More Misses For KC

/More Misses For KC

More Misses For KC

Good morning bloggers,

The morning begins with some black ice, ice that can be deceiving. Many driveways, patios, and decks have some of this ice, and there have been around 20 crashes around KC this morning.  Conditions will improve by 10 AM as temperatures rise above freezing with sunny skies today.

DSCN4818I snapped this picture of the black ice this morning.  The driveway was covered in a thin layer of ice, and even on the treated road right off of my driveway, there was some ice in patches. So be careful if you are heading out early today.

For Kansas City, this is almost like the worst morning of the year for travel, well it is only January 8th, but now that people are back at work and it is a Monday morning, the impacts for travel are about as bad as it has been thus far this season. This is a pretty sad statement as we are experiencing this nightmare of a winter for us weather enthusiasts. This is our fourth straight winter like this around here. Could this turn around? It still can, but every single potential storm system is finding ways to miss Kansas City, and we are not alone by any means. The very boring winter season, thus far, is being shared by many other cities.  Los Angeles may be about to finally have an exciting storm system come through as we move into cycle 3 of this years LRC.  Tuesday is likely day 1 of Cycle 3 (Cycle 1:  October 7 – November 23; Cycle 2:  November 24 – January 8; Cycle 3 begins January 9th with this next storm coming into California)

  • Amarillo, TX:  Incredible!  Amarillo began this years cycling pattern with one storm producing 0.05″ of rain on October 9th after the temperature dropped from 84° on the 8th to 58° on the 9th.  Then on an 87° day, 0.01″ fell on the 13th.  IT HAS NOT RAINED SINCE. IT HAS NOT SNOWED THIS SEASON.  Amarillo, TX has a total of 0.06″ and since October 13th they have the big ZERO!
  • Dodge City, KS: Just as Incredible!  Dodge City has had 0.01″ of precipitation since this pattern began October 7th. WHAT? Are you kidding me? This is 92 days with 0.01″ and NO SNOW! Wow!
  • Wichita, KS: NO SNOW YET! Incredible Again! Wichita had 0.06″ yesterday and 1.61″ since this pattern began. 1.03″ fell in October, and this provides some hope as we begin cycle 3 of at least getting something, but there has yet to be even 0.1″ of snow in Wichita, KS this season.
  • Los Angeles, CA:  LA had 0.10″ in October in the first LRC Cycle. It rained 0.01″ in November, and 0.01″ in December. This is a total of 0.12″ in the first 92 days of this pattern. This may be about to change on Tuesday. A storm may finally sneak into Southern California and it may cause problems.

Screen Shot 2018-01-08 at 7.34.09 AM

Screen Shot 2018-01-08 at 7.39.44 AM

As Los Angeles is about to finally break through with a storm system, this same storm system is forecast to make another glancing blow or a complete miss on KC. It is something we are monitoring closely.

Precipitation Forecast Next 10 Days From The 06z GFS Model:

3

Look closely: Los Angeles is forecast to get 2-4 inches of rain. Kansas City and Wichita are forecast to receive around 0.10″ or so. Dodge City is in the 0.01″ range, and there is a hole over Amarillo. Wow!  The same pattern keeps providing miss after miss after miss.

I am heading to Austin, TX this morning and speaking on Wednesday.  Let’s see how the models come in today and we will look at the end of the wekek storm in tomorrows blog. Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to Weather2020 and join in the great discussion as we share in this weather experience.

Gary

2018-01-10T06:25:22+00:00January 8th, 2018|General|128 Comments

128 Comments

  1. f00dl3 January 8, 2018 at 8:08 am - Reply

    Storms keep missing us over and over again… the weather keeps cycling in the same pattern over and over again…

    A wise man once said doing the same thing and expecting different results is the very definition of insanity.

    • Three7s January 8, 2018 at 8:12 am - Reply

      I was going to say the same thing yet people keep on expecting different results in the SAME WEATHER PATTERN!

      • Heat Miser January 8, 2018 at 8:19 am - Reply

        Also like folks looking at models 10 days out and expecting any accuracy whatsoever, even after they are never right.

        • Clint January 8, 2018 at 8:23 am - Reply

          They have been very consistent showing us not getting snow.

          • Heat Miser January 8, 2018 at 6:00 pm - Reply

            Are you new? How many times have people come on there pointing out the models showing snow for us in ten days….many times.

            • Bluetooth January 9, 2018 at 1:06 am - Reply

              The tension with Heat is so thick you can cut it with a knife— like he’s ready to go off on someone. Another swing and a miss!!!!

        • Tdogg January 8, 2018 at 9:52 am - Reply

          Thanks for the info Robert. Get back to counting beans

      • Joe January 8, 2018 at 8:26 am - Reply

        But the 10 day forecast models keep showing “fantasy” storms…lol. A little under 7 months until training camps start.

    • Brian watson January 8, 2018 at 3:26 pm - Reply

      Except it’s weather. It will do different all the time, so there is no point in dwelling on the past. We will finally break away from this pattern eventually and see some snow in February.

  2. Anonymous January 8, 2018 at 8:18 am - Reply

    Safe travels to Austin, Gary! Such a great city! As always….thank you for your detailed weather updates and forecasts. They are my favorite way to start the day! (Well- along with a giant cup of coffee 🙂

  3. Trainman January 8, 2018 at 8:20 am - Reply

    So Gary what happens to “likley winter storm for kc”. Not to bust your chops but wow that was going out on a limb with this pattern. Hope to eat crow on my statement

    • Snowflake January 8, 2018 at 9:02 am - Reply

      I was going to ask the same thing — early last week, you put a lot of confidence on a winter storm for January 12 — this week — based not on models, but your theory. Are you still confident?

