Six Snowfalls In The Last Month In Kansas City

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Good morning bloggers,

What did I say last night on 41Action News?  I said that Arctic air has retreated north, but it is very, very cold up in Canada and it will blast down a few more times this season between now and early March, and this has to end up helping set the stage for that elusive accumulating snowfall right?   For now, it is a big warming trend heading our way. And, what else did I say? I said that we have had six snowfalls in the past month. Our first accumulation of the season happened on Christmas Eve, and we have now had six accumulations in this past month:

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Six accumulations for a total of 4.9″.  This is actually very good news to the snow removal businesses out there. These small little events, and with a few extra saltings I think we are up to around 9 small little events for these businesses, are very good for many of these landscaping companies around KC that salt and plow.  Now, just look at the last three winters. Last winter we had a total of 4.9″ as well, but for the entire season. The total of the past four winters is now 29.8″ and the number of accumulating snowfalls is around 35. What would fix this average? A couple of 6 to 10 inch snowstorms would definitely raise the average, but we haven’t even had a chance to forecast a 1 to 3 inch snow in years:

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The Arctic air has retreated north way up into Canada. These were the temperatures from 10 PM last night:

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So, will the Arctic air blast south again? Yes, and it should happen within the next two weeks or so. The jet stream is reaching its peak strength during these next two weeks as well. When we go to the other side of that peak jet stream strength, some different results from the pattern may very well start happening.  Jeff Penner is strongly suggesting there will not be a drought this spring over our area. Jeff believes there is just too much activity with troughs digging into and east of the plains for the drought to expand, and instead he thinks it will contract as we move through the next few months. I am not convinced yet, but I would like to do some more analysis before I make any spring and summer conclusions.

The weather pattern continues to cycle in the 44 to 51 day range, and in recent weeks it has been in the 46 to 49 day range most often.  This most recent storm lines up almost perfectly with the late October storm. In tomorrows blog we will look at the October 22nd and January 22nd comparisons, around 92 days apart.  The models are showing a good indication of what will likely happen next, very similar to the patterns from the first two cycles. Let’s just hope that this cycle three version continues to produce.

Thank you for participating and sharing in this weather experience.  Click on the Weather2020 blog here: Weather2020 blog and let’s all learn as we discuss the latest trends on the models and how they do or do not fit the LRC.  This is one of those days that I am in meetings most of the day. I will check in when I have time!  Have a great Wednesday.

Gary

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Dave in LS
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Dave in LS

Great post, definitely a lot to think about. Also agree that the LRC predicts pretty accurately about when we see storms, and not what that storm will do. Again great take on the LRC

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

So here is how I see it. The LRC predicts the upper level pattern. As I stated this morning upper level pattern doesn’t really mean anything to what we get here on the surface. What happens 30,000 ft up doesn’t matter. Really. We know that storms will be passing through on X date. We know where ridges and highs will be. The LRC states that. It’s great to know that. But the problem is seasonal variances. Why do the seasonal variances exist and what drives them? I know in the past I have proposed my FRMC / my moisture pattern… Read more »

Rod
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Rod

Great analysis foodl3. I think Gary should incorporate your post into a blog, there is a lot to dissect from it but you have some very good points. Thanks for the great explanation!!

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Our biggest snow this winter will come in March.

Bobbie
Guest
Bobbie

Seven days of wiggler room now?? It’s like the 3 degree warrenty….yeah 3 degrees either way of your predicted temp.

Heat Mizer
Guest
Heat Mizer

That’s right..its really a seven degree warranty…seven degree range, i.e…you pick 5 degrees….so 2, 3, 4, 5 ,6, 7, 8 degrees and you fall within the warranty.

