Another Storm Is About To Miss Kansas City

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Good morning bloggers,

As discussed in yesterday’s blog, Kansas City is far from alone on getting missed over and over again. The frustrations mount when a storm approaches and is so close, and then it leaves us in the dust.  That is what will most likely happen on Thursday. Take a look:

1

This is the NAM model surface forecast valid at 6 AM Thursday. I will be back in KC Thursday experience another miss.  And, look how close it is to KC, to Maryville, MO.  Maryville, MO may be miles from missing this one.  A strong cold front will move through Thursday morning. There is a chance of thunderstorms as the surface low passes by to the northwest early Thursday morning around 3 AM, but by 6 AM you can see the low in northeastern Iowa.  There is a warm sector to this storm over Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana.  In the spring months this setup will likely produce a significant severe weather outbreak.  It can happen during the winter as well if more warm and moist air was available, and this may be the case by Friday as you can see below with the fully formed cyclone:

2

The area of snow coming in from the northwest will be monitored closely, but KC is placed perfectly to most likely get missed again. It is difficult to have to always try to explain misses, but we don’t have a choice do we?  For areas out east, my goodness, it is another exciting storm.

Snowfall Forecast From This Morning’s NAM Model:

3

Remember, Dodge City and Amarillo are still sitting at no snow for the season. The far back edge of this system may clip Dodge City, but it appears, Amarillo will get missed once again.  Have a great day. I am presenting tomorrow morning (Wednesday morning) at the conference. Thank you for your great comments on why this blog is successful. I am using a few of them in my presentation.  Have a great day. The blog will be rather late tomorrow, so please be patient.

Take a look at this:

Screen Shot 2018-01-09 at 9.42.59 AM

Look at the system off of the Florida west coast over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This is what is left of the system that brought KC rain on Sunday.  It is now over the Gulf of Mexico.  Now, look at this:

Screen Shot 2018-01-09 at 9.45.53 AM

This is day 1 or day 2 of this years LRC. LRC Cycle 1, day 1!  Hurricane Nate was forming in the Gulf of Mexico.  Remember, Weather2020 actually predicted Hurricane Harvey 55 days before it formed right here in the blog.  How? This is how!  There is a very good chance of a hurricane around September 1st right near this location.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the cycling weather pattern.  We are continuing our great discussion about everything weather and more on the Weather2020 blog, so go click on that here to join in the conversation:  Weather2020 Blog

Gary

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sedsinkcf00dl3FreezemiserNicholasRod Recent comment authors
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f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Hey – guess what???!

The storm that was TEN DAYS AWAY is now GONE! Poof!

LRC – weather pattern keeps repeating. Over. and Over. And over. And Over. and over.

AND OVER!

Get used to it!

Freezemiser
Member
Freezemiser

The NWS is painting a different picture for Thursday and Friday. I bet we get something out of the sky that is frozen.

Nicholas
Guest
Nicholas

So tropical tidbits has a new model on it the “ICON” model when we finally get an exciting pattern it is going to be fun to have all these new models to look at 🙂

Rod
Guest
Rod

JoeK I’m located just south of Columbia in Ashland, MO. Hoping with being just a little further east I pick up on some better snow chances in cycle 3. Have only picked up one snow of around an 1”, so feeling the same frustrations as those in the KC area.

Rod
Guest
Rod

Thanks JoeK, lets hope, I checked my CoCoRaHs rainfall report & between Oct 21-23rd I logged 0.60” of rain & on the Sunday before Oct 15th picked up 1.63” of rain. Let’s hope in cycle 3 these produce with the same or greater intensity & tap into some cold air & gulf moisture.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Rod,

Not sure of your location, the 2.93″ was recorded at KCI. I do believe we stand a good chance at one of these systems breaking through and producing. I also feel that this weeks system may give us a surprise and over perform?

Rod
Guest
Rod

Does a storm around January 21st fit the LRC based on current cycle length? Just curious if a storm is due around this time or is this just another model run with errors. Saw this on a few previous runs & noticed it again today. Thanks

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2018010918&fh=276&r=conus&dpdt=

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Rod,

Yes, I believe it is the Oct 21-23rd, gave us 2.93″ , came through dry( only a trace)on Dec 6th and lines up for Jan 21st. if every other cycle mirrors itself, the current GFS could be fairly accurate on strength. Time will tell

Emaw
Guest
Emaw

I think the preferred term in media these days is “Arctic Blast” it has more punch, sounds more threatening . . .

