that low off the west coast – it retrogrades it back further into the Pacific. Hmmmmmmm when did we see models doing this and think it was bonkers before….. hmmmmm?
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2018020812/icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_60.png
Think that was the storm that gave Atlanta a foot of snow too if I recall.
Well I guess their errors are consistent huh?
9″ in 10 days…ain’t happenin Magee.
Someone explain this …. we cannot rely on a model 24 hours before it supposed to hit , but Chicago or anywhere else can rely on the same exact output of the model and be correct. 🤷🏼♂️🤦♂️🤬💩💩💩💩💩
It just seems that way because you aren’t there. Most of the time models seem to output precip that is too general and widespread when in reality there is more variability. Lets say that one part of Chicago gets a foot a snow but other areas maybe get 4-6.” If you are the one with 5″ it seem disappointing. However if you live here you only hear that there was a foot of snow in Chicago when in fact many places didn’t experience that.
Yep, well said troy. All about perception.
BSMike,
Even Chicago has the potential for getting a busted forecast. Let’s see what happens. When everything lines up, like it seems it is doing in Chicago right now, it is definitely easier to forecast and get a verification. Maybe we get one of these before this “tough” season ends. There are multiple chances showing up.
I get your point, of course. It has been many years of us being in the wrong spot during the winter. With this many chances, the frustration worsens. Let’s take a deep breath. Maybe something will still come together.
Gary
I remember one time this year with the Chicago area (maybe this storm) there was a busted forecast. They even had a Winter Storm Warning and the snow stayed north of the city. This time looks a little different. I think this will be Chicago’s biggest snow of the season.
The Euro is now showing 2-4″ of snow North of I-70 (generally).
NWS basically says zero accumulations for over the weekend…KC forecast.
Mr Pete Where are you seeing that I don’t see nothing about that?
Just look up the forecast on the NWS website for KC. Just says some snow but no mention of any accumulation.
When I go to the NWS, it indeed lists accumulations.
Saturday PM: “Snow likely, mainly before midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 10. North wind 7 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.”
That literally just updated
lets be honest…all of these forecasts keep changing and will keep changing until this weekend. Nobody really knows, but with everyone forecasting something different, someone will probably end up being right. LoL
Not sure what your reading Mr. Pete !! They are saying wide spread 2-3 on today’s discussion for Saturday/Sunday
That’s a mere discussion, not a forecast.
The NWS has made it clear they see the most likely scenario being a widespread 2-3″ event at least.
Regardless of what you call it, it’s more of a CALL than any other mets are making, at this stage.
NWS Kansas City Forecast Discussion: It actually gives a fairly detailed forecast.
.Discussion…
Issued at 231 PM CST THU FEB 8 2018
Ongoing warm advection with steady low-level southwesterly flow
and clearing cloud cover has pushed temps into the upper 40s and
lower 50s across the area as of Thursday afternoon. This has
helped to melt much of the remaining snowpack south of Highway 36
as seen on visible satellite imagery. The brief warming will soon
come to an end, however, as a cold front sweeps through the area
late tonight over northwest Missouri. This feature will bring a
sharp downward trend in temperatures Friday, and will set the
thermal stage for wintry precipitation beginning Friday into
Saturday.
Southwesterly surface flow will continue over much of the area
tonight, which should keep overnight lows near or above the
freezing mark for areas south of Highway 50. Areas across
northwest Missouri will see lows in the lower 20s, coincident
with the cold front arrival. Afternoon high temps on Friday
should peak relatively early in the late morning to early
afternoon as the cold front makes a steady push to the southeast.
There will still be enough time for areas south of I-70 to rise
into the lower to even upper 40s Friday afternoon, with much
cooler highs to the north behind the front, generally in the 20s.
Northern Missouri will see the initial chance of precipitation as
early as Friday morning as a narrow band of frontogenetical
support clips the area. Light snow is possible for areas north of
Highway 36, along with a wintry mix across extreme northwest
Missouri. Better forcing will remain north of the MO/IA border,
though there is still some potential for enough precip to form
slick roadways across northern Missouri Friday morning.
