Next Weeks Storm Systems Are Right On Schedule

/Next Weeks Storm Systems Are Right On Schedule

Next Weeks Storm Systems Are Right On Schedule

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: A few periods of clouds, otherwise sunny. A cold surge arrives from the northeast, but this just holds in the cold. Today is the 14th day in a row below 32 degrees. High: 24°
  • Tonight:  Increasing clouds, becoming cloudy.  Low:  10°
  • Saturday Tailgating at Arrowhead:  A few morning clouds with some sun coming out. Temperatures warming through the teens into the 20s with a wind shift to the southeast at 10 to 15 mph.  Wind chills near 10 degrees, so bundle up.
  • Saturday Afternoon & Evening:  The sun comes out as the sun sets over Arrowhead, hopefully with the Chiefs winning. High: 28°, the warmest temperature of the year so far.  It will be dry with a breeze.
  • Sunday: A good chance of rain. There is a chance of some freezing rain with temperatures very close to 32 degrees. One or two degrees, and the amount of precipitation are critical to whether there will be any problems with icing. There is even a chance of a change to snow or a mix of snow or sleet. High: 33°

Thank you so much for so many well thought out messages on why this blog is successful.  I will be using a few of them in my presentation next week. I leave for Austin on Monday and return late Wednesday afternoon. I am presenting on Wednesday morning and in this presentation I will be sharing my Star Wars Calendar from 1978.

IMG_2203Take a look at this entry from January 9th-10th 1978, 40 years ago. Can you even imagine?  The weather pattern in these first two years of me keeping a weather calendar were about as exciting as any in my entire life.  Storm systems were blasting the southwestern United states.  As you can see on these two entries, “A Very Large storm is dropping rain, very heavily constantly raining. 2-5 inches of rain are expected. The next day we had severe thunderstorms across the San Fernando Valley. Are you kidding me?  The very next year, in the 1978 weather calendar, it was just as exciting. We are so far from any weather like this, unless you live in the deep south, east, or in the Lake-Effect band region.

Here is that Star Wars Calendar:

IMG_2201

IMG_2202

Look closely. You can see a long range forecast. Underneath the month title of January, I have a forecast I wrote for the month. I was making long range forecasts in 1978 before I knew that the weather pattern was cycling.  This is part of my presentation on “How to have a successful blog: sharing the Art & Science of weather”.

Cycle 3 of this year’s weather pattern begins this weekend into early next week. This years cycle is around 47-days. What happened 47 days ago? I was in New York City to see the Chiefs play the Giants.  The game was horribly boring and the Chiefs lost. When I arrived in NYC it rained, there were winds up to 50 mph with injuries from a scaffolding that fell onto a street, and then on my way out it snowed.  I was at La Guardia airport on the 20th leaving and NYC had their first snowflakes of the season. 47 days ago! It is not a coincidence, as many of you realize. This recent snowstorm is directly related to what I personally experienced on my visit.

So, now I am leaving for this presentation in Austin, TX Monday. There is this thing you all named, the LLTI (Lezak’s Leaving Town Index). Well, maybe it’s going to work, but we know a lot more now a days.  The storm due in around next Wednesday-Friday is the one we have expected to produce near KC, but let’s be realistic.  This part of the pattern has now hit, and also missed KC.  It has produced in the region, but KC itself is 1 for 2, while the LRC itself is 2 for 2.  That is a 50% accuracy on forecasting and a 100% accuracy on the LRC itself. Does this make sense to you? It is a point I have been trying to get across for years; that the LRC is almost flawless, but the forecasts based off knowledge of this cycling pattern are always much more challenging.

Screen Shot 2018-01-05 at 7.41.32 AM

The map above shows last nights European Model forecast for Thursday. And, here are the totals for the next seven days:

Screen Shot 2018-01-05 at 7.42.21 AM

If this is exactly right, then the snowflake contest would end and we would have 0.5″ of liquid precipitation. But, hang on, here is the problem. This still needs to evolve in such a way for it to set up to produce this output. A slight change here or there could leave many areas dry once again.  I don’t want to analyze this potential any more significantly until early next week as we will be receiving many more solutions from the computer model.

Before we get to this storm, we have a lead system approaching us on Saturday night and Sunday.  Let’s see how this sets up too. We need to break the ice. It has been so dry, and these are two decent chances to get measurable rain or snow. Remember, Amarillo, Texas is zero for this years LRC. They have the big goose egg, the big zero, no rain or snow at all for 90 days.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to Weather2020, click on the blog, and join in the conversation or read the comments as we discuss this developing week of interesting weather. Hopefully it won’t leave us frustrated again. I would place the chance of being frustrated at 50%.  Ouch. Have a great day!