      • Gary January 8, 2018 at 9:24 am - Reply

        Snowflake,

        Think about what you are saying. You are actually saying that I predicted winter storm around January 12th, and here on January 11th there is one as expected. So, look deeper and you can see that my forecast is going to verify. Just for our location it may be another miss. My goodness, it just needs to track farther south a bit. Los Angeles is getting a twist on this storm, but KC, well, likely not. I hope to say otherwise in a day or two, but the chance of this is low.

        Gary

        • Brian watson January 8, 2018 at 3:38 pm - Reply

          Wrong is wrong. Predicting a storm and finding one on the globe does not make it correct. The Lrc is the problem, because it clouds the judgement of the people using it, with little to no results showing that it works. On occasion a forecast will be right giving some false hope back to this failed system. He would be better off with a year where he got everything completely wrong and then he would be able to let it go. Possibly. Last year’s winter forecast was called a success when 16 inches was predicted compared to 5 falling. ???? Yet there’s still people putting stock into this. I do enjoy this site so I can find out about if any models are showing snow though.

          • JoeK January 8, 2018 at 8:28 pm - Reply

            The beginning of your post says it all. wrong is wrong and your assessment is in fact wrong. Either you have not been following the LRC long or you really do not understand it. History speaks for itself, the LRC has proven very useful in accurately predicting the weather. You can debate that until the end of time however, the facts are the facts. If you are only looking at snowfall prediction, there-in-lies the problem. Predicting any amount of snow with total accuracy is virtually impossible as so many factors go into how much falls. Predicting a storm and finding one on a globe? Are you serious? Using the LRC, we learn the patterns as well as the cycles. We know when a system will impact a certain region, 30 years ago, we had no idea more than a few days out. You can criticize that which you don’t understand and is normal human behavior, but make sure you have all the facts and open your mind rather than focusing in on one detail.

        • Heat Miser January 8, 2018 at 6:01 pm - Reply

          But Gary, what could is knowing a storm will exist if you can’t predict where it will be?

          • Bluetooth January 9, 2018 at 1:08 am - Reply

            Good point, Heat!!

      • Clint January 8, 2018 at 9:47 am - Reply

        The LRC is not the problem, it’s the forecasters ability to use the LRC to forecast for a specific area that is the problem, but that being said there has been a trend to the SE so we shall see.

        • Heat Miser January 8, 2018 at 6:02 pm - Reply

          But that is everything. What could is knowing a storm will exist somewhere, but who knows where?

          • Heat Miser January 8, 2018 at 6:02 pm - Reply

            what good

      • Carl January 8, 2018 at 6:50 pm - Reply

        What he means is, there will be a storm somewhere at some point on the 12th….

  4. BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS) January 8, 2018 at 8:21 am - Reply

    777, that’s called modelitis and its the same people falling for it over and over and over, INCLUDING GARY… SMH

  5. f00dl3 January 8, 2018 at 8:22 am - Reply

    FYI – I-435 EB @ US-69 a complete stand still per police scanner and KCScout.net

  6. Rod January 8, 2018 at 8:25 am - Reply

    On a positive note I picked up 0.84” of rain in southern Boone County in Ashland. Just maybe this is a trend for cycle 3 & storms will produce over central MO & we can get more rain & hopefully a nice snowfall.

  7. sedsinkc January 8, 2018 at 8:26 am - Reply

    Interesting blog. Gary talks about the pattern doing the same thing over and over again, yet LA is about to get the first major rainfall this rainy season. How is that doing the same thing over and over again? Similar, yet different, describes the pattern and its cyclicity, assuming it is real and not an illusion. Again, for LA, an example of a flaw of using the LRC to predict specifics about storm systems from one cycle to the next. Congrats to the Chiefs on making it to the next round of the playoffs. Wait, what? Oh, never mind, it’s the Chiefs.

    • Bluetooth January 9, 2018 at 1:09 am - Reply

      It’s gonna get a whole lot worse with the chiefs now that Gruden is back!!!

  8. Urbanity January 8, 2018 at 8:30 am - Reply

    I think what is most frustrating is that the long range models don’t seem to recognize the pattern, for example, if you added up the 10 day precip forecast from the GFS every ten days we would have had several inches of precip by now. Gary’s precip map above shows some areas of KS to receive 1″ of precip to the W-NW of KC, ain’t gonna happen, but worse yet the previous maps had around an inch or precip stretching back through central and west Kansas! The models are insane.

    The GFS will zero in on this weeks storm by the end of today, I think the most recent run will probably hold true as it has come in line with the other models for a less robust system that moves quickly NE towards the Great Lakes. That blows for all of us, again, Groundhog Day winter.

    “It’s gonna be cold, it’s gonna be dry, and it’s gonna last you for the rest of your winter”.

    • Troy Newman January 8, 2018 at 9:23 am - Reply

      When I first started reading this blog one of the intriguing things to me was this cycling pattern. I have long felt the models do not do a good job of picking up on persistence. When its been doing something it often keeps doing it. The LRC seemed to explain why that happens. I think the dry years have just as much rain forecast as the wet ones but it just never seems to actually come true. The wet years it only takes a 20% chance to get rain. For those who want a cookie cutter to make forecasts with there will be disappointment. Weather is just too complicated for such a simple solution.

