Good morning bloggers,
Well, let’s be realistic and honest here. And, most of you know I don’t hold back, and I share with you just about everything, if you ask. Yesterday was not good for meteorologists in Kansas City. I am a bit surprised at the lack of snow, but the warning signs were there. Just look at the titles of the last few blog entries.
February Blog Titles:
- Kansas City In A Snow Hole
- Try Not To Get To Excited About Snow Yet
- The Snow Struggle Continues
- Three & Out, Punt
- The Trend Is Up On Super Bowl Sunday
- Will Tuesday’s Storm Hit Or Miss?
- Snow Chances & Models
- The Accurate Forecast From 5 Days Ago: We Will Likely Be Missed By Tuesday’s Storm
These are all of the blog titles in February thus far. I think they say a lot. It’s not like we were really expecting to get hit hard, and there was a way to forecast this storm better, no doubt about it. But, we still did not get it right. Forecasting a dusting to 2″ of snow is like forecasting if it is going to sprinkle or have light rain for an hour or two during the spring. If it rains, then perception will be that we got it right. If it snows, then the perception goes to did we also get the amounts accurate as well, which is a challenge for any precipitation forecast. Either way, we still did not get this right. As discussed multiple times, including big time in that video, the storm just needed to be a bit different, tilted a bit less positively, and just a bit stronger. It wasn’t, and the KC metro ended up with the short end of the snow stick. No excuses, my forecast was not good at all yesterday. The negative Nancy’s out there say such horrible things, as if we never, ever get a forecast right. When we forecast snow, and it snows, guess what? That is an accurate forecast. Forecasting the exact amounts is where snow becomes more glaringly difficult to forecast. We have done quite well in the past few years, but this one went bad as not even a dusting happened. But, this has been a very rare occurrence.
The forecast was blown for KC. Even my dusting to one inch of snow forecast didn’t happen. My “slam dunk” of at least a dusting forecast failed. On my way home it snowed last night, yes I experienced ONE snow shower from this storm. This came after the perception of a missed forecast on Sunday. Believe it or not, our team forecasted Sunday’s storm better than everyone else. All last week we thought it may snow last Sunday and it did. Did I expect a blizzard for 1 hour with nearly 3″ over the south metro area, no way. But, it did snow, and if you forecast snow and it snows, then the forecast is accurate. But, when it comes to forecasting amounts, well good luck. And, other forecasts were much worse than ours on Sunday and yesterday, so there is a buzz around town that we are wrong often. It is the landscape we have to deal with, but we will get over it. Yesterday was not a good day, this has not been a good week, and now we have more of this weather pattern to forecast as another system is already showing up. Will it make us look like fools again?
I have a lot of pride and passion in trying to change the perception of meteorologists, the perception from many who think the weather can’t be predicted accurately. I have spent my entire career trying to change this perception. The battle continues, and I hate getting thrown in with all of the other forecasts, when more often than not (Not always) Weather2020 and KSHB have the best, most accurate, and most specific forecast. We took a hit, but we have had much worse forecasts in the past, it has just been a while since one was this glaringly inaccurate. I should have stuck to my first impression of this storm five days before. I didn’t.
So, what is next? Another chance of snow is already in the forecast, but are we going to believe any of the models that predict anything significant for KC? Take a look at this next storm, this upper level, 500 mb forecast map valid on the day we are supposedly going to have our next chance of snow.
Before we get to our next chance of snow near KC, take a look at what is forecast to happen today. Can you believe this? Of course we can, as this is what happens to storm systems after they pass our area this year. The same storm that pulled off making fools out of meteorologists in Kansas City is now targeting the northeastern states. My goodness I would love to forecast this. The meteorologists over the northeast have their own set of challenges. But, instead of trying forecast a dusting or an inch or two of snow, they get to forecast whether or not it will be five inches or a foot of snow. Forecasting a dusting is like forecasting if it is going to sprinkle outside. Think about that, ridiculous what we have had in our bag of forecasting opportunities in KC, while in other parts of the nation they get to deal with this storm to forecast, the same one that did not get its act together over our area yesterday. After this system exits the focus then shifts back to the plains, but what is it we are really looking at with this pattern that continues to cycle regularly.
The developing weekend weather pattern:
500 mb flow valid Saturday:
Where is the storm? Seriously, where is it? Here we go again, a very disorganized pattern with a trough severely positively tilted from Hudson Bay in Canada extending west-southwest to Portland, OR. I pointed out to Jeff Penner and our team a few weeks ago where this feature is one of the long-term long wave features, one of the anchor troughs that is causing our “problem” in KC. And, here it is again, for around the 15th time this season. There was one of these stretched out troughs that helped us miss a storm in December that did hit the deep south with snow. What is going to happen this time?
Surface forecast valid Saturday morning:
Oh no, seriously? We have an area of precipitation forecast to be located from southeast Arkansas to Florida, and another one entering northwest Missouri Saturday morning extending northwest into Nebraska. This GFS model also produces snow in KC in the next 12 hours, but is it to be believed? There is always one model that has no snow. They just won’t converge on a snowy solution near KC. In this last storm it was the NAM model that not one time had any snow forecast for KC, and yet I ignored that model. WHY? Well, take a look at the one model that shows the miss this time.