Gary

2018-01-06T10:27:18+00:00January 5th, 2018|General|105 Comments

105 Comments

  1. f00dl3 January 5, 2018 at 8:41 am - Reply

    GFS has the storm entirely missing us

    Hate to say it but when it gets under 10 days out the GFS has been trending the right way all the time.

    • Three7s January 5, 2018 at 8:51 am - Reply

      Both models have had their issues, but the EURO has been terrible since I can remember. The GFS hasn’t really trended snow at all, with the exception of one model run here and there, and until it does, I’ll continue to stay with the GFS.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE January 5, 2018 at 8:52 am - Reply

      But run before that was pretty darn good, lets try not to be so model-manic as this is along way out yet and fits the pattern. Not throwing that run out but not panicking yet, looking forward to nice rinse on Sunday to wash away the nasty salt.

    • Gary January 5, 2018 at 8:58 am - Reply

      Yes, but as I discussed with Jeff and our weather team two weeks ago, let’s break the ice with the first one. If Sunday’s storm misses, this is a very, very bad sign for the next one. If Sunday’s storm hits, then something has changed. I would consider a hit of getting more than 0.15″ at KCI Airport.

      Gary

    • Clint January 5, 2018 at 9:07 am - Reply

      The Canadian has been better than the GFS. I disagree with you I think the GFS has been skitso

    • Terry January 5, 2018 at 9:22 am - Reply

      But remember yesterday we seen it change many times in the GFS model Run to run . so that dose not matter if it’s under 10 days in seen it yesterday go from south and back to north Several times so it will change again and flip / flop many times

      • DaveC January 5, 2018 at 9:40 am - Reply

        Terry, appreciate your positive attitude about it, but this year I feel the trend with the models has been to show a storm then each model run it seems to disappear, not really flip flop back and forth.

        • Heat Miser January 5, 2018 at 11:08 am - Reply

          Oh Dave, the models have been all over the place ten days out. I say we talk more seriously about it next week as we get a few days out.

    • Heat Miser January 5, 2018 at 11:07 am - Reply

      Funny, I keep hearing how the Euro tends to be more reliable. None of the models know what path a storm will end up taking ten days out though in reality, so Gary is right…lets talk next week.

      • Brian watson January 5, 2018 at 6:52 pm - Reply

        Forgive heatmiser. He’s like a kid. He hears something once and then repeats it forever.

  2. REAL HUMEDUDE January 5, 2018 at 8:50 am - Reply

    Nice to have some storms to talk about, at least potential of them anyway. I was thinking last night, I have forgotten what a winter storm looks like. How long has it been since we were under a Winter Storm or Blizzard Warning? Next time we have a serious weather doldrums, maybe Gary can showcase a significant storm that affected our area in the past? Nothing too fancy as I know that’s a lot of work, but it would be a neat way to reinforce in our hearts and minds that MAJOR WINTER STORMS DO HAPPEN HERE! I remember several years ago we had a Bombo-genesis type system that produced about a foot of snow and blizzard conditions here, yet its fuzzy in the memory and would be cool to see a 24 hour radar loop of such an event. I bet a lot of folks don’t even realize we have Bombo-type systems here as well, we can get absolute monster systems same as the east coast, it has happened and WILL happen again just be patient.

    • Three7s January 5, 2018 at 8:52 am - Reply

      I was reading a post on another weather forum from a guy who lived in the Midwest. He called the KC area, the place where snow goes to die. Couldn’t be more true.

    • Gary January 5, 2018 at 8:56 am - Reply

      I just added this time-line to the blog. The first model in was a bit wetter for Sunday:
      Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

      Today: A few periods of clouds, otherwise sunny. A cold surge arrives from the northeast, but this just holds in the cold. Today is the 14th day in a row below 32 degrees. High: 24°
      Tonight: Increasing clouds, becoming cloudy. Low: 10°
      Saturday Tailgating at Arrowhead: A few morning clouds with some sun coming out. Temperatures warming through the teens into the 20s with a wind shift to the southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Wind chills near 10 degrees, so bundle up.
      Saturday Afternoon & Evening: The sun comes out as the sun sets over Arrowhead, hopefully with the Chiefs winning. High: 28°, the warmest temperature of the year so far. It will be dry with a breeze.
      Sunday: A good chance of rain. There is a chance of some freezing rain with temperatures very close to 32 degrees. One or two degrees, and the amount of precipitation are critical to whether there will be any problems with icing. There is even a chance of a change to snow or a mix of snow or sleet. High: 33°

      • KS Jones January 5, 2018 at 9:26 am - Reply

        I didn’t realize it has been so cold back east (KC). It was 39° when I was in Manhattan yesterday.

        http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KMHK.html

        • REAL HUMEDUDE January 5, 2018 at 9:54 am - Reply

          It was pushing 50f in Dodge City yesterday, yet we were stuck in 20s all day here in KC

  3. Lary Gezak January 5, 2018 at 9:06 am - Reply

    The EURO is crazy in KC. Showing a 5 inch band just a few counties south of us.