Brian watson
Guest
Brian watson

One. Every station has called for very little snow and they aren’t using the lrc. 2 you wait until a few days out before forecasting snow totals and say that it was known all along. One of the guys said earlier it’s only for us that everyone puts out a snowfall forecast. Well those rare times when you are close on the snowfall total you sure tout it like it was part of the lrc that made you make such a great prediction. Yet no one can say anything when you’re 20 inches off on your prediction, because it’ll be… Read more »

Troy Newman
Member
Troy Newman

If we really are using the LRC should we not be expecting what happened on Halloween to occur again? If I use it alone I would predict a piddly storm moving in from NE and tracking toward KC that gives most areas about 1″ of snow. That is what happened then but it was warm enough many areas did not accumulate much but with the season change we should get an inch.

Richard
Guest
Richard

To each his own.
But you made no sense with that entire post.

” 2 you wait until a few days out before forecasting snow totals and say that it was known all along.”

Huh ?
Every met waits until a few days out from a storm before forecasting totals. Every met.

Richard
Guest
Richard

*My above comment was directed at Brian Watson

Brian watson
Guest
Brian watson

He is saying the lrc predicted the totals for the storm like he knew it all along. I know every meteorologist adjusts his snowfall totals or waits until late in the game to make his forecast. It’s not that hard to understand. He’s saying he knows it will only be .5 to 2 inches because of the lrc and that was what part of the statement was based on.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Thank you Gary, it just gets frustrating but hope that this snow drought doesn’t equate to a rainfall drought in spring and summer. No more dry weather in the growing season please and thank you again!

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

My question is if there is a system that shows up in the Jan 28th – Feb 2 timeframe per the LRC and it was showing on the GFS model for days, is it still there? It appears to have been lost in the latest model run or is it just too weak to produce any precipitation based on this model run? Just curious as it was another one that was hoped to get to the 21 inches of snow and now it appears to have really gone at least for now. Just seems like the models do lots of… Read more »

numb3rsguy
Guest
numb3rsguy

I’d like to give Gary some credit here. As a snow lover, of course I would have liked Gary’s 21″ forecast to pan out (I know winter isn’t over yet and it still might). But the fact that Gary said it would be dry and colder than normal has been realized. He also predicted which regions would be warmer or colder than normal with extreme accuracy. Although he may have been off so far on the exact amounts of snow, the fact that Gary knows when a storm will be tracking across the Midwest 100 days in advance is amazing.… Read more »

ChaoticAtmosphereGuy
Guest
ChaoticAtmosphereGuy

If snowfall forecasting is so tough, and he should be given a pass because of its complexity, maybe he should admit the precision isn’t there to justify forecasting a season-long total.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Chaotic
He does it becayse the masses expect it. Every met gives predictions of snowfall totals.
Every met.
Gary would rather wait until mid-late Dec when they have a good handle on the new LRC.
But stations and the viewers want that prediction before its even winter yet.
He said dry. It has been. He said cold. It has been.
Snowfall totals should be scrubbed, because even the best of the best are often wrong.

Give’em a break !

Richard
Guest
Richard

To clarify what I said
Predicting Snowfall totals as early as Nov or early Dec should be scrubbed.
Or not given at all. But the viewing public wants it. The station heads want it.
So mets give it. Then they get pounded if totals end up way below or above what they predicted.
It’s a PREDICTION.
The LRC is not ever going to tell how much total snow. I don’t think ?

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

But in the same respect, that’s how Gary markets it. The winter forecast is really his marketing tool for the LRC.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Richard,

Bravo! 😀

ChaoticAtmosphereGuy
Guest
ChaoticAtmosphereGuy

And to your end that it is amazing because he can say a storm system will be nearby around July 14 — well anyone can do that. His definition of “storm” is so broad, and the 44-51-day wiggle room so expansive that it will always fit.

Hold me to it: I guarantee that I can show you a map that will show a storm system in the middle section of the country around July 14, give or take a few days. Mark it down.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Chaotic, So you are saying, we will always have a storm system in the middle of the country on or around July 14th? Every year? Careful making outlandish statements as I am betting based on historical data, that is far from fact. Might want to go back and read discussion about hurricanes in the Gulf. Same thing was said and guess what, 3 years with ZERO hurricanes in the Gulf. Can we stick to facts rather than opinion? And to back what I am saying, I will try and make time to look at historical data that I am confident… Read more »

RobertCali
Guest
RobertCali

That’s exactly what I’m saying.