European Model Forecast For Snow Ending Sunday Morning:
The other models have snowier solutions, but again are we to believe it? Even if the models come out this morning with snow, are we to believe it? I say no, and we will not until I can see a good reason for it to happen. There is a good reason for this not to happen right now. That stretched out trough is a problem. Let’s discuss the trends in the comments on the Weather2020 blog.
Kansas City Weather Timeline:
- Today: Mostly sunny. High: 28°
- Tonight: Clear and cold. Low: 15°
- Thursday: Sunny and much warmer. High: 48°
- Friday: Increasing clouds. Much colder again with the winds increasing from the north at 5-15 mph. High: 32°
- Saturday: Cloudy with a chance of snow. High: 22°
Have a great day and thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.
Gary
I think we all understand that forecasting here, especially in the winter, is very, very difficult, but isn’t that one of the reasons that being a meteorologist in Kansas City is appealing? Because of the challenge? I believe if you were a met in Phoenix you’d die of boredom. My question, though, is if you HAVE to blow a snow forecast is it better to forecast no snow and have some or forecast snow and have it miss? I think I know the answer.
Have a great day– I’m looking forward to sunshine, even if it is cold!
Good question Patti. This is one to think about. On this situation, there was a way to forecast no snow, but look at how close it was to snowing in KC, it was really one county north. Now, many of you who read through the blogs the past few days know that I explained how “slightly weaker and poof” would happen. But, in the end we got lumped in with everyone and forecasted a small snow event that did hit some, but missed most of the population. If we would have forecasted no snow, then it would snow and cause all kinds of school closings, I think that would have been much worse.
Gary
Gary, looks like SE Iowa may get the next snow as well. We got 2.5 inches last night and we now have roughly 4 inches of snow on the ground.
Kirksville got 2” last night, & 1” on Monday. Not a lot, but the kids can go sledding. Meteorology is a science – science makes hypotheses & checks the results. Sometimes it’s right on, sometimes it’s close, & sometimes it’s wrong. Thank you for making science real. I teach science & want kids to experiment & not be afraid to be wrong as we can learn from those mistakes. You model what science is about, so thank you!
Great blog Gary… I think you’re right, people do go pretty crazy around here when it snows. We should be grateful to have a meteorologist so invested in the weather & weather blog!
+1
what does that mean?
I wondered that too yesterday when there were + signs on comments.
I think they mean they like the comment ?
Could just use the 👍🏻 Emoji if using your smart phone.
I am using a computer so I can’t use the thumbs up. But yes I saw it yesterday and thought it was “blogging language” for a “LIKE”.
+1 😄
It is 100% blogging language for like. +1
We have a saying where I work: “you have to take both sides of the coin.” Your “coin,” so to speak, is your passion for weather.
One side of that coin is that your passion makes you interesting and fun to watch and follow. It’s what enabled you to think outside the box and come up with the LRC. The other side of the coin is that your passion is what causes you to overreach sometimes on forecasts. Snow is an amazing experience and that fires you up. (Me, too).
We (and you) can’t have one side without the other. We have to take both sides.
I’m good with that. Keep up the good (and passionate) work.
+1
Gary, first off thanks for your efforts, regardless of the outcome! Secondly, i will be traveling from Minnesota to truman lake (clinton mo) thur to sun. Im seriously beginning to worry about the ice potential down that way sat nt/sun. I know the models have been terrible but they seem to b painting an icy solution. I have zero issues driving im the snow but really dont want to risk a 9 hr drive with ice. What r your thoughts on precip type for this location. Thx!
Your going to be in my neck of the woods. The fishing has been good lately!
Thats what im hoping clint. Would like to fish without drilling through 20 in of ice..lol
Here comes our next flurry storm.
Gary,
I heard you say last night it was your 20th anniversary for Andy and you. I wanted to say congrats and hope you guys have many more happy years! Maybe you will get to celebrate with some snow this weekend, MAYBE lol!
I recorded 2 1/2″ of snow this morning in Maryville. Waiting on snow to melt in my cylinder to get liquid equivalent. Have a great day Bloggers!
Michael
Good work eating some crow on the blown forecast. Had you done that yesterday, rather than hoisting the claim of an accurate forecast, it probably would have saved you some grief, but I digress. 🙂
The Saturday event is now what’s on everyone’s radar…and we get to cross our fingers and ride the roller coaster again!
Gary thanks for all you do and thanks for taking the hit on this last miss. Now let’s all move on to the next one that will miss us😳.
Gary:
Good cold February morning to you sir. Bottomed out at 11 degrees this morning….it was beautiful out this morning though with the waning moon light over the snow.
Excellent blog this morning Gary….just excellent!!!! Thanks for all the detailed information and also thanks so much for providing such a wonderful place to come learn and experience the weather!!! We are indeed fortunate to have this blog and to have you dedicate so much time to answering our questions and giving so many insights into not only the LRC, but also to each wave that comes across the plains.
Regarding this weekend I went out on a limb yesterday and said I thought there was at least a 30% chance that one of these waves in cycle 3 will produce a decent winter event for our area. If I am reading the LRC correctly…a huge if of course…this wave has switched places and is actually the wave of December 16th that gave Lawrence .43 of qpf. If that is indeed the case then maybe this will be that wave…again…only a 30% chance but I would respectfully argue that it does bear watching.
