Six Snowfalls In The Last Month In Kansas City

/Six Snowfalls In The Last Month In Kansas City

Six Snowfalls In The Last Month In Kansas City

Good morning bloggers,

What did I say last night on 41Action News?  I said that Arctic air has retreated north, but it is very, very cold up in Canada and it will blast down a few more times this season between now and early March, and this has to end up helping set the stage for that elusive accumulating snowfall right?   For now, it is a big warming trend heading our way. And, what else did I say? I said that we have had six snowfalls in the past month. Our first accumulation of the season happened on Christmas Eve, and we have now had six accumulations in this past month:

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Six accumulations for a total of 4.9″.  This is actually very good news to the snow removal businesses out there. These small little events, and with a few extra saltings I think we are up to around 9 small little events for these businesses, are very good for many of these landscaping companies around KC that salt and plow.  Now, just look at the last three winters. Last winter we had a total of 4.9″ as well, but for the entire season. The total of the past four winters is now 29.8″ and the number of accumulating snowfalls is around 35. What would fix this average? A couple of 6 to 10 inch snowstorms would definitely raise the average, but we haven’t even had a chance to forecast a 1 to 3 inch snow in years:

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The Arctic air has retreated north way up into Canada. These were the temperatures from 10 PM last night:

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So, will the Arctic air blast south again? Yes, and it should happen within the next two weeks or so. The jet stream is reaching its peak strength during these next two weeks as well. When we go to the other side of that peak jet stream strength, some different results from the pattern may very well start happening.  Jeff Penner is strongly suggesting there will not be a drought this spring over our area. Jeff believes there is just too much activity with troughs digging into and east of the plains for the drought to expand, and instead he thinks it will contract as we move through the next few months. I am not convinced yet, but I would like to do some more analysis before I make any spring and summer conclusions.

The weather pattern continues to cycle in the 44 to 51 day range, and in recent weeks it has been in the 46 to 49 day range most often.  This most recent storm lines up almost perfectly with the late October storm. In tomorrows blog we will look at the October 22nd and January 22nd comparisons, around 92 days apart.  The models are showing a good indication of what will likely happen next, very similar to the patterns from the first two cycles. Let’s just hope that this cycle three version continues to produce.

Thank you for participating and sharing in this weather experience.  Click on the Weather2020 blog here: Weather2020 blog and let’s all learn as we discuss the latest trends on the models and how they do or do not fit the LRC.  This is one of those days that I am in meetings most of the day. I will check in when I have time!  Have a great Wednesday.

Gary

2018-01-26T08:31:21+00:00January 24th, 2018|General|87 Comments

87 Comments

  1. Lary Gezak January 24, 2018 at 8:00 am - Reply

    Feb 1st starting out with a bang? Keep watching this GFS trend…

    • 5th and 6th Grade Science Teacher January 24, 2018 at 7:51 pm - Reply

      Gary,

      I have been following your weather blog for the past three years. I just want to say I have learn so much about the weather and how complicated it is from your blog and your weather forescast on the news. I am a 5th and 6th grade teacher. I get very excited when I teach the weather unit, which I am starting with my 6th graders. I usually use the knowledge I gain from your blogs to get my students just as excited as I am about the weather. Once again, thank you so much for your blogs and sharing your knowledge with the Kansas City community.

  2. LYITC41 January 24, 2018 at 8:02 am - Reply

    I tend to agree w/ Jeff P. the pattern is usually very active here in KC in the spring and early summer months but as I said yesterday there’s no guarantee that it will or wont be active, here’s to hoping it is. No way to ACCURATELY tell this far out, but we need some rain soon and for sure.

  3. Troy Newman January 24, 2018 at 8:03 am - Reply

    I sure hope Jeff is right. It is true that the ridge axis has rarely been overhead and almost always to our West. It is true that we have had active weather just not a lot of accumulation. It seems the ridging in the SW is returning and so is the cold from here on East. I would imagine the further SW you are the more likely drought would be under this scenario? I can recall quite a few years like when things looked good up here but we would go to Salina for something and everything was burned up when we headed south.

  4. f00dl3 January 24, 2018 at 8:17 am - Reply

    There was a comment yesterday about how the LRC can be off on snowfall by 20″. Gary responded that the LRC predicted the 4th year straight of snow drought. That is totally a farse.

    Gary predicted above average snowfall this winter with 21″.

    Yes, I believe the LRC does exist. The problem is that the seasonal differences and surface features mean that whatever happens 30,000 feet above us doesn’t really make a damn difference.

    • JoeK January 24, 2018 at 8:40 am - Reply

      Foodl3,

      I have read Gary’s statement multiple times, I cannot find where he said ” the LRC predicted a snow drought” Gary stated that we are in a 4 year snow drought. Using the LRC, he predicted a dry winter. Using the LRC, he predicted 21 inches based on the 17 day stretch of activity in the first cycle. Winter isn’t over and we still have multiple chances to gain in our snow totals however, predicting a seasonal total of snow does not make or break the accuracy of the LRC.