      • Urbanity January 8, 2018 at 11:06 am - Reply

        Weather is complex, but historical data is hugely valuable, we know in a weak-mod La Nina, with a ridge in the west and troughing in the east that most of the plains states will be dry. Yet the forecast models seem to forget these historical analog years for reference and blow up storms in the 7-10 day forecast. Most forecasters though recognize this, like the NOAA, their long range forecasts rarely coincide with model outputs unless all models agree on a long term outcome.

        Probably the worst thing that ever happened for weather enthusiasts is the public release on Tropical Tidbits (and other sites) of the forecast models.

        One last thing, if Gary ends up being way off on his snow total you can easily point to the early october rains, I believe he was unsure when the new LRC began and originally felt the early october rains could be part of the new LRC…obviously they were not.

        • MMike January 8, 2018 at 11:57 am - Reply

          There was a storm forecast by the GFS for yesterday 10 days ago, it happened. There was a storm forecast for Thursday and Friday 7 days ago and from the current data, there will be a storm at day 10. when I say a storm, a mean a storm in the plains. Location and amounts will always have to be looked at once we get close to that 10 day forecast.

          • Urbanity January 8, 2018 at 1:27 pm - Reply

            Ten days ago the GFS had snow from Denver to St. Louis at the same time of day for Jan 7-8th, yes there was a small disturbance that passed by. I live in central Kansas, GFS 10 days ago showed major snow, we did not receive a drop of moisture and there was no storm to witness. My comment was that whether we have storms or not, the pattern would indicate dryness, so for a model to predict large areas of precip, or moderate to heavy precip for the plains states indicate the models are not recognizing historical trends in weather patterns.

            • MMike January 8, 2018 at 4:21 pm - Reply

              Urbanity,

              That storm is just about to hit. Now, location and intensity may change as we get close to that day. You might not get that snow, but 50-100 miles to your north, northeast I is going to get it(track could still change)

              Plus, temperature profiles have to be worked out also from that far out.

              The storm is there and very close to your area..pretty good shot from 10 days out.

              • MMike January 8, 2018 at 4:51 pm

                The areas that received the .25-1.00 of rain in eastern KS to Central MO got that storm you mentioned. They have not been getting storms. Temp profiles from 10 days out were off by a day. Had that storm happened on Saturday, it would have been snow. But, the storm from 10 days ago for the 7th and 8th did happen, location, precip. amounts and precip. type always have to be figured out a few days prior, I’m sure you agree on that.It did rain from KS to St.Louis, so the modeled storm was there in the plains.

              • Heat Miser January 8, 2018 at 6:06 pm

                If you cant predict where a storm will hit…its not of any use. Someone from Bismark to Austin will get a storm…great.

        • Gary January 8, 2018 at 12:35 pm - Reply

          I am sitting on the airplane from KC to Austin, and have time to reflect on things. As many of you know, I don’t hold back, about the weather, Chiefs, anything. I do not spin bad forecasts into good ones, like some say. I do showcase the successes when they happen, of course. This weather pattern cycling, according to the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis, currently submitted for peer review, and named the LRC over 15 years ago by you, yes the bloggers named it, is right on schedule. Using a 1/3 harmonic of the pattern we forecasted that the cycle length would potentially be close to 45 days, and it appears this new method of finding the cycle early worked. We have to go back to previous years and test out this method. I waited until mid-November to make our first projections and forecast the winter weather in various parts of the nation. Of course we concentrated on KC. Soon, Weather2020 will be forecasting for the world, we just aren’t quite there yet, using this technology. In the winter forecast I predicted drier than average and colder than average for the winter. I also forecasted 21 inches of snow. I thought by now we would be around 10″ or so, but what has happened; shockingly everything misses KC, but as I discussed in this blog, we are far from alone in being missed. Now, some are asking if I am going to update my winter forecast snowfall total. To be perfectly honest with you I could do such a thing, but the forecast is already out there right? So, 21″ it is, it will either be right, or very, very wrong. Let’s see how it ends up as we move through March. This colder part of the cycling pattern is due back in February. There are other parts of the pattern that will produce very cold air as well. A few twists to continue to look for are the AO and NAO; will they ever dip deeper negative which would imply potential blocking, and potentially a twist in these storm systems that continue to find ways of missing KC. La Niña; will it loosen it’s grip on the pattern? There is definitely a La Niña influence, and this has not been a good one for KC. The AO and NAO are both still staying near neutral, and La Niña weakened slightly, but it is still staying consistent.

          When you use the LRC, we can make much better predictions now, than we could in November when we were still learning about this pattern. Last year we predicted a drought, but around KC it did not happen. And, yes I am concerned for at least a developing drought in the next three to four months. Hopefully it won’t materialize. Just look at this storm coming out into the plains. This would be a severe weather setup, will be a severe weather set up either in the next cycle 47 days from this week, or in the following fifth cycle in 95 days or so, so around the middle of April, and again in early June. So, these set-ups are likely to be wetter in the warm sector than they are during the winter months.

          Anyway, these are my thoughts for now, while on the airplane. The Euro just came out with a major snowstorm in southeast Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Indiana. OUCH! It is one of the storms I thought would bring KC a chance. It is not going to do it for us……..again. It’s Ground Hog Day! We are living through this together. Think about this, Amarillo hasn’t even had a dusting, Dodge City and Wichita have yet to even have a dusting. We are in a very bad pattern for us winter weather enthusiasts. I will check in later. I wish I had better news. Maybe a twist here or there will show up, but my goodness. I am defending into Austin, TX. That’s it for now.