    We’re now under a week to go until this storm, so let’s start watching it closely.

    Lary

  4. whitingr January 5, 2018 at 9:11 am - Reply

    Gary, any indication of the timing of the rain/freezing rain on Sunday? I have a flight out of KCI at 1:45p.

  5. Anonymous January 5, 2018 at 9:24 am - Reply

    Bet any of you, come Sunday, enough freezing rain will have fallen to create enough of somewhat a travel issue. Ground temps are very cold, and even if we warm up, could still be dealing with freezing on the ground.

  6. Mr. Pete January 5, 2018 at 9:26 am - Reply

    Gary, may the force be with you, throughout the whole year!

  7. Brad January 5, 2018 at 9:57 am - Reply

    The latest NAM has some icicg around kc sunday, something we do not need at all

  8. Urbanity January 5, 2018 at 10:02 am - Reply

    Wichita news station reported wichita has not had a measurable snowfall for 383 days, an all time record (they have been keeping records since 1888). That is a pretty amazing statistic, and with this year’s LRC it is highly likely to continue until next year.

    Big test for the LRC, as Gary said, 47 days ago the Chiefs got beat by one of the worst teams in football, if the LRC repeats they will get beat by one of the worst playoff teams in football. Tennessee 16 Griefs 10. Now if it wasn’t for the LRC I would predict Chiefs get to the Super Bowl, Chiefs 34 Tennessee 17.

    • Terry January 5, 2018 at 12:03 pm - Reply

      lol ok will see

  9. Kathy January 5, 2018 at 10:09 am - Reply

    Hubby and I were discussing this morning about the possible rain on Sunday. If it rains, how can we not have ice with the ground being so frozen? Even if it’s just all rain, I worry about an icing event. Maybe I just don’t understand how this all works.

    • BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS) January 5, 2018 at 10:20 am - Reply

      Here is your answer Kathy…..

      .Discussion…
      Issued at 315 AM CST FRI JAN 5 2018

      The main concern in the short term portion of the forecast is with
      the warm advection precipitation Sunday. There are several reasons
      why Sunday could be a wintry mess before temperatures warm up.
      First, thermal profiles favor freezing rain and/or sleet before low
      levels warm up above freezing. Second, we`ve been so cold for so
      long that even when temperatures warm up above freezing, the
      residual coldness of the ground could result in multiple hours more
      of freezing rain. As the cold area of high pressure that will affect
      the region Friday and Saturday shifts to the east, surface and low
      level flow will become southerly Saturday night into Sunday morning.
      Warm, moist advection will gradually deepen the moisture, so there
      may be some freezing drizzle initially, but as cloud ice is
      introduced and temperatures aloft warm above freezing, precipitation
      should become heavier. With surface temperatures lagging, and ground
      temperatures likely lagging still, this will likely result in
      freezing rain. This will likely be mixed with sleet and possibly
      snow depending on how deep the moisture is and how quickly
      temperatures warm.

    • Gary January 5, 2018 at 10:31 am - Reply

      Kathy, this is a factor for sure. The GFS and Canadian model have the temperatures rising above 32 degrees just as the rain begins. The NAM is colder. Even just a little rain at below 32 degrees can cause major problems. What’s incredible is that it has been cold enough for snow for two straight weeks, and it snowed, very little. And, now it may rain. I will take the moisture for sure, so let’s see. We need to break the ice of this dry spell, pun sort of intended today. The late next week storm is looking better. This first lead storm is important, first. So, what do I think? I am just not sure yet. The NAM, earlier in the season did the best on temperatures. If it is correct, then there will be some ice. We have another 24 hours to 30 hours to monitor around four or five more model runs. The timing would be dry through midnight Saturday night.

