Winter Weather Advisory Thursday

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Good Evening Bloggers,

What? I am writing a second blog today? Something must be going on right? I just presented to the big AMS Conference in Austin and made some bold predictions using the LRC.  And, from the second I concluded my talk the trend on the models has been good. Now, we have been through this a bit before, so we are on a weather ride that may not end up so nice.  Three chances! I have said this before. Three storm systems, but we must break through the first one and we never break through, or we haven’t yet.  The first chance is Thursday. The second chance is Saturday morning. And, the third chance is Sunday.  We have had these three chances before, but when we don’t break through the first one, the the others fizzle as well. COME ON MOTHER NATURE! We deserve this.

Winter Weather Advisory:

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Kansas City.  Right after sunrise on Thursday we are forecasting a strong cold front to blast through with rain, possibly a thunderstorm, changing to freezing rain, sleet, and possibly some snow.  Accumulations are expected to be light, but very slick, on the icing, and then a dusting to an inch of snow could fall fairly quickly, with a few spots possibly getting a bit more. Northwest Missouri has the best chance of 3 or more inches of snow.

Screen Shot 2018-01-10 at 2.31.30 PM

The wave of energy that is causing this potential fast moving winter weather event is trending farther south, just a bit. Some areas may get missed and if this is just a bit farther north that miss could be KC again, but as I said, the trend is south and a bit stronger.  I am getting on the airplane and heading back to KC. I will check on the blog from the air. The presentation this morning went very well. The response was overwhelmingly positive, but still a shocked look from my peers.

Here is the NAM Snowfall Forecast that just came out:

2

Thank you for reading the second blog of the day and go to Weather2020 to join in the conversation.  Have a great evening.

Gary

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ClassyCatBSMikeKS JonesBSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS)Weatherman Recent comment authors
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BSMike
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BSMike

Snowing mixing in now downtown KCK/ KC

BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS)
Guest
BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS)

Did Gary SLEEP IN!!!

Weatherman
Guest
Weatherman

Last nights 02z HRRR really did a good job with this rain band.

Weatherman
Guest
Weatherman

Last nights 02z HRRR really did a good job with this rain band.

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Gary: Good Thursday morning to you sir!! Have picked up close .50 inch of rain so far and now have sleet and freezing rain…drive and trees are have a glaze of ice on them….loking at radar look to have some more light freezing rain/drizzle for an hour or two and that will probably be it. I will now respectfully argue that this storm did not go poof nor did it miss us. It was never going to be a major or even a mid major storm system but I have recieved a decent rain and now have frozen precip with… Read more »

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

It is currently 18° with 30 MPH wind (25 miles north of Manhattan). We got 0.08″ of drizzle before it turned to sleet & then snow.
Objects 1/8 of a mile away are not visible due to blowing snow, and as a result of drifting it is difficult to measure the accumulation, but my attempts showed 2.5″ so far.
Radar shows the snow might continue here for another one or two hours.

sedsinkc
Guest
sedsinkc

This is going to be mostly ice for KC. Vort max tracking very close to KC or just west, leaves the big snows well to our west and northwest. Sorry, snow lovers.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones
stl78
Guest
stl78

Wow, thats awesome! My wifes a big runner but shes having issues running in the extreme cold that weve had the past few wks up here. Keep up the great work. I hope at the very least kc gets some much needes moisture.

Bobbie
Guest
Bobbie

Gary can you get your tech guy to install a down arrow please???

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

(Didn’t bike yesterday – Ran 13.2 instead 😀 )

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Yup! Plan on doing a studded tire ride later today. Rode on the trails Monday after the black ice event – trails were completely glazed over, yet I cut through them like a hot knife through butter! Did 57 miles MON+TUE combined – no slipping unless I got off to use a portapoty!

stl78
Guest
stl78

Big deal. An individual posted a wx map on a wx blog. It may have had next to 0% chance of verifying but it was still computer generated prediction. Had it actually verified everyone would have been in disbelief. I have zero issues with someone posting a wx map, regatdless of how unlikely it is. Btw f00, u been riding your bike much of late? Did u put the studded tires on this yr? Have a great day! Cold front has really blasted througj here in se mn. They actually cancelled my kids school bc of the ice hitting at… Read more »

Weatherby Tom
Guest
Weatherby Tom

Just hit 32 degrees at my house, with rain/snow mix. Love weather days like this!!

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

omg – NAM HRRR GFS all models say today went poof! No snow!

SHOCK!

I have no idea who pulled that image showing us getting 6″ of snow this afternoon. Pure lunacy!

