Minor Icing Early Today, Then Just Wet

/Minor Icing Early Today, Then Just Wet

Minor Icing Early Today, Then Just Wet

Good Sunday bloggers,

From one of our bloggers:

“How is it that precipitation is already starting well east of here? Furthermore, temperatures haven’t been above freezing for that long, so how can the ground warm above freezing quickly enough to not freeze any liquid that falls on surfaces that were subjected to the freezing cold for 15 days? Given the angle of the sun, and the fact it is a cloudy day and not a clear and sunny one, would really like to know how all of this is setting up so perfectly as to keep us citizens super safe from evil Mother Nature. Go!”

Great questions. Jeff Penner just wrote up this blog which provides the answers. Let me address one of the questions. The rain is falling from areas above the ground that are now above freezing, so the water falling from the sky, the rain drops, is around 35 to 36 degrees as it hits the ground. This will in turn warm the surfaces and prevent any major icing. but, some ice is still likely due to how cold it has been. It should be short lived. That air temperature near the surface is much more important than the ground temperature. If it were just 32 or 33 we may see some icing, but it warmed to 36 to 38 degrees this morning.

Here is Jeff’s blog entry!  

South winds overnight have taken our temperatures to the mid and upper 30s. This has put an end to the ice threat. A few north facing surfaces may see some ice for a few hours this morning, but we are looking at mostly wet conditions today. The other part of the story is the rainfall. Some locations today will see beneficial rain.

Also, one other item. Tonight the sky will clear allowing temperatures to drop to the 20s along with poor drying conditions. So, locations that receive a decent amount of rain will be susceptible to black ice, especially after midnight. The current salt on the roads will be washed off, so new treatment may be needed.

Here were the 730 AM temperatures. It is basically above freezing in all of the viewing area.

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The Winter Weather Advisory has been cancelled for the KC area, and to be perfectly honest locations to the northeast will not have a huge issue as temperatures are warming their as well. Again, north facing surfaces will have the best chance for slick spots.

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Let’s go through the forecast.

SUNDAY NOON: Rain will be widespread, mostly along I-35 and east with temperatures above freezing. If there is any icing it will be located in northeast and east Missouri.

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SUNDAY 6 PM: The rain will be mostly over and well to the east with temperatures in the mid 30s. Surfaces will be wet to damp.

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MONDAY 7 AM: This is when we could see some ice as any leftover water could re-freeze. The sky will clear after 10 PM to midnight from northwest to southeast allowing temperatures to drop to the 20s. The salt on the roads prior to the rain will have been washed off by this time.

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The other big story is the rainfall as it has been so ridiculously dry since October 23rd. KC has seen just 0.46″ of rain which is 4.15″ below average.

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Today, KC may see as much rain that has fallen since October 23rd with amounts around or higher than 0.40″. Locations to the southeast may see .50″ to .75″. Unfortunately, locations to the northwest, especially far northwest Missouri may not see much rain at all.

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Have a great week ahead and enjoy the rain!

Jeff Penner

2018-01-08T09:00:21+00:00January 7th, 2018|General|111 Comments

111 Comments

  1. Clint January 7, 2018 at 8:25 am - Reply

    Listening to Jeff on TV this morning it doesn’t sound like KC will have a major snow storm on Thursday.

    • Joe January 7, 2018 at 9:38 am - Reply

      Shouldn’t come as a surprise

    • Heat Miser January 7, 2018 at 10:18 am - Reply

      I don’t think anyone ever said there’d be a major snowstorm on Thursday.

      • Richard January 7, 2018 at 11:32 am - Reply

        Heat miser, Robert !
        Ha !
        Going over to JL furry animal blog, saying we’re only a couple weeks into winter.
        Your mantra is noted.

        I hope we get a blizzard then you can rightfully say I told you so.

        • Heat Miser January 7, 2018 at 12:05 pm - Reply

          😉 LoL Richard…busted.

          • Tdogg January 7, 2018 at 1:20 pm - Reply

            Do you go by Rob?

  2. NoBeachHere January 7, 2018 at 8:36 am - Reply

    Curious as to what this is falling from the sky? I read where you call it rain?