      • Brian watson January 24, 2018 at 3:53 pm - Reply

        Snowfall doesn’t make or break the cyvle theory. The fact that he’s what 10-20 years into this thing and most of his seasonal forecasts bust is what breaks it. Again he’s good at making predictions a few days in advance, but the cycle premise is that he can make long term forecasts based on this lrc which unless you’re wearing your very own Gary Lezak sunglasses is complete false. By the way these sunglasses are being sold right now for 19.99 and if you buy now you get a second pair free. Is there something to this cycle theory? I don’t know for sure, but I lean towards no. Is it useful in everyday forecasting? 95 percent. No

        • JoeK January 24, 2018 at 5:06 pm - Reply

          Brian,

          I addressed this the other day. You still haven’t commented on the cycles lining up and the fact that many of us have used them to predict the recent storms a month in advance so please, explain to me how this isn’t considered long term? You can result to high school antics i.e., “Gary Lezak sunglasses”, I will not. I am simply interested in debating the weather based solely on facts and evidence, this thing called science. Throwing jabs, making silly comments is commonly done by those who are defending a purely subjective opinion rather than applying scientific objectivity. The simple truth is this, no matter how many people post nonsense that the LRC has no merit, it will not change the fact that it does and has been demonstrated. Again, I used the LRC to predict the most recent storms a month in advance. The evidence is in this blog should you want to take the time to research it. How can you argue with the facts? If you refuse to spend some time researching what you are saying, I am wasting my time so by all means, have your opinion.

          • Brian watson January 24, 2018 at 5:40 pm - Reply

            You say you believe in facts. How about results? Almost every year the snowfall prediction is way off. Most springs the precipitation expectation is way off. What are we giving credit to? Because a storm system comes through every week and one of them gives us a dusting and a little rain occasionally? I want to see a posting for 6 random days between late February and mid march and see just 3 of them both come close and noon temperature and precipitation. You and he can’t do it. Leave the post up every day with no adjusting as the time comes closer. That hurricane he predicted won’t happen within 2 weeks of when he said it will. They almost never are. The facts quite simply show that this is truly a waste of time. Hopefully he will go back to what he is good at

    • Three7s January 24, 2018 at 8:46 am - Reply

      No offense to Gary, but the LRC is completely useless in the winter months. What good is knowing a storm will be “in the area” if you can’t tell what it will do? It’s pretty obvious that this is the case. Sure, in the spring and summer months, the LRC is great, but it really doesn’t do much for us in the winter.

      • JoeK January 24, 2018 at 9:37 am - Reply

        Three7s,

        I can certainly understand why you would think that however, that isn’t necessarily true. Think about this, 20, 30 or even 40 years ago, we wouldn’t know whether or not a storm was possible until days before. With the LRC, we now know the most likely days for storm systems. I gave examples on yesterdays blog. In November, I identified the Christmas weekend system and the one that followed it. You can go back into the blogs to verify. If the LRC is useless during the winter, how was I able to do that? Now, I wasn’t able to predict precise amounts, but the systems were there and they did produce. I will agree that winter presents many more challenges for the LRC in terms of forecasting, but also believe our ability to interpret the data will continue to evolve.

    • Mandy January 25, 2018 at 9:07 am - Reply

      This article is from 2012, but I think it’s still relevant today:

      http://fox6now.com/2012/01/04/why-the-lrc-doesnt-make-sense-to-winter-forecasting/

      • Gary January 25, 2018 at 9:21 am - Reply

        This article is again from a very naive point of view in response to Jeremy Nelson’s incredibly accurate forecasts in Wisconsin using the LRC. The naive and not open minded person will resist this new technology.

        Gary

  5. NoBeachHere January 24, 2018 at 9:30 am - Reply

    Three7’s,
    Not useless, I would call It explorative fun.
    Think about it, if you were to totally separate your frustrations from the last few winters and any other preconceptions about KC area winters, you could approach every new LRC with an open mind of all possibilities, including ones you don’t like. I think most will agree that if we have received only a small amount of snow at this point every winter and watching storm after storm miss and/or strengthen off to our east, yea, we would call any winter snowfall forecast a bust, possibly. That being said, let’s say we get 3 storms in a row that being 21”, then the forecast was right. Let’s say those 3 storms only bring us 3”, well then the forecast for 21” is a bust BUT the forecast for the storms was correct, so let’s say a 50/50 win/loss, wrong on amount but right on storms. In an explorative education of each new LRC, you can be right and wrong at the same time. Ask questions and question the question and answers.

    MMike, thank you sir and great info. That was the goal until my greatest gift in the world needed a different kind of attention, so I scaled way back to be there for my kid.

    • Three7s January 24, 2018 at 9:39 am - Reply

      Sure, the 21 inches could verify with a back-loaded winter. I’ve just seen too many storms come through where there is just far too much uncertainty as to what it will do right up to the event.. That’s where my issues with the LRC have always been, especially during winter.