Show me surface maps for July 10-18th of any given year (remember: his theory gives 7 days wiggle room – a 44-51-day cycle), and I’ll show you a storm system somewhere in the middle of the country.

Guaranteed.

Troy Newman
Member
Troy Newman

I think he can do that but one big issue is that while the pattern sticks to its cycle the jet stream does not. By summer the jet is so far North we have almost zero chance of any of these storms tracking across the area. Weak fronts, nearly invisible weak waves and outflow boundaries are what cause rain then. Much of it is found along the edge of the anti-cyclone which moves around through the course of the summer. What I see in the LRC is it sets up the upper air pattern. It also gives you the timing… Read more »

Tdogg
Guest
Tdogg

I know two children who would love a snow play day!

Heat Mizer
Guest
Heat Mizer

You and who else?

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

In Gary We Trust! Thanks for the info Gary! 17 inches of snow up here in nebraska Monday, 50 mph winds. Quite the storm. Had 5 inches my place.

Keep Up The Good Work!

GO SOONERS!! Trae Wooden! rock smacked the gawks.

Heat Mizer
Guest
Heat Mizer

I thought KU won that game.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Sooners won it

Dan T
Guest
Dan T

Looking at the storm that was supposed to occur this weekend, it’s there on Friday night. Guess what? Looks to do exactly what it did in cycle 1, give KC little to no measurable precipitation.

Roger
Guest
Roger

This whole winter has been a hoax. I know nothing much was anticipated and yes we have had cold. But the limited to no snow regime perfectly fits my location and many others surrounding me. In the middle of nowhere, with NOTHING (as far as producing a decent snow) to show for it.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Yeah – what happened to that Jan 27/28 storm? When our weekend half-inch blizzard happened everyone was like “but we could have a big snow on the 27/28, fits the LRC”

Fred
Guest
Fred

That storm ended up north.

Or maybe south.

East?

West?

It went somewhere…oh, I know! It’s now showing up again in 10 days. That’s where it went. It just delayed its arrival to ten days from now!

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

That storm completely disappeared, a literal poof. Never know which one will pan out, I had hopes for a wetter storm with maybe an inch or 2 or rain at some point this winter. Central MO got that rain last storm, maybe we can get them to trend further west in time

Roger
Guest
Roger

Here is an index I found from the Midwest Regional Climate Center. The Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index measures the intensity of Winter. It takes into account the amount of snowfall, days of snow on the ground, and persistence of cold weather. Based on climatology, most of Kansas is considered to be only in a Moderate type of winter. Or about the 40th percentile. Places south and east of here are in a Severe to Extreme winter. Of course most of the Southwest U.S. is in a Mild category. At this point, the ASSCI index does not take into account… Read more »

Richard
Guest
Richard

Drought ! Hot ! Wet ! Cool !
Who knows what summer will bring.
Last spring/ summer proved we just don’t know yet based on what this winter has done.
I thought we were in for a drought. So did Gary and others.
Storms that missed us last winter decided to visit us in spring-summer. It was nice. Very nice.

Ugh. Still having to sign in here.

Faithful Woodsman
Guest
Faithful Woodsman

I rarely comment, but thought I would share my experiences in light of recent posts. I have been following Gary and the LRC for five years now since my dad moved out to KC. The past two years I have tracked the LRC locally where I live in central Ohio. The two biggest takeaways I have found are these: 1) Gary’s overall winter forecast for the “big picture” has been dead nuts on since I have followed him. 2) The cycling gets less and less accurate to dates and systems as it progresses throughout the year. Again, this is what… Read more »

Rod
Guest
Rod

I like the trends on the GFS yesterday & today on snow for central MO around Feb 1-2. At least we’re only 8 days away & not 10. Hope trend continues.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

We were supposed to get a big storm THIS weekend, forecasted last week, rememeber? That storm is just as bogus as the rest of them, no need to even discuss them until we are Alot closer. I sound like Heatmizer….