    Sunday Morning humor

  3. Freezemiser January 7, 2018 at 8:40 am - Reply

    I’m ready to give up! Moisture but not cold. Ugh.

  4. Clint January 7, 2018 at 8:42 am - Reply

    Listening to Jeff’s forecast I get the feeling that there will be no major snow storm on Thursday for Kansas City as was predicted

    • Anonymous January 7, 2018 at 9:41 am - Reply

      If so, does that mean we can trust the GFS well past 2, 3, or 5 days out at least because it’s been showing big papa poof since days ago 👌🏻

      • Heat Miser January 7, 2018 at 12:06 pm - Reply

        We all know the weather models are almost always wrong about storms for KC that far out, so it didn’t really mean much of anything at all to start with.

  5. Clint January 7, 2018 at 8:42 am - Reply

    Sorry for the double post

  6. Anomynous January 7, 2018 at 8:55 am - Reply

    Poof!

  7. REAL HUMEDUDE January 7, 2018 at 8:57 am - Reply

    Andy Reid is the most incompetent postseason coach in modern professional sports history let alone the NFL. Embarrassed to be a Chiefs fan

    • Clint January 7, 2018 at 9:39 am - Reply

      I’m with you his offense is out dated I don’t want him coaching Mahomes.

    • Three7s January 7, 2018 at 10:08 am - Reply

      The instant I saw Kelce go out with a concussion, I knew the game was over, even with the last second TD at the half. The offense was dreadful in the 2nd half and Kelce being out was probably why. Double-team Hill, stack the box for Hunt, man up on the other ordinary receivers. If Chris Jones didn’t get hurt, the Chiefs MIGHT have slowed down the Titans enough to out-last them, but it would’ve resulted in a beat-down next round anyway.

      The fact that it takes merely one player going out to cripple this offense is an indictment on the depth of this team and the inability of the coaching staff to prepare for situations like that.

  8. Phillip January 7, 2018 at 9:01 am - Reply

    Nice to see some beneficial rain here in grain valley ☺️☺️

    • Terry January 7, 2018 at 9:09 am - Reply

      I Agree with you some things don’t need to be on hear.

  9. Phillip January 7, 2018 at 9:02 am - Reply

    Humedude go to fb with that crap

  10. Terry January 7, 2018 at 9:07 am - Reply

    Things could get very Interestimg so watch Thursday!

    • Clint January 7, 2018 at 9:41 am - Reply

      For Omaha yes.

  11. Lary Gezak January 7, 2018 at 9:21 am - Reply

    The “likely KC winter storm” turns out to be a flop, as does every other storm

    • Terry January 7, 2018 at 9:48 am - Reply

      we have to watch Thursday storm . As Gary would say .

      • Three7s January 7, 2018 at 10:09 am - Reply

        Yeah, those wrap-around flurries could be devastating.

        • Terry January 7, 2018 at 10:16 am - Reply

          Maybe more than that

      • Joe January 7, 2018 at 10:14 am - Reply

        Isn’t Gary down in Austin giving a presentation on how to run a successful weather blog this week…i.e. how to drive web traffic for a weather blog?

        • Bluetooth January 7, 2018 at 6:38 pm - Reply

          How appropriate–turning a nothing burger into a something burger that will ultimately go poof, poof, poof, and another swing and a miss……

  12. BSMike January 7, 2018 at 9:27 am - Reply

    Heavy rain on radar just to southwest , hope it holds together.

  13. BSMike January 7, 2018 at 9:29 am - Reply

    Gary,

    Do you consider this breaking the ice, what is your ideal measurement?

  14. Carl January 7, 2018 at 9:29 am - Reply

    We won’t see any major snow storms this winter. I would be surprised if we see any event drop over .5″ of snow. In terms of the forecast, accuracy of winter forecasts is virtually impossible. Last night weather bug had 100% chance of freezing rain and winters mix, now 30% which translates to zero.