Carl
Guest
Carl

They’re calling for snow in Columbia on Thursday. And it sure looks like we will get some precipitation. What are the chances the storm shifts south?

Richard
Guest
Richard

Man oh man. Jeff showed a HIGH of 13 next Tuesday.

Why don’t we hear the term polar vortex with these blasts this year. It is polar air, right ?
Haven’t heard that since 4 yrs ago

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

I’ve head a few tv meterologists call it that this year

Richard
Guest
Richard

Local mets ? Who

Brian watson
Guest
Brian watson

Lrc forecast rarely verify. I’ve seen countless forecasts over the last 6 years or so based on the lrc and very rarely could an objective person say they verified. A good portion of the time they are so far off that it’s hard to even make an arguement for it. There are some times when the temperature or precipitation will verify, but very rarely both. Finding a storm system near the area around Thursday doesn’t make it verify. Every single week there is some storm system coming through the plains. If it doesn’t come on the day you planned it… Read more »

sedsinkc
Guest
sedsinkc

Spot on comment, Brian watson. Gary is always massaging his cycle length to make events “fit the pattern.” What’s the supposed recognized interval for this year’s cycle, something like 43 to 51 days? It’s laughable. I’m also wondering why Gary’s talk is on the last day of the convention when folks are leaving town if it’s about the science of the LRC and not an advert for his business? The supposed cutting-edge science of the CPH as it is scientifically known should be a headliner of the convention, featured on Day 1.

Bobbie
Guest
Bobbie

The wide range of days does definitely leave room for criticism.

RobertCali
Guest
RobertCali

Seds–Snowflake mentioned above that earlier this year, Gary said he was presenting a “peer-reviewed paper” about his theory during this conference in Austin. Is that not the case any longer?

sedsinkc
Guest
sedsinkc

My understanding is Gary presented a talk in Austin on how to grow a weather blog, using the LRC-based blog of his as an example. It was not a peer-reviewed paper. I know someone whose uncle works for Gary’s company and Gary is supposedly working on a peer review paper for submission to a journal for publication.

Richard
Guest
Richard

The lrc is not for fine-tune, 5 or 7 day forecasting. Yet.
It is not a model. Yet.

My understanding is that it is for showing repeating patterns of waves, troughs, etc.

Wes
Guest
Wes

Agreed, Richard. In my opinion, the LRC is about identifying when certain upper-level features will come into play. It is excellent in doing this. You can compare what the models are suggesting to what the LRC suggests to see if the models are on the right track. The theory has been MUCH more accurate here in Texas than long-range forecasts by NOAA. The state has been colder than normal for the last month. The LRC suggested just that, and NOAA did not. The state has also seen more wintry precip than the last two seasons combined. Again, most had predicted… Read more »

Richard
Guest
Richard

Agreed

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Wes, Good post. It has been my experience that you simply cannot make or help people to see something they don’t want to and in this case, the accuracy behind the LRC. In order to understand the complexities behind the cycling pattern, one has to have a scientific background or a very open mind and willingness to spend the necessary time studying the cycles, pattern and individual results. Many on here only perform a surface analysis thus, the belief the LRC is inaccurate. I have put the LRC under trial using a test group of my friends and family the… Read more »

RobertCali
Guest
RobertCali

BW hit the nail on the head.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Wow, he may have hit the nail on the head for those that believe perception is reality and ignore the facts, but I guess all are entitled to their own opinion, facts be damned, Hurricane prediction discussion above as evidence

Wes
Guest
Wes

Gary, will your presentation on the LRC theory tomorrow be available online?

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

Whoa, GFS and NAM now showing LOW much further south, if that holds we could be in for some SNOW!!

Paul
Guest
Paul

Sarcasm???

Paul
Guest
Paul

I can’t see models

Terry
Guest
Terry
Paul
Guest
Paul

Thanks

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

10 days away! Haven’t you learned anything this year about the models 10 days away!!