Another interesting tidbit about this compared to yesterday’s wave is that the 558 line on both the GFS and NAM was in northern Oklahoma where as yesterday’s was around Pittsburgh, Kansas. Granted this is only 2 models but that is something different as of right now….that can and will obviously change but it is interesting. Finally, unlike yesterday’s wave, the GFS and NAM are both in general agreement with the features and also the GFS was actually consistent from run to run….the 0Z and 6Z look almost identical at the surface and at the 500 level…we never saw that with yesterday’s wave.
I am not saying at all that this will verify….there is at most a 30% chance…but in my humble hobbyist opinion, one of these wave is cycle 3 even if only at 30% can produce a decent winter event and I think this does bear watching.
I feel like I’m the girl in the movie Jaws when she was yelling shark in the pond…shark in the pond after the they had discovered the kid’s prank and everyone told her to be quiet the hoax was over….of course Jaws was in the pond…..but will this storm give us a decent winter event??
Have a great day eveyone
Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence
“Switched places”? Does the LRC allow for that kind of manipulation?
So the 12/16 event corresponds to the upcoming weekend — approximately 60 days after 12/16?
4 inches in Rock Port. No school and slick roads with a car in the ditch by my house.
Gary, I am curious why you would try to nail down a snowfall forecast. Given the 2017-2018 LRC pattern and how it is similar to other drought patterns, I would suggest to all your bloggers that the chance of greater than an inch or two of snow is very low. Every system in the winter will be this way given the pattern (IMHO), and when there is a storm the chance that the 30 mile wide band of snow will affect KC or any particular area is about 10%.
I thought KC would be in line for a few backside snow storms, storms that strengthened over southern Missouri and would throw snow back to the west right over KC, but it now looks like the storms cannot amplify even as far east as Missouri. I know you want to keep hope alive, keep weather exciting, but it’s just not going to happen this winter for 90% of Kansas and it may end up being 100% of Kansas without a snowstorm this year. Unreal!
Yeah, the issue goes back to a part of Gary’s blog post. The positively tilted long wave trough means that systems can’t amplify until they become negatively tilted more towards the northeast. (big surprise)
Weak and suppressed has been the common theme this year for most of the Midwest..
We need a neg NAO to slow down the eastward progress of these systems and alow the to strengthen more to our west. But there is no sign of that this winter.
You would think Clint, but I believe during the drought of 95-96 (could have been a diff drough year) the NAO was negative for 7 months, unprecedented and unrepeated since. So it makes sense that a negative NAO would help, but not always the case.
Urbanity,
I do believe I have stated just what you are saying many times. We have yet to predict a “major winter storm”. So, these small predictions continue, and we just had one miss.
Gary
Gary,
Way to put the last 5 blog post titles up. That is proof to the trolls that your forecast has been consistent. I truly appreciate how involved you choose to be with this blog. Despite the rude and mean comments, you continue to teach all of us and engage in conversation with us. We all get caught up in the “snow” frenzy. And so many of us want that BIG snowstorm so bad, its hard to not let our hopes get high when a few of the models are showing a significant amount. Thank you for who you are, what you do for our community, and for ignoring the trolls and continuing to engage in weather talk with us!
Well, Paris got 5.9 inches of snow. The most at one time since 1987.
This pattern is very dysfunctional.
As soon as the Military /CIA is done with their Weather Manipulation Operations in this area, things will return to normal
Care to elaborate nate?
I wouldn’t even try this one with anyone on here. Trust me. Just don’t.
Though, if you could, please elaborate some. Any links? Maybe you are part of the Ops and can give us a time frame of when you’ll gtfo so we can have some snow here? Okay thanks.
So Gary When will you to make up your mind if you think it’s for sure going snow this weekend ?
It might snow, but it will probably be a dusting.
Terry, your snow came north to us. Looks like the Saturday snow may too. Fingers crossed!!
On Sunday, LOL! Let’s see if we can get any solution that makes sense, and when it does we will present it.
Gary
If you only had the LRC, and all other modeling tools were down, what percent chance would you give KC this weekend for snow?
Live by the model, die by it as well. Don’t believe what you’re seeing now about this weekend, not for a second.
Sorry but no one made a prediction about the Sunday snow until literally a hour before
You are absolutely correct. I own a snow company in Lawrence KS and was watching Jeff Penner at 8 am and he was still saying light snow showers, maybe some snow blowing across the road. I took all my guys off call and then 2 hrs later I was scrambling to get some salt trucks going, and ended up working 13 hrs because we did No prep due to the fact we were led to believe this was a non event.
Now, yesterday I had equipment placed, all trucks fueled, salt trucks loaded, rented my normal extra loaders for removal, and all crew on call until 9 pm and nothing happened. So, its small companies like mine that take dramatic hits when these forecasts fail. We are the ones out the time and $$, not the mets or the complaining bloggers. We are literally the only ones that can make a legit complaint.
I have been in this game for 20+ yrs and have dealt with this before, its the weather it can change, but all we ask is that you mets own it.
I appreciate your candor and insight, Gary. Thank you for taking the time to admit that the forecast yesterday was not good…and that forecast leading up to yesterday was not very accurate.
I also want to take a moment to express appreciation to the bloggers here on Weather 2020. A majority of the comments yesterday were on-point and definitely worth reading. While there were a few trolls who have shown up in the last few days; a majority of the people who disagreed with your assessment regarding the accuracy of your forecast were people who have been around the blog for a while. I believe it is absolutely appropriate for people to have discussions about the weather forecast…and they should be allowed to provide feedback in a constructive manner…albeit negative or positive.