  15. Kurt January 7, 2018 at 9:41 am - Reply

    I’m so ready for the ice to break up here, this dryness is ridiculous

  16. Anonymous January 7, 2018 at 9:46 am - Reply

    Which model does intellicast use? I have their storm app and it showed Indep Mo went from 35 around 7:30/8am now down to 33. Also showing lees summit at 32. Are these temperatures accurate? Precip still liquid outside which is good. To hell with all the salt on the road. Glad it’s being rinsed with this winter rain

  17. Janette Miller January 7, 2018 at 9:57 am - Reply

    Everything out here in Lee’s Summit is a solid sheet of ice…not thick, but enough that nearly all surfaces are slick, and not just north-facing surfaces. I took the dog out and there are sirens going everywhere, I’m sure for accidents on the roads. Confuses me why NWS canceled the WWA, at least for a while this morning. It gives people the sense that nothing is going on anymore, and clearly that is not the case. All the flipping back and forth, but then it really IS slick, seems to put folks in danger…some people really do go by those warnings. They hear it might be bad, then they hear it is canceled and think there is no ice…clearly there is. I just don’t get it.

  18. BSMike January 7, 2018 at 10:00 am - Reply

    So if it were all snow this would be a 6-10 incher !!!

    • Lary Gezak January 7, 2018 at 10:02 am - Reply

      I know, right… middle finger in the face from Mother Nature

    • Bluetooth January 7, 2018 at 6:39 pm - Reply

      Mike, that’s correct, but, a poof, poof, none the less…..

  19. Kurt January 7, 2018 at 10:06 am - Reply

    Wow all that rain would be amazing here, and Thursday should track north, frustrations continue to play as fit that same period posted by Jeff since August 1st is a minus nine inches here

  20. Kurt January 7, 2018 at 10:07 am - Reply

    Meant to stay frustrations continue as for the same time period we are well below normal for both those time periods

  21. Three7s January 7, 2018 at 10:13 am - Reply

    Gary said yesterday that he didn’t know how this isn’t a snowstorm in this setup. This is the exact kind of storm that would’ve blasted us in the past that simply don’t anymore. Why? I want to say it’s because this area gets too warm too easily. I know it sounds weird after the arctic temps we’ve been dealing with, but really, that’s a different story entirely. When this area gets a flood of moisture in from the gulf, which is a MUST for snowstorms around here, that’s going to bring in warm air. The difference between the past and now is that when that warm air comes in, it becomes TOO warm. It just doesn’t work in this area anymore.

    • Anonymous January 7, 2018 at 11:04 am - Reply

      HAARP

      • Heat Miser January 7, 2018 at 12:07 pm - Reply

        Oh stop.

        • Bluetooth January 7, 2018 at 6:41 pm - Reply

          HAARP, POOF, Haarp, Poof, hAARP, pOOf, … and another swing and a miss!!!!!

  22. Phillip January 7, 2018 at 10:18 am - Reply

    Are we really expecting the warmest temps today to come around sunset and after? My driveway and steps to my front door have ice all over then and the trees have frozen droplets on them too still

    • Anonymous January 7, 2018 at 11:05 am - Reply

      And you live where?

      • Phillip January 7, 2018 at 12:23 pm - Reply

        Grain valley/oak grove… only 33° here?

  23. Terry January 7, 2018 at 10:18 am - Reply

    getting a little icy in WY on sidewalks now !

  24. Adam January 7, 2018 at 10:32 am - Reply

    Terry, are you stoked for the huge snowstorm on Thursday???

    • Three7s January 7, 2018 at 10:37 am - Reply

      Flurrystorm*

      • Bluetooth January 7, 2018 at 6:43 pm - Reply

        Huge snow storm Thursday–biggest ever!!!–Heat, Terry, Miser, who else wants to get on this train before it’s too late???

  25. stl78 January 7, 2018 at 10:36 am - Reply

    My garage door finally started workin. Im sure its because we warmed to double digits finally. We may make a brief surge above freezing before the next system approaches. Still a ton of uncertainties even up in this neck of the woods. Hope u guys get some quality moisture! Sorry bout your chiefs. Maybe u can throw some love at the vikes! Have a great sun!

    • Three7s January 7, 2018 at 10:39 am - Reply

      Nothing to feel sorry about. The Chiefs are the worst playoff team in NFL history and most fans have become immune to their playoff losses to the point of simply not caring about the team one way or another.