Terry
Guest
Terry

10 days away dose not mean anything okay. That’s just a saying from bloggers .

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Still pleading insanity, I see.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Jeff is on now.
Only a bit of precip on Thurs.
But a 20-25 degree drop in a TWO HOUR period that morning. Jacket to thermals, parka and face mask in 2 hrs !

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

I bet Boston has had closer to 200″ of snow over past 4 winters, while KC is at 29″. How is this even possible? Never mind, if Andy Reid can blow a 18 point 2nd half lead then anything is possible

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

I was way off, clearly not numbersguy!

Boston had had over 270″ + in past 4 years
That’s 22.5 FEET of snow over past 4 years, move there if you like snow
I wouldnt move there if you paid me!

Joe
Guest
Joe

In New England and Mid Atlantic states, the Nor’easter is a snow lover’s dream. Growing up west of DC we always had at least one storm that produced 12+ inches of snow every year and occasionally would get one with 20+ inches.

Moving to KC has pretty much sucked from a snow perspective

Troy Newman
Member
Troy Newman

If anyone wants to look up past history an easy place to find information is the High Plains Climate Center. You can look up a lot of different parameters and they use cooperative observer data so there are a lot of locations to choose from. Some have incomplete data sets but most of the major reporting stations (places like Superior, NE or Concordia, KS included) have good data back 100 years or more.

Matt
Guest
Matt

Maybe you guys can answer my questions. What do we need to happen in order to start getting some action here in KC? I know before it was getting through the rid over California, then needed a few storms to “break the ice.” I feel like all that is (more or less) coming into play, but we’re still sitting with nothing. Obviously this is still fairly early in the winter season, but when do we say, “Okay, it’s not going to snow, AGAIN.” Not to start going down a negative path, I am just curious if we still have hope… Read more »

Brad
Guest
Brad

Ellis, Finney, Grant, Haskell, Kearny, Lane, Ness, Scott, and Trego The national weather service in dodge city has issued a Winter weather advisory which is in effect from midnight wednesday night to 8am thursday Timing- snow will begin in far western kansas by midnight Wednesday and then spread eastward. Snow will taper off by 8am in the hays area Snow amounts- widespread snow accumulations of an inch with localized higher amounts around 2 inches possible Winds- north winds will increase to 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 50 mph by midnight. These high winds will cause blowing and… Read more »

Randy Keller
Guest

3-6 inches for my house forecasted. west of lincoln ne

GO SOONERS!

Farmgirl
Guest
Farmgirl

I don’t think we are going to make it to 50 down south. Forecast was for 50 degrees and we are sitting at 36 and cloudy. 🙁

Eric
Guest
Eric

So no chance for that storm to move more down south and hit KC? I’m sure crazier things have happened? I know I know I’m just trying to hold onto any hope and excitement lol

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Eric,

Yes, always a chance it shifts South. We have many storms a year where the models do not pick up on a shift until the day prior or day of the system so there is always hope

Matt
Guest
Matt

Gary,

Serious question…
When was the last time KC had a stretch of boring winters like we have had lately?

Non-Serious Question…
The last several “Winter Forecasts” have been about as reliable as the Chiefs in the playoffs…at least in regards to snow fall predictions…how do you get past the frustrations of this…or does it not bother you at all?

Ravi Kondapalli
Guest
Ravi Kondapalli

I will take the misses. I hate seeing the little mixed precip which always seems to wreak havoc on the roads. Looking for a classic 3-5 inch snow storm in temperatures close to freezing. It will be a visual treat but will not impact driving around

sedsinkc
Guest
sedsinkc

Got Sept. 1 circled on my calendar, Gary. Interesting how you are equating placement of a 500mb cold core low in the eastern GOM today to a hurricane being there near the peak of hurricane season, since tropical cyclones need quiet, anticyclonic conditions at 500 mb to grow and thrive. Proximity to upper lows tends to shear tropical cyclones apart. Also, having a hurricane in the GOM on Sept. 1 is not a huge stretch. Under your scenario, with a ULL in the GOM, I would expect a hurricane if there was one to be near the Bahamas heading north,… Read more »