      Gary

      • Kathy January 5, 2018 at 1:52 pm - Reply

        BS Mike and Gary: Thanks for addressing this possibility. It just seems that any moisture that falls, if not snow, would make this a mess. Glad to hear that other “official” voices seem to agree. I do want precip…don’t get me wrong, but I prefer snow and not ice. I broke my leg several years ago during an ice storm and don’t like them at all….but I do want rain, so I’m torn. I’ll be watching and reading this blog for updates. Thanks again guys!!!

  10. Adam January 5, 2018 at 10:18 am - Reply

    12z GFS stays consistent. Major winter storm for the northern plains.

    • Terry January 5, 2018 at 10:46 am - Reply

      it’s has Shifted South some on this last run. from the GFS 6z to the GFS 12z !

    • Heat Miser January 5, 2018 at 11:11 am - Reply

      Are you talking about Sunday or next week?

      • MMike January 5, 2018 at 11:53 am - Reply

        Heat,

        10 days ago the GFS showed this storm that will be in the plains this weekend. You have said 15,489 times that the model data is worthless? Is it? 10 days ago the GFS showed KC never getting above freezing up until Saturday or Sunday this weekend. That happened. The GFS 10 days ago showed less then .10 inches of total moisture and very little in the way of any storms…that happened. The GFS 10 days ago showed KC going above freezing for the first time in 15 days around Saturday or Sunday. That will happen too.

        So, when you say the model trends from 10 days out are totally useless, that couldn’t be more misleading. Now, did the GFS flash a different solution here and there for the next 10 days…sure, but the trend from this particular model from 10 days ago was for it to be well below average on temps, very little moisture until the 6th-8th when a potential storm would be in the plains, and a chance for us to get above freezing by the 6th or 7th.

        HEAT…the data was excellent from 10 days out. Everything I posted did indeed happen and the rest is in line to happen.

        Was it perfect as far as highs, lows, and total precip. heck no! But, it was damn close. If anyone believes that a model can predict exact outcomes, well, that’s their fault. You use the long range data for trends, potential storms and pattern changes. The GFS did a great job at this.

        The GFS 10 days ago called for a storm in the plains around day 8 or 9…it’s going to happen. Now, as that storm, modeled 10 days, gets closer, the exact track, thermal profiles, and amounts have to be fine tuned.

        Heat, don;t get me wrong, all is good and I’m not harping on ya, but when you make such claims please bring some facts along with it. One of your 15,489 claims that the data is always wrong from 10 days out, I just proved that this one claim from 10 days ago is wrong on your part. So, your blanket statement that the model data is never right, is just not true all the time. Yes, the data will be totally wrong at times, but, there are many times that the data does an excellent job modeling the upcoming 10 days.

        23 years folks since the Chiefs have won a home playoff game, this all ends in 31 hours.

        GO CHIEFS!!!!

      • Joe January 5, 2018 at 12:04 pm - Reply

        10 days from now 🙂

      • Terry January 5, 2018 at 12:05 pm - Reply

        He’s talking about next week.

  11. Troy January 5, 2018 at 10:21 am - Reply

    There sure are some records that are getting broken. Too bad they are dry and boring records. I have always felt things even out and I think they will. Maybe next year. I noticed after the drought and low snow totals of the 1930s that the 1940s was the snowiest decade on record around here. After 6 straight years of averaging about 10″ in the 30s my reporting station had an average of 30 inches in the 1940s with the lowest total at 25 inches and 5 of the 10 hitting over 40 inches for the year. I imagine the snow will return someday.

  12. Three7s January 5, 2018 at 10:23 am - Reply

    The GFS has been bias towards cold this year, but I wonder if it might have overcorrected a bit too much for this weekend. For the positioning of this low, it seems a bit too warm, and I think icing could be an issue if that’s the case.

  13. Rockdoc January 5, 2018 at 10:25 am - Reply

    Good Morning Gary. Wow, I can’t believe you kept your Star Wars Calendar for all these years! I can remember going to see the first one when it came out the spring of 1977. I saw it three times, and every time there were huge lines of people that wrapped around the building waiting to see the movie!

    It seems like we need the Force to be with us next week if Kansas City is going to see any snow this winter. In looking at the 0z model runs for both the Euro and the GFS, the Euro targets our area including Kansas City with snow, while the GFS targets Nebraska with Lincoln and Omaha getting the brunt of the storm. The GFS shows we are on the warm side so we get rain mostly late Wednesday into early Thursday, although there may be some minor snow on the back side after the surface low buzzes by. The biggest difference I see between these two models is where the trough and closed off upper level low resides as it approaches our area. The EURO has the trough with the closed off low digging into the panhandle of Texas late Wednesday evening while the GFS has it up to the north centered over Wichita. There is also a time lag in terms of the snow. The GFS shows the storm starting up in Nebraska on Wednesday morning/afternoon and spreading eastwards, while the EURO shows the snow arrival time on Thursday early morning and spreading northeastwards.

