New York City Snow……Dodge City Zero

/New York City Snow……Dodge City Zero

New York City Snow……Dodge City Zero

Good morning bloggers,

I am heading to Austin, TX next week and speaking on “How to have a successful blog: Sharing the Science & Art of Weather”.  What do you love about this weather blog and why is it successful?  I would like to use a couple of your comments in my presentation, so thank you in advance.

I titled today’s blog, “New York City Snow…….Dodge City Zero”.  Take a look at the 8 AM observation in NYC:

Screen Shot 2018-01-04 at 7.17.07 AM

The visibility was down to 1/4 mile with snow. A pure winter wonderland, and of course a lot of headaches for people having to travel or get outside to work.  While NYC is having another snowstorm, Dodge City and Amarillo have yet to have even a dusting of snow. Amarillo has had no rain or snow in over 80 days and Dodge City has had only 0.01″.  What? How is this possible? This year’s weather pattern is how it is possible.

Today’s Weather Video:

Thank you for sharing in this Action Weather Blog experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. We will look at the next two storm systems more in depth in the next blog entry and on 41 Action News tonight. You can always watch our streaming newscasts on KSHB.com.  Please let us know if you have any questions and again please answer my question of why is this blog successful. Have a great day.

Gary

2018-01-05T08:27:41+00:00January 4th, 2018|General|81 Comments

81 Comments

  1. Brian January 4, 2018 at 7:36 am - Reply

    Does anybody else have a South/West facing security camera? I cought quite a bright flash last night around 3:30am – I only have a ground facing view.

    • Ikaika January 4, 2018 at 8:20 am - Reply

      I will check to see if the dash cam in my Honda caught anything. It records and loops even when parked/turned off. Maybe it caught something? Will update later to let you know.

    • Urbanity January 4, 2018 at 8:27 am - Reply

      Another bright flash, seems to be happening more often since it turned cold.

      • Heat Miser January 4, 2018 at 12:33 pm - Reply

        Retina detachment can cause that….see your optometrist.

        • Urbanity January 4, 2018 at 3:51 pm - Reply

          lol, not me, I was responding to Brian’s comment.

  2. Snow Miser January 4, 2018 at 7:37 am - Reply

    I like this blog because you can comment, and the author (sometimes) replies to the comments.

  3. Anonymous January 4, 2018 at 7:41 am - Reply

    Sounds like we will miss the storm again!! I give up on any winter weather here in K.C…..

    • Three7s January 4, 2018 at 7:52 am - Reply

      We may be “missing” the winter portion, but we need the rain and should be taking what we can get. I love snow as much as anybody, but it is what it is.

      • Ikaika January 4, 2018 at 8:25 am - Reply

        To be honest, I still want some snow, but this cold needs to go. My car did not operate well with sub-zero temps. Also, the damn salt all over the roads need to go!

        • Ikaika January 4, 2018 at 8:26 am - Reply

          So hopefully all rain Sunday to wash away the salt.

  4. f00dl3 January 4, 2018 at 7:57 am - Reply

    Question is how long this snow drought can go on. On year 3 now. Can we make 5 years in a row with under 10″ of snow?
    I mean it surely can’t be climate change because Florida got snow – so to me it has more to do with storm tracks than temperatures. We are sure cold enough for it to snow.

    • Three7s January 4, 2018 at 8:00 am - Reply

      Well 3 years in a row is a record, and we’ve already smashed the longest stretch without 3-inch snow record, so what we’re going through is unprecedented, just like how areas in the southeast have never seen snow like this. I know we’ve gotten snow, but you can’t tell me it’s impossible to not get snow here anymore, not after a stretch like this.

      • NoBeachHere January 4, 2018 at 8:10 am - Reply

        Incorrect Three7s, I grew up in Birmingham, it usually snowed atleast once a year, on average they were 2 to 4 inch wet snows. In 1987 to March of 1993, the Birmingham area received less than 4″ until the Blizzard of March 12 & 13 dumped 18″ on us. For 3 to 4 hrs it was thundersnow. As far as after that year, I can’t say, I moved to the beach where it snowed in 94, 95, 97, 99, 02, 06, 08, 09, 10.

