Good morning bloggers,
What did I say last night on 41Action News? I said that Arctic air has retreated north, but it is very, very cold up in Canada and it will blast down a few more times this season between now and early March, and this has to end up helping set the stage for that elusive accumulating snowfall right? For now, it is a big warming trend heading our way. And, what else did I say? I said that we have had six snowfalls in the past month. Our first accumulation of the season happened on Christmas Eve, and we have now had six accumulations in this past month:
Six accumulations for a total of 4.9″. This is actually very good news to the snow removal businesses out there. These small little events, and with a few extra saltings I think we are up to around 9 small little events for these businesses, are very good for many of these landscaping companies around KC that salt and plow. Now, just look at the last three winters. Last winter we had a total of 4.9″ as well, but for the entire season. The total of the past four winters is now 29.8″ and the number of accumulating snowfalls is around 35. What would fix this average? A couple of 6 to 10 inch snowstorms would definitely raise the average, but we haven’t even had a chance to forecast a 1 to 3 inch snow in years:
The Arctic air has retreated north way up into Canada. These were the temperatures from 10 PM last night:
So, will the Arctic air blast south again? Yes, and it should happen within the next two weeks or so. The jet stream is reaching its peak strength during these next two weeks as well. When we go to the other side of that peak jet stream strength, some different results from the pattern may very well start happening. Jeff Penner is strongly suggesting there will not be a drought this spring over our area. Jeff believes there is just too much activity with troughs digging into and east of the plains for the drought to expand, and instead he thinks it will contract as we move through the next few months. I am not convinced yet, but I would like to do some more analysis before I make any spring and summer conclusions.
The weather pattern continues to cycle in the 44 to 51 day range, and in recent weeks it has been in the 46 to 49 day range most often. This most recent storm lines up almost perfectly with the late October storm. In tomorrows blog we will look at the October 22nd and January 22nd comparisons, around 92 days apart. The models are showing a good indication of what will likely happen next, very similar to the patterns from the first two cycles. Let’s just hope that this cycle three version continues to produce.
Thank you for participating and sharing in this weather experience. Click on the Weather2020 blog here: Weather2020 blog and let’s all learn as we discuss the latest trends on the models and how they do or do not fit the LRC. This is one of those days that I am in meetings most of the day. I will check in when I have time! Have a great Wednesday.