    Well, we are a week out with the second system, so we’ll just have to wait and see how this plays out. Just hoping we don’t get too much ice Sunday morning. It’s too bad the ground is frozen solid because it would be good to have the rain soak in.

    • Gary January 5, 2018 at 10:35 am - Reply

      Yes, I have all of my Weather Calendars saved. I kept weather calendars into the 1990s, then I stopped, I guess I got older?

      Just using the LRC, you would expect a farther south track than what the GFS is showing. There are a lot more model runs to go.

      Gary

      • Urbanity January 5, 2018 at 10:41 am - Reply

        I like that confidence Gary! Further south track definitely more desirable, but not too far south, this storm not strong enough to cover more than one state with meaningful precip.

  14. Rockdoc January 5, 2018 at 11:14 am - Reply

    Here’s where the EURO has the trough and the closed off low at 6:00 am and 6:00 pm on Thursday the 11th.

    https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018010500/usa/geopotential-height-500hpa/20180111-1200z.html

    https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018010500/usa/geopotential-height-500hpa/20180112-0000z.html

    Here is the EURO modeled snowfall for those two time frames.

    https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018010500/missouri/snow-depth-in/20180111-1200z.html

    https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018010500/missouri/snow-depth-in/20180112-0000z.html

    Here is the GFS modeled trough and snowfall for the same time frames.

    https://weather.us/model-charts/standard/2018010500/usa/geopotential-height-500hpa/20180111-1200z.html

    https://weather.us/model-charts/standard/2018010500/kansas/snow-depth-in/20180111-1200z.html

    https://weather.us/model-charts/standard/2018010500/usa/geopotential-height-500hpa/20180112-0000z.html

    https://weather.us/model-charts/standard/2018010500/kansas/snow-depth-in/20180112-0000z.html

    As an FYI…..the above site is currently free while it is beta testing, but they anticipate it to go live by the end of January so it will be $10/month to access, or a yearly fee of $99. I do like this site because it has the EURO, however it does not have the same parameter lists like snowfall in 6/12 hour increments like the other sites, nor does it show freezing rain. Before I decide to join I’ll e-mail them and see if they can add these parameters to the list.

    • stl78 January 5, 2018 at 2:41 pm - Reply

      Rock, i use accuweatherpro. They have a 14 day free trial and after that its 20 bucks a mo and they have a ton of models and parameters to choose from.

  15. Rockdoc January 5, 2018 at 11:22 am - Reply

    Oops, I’m in mod again. Using another computer so the system doesn’t recognize me. Plus I posted numerous links to model runs.

  16. Roger January 5, 2018 at 11:38 am - Reply

    Well, I guess if there is a positive around here, at least we didn’t have to wait 28 years to get a real snow like Charleston, SC, Savannah, GA, and Tallahassee, FL!!!!
    http://ksn.com/2018/01/03/winter-storm-forecast-to-dump-snow-from-florida-to-carolinas/

  17. Rockdoc January 5, 2018 at 11:40 am - Reply

    Ok, for all of you hard core weather geeks, here’s a really good article on the setup for yesterday’s huge “bomb” cyclone that had a 59mb drop within 24 hours! What sparked this storm?

    http://mashable.com/2018/01/04/how-bomb-cyclone-intensified-so-quickly.amp?utm_cid=hp-r-1&__twitter_impression=true

  18. TonganoxieSplit January 5, 2018 at 11:44 am - Reply

    Well, KC area is long overdue for a decent ice storm. Its been a while.

  19. Richard January 5, 2018 at 12:04 pm - Reply

    Gary

    (Yeah, everyone I’m back. Only to learn. Not here to rock any boats.)

    Using the LRC, I might have a very complicated question.
    Considering the relatively dry stretch since Oct 22 to Sunday ( 77 days by Sunday) and this frigid stretch of 13 days by tomorrow
    With 47 day cycles. Will we have a 77 day dry stretch, if so, starting when ? And towards the end of that period we will see 13 days of much below normal temps ?
    So, I know the dry stretch could be very different when Spring / summer come. Hope so. But this below norm temps stretch could be just when we need them in mid-late summer !?