          Gary

  9. Troy January 8, 2018 at 8:31 am - Reply

    This storm gave us the only meaningful rain of the LRC back around the10th of October. About 1.5 inches and a severe Thunderstorm warning. A lot more moisture to work with then but I did see the Hastings NWS office mentioned that we could have some Thunder on Wednesday night.

  10. Freezemiser January 8, 2018 at 8:31 am - Reply

    Maybe we should look at the models and find times (10 days out, of course) when they’re isn’t supposed to be any snow. Surely this will mean a huge snow storm! Ugh

  11. f00dl3 January 8, 2018 at 8:31 am - Reply

    Camera – I435 W @ 69 OFFRAMP http://www.kcscout.net/ – Traffic ain’t goin nowhere!

  12. Fred January 8, 2018 at 8:51 am - Reply

    Boring

  13. Snowflake January 8, 2018 at 9:03 am - Reply

    How does the LRC explain LA’s impending rains?

    Not only did they not get those rains in the first two cycles, but the flow was entirely different. It wasn’t just a slight difference; it was a dramatically different synoptic (large)-scale setup. How does the theory account for that?

    • Gary January 8, 2018 at 9:21 am - Reply

      LA got their first and only rain in this next part of the cycling pattern. One storm sneaks in there, why can’t one storm sneak in here? The frustrations are continuing to mount.

      Gary

  14. Lary Gezak January 8, 2018 at 9:05 am - Reply

    There’s no point in getting our hopes up for fantasy storms that “fit the LRC” because snow storms that fit the LRC mean they miss and come through dry or give us a flurry storm. This is beyond horrible for KC, we cannot catch a break. Four straight winters.

    • Three7s January 8, 2018 at 9:12 am - Reply

      Until I actually see a snowstorm in progress in this area, it’s not happening for me. I’ve seen enough of this pattern to know how this ends.

      • Gary January 8, 2018 at 9:17 am - Reply

        Three7s,

        This is you using the LRC well. My goodness. This next storm could become the most frustrating one of the season if we completely get missed. It’s like a home Chiefs game in the playoffs. We will lose.

        Gary

    • Gary January 8, 2018 at 9:20 am - Reply

      This storm fits the LRC about as perfectly as any storm. But, this also means KC will likely get missed again.

      Gary

      • Terry January 8, 2018 at 10:02 am - Reply

        So your giving up on this next storm Gary. Just last night on the air at 10pm your was saying how there’s a chance this could in the Snow flake contest and now your saying it’s not that was a change of your mine really fast.

        • Bluetooth January 9, 2018 at 1:10 am - Reply

          Yep, Terry, Gary changed his mind…..

    • f00dl3 January 8, 2018 at 9:14 am - Reply

      Hahah it’s like a our past administration’s health care plan. So promising but yet fails to come through. Then you realize it’s nothing more than a tax hike masqueraded.

  15. Mr. Pete January 8, 2018 at 9:13 am - Reply

    Yawn

  16. Kurt January 8, 2018 at 9:23 am - Reply

    Too bad that track of the low on Thursday can’t be about 75 miles further east before it makes a hard right turn. I feel for Dodge City and Amarillo. At least I had a wet early part of October, but since the 20th the tap shut off and can’t seem to turn on again. Less than 3/10 of an inch since then and every storm finds a way to miss. Ready for spring and hope this turns around and we don’t get crazy heat early on.

  17. MMike January 8, 2018 at 9:41 am - Reply

    Posted on Dec. 27th.

    “The 12z data from the GFS has us below freezing for the next 10 days. The GEM(Canadian) has us colder then the Arctic. Likely a tad overdone.
    Both models are dry with maybe an inch of snow here and there. Let’s see how they do for the 10 days. Overall, a dry and cold 10 days.

    10 day forecast from the GFS would put us at Jan. 6th. It shows us finally going above freezing and a big storm approaching for Jan. 7th-8th. We’ll look back once we get to that time frame”

    What happened: We stayed below freezing up until this last weekend which is what the model from this day said and we went above freezing with a storm yesterday. Everyone went above freezing yesterday and parts of SE KS and into MO had .35-up to 1.00 inch in spots. Perfect 10 day forecast.

    Then…posted on Jan. 3rd

    The 12z data today for the next 10 days:

    “Cold early in the period with temps below average for the first 3-4 days. Temps warming above freezing with a storm centered around Jan. 7th. Following that, seasonal temps with a second storm approaching around Jan. 11th or 12th. Temps around average to above average from days 6-10. Potential of (2) storms in this 10 day period along with moderating temps”

    We did indeed stay cold for the 3-4 days, Temps did warm above freezing yesterday with a storm. Temps are now forecast to go above normal for the 6-10 day frame in this 10 day set. We are also seeing a storm enter the plains this week centered around Jan. 11th. Pretty darn good from 10 days out.

    So many times people say the data is so wrong and at times it is, but, there are also many times that it is correct. Case and point, the last (2) 10 day forecasts from the GFS. This model did an excellent job on modeling the pattern.

    Urbanity,

    “I think what is most frustrating is that the long range models don’t seem to recognize the pattern, for example, if you added up the 10 day precip forecast from the GFS every ten days we would have had several inches of precip by now”

    I just proved that the GFS did indeed recognize the pattern. Yes, there were some runs that flashed this or flashed that, but, the model on most runs came back to the above forecasts that I posted. Look for trends, not specifics. Did an fantastic job on the pattern that last 20 days.