The goal of the weather blog is to learn, discuss, and formulate opinions. None of us should be lemmings and follow Gary blindly, as it is through our questions and comments that growth and understanding can occur. The LRC is not a 100% perfect solution to weather forecasting. But, it can be continually improved by the contributions of bloggers who question its validity and its use when forecasting a storm system.
Finally, I, like many others, enjoy having a blog where weather discussions and learning can occur. So, thanks to everyone who makes this blog an adventure, every day!
Thanks Gary
Just curious. Not complaining.
So what did happen that we didn’t even get that dusting ?
Why were you so sure that we would, but didn’t. Maybe I missed the explanation.
The tailing energy that passed around 10pm last night was modeled to be stronger, that would have given the city about 1 hour worth of light snow, hence dusting to 1″ forecast. It was just too weak and fighting dry surface air, we had echoes overhead but the snow was sublimated into thin air before hitting the ground. Close but no cigar, I’m pretty sure I didn’t even get a flurry at my house in Shawnee.
Thanks Hume
Gary, I commend you for this blog entry. Yesterday was a tough day; it was a very hard day to predict the weather. It would be so hard to explain to certain people that this really wasn’t even a storm–just a small wave of energy. As you did say numerous times, a small change could mean anything.
Looking at the radar this time yesterday, I knew that it looked like it would go north, but I did not want to believe it. Watching it move northeast, it never looked good for us, but I still did not want to believe. The nam and the gfs began to be in agreement with a small zone of 2-3 inches and that did happen! Just a little bit more north than what they portrayed. A lot of this time storm, as you talked about, Gary, was nowcasting. What I believed the KC meteorologist did a poor job on was nowcasting.
For people who love snow, it is so hard for them to take out their emotions in what they think is going to happen with the weather. I think a lot of us wanted it to snow so bad that we forgot to trust in what we were seeing on radar. This is a huge challenge for me as a college student striving to be a meteorologist. Many times, I predict what I want to happen.
Let’s take this storm and move on. The weather is always changing and moving on. Let’s do the same.
Jack
Great comment Jack,
Yes, the writing was on the wall. I “wanted” it to happen to, and not that I was wish casting, but I was hoping that back band would form. It only would have taken one band for one hour to produce what we predicted. It didn’t ever happen, but it came very, very close if you watched radar around 8 to 9 PM, but then poof.
Very difficult, and now Saturday has similar challenges. Thank you so much, and good luck to you. Keep in touch.
Gary
JL said basically the same thing yesterday on his blog which he updated at 1 p.m. He thought the back end would give KC a little.
( not sure if it was his gut feeling or if it was models. As we know, he does not use the LRC)
Yep, and another very flawed 12z GFS model shows up wanting to give us another fantasy snowstorm.
Well done this morning Gary!
This blog is very informative for us that depend on this forecast for work. My question is about the temps, I’ve seen predicted high temps for Saturday range anywhere from 17 to 34 degrees. Any idea what the high temp will be for Saturday?
Unfortunately, you don’t really have control over it. If snow is in the forecast, it is going to make your news team want to cover it, even if it is a small chance. The news media are the ones really hyping up the storms, not you guys.
This reminds me a lot of the “major ice storm” that was supposed to happen last year. Hype, hype, hype, then nothing. The weather teams and the news teams need to do a better job communicating their impressions because you have to have at least some say over the amount of coverage.
12Z GFS and NAM actually in somewhat of agreement for 3-6″ this weekend and, for once, it’s only three days out. Maybe it will actually happen this time?
Craig, yes, but north, like Iowa and northern Missouri.
Funny thing is GFS paints 4-7 inches just barely south of KC. 99.9% chance this doesn’t happen.
Models cant predict snow for kc esp more than a couple of days out…I keep saying it and some keep posting models showing snow storms 7-10 days out. Why post something that has a proven track record of being almost entirely wrong every time…you could almost call it posting “fake weather news”, at least if it’s done by someone who knows better. LoL
GFS 12 z
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=scus&pkg=asnow92hr
The south rises again 😄
I know Gary repeatedly mentioned a parallel between yesterday’s event and the Christmas eve snow in KC…per his theory.
Question of the day:
If we’re on a 45-day cycle, what events from the past correspond with this weekend’s potential snow?
This weekend is February 10.
45 days earlier was December 27, 2017.
90 days earlier was November 12, 2017.
A series of disturbances came through Nov 11th -18th and again December 21st -29th. During both months, each system was minor in precipitation. we are seeing these same systems this time around and acting the same in terms of amounts and dynamics.
The cycles are 45-51 days
So 47 days from this Saturday was the Christmas snow
What December snowfall corresponded to this past Sunday’s surprise 2″ event?
Why do you think Sunday was such a surprise? It just amazes me when many have suggested this. It is simply not the case. Last week, every day, we had a chance of snow on Super Bowl Sunday. We were concerned about potential for travel problems to parties. We even suggested a dusting to an inch would fall. What happened? It snowed. The intensity of the snow was definitely a surprise. That is the only surprise part of it at all. Now, we can go into who did well at Nowcasting and who did not. I know that Jeff Penner was working early Sunday morning and went with a 60% chance of snow at 6 AM, then at 8 AM he went up to a 100% chance. Not bad at all, when you consider others were at 10% at 6 AM, and then 30% by 8 AM. It was like an MCS coming in from the northwest, like a complex of thunderstorms. They are difficult to predict.
