It’s Not Quite Ground Hog Day Yet

Good morning bloggers,

It’s not quite Ground Hog Day, but it is approaching. We are living through the “same pattern” over and over again. Is it any shock that we are still waiting for our first major winter storm? Is it any shock that Amarillo, TX continues to be rain and snow free for over 100 days now?  Is it any shock that the fire danger is extreme in California again, 47 days after their last big fires, and 94 days after the October disastrous  fires?  The same pattern continues to produce the same results. The frustration continues, however, because the models quite often show some snow from five to fifteen days out, and then when it gets to the time it is supposed to snow, well we end up getting 0.1″, 0.4″, or maybe even a 2.1″ snow, or nothing.  But, it has been almost four complete years without even 3″ of snow in one storm in KC.   So, here we are, and we are dealing with it again. But, it should not be a surprise. The same pattern continues. Like in the movie Groundhog Day, where Bill Murray plays a weatherman living through Groundhog Day 1000s of times before he finally figures out how to be happy and enjoy it, we are sitting here trying to figure out how to be happy and enjoy this “horribly boring” weather pattern that we are in.

Screen Shot 2018-01-29 at 7.39.27 AM

Screen Shot 2018-01-29 at 7.39.41 AM

For anyone who doubts the LRC, and how incredible it is, just look at this comparison. The top map is from the actual data from November 1, and the second map is from cycle 3. Cycle 1 and cycle 3 of this years pattern. We knew in November that this would likely return around the first few days of February. INCREDIBLE!   Now what does this mean?

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today: Sunny and cold. Northwest winds around 10 mph with wind chills near 0 this morning.  High:  30°
  • Tuesday:  Warmer and sunny. High:  48°

Things to look for on the new models:

  1. A big warm-up Tuesday into Wednesday
  2. Another dry cold front Wednesday Night into Thursday
  3. An Arctic high gaining strength by Saturday over Canada with an Arctic blast possible on Sunday
  4. The GFS had snow on eight straight model runs, but then suddenly took it out for Sunday. The European model had no snow on the same model runs, but then suddenly had 2″ of snow on Sunday on the overnight run. This is something to continue monitoring

Bottom line: To those of you that have a good understanding of the cycling pattern, these same questions that come up over and over again should not be that surprising. This is this years LRC. The ones that try to be devils advocate for the ability to forecast the weather using this new hypothesis are not realizing that the same things happening over and over again are actually verifying the LRC.  The potential is still there for a storm or two to come together. I don’t want to end all hope, but we all know that this pattern is just not doing it.  Now, maybe “horribly boring” was a strong statement. This likely has been anything but boring, so replace boring with frustrating and I think you get where we are coming from.

Have great day and thank you for spending a few minutes of your day sharing in this Action Weather Blog experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to Weather2020.com and click on the blog over there and join in on the conversation.

Gary

Share this post with your friends

52
Leave a Reply

avatar
20 Comment threads
32 Thread replies
0 Followers
 
Most reacted comment
Hottest comment thread
25 Comment authors
RodsedsinkcMattinLeavenworthTerry Recent comment authors
  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
Rod
Guest
Rod

Does anyone see the correlation on Gary’s 500 mb map on Feb 2nd & the below 240 HR GFS fun this evening? It’s like the snow line follows the big dip in the jet stream. I have a gut feeling this is going to be a February to remember and we’re going to get that snow pack in the next two weeks.

Rod, Ashland, MO

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2018013012&fh=240&r=conus&dpdt=

Tdogg
Guest
Tdogg

Maybe this will be a February to remember! And, the biggest snow in KC’s recorded history fell in March! It’s going to be epic!

sedsinkc
Guest
sedsinkc

Urbanity, I spent a few years living in Midland, Texas back in the early ’90s, which has to be very close to the location of the “unmentionable” orifice of the USA. The town itself was tolerable due to white collar oilfield money (which is why I was there), but the surrounding country is some of the ugliest there is. Flat as a pancake and no trees except stunted mesquite bushes. And dry, dry, dry. I had the worst sinus infections and/or pneumonia every winter I was there. When the wind was from the east you could smell the tank farm… Read more »