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Agreed, get me to Monday with the models consistently showing snow, then we’ll talk.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

A big ol YAWN

Nick
Guest
Nick

IMO that is because there are patterns where the jet stream set up will produce dry weather in the colder season( even drier than avg.) but then will produce wetter weather in the warmer seasons, if it were that straight foreward, the LRC would have been discovered years ago. Its a pattern that is cycling in the jet stream, now some will say that it makes the LRC useless when trying to forecast different seasons, but I say that it is not, because if you can get a good handle on how the jet will look going forward you should… Read more »

ChaoticAtmosphereGuy
Guest
ChaoticAtmosphereGuy

Then why, after a purported 20 or 30 years of using his theory, was Gary not able to spot this “different patterns in the jet stream” last spring? Last spring, we were coming off of a record-dry winter and Gary called for a bad drought for the summer. This was a call that must have had substantial impacts on his agriculture clients that he speaks of on this blog…yet 2017 ended up being a record growing season ; we got an abundance of moisture (well above average) and never saw prolonged heat waves…it was a spectacular summer, by most accounts.… Read more »

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

I believe Gary admitted that was a complete miss. That being said, it would be nice to do a complete review as to why it turned that way it did for the immediate KC area. While areas not far from here actually did not do so well on precip.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Funny how that premium service for his agriculture clients is no longer offered. Wonder if he had to refund them all when they paid the ungodly amount of like $1000 it cost because his drought prediction did not pan out and was totally off?

Richard
Guest
Richard

He refunded it with book sales from its a sunny life 😊
Just teasing.
Why would he have to refund any of it ? They paid for the service of forecasting. Some of it was wrong but a lot of it right. Agriculture is year-round. Not just spring/summer.

Troy Newman
Member
Troy Newman

I paid a fee. It wasn’t $1000 I did not get refunded and am not asking for one. I did get a drought too (well 5 inches below normal). The reason you didn’t get a drought was that you didn’t pay for the service!

RobertCali
Guest
RobertCali

Well, in that case, I’m glad I didn’t pay … I got ample rainfall, cool temps, and a spectacular growing season.

Pays to not pay I guess.

Nick
Guest
Nick

*Am I concerned…

ChaoticAtmosphereGuy
Guest
ChaoticAtmosphereGuy

I posted on the same topic as many yesterday. The fact that there’s little to no correlation between a dry winter and then a dry summer makes me skeptical of the LRC. If the pattern sets up in October and cycles through winter into the spring and summer, then the trends of winter should foretell at least something about spring/summer. I get that storms can be different — some weaker, some stronger, per his theory, but overall, over long terms of years and decades, if this theory held true, then a dry winter should portend a higher-than-average likelihood of a… Read more »

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

You correct that it’s just not numbers. Those numbers can give you factual info about previous years, not for the future. A downfall conception about the LRC is seen many ways.
1. Relative to where you are
2. Where did it actually precip at
3. When did it start
4. How much precip
5. Why lol

If we look at the basics, the LRC provides enough info that when there will be Be storm systems of any size in our area. Overall on how much precip is still a work in progress, especially for winter.

Nick
Guest
Nick

Basically as long as your not directly under a long term ridge or trough, but are in between them there is a better chance that different seasons could have different results, and it seems we are in the middle again, so I will still wait and see what will happen in the end, I’m I concerned that it could get dry this spring/summer? sure, but I think there is still hope that things will turn abit like last year, just hopefully St. Joe wont be in the rain shadow this time around.

Stl78
Guest
Stl78

Yo GARY, they still workin on website? Thx!!