    • Gary January 5, 2018 at 12:32 pm - Reply

      Remember, there are seasonal differences. Last years dry pattern was a wet one in the spring, even though the pattern was “the same”. I am more concerned this year about a drought than last year. I was wrong last year. And, I hope my concerns are wrong again, I just doubt it, at least through the early spring.

      We had 18 days in a row below average in cycle one, and it appears it is about the same in cycle 2.

      The new Euro is coming out now. It is a disorganized storm at the end of the week, with two parts to it, at least two parts. We have many days to analyze.

      Gary

      • Richard January 5, 2018 at 2:19 pm - Reply

        Gary
        Thanks. (I did say above the dry stretch could be very different when Spring/summer come. So yes, I know seasonal differences)
        But my question was when would the dry stretch start, given 47 day cycle, and you have many times stated here, and on the air, that “the moisture on October 22 just shut down.”
        Seems like we have had nearly 2 cycles of dry. If it rains on Sunday, then maybe a storm next week. So that puts us back to the beginnings of cycle 1 ?
        And the 18 days below normal temps, here in cycle 2, if every other cycle mirrors, then we might get a nice break from summer heat in cycle 6 ?

  20. Mindawhen January 5, 2018 at 12:08 pm - Reply

    The calendar comments were very interesting, but OMG that Star Wars calendar from 1978 is amazing!

  21. smizell January 5, 2018 at 12:25 pm - Reply

    OK, so if I did all of my counting correctly, according to this years LRC, we should have precipitation chances around January 16 and again on the 24th? Those days trace back to bigger rain events in October.

  22. Adam January 5, 2018 at 12:35 pm - Reply

    Both the GFS and Euro go well above freezing on Sunday. Don’t see any issues with ice, so that’s great.

    • MMike January 5, 2018 at 12:43 pm - Reply

      Adam,

      Yes, eventually above freezing. All depends when the precip starts. In WAA set-up, you can get freezing drizzle for a few hours. That will be enough to make things messy for a few hours.

      Cold air can be stubborn getting out of here. It will be close.

    • Anonymous January 5, 2018 at 1:41 pm - Reply

      we don’t no what will happen yet for Sunday and next week yet !

    • SnowComander January 5, 2018 at 2:55 pm - Reply

      Ground temperatures is what your not counting on? Not great. Instant freezing on contact with the pavement. This could be a disaster on Sunday morning.

    • SnowComander January 5, 2018 at 3:35 pm - Reply
      • Richard January 5, 2018 at 4:01 pm - Reply

        Ugh
        not good if it happens

  23. Adam January 5, 2018 at 1:05 pm - Reply

    Yep. The new Euro is a swing and miss on next week.

  24. Roger January 5, 2018 at 1:09 pm - Reply
    • Roger January 5, 2018 at 1:10 pm - Reply

      By the way. Records go back to 1874.

    • Roger January 5, 2018 at 1:13 pm - Reply

      They also had a 61 day dry streak at the beginning of 2017. Amazing. Two top 8 streaks within 12 months.

      • Troy Newman January 5, 2018 at 1:40 pm - Reply

        That is really odd but it is also very surprising is that they finished the calendar year 2017 4″ above normal on rainfall despite those two long streaks in 2017. From April 1 to July 1 they had nearly 20″ and only have a yearly average of 21.60.

        • Roger January 5, 2018 at 2:42 pm - Reply

          Very fortunate indeed. However, a couple counties east in central Kansas and most places finished 6-9 inches below normal.

        • Roger January 5, 2018 at 2:44 pm - Reply

          Also, there were some tremendous wildfires around Clark and Comanche counties in March right before the big rains. Even in Hutchinson we had bad wildfires just north of the city limits.

  25. Bobbie January 5, 2018 at 2:31 pm - Reply

    I hope we just get some decent moisture. I couldn’t care less about how much snow we get but any precip is much appreciated

  26. Jsquibble January 5, 2018 at 2:46 pm - Reply

    New nam looks wetter for Sunday

  27. Clint January 5, 2018 at 3:13 pm - Reply
  28. Clint January 5, 2018 at 3:15 pm - Reply
    • SnowComander January 5, 2018 at 3:40 pm - Reply

      That’s for Tuesday? Or I’m reading something wrong here?

      • Richard January 5, 2018 at 4:04 pm - Reply

        That map looks like Tuesday to me too.

        Gary on air now. Said rain, or could be freezing rain on Sunday. Stay tuned for details

  29. SnowComander January 5, 2018 at 3:42 pm - Reply
  30. Adam January 5, 2018 at 3:58 pm - Reply

    Yep. Nam is a bit icy. Would likely be mitigated some by temps eventually rising above freezing, but some issues could be had early on.