    • KS Jones January 7, 2018 at 1:31 pm - Reply

      What is it that causes garage door openers to go on the fritz during cold weather?
      Ours began acting up this winter too. It opens about 16″ and stops, but after six or so attempts I’ve managed to get it to open all the way.
      It is 45° here right now, so no problems, and it was actually warm enough (since Christmas) to hose the salt off of our vehicles.
      The NWS shows we’ll have a major change back to cold on Thursday.
      Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 56.
      Wednesday Night: A chance of rain before 2am, then a chance of snow after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
      Thursday: A 30 percent chance of snow before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 25. Blustery.
      Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 6. Blustery.

    • Bluetooth January 7, 2018 at 6:44 pm - Reply

      STL, it’s been great here in the tropical west pacific…80’s and 90’s, nice breeze, the ocean is beautifull!!

  26. Kurt January 7, 2018 at 10:58 am - Reply

    Chiefs and weather both dissapointing. I don’t understand other than the two injuries how as a team they can’t ever come together to protect their lead or get a win. Is there a mentality that needs to change? You’ve got to want the win and a ultimate super bowl victory more than your opponent. Why can’t KC get over the hump? This has been a plus 30 year history of nut being able to close the game or get to the big game. It’s just sad as there aren’t any other teams I want to root for.

    I’d rather break the less than 1/10 of an inch of rain in a storm drought first, surely that’s more likely than a chiefs playoff win?

    • Roger January 7, 2018 at 11:41 am - Reply

      I feel your pain Kurt. Man I feel your pain. All this buildup, and nothing to show for it.

  27. Mr. Pete January 7, 2018 at 11:04 am - Reply

    The last of the magical Christmas snow is slowly melting away in my back yard. Almost all gone now.

  28. Roger January 7, 2018 at 11:37 am - Reply

    Just a few sprinkles affecting Wichita with NOTHING north and West. Sigh…..

  29. Kurt January 7, 2018 at 11:41 am - Reply

    Ok, I love the 12z GFS, but 3.5 inches of QPF between now and the 23rd? That would totally wipe out the deficit since mid October. That heavy precip has been somewhere on every model run. Is that forecast in ice though????

  30. Bill in Lawrence January 7, 2018 at 11:57 am - Reply

    Gary:
    Happy Sunday to you sir!! Have a great trip to Austin!!!

    Well….I’m going to eat my crow here…I thought I would receive between .25-.50 at my locale based on what this storm did on November 18th but looking at the radar, it looks like Ottawa (a mere 12 miles from my house) will receive that while wind up with loser to .10. Oh well, such is weather here in Kansas. If this were a snow storm, I would be one frustrated dude. Bladwin and Ottawa could have close to 5 inches and I would barely have a dusting. Not the first time we have had this scenario nor will it be the last.

    I have to respectfully disagree that we are today seeing more issues with warmer air messing with snow storms than in the past. There are countless set ups for this area that I remember as a kid that were ruined due to warmer air coming into the area. I will recount a couple here. 1981….we were supposed to have 6-10 inches of snow….would up with nothing but rain. January 1984….coming on the heels of a 7 inch snow, we were supposed to have another 4-8 inches just 4 days later. Snow pack and all were wiped out in 5 hours as the whole event turned to rain. December 1987…Lawrence received 8 inches of snow on a Monday….by Friday, we were in a near flooding rain event. My favorite was 2004….NWS was forecasting 16-18 inches of snow 12 hours before the event was to start and at 12 hours before the event was to start it was minus 2 degrees outside. By the time the precip started it was 29 with some sleet then quickly warmed to 35 with rain….we were at minus 2 at 6:00 A.M…..by 6 PM it was 35 and raining. We are located on the 39th parallel…we will always have issues with warm air intrusion. 12 hours of a south wind can wipe out 2 weeks of below freezing temperatures and a snow pack in nothing flat here. It is the nature of where we live. We need to have a fresh cold air mass that hopefully still has the anchor high pressure area still in the Dakotas keeping it fresh. This was an 8 day cold air mass which was not really refreshed since last weekend…it did not stand a chance with any kind of southerly flow. If this low had come across on Thursday or maybe even on Friday or if the precip could have started yesterday afternoon we may have been okay…..but you can’t expect a 10 day old cold air mass to survive 12 hours of southerly wind flow…..not here. Just my thoughts based upon 5 decades of watching winter storms die here….of course there are some that hit, but more often than not, they either turn to sleet or even just plain rain or the entire thing tracks north or south of us. The worse thing as a kid was hearing Dan Henry or Fred Broski saying steady or slowly rising temps…and that was said at least 5 times every winter.