Snowflake
Guest
Snowflake

September 10 is the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. To ‘forecast’ a gulf hurricane for September 1 is not a particularly brave forecast.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Snowflake, Are you being serious? To forecast a storm for any specific date is incredibly difficult to do with accuracy so predicting a hurricane on or about September 1 for a specific area is pretty amazing if it comes to fruition. Consider the low number of hurricanes that actually make landfall and in some years, hardly any. With that said, if we have only 3 hurricanes hit in 2018 and one of them is September 1 in the Gulf, would that not be a pretty spectacular forecast? Not trying to be critical so please don’t take it that way, I… Read more »

RobertCali
Guest
RobertCali

“landfalling” hurricanes and hurricanes existing in the gulf are two different things. You’re right that there haven’t been many to make landfall, but we all know that if that was the LRC forecast, then any tropical system to exist in the gulf or even near (for instance, along the east coast of florida) would be chalked up as a ‘win’ for the LRC. I think what Snowflake is saying is that the odds of a tropical system in that region of the world around September 1 is relatively high, so making a forecast for that — LRC or no LRC… Read more »

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Robert, One example to disprove your opinion as stated above. From September 2013 to September 2016, how many hurricanes did the Gulf experience? I will answer it for you, NOT ONE. Almost 3 years, zero hurricanes. So if, as you and Snowflake say, predicting a hurricane September 1st in the Gulf is a given, not gutsy or basic forecasting, how do you account for the above data? The fact is, there are no such thing as “givens” regarding forecasting the weather or storms. Are there statistical probabilities? yes. Scientifically speaking, attempting to cast a specific forecast for a specific date… Read more »

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

One more fact, from 1851 to 2015, The average number of hurricanes to form in US waters during the month of September is 2.4 ( two point four) that is less than 3 hurricanes annually in the month of September. This completely nullifies the above stated arguments that predicting a hurricane during a specific time period and geography is far from routine. Perception is not reality folks

Source: NOAA Hurricane research Division Subject: TCFAQ E17)

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Here…not hear, LOL

Fred Nolan
Guest
Fred Nolan

For only having 15 comments this blog was incredibly slow to load today.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Pretty unbelievable so far. Not one inch at kshb yet.

Numbers guy,
I wonder what are the stats on winter total snowfall here, when there has been so little snow up to todays date.

numb3rsguy
Guest
numb3rsguy

I will start with the snowflake contest! Technically at the official recording site for KC, we received our first inch of snow on 12/18. with the snowflake contest location getting either 0.8″ or 0.9″ on that date. The long term average for the first inch of snow is 12/13, so really we were close to average on the timing, however, the average snowfall to date is 7.5″, and we are sitting at 2.2″ for the season. If we pretend that the snowflake measuring site on the plaza is the official for KC (instead of KCI), and assume we got 1″… Read more »

Richard
Guest
Richard

numbers
Thanks ! Very impressed with your ability to come up with those stats ! Outstanding.

Lol ! That 59-60 winter I remember it well ! Went with my dad and friends a couple of times to suicide hill in kcmo sledding.
What a winter it turned out to be. I had forgotten how we kept hoping for snow that year. You brought it all back to me.

There is hope Terry !!

It’s just that we rarely see big winter snows around here. But we can always hope !

Troy Newman
Member
Troy Newman

I wonder if those years with more than 20″ that you mentioned were wet before today’s date and it was coming as rain or if they were dry and turned wet?

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Terry were you excited about the 12Z run? That shows at most a few tenths of an inch of snow from several systems throughout the entire period. Yes, there are storms there, but none that on recent model runs are very impactful and no one single system or storm brings the one inch on the plaza to end the snowflake contest. I was just curious if you thought we were actually going to be getting a decent snow, because everyone of these on this model splits or our immediate area isn’t targeted by a direct impact from these storms. It… Read more »

Terry
Guest
Terry

watch they will change for the good.

Snowflake
Guest
Snowflake

Last summer, you mentioned on this blog that you’d be presenting your peer-reviewed paper on the LRC during this conference in Austin – can you link to it so your readers here can read it too?