The more significant weather will arrive beginning Friday evening
from north to south, eventually affecting the entire CWA Friday
night through much of Saturday. The forecast remains complex given
the thermal profile early in the event, and the lack of mid-level
forcing throughout the event. Moisture availability continues to
look reasonable, fed primarily within the mid to upper levels from
the eastern Pacific. The amount of dry air at the surface in the
wake of the cold front could play a role in overall precipitation
totals initially, though eventually the vertical column should
sufficiently saturate for precip to reach the surface. The overall
forcing will rely on elevated frontogenesis as a cold 850 to 700 hPa
layer nudges against the remnants of the late week warm layer.
The mid-level support, however, will remain north of the area
throughout the event. Snow ratios will also be relatively low
early on in the event, eventually reaching near 15:1 by Saturday
afternoon. This will all equate to snowfall totals near 2-3
inches for areas north of I-70, with values between 1-2 inches
between I-70 and Highway 50. This axis could easily change, and
will be closely monitored leading into the event. The other
hazardous scenario is with the potential for accumulating ice
south of Highway 50 beginning late Friday night into Saturday
morning. Given the thermal profile across central Missouri and a
progged residual warm nose from 800 to 700 hPa, freezing
drizzle/rain will develop prior to the transition to snow late
Saturday. Untreated roadways should form a light glaze at the
least, and there is the potential for minor ice accumulations as
well. Regardless of location, travel conditions will quickly
degrade throughout the day on Saturday as wintry precipitation
continues until early Sunday morning.
Much warmer temperatures will return by Monday and look to linger
through much of the work week. Precipitation chances should then
hold off until the late week.
Both.
Gary: Do you see a chance east of KC near Columbia getting in on the snow. The weather channel keeps advertising in their videos and snowfall maps of a heavier swath of snow across Central Missouri in the 2-4” to 3-5” range. I know back when the winter forecast came out it was indicated that areas east and north east of Kansas City had a slightly better chance of seeing more snow this winter. So far that has not planned out. There has been more snow at KCI airport than at the Columbia Regional Airport. Last night the local station here indicated that we have received under 3 inches total for the entire winter in Columbia. Do you think a dusting to 2” is a good amount at this point to could amounts be higher in my local area? Thanks
Rod, Ashland, MO.
Rod,
Good questions, and thank you for the information. I didn’t know Columbia, MO was that low. With this set up I wouldn’t say the chance increases to the east. It seems about the same or less. But, let’s see how this trends.
Gary
Columbia Airport snow totals so far:
Nov: 0.00
Dec: 1.10”
Jan: 1.50”
Feb: 0.00” so far
Total snow so far this season: 2.6”
Talk about a snow drought, ugh!!
Gary When or what time will you Decide on May happen ? You had a 60% chance last night and not sure what it is now % ? a Dustin to 2″ or more if trends ?
I mean a Dusting to 2″ or more if trends ?
Terry
Last night Gary said he has not been able to tell us that he sees a big storm coming.
And with this years LRC he doubts that he will.
So, even if he ups the chance of snow to 100 %, it will not be a big snow. Just more of the same.
Nobody really knows either way Richard.
Uh, yeah I was quoting what Gary said last night Heat
he said hes sticking with that FOR NOW.
Until it happens, it’s not going to happen in my mind. Dusting at best, hoping for more.
in my mind anyone shouldn’t say is it going to snow or not snow ? Because that can be miss Leading its better to say it going to snow and if it don’t if there is a chance an shows it.
Terry
It is
agree
It’s days like today that can turn a snow lover into a frustrated golfer! Enjoy the beautiful day, everyone! (Insert your choice of music to encompass the building suspense of the next 👽wave🌨! Oh, and I appreciate everyone who takes time to share a model. Especially the most exaggerated ones! When I first started following the blog, NOTHING made the experience more gratifying that seeing a snowfall map putting KC near those 20 somethin numbers! It has been a learning curb for keeping cool, calm, and collected. Haha so don’t lose your enthusiasm folks! Winters still coming!
100% agree!