Stl78
Guest
Stl78

I think feb will b above avg on moisture and below avg on temps. Goin out with a bang! Terry, hold on😉

Dan T
Guest
Dan T

There is evidence of the LRC cycling, however what is challenging is seasonal differences. February will be interesting to watch as move back into the November part of the cycle. November was fairly warm with very little rainfall in Kansas City. The storm systems that did move through were not functional until they got over the Ohio Valley and Southeastern States. Will this change? Probably not with this part of the pattern. And then what about the areas west and south west of KC? The trend on the models still shows little or no rain as the drought will continue… Read more »

ChaoticAtmosphereGuy
Guest
ChaoticAtmosphereGuy

If these ‘seasonal’ differences can turn a big wet storm dry and warm or, alternatively, convert a small dry wave in the flow from the fall into a huge blizzard in the winter, then how is the LRC at all useful?

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

That there will be a storm in the area

DanT
Guest
DanT

There is evidence of the LRC cycling, however what is challenging is seasonal differences. February will be interesting to watch as we move back into the November part of the cycle. November was fairly warm with very little rainfall in Kansas City. The storm systems that did move through were not functional until they got over the Ohio Valley and Southeastern States. Will this change? Probably not with this part of the pattern. And then what about the areas west and south west of KC? The trend on the models still shows little or no rain as the drought will… Read more »

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

People were discussing megadroughts yesterday, and mentioned there have been periods of hundreds of years of abnormally dry conditions. Sure there had to be some rains in that period but generally speaking very co editions that lasted for decades on end. Made me wonder, could mankind survive such an event? The entire planet might not suffer from the same dry conditions but imagine if it did. A ten year global drought might be enough to take Civilization to the brink of collapse of not complete collapse. We already know the stores only have enough food for 3 days, and we… Read more »

numb3rsguy
Guest
numb3rsguy

I’m pretty interested in global climate change (drought, hot, cold, floods, whatever it may be). I’d love to discuss it more, but I don’t think that this blog is the appropriate place to do so because instead of scientific discussions they typically become polarized and political.

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

I agree w/ 2 previous comments-there is a cycle (mets have actually known about it for a long time, long before GL came along) and you can generally tell what the wx might do regionally but for any one locale you cannot ACCURATELY forecast the wx more than 3-5 days days out, no matter what cycling pattern, model etc. you’re using. Just a fact.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

” Mets have actually known about the cycling weather pattern long before the LRC”? Who, please provide sources as I research the weather extensively and never uncovered any other concrete theories predating the LRC.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

Probably just folklore, like the myth that a major storm comes 90 days after a heavy fog. That one has been around for several generations.

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

Three7’s, Not useless, I would call It explorative fun. Think about it, if you were to totally separate your frustrations from the last few winters and any other preconceptions about KC area winters, you could approach every new LRC with an open mind of all possibilities, including ones you don’t like. I think most will agree that if we have received only a small amount of snow at this point every winter and watching storm after storm miss and/or strengthen off to our east, yea, we would call any winter snowfall forecast a bust, possibly. That being said, let’s say… Read more »

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Sure, the 21 inches could verify with a back-loaded winter. I’ve just seen too many storms come through where there is just far too much uncertainty as to what it will do right up to the event.. That’s where my issues with the LRC have always been, especially during winter.

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

I agree with that. Being that is really when the LRC is dissected and it also happens to come at time with the holidays, seasons changing, possible lack of outdoor activities, stuck inside because it’s cold and might as well snow. Heady thinks it starts earlier than Gary, maybe what Heady see’s is the evolution of the harmonics and Gary see’s the beginnings of the new pattern evolving. Both of which are players. What I see are both are right but the uncertainty of the unknowns add a huge learning curve each year. An example is the western ridge that… Read more »

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

There was a comment yesterday about how the LRC can be off on snowfall by 20″. Gary responded that the LRC predicted the 4th year straight of snow drought. That is totally a farse.

Gary predicted above average snowfall this winter with 21″.