    So, now that cycle 2 is coming to an end I will actually take a second and defend it a bit. For cycle 2, I have received close to .55 of qpf….2 inches of snow….15 out of 16 days where the temperature never rose above freezing. Compared to last year’s cycle 2, I will take this cycle 2 every day of the week and twice on Sundays. We actually had a 15 day stretch of winter….all lakes frozen over….snow on the ground for 12 days…..ice skating…ice fishing….last cycle 2 we had 2 days of cold then the 40’s or 60’s for the rest of the time. Would I have liked more moisture and snow…of course….but I will take this and say thank you very much. I fully realize most will not agree with me and I for sure understand that….but in reading diaries from the 1840’s-1870’s there were some very warm and snowless winters here….this has led me to really temper my expectations of winter here.

    I honestly wonder if instead of saying why doesn’t it snow here more, we should be asking how does even snow here at all. We have 4 warm air sources here and just one cold air source…if a storm wobbles even 50 miles one direction or another it could mean nothing or all rain…combine that with some of the weather observations from the 1800’s and the fact that we have averaged 17-21 inches over the past 100 or so years makes me wonder if the past 100 years is not really the anomaly and that 12-14 inches a year is not really the true norm. Of course we can have snow here and if the LRC is perfect we can have a lot of snow….but if you really look at all the factors, our data set may really be the one that is the outlier if we could look at this over a 200-300 year time frame. Like the Delaware told Charles Robinson when he first arrived from New England….winter is harsh here about once in every 7 years; besides that, it is warm and dry. By the way…if this were 1850 the past 15 days would have been harsh!!!!

    Finally…I am indeed sticking with my 13-15 for Lawrence. I would still respectfully argue that there are 1-2 set ups in this “warmer phase” of cycle 3 and then the entire cold phase that could still give us 10 inches of snow which would put me about dead on. I also would not be surprised at all if we do not see a couple of nights in the cold phase of cycle 3 where we again get in the single digits even without a snow pack. Not sure if I would lay a bet on it (I’m a high school teacher LOL) but I sure would not be surprised.

    Have a great Sunday everyone…
    .
    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

    • Three7s January 7, 2018 at 12:37 pm - Reply

      I see what you’re saying. My only question is that our only reliable moisture source in from the gulf, and tapping into that means southerly winds. How does it stay cold enough to snow while getting the moisture in to have a half-way decent snow? I’m amazed it ever snows here to be honest.

  31. Fredd32 January 7, 2018 at 11:58 am - Reply

    This has ended up being a pretty good soaking rain for lees summit at least. We needed it for sure.

  32. Fred Nolan January 7, 2018 at 12:08 pm - Reply

    Carl Peterson curse lives on.

    • Bluetooth January 7, 2018 at 6:47 pm - Reply

      Oh Fred, not just Carl. Remember Dick Vermeil, Joe Montana, Trent Green, etc?????

  33. Phillip January 7, 2018 at 12:24 pm - Reply

    Only 33° here in oak grove… slick spots on the roads still

  34. Weatherfreaker January 7, 2018 at 1:05 pm - Reply

    It’s only 33 in Lee’s Summit per my car thermometer just now…wonder if it may not get as warm as expected today? Icy glaze still on cement porch and elevated surfaces…