        • ClassyCat January 4, 2018 at 9:08 am - Reply

          I don’t think three7 is incorrect. He didn’t really say those areas don’t see snow, but said snow like this. There’s been a couple snows in places that sometimes don’t see snow for years or where they do, it’s happened more frequently than normal.

          • NoBeachHere January 4, 2018 at 9:04 pm - Reply

            I agree

    • Garrett January 4, 2018 at 8:01 am - Reply

      Its simply cycling patterns, look in history, maybe no snow droughts this extensive, BUT were only 2 weeks into winter, gotta wait, and see what happens.

      • f00dl3 January 4, 2018 at 8:23 am - Reply

        The problem is we are only 2 weeks into winter, but we know the pattern. It’s not that it’s too warm to snow – it’s that there is no moisture for snow. Too warm to snow 2 weeks into winter is not as bad, because that means that if things cycle through in February it will be colder. But our problem is not that it’s too warm to snow, it’s that there is NOTHING to cycle through.

        Except maybe that one storm that produced a quarter inch of rain in both cycles.

        • Heat Miser January 4, 2018 at 12:35 pm - Reply

          That is assuming we can predict patterns and thus the winter pattern…which we cant.

          • f00dl3 January 4, 2018 at 5:01 pm - Reply

            Gary / LRC would beg to differ – or should.

    • Troy Newman January 4, 2018 at 8:25 am - Reply

      The 1930’s had about 6 years in a row with less than 8″ in a row (here anyway). Severe droughts of course but outside of that I cannot see anything like that in 120 years of records. In fact we have not had back to back years with less than 10″ of snow since then up here. We did get 16″ in 2016 ( I know KC had less) so we still haven’t had that happen here yet but we are working on it.

      • KS Jones January 4, 2018 at 9:00 am - Reply

        I know the January 20-21, 2016 snowstorm wasn’t impressive in KC, but we got 8″ here (north of Manhattan) and you might have gotten more.
        Good photos on the link.

        http://www.weather.gov/top/WinterStorm2016January20-21
        A winter storm moved across the region beginning Wednesday January 20th and continued through much of the day Thursday January 21, 2016. . . Much of north central Kansas received between 5 and 9 inches of snow with the highest amount of 10 inches coming in from Barnes. . . Below are some images of the snow from around the area. 

        • Troy Newman January 4, 2018 at 10:15 am - Reply

          We got that one and another one on Groundhog day that gave us 6-7″. That one impacted mostly NE but I am only 5 miles from the state line. It dropped 16″ in Hastings, NE. We drove up to go to Sams Club and I remember seeing some huge drifts.

  5. NoBeachHere January 4, 2018 at 8:02 am - Reply

    Informative, puzzling, sarcastic, funny with great Q&A sessions amongst us bloggers who engage one another with occasional humor.

  6. Mary January 4, 2018 at 8:16 am - Reply

    Good morning Gary and team,
    I appreciate the blog because of the way you and your team break it down in relatively easy to understand terms and your knowledge and excitement about meteorology really comes through. I also appreciate the knowledge and questioning nature of the blog comments. It always helps to have questioning minds involved and this blog, for the most part, does that very well

  7. stl78 January 4, 2018 at 8:22 am - Reply

    Air temp here in pepin wi was -17 without a windchill. Fortunately there was not much wind. We have received about 5 to 6 in thus far from lttle clippers. We look to warm into the 20s for the fisrt time in several wks this wknd. Looking fwd to the warm up. Hope u guys get some moisture and a warm up back in kc. Stay warm everyone

  8. Urbanity January 4, 2018 at 8:24 am - Reply

    This blog is successful because your product creates interest in a market that some people are passionate about. The LRC draws enthusiasts in, but the blogger’s (Gary) interaction with members and that you also are very passionate about weather makes for a pretty good discussion board. Lastly, you stay relatively neutral about hot topics and stick to the main topic, the LRC.