      • NoBeachHere January 24, 2018 at 10:05 am - Reply

        I agree with that.
        Being that is really when the LRC is dissected and it also happens to come at time with the holidays, seasons changing, possible lack of outdoor activities, stuck inside because it’s cold and might as well snow.
        Heady thinks it starts earlier than Gary, maybe what Heady see’s is the evolution of the harmonics and Gary see’s the beginnings of the new pattern evolving. Both of which are players. What I see are both are right but the uncertainty of the unknowns add a huge learning curve each year. An example is the western ridge that began its expansion before the new LRC was supposed to begin. In C1 it dominated and continued until about 2 weeks ago. I think Gary, possibly, did not see that being the storm killer. Now that it is weakened, what will come? Also, where would our snowfall totals be if that ridge weakened in early Nov?
        I do see your point but only on precip amounts but to counter, how many storms in the past have we seen that initially looked good up till about a day or shorter out and we got dry slotted? Perhaps, the storm didn’t get going till east of here. The storms are there but the amounts are not, I get that.
        Maybe Gary and the rest of the crew can just say, it’s going to snow from now on and just remove the forecast amount, keep the 1st inch of snow contest and let the chips fall where they may. It’s supposed to be informative and fun for us as well as Q & A .

  6. LYITC41 January 24, 2018 at 9:37 am - Reply

    I agree w/ 2 previous comments-there is a cycle (mets have actually known about it for a long time, long before GL came along) and you can generally tell what the wx might do regionally but for any one locale you cannot ACCURATELY forecast the wx more than 3-5 days days out, no matter what cycling pattern, model etc. you’re using. Just a fact.

    • JoeK January 24, 2018 at 9:44 am - Reply

      ” Mets have actually known about the cycling weather pattern long before the LRC”? Who, please provide sources as I research the weather extensively and never uncovered any other concrete theories predating the LRC.

      • KS Jones January 24, 2018 at 10:42 pm - Reply

        Probably just folklore, like the myth that a major storm comes 90 days after a heavy fog. That one has been around for several generations.

  7. REAL HUMEDUDE January 24, 2018 at 9:43 am - Reply

    People were discussing megadroughts yesterday, and mentioned there have been periods of hundreds of years of abnormally dry conditions. Sure there had to be some rains in that period but generally speaking very co editions that lasted for decades on end. Made me wonder, could mankind survive such an event? The entire planet might not suffer from the same dry conditions but imagine if it did. A ten year global drought might be enough to take Civilization to the brink of collapse of not complete collapse. We already know the stores only have enough food for 3 days, and we have VERY limited capacity to store large quantities of food. The oceans have already been depleted by 50%, we couldn’t depend on it to sustain 6 billion people. Leaves us with little other logical outcomes other than a global mass extinction, or at least mass extinction on whatever continents are most severely affected. Comforting, huh?
    I’m planning on building a good sized lake somewhere on the farm in addition to my strip pit to try to contend with any prolonged drought period, but you can only do so much. How long before next megadrought?

    • numb3rsguy January 24, 2018 at 3:24 pm - Reply

      I’m pretty interested in global climate change (drought, hot, cold, floods, whatever it may be). I’d love to discuss it more, but I don’t think that this blog is the appropriate place to do so because instead of scientific discussions they typically become polarized and political.

  8. DanT January 24, 2018 at 9:51 am - Reply

    There is evidence of the LRC cycling, however what is challenging is seasonal differences. February will be interesting to watch as we move back into the November part of the cycle. November was fairly warm with very little rainfall in Kansas City. The storm systems that did move through were not functional until they got over the Ohio Valley and Southeastern States. Will this change? Probably not with this part of the pattern. And then what about the areas west and south west of KC? The trend on the models still shows little or no rain as the drought will continue to intensify out there.

  9. Dan T January 24, 2018 at 9:52 am - Reply

    There is evidence of the LRC cycling, however what is challenging is seasonal differences. February will be interesting to watch as move back into the November part of the cycle. November was fairly warm with very little rainfall in Kansas City. The storm systems that did move through were not functional until they got over the Ohio Valley and Southeastern States. Will this change? Probably not with this part of the pattern. And then what about the areas west and south west of KC? The trend on the models still shows little or no rain as the drought will continue to intensify out there.

    • ChaoticAtmosphereGuy January 24, 2018 at 10:18 am - Reply

      If these ‘seasonal’ differences can turn a big wet storm dry and warm or, alternatively, convert a small dry wave in the flow from the fall into a huge blizzard in the winter, then how is the LRC at all useful?

      • NoBeachHere January 24, 2018 at 12:07 pm - Reply

        That there will be a storm in the area

  10. Stl78 January 24, 2018 at 9:58 am - Reply

    I think feb will b above avg on moisture and below avg on temps. Goin out with a bang! Terry, hold on😉

  11. Stl78 January 24, 2018 at 10:00 am - Reply

    Yo GARY, they still workin on website? Thx!!

  12. Nick January 24, 2018 at 10:16 am - Reply

    Basically as long as your not directly under a long term ridge or trough, but are in between them there is a better chance that different seasons could have different results, and it seems we are in the middle again, so I will still wait and see what will happen in the end, I’m I concerned that it could get dry this spring/summer? sure, but I think there is still hope that things will turn abit like last year, just hopefully St. Joe wont be in the rain shadow this time around.

  13. ChaoticAtmosphereGuy January 24, 2018 at 10:17 am - Reply

    I posted on the same topic as many yesterday.

    The fact that there’s little to no correlation between a dry winter and then a dry summer makes me skeptical of the LRC.