Terry,
What would you like his forecast to be? What would you like him to base that on? There is data that says we will get more than a dusting to two inches. There is also data and this years LRC that says a dusting to two inches is the most we will get. Especially when you consider there isn’t a real storm associated with this snow chance.
You don’t have to have a real storm to get a good Snow And if the dynamics are right you can .
I don’t think you always have to be right to have a forecast Who cares if you lose 1 or 1 We all can’t be perfect.
What ??
Totally agree Terry!
It’s going north again Terry. Finally finished shoveling the sidewalk from the 3 inches of snow Gary predicted for KC.
In reguards to the idea that the models can never predict a winter storm for this area more than 24 hours out, while it is very true that after day 3 models are very iffy and an exact forecast from 6 days out will usually never verify, some of it is because of the pattern, in this LRC we are in the “wrong spot”( at least for the cold season) therefore, when a model predicts a big storm 6 or 8 days out, then by default almost you know that it is not reading the pattern right, its not that the model never gets a storm close to being right in that time range one in a while( and I would argue it has this year) BUT this year, when the model is “right” or close to it, is when it is showing nothing at day 6 or day 8 ect. IF we were in the right spot, it would look quite a bit differently, then there likely would have been at least a few storms that would have shown up 6 days plus out, that would end the end hit the area somewhat close to the 6 day forecast( it would have still likely bounced around from a big storm to a small one to nothing and back again ect. but when the time came, and the storm hit, we would have remembered that the storm first shown up many days earlier, and more or less it came to pass. this is not only why it seems that in the past few years, every long range storm that shows up is false, but also why we see other areas that get a somewhat long range snow forecast that turns out to be right( because they were not in the wrong spot, or at least not as much), so its not that the models can NEVER predict a snow in advance here, but when you are in a “bad pattern” then the only way a model can predict a long range snow is, well at the times when its not reading the pattern correctly, add in the fact that I think the models make the “same” or similar mistakes that can cycle with the pattern( since its forecasting the future of the state of the atmosphere, that has already cycled through, using the same calculations and a model can’t “learn”, it will likely spit out the same false storms that it did in the past, there fore if there is a pattern that will confuse it into falsly predicting big storms at certain times, then those false storms will show up alot.)
Updated model trends:
GFS: Widespread 3-5″
CMC: Widespread 2-4″
EURO: 1-3″ Metro, 3-5″ Far N MO
NAM (12z): 2-3″
Are those 18z data figures? Could it be possible the models are starting to come together? Around that 2-3″ appears to be the mean.
They were all the 12z runs. 18z comes out later this afternoon for the GFS and NAM. I do agree that models are consistently showing something. Regardless of specific totals, they are all agreeing on snow at the least.
Question .
Anybody know if kshb in-house model is the same thing as their Powercast ?
Is powercast a model ?
Powercast is an in-house model, it likely uses a blend of various model inputs to come to the most likely outcome.
Boy oh boy, the storm for NEXT weekend is a freaking powerhouse. Enormous scope on that one, haven’t seen the pressure but reminds me of a bombo type storm with its size and strength. I know it’s likely fantasy, but so was this weekend’s storm last week everyone said it would vanish, well, it’s still here!
Thanks Hume
I asked because on Grys fb live today in studio with Gerard, they showed what 4 models were saying for Saturday ( not maps, bar graphs). The highest one was labeled Our Model, and it showed 7.7 inches.
I wonderd if that would be the same as powercast map that they show on air.
Real Humedude, Can you show us a map or provide a link to this powerhouse storm that showing up for the next weekend just for us snow lovers who like to look at Fantasy storms until one day they become reality. Thanks
This whole blog is just more clickbait to get us into a frenzy again..Its time to just face the music that we are absolutely not in the right place for the last few years in regards to accumulating snows.
Gary said it himself at the top – “Will it snow this weekend? i am not 100% certain we will even see snowflakes, but I am close to 100% confident in at least flurries.”
Time to move onto Spring.
So does that mean you are taking the bait?
naw…that’s too easy and a bit lazy. We will have more chances…just be patient. We ve had decent snows before and we will again…nobody knows when.