    Now, regarding the upcoming storm, it’s a long way off and for the first time I hear the NOAA saying this storm will weaken greatly as it traverses to the east. Obviously the ridge plays a role, but since this storm is able to come on shore at all does this mean the ridge is weakening or changing in some way? If I was a forecaster, I wouldn’t even think of adding a chance of weather in my forecast for an event 8-9 days from now (unless ratings were down) given the ridge and given the precipitation shield is relatively small and could end up anywhere with this Jan 12 storm.

  9. Troy Newman January 4, 2018 at 8:49 am - Reply

    What I like about this blog is that it is not only informative but friendly for the most part. Gary and his team have a unique forecasting tool that I think will become more accepted by others with time. Its not as simple as just plugging in a bunch of dates and making a forecast but it is a major step forward in long range forecasting. Despite this Gary and his team are not arrogant and pretend they have all the answers. I subscribed to a different long range service before this and the attitude was very different. Gary will treat you like you matter if you ask him a question and you can comment on here without fear of being criticized too much. There are also some other folks on the blog that have a wealth of information to share and frequently take the time to post their thoughts and observations.

  10. Snow Miser January 4, 2018 at 8:51 am - Reply

    Now even the NAM is showing Sunday’s precipitation forming to the south of us. Can’t get a break.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE January 4, 2018 at 9:23 am - Reply

      Not the NAM I’m looking at? Looks like St. Joe will be on the very northern fringe, but KC looks to get a nice rain and points south getting a little more. Models runs look encouraging for Cali as well, maybe that will be a good indicator for us and the rest of the “have not” areas for cycle #3. I think this Sunday storm and the one following are battling to be the Signature storm of this LRC. The systems look functional and I can see how in the Spring these will be severe weather days almost guaranteed. Not every front is wet in the spring and summer due to many factors such as capping but I’ve seen enough of them to think we will be ok this summer, especially since they appear to be strong fronts with big punches of cold air. That wont be so bad in June/July/ August.

      • Three7s January 4, 2018 at 9:58 am - Reply

        Yeah, I’d be shocked if we have any kind of heat wave this summer. The only way that happens is if that western ridge meanders towards the Midwest, which could happen, but if it does, it shouldn’t last that long. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, we’ll get our rain in the spring and summer, just as we have every other year.

        • Urbanity January 4, 2018 at 10:17 am - Reply

          Drought and heat go together, I’d be shocked if we don’t have both. I commented about the similar analog years according to Bastardi and they were all drought years,

      • Troy Newman January 4, 2018 at 10:32 am - Reply

        I am no weather man but I have hope in what both of you are saying here. Last year I think we really got lucky. We had constant ridging but somehow our storms seemed to kind of undercut that ridge even in January. The main ridge has been to our West most of this LRC. I feel like the main missing ingredient is just moisture which is usually in short supply in the winter anyway. Early the fronts went through wet. Starting the LRC we had good rains, then they moved a little further East each week until they were East of everybody. Now it may be really dry for a while in the spring. Hume has a lot better chance of rain in April than I do but by May perhaps it will change. We start getting storms out of the NW by June and at that time I am not sure whether this pattern looks as bad as it does in winter.

    • Heat Miser January 4, 2018 at 12:37 pm - Reply

      nobody much thought this weekend would be any kind of significant snow producer for us…not that I heard anyway. Gary seems to think the 12th works with his LRC for a storm for us…50% chance. Although, that is a safe prediction either way as he is just as right with 50% whether it snows or not.

  11. Patti January 4, 2018 at 8:57 am - Reply

    What I enjoy about this blog, Gary, is the deep dive. Going into specifics on the why’s and why not’s that there’s just no time for in a 3 minute broadcast on tv. I don’t comment often, but I read every word! It has led to a greater understanding of weather patterns. I am in the lawn care business and it helps in planning.

