You Can Not Draw Up A Worse Pattern For The Plains States

/You Can Not Draw Up A Worse Pattern For The Plains States

You Can Not Draw Up A Worse Pattern For The Plains States

Good morning bloggers,

The day again begins way below zero near KC.  It was -6 degrees for a few hours overnight. It will be warming up to near 20 degrees today. Let’s look at this weather pattern that is so very dry in many areas.

What we are experiencing at this moment is bordering on the incredible. Unfortunately for us in the plains, we have to throw in another word; boring. This is incredibly boring if you live in Kansas so far. Okay, let’s throw in another word; frustrating!  I do not think I could draw up a worse pattern for the plains, and the results are again, bordering on the incredibly boring and frustrating.

Extreme Dryness:

  • Amarillo, TX:  80-days with no measurable rain or snow. Since October 13th, the total is a trace. Since October 6th, the total is o.o6″.
  • Dodge City, KS:  Since October 6th, 0.01″ has fallen.  
  • Kansas City, MO:  4.50″ of rain fell between October 7th and October 22nd.  In the 71 days since October 22nd,  o.46″ has fallen.  

The lack of snow may be more wide spread than you think. Amarillo and Dodge City share the very low snowfall totals with many other locations.  Wichita, KS has yet to have even a few snowflakes.  Chicago, IL is still sitting at 5″ of snow for the season, better than Kansas City, but that is still way below average for this time of the year.  Denver has a very low total, and Goodland, KS is still sitting at under 2″ of snow. Goodland averages around one foot by now.

This next storm is an example of why I titled the blog “you can not draw up a worse pattern for the plains states”.  Could this change and start producing precipitating storm systems? Sure it can. Last winters pattern suddenly turned wet in a few spots as spring began. And, it was not what I expected it to do. If you really dive into last years pattern, and look at the results, most areas actually did stay dry in the spring and summer. Only areas around Kansas City had the much wetter conditions. The chance of a significant drought developing are high.  Now, look at this next storm system:

The Weather Pattern at 500 mb (18,000 feet above sea level) at 6 AM this morning:

1

There is a trough swinging across Kansas and Missouri this morning, stretching back into Colorado and Utah. Yes, we have a storm that is as positively tilted (tilted backwards or from east to west) as it can get.  And, this trough is actually about to become an intense storm.  I know, that is hard to believe right?

2This extremely positively tilted trough will be barely visible as it passes overhead this morning. By 6 PM tonight, it will begin going through a massive transition. How this happens from now through Thursday is a microcosm of what has been happening since October.  The wave coming into the Great Lakes will help produce some snow up there, and this extremely positively tilted trough will gradually turn the corner and transition into the exact opposite. It will become a negatively tilted trough and a major storm.  Will it form close enough to the east coast, or could it end up too far offshore to impact the big cities. Either way, I would love to have this forecast problem. We have yet to have a major winter storm to discuss in our area, near KC.  Our snowflake contest had over 13,000 people enter. We are down to 1,161 people left in the contest and by the end of January we will be down to around 100 entries left. By the end of February it will be down to around 10 entries or so, but I have to double check that number.

Take a look at what happens to this trough next.  By Thursday morning the storm system that was so severely positively tilted will become a fast moving and very negatively tilted system.  It appears it will be just a bit too far east for any major impacts on the big cities. This is something to monitor closely.  This next map is valid at 6 AM Thursday:

3

This pattern is so “bad” right now, unless you like cold and dry weather.  Or, maybe you live near the east coast or across the deep south where the weather has been much more exciting. This next storm, however, appears that most of the energy will be just offshore as a major surface cyclone forms with the wave that is actually tracking over KC today.

5

The third cycle of this years LRC begins soon.  Maybe this third cycle will see things turn around, but confidence is shaky at the moment that it will.  There a storm showing up for later this weekend. Ahead of this system warmer air will be drawn in, and there is a chance of 40 degrees or higher by Saturday afternoon for the Chiefs playoff game against the Titans.  We will look into all of this on 41 Action News.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go join in the conversation on the Weather2020 blog as we share in this weather experience. Happy New Year!

Gary

2018-01-03T09:33:06+00:00January 2nd, 2018|General|68 Comments

68 Comments

  1. Three7s January 2, 2018 at 8:00 am - Reply

    Unless something drastic changes in cycle 3, my 8.5 inch snow prediction looks to be spot on.

    • Gary January 2, 2018 at 8:39 am - Reply

      We are a long ways off from your 8.5 inch prediction. And, we are a long ways off from being excited about the weather. This next storm is going to be fun to track………for NYC.

      Gary

    • Urbanity January 2, 2018 at 10:37 am - Reply

      Does anyone really think it’s going to snow this year? Gary I hate to say it, but your snowfall forecast will be about 16″ too high….I’m thinking 5″ max, probably less than 2″ out here west of Salina (before March 1st, after March it really doesn’t count because by then it’s just white rain…gone in a day or two).

      • Gary January 2, 2018 at 10:54 am - Reply

        Maybe we will get a 21 inch March snowstorm? I am just kidding. No