    If the pattern sets up in October and cycles through winter into the spring and summer, then the trends of winter should foretell at least something about spring/summer. I get that storms can be different — some weaker, some stronger, per his theory, but overall, over long terms of years and decades, if this theory held true, then a dry winter should portend a higher-than-average likelihood of a drought-ridden summer.

    But this simply isn’t borne out in the numbers.

    • NoBeachHere January 24, 2018 at 12:15 pm - Reply

      You correct that it’s just not numbers. Those numbers can give you factual info about previous years, not for the future. A downfall conception about the LRC is seen many ways.
      1. Relative to where you are
      2. Where did it actually precip at
      3. When did it start
      4. How much precip
      5. Why lol

      If we look at the basics, the LRC provides enough info that when there will be Be storm systems of any size in our area. Overall on how much precip is still a work in progress, especially for winter.

  14. Nick January 24, 2018 at 10:17 am - Reply

    *Am I concerned…

  15. Nick January 24, 2018 at 10:24 am - Reply

    IMO that is because there are patterns where the jet stream set up will produce dry weather in the colder season( even drier than avg.) but then will produce wetter weather in the warmer seasons, if it were that straight foreward, the LRC would have been discovered years ago. Its a pattern that is cycling in the jet stream, now some will say that it makes the LRC useless when trying to forecast different seasons, but I say that it is not, because if you can get a good handle on how the jet will look going forward you should be able to forecast the different results that will happen when the seasons shift, but that really means that you have to have a real good handle on exactly how it will play out.

    • ChaoticAtmosphereGuy January 24, 2018 at 10:30 am - Reply

      Then why, after a purported 20 or 30 years of using his theory, was Gary not able to spot this “different patterns in the jet stream” last spring?

      Last spring, we were coming off of a record-dry winter and Gary called for a bad drought for the summer. This was a call that must have had substantial impacts on his agriculture clients that he speaks of on this blog…yet 2017 ended up being a record growing season ; we got an abundance of moisture (well above average) and never saw prolonged heat waves…it was a spectacular summer, by most accounts.

      If the LRC held any water (get it?), this would have been at least somewhat foreseeable.

      • NoBeachHere January 24, 2018 at 12:20 pm - Reply

        I believe Gary admitted that was a complete miss. That being said, it would be nice to do a complete review as to why it turned that way it did for the immediate KC area. While areas not far from here actually did not do so well on precip.

      • f00dl3 January 24, 2018 at 12:48 pm - Reply

        Funny how that premium service for his agriculture clients is no longer offered. Wonder if he had to refund them all when they paid the ungodly amount of like $1000 it cost because his drought prediction did not pan out and was totally off?

        • Richard January 24, 2018 at 2:03 pm - Reply

          He refunded it with book sales from its a sunny life 😊
          Just teasing.
          Why would he have to refund any of it ? They paid for the service of forecasting. Some of it was wrong but a lot of it right. Agriculture is year-round. Not just spring/summer.

        • Troy Newman January 24, 2018 at 5:53 pm - Reply

          I paid a fee. It wasn’t $1000 I did not get refunded and am not asking for one. I did get a drought too (well 5 inches below normal). The reason you didn’t get a drought was that you didn’t pay for the service!

          • RobertCali January 24, 2018 at 8:19 pm - Reply

            Well, in that case, I’m glad I didn’t pay … I got ample rainfall, cool temps, and a spectacular growing season.

            Pays to not pay I guess.

  16. Anonymous January 24, 2018 at 10:30 am - Reply

    A big ol YAWN

  17. Rod January 24, 2018 at 10:44 am - Reply

    I like the trends on the GFS yesterday & today on snow for central MO around Feb 1-2. At least we’re only 8 days away & not 10. Hope trend continues.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE January 24, 2018 at 11:07 am - Reply

      We were supposed to get a big storm THIS weekend, forecasted last week, rememeber? That storm is just as bogus as the rest of them, no need to even discuss them until we are Alot closer. I sound like Heatmizer….

      • Three7s January 24, 2018 at 11:27 am - Reply

        Agreed, get me to Monday with the models consistently showing snow, then we’ll talk.

  18. Faithful Woodsman January 24, 2018 at 11:00 am - Reply

    I rarely comment, but thought I would share my experiences in light of recent posts. I have been following Gary and the LRC for five years now since my dad moved out to KC. The past two years I have tracked the LRC locally where I live in central Ohio. The two biggest takeaways I have found are these: 1) Gary’s overall winter forecast for the “big picture” has been dead nuts on since I have followed him. 2) The cycling gets less and less accurate to dates and systems as it progresses throughout the year. Again, this is what I have found tracking the LRC locally in the Ohio valley region. Our pattern has cycled this way so far this season: 12-14 days of above average warmth/average precip – then the bottom drops out with the ridge that came Oct 25 and then again Dec 7 and we get 12-14 days of well below average temps/above average precip – the last portion of our cycle has been 21 days of modulation between temperature extremes (several swings above average and several swings below average) with very few days in the average zone/above average precip. Then it starts all over. The hiccups began in the last section of the last (2nd) cycle. During the 21 period of up and down the AO dropped big time and for the last two weeks of the cycle we had record cold, well below even the low swings expected and nonstop. The warm up came on time when the 3rd cycle began, but the second hiccup has occurred and it’s big one. That ridge that formed on Oct 25 and on Dec 7 should be here today or within the next couple days bringing a huge drop of Canadian air and more precip. It’s no where to be found. A couple average cold days in the 15 day forecast and the rest is well above average. Precip is forecast to be above average, which does match previous cycles. I don’t know if the AO drop moved some of the parameters of the cycling, but this is what seems to happen. Puzzle pieces (as Gary describes them) tend to change some of the patterning/cycling or remove certain parts altogether. The cycle still exists, but not with the exact same storms, ridges, low/high pressure systems or dates. However, the same overall cycle still exists or Gary’s overall forecast for my area – colder and snowier, which has been our winter exactly and what I expect to return after our brief unexpected warm up. This is what I have found to be true studying this very closely the past several years (mostly during winter/spring). The overall trend is very accurate, but the specifics get fuzzier and fuzzier as the year progresses.