  12. Farmgirl January 4, 2018 at 9:00 am - Reply

    Your blog is successful Gary because you are committed to it. This is what I enjoy, a top 5 list:
    1. Blog is very timely and consistent. New blog is written most days before 9AM CT, allowing me to read before getting corporate work day started.
    2. Communication is outstanding. Explanations about weather events and terminology is done very well.
    3. Interactive with your audience.
    4. Utilize various tools to extend the reach of your message such as video’s, Facebook, and other social media platforms.
    5. Your passion and enthusiasm is extraordinary which draws in a loyal fan base.

    • Urbanity January 4, 2018 at 10:18 am - Reply

      I would tend to agree completely with your top 5.

      • REAL HUMEDUDE January 4, 2018 at 11:59 am - Reply

        Hey Keith – Off topic, heard a Scotty McCreery song called “5 minutes”
        Made me think of you and your wife, hope that situation is improving in 2018 and you make some progress

        • Urbanity January 4, 2018 at 3:55 pm - Reply

          Thanks Hume I will check it out. Appreciate the well wishes.

  13. Michael Casteel January 4, 2018 at 9:39 am - Reply

    What I like about the Blog that no matter what background we all come from that we unite in one common denominator. Weather! It is a passion that we all hold dear to our hearts. Some of us, like myself work out in it, others just enjoy it. For me in this crazy world we live in, this Blog gives me a place to see how everyone is effected by the weather. Some wish for warm, others cold. Some for sunshine, others cloudy. Lots of snow or warm fresh cut spring lawn. No matter what, we can all experience this together, agree or disagree. But the bottom line is weather is a passion for all who blog! Thanks to Gary and his whole staff who keeps this blog going. God bless this Blog, Bloggers, and our great Nation!
    Michael

  14. Kathy January 4, 2018 at 10:14 am - Reply

    This blog has taught me a lot about weather. Gary does a great job explaining how things work, and he allows input from his audience. There are a lot of smart people who contribute to the blog and I love the dialog back and forth between everyone. I do not like weather blogs which prohibit comments. To me, comments are part of a good blog. When are all sick of boring weather or excited about a storm, this blog is a great place to share our emotions. For example, I am super frustrated about another boring winter, but at least I am not alone and can see that everyone else feels the same way.

    With that said, could someone explain to me how a good wet storm can come into SoCal with that stupid ridge in place? I am wondering if this might help to break it down or if it is a result of a possible pattern change. Thanks.

  15. C.C January 4, 2018 at 11:08 am - Reply

    Gary do you think the east coast should be concerned about this storm coming back during hurricane season?

    • REAL HUMEDUDE January 4, 2018 at 11:30 am - Reply

      By hurricane season the jet is way up north and this storm will be in Canada. So it wont be the same Noreaster in the warmer months, so it’s got next to zero chance of ever becoming a tropical system.

  16. C.C January 4, 2018 at 11:37 am - Reply

    Thanks homedude forgot about the jet stream playing a factor.

  17. Kerrie January 4, 2018 at 11:52 am - Reply

    I felt compelled to post in response to Gary’s question for his upcoming conference. I fully agree with Farmgirl’s Top 5 list above – well done!

    For several years now, my boys who were in their early teens and are now 19 and 22 years old, we have read this blog and learned so much about weather, patterns, and science! The science is put in terms that are easily understood and able to be further researched through some basic web searches. The science and data is not presented in a way that places students of meteorology, regardless of their age, at a disadvantage. Gary and team have never talked down to the audience!

    I love the banter in the blog and the way many of the long time blog responders can turn around any negativity as we are all here for the same reason – to learn and experience the joy of weather! Good luck with your presentation, Gary!

    • Heat Miser January 4, 2018 at 12:40 pm - Reply

      I like that Gary often responds directly to bloggers and the he clearly shares his love of weather with us. He also is very professional in his responses at all times, yet not TOO formal.