Now how does it fit into the pattern? Perfectly. I will share more about the LRC in tomorrows blog. Everything is on schedule. The fact that we haven’t had one major winter storm in years now is glaring, but this is what these past few patterns have presented us with.
Gary
Lol
Sorry Gary ! I was typing to reply to him and your reply was not there at the time.
Wow Gary
I don’t see where RobertCali said that Sunday was a surprise. He asked what system in December corresponded to Sunday. Why jump him with a defensive whole paragraph of what, where, when.
A simple answer to the corresponding date/system in Dec.
Geesh
I don’t know
As Joek says above there was a series of disturbances Dec 21-29. But I don’t think any produced snow ?
Would need to go back to the blog archives during that period to see.
It is difficult to explain away a missed snowfall forecast vs a missed severe weather forecast. People have such different reactions to snow vs tornadoes, high winds and hail. For example if Gary says this spring there is a 50% of severe storms (all modes of severe weather possible) and the cap does not break, people (excluding storm chasers) will be ok he missed the forecast and accept the explanation as to why storms did not form. Snow is different- I would say from following this blog and comments when Gary does his Facebook live, people generally do not mind the snow, and the impacts are much less than a severe thunderstorm event.
Hi Gary!
I love your forecasts and love reading your blog. Thanks for letting us in on your forecasting process. As a weather newbie, I was wondering if you could explain what a “positively tilted” means when you’re referring to the troughs? Keep up the great work..you’re awesome!
I think it means angled southwest to northeast. Such as forward slash /
Negatively tilted would be the opposite, running from northwest to southeast, such as backward slash \
But what they have to do with storms functioning or not functioning I have no clue
Positively tilted is bad for snow lovers and negatively tilted is good.
What happens in a negative tilted trough to create snow.
And is that the case no matter where it occurs globally ?
GFS/ NAM/ CANADIAN all agree in principle that Saturday will be most organized storm we have had all winter. None of the off runs like past storms, this is different to me from a modeling standpoint its been very consistent. Maybe an icy mix to the south of metro, but looks like a good old fashioned deformation zone right in our back yard this time. I don’t care how bad the models have been, this is first time they have consistently agreed about a storm this far out. Only question to me is if the Euro is now on board, that would be every major global model agreeing about a storm for first time all winter.
Is this is now cycle #4 or still on #3? If we are now into cycle #4, it be the mirror of Cycle #2 which was the worst/driest part of the pattern we have experienced. So maybe the storm going proof was just more of that mirroring coming out of solution. I have the position that cycles #1,3,5,and 7 will be the wet ones around here while #2,4, and 6 may be more of struggle to produce as we saw in entire month of November into early Dec. in cycle 2
I’ll wait until the day of the event before I get too carried way. I’ve seen this show before and I’m tired of the reruns.
I love it, but still don’t believe it… I want to… but just can’t…. post some links please
I’ve been on this forum now for several years and always enjoy hearing the thoughts of my Kansas City area friends. Way back in the day I lived in Ottawa which is where I first heard Gary. I do feel for you that are snow lovers. I live in New Hampshire now and sure enough each storm that has fizzled past you guys has exploded up here into decent snowstorms. This one is no different. We currently set at 33 inches for the season which is actually a bit on the low side for this time of the year. It’s coming down hard this morning and I expect we will get at least 6 more inches out of this one. Make it 7 and we are at 40 inches for the season. I hope you folks get the snowstorm you’ve been waiting for before winter is over!
Thanks for the blog today. I appreciate how hard it is to predict the future and I think you do it the best. I think people enjoy this side of you.
I’ve been on this blog many years. I’ve been here before pay and after pay. I have said all along that the LRC works best with a strong or weak ENSO. This year‘s week La Niña is why it’s not working.
I love to ski, so I look at snow forecasts all over the country. This year I went to ski in the PNW because they have the best snow conditions. I have snowfall history maps that I look at for about 20 different resorts. If there is a pattern this year, it’s 35 days. If you visit on the snow com you can look at the major storms that I’ve hit the PNW (Such as Whistler, Stevens Pass, Crystal Mountain). Nothing lines up for 47 days or anywhere in the 40s or low 50s.
This is just a year that the LRC doesn’t work for forecasting our area—at least. My question to the bloggers, because I havent paid close attention to, is how well it has been a predicting arctic blasts, warm periods, dry. Etc.
This year would be the perfect opportunity, because the models can’t predict what’s happening, for the LRC to shine. It’s been a tough year all over the country for forecasting. So I give Gary a huge break.
35 day cycles ??
I’m not saying a 35 day cycle, but that’s the closest number that adds up with the snowfall data—maybe it’s 70 days
Mark it down, this wknd event will screw up our trip!!!!
I think it was a couple years ago. Groundhog day ? When Gary and all local mets were saying we would get buried in snow.
We got rain. That one was a big disappointment and a fail as for calling for snow, but we did get moisture.
And the non-ice storm last year was not a disappointment. Who likes ice ! But Gary said it would NOT be an issue. They ven changed the time of the Chiefs game from morning to prime time because of the ICE IS COMING forecasts.
So s**t happens even now with all the advances in models, technology. It is still far better today than 15-20 yrs ago with forecasts.