Yes, I believe the LRC does exist. The problem is that the seasonal differences and surface features mean that whatever happens 30,000 feet above us doesn’t really make a damn difference.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Foodl3,

I have read Gary’s statement multiple times, I cannot find where he said ” the LRC predicted a snow drought” Gary stated that we are in a 4 year snow drought. Using the LRC, he predicted a dry winter. Using the LRC, he predicted 21 inches based on the 17 day stretch of activity in the first cycle. Winter isn’t over and we still have multiple chances to gain in our snow totals however, predicting a seasonal total of snow does not make or break the accuracy of the LRC.

Brian watson
Guest
Brian watson

Snowfall doesn’t make or break the cyvle theory. The fact that he’s what 10-20 years into this thing and most of his seasonal forecasts bust is what breaks it. Again he’s good at making predictions a few days in advance, but the cycle premise is that he can make long term forecasts based on this lrc which unless you’re wearing your very own Gary Lezak sunglasses is complete false. By the way these sunglasses are being sold right now for 19.99 and if you buy now you get a second pair free. Is there something to this cycle theory? I… Read more »

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Brian, I addressed this the other day. You still haven’t commented on the cycles lining up and the fact that many of us have used them to predict the recent storms a month in advance so please, explain to me how this isn’t considered long term? You can result to high school antics i.e., “Gary Lezak sunglasses”, I will not. I am simply interested in debating the weather based solely on facts and evidence, this thing called science. Throwing jabs, making silly comments is commonly done by those who are defending a purely subjective opinion rather than applying scientific objectivity.… Read more »

Brian watson
Guest
Brian watson

You say you believe in facts. How about results? Almost every year the snowfall prediction is way off. Most springs the precipitation expectation is way off. What are we giving credit to? Because a storm system comes through every week and one of them gives us a dusting and a little rain occasionally? I want to see a posting for 6 random days between late February and mid march and see just 3 of them both come close and noon temperature and precipitation. You and he can’t do it. Leave the post up every day with no adjusting as the… Read more »

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

No offense to Gary, but the LRC is completely useless in the winter months. What good is knowing a storm will be “in the area” if you can’t tell what it will do? It’s pretty obvious that this is the case. Sure, in the spring and summer months, the LRC is great, but it really doesn’t do much for us in the winter.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Three7s, I can certainly understand why you would think that however, that isn’t necessarily true. Think about this, 20, 30 or even 40 years ago, we wouldn’t know whether or not a storm was possible until days before. With the LRC, we now know the most likely days for storm systems. I gave examples on yesterdays blog. In November, I identified the Christmas weekend system and the one that followed it. You can go back into the blogs to verify. If the LRC is useless during the winter, how was I able to do that? Now, I wasn’t able to… Read more »

Mandy
Guest
Mandy

This article is from 2012, but I think it’s still relevant today:

http://fox6now.com/2012/01/04/why-the-lrc-doesnt-make-sense-to-winter-forecasting/

Troy Newman
Member
Troy Newman

I sure hope Jeff is right. It is true that the ridge axis has rarely been overhead and almost always to our West. It is true that we have had active weather just not a lot of accumulation. It seems the ridging in the SW is returning and so is the cold from here on East. I would imagine the further SW you are the more likely drought would be under this scenario? I can recall quite a few years like when things looked good up here but we would go to Salina for something and everything was burned up… Read more »

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

I tend to agree w/ Jeff P. the pattern is usually very active here in KC in the spring and early summer months but as I said yesterday there’s no guarantee that it will or wont be active, here’s to hoping it is. No way to ACCURATELY tell this far out, but we need some rain soon and for sure.

Lary Gezak
Guest
Lary Gezak

Feb 1st starting out with a bang? Keep watching this GFS trend…

5th and 6th Grade Science Teacher
Guest
5th and 6th Grade Science Teacher

Gary, I have been following your weather blog for the past three years. I just want to say I have learn so much about the weather and how complicated it is from your blog and your weather forescast on the news. I am a 5th and 6th grade teacher. I get very excited when I teach the weather unit, which I am starting with my 6th graders. I usually use the knowledge I gain from your blogs to get my students just as excited as I am about the weather. Once again, thank you so much for your blogs and… Read more »