  18. Elaine Watson January 4, 2018 at 12:25 pm - Reply

    I enjoy connecting with others who are fascinated by the weather. I love learning from Gary and believe he is the reason this blog is very successful.

  19. Dave LS January 4, 2018 at 12:44 pm - Reply

    His love and passion for the weather is truly off the charts, and that’s why this is such a great place to learn.

  20. stl78 January 4, 2018 at 1:11 pm - Reply

    The Euro, can,and gfs all seem to be narrowing in on this. Amts and exact location obviously far from being determined. The 12z euro paints a couple in in kc with higher amts to your nw. Still plenty of time to track!

  21. Snow Miser January 4, 2018 at 1:20 pm - Reply

    There’s snow bands in NW Missouri on the radar.

  22. Rockdoc January 4, 2018 at 1:24 pm - Reply

    For those of you who may be interested, here is some information on how the meteorological “bombs” form.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/01/03/no-need-to-duck-and-cover-this-is-the-bomb-cyclone-explained/?tid=a_inl&utm_term=.65832ac9513f

    Pretty cool videos too.

    Fortunately we do not get these wicked bad boy storms here in the plains. Instead, we get the wicked twister storms. As for next week’s storm, the latest GFS model run shows the surface low developing over the south-central plains of Colorado on Wednesday the 10th, and then moving into central Kansas around midnight with rain in the Kansas City area. The core of the low appears to weaken by the time it moves overhead near Kansas City, with wrap-around snow starting about noon on Thursday. Looks like we may get about 1 inch of snow out of this system. If the low pressure zone were to move slightly south we could get more snow. Should be interesting to see if this verifies.

    Gary, I know that you and the rest of the Weather 2020 folks work real hard to make this blog work. I sure do appreciate what everyone does even though we do not see what goes on in the background. Jeff’s weather blogs also add a lot to Weather 2020. So KUDOs to your team. I come here to learn about and discuss weather mostly, but what also makes this blog work are all of the participants and what they add. I’ve learned about farming and ranching, taking care of the railroads, and how to keep your yards looking great. I’ve learned about Kansas History and weather history – thanks to those folks who have the records and know how to run the stats! So here’s to the entire Weather 2020 community, because you all make it work! 🙂

  23. Brad January 4, 2018 at 1:41 pm - Reply

    Is there like a backup link to the Euro??? I keep going to the wx.graphics site and it keeps telling me that it can’t be found

  24. stl78 January 4, 2018 at 1:50 pm - Reply

    Brad. Both of the sites(free) i used have since been removed. I think rock said she used weather.us i think and it was free. Im using accuwxpro (pay)

  25. REAL HUMEDUDE January 4, 2018 at 2:01 pm - Reply

    I’ll be darned, GFS and NAM trending further south for Sunday. Sorry Kurt, looks to miss you sad to say. Almost misses KC completely, let’s not panic off this run alone. Next week’s storm Alot more iffy as well

    • Adam January 4, 2018 at 2:55 pm - Reply

      Again, why would we expect any different?? This has been the trend for months now. I don’t necessarily agree with everything HeatMiser says, but when it comes to models showing ANYTHING of significance more than 5 days out, it should not be bought into. This is a dry dry pattern, and maybe it changes come spring time.

      • REAL HUMEDUDE January 4, 2018 at 4:26 pm - Reply

        It would be different because this is cycle 3 now, and it WILL act much more like cycle #1 did which was pretty darned wet in my area anyway. Like I said not to worried from 1 model run, I think KC proper gets at least some rain Sunday buy maybe only 1/4-1/3″ totals. Still not a snowy pattern though

    • Kurt January 4, 2018 at 2:55 pm - Reply

      I am not shocked that we might miss Sunday’s system. Why ruin a good thing, let the street sweepers clean off the salt in the spring unless mother nature can get it’s act together. I would rather have a good soaking rain when the ground thaws and get some moisture into the top soils again, but just have to wait out this darned dry spell.