Not that far to the NW of KC winter has been more interesting. I have had 5″ this week and 11″ total for the winter which isn’t bad. (Just not much moisture in it). I was talking to a friend near Gothernburg, NE and they had about the same this week as here but had 12″ the week before with that storm. I think they are near 20″ on the winter. Its seems odd how these storms blast MT and Western NE then lose steam only to intensify as they get past us. Its also made it colder up this way as I have had 2 sub zero mornings this week and a high of 23 so far for the entire week. I agree with the above idea that we need a negative NAO. There just isn’t enough downstream resistance to slow these storms down and let them intensify.
So my liquid equivalent to the 2 1/2 inches of snow that fell in Maryville was .14 inches more moisture than I thought!
Michael
I believe the mets that rely less on models and cycling patterns tend to do better. They don’t get burned as often because they are going with their instincts and their gut. We all know how crappy the models are and have been, even close to an event. Tomorrow’s going to be a different day, certainly different from the one 50 days ago.
They all use models. They don’t use their instincts to issue official forecasts. Maybe a combination.
But they all use tools they use for forecasting,
Saturday is the day we get the monster snow!
Still trolling? Really?
I’m serious…but keep on trolling!
That’s what I like to see.. a troll who really throws himself into his work.
Heat, why do you feed the trolls?
Everytime, if there is a troll to feed you can’t help yourself. Maybe you enjoy engaging them but it’s exactly what they want , ignor them and the game ist fun anymore. See how that works?
On Monday, JL made a heartfelt confession that he, too, was wrong in his forecast for Sunday. It happens. Remember the October surprise in 1995? Who messed that one up? And, we did have a functional storm nearby yesterday in that it did snow near the Iowa border and I’m sure those folks up there are happy to get the moisture. This winter is at least different than the last two snowless winters in that we have had a whole lot of cold. Yes, we have had functional storms nearby which miss us to the north, south, or east. That gives me hope that spring/summer could be interesting. It’s not that we have had absolutely NOTHING! So, if it snows this weekend….great. And if it doesn’t, we’ll get over it. One of these days we will get blasted with a great snowstorm. Just dunno when.
Agreed. It will snow again here big time folks. Not if but when.
well, yeah..obviously eventually
So with everyone slamming the weather people for predicting snow and it not happening… That means this weekend they will hold off and we will finally have a big snow?!?! Wishfully thinking at least…
NWS web page says snow likely both Saturday and Sunday
Shhh don’t jinx it
The EURO is more realistic as usual. Much weaker.
The Euro was the worst model in the last one. It had consistent 3″ or more for three days in a row. Now, it is the lowest one. There is always one model that has little snow, and that model is the most likely one to be right, be it the GFS, Euro, NAM, Canadian model, it has varied from storm to storm, but the model with the lowest snow totals is the one to use.
Gary
None of them are to be believed this far out.
We know Saturdau, the 10th, is 47 days from our Christmas snow, and that was only 1-2 inches.
So maybe we do get a dusting this time
I’ll take the NWS over any model at this point..the models suck.
Huh ? They use models !
I would like us to have a vote. What is more likely to happen?
A. Kansas City proper gets 20 inches of snow.
B. Amarillo goes 200 straight days without a drop of moisture.
C. Atlanta has at least 2 more inches of snow.
GREAT CHOICES! Use the LRC and choose that last letter of LRC.
Gary
C
Gary, would you put the chances of >1” of snow to fall over the weekend at over 50%?
I think he said earlier in the blog he doesnt know yet.
C.
Kansas City has had 8 days below zero and less than 6 inches of snow so far. It’s not global warming, it’s just crap LRC.
Good post today Gary. Totally agree throw the models out and only take them into account Friday – but heed the LRC more.
Just stating the obvious here but sometimes it needs to be said. This is in regards to forecasting an event vs forecasting amounts from that event.
In areas that experience snow and have a forecast for snow then regardless of whether you are in it or not there is physical lasting proof of how much/little you got in your area. If the forecast is for rain and, let’s say, it happens over night and you sleep through it then the only proof that anything occurred is that your driveway/walkway/deck/patio is wet when you wake up in the morning. Unless you have a rain gauge you don’t really know how much you got because it runs off/soaks in unlike snow which tends to hang around a while.
I give mets a pretty wide berth when it comes to amounts – nobody can accurately forecast the exact amount a particular weather event will produce. I am happy with a range – even a wide range. And I do forgive the occasional miss.
Remember – .500 batting avg gets you in the Hall of Fame
Just my 2 cents
George in OP 87th & Antioch
It’s only three days away Gary…no impressions on the the potential Saturday storm yet eh?
Dude ! Really ?
I’m not trolling here but I predict a more northerly route for the Saturday storm, just like last nights storm that produced nearly 3 inches of snow in SE Iowa.
lol…not asking for a forecast…just impressions.
Is this going to be a storm or more of a wave type thing that we just had miss us last night?
You can’t give up on predicting the weather Saturday till Saturday Gary. Who cares you missed one , let it go. What’s your prediction?
Going off the LRC and the pattern this year I would be inclined to say the storm on Sunday will miss Kansas City and maybe give KCI some flurries.
Reasons:
1) The LRC.I would throw out the GFS and Canadian and Euro, and quite frankly even the 12km resolution NAM model with this storm. I think the NAM 3km will have the best handle on this wave Sunday. But weigh the snow totals with the LRC being Dusting to 1″ at a 70% to Friday evening NAM 3km model output 30% factoring.