  35. Nicholas January 7, 2018 at 1:17 pm - Reply

    have had some ice here in St. joe even hanging on now on NON elevated surfaces, which is unusuall, from our great dampaning lol, we didn’t break the ice up here but we sure did give it a nice “spit shine” lol.
    I have a possible theory concerning the warm winters that Bill has mentioned that have occured in this area in the 19th century, during the 19th century we were still at the end of the litttle age ( or at least coming out of it) so the Earth should have been cooler overall than it is today, ( even if not accounting for GW) so whats would be with the blow torch winters here? Well the areas that have been warming more overall are the arctic regions( Barrow) Alaska hasn’t had a daily record low since 2007 for example. So it would seem to me that likley in a colder world the Arctic would be much colder while the lower latitudes would be cooler but maybe not much more so compared to the arctic, therefore the change in temp from the tropics to the arctic may be been larger back then leading to a stronger polar jet stream on avg. back in the 19th century, which to me seems like it would scream set ups for LRC’s that had a very strong and unusually stable( by our standards) zonal flows that would blow torch the plains during the winters. not every year of course, but it could lead to a few years that would be crazy warm because of forcing from the downslope effect. Just some thoughts anyway.

    • Kurt January 7, 2018 at 3:38 pm - Reply

      I don’t even consider what fell to be drool, most everything is still dry under trees and on the north side of anything. This storm was pathetic at best north of Kansas City. If we are ever blessed to catch up, we’re going to get hammered by something up here at some point.

  36. Troy Newman January 7, 2018 at 1:17 pm - Reply

    It is tough to get snow as far SE as KC or Lawrence at times. If you look at this system its really too weak and too far North for snow I think. If it was a true winter storm I would be getting a snow but nothing is falling here at all and probably won’t. The deformation zone here to the NW of the Low is almost doesn’t exist. There are just a few weak returns in NE that may or may not be reaching the ground. KC is in the warm sector and it is hard to get snow where things are positioned even if the storm was stronger. The jet stream is just taking a dip too far East to really get a good storm going in my opinion. If I were to find something to blame it would be whatever is causing the warm pool of water in the Eastern Pacific. I don’t know if that warm water is causing the ridging over CA or if its the other way around but I think its a major cause of boring winter weather in recent years. I read somewhere that is may be convection pattern s in the tropics that they think is causing it??

    Now this storm on Thursday may not bring snow to KC but it is doing something we have seen very little of in recent years and that is moving up through the 4 corners. Now I think you need some luck as well to get snow in KC. A lot of classic storms bring rain and ice from Wichita through KC and snow from where I live up into Nebraska. That is why my closest reporting station at Superior, NE averages 26″ of snow per season and KC averages about 16 even though KC gets twice as much moisture over the winter months I suppose.

  37. Brad January 7, 2018 at 1:27 pm - Reply

    I feel the Euro is trending south, here is the newest look at it.

    https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/kansas/snow-depth-in/20180112-0600z.html

  38. Tdogg January 7, 2018 at 1:41 pm - Reply

    How is Storm Terry looking for Thursday? I hope it pans out for him! Just remember, we are just barely into winter 😉

    • Heat Miser January 7, 2018 at 3:36 pm - Reply

      Whats the matter tdogg, nobody likes you in real life so you take it out on poor snow lovers on this blog? Don’t hate, just seek therapy. Only two week into winter…nobody knows what will happen snow wise either way has always been the point….try to keep up there Skippy.

      • Kurt January 7, 2018 at 3:41 pm - Reply

        Why are you so mean to other bloggers? Why do you only stand by winter from the calendar date? If you went by meterogical we are almost a month and a half into this.

        All I’ve seen you do is ruffle feathers on here. First you defend those that write off winter, yet bash the models. Do you have a forecast to share with us? We will be sure to make note of it and see how well you end up doing?

      • Tdogg January 7, 2018 at 4:00 pm - Reply

        I just hope you get a big snow so you can get out of the house and play. Seems like you aren’t in school much these days and I think you need some positive snow vibes. I will say some prayers for you.

      • Bluetooth January 7, 2018 at 6:59 pm - Reply

        Heat—be nice–it’s no one’s fault that it didn’t or hasn’t snowed this 1.5 months of cold weather. Stop saying 2 weeks–makes it look like you are searching for a technicality/alibi. You know that cycle 3 will be warmer than cycle 2. Do the math…..

    • Bluetooth January 7, 2018 at 6:48 pm - Reply

      Yeah, just barely, then it will be, “hold on, there are still two weeks of winter left,” LMAO….