  19. Richard January 24, 2018 at 11:19 am - Reply

    Drought ! Hot ! Wet ! Cool !
    Who knows what summer will bring.
    Last spring/ summer proved we just don’t know yet based on what this winter has done.
    I thought we were in for a drought. So did Gary and others.
    Storms that missed us last winter decided to visit us in spring-summer. It was nice. Very nice.

    Ugh. Still having to sign in here.

  20. Roger January 24, 2018 at 12:43 pm - Reply

    Here is an index I found from the Midwest Regional Climate Center. The Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index measures the intensity of Winter. It takes into account the amount of snowfall, days of snow on the ground, and persistence of cold weather. Based on climatology, most of Kansas is considered to be only in a Moderate type of winter. Or about the 40th percentile. Places south and east of here are in a Severe to Extreme winter. Of course most of the Southwest U.S. is in a Mild category. At this point, the ASSCI index does not take into account wind chill and mixed precipitation. http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/research/awssi/indexAwssi.jsp

  21. f00dl3 January 24, 2018 at 12:49 pm - Reply

    Yeah – what happened to that Jan 27/28 storm? When our weekend half-inch blizzard happened everyone was like “but we could have a big snow on the 27/28, fits the LRC”

    • Fred January 24, 2018 at 1:01 pm - Reply

      That storm ended up north.

      Or maybe south.

      East?

      West?

      It went somewhere…oh, I know! It’s now showing up again in 10 days. That’s where it went. It just delayed its arrival to ten days from now!

    • Gary January 24, 2018 at 1:03 pm - Reply

      That storm is showing up right on schedule. It is the Halloween system, that part of the pattern cycling through and due in between around the 28th and February 2nd. It is there, right on schedule, now what will it do? The latest GFS has a nice snowstorm here, and the Euro has it southeast of KC.

      And, wow, some good discussion on here. Thank you for the comment from Ohio. I am so busy today, so I don’t have the time to adequately answer everyones questions and comments, but I will try later. On the note of how did we not put our finger on last years flip to wet in KC, I just have to say a couple of things. #1: We are going to be wrong sometimes, and #2: It was dry over most of this region, just not right near KC

      Gary

      Gary

      • TDogg January 24, 2018 at 2:41 pm - Reply

        So if the upcoming storm is right on schedule and cycling with the LRC, give us your forecast based on what you have learned about the cycles in the new LRC.
        This is what gets the naysayers. You say it is right on track with another cycle that happened yet no forecast. What will happen ten days from now in your opinion according to the LRC? Are you waiting for the models to back up your theory?
        Not trying to be negative here or bash on Gary.
        Let the bashing on me begin…

        • Ben January 24, 2018 at 2:54 pm - Reply

          He just did. He literally just gave you his forecast. You replied to it. I’m not sure what you’re wanting. Do you require the LRC to tell you the exact latitude and longitude of a storm’s center 47 days out?

        • ChaoticAtmosphereGuy January 24, 2018 at 3:31 pm - Reply

          This is the crux of it. “It fits!” yet “Let’s wait for some more model runs before giving anything concrete.”

          This theory is smoke and mirrors. I’ll give it to him — he’s done it beautifully over the years, but if you read closely, you’ll see every so-called long-range forecast leaves just enough wiggle room that it will ALWAYS verify, regardless of results.

          That isn’t forecasting. That’s snake oil.

          • Brian watson January 24, 2018 at 6:29 pm - Reply

            Amen

        • Stl78 January 24, 2018 at 4:08 pm - Reply

          Tdogg, no bashing here. That is a legitimate wx question that warrants an answer. Ty

        • JoeK January 24, 2018 at 5:13 pm - Reply

          TDogg,

          No bashing deserved, you are asking fair questions and doing so in a manner that represents the want and willingness to learn and be objective. That, is the cornerstone of productive debate my friend.

          • Heat Mizer January 24, 2018 at 7:27 pm - Reply

            No, he comes on here all the time just to troll..unhappy people do that ya know.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE January 24, 2018 at 2:49 pm - Reply

      That storm completely disappeared, a literal poof. Never know which one will pan out, I had hopes for a wetter storm with maybe an inch or 2 or rain at some point this winter. Central MO got that rain last storm, maybe we can get them to trend further west in time

  22. Dan T January 24, 2018 at 1:17 pm - Reply

    Looking at the storm that was supposed to occur this weekend, it’s there on Friday night. Guess what? Looks to do exactly what it did in cycle 1, give KC little to no measurable precipitation.