    The GFS is 2 for 2 since I started tracking actual 10 day forecasts.

  18. Terry January 8, 2018 at 9:58 am - Reply

    Gary but can we believe in the GFS 6z Precipitation outlook map for the next 10 days ? Remember it’s just one model Run.

    • Richard January 8, 2018 at 10:13 am - Reply

      Terry
      Gary is probably not here now. Remember he is going to Austin TX today.

      My feeling is he has given up on snow for your birthday. Sorry buddy

      • Bluetooth January 9, 2018 at 1:11 am - Reply

        A dry, tear soaked crumb cake indeed…..

  19. Fred January 8, 2018 at 10:33 am - Reply

    Yep, this Thursday looks like a big miss for KC.

    But, look! Another storm is on the horizon, about 10 days from now.

    They are always ten days away….always.

    • MMike January 8, 2018 at 11:51 am - Reply

      Fred,

      The storm from 10 days ago on the GFS did hit yesterday. As always, once you get closer to that actual day, fine tuning is always needed. The model 4 days later showed the the storm that will be here in the plains Thursday this week. So, the model trend for a storm is accurate, placement and amounts in your back yard will have to be fine tuned once we get to that day.

      The storm for later this week hasn’t even hit the shore yet, better info will be collected later tomorrow. So, we need to see if there is any change once it is sampled better. The current GFS is very close to producing good precip. in MO, and yes, snow. We’ll have to see how it unfolds. I wouldn’t count everyone out on this storm quite yet. Some folks in KS and MO could see some decent snows.

  20. Kurt January 8, 2018 at 10:36 am - Reply

    We need that little girl from North Carolina that was praying for snow there to give us a prayer for snow here. Heck, I’d just like actual precip of any quantity greater than 1/10 of an inch to fall to see if it can again…

    • Bobbie January 8, 2018 at 11:10 am - Reply

      I hope you get some rain come Spring. I have given up on getting much until then

  21. REAL HUMEDUDE January 8, 2018 at 11:06 am - Reply

    I had a nice 1/2″ rain fall at the farm in NW Vernon, CO. MO. Looks like the system later this week will give Western and Central KS some moisture, so that’s good news. So weird how this storm jets off to the northwest, the only way it could go to miss us!
    To those so convinced this is worst pattern ever, how did that play out the past 3 years once we went into Spring time? That’s right, we got plenty of rain. So the pattern does and WILL change with the seasons, its part of the LRC that is occurs. Mentioning a drought coming this year as likely seems painfully reminiscent of last years failed summer forecast. Lets learn from mistakes and wait until we see evidence of a drought in the warm season, lets admit a dry winter is hardly evidence of a dry upcoming year. Sorry this is not a snowy year , maybe next time

    • Richard January 8, 2018 at 11:18 am - Reply

      Humedude
      Who is mentioning drought today ?
      Gary said he has more concerns about it than he did last year.

      I think we will be ok

      • REAL HUMEDUDE January 8, 2018 at 1:09 pm - Reply

        Gary continues to mention drought, even as this storm is cutting under the ridge like they did last year that was suddenly suprising!
        I know he’s just trying to be honest, but I’m not seeing the need to even mention drought until we see how this pattern behaves with gulf moisture available to these systems. It just seems like we aren’t learning lessons from past years

  22. stl78 January 8, 2018 at 11:20 am - Reply

    Gary, will u be updating your snowfall predictions at any point this winter? My area up here appears to b right on the edge. Lets see what the Euro shows here in a few. We r well below avg for snowfall here in se mn as well. I am enjoying the 32 degrees today though!

    • Heat Miser January 8, 2018 at 6:10 pm - Reply

      You cant update snowfall predictions a few weeks into the season…that’s cheating.

    • Bluetooth January 9, 2018 at 1:12 am - Reply

      I think downgrading would me more appropriate than updating…..

  23. MMike January 8, 2018 at 11:40 am - Reply

    12z GFS 10 day forecast:

    Above average temps the first 3 days with the a storm in the plains around the 11th-12th. Following this storm potential, 4-5 days with below average temps with some arctic air. The last few days will moderate back to above average temps. Total precip for KS and MO at best .25-1.00 with the SE third of MO seeing maybe 1.25-1.50. A possible light snowfall event with a clipper around Jan. 12th-13th. Total snowfall for KS and MO per this model is 1-3 inches with a possible upside if the storm on the 11th and 12th is stronger and the track is a bit different then what is modeled currently. A possible light precip. event around day 9 or 10.

    So, above average temps for the first 3 days with arctic air/cooler then average for 4-5 days followed by another warm-up day 8-10. Average moisture per this run for the next 10 days in and around KS and MO. (remember, we only average around .003 per day, so average moisture isn’t all that much)

    • KS Jones January 8, 2018 at 1:27 pm - Reply

      You misplaced a decimal point. KC gets an average of 0.037″ per day in January (not 0.003″).
      I’ll be looking forward to that warmup on day 8 of that ten-day forecast.
      The NWS forecast shows a high of 57° on Wednesday, followed by a high of 25° Thursday (a 32° drop).
      The NWS predicts low temperatures will be 6° Thursday & Friday night and 3° Saturday night.

      • MMike January 8, 2018 at 2:32 pm - Reply

        KSJones,

        Thank you!

        Still not a lot, huh?

        You might get into that snow late Wednesday into Thursday…we’ll see. It’s close on the latest data set.