  39. stl78 January 7, 2018 at 3:24 pm - Reply

    Finally got my pipes thawed without busting

  40. Rod January 7, 2018 at 4:24 pm - Reply

    Rain continues to feed in from the SW, just went outside at 4:00 PM & have 0.68” in my rain gauge so far in Ashland just south of Columbia & with the moisture feed coming up out of OK & SW MO I would not be surprised to end up with close to an inch of rain by the time rain ends overnight. As we begin cycle 3 this is a good sign that this storm brought enough rain that if it was colder this would of produced 6-12” of snow. I remember Gary indicating in a previous blog that it was important that the system today did not miss us. At least for central MO this has been an all day soaker with periods of moderate rain at times. Maybe this is a sign that other storms that follow in cycle 3 will also hit us directly & we can get some cold air & snow but receiving rain is important to help with the drought conditions. Even at 35 degrees still have patchy ice on the driveway, ground temperatures still have not completely caught up to air temperatures yet. I’m going to take this direct hit by today’s system as a good sign, I may be totally off but if this storm would of left us dry I would have serious doubts about other storms in cycle 3 producing. Just maybe we can get a few inches of snow in the next 7-10 days. Have a great evening!!

    Rodney
    Ashland, MO

  41. Kurt January 7, 2018 at 5:23 pm - Reply

    Good for you, let’s hope this isn’t a sign for cycle 3 or we’ll be high and dry. This rain would have been very much need here in St Joseph, too bad we seem to be in the corridor of nothing still

  42. Bobbie January 7, 2018 at 5:38 pm - Reply

    3/4″ at my home. Couldn’t be more happy to sit inside and watch it rain

    • Kurt January 7, 2018 at 7:41 pm - Reply

      Congrats Bobbie, I truly can’t remember the last rainy day here, I mean an all day rain. Sure would’ve nice to see that here.

  43. Adam January 7, 2018 at 6:08 pm - Reply

    Thursday storm still bares watching. Has been a trend towards the south on most models, but not sure warm sector precip shield is being modeled correctly.

    The ULL in the gulf at the same time frame is absolutely killing moisture return(figures). It’s 90% likely that this will be another swing and miss for us in KC, but there has been a notable shift to the south in both the Euro and the GFS.

    We will see I guess..

    • Richard January 7, 2018 at 6:41 pm - Reply

      Terry that’s 2 weeks out.

      I say on Feb 23-24 today’s storm will come back (47 day cycle)
      Will it be warm or will it be cold

    • Bluetooth January 7, 2018 at 6:51 pm - Reply

      Oh Terry, you know as well as anyone, even Heat, that the models are no good that far out–like Gary said. It’s warmer now–enjoy that. Go to Walmart and look for spring stuff to buy–will make you feel much better……

      • Terry January 7, 2018 at 6:57 pm - Reply

        Check the new one of its dated January 11th.

    • Kurt January 7, 2018 at 7:11 pm - Reply

      The only thing I see is the next storm goes north, we get dry slotted and some wrap around mix or light snow, them a secondary low forms on the front too far southest of us.

      Clearly were or I am in the wrong spot again

      • Adam January 7, 2018 at 7:26 pm - Reply

        Absolutely Kurt. And it very well may end up that way. It has trended south some, but we know how this ends.

        • Kurt January 7, 2018 at 7:46 pm - Reply

          Which reminds me that’s what the energy that gave isvthe Christmas Eve snow did. It was stronger to my north the I think the upper level disturbance dived south and east taking moisture and snow with it. Oh St Joseph received .01, so we’re only behind .13 year to date now lol

  44. Larry January 7, 2018 at 7:05 pm - Reply

    http://www.readingeagle.com/ap/article/southern-california-braces-for-heavy-rainstorm-monday-threatening-burn-areas-with-runoff
    Southern California braces for heavy rainstorm Monday, threatening burn areas with runoff.
    Has the ridge broken?

  45. Carl January 7, 2018 at 7:42 pm - Reply

    Weather bug has Thursdays precipitation changing to rain now, with a high of 50. We are now the new Louisiana, and the days of 6″ snow storms gone.