    • Roger January 24, 2018 at 2:54 pm - Reply

      This whole winter has been a hoax. I know nothing much was anticipated and yes we have had cold. But the limited to no snow regime perfectly fits my location and many others surrounding me. In the middle of nowhere, with NOTHING (as far as producing a decent snow) to show for it.

  23. Anonymous January 24, 2018 at 2:09 pm - Reply

    In Gary We Trust! Thanks for the info Gary! 17 inches of snow up here in nebraska Monday, 50 mph winds. Quite the storm. Had 5 inches my place.

    Keep Up The Good Work!

    GO SOONERS!! Trae Wooden! rock smacked the gawks.

    • Heat Mizer January 24, 2018 at 7:26 pm - Reply

      I thought KU won that game.

      • Richard January 25, 2018 at 9:55 am - Reply

        Sooners won it

  24. Tdogg January 24, 2018 at 2:48 pm - Reply

    I know two children who would love a snow play day!

    • Heat Mizer January 24, 2018 at 7:26 pm - Reply

      You and who else?

  25. numb3rsguy January 24, 2018 at 3:37 pm - Reply

    I’d like to give Gary some credit here. As a snow lover, of course I would have liked Gary’s 21″ forecast to pan out (I know winter isn’t over yet and it still might). But the fact that Gary said it would be dry and colder than normal has been realized. He also predicted which regions would be warmer or colder than normal with extreme accuracy. Although he may have been off so far on the exact amounts of snow, the fact that Gary knows when a storm will be tracking across the Midwest 100 days in advance is amazing. I could say “there will be a storm in the Midwest on July 14th this year”, and maybe there wouldn’t be a storm in the area for days before or after. Gary has been accurate on every storm system’s appearance in the area this LRC so far, it’s just that unfortunately it hasn’t panned out for us in terms of large amounts of precip. And for the snowfall accuracy, does anyone think they can predict how much rain will fall between April and August within a few tenths of an inch? Because that is what people are expecting of Gary to predict the amount of snow between November and March to within a few inches. Anyone who has experience with fluid dynamics knows how monstrously complex the atmosphere is. Knowing when storms will be in the area is like knowing what the powerball number is going to be in 100 days. People on here are expecting him to predict every single number so they hit the jackpot. Not gonna happen.

    • ChaoticAtmosphereGuy January 24, 2018 at 3:51 pm - Reply

      If snowfall forecasting is so tough, and he should be given a pass because of its complexity, maybe he should admit the precision isn’t there to justify forecasting a season-long total.

      • Richard January 24, 2018 at 5:32 pm - Reply

        Chaotic
        He does it becayse the masses expect it. Every met gives predictions of snowfall totals.
        Every met.
        Gary would rather wait until mid-late Dec when they have a good handle on the new LRC.
        But stations and the viewers want that prediction before its even winter yet.
        He said dry. It has been. He said cold. It has been.
        Snowfall totals should be scrubbed, because even the best of the best are often wrong.

        Give’em a break !

        • Richard January 24, 2018 at 5:44 pm - Reply

          To clarify what I said
          Predicting Snowfall totals as early as Nov or early Dec should be scrubbed.
          Or not given at all. But the viewing public wants it. The station heads want it.
          So mets give it. Then they get pounded if totals end up way below or above what they predicted.
          It’s a PREDICTION.
          The LRC is not ever going to tell how much total snow. I don’t think ?

          • f00dl3 January 24, 2018 at 8:36 pm - Reply

            But in the same respect, that’s how Gary markets it. The winter forecast is really his marketing tool for the LRC.

        • JoeK January 24, 2018 at 5:47 pm - Reply

          Richard,

          Bravo! 😀

    • ChaoticAtmosphereGuy January 24, 2018 at 3:53 pm - Reply

      And to your end that it is amazing because he can say a storm system will be nearby around July 14 — well anyone can do that. His definition of “storm” is so broad, and the 44-51-day wiggle room so expansive that it will always fit.

      Hold me to it: I guarantee that I can show you a map that will show a storm system in the middle section of the country around July 14, give or take a few days. Mark it down.

      • JoeK January 24, 2018 at 5:21 pm - Reply

        Chaotic,

        So you are saying, we will always have a storm system in the middle of the country on or around July 14th? Every year? Careful making outlandish statements as I am betting based on historical data, that is far from fact. Might want to go back and read discussion about hurricanes in the Gulf. Same thing was said and guess what, 3 years with ZERO hurricanes in the Gulf. Can we stick to facts rather than opinion?

        And to back what I am saying, I will try and make time to look at historical data that I am confident will show we have had as many July 14th’s where no storms were present in our region

        • RobertCali January 24, 2018 at 8:27 pm - Reply

          That’s exactly what I’m saying.

          Show me surface maps for July 10-18th of any given year (remember: his theory gives 7 days wiggle room – a 44-51-day cycle), and I’ll show you a storm system somewhere in the middle of the country.