2) Look at the GFS model valid Sunday morning. 12z Forecast hour 90.
— The high pressure area is “splitting” the storm apart to 2 seperate waves. One hitting western Kansas, one hitting Kansas City.
— Arctic air has been stronger than the models have forecasted this entire winter. The faster progression of Arctic air will cause the part of the storm that is modeled to intensify right over Kansas City to be displaced much further to the east and much weaker.
— The resolution of the GFS is also an issue and the precipitation modeled between the heavier bands may well be virga.
3) We are already on the southern end of this storm per all models.
Lol
+1
Also note the HRRR has OVER estimated cold air this winter, but due to that it may actually have the best handle on the storm on the back end of the runs. But when the storm gets close to skipping over KC, the HRRR may actually be useless because of it’s overestimation of the cold air.
127 NWS KC forecast discussion “The next potential significant weather event will then take form
Saturday. As a broad surface ridge builds into the region from the
northwest, the cold air mass will continue to push into the remnants
of the relatively warmer air mass from Thursday/Friday and provide
elevated frontogenetical forcing for precipitation throughout
Saturday. While moisture in the lower levels will be lacking with
the southern push of the surface ridge, moisture fields generally
starting at 700 hPa and aloft will be fed by a steady stream of
Eastern Pacific moisture embedded within zonal flow aloft. The
limiting factor with this set up is the displaced mid-level
forcing, though should the frontogenetical support and moisture
fields come to fruition, accumulating snowfall is likely
throughout Saturday. Higher snowfall amounts will be favored
across northern Missouri, nearest the mid-level forcing over
southern Iowa.”
Ryan, that’s what I’ve been saying. More snow for us up north in SE Iowa.
Good luck with that! Can you tell I am affected? But, seriously bloggers, let’s be realistic. They aren’t understanding this pattern. Could there be a twist, uh oh….don’t go there.
Gary
Gary, I’m not trying to steal your snow here, lol, but a northern track could happen.
I predict a twist Gary! 😉
I’m not counting on much the rest of the winter. I’m looking forward to warmer temps and longer days..plenty of time to fish and hunt!
I predict a huge monster snow storm for Saturday!!!!!! WOOT!!!! (heh heh…I didn’t say where though)
We do know it is going to be another FRIGID air mass this weekend, starting with free-falling temps on Friday.
Seems this LRC playing a cruel joke on us. We have the cold air. I think last year we just did not have the cold air in place lining up with the moisture.
This cold w/o snow is getting old.
Gary on air now. Says the chance of snow Saturday is low.
Well, strike my kast sentence.
He told Christa a low chance. But when he gave the forecast he showed a 50% chance
*last, not kast !
Richard 50% is not low That right there is just to be on the safe side OK
50% chance to me means you think there’s a decent chance, but you have no idea if it will happen so you say just as much chance of it happening as not happening.
Terry
Low was not my word. It is what Gary told Christa just minutes before he gave the forecast.
Then when he presented the forecast he showed 50%
Richard is is now 60% our
Gary was just on the air – believe he just placed snow chances at 50% and a dusting to maybe two inches in the metro, for Saturday – so, the norm.
uh oh…the last time he said dusting to 2 inches…just saying….
18z GFS Trended down, but NAM still looking good. You guys are making a critical mistake when you discount the pattern as only a dry one. It WILL become a wet pattern once gulf is open for business, that’s the difference right now. Rememebr the multiple inches of rain we got in cycle #1? It will return once the moisture does, watch March as these dry systems suddenly become quite wet
Brett Anthony, one of our Weather2020 meteorologists, did a complete analysis of the spring into early summer set up, and he agrees with you, and so does Jeff Penner. I am on the fence, but there has been a lot of fronts and activity. If you take last nights band of radar echoes, those would be thunderstorms in future cycles and that area near Atchison, KS last night may have had 5″ of rain if it were a set up in May, which this part of the pattern will be cycling back through.
Gary
Gary,
I hate to say it, but I am in agreement with Brett and Jeff. I believe that 17 day stretch will provide ample opportunities for systems to provide solid moisture. Of course, I am a hobbyist so I may be wrong, but I think what happened in October is a good indicator of what we will see repeat in the Spring when more Gulf moisture is available? I also believe we may end up a with one or two late winter surprises once we begin to transition into Spring. The cold fronts have been strong this year and if timed just right with storm set-ups, anything is possible? 😀
Very conservative since yesterday’s bust.
So every time KC lands a “miss” with snow or other weather, a co-worker of mine KEEPS saying that it’s all because of the “Tonganoxie Split.” Of course, this morning, she came in saying it again. What’s funny…is that she can’t really explain what it is…but that that there seems to be some truth to it. I guess I haven’t lived in Kansas long enough to understand this legend…but I would certainly like to shoot it down and replace it with some science! What is this?!?
The Tonganoxie Split was a phrase coined by the Kansas City legendary weatherman Dan Henry. I actually worked with him when I first arrived in 1992 from Oklahoma. He came up with that term to use as his excuse for a storm missing KC. He would have explained that yesterday snow miss was the Tonganoxie Split! And, he would laugh and do his thing. He was very popular.
There is no such thing. In Norman, OK we called it the Norman Pit Affect. No matter where you live when a thunderstorm or storm system misses you it may seem like it split around you. It is just an excuse.