  46. Emaw January 7, 2018 at 7:43 pm - Reply

    The usual .25″ in north Olathe, thank you sir may I have another.

  47. stl78 January 7, 2018 at 7:50 pm - Reply

    Emaw, Better than js🤣

    • Emaw January 7, 2018 at 8:20 pm - Reply

      Stl, no doubt, washed some of the salt away as well. Glad you got your pipes thawed with no issues.

  48. stl78 January 7, 2018 at 8:39 pm - Reply

    Thank u sir!

    • Bluetooth January 8, 2018 at 4:02 am - Reply

      STL, What’s the weather going to be like Thursday up your way??

      • stl78 January 8, 2018 at 7:46 am - Reply

        Bt, how was your trip? Did i read you were in the Philippines? As far as thur for us the models are still confused. Euro ushers in the colder air much later with a transition to snow on the back side as moisture is departing and a high pressure moves in. Gfs/nam bring thr cold air in quicker and give us some accumalating snow. Heaviest still looks to b to my nw. Hopefully there is a better consensus today.
        I have a great old friend that i grew up from thr Philippines. He goes back every few yrs to see fam. What is the wx like there this time of yr?

  49. Richard January 7, 2018 at 8:43 pm - Reply

    NOAA
    NWS issues an alert for us

    …Black Ice Development Overnight…

    Wet roads will combine with temperatures falling below freezing
    late tonight to produce the potential for black ice on area roads
    or bridges that have not been treated. Areas most affected by the
    combination of wet roads and cold temperatures will be south and
    east of I-35. Drivers are advised to exercise caution if out
    driving tonight through mid-Monday morning when temperatures will
    warm back above freezing.

    • Richard January 7, 2018 at 8:48 pm - Reply

      I failed to include the top portion of that statement

      Special Weather Statement
      Special Weather Statement in effect until Monday, 7:00 AM CST. Source: U.S. National Weather Service

  50. Freezemiser January 7, 2018 at 9:18 pm - Reply

    Why a dense fog advisory but not a freezing fog advisory?

  51. Richard January 7, 2018 at 9:26 pm - Reply

    Jerard said tonight at 5 pm on pkshb that the rain washed away a lot if the salt, so basically untreated roads now.
    Unless they are out salting again tonight ? Anyone see kdot or modot trucks out ?

    • Dobber January 7, 2018 at 9:42 pm - Reply

      No richard, not yet but hopefully they will be it’s very slick out in spots right now.

  52. Kurt January 7, 2018 at 10:22 pm - Reply

    No need to treat up here, salt still intact after our deluge of .01 this morning lol

  53. Kurt January 7, 2018 at 10:23 pm - Reply

    And fog is being swept out with a frontal passage

  54. Roger January 8, 2018 at 12:30 am - Reply

    And Thursday’s energy gets sheared out. Fantastic.

    • Anonymous January 8, 2018 at 5:35 am - Reply

      Only from your words.

  55. MattinLeavenworth January 8, 2018 at 2:26 am - Reply

    So I just got back in from walking the dog for a late night go she needed to do. Roads were glazed over with a very thin ice layer up here. It wasn’t as bad as a freezing rain scenario, but it was slick. Cars parked outside are all frosted over too. Looking forward to the warm up.

  56. f00dl3 January 8, 2018 at 7:26 am - Reply

    So are we even going to end the snowflake contest this year?

    • Terry January 8, 2018 at 7:32 am - Reply

      Gary said last night on the 10 pm news weather that it could in the snow flake contest this week . We said There was two chances this week. He said there was maybe even the chances he puts on his snow vest . so yes there a chance.

      • f00dl3 January 8, 2018 at 7:40 am - Reply

        Are there any models showing that? GFS, now that we are less than 7 days away, shows it missing us or only giving us 1/2 inch Kuchera. NAM shows it skirting to our north as well.

  57. f00dl3 January 8, 2018 at 7:38 am - Reply

    Based on wrecks all over the place this icing event today is worse than a 6″ snow in some cases. Roads are terrible. 30 wrecks working just on the highways right now per KCScout.net.

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