Kstater
Guest
Kstater

We were only supposed to get an inch or less and that’s still what they show. That 6” image had to be fake or from some random foreign model.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Agreed! 👌🏻

BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS)
Guest
BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS)

just south of Topeka radar seems to be blowing up and filling in, anyone else see that?

Baseball Mike
Guest
Baseball Mike

Mike
Here in Berryton-just to the SE of Topeka the sleet is really coming down and the radar is filling in fast just to our west-I believe the storm is ramping up a little-as I told one of my fellow bloggers who lives on the opposite side of Topekan we received .50 of rain it is icing here now.

Michael/Berryton

BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS)
Guest
BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS)

at least it’s not boring, and I consider this breaking the ice as well!!

Phillip
Guest
Phillip

DRYSLOT

Phillip
Guest
Phillip

Only thing we’re really going to have to worry about is the rain that’s falling now freezing later in the day when it drops below freezing. We aren’t going to see much in the way of frozen precip falling from the sky today with this “storm”

MikeL
Guest
MikeL

28 degrees and sleet at my house in sw topeka.

Baseball Mike
Guest
Baseball Mike

Mike frozen precip here at 45th and Croco-
I was shocked this morning when I looked at our rain gauge-we we’re blessed with .50 and if we can get another .10 from frozen this will be a very welcome event.
Michael/Berryton

MikeL
Guest
MikeL

Yeah Mike, I was happy to hear it raining early this morning. It’s been a while…

BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS)
Guest
BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS)

cold front just hit here downtown, raining sideways now

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

Only .03” so far in Maryville and temps dropping to 36’ Hoping it changes over too snow soon!
Michael

Steve
Guest
Steve

How’s it look for downtown KC area?

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Hallelujah! I’ve been getting moderate rain for the past half hour and it keeps developing right near me. Finally broke the ice. What a welcome sound to here it on the roof and windows.

Rickmckc
Guest
Rickmckc

Great!

F5 Weather site presentation of 0z GFS (and GEM) continues to insist on 4+ inches of snow in KC, less in your area. ECMWF 0z picking up on the same idea but lesser amounts around an inch or two.

Will be curious to see as this site costs $14/mo!

Phillip
Guest
Phillip

Cold and not much precip… yay 😒 typical Kc weather

Dave LS
Guest
Dave LS

Defenitliy*

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Gary: Happy Wednesday again!!! One of my forecast parameters at school worked out….we have our one snow day!!!! It for sure seems premature giving that this storm could for sure miss us or we could wake up in the morning and the front is still to our west but considering we have a whole town of 16-18 year olds who have yet to really drive on snow or ice, I would argue that it is the right call. Appears the surface low has dropped just south of the Oklahoma Panhandle into the northern Texas Panhandle…..and the front has just passed… Read more »

Dave LS
Guest
Dave LS

I saw the wind there to bill, this little guy has a bit of a bite to him. I think he can hang on!! Deffenitly will be the fight of his life ha.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

It’s still 50° here, but the weather change is getting closer.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/north-central-region/weather-radar?play=1

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Gary, while it is fun to run a blog, if it can’t be maintained in a technical and professional manner such that everyone can participate where the participants are always in moderation it is no longer a blog. I’m sorry, but this blog has seriously degraded over the last year. It’s to the point I no longer want to participate. I’ll be looking to blog on other sites. When you work out the technical issues let me know. Until then I’ll not be here. It’s not worth my time or effort. I’ll also be letting others know on other social… Read more »

Dave LS
Guest
Dave LS

I will be tracking this tonight into tomorrow morning. I know it’s crazy, but this is probably the most interesting storm for us, with all forms of precipitation. I guess if we can’t have a major snowstorm this is the next best thing.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

SMSD closed for tomorrow. What is going on? Surprise storm outta nowhere? Also, the site crashed about an hour ago, that is frustrating, especially when Gary just gave a symposium on why weather blogs are so helpful. They are not squat when they don’t work. Also, we desperately need a down arrow on this blog.

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

This is the biggest problem with Weather2020. There i smething going on with regards to constant blocking and people being thrown into moderation. It’s no longer an open real-time blog. I’m thinking of starting up a new blog page where this will not happen, where people can also post pics. And yes Mr Pete, the blog entry will be at the top which means you will want to go to the bottom and scroll up if you want to see what earlier bloggers posted. But I’d have auto arrow to facilitate.😊

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

SMSD closed for tomorrow. What is going on? Surprise storm outta nowhere? Also, the site crashed about an hour ago, that is frustrating, especially when Gary just gave a symposium on why weather blogs are so helpful. They are not squat when they don’t work. Also, we desperately need a down arrow on this blog.