  24. Rred95 January 8, 2018 at 11:55 am - Reply

    Can’t wait for a new LRC next fall!! 4th year in row I’ve said that. Problem is gets more boring each year.

  25. Wes January 8, 2018 at 12:23 pm - Reply

    Hi, Gary! I really appreciate you taking the time to do these discussions. I have been following the LRC theory for years, and I enjoy talking to others about it. I have been monitoring the mid-week system, and I was wanting to get your thoughts on this if you have some time. Is this mid-week system part of the pattern that we saw early in the third week of November? Based on a roughly 47-51 day cycle, the start of the next cycle would not be until around January 14-18th. The models such as the GFS and Canadian have recently picked up on a low moving into the Southern Plains around the 16th, much like what we saw on November 28-29th and back in early October. I am wondering if this system the models are beginning to pick up on may not be the start of the third cycle. Thanks.

    • Gary January 8, 2018 at 12:53 pm - Reply

      Wes,

      Thank you for participating today. The cycle is most likely right around 47 to 48 days, so cycle 3 begins this week. This Tuesday-Thursday set up is so like October 7th. If LRC Day 1 is agreed upon to be October 7th, then 47 to 48 days later would be around November 24th to 26th or so, if I am doing my math right while typing on the plane. It all lines up with what is happening now, and the double harmonic, or 94 days or so lines up the best. We have noticed that every other cycle lines up will quite often.

      And, bloggers, my goodness, I wish we had exciting storm systems to compare and not just always these misses. It is just a shame, but can we do anything about it? I did not think it was going to be this bad. The snowflake contest continues for crying out loud. We still haven’t had an inch on the Plaza.

      Now, it gets even harder when the snow inches closer. I just looked at the day 8 Euro model, and it has a 1-2 inch snow over most of Kansas early next week, but KC is not in it. Incredible.

      Have a great day!

      Gary

  26. Austin Braddock January 8, 2018 at 1:03 pm - Reply

    Look at this video of Fairbanks Alaska. https://youtu.be/bJqMN_hH6zI

  27. LYITC41 January 8, 2018 at 1:23 pm - Reply

    Why would anyone wish for a weather condition that’s dangerous, miserable, and inconvenient? (Snow) Like wishing for severe weather. The rain Sunday was perfect, got a little moisture but no winter miseries. You weather “enthusiasts” can have the snow just give me cold and dry.

  28. Urbanity January 8, 2018 at 1:34 pm - Reply

    MMike is trying to convince us all that the long term GFS is accurate, no offense to MMike, but is anyone buying that? Look, all the models know that storm systems are constantly moving across the globe, and models know the speed and general direction/location they are likely to traverse. My challenges to the long term GFS (all models) is their inability to recognize the impact of weather patterns on precipitation events more than 5-6 days out. A 10 day GFS forecast can only tell you there is a storm in the flow, or there is a setup that may produce a storm in the flow, but that is all it knows.

    • Clint January 8, 2018 at 2:12 pm - Reply

      It’s been very good. I agree with most everything he said.

    • MMike January 8, 2018 at 2:28 pm - Reply

      Urbanity,

      Totally agree. But a model from 10 days out showing a warm-up or cool down isn’t helpful to us? There is no way it can pin down a total amount or direct path a storm will take. You can’t use them for that at that range.

      I posted what the GFS showed and it nailed the storm in the plains from 10 days out, it modeled the first above freezing day in 15 days for Sunday(yesterday) it modeled 10 days of below freezing weather, it trended towards a warm-up this week( it started today) and from 10 days out it showed the storm that will be in the plains later this week.

      Too many people use them for exact forecasts, you have to use them for trends, potential stormier set-ups, and pattern changes. My point of posting the (2) 10-day GFS forecasts was to show if it was accurate on the trends, not the specific outcomes. My posts prove that the GFS did an excellent job on the last (2) 10-day forecasts.

      I posted the trends on the 12z GFS today, let’s see if the modeled trends and storms are accurate or close to in 10 days.

    • Kurt January 8, 2018 at 2:32 pm - Reply

      As much as I don’t want to agree, MMike is right from the standpoint that the GFS predicts a storm in the region, just not the specific and accurate track 10 days out and it has been pretty good with the temp profiles. What the GFS can’t do is predict exact precip in any one location, nothing can do that except God? Which I think was his point that you are making Urbanity, the GFS knows there is a storm in the flow, the exact tracks and amounts aren’t known accurately 10 days out (just the general direction). With that said, still sucks to get the lowest rain and snow total on a fairly consistent basis with each event.

      • Heat Miser January 8, 2018 at 3:04 pm - Reply

        Which is fairly useless to any one in any location. “There will be a storm somewhere in the middle of the country. Huh, how about in your city? LoL..who the hell knows?”

        • Kurt January 8, 2018 at 4:00 pm - Reply

          Yes, you are correct MMike did say the forecast needs fine tuning the day of the event. In my specific instance an 80% percent chance of freezing rain and sleet was really 100%, but it was only .01, so it’s very stingy on mother nature to only give me .01 that did basically nothing for the dryness. Don’t recall the ground ever being so powdery on the top, when the winds pick up there will be lots of blowing dust up here.

      • MMike January 8, 2018 at 4:44 pm - Reply

        Kurt,

        Exactly. Can’t take them at face value only take them for the trends. Urbanity mentions the GFS showed a storm 10 days ago with snow from KS to St.Louis, well, that storm is there Wednesday into Thursday. The finer details are being worked out, but it will produce a storm. Now, is it in the exact spot it showed 10 days ago, nope, but it’s pretty darn close. Urbanity is actually probably going to see some rain over to snow out of it.