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I’d rent out Texas and live in Hell.” -General Phillip H. Sheridan

Troy Newman
Member
Troy Newman

I was in a baseball tournament back in college where we went to Lubbock, TX over spring break and we traveled out to NM to play as well. There were drifts of dirt in the road like we get snow around here. I had no idea any place could be that bad. The field in Hobbs, NM looked nice but their trainer warned us to watch out for rattle snakes when we took the tarp of the bull pen mound. It looked like an old Western film as soon as you stepped off their irrigated field with tumble weeds and… Read more »

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

I don’t know when Sheridan made that statement about Texas & Hell, but I would guess it was after battling Comanches on the Llano Estacado (staked plains in the Texas panhandle).

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

That’s a great quote.

MattinLeavenworth
Guest
MattinLeavenworth

Seds, what kind of oilfield work did you do?

sedsinkc
Guest
sedsinkc

Petroleum geologist.

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

You couldn’t pay me to live in New Mexico or West Texas, West Oklahoma, & Western Kansas. Growing up I lived on or near bodies of salt water, east coast & gulf, never heard of drought conditions. Never saw water levels decline. Moved to Kansas as a teenager and lived near Manhattan, creek flooded often, don’t remember drought until my last year in the state, 1995, before moving back. I am west of Salina, and it is feast or famine, very Hot or Cold, very Dry or Wet, very Windy all of the time. I should move further west to… Read more »

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Urbanity, I spent a few years living in Midland, Texas back in the early ’90s, which has to be very close to the location of the “unmentionable” orifice of the USA. The town itself was tolerable due to white collar oilfield money (which is why I was there), but the surrounding country is some of the ugliest there is. Flat as a pancake and no trees except stunted mesquite bushes. And dry, dry, dry. I had the worst sinus infections and/or pneumonia every winter I was there. When the wind was from the east you could smell the tank farm… Read more »

Stl78
Guest
Stl78

Oh terry, how r u buddy?

Terry
Guest
Terry

I’m ok thxs

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

There’s not going to be a Drought okay. Get of this Drought kick.

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

Drought….not necessarily!

Janet
Guest
Janet

This years LRC weather pattern reminds me of the Chiefs. Seems we’re always saying, “Maybe next year”….. 🙂

Lary Gezak
Guest
Lary Gezak

Nope. Not next year. As long as Sutton sticks around… we will not go anywhere. Our offense can only carry us so far.

In terms of Spring — no drought. Lots of storms and rain in the forecast

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

10 day forecast

Supercell
Guest
Supercell

Correct. Bob Sutton = Greg Robinson. The only reason Sutton remains as D coordinator is because Andy Reid’s sin Britt coaches D-line and any other D coordinator who would come in would not keep Britt. Sutton is on staff solely to continue to employ Britt Reid. This is called the Andy Reid gravy train.

Supercell
Guest
Supercell

Son. Sorry about that.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

It is a sin though.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Gary when will you be issuing a spring forecast?

Go K-State!

Pete

Richard
Guest
Richard

Drought

Clint
Guest
Clint

I would be happy if he would just make a forecast for this weekend.

Matt H
Guest
Matt H

I do snow removal in the winter and work outdoors the rest of the year, so I usually watch weather models and 7 day forecasts fairly closely. I’m no meteorologist, so I leave it for the pros. One thing I noticed this year is the constant inaccuracy of predicting precipitation. Whether it’s constant back and forth on model runs, or inconsistency with long range forecasts, things seem to dramatically chance as things approach. Might talk about a 1-3″ snow, and instead of missing snow totals by a few inches, the storm ends up being hundreds of miles away. There are… Read more »

Richard
Guest
Richard

Gary
Heard you briefly you on 810 something about going to to Manhattan on Wednesday to speak at an Agriculture conference.
Are you going to tell then to prepare for a serious drought this summer ?