Terry
Guest
JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Terry,

There is still reason to hold out hope. I personally believe we will see some snow from this storm, not sure how much. Remember the Christmas Eve storm that most lost hope in? We know how that turned out. Models finally caught on about a day before the event. It wasn’t much, but was sure pretty to watch. Hopefully, we will get lucky and experience the same thing again! Make it your birthday wish 😀

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

What’s amazing about this storm is that it’s one of the few that was able to break or maneuver around “the ridge” out west, which should be obvious with the precip that shows forming out west. It just takes that La NIna-like track to the north and does next to no digging. This is why our historical average in weak La Nina years is usually very low in snow totals.

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

Very little snow on Thursday! Love that for sure.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Naw, its a real bummer.

Tdogg
Guest
Tdogg

Have your mommy and daddy drive you to Omaha. Check out the zoo while you’re there.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Tdogg, Funny thing about all your sarcastic comments referencing Heat and Terry being kids, they are juvenile, immature and sound like they are coming from a kid so constantly calling Heat and/ or Terry out is laughable. Grow up and stop being an internet tough guy hiding behind a fake name and keyboard. This blog is educational and fun without the likes of you using it for your own personal enjoyment. Oh and one more thing, there is no such thing as anonymity in the cyber world, you may want to remember that when throwing jabs at people you know… Read more »

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

LoL…just can’t help yourself can you Tdogg?

Bluetooth
Guest
Bluetooth

Heat, youare always at war with someone….

stl78
Guest
stl78

Might b better off emailing him that question richard. Difficult to get a response here. Nice to have u back sir!

Richard
Guest
Richard

Thx stl
I like the interaction here.
I still go to the JL blog though. I like his stat charts and looping radar maps. He uses those a lot. And he puts out a very detailed but easy to understand blog.
I get that Gary focuses on the lrc because that is his baby and what this blog is all about.
But I feel JL puts out more details about immediate forecasting.

Fred
Guest
Fred

Boring.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Thanks Gary

Can we please get a down arrow. Yesterdays 127 comments almost painful to scroll.
Not as painful as storms missing us, but still painful.

stl78
Guest
stl78

Im right on the edge of this thing. Too tough to call. It could b a cold rain with some light accumulation on the back side or a slight wobble and im lookin at 6 +. Regardless, i welcome the warmth today and whatever moisture mother nature wants to throw at us.

Troy
Guest
Troy

I think that the 21″ forecast has little chance of working out now unless we get a major snowstorm at some point. I wonder if you will even hit 21″ up there with the way this weather has been behaving?

Troy Newman
Member
Troy Newman

It looks like you are in a snow drought as well. My inlaws live South of St Cloud and they have only had about 1/4 of there normal snow so far.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

Enjoy the warm weather while you can.
The forecast from the NWS says our high temperature will be 59° tomorrow, but temperatures crash on Thursday, and the high is supposed to be only 15° on Saturday. They’re showing we’ll have at least 5 days of single digit low (and one zero) temperatures after the crash.
The NWS still shows a 70% chance of snow and blowing snow on Wednesday night and Thursday, but they make several changes to their predictions each day.

Terry
Guest
Terry

In Nam we don’t trust. So when do we start believing in the Ban and Not the GFS?

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

What’s the BAN?

Terry
Guest
Terry

sorry in Nam

Richard
Guest
Richard

Terry
No need to apologize. We know what you meant. So did Heat miser.
Terry, I am curious, do you use voice prompts on your computer ? Sorry if that is too personal.
But I feel we all know you and we root for you. I hope we get a big snow !

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

No Richard, I actually had no idea what he meant. You might want to keep comments like that to yourself…they are rude. Thanks for the clarification terry.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Wasn’t meant to be rude Heat.
I apologize to you and Terry

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

HEAT FORGIVE RICHARD!!!! 😉

Richard
Guest
Richard

THANKS ROBERT !!!! 😉

Bluetooth
Guest
Bluetooth

Touchy, touchy, I thought the same thing….

Roger
Guest
Roger

That low could be another reason why we will get missed come spring and later. It will affect how much (or little) gulf moisture comes this far north and west into Kansas.