        Urbanity,

        “My challenges to the long term GFS (all models) is their inability to recognize the impact of weather patterns on precipitation events more than 5-6 days out”

        So the bone dry California that is about to receive 2-4 inches of rain(desperately needed) doesn’t apply to that statement? The low snow total that Omaha has which is in line(currently with the data) to get 6 inches of snow doesn’t apply either. They have been storm less up that way also. European model has a monster snow storm in St. Louis later this week(we’ll see) they haven’t had anything either.

        GFS did just come out with an inch of snow Thursday for KC, still some fine tuning to these troughs coming into the plains. I think you might actually do well out your way for a change. We will know in 72 hours!

        • Urbanity January 8, 2018 at 7:17 pm - Reply

          We can agree to disagree, my point was simply that the models have notoriously shown several inches of precip on the 10 day forecast periods for months and it rarely verifies, the reason being they are not recognizing the similar weather patterns from the past, nor are they recognizing the LRC, in this case the pattern of the LRC is a huge western ridge and a huge Eastern Canada trough. That particular setup for whatever reason produces very little moisture in the plains states.

          Your statement that they models do recognize systems well in advance is true in many cases, not always, but to recognize there is a system in the flow is child’s play in the grand scheme of weather, the ability to know the likely outcome based on certain analogs from similar weather patterns in the past is where the meat hits the grill.

          But enough about that, I hope you are right MMike in that we receive some precip…I don’t care what form at this point. The lastest GFS is taking the low pressure from Wichita to west of Green Bay, a very sharp turn to the north, I’ve seen the sun shine all day in our area from previous storms when a low heads north anywhere near salina.

    • Heat Miser January 8, 2018 at 3:10 pm - Reply

      Accuweather says snow and sleet for us on Thursday! WOO HOO!!!! TAKE THAT TO THE BANK! 😉

      • KS Jones January 8, 2018 at 5:05 pm - Reply

        For here from the NWS
        Wednesday Night: Rain likely before 3am, then snow likely. . . Chance of precipitation is 70%.
        Thursday: A 40 percent chance of snow before noon.

        For KC
        Thursday: A chance of rain showers before 9am, then a chance of snow showers and freezing rain between 9am and 11am, then a chance of snow showers after 11am. . . Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

  29. f00dl3 January 8, 2018 at 1:57 pm - Reply

    So it looks like all the models are fairly set in stone right now that it misses us to our west. Euro, GFS, and NAM. Even the Canadian which is always bullish keeps all the snow north and west of I-35. This one is set in stone and you guys can write it off as another miss.

    • Steve January 8, 2018 at 2:03 pm - Reply

      Is this for the Thursday storm?

    • Heat Miser January 8, 2018 at 3:04 pm - Reply

      LoL…did you really just say “models” and “set in stone” in the same sentence? That is hilarious!

    • Terry January 8, 2018 at 3:23 pm - Reply

      maybe not

    • Terry January 8, 2018 at 3:38 pm - Reply

      The GFS 18z now coming out and will see if it’s set in stone. I’ll post it soon

    • JoeK January 8, 2018 at 5:47 pm - Reply

      Foodl,

      I am a bit surprised to hear that you think the models are set in stone. If it is one thing I have learned about the models, it is that there is almost always a shift in one direction or another that could be 50 miles, 100 miles or more. I have been watching and comparing the accuracy of models for years and even the day prior to the event, there is generally some change. If we are riding the edge of a storm, these “wobbles” can be fairly important.

  30. f00dl3 January 8, 2018 at 2:04 pm - Reply

    Yes

  31. Snow Miser January 8, 2018 at 2:43 pm - Reply

    All the models now show Thursday’s storm to be going out of their way to avoid Kansas City. It’s a conspiracy!

    • Adam January 8, 2018 at 2:57 pm - Reply

      Terry is going to be so upset. I wonder how much longer he is going to “stick” with his 18-23 inches. Oh ya, its only early winter, so much time left, etc. JUST WAIT GUYS ITS GONNA SNOW SO MUCH THIS WINTER!!

      • Heat Miser January 8, 2018 at 3:05 pm - Reply

        LoL…Oh Adam, the point isn’t that there will be a lot of snow or there won’t be. The point is none of us really know which it will be.

        • Heat Miser January 8, 2018 at 3:07 pm - Reply

          Why you might ask? Well, because we don’t have the ability to predict snowstorms in KC more than two or three days out…sometimes not even one or two days out.

  32. Anonymous January 8, 2018 at 3:07 pm - Reply

    I’m sure you all have heard of Mr. Vincent Schaefer who successfully made it snow in his laboratory in 1946? The. Successfully making it snow by releasing 6lbs of dry ice into a cloud. Here’s a link to read on if anyone is interested.

    http://www.nytimes.com/1993/07/28/obituaries/vincent-j-schaefer-87-is-dead-chemist-who-first-seeded-clouds.html

    Also, here is a YouTube video of him doing his lab experiment with dry ice and at the end, using the dry ice in the cloud to make it snow.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2D5s2FlA_5k

    So really, what we Kansas Citians need to do is have someone fly their airplane into some clouds for a few miles or so and release dry ice or silver iodine into the clouds and if successful, we could have some snow here in and around Kansas City. I think doing it west of here is what would need to be done for it to snow (or even rain) downstream to impact KC.