Gary
I figured it was just some hullaballoo phrase, but thank you for clarifying!! Very interesting to hear a little background about where it came from. You are right….there will always be excuses!!
Side note…I like to live by the saying “variety is the spice of life,” and the fact that you get to dive into all the “weather varieties” EVERY day (regardless of the outcome), makes me a very jealous high school librarian. 🙂 At least I can live vicariously through this blog. Thanks for all you do!
Gary, with all due respect, if “Tonganoxie split” is an excuse then couldn’t “wrong spot” be considered the same?
Emaw,
“Tonganoxie split” is a man made (up) phenomenon, “wrong spot” is a descriptive phrase used to explain an observed and explainable result.
Another example of the above would be, the Chiefs are cursed ( man made excuse) or saying the Chiefs lost again because of poor coaching and play calling, poor execution ( an observed and explainable result) Make sense? Gary isn’t making excuses, we are seriously in the wrong spot yet again this year as indicated by the LRC. I still believe the transitional phase will throw in a few curve balls that give us opportunities for adequate storms
Joe, I fully understand where and how the term came about and that it was Dan Henry’s schtick I’ve lived here for 50 years. It was just a toungue in cheek question comparing the two. Make sense?
Yes, 😀 I know you aren’t fully on-board with the LRC and that is okay, science demands we question everything. I really do believe we are in the wrong spot for the majority of these systems, but I am betting one will come through.
Oh my gosh, thanks for sharing! I’ve heard people say that and I’m happy to learn the history.
that is coming from someone with a fundamental lack of understanding of weather…its silly
I think snow is going to move in from the NW & slide SE across the state. The afternoon weather channel video shows at least 1-3” across a widespread area by the time system moves out Sunday but shows a 3-5” band from SW to central into NE MO. I’m leaning towards 1-2” at this early stage for Columbia, MO area.
GFS
http://www.grib2.com/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_96HR.gif
NAM
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_NAM212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif
NWS
http://www.weather.gov/images/erh/gis/EAX_Snow.png
EURO
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/missouri/snow-depth-in/20180211-0300z.html
I only comment once in a blue super moon, but wanted to say to Gary that I appreciate your passion for weather and I think anyone who comments on this blog would say the same. I wanted to comment to that effect yesterday when things were blowing up, but your post today shows your passion. I am an English teacher, small business owner, and avid sports fan and from all my life experiences so far I’ve come to believe that greatness comes from true passion, and what you’re hinting at in this blog is that aspect of fighting the good fight that is involved in greatness and true passion. So Gary, keep fighting with and know that there are plenty of people out there who appreciate the passion you show!
Moderation of models???
Come on🙄.
Gary:
Happy Wednesday evening to you sir!!
After looking at the 0Z NAM this evening and considering the runs today, I am going to go with a call of 1-2 inches for my little neck of the woods throwing out a little wiggle room of a 20% chance of getting 3 and 5% or less chance of getting over 3. On the flip side of that, I will venture and say that there is less than a 10% chance that I get only a flurry or a dusting….I am fairly confident that I will receive accumulations this weekend.
The reason I am still leaving a little wiggle room for a higher amount and think I will have accumiulations is that in my understanding we are in the part of the pattern that in cycle 2 was the December 17th through January 1st. In that time frame there were a series of waves that for Lawrence produced one rain event of .42 qpf and two snow events that produced around 2.5 inches. With that in mind, I figured one of these waves in this time frame could have had the twist and produced the 3 plus event. I actually did have a twist which was this past Sunday so after that I should probably have taken the house money and gone home. However, I’m a glutton for punishment and thought there could be just one more. Well looking at the 500 vort of the GFS and NAM today, the trend was flatter and flatter and they both agree so it would for sure appear the writing is on the wall. However, I still will leave the 20% chance out there in case we catch lightening in a bottle this weekend.
Looking a bit further down the road, I would respectfully argue that there is indeed at least a 30% chance that one of the waves towards the end of cycle 3 and the very beginning of cycle 4 could indeed bring us that elusive 3 plus inch snow or some sort of decent winter event. One wave would be January 10th/11th where I recieved .25 of qpf and then .25 of freezing rain/sleet and snow with snow showers all day the of the 11th-out first snow day in 3 years; a second candidate was the wave of January 14th where I recieved 3.1 inches which was the biggest single snow since March of 2014 followed by 2 nights of belo 0; a third candidate is the January 21st wave that produced thunderstorms in the area with another .25 of qpf then that next day decent snow on the back side with falling temps…..those are 3 waves still to come that I would respectfully argue are worth keeping an eye open. The chances are just around 30% so I’m not in any saying this is likely just that there is a chance.
One thing that has come back right on schedule that did not need a twist was the cold air. One thing the winter version of this LRC has had in aces was the cold air. It is a shame we have yet to get any decent moisture with it. I would say there is less than a 1% chance we have this much cold air next year…i.e. nobody will be skating on Clinton Lake in 2018-2019.
Just a few thoughts for the next couple of weeks…let the dice fly high as Caesar said before he crossed the Rubicon….the clown suit and crow are ready to go!!!
Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence
For what it’s worth, the 0Z models are in general agreement and were only 72 hours out.
NAM and GFS both suggesting 3-5 for the metro.
I guess we’ll see.
Gary, I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again… public perception is a meteorologist’s worst enemy. The public always seems particularly hard on you, and I don’t quite understand it.