Also, is tech team going to fix the sign in problem here on blog ? And no refresh.
It all started when blog slowed down due to hits. But, fuxing that created the nuisances of having to sign in every dau and blog not refreshing.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Sorry about all of my typos above 😬

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

Looks like Wednesday should be a nice day in the little apple.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=39.1881&lon=-96.6416

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

1995 Drought – Sounds familiar to this years pattern without the NAO effect (which shows that a neg NAO does not correlate to precip and blocking under certain conditions). “The ongoing drought is one result of a planetary-scale circulation pattern that has influenced the weather over a large part of the Northern Hemisphere. This pattern featured strong upper-level ridges across the Southwest and the high latitudes of the North Atlantic and North Pacific Oceans and strong upper-level troughs over eastern North America and the mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Two important climatic factors appeared to contribute to… Read more »

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones
Troy Newman
Member
Troy Newman

If this pattern has really only produced storms in the very beginning of the cycle we know our chances are limited. I don’t know what to make of all the small scale stuff in the NW flow. Maybe that will bring rain in summer?? It sure isn’t going to do much in winter. I can see a lot of red flag warnings in March when the wind returns like it was in October and the landscape is as dry as it can get. One thing a KS weatherman seldom misses is forecasts for wind.

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

In perception point, this is frustrating for all who want snow, even more so for those who just want moisture. In relative speaking terms it’s the same ole “this sucks” lol. It’s just not there for winter to produce. That being said, weather can change and surprise us all, not being negative but if we really buy into the LRC, there has been enough proof to this point. Perhaps with the right setting, something may come together but not until March. The dynamics of our cold shots choke out moisture, plus the storms not really having any functionality to them… Read more »

Steve
Guest
Steve

Darn arctic show’s up again and helps dry out the atmosphere and there goes the snow.

Bill
Guest
Bill

Can we just move on to spring and forget the rest of winter? I want moisture and warmth pleaseeee. Screw the snow and cold!

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Nothing to see here guys, maybe next winter. I did have a scary thought thinking abut this pattern yesterday. Even though we have some systems in play, and should have fronts in the area, that’s still no guarantee of good rains. I was thinking back to 2011 and 2012, several times we had a system come right through, but it was only a storm of clouds with no rainfall. One time a nice Low came through that looked like hurricane structure with an eye, tracked right over us but completely dry not even a shower connected to it in June.… Read more »

Troy Newman
Member
Troy Newman

Very true. One thing to keep in mind is there is always a drought its just a matter of where it is. To me it looks like it is shifting back into the Southern High Plains like it was from 2010-12. Where you live might make a very big difference. In 2011 we had good rains and tremendous crops here. There was a broad and flat ridge over TX and I was right on the edge which meant we had a lot of disturbances moving across. If you went 60 miles South of here it was much drier and further… Read more »

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

I bet you are in Northern MO, or NE possibly? I remember in 2011 there would be nice rains to our north, but a big Anticyclone in Texas killed everything as it tried to get there. The further sough you went from KC rain dropped off fast, but northern MO had a great year I recall talking to farmers up there getting 3″ rains in July when we didn’t get one that big all year long and it was just dry and hot. Fronts would make it there with big line of storms that would fall apart as it moved… Read more »

Troy Newman
Member
Troy Newman

In KS but 5 miles from the NE state line straight North of Salina. It really was only the Northern tier of counties that had it good and then each county South got worse.

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

Screw the snow, just want it to rain, but if it gets any drier I’ll take just about anything but an ice storm.

Snowflake
Guest
Snowflake

Gary –

Independent of your earlier winter forecast, if you could redo it right now for the remainder – what would you forecast for snowfall for the remainder of our KC winter?

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Hasn’t there been a trend all winter where 10 days out the GFS trends to give us a blizzard, then backs off, then the GFS has the storm go north, then the Euro starts to say we will get snow, then the Euro backs off and we don’t get anything? Seems like the models keep doing this over and over again…. almost like the LRC can predict the model runs because they do the same thing with all our systems – and end up getting it totally wrong until about 2 days out. I think the GFS does have a… Read more »

Miss Jess
Guest
Miss Jess

Light snow showers in south OP, very pretty with the sun peaking out. It would be a lot more fun if it would snow 3+ inches this weekend though!