  33. Tdogg January 8, 2018 at 3:18 pm - Reply

    GoFundMe for Heat and Terry going up soon. We have to take them North to see snow. After that we can take them to the NWS in Pleasant Hill so they can discuss the various models with them and basically get them to only go out 24 hrs. But, we only 3 weeks into winter now lmao!

    • Bluetooth January 9, 2018 at 1:14 am - Reply

      Hahahahaha…..

    • Richard January 8, 2018 at 4:29 pm - Reply

      That can’t be right. It shows rain here, but we are only going to be in the 20’s.
      Or is that model showing Wed night/early Thursday before temps tank ?

      • Brad January 8, 2018 at 5:50 pm - Reply

        I believe the NAM is showing wednesday night into thursday before temps crash, its been pretty consistent then the GFS and mostly Canadian i think…

  34. Roger January 8, 2018 at 4:40 pm - Reply

    According to the Dodge City NWS Forecast Discussion issued at 2:52 PM. “It’s been 93 days (soon to be 96) with only 0.01″ of precipitation in Dodge City and we may receive a few hundredths out of this system if we get lucky.” Just priming the pump guys. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=DDC&issuedby=DDC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

  35. Troy Newman January 8, 2018 at 4:52 pm - Reply

    So here is what I have to choose from for my location. The 18Z GFS says 1-2″, the Euro 4″, and the NAM 14″ snow. It looks like a very intense band of precip but its only 40 miles wide and we are going from the 40s to the 20s with temps so there are a lot of variables. How much snow vs rain, where does the banding take place etc. Then the GFS dumps another storm in behind that seems to hit a wide area with 2-5″ of snow on Friday??

    • stl78 January 8, 2018 at 5:04 pm - Reply

      Where u located troy?

      • Troy Newman January 8, 2018 at 6:56 pm - Reply

        NW Republic County. About 35 miles NW of Concordia, KS.

        • stl78 January 8, 2018 at 7:26 pm - Reply

          Ok thx troy

  36. MMike January 8, 2018 at 4:53 pm - Reply

    Roger,

    LOL. Man, that’s hard to imagine but it is happening out there.

  37. MMike January 8, 2018 at 5:06 pm - Reply

    18z GFS just came out with a very cold look to the pattern and 6-10 inches of snow over the next 2 weeks for many folks across KS and MO. It was bit of a dream run..most active GFS run for some time.

    I know, it’s impossible for any weather to change.

    Back loaded winter here we come.

    LRC winter forecast: Drier then average….check / colder then average…. check/ 21 inches of snow…it’s on it’s way!

  38. Choppy January 8, 2018 at 6:29 pm - Reply

    I thought around 15th-16th of this month a flame thrower was coming through January?

    • Troy Newman January 8, 2018 at 7:29 pm - Reply

      Very good article. I watched a show about how the Sahara turns from wet to dry every several thousand years. I think people trying to characterize weather and/or climate as “normal” struggle to understand that we have averages but not really normal.

  39. ClassyCat January 8, 2018 at 8:00 pm - Reply

    Why is it when a snowstorm is forecast to hit western Kansas, or Omaha, or Des Moines; or even Minneapolis it seems like there are no where near as many misses as when a snowstorm is forecast to hit KC? When it’s forecast to hit those places it seems like it almost always does. Is it my imagination? I know those places are devoid of snow this year so far too, but I’m referring to historical forecasts. Anyone?

    • Richard January 8, 2018 at 8:08 pm - Reply

      Good question !

    • JoeK January 8, 2018 at 8:37 pm - Reply

      Classycat,

      I have often wondered the same thing. I know Gary has discussed ( and other Mets) how our region is the most difficult area to forecast the weather for many reasons. I believe it has something to do with the same reason we are considered Tornado Alley. The Midwest and more specifically, our area, is a convergence zone

    • Troy Newman January 8, 2018 at 9:00 pm - Reply

      If you lived out here it would seem like you get missed a lot too. The reality is a lot of these snow storms have a very narrow path of accumulation and it takes a lot of luck to get right in the middle of it. Sometimes you get a really large system that covers a fairly broad area but that hasn’t been the case this year at all.

  40. TonganoxieSplit January 8, 2018 at 8:27 pm - Reply

    What do the chinese models say?

    • Urbanity January 9, 2018 at 8:19 am - Reply

      lol

  41. Richard January 8, 2018 at 8:55 pm - Reply

    Gary
    Hear you on 810 this morning. 13 minutes they let you rant. I got a big kick out of it. Agreed with everything you said.
    You briefly ranted about the calls.
    Guess he could not bring hisself to face angry crowd at Arrowhead next year.
    “After several controversial calls in the Kansas City Chiefs season-ending loss to the Tennessee Titans Saturday, referee Jeff Triplette has announced his retirement.”

    Wonder why

  42. Brad January 8, 2018 at 9:02 pm - Reply
  43. Brad January 8, 2018 at 9:03 pm - Reply
  44. Dave LS January 8, 2018 at 9:21 pm - Reply

    Has there ever been a year the snowflake context didn’t end? Just wondering.

    • Urbanity January 9, 2018 at 9:40 am - Reply

      In Wichita, ks the last two years.

  45. Rod January 8, 2018 at 11:26 pm - Reply

    This is for you Terry & all the others wanting snow. Big storm around Sunday Jan 21st, I know over 10 days out & models are loaded with errors but we can all dream.
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

  46. Richard January 9, 2018 at 10:20 am - Reply

    Can we please get a down arrow

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