The ICON is getting on board with accumulating snow, I guess I will too, all the 12z models have at least 1in most have 2 or more.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2018020818/icon_asnow_us_24.png
And it shows Chicago getting hammered !
They are under a warning from 6 pm tonight – 9 pm Friday
Does anyone know much about the ICON model? They just put it on Tropical Tidbits recently but I’d never heard of it beforehand. I Googled it the other day but didn’t come up with much, except for some stuff in German. :-/
Welp.. http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2018020818&fh=78&r=us_c&dpdt=
Yep
NAM is not looking good, what else is new?
GFS still being dumb and holding onto the snow. I Have lost massive amounts of Confidence and respect for the GFS, i used to see it as the very best model available and anymore I just laugh at it. Almost as bad as the Canadian at this point…..
Canadian has been much better than the GFS this year
The European Model was the worst one on Tuesday. All of the models have been horrible. The only way the GFS redeems itself, as if it is a being, is to produce the wide spread 3 to 6″ amounts. And, that would place us all in shock, LOL.
I’m really hoping there is a slight southward trend in the snow on the evening and overnight models. As it’s looking Columbia Missouri is kind of on the southern edge of accumulating snow with maybe 1-2”. According to the weather channel and weather underground looking like 2 to 4 inches but that might be a little bit overdone, just depends on how much freezing rain sleet mixes in.
18Z GFS still claiming KC will see 6″+ through noon Monday.
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conussfc.php?run=2018020818&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=096
Happy Thursday afternoon everybody!!
The GFS is doing its best Tom Petty impersonation…standing its ground and it won’back down. It has for sure been consistent over the past 6 runs..not that its necessarily right but it sure has been consistent.
I am probably going to get harpooned for this next comment and that’s but I’ll throw it out there anyway. Comparing the 12Z NAM and 18Z NAM the only real difference between the two is the amount of QPF. If you look at the humidity at the 750 and 850 levels and the wind direction they are pretty much identical as is the vorticity at 500 and 700. Something just seems a bit off with it. Obviously the NAM has been consistent with much less than the GFS so we are talking getting .25-.75 instead of 1-2 but this runs seems a bit off. Just my humble thoughts…
Taking a blend of the NAM and GFS from the 6z-18Z I’ll stick with my above amounts for my small neck of the woods; 1-2 inches with a 10% chance of 3 and 2% chance of 4 plus. Like last night I will still go with less that 10% that I receive just a few flakes to a dusting…I am pretty confident with the 1-2.
Finally, like last night, I would still respectfully argue that in the next 3 weeks there are 3-4 waves that one of them has a 30% chance of giving us a decent winter event which I would describe as 3-5 inches of snow or 2-3 inches of sleet or .10-.30 of ice. Pretty small chance I admit, but a chance nonetheless…again, just my humble opinion and as always, the crow is ready and waiting…
Have a great Thursday night everyone
Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence
Gary, are you going to post a snowfall map for this storm?
My feelings are that there is going to be a small area that receives snow.. snow will develop and move mostly straight east and likely track over the same area. My prediction is dusting-1 south of I70, 1-2 for the metro area, 2-4 from North Kc to St. Joe and 4+ north of St. Joe. We need to see if the gfs trends in the direction of the nam which I believe will happen… we need to watch for a decrease in the area of snow, northward trend, and a lessening in totals.
Thoughts?
Want a snowfall map, her you go…
https://www.weather.gov/eax/weatherstory
Aren’t areas south of I-70 still the metro area? Until you get out of the metro area that is.
I haven’t seen any other mention of mixed precipitation with this storm for several days. How much of a concern should that be close to the metro?
NWS used the word complex in description of this system. So I’ll wait until this time tomorrow to look again. Complex means, we reserve the right to 180 on this. In my field complex we employment is code for there will likely be bugs in the finished product.
Dang auto correct. Complex development… Not we employment.
Lol !
Auto correct can be as confusing, or useless as the models !