    • Heat Miser January 4, 2018 at 6:39 pm - Reply

      lets be honest…all storms have been iffy around KC.

  26. Rockdoc January 4, 2018 at 2:36 pm - Reply

    Apparently Dr. Ryan Maue left Weatherbell and since he was in charge of the models and graphing results, he took this with him. I saw chatter on line that he may or maynot keep them up on Weatherbell. Since I don’t subscribe there I don’t know what the status is. He then set up Weather.US as an option to Weatherbell. Apparently had initially started with the weather.wx site, but I saw on Twitter only a few days ago that he has not finished migrating everything over to the new Weather.US site. Items that have already migrated cannot be pulled up via the previous link.

    So yes, see my previous links that will hook you into the Euro and the GFS. You will need to play around with it at first to figure out how it works in terms of model run time, hours into the model run, parameters to look at, and if you want to go to specific state/county you can do this and even just zoom from the CONUS map.

    Have fun……Rockdoc 🙂

  27. Holly T January 4, 2018 at 2:38 pm - Reply

    Gary gets you excited about the weather! That’s why this blog works! He pumps you up to read the blog on the evening news and learn more about approaching systems and then explains things in a fascinating, yet easily understandable to the layman, way.

  28. Urbanity January 4, 2018 at 4:05 pm - Reply

    Here we go again, for the Jan 12th storm from the NOAA:

    “UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY FROM DAY 5 ONWARD, WITH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE MAKING A RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITH RESPECT TO ENERGY OFF THE WEST COAST ON DAY 5 (TUE) AND WHETHER A CUTOFF UPPER LOW DEVELOPS”.

    They are trending much drier for most of the ridge affected area, and indicating the likelihood of a faster moving trough across the country which in turn moves us quickly back into the very dry pattern we have been in.

    • Terry January 4, 2018 at 4:42 pm - Reply

      Maybe Not

  29. Kim January 4, 2018 at 4:19 pm - Reply

    I love this blog because Gary does such a great job of sharing his knowledge and insights. He also doesn’t ‘dumb it down’, and even if I don’t understand what the heck he is talking about, I greatly appreciate that he takes this approach. He posts everyday with new content and the comment section is courteous, funny, and just as worthy of a read as the blog itself.

  30. Terry January 4, 2018 at 4:41 pm - Reply

    The GFS 18z now shows the Low a bit farther south and put the some of the metro interstate I 35 Line and west I. Ice/snow mix on 11th/12th for next week’s Storm

    • Heat Miser January 4, 2018 at 6:41 pm - Reply

      Lets talk on the 9th

      • Tdogg January 4, 2018 at 6:51 pm - Reply

        Why are you still here? You said you wwere leaving the blog…plus why aren’t you in school?

        • Clint January 4, 2018 at 7:06 pm - Reply

          Tdogg go back home to your mom’s house

        • Heat Miser January 4, 2018 at 11:17 pm - Reply

          Just because I love to troll the troll…that would be you.

  31. stl78 January 4, 2018 at 6:58 pm - Reply

    Play nice!

  32. Michael Garner January 4, 2018 at 7:04 pm - Reply

    What happened to Saturday being 40? Gary was giving other forecasters a jab the other morning on the radio about them changing their high temp forecast for Saturday and was “matter of fact” it will be 40 or 41 I think he said and now the forecast is 26? That’s a big change in the forecast?

    • Bobbie January 4, 2018 at 7:48 pm - Reply

      Hmmmm. I had the same thoughts. Oops I guess haha

      • Michael Garner January 4, 2018 at 7:52 pm - Reply

        I just know it’s not easy to predict the future weather events or temps. With that said I was surprised to hear the bashing and then just over 48 hours later the temp forecast is lowered by some 14 degrees, maybe tomorrow it goes back to the 40 degree forecast.

  33. Brian watson January 4, 2018 at 8:06 pm - Reply

    I’ve learned to persevere from this blog. No matter how many times he’s wrong he comes out with the next forecast with such confidence.