    • Adam January 5, 2018 at 4:01 pm - Reply

      Actually Nam hovers right around freezing. A few degrees colder, and we could have a real problem. GFS and Euro are about 5 degrees warmer.

  31. Supercell January 5, 2018 at 4:17 pm - Reply

    Even though we haven’t had much measurable snow over the past couple of weeks, the cold weather has been outstanding for making ice! Without snow to insulate the ice, the ponds and lakes have really been ice making machines. I’m a big ice fisherman and our winters in KC are hit or miss on ice fishing, but the last 3-4 days of ice fishing have been phenomenal. Everywhere we fished today had at least 8 1/2 inches of ice with some ponds over 9 inches. Crappie are tearing it up. Up north we start driving on the ice with cars around 9 inches and with trucks around 11 inches so don’t be afraid of ice thickness right now. It’s common in KC for many to not understand ice thickness and that’s probably a good thing, but right now it’s not an issue. Ice fish, ice skate, play hockey…whatever ice sport your into, now is the time to enjoy. If you’re unsure about ice thickness, the Corps of Engineers publishes a general ice thickness guide. 3″ for a man and his gear, 6″ for a man and snow machine, 10″ for a car (although we drive on 8 or more) and 12″ inches for a pickup truck. Believe it or not, KC has 12″ of ice about every 10 – 15 years. We drove our pickup truck on Hillsdale lake in the early 2000. Unfortunately, rain is the enemy of ice. I know we need the moisture but liquid precipitation on Sunday can really cut into ice thickness and curtail our fun. I vote for more cold weather! Let’s keep the ice fishing going!

    • Troy Newman January 5, 2018 at 5:02 pm - Reply

      Have you ever used a battery powered auger? I just ordered one but not sure how it will work. I have always used a hand auger but it a lot of work and I wanted to try something that requires a little less effort.

      • Supercell January 5, 2018 at 5:41 pm - Reply

        Troy – I have a 6” hand drill and a 8” hand drill. The 8” drill cuts a nice hole but requires more effort especially with ice over 8 inches thick. I switch to the 6” drill when ice is this thick and I want to drill a lot holes. For ice 12” or more I would use a gas auger. Sold mine when we moved down here but wow what a difference a gas auger makes. Haven’t tried a battery powered one. Let me know how it works.

    • Gary January 5, 2018 at 5:07 pm - Reply

      It will always scare me, but the ice is now 6 1/2″ thick. This is the first year I can remember where it is actually safe at the moment to ice skate? But, again, I still wouldn’t do it. It will be very dangerous later this month.

      Gary

  32. Adam January 5, 2018 at 4:21 pm - Reply

    18z GFS remains about 5 degrees warmer than the Nam for Sunday. All rain. Still a whiff on next weeks storm as well.

    • Three7s January 5, 2018 at 4:32 pm - Reply

      I still don’t think GFS is handling the cold right. We’ll see.

      • Adam January 5, 2018 at 4:42 pm - Reply

        You absolutely could be right about that.

    • Heat Miser January 5, 2018 at 6:27 pm - Reply

      models cant tell you what will happen a week out with any storm

  33. Richard January 5, 2018 at 5:31 pm - Reply

    Gary
    On air you said if it is 33 on Sunday then there will be no problem on roads with ice.

    But the ground will still be frozen. So black ice could be a problem, even with rain, right ?

    • Adam January 5, 2018 at 5:39 pm - Reply

      Its this cool little invention they call salt. They put it on the roads. Been doing this for awhile now. So no, if its above 32, any treated streets will be just fine.

      • Richard January 5, 2018 at 6:07 pm - Reply

        Adam
        I’m not here asking questions to be mocked or made fun of.
        I will tespect you and your comments. I expect likewise from you.

        • Richard January 5, 2018 at 6:08 pm - Reply

          * respect

    • Blue Flash January 5, 2018 at 5:49 pm - Reply

      It depends on how heavy the rain is. Drizzle would be a problem. Moderate rain would quickly warm up the pavement.

      • Richard January 5, 2018 at 6:08 pm - Reply

        Thanks Blue Flash. Drizzle was my concern.

    • Gary January 5, 2018 at 6:15 pm - Reply

      Richard, It is something to monitor. If it is 33 or 34, then any ice will melt fast, even with the cold ground. If it is still near 32, then the ice will be a problem. Only the NAM model has it cold enough for a problem, but it could be right?