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Once again I’m in mod. This is absurd. I didn’t even post links. Bye. Done. No longer a viable blog. Shameful.

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Taking a look at temps in the 925mb and 850mb layers, the warmer/wet layer is the 850mb. Looking at both RAP and HRRR models it appears that freezing precip may move in around 8am to 9am. I think it will be on the “early” side. As for myself, I plan on hauling myself out of bed earlier than usual and driving into downtown before the changeover happens. Will be rechecking models and TV at 6am in case it has moved timewise. Just hope the city salts late morning through early afternoon as temps really drop. We need to make sure… Read more »

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

Looks like a rainbow of colors for nodaway County. Goes from four inches to a foot! Got the bobcats fueled and ready!
Michael

Richard
Guest
Richard

My comments were not posting, so I kept trying. Sorry

Richard
Guest
Richard

Testing testing

Richard
Guest
Richard

Gary,
Does the tech team know
this is 2nd day now trouble getting this site to load. It was slow on Mon too. But yesterday and today really bad.

Considering a STORM is coming there should be over 100 comments on here, but there isn’t.
Imagine many are having trouble getting on here. Took me 4 tries and about 15 min to load the site, then load comments.

Gio
Guest
Gio

NWS is still making this out to be basically a non-event for KC, yet all of the major school districts have closed. Am I missing something here?

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

How is flash freezing creates potentially an ice rink a non event?

Richard
Guest
Richard

Gary, tech team
2nd day now trouble getting this site to load. It was slow on Mon too. But yesterday and today really bad.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

See that little Vort lobe about to enter SW Oklahoma, It’s clearly visible on radar. That will interact with the system to enhance our precip here, HRRR shows some decent looking storms in early morning hours. Modeling that Vort perfectly,love HRRR!

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

It looks like the surface low is sitting between Pueblo, Colorado and the Oklahoma Panhandle…I think?? Will be interesting to track….my gosh…there is actually something to track!!!!! I mean this is pretty funny if you think about it….even if the 12Z and 18Z are correct we are talking a very minor event in so many other winters….but considering the last 2 and the lack of snow so far this winter….this may as well be a blizzard LOL I’m not even sure if it matters if it verifies or not….just having 6 hours of thinking we could have something…..not sure I… Read more »

BSMike
Member
BSMike

Terry I do hope you get the snow present 🎁 on your birthday

BSMike
Member
BSMike

Actually it’s name is Hunter Terry per TWC

Eric Rothrock
Guest
Eric Rothrock

When are the new models coming out? Post links? Anything looking like it’s gonna head more south?

Terry
Guest
Terry

Storm terry is coming

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Terry:

I hope so…for no other reason than for you to have some sort of winter weather on your birthday!!!!

Hope it happens for you!!!! 🙂

Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

***Winter Storm Terry**** – BRING IT!!!!

TonganoxieSplit
Guest
TonganoxieSplit

When we get some new data? Im ready for it bring it on!

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Gary: Happy Wednesday evening to you sir…hope you had a good flight back!! So glad to hear that the conference went well!!! Looking at the current surface observations, it appears that the front is currently through Hill City and then just across the border from Concordia, Kansas. There are some pretty decent echo returns erase of Denver and pretty good area of rain in west central Texas….it appears this storm is trying to get its act together or keep its act together. To be fair, there is really not much to say about all of this until we get to… Read more »

Bobbie
Guest
Bobbie

I have enough milk, eggs, and bread to make it through this terrifying storm. I look forward to the live reports from the salt domes…we better get something as much as the local’s are covering this.

LSDoc
Guest
LSDoc

I thought the trolls on here would be banned? Why am I paying for this site?

Fred Nolan
Guest
Fred Nolan

Why are you paying for this site? This site has been free now for sometime…

Choppy
Guest
Choppy

Correct

Richard
Guest
Richard

Anyone seeing anything for week of Jan 21 ?

Here’s a detailed article from weather centre blogspot about a major storm Jan 23-27. And he thinks it will impact us here.

“confident in the chance for a winter storm in the country sometime between January 23 and January 27, with precipitation chances potentially favoring the mid-section of the country, from the central Plains through the Midwest and Ohio Valley.”

https://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2018/01/january-23-27-potentially-significant.html

SnowCommander
Guest
SnowCommander
SnowCommander
Guest
SnowCommander

Whoops that’s not it. Hold on.

SnowCommander
Guest
SnowCommander
SnowCommander
Guest
SnowCommander

Nope.