  34. Darin January 4, 2018 at 8:16 pm - Reply

    Gary,

    I have been a weather enthusiast since I was a kid. Storms and weather and how they occur in nature with a pattern is something no one has ever talked about. I have been fascinated with weather since the early 90’s and then you came on the air in the mid 90’s I believe. Your love of weather and helping the every day enthusiast is infectious and you have a gift of making the weather fun and enjoyable for everyone. I have watched you from the beginning. I lived in KC my entire life of 37 years and moved to Houston about 3 years ago. I still follow your blog because of how engaging and interactive it is with everyone. Your LRC theory is unique to anyone out there and while it’s not perfect, it is real! Each year your logic, patterns, and science continue to show more and more relevance and accuracy with each passing year. And after all this time, you still make it fun and have the same passion as you did 20 years ago. That is a rare trait in this world and just shows how much you love what you do. I rarely have ever posted over the years but wanted to express my gratitude for making one of my favorite topics so fun. After living in another city and seeing how weather is covered in other places, KC has no idea how lucky they are to have you.

    Thank you

  35. Bill in Lawrence January 4, 2018 at 8:54 pm - Reply

    Gary:

    Good Thursday evening to you sir.

    I may be too late with this, but here are a couple of thoughts. First of all you are passionate about the weather and want to pass your knowledge and passion onto others. You also care about the blog as it is a perfect forum for you to pass along this passion and knowledge. Therefore, you put a tremendous amount of time and effort to write very in depth blog entries that give readers explanations for the weather at hand. You also make real attempts to connect with the Bloggers and help to create a community atmosphere. Finally all these things lead to bloggers themselves creating a community and discussing things with each other.

    In the end, there are so many wow things one can do with computers for a blog, but for me, it is the passion and desire to teach a subject you are so deeply interested in as well as the work ethic to create in depth blog entries and the daily interaction to create a community.

    On a weather note, I will respectfully argue, not knowing what the 0Z NAM of GFS is showing, that I wind up with between 1/4 and 1/2 inch of qpf on Sunday/Monday. This storm performed in some fashion in cycle 1, and I think it will be further north than some of today’s runs have shown as it was in cycle 1 and will produce at least a 1/4 of an inch. For cycle 2, a 1/4 inch of qpf is like a minor flood!!!

    Finally, I am going ot catch flack here but I do think it is a bit early to already put this winter into the books as the trifecta of snowless winters. I would respectfully argue that there ar 2-3 chances of a snow event before the cold part comes back through and then there will be at least an 8-10 day window of the cold part that could produce 1-2 more snow events and then we have early cyle 4. So all in all,I would respectfully argue that we have at least 4-6 set ups in cycle 3 and then 1-2 in cycle 4 that could produce snow or at least wintery weather. I am sticking by my 13-15 for Lawrence as well as my call at school that we will have at least one snow day this year. We will know come April 1st.

    Yes, again, the crow and clown suit are waiting!!!!! 🙂

    Have a great evenign everyone

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

  36. marlina10 January 4, 2018 at 9:09 pm - Reply

    To those talking about flashes in the sky, there is a meteor shower going on right now, perhaps your camera caught an impressive one

  37. Adam January 4, 2018 at 9:40 pm - Reply

    The LRC has so many issues. It can show when a storm should be around, but it has zero accuracy when it comes to strength and positioning from cycle to cycle.I will credit Gary for sticking his nose out, but even recently the LRC whiffed on temps for this weekend. About 5 days ago Gary was touting it would likely go “50 or even higher” this weekend in KC, and that’s not even going to come close to happening. We might be lucky to get above freezing on Sunday.

    If you can’t accurately predict accurately a week out using the LRC, how can you possibly even fathom knowing what is going to occur in any one area from cycle to cycle?