NWS still calling for a wintry mix Saturday for central, south, Missouri.
https://twitter.com/NWSKansasCity/status/961764515745583104
The storm for the end of next week looks like it could really dig & if this model is close by Friday Amarillo, TX could end their dry steak with an significant ice storm & maybe some snow. Just maybe since this is showing the storm south of the area it will start trending north in time and just maybe we could catch lightning in a bottle and get a nice snowfall but not giving up on this weekend storm just yet, just maybe it could squeeze out a 3”+ snow for KC & if I’m lucky drop 1-2” over central MO.
http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2018020818&fh=186&r=conus&dpdt=
I’m on that particular storms bandwagon now. Coming up through the SW, pulling up gulf moisture, that’s how we get Big snows around here. Sure it might poof, but I like it’s possi militias right now. Past run wasn’t good as the 12Z, but mayne it will trend back north like you say. It was VERY heavy convective type snowfall, looked blizzardesque to my untrained eye
I’m watching that one, that’s winter Storm Terry right there!
I am analyzing this fascinating set up. And, I am watching the NAM model try its hardest to not snow in KC, but then it just has to, so just before it ends it finally does produce a nice band of snow from 10 PM to 6 AM Saturday night-Sunday. It is one notch from being a big snowstorm, and one notch from being a dusting at most. Have we discussed this delicate situation many times in this pattern?
Gary
Blah Blah Blah….no snow Mr. Gary!!! Bring on Spring. Winter is over my Friend.
The white dream is over
okay, so the odds are in our favor then….it has to break the snowstorm way some time and we are due.
Lol Nam stands for Not a model
don’t knock it Terry…the Nam showing snow for 8 hrs
I no it’s going to snow.
That solution wouldn’t really make sense, per the LRC though, would it?
First time poster.
Interesting development. The NAM now seems to think this will be a Saturday Night/Sunday day event:
http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2018020900&fh=48&r=us_c&dpdt=
http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2018020900&fh=72&r=us_c&dpdt=
Very small sliver right across the area ranging from 1.5-3.5
Though the Standard 10:1 is way smaller amounts, and probably is more realistic.
So tired of these piddly little snows is like just one big snowstorm them bring on storm season or well storm season be boring like this winter?
Gary, thinking about doing a FB live tomorrow discussing the trends? Hopefully the models will somewhat come into an agreement ONE DAY before the snow. By God, they have been terrible.
Best “model” over the past few years is the radar day of. What is this…1970?
That is spot on!
Man the GFS won’t quit, it has widespread 3 to 6 across the viewing area. I thought itr would start trending down tonight.
It looks like the gfs might have slightly more precip on tonight’s run. It shows a 2nd wave coming in on the back side
Lets see what it says tomorrow.
Per 4+1 channel the nam has gone up in totals for the storm to almost 3 inches for the metro
LoL…I wouldn’t quote that channel…they predicted the highest totals for the last non-storm of any news station in KC and were the last to real it in.
Exactly, and I heard about it big time. It was not our forecast. NOW, The trend may be up, but we have been through this too many times. The Euro has not gone over 1″ or so. I would like to see if that model goes up or down later tonight.
I am on the air in minutes. I am going with a dusting to 2″, but will talk possibilities.
Gary
Don’t fall for it fellow bloggers!!!!!!
New GFS data out & accumulating snow inched a little further south, clearly 2-4” across my area near Columbia. Mixed precipitation vs all snow line just south of me near Hwy 50 in Jeff City area. Would like to see another one county southern shift. I hate freezing rain. Bring on the snow!!
http://www.grib2.com/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_72HR.gif
looks like 1-3 is the general consensus, and wide spread for the area. LoL..Gary is still in super cya mode with a dusting to 2 inches.
It’s always better to go up. If I can go up on our totals on Friday, it will be a good thing. But, going 1-3″ of snow has not happened in a very long time. So, I will wait another few model runs. We have learned.
Gary
So what time will the snow start here? I understand that Chicago is getting some decent snow…
The EURO is quite lame again. Nebraska gets it good yet again.
Just got in to clinton mo from mn. The drive through northern ia was terrible. Snow packed roads and white out conditions. Fortunately it cleared by the time we got to des moine! Snowfall rates were impressive! Hopefully the trip back on sun is less stressful!
Nothin like a little white knuckle drivin’ to keep a guy honest. Good luck wettin a line down there this weekend.