      Gary

    • SnowComander January 5, 2018 at 6:23 pm - Reply

      Richard
      In my opinion, your absolutely correct. Most side streets are not treated. Most HOA’s can’t afford pre-treatments in situations like this. Conditions Sunday with ground temperatures this cold for so long will be treacherous during the onset of any type of moisture. Models show air temps not ground temps.

  34. SnowComander January 5, 2018 at 6:43 pm - Reply

    During an excavation project today we measured the frost line depth at 19 inches in one spot and 14 inches at another. That’s crazy deep for this area.
    Normally I wouldn’t be to concerned with this advancing system, rather small system. But being in the snow removal business for the last 35 years I have some concerns on some people’s beliefs the ground will magically thaw rapidly.
    I guess will see!!!

    • Richard January 5, 2018 at 7:03 pm - Reply

      SnowCommander
      Thanks so much. That was my point.
      19 and 14″ is deep ! How high do temps have to go to thaw that deep.
      Of course we’re not talking about driving on grass or dirt. We’re talking walking or driving on paved untreated surfaces.
      Guess we just wait until Sun morning to see how it pans out.

      I’m ready for a BIG thaw.

  35. Emaw January 5, 2018 at 6:51 pm - Reply

    It’s gotta hit the ground first . . . In other words I’ll believe moisture falling from the sky (in any form) when I see it. I wouldn’t sweat icy roads too much with temps hovering around freezing. Most main thoroughfares around town have been treated so much already they’re white. Can’t wait to report my rainfall total Sunday!

  36. Emaw January 5, 2018 at 7:16 pm - Reply

    Good link for soil temps.
    http://mesonet.k-state.edu/weather/soil/

  37. Emaw January 5, 2018 at 7:19 pm - Reply

    And surface temps.
    http://rwis.ksdot.org/

    • Richard January 5, 2018 at 9:39 pm - Reply

      Thanks again
      Bookmarked both of those !

  38. BSMike January 5, 2018 at 7:46 pm - Reply

    Don’t worry people we ain’t breaking the great drought barrier reef

  39. Adam January 5, 2018 at 9:12 pm - Reply

    0z Nam trended warmer for Sunday. Gets to mid 30’s now by afternoon. Would limit any impacts from ice.

    • Anonymous January 5, 2018 at 10:26 pm - Reply

      Will see lol weather man Adam

      • Adam January 5, 2018 at 11:04 pm - Reply

        Thanks Terry!

        • Terry January 5, 2018 at 11:58 pm - Reply

          wrong person .

  40. Mark January 6, 2018 at 12:52 am - Reply

    Question: if we have say, a quarter-inch of rain with a low of 25 Sunday night, would all that water that falls during the day turn to ice overnight? It’s an important question for everyone going to work and school on Monday morning. Or would the treated roads and runoff be enough to prevent it? currently the forecast is for a low of 25 Sunday night while everyone is sleeping.

    • Gary January 6, 2018 at 7:37 am - Reply

      Mark,

      This is a very good question. Let’s look at what is most likely going to happen. 1) It is likely going to be close to 30 degrees this afternoon, but then this evening we may drop to 25 or so. 2) It appears that there is nearly no chance of anything falling from the sky through the night all the way into 6 AM. 3) by 6 AM just about every model has it up to somewhere between 30 and 32 degree 4) after 6 AM the chance of rain increases. Kansas City is again on the north and western side of where rain is likely, so it may take until 7, 8, or 9 AM before rain begins, but it could start as early as 5 or 6 AM. The earlier it starts, the more likely there will be an initial icing up of elevated surface 5) Temperatures are forecast by most models to rise above freezing as early as 9 or 10 AM, certainly by noon and this would end any icing once this happens.

      Bottom line, we have a big forecast challenge, but any icing would likely be limited and then conditions would improve fast. That initial 2 to 4 hour window is where we MAY have a problem.

      The NAM model continues to be the one model that holds the cold air in longer, and this may very well be the only right model. But, the precipitation amounts are very light on the latest data. So, some icing seems likely, but the problems will be limited to slipping and sliding.

      Gary

  41. Mr. Pete January 6, 2018 at 1:28 am - Reply

    No offense to anyone and safety first but are there really going to be a lot of people out and about early Sunday morning? Just think if this was a Monday morning event, could be way worse….

    • Gary January 6, 2018 at 7:38 am - Reply

      Very good point Pete! It would be much more impacting as most people should just hang out inside, and then by late morning there won’t be any problem at all.

      Gary

  42. Anonymous January 6, 2018 at 9:41 am - Reply

    Mister Gary, how much is a light glaze? One hundredth of an inch?

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