Good morning bloggers,
It’s not quite Ground Hog Day, but it is approaching. We are living through the “same pattern” over and over again. Is it any shock that we are still waiting for our first major winter storm? Is it any shock that Amarillo, TX continues to be rain and snow free for over 100 days now? Is it any shock that the fire danger is extreme in California again, 47 days after their last big fires, and 94 days after the October disastrous fires? The same pattern continues to produce the same results. The frustration continues, however, because the models quite often show some snow from five to fifteen days out, and then when it gets to the time it is supposed to snow, well we end up getting 0.1″, 0.4″, or maybe even a 2.1″ snow, or nothing. But, it has been almost four complete years without even 3″ of snow in one storm in KC. So, here we are, and we are dealing with it again. But, it should not be a surprise. The same pattern continues. Like in the movie Groundhog Day, where Bill Murray plays a weatherman living through Groundhog Day 1000s of times before he finally figures out how to be happy and enjoy it, we are sitting here trying to figure out how to be happy and enjoy this “horribly boring” weather pattern that we are in.
For anyone who doubts the LRC, and how incredible it is, just look at this comparison. The top map is from the actual data from November 1, and the second map is from cycle 3. Cycle 1 and cycle 3 of this years pattern. We knew in November that this would likely return around the first few days of February. INCREDIBLE! Now what does this mean?
Kansas City Weather Timeline:
- Today: Sunny and cold. Northwest winds around 10 mph with wind chills near 0 this morning. High: 30°
- Tuesday: Warmer and sunny. High: 48°
Things to look for on the new models:
- A big warm-up Tuesday into Wednesday
- Another dry cold front Wednesday Night into Thursday
- An Arctic high gaining strength by Saturday over Canada with an Arctic blast possible on Sunday
- The GFS had snow on eight straight model runs, but then suddenly took it out for Sunday. The European model had no snow on the same model runs, but then suddenly had 2″ of snow on Sunday on the overnight run. This is something to continue monitoring
Bottom line: To those of you that have a good understanding of the cycling pattern, these same questions that come up over and over again should not be that surprising. This is this years LRC. The ones that try to be devils advocate for the ability to forecast the weather using this new hypothesis are not realizing that the same things happening over and over again are actually verifying the LRC. The potential is still there for a storm or two to come together. I don’t want to end all hope, but we all know that this pattern is just not doing it. Now, maybe “horribly boring” was a strong statement. This likely has been anything but boring, so replace boring with frustrating and I think you get where we are coming from.
Have great day and thank you for spending a few minutes of your day sharing in this Action Weather Blog experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to Weather2020.com and click on the blog over there and join in on the conversation.