    • JoeK January 4, 2018 at 10:41 pm - Reply

      Adam,

      I don’t even know where to begin to try and explain, but here is my best shot. The LRC sets up in October, with each cycle that passes, Gary and his team gain confidence in their understanding of the current LRC patterns and cycles and as a result, their forecast accuracy increases with each month. This has been observed by many on this blog for the past several years. Now, I certainly understand your skepticism as I too was questioning the validity of it when I first began learning. The more I studied, the more I understood and began seeing the brilliance behind the cycling theory. Is it 100% accurate?, of course not and Gary never claimed it to be. As for myself, I have witnessed the accuracy as well as the missed forecasts and have used it to awe my friends and family. So to sum it up, keep watching and try and keep an open mind so that you can make a full assessment over the course of a year. It is complicated to account for seasonal variances, twists and harmonics. I will leave that explanation up to Gary 😀

  38. Emaw January 4, 2018 at 9:51 pm - Reply

    I’ve been following this blog since it’s inception back in the early 2000’s I think? (Gary correct me if my timing is off) I’ve always had an interest in weather and have worked outside for 30 years so this was a quick and easy way to get weather info without watching the news. Kudos to all the stats folks that roll out the numbers on here, outstanding! And thank you Gary for not booting me off the blog because I hate snow and like to throw around the “Jack Squat” phrase from time to time. Educational, entertaining open forum for all opinions. Now how about some zonal flow baby!

  39. JoeK January 4, 2018 at 11:03 pm - Reply

    Gary,

    For me, this blog represents the future of learning by educating people that would otherwise rely solely on media for daily weather. To provide a platform for all to study, learn and discuss a field of science that in some way, impacts each and every one of us. Prior to this blog, many would look up into the sky and see nothing more than clouds, lightning, storms, snow and hear thunder. Now, many can identify an MCS, know the difference between cumulonimbus and cumulus clouds, understand what causes thunder and lightning and explain why we go from sleet to freezing rain to snow. Many on here can now look at weather models and understand what they are attempting to predict.Weather2020 has turned an average ordinary individual into a weather enthusiast that often attracts the attention of and gains respect from family and friends. In its own way, it helps to promote safety by educating the average person in weather awareness. The more an individual understands, the more respect they show to the potential dangers. Just my humble 2 cents

  40. Nicholas January 5, 2018 at 12:04 am - Reply

    Gary as for my opinions, I think the most successful thing about this blog is the authors, You and Jeff have done a fantastic job of keeping the blog up to date, almost 365 days a year, the passion that you have for weather really shows through( I remember seeing you rooting for the storms when I was a kid when you were at the other station) and as a kid whom loved weather I knew that you were my favorite forecaster. I think the only negatives that I see are some of the attacks and “trolling” posts that have come up over the years, but I also know from other forums on the net, that stuff is hard to get away from, and I like being able to post and comment on the blog despite some of the “bad behavior” that occasionally arises. Thank you for this blog and being able to have a place to talk and think about weather with you and the weather fans that come here.
    As for this winter, well, we at least have had the cold and we did have an inch and some change snow that stayed on the ground for almost a week and a half here( now it is really sublimating away) but we are having some winter, as for the “dryness” and the snow, well I am just going to hang in there and see what cycle three does, if cycle three flops then yes it may be yet another VLS winter( very low snow winter) wich in my view would be a winter here with 10 or less of snow. but hey maybe we will get lucky, as for the moisture, well things can turn around in the spring and I do hope so because IF it is going to be a dry pattern as a whole then the forming drought would get a nice jumping off point from this dry winter, I think the wetness in Oct. is a decent sign that this pattern will produce when there is more moisture availiable. ( even if it is a very dry winter pattern) but if the wet period is a 17 day stretch every other cycle or so then it could still be a challenge, but for now I will hope that the pattern will turn wetter in the spring and summer.

  41. stl78 January 5, 2018 at 7:41 am - Reply

    -22 air temp here currently. Have been workin since 2am because of broken rails. This cold is creating alot of rail breaks and our trains are at a standstill. Sooooo ready for a warm up!

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