          Guaranteed.

      • Troy Newman January 24, 2018 at 6:54 pm - Reply

        I think he can do that but one big issue is that while the pattern sticks to its cycle the jet stream does not. By summer the jet is so far North we have almost zero chance of any of these storms tracking across the area. Weak fronts, nearly invisible weak waves and outflow boundaries are what cause rain then. Much of it is found along the edge of the anti-cyclone which moves around through the course of the summer. What I see in the LRC is it sets up the upper air pattern. It also gives you the timing of the changes in that pattern as well as timing any storm systems. I think the other things forecasters look at like the MJO, AO, Nino’s etc also also impact how the LRC will react. It will keep cycling but the outcomes will change. So yes I believe Gary has discovered something unique and amazing. But I do not believe that you can predict things like how much it will snow in a season or whether a storm will hit your location or miss by 100 miles.

  26. Kurt January 24, 2018 at 4:25 pm - Reply

    My question is if there is a system that shows up in the Jan 28th – Feb 2 timeframe per the LRC and it was showing on the GFS model for days, is it still there? It appears to have been lost in the latest model run or is it just too weak to produce any precipitation based on this model run? Just curious as it was another one that was hoped to get to the 21 inches of snow and now it appears to have really gone at least for now.

    Just seems like the models do lots of flip flopping except when the get ahold of a decent storm like the last one that left the area in the warm sector and dry slotted parts of the area.

    • Gary January 24, 2018 at 4:59 pm - Reply

      It is there on the latest model run, but it has NOTHING in KC…..again. The system is there. Here is one of the problems bloggers. We are experiencing our fourth winter in a row where NOT ONE storm has come together. Is the pattern there? Yes! Is the storm there and similar to other cycles? Yes! Could we end up with “not much” again? Yes! Could something different happen? Yes! Can we forecast these differences weeks to months in advance? Yes! Will we always be right? No. So, we will be wrong sometimes? Yes! The pattern is cycling regularly. I am planning on having a video blog tomorrow and you will be able to see where we are in this cycling pattern, around 47-days in length. We will look into the cycling pattern Thursday. I wish I could make these storms come together. I still have some hope for enough seasonal differences to help one or two storms to come together, but will I be shocked if it doesn’t? No! We do have hope. Hope is important. The LRC sometimes limits our hope and we are now deep into this pattern with only 4.9″ of snow in six different accumulations. Sad!

      There has always been a perception problem with the LRC for some. When Kansas City does not get any major winter storm for, now, 4 years in a row, it will seem like we are getting forecasts wrong. If you have been monitoring closely, then you may know that we have gotten each of these very small snow events accurately forecasted. I know that I have yet to predict any major storm systems. Oh, we have looked into some of the models that have shown a few big snows ten days out, but I would only say whether the system fit the LRC or not. And, when I would say it fit, guess what, it would then hit, just in about the weakest possible way each time, which is also a sign that this pattern is so consistent. This is how we have had the six very small snows thus far.

      I wish I could help make this pattern better, but it is just not a good pattern. But, again, there is hope, especially when the Arctic air returns next month. I hope this makes sense. Have a great evening.

      Gary

  27. Kurt January 24, 2018 at 5:11 pm - Reply

    Thank you Gary, it just gets frustrating but hope that this snow drought doesn’t equate to a rainfall drought in spring and summer. No more dry weather in the growing season please and thank you again!

  28. Brian watson January 24, 2018 at 6:40 pm - Reply

    One. Every station has called for very little snow and they aren’t using the lrc. 2 you wait until a few days out before forecasting snow totals and say that it was known all along. One of the guys said earlier it’s only for us that everyone puts out a snowfall forecast. Well those rare times when you are close on the snowfall total you sure tout it like it was part of the lrc that made you make such a great prediction. Yet no one can say anything when you’re 20 inches off on your prediction, because it’ll be said that we knew everything it’s just impossible to pick snow totals. Listen to a defense lawyer talk and you’ll see just how anyone can make anything look like something else if they word it in a certain way. Let’s play a game where Gary or anyone using the lrc makes a temp prediction and precip forecast 3 weeks in advance or further on any certain day. Guarantee he won’t bat 50 percent. I further say that I can blindly not paying attention to any models or lrc can put out an almost as accurate forecast on days months in advance.

    • Troy Newman January 24, 2018 at 7:00 pm - Reply

      If we really are using the LRC should we not be expecting what happened on Halloween to occur again? If I use it alone I would predict a piddly storm moving in from NE and tracking toward KC that gives most areas about 1″ of snow. That is what happened then but it was warm enough many areas did not accumulate much but with the season change we should get an inch.

    • Richard January 24, 2018 at 7:06 pm - Reply

      To each his own.
      But you made no sense with that entire post.

      ” 2 you wait until a few days out before forecasting snow totals and say that it was known all along.”

      Huh ?
      Every met waits until a few days out from a storm before forecasting totals. Every met.

      • Richard January 24, 2018 at 7:08 pm - Reply

        *My above comment was directed at Brian Watson

      • Brian watson January 24, 2018 at 7:38 pm - Reply

        He is saying the lrc predicted the totals for the storm like he knew it all along. I know every meteorologist adjusts his snowfall totals or waits until late in the game to make his forecast. It’s not that hard to understand. He’s saying he knows it will only be .5 to 2 inches because of the lrc and that was what part of the statement was based on.

  29. Bobbie January 24, 2018 at 7:12 pm - Reply

    Seven days of wiggler room now?? It’s like the 3 degree warrenty….yeah 3 degrees either way of your predicted temp.

    • Heat Mizer January 24, 2018 at 7:23 pm - Reply

      That’s right..its really a seven degree warranty…seven degree range, i.e…you pick 5 degrees….so 2, 3, 4, 5 ,6, 7, 8 degrees and you fall within the warranty.

  30. Anonymous January 24, 2018 at 8:20 pm - Reply

    Our biggest snow this winter will come in March.

  31. f00dl3 January 24, 2018 at 9:15 pm - Reply

    So here is how I see it.

    The LRC predicts the upper level pattern. As I stated this morning upper level pattern doesn’t really mean anything to what we get here on the surface. What happens 30,000 ft up doesn’t matter. Really.

    We know that storms will be passing through on X date. We know where ridges and highs will be. The LRC states that. It’s great to know that. But the problem is seasonal variances. Why do the seasonal variances exist and what drives them?

    I know in the past I have proposed my FRMC / my moisture pattern theory. I know Gary has put out the EPBI a few years back ago. I think it comes down to temperatures vs dewpoints.

    At the 100 millibar level there is very little moisture in the atmosphere. Relative humidity is always 2% or less. At the surface we have moisture coming and going, dams up, pools off, drys up, surges in, gets pushed out by air mass changes, drylines, etc. The LRC is based off the atmosphere about half way up. The problem with this is naturally flawed, because yes it does see the thermal changes driving wind shifts in the upper atmosphere, but it fails to see the moisture driving precipitation in the lower atmosphere. Winds are the product of temperature, not dewpoint. Temperature can be an enabler of dewpoint but dewpoint can also be an enabler of temperature. Take for instance your warm winter night where the low doesn’t drop below 40. Majority of that time that happens because dewpoints are in the 40s. The LRC is blind to that unfortunately, because the LRC uses what happens at the 500 millibar level.

    Late summer and early fall is probably the most useful time to see the LRC in action – why we identify in October (or earlier?) – because as what we interpret as the jet stream pushing south is more or less the upper atmosphere mixing into the lower atmosphere in a pattern (the LRC). As fall turns into winter the jet stream is at it’s strongest. The upper levels are mixing most effectively. When the sunlight starts to increase, the jet stream is retreating and moisture starts to fill in the void left by the lower mixing ratio. Moisture stablizes the lower levels but increases the temperature contrast in upper levels.

    The flaw to the LRC in this is that while the LRC may look one way in October, as moisture is shunted out and replaced by dry air mixing in and thus lower potential temperatures during the winter, storms pass by as non-functional. Those same storms as moisture starts to increase if the Arctic air is not as strong in February can dump 6-10″ on Kansas City. And yes, that could easily happen this winter.

    It’s hard to drop below -10F twice in one winter – I would almost say there is a 95% certainty that the next Arctic blast won’t be nearly as strong as the day after Christmas. And when the Arctic air is not as strong, that moves the storm track further north. Which means we could get a slightly colder version of what they’ve been seeing over the deep south the past month to month and a half come February with a few good, functional snow storms. With the storms in this LRC, and if we do have a weaker blow of Arctic air, and moisture return, we could easily hit or even exceed that 21″ of snowfall this winter. I seriously can see that panning out.

    BUT – and here’s the big BUT – while the deep south has been having a very active winter weather season this year with several snowstorms… they are running very behind on precipitation. That means as the airsource from the Gulf of Mexico does try to turn on it may not be any better if worse. There is only one small area in Tennessee that has seen average to 110% normal precip — https://water.weather.gov/precip/index.php?analysis_date=1516752000&lat=34.8700000000&location_name=CONUS_+_Puerto_Rico&location_type=us&lon=-94.6300000000&precip_layer=0.75&product=percent&recent_type=today&rfc_layer=-1&state_layer=-1&hsa_layer=-1&county_layer=-1&time_frame=last90days&time_type=recent&units=eng&zoom=4&domain=current

    What we need to find out is what drives moisture at the lower levels. If we can figure this out, I think that is the piece of the LRC puzzle that will make everything make sense. But here’s the kicker to that idea – the AO and NAO may be great for seeing how deep storms can get when the jet stream is at it’s peak depending on other variables, but the ENSO and SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico and Eastern Pacific may be more important at predicting what happens February onwards, because after all the moisture return is what the sunlight allows to drive the surface features that override the LRC because polar originating air masses have much less influence as the jet stream retreats other than providing a trigger.

    • Rod January 25, 2018 at 9:54 am - Reply

      Great analysis foodl3. I think Gary should incorporate your post into a blog, there is a lot to dissect from it but you have some very good points. Thanks for the great explanation!!

  32. Dave in LS January 24, 2018 at 10:54 pm - Reply

    Great post, definitely a lot to think about. Also agree that the LRC predicts pretty accurately about when we see storms, and not what that storm will do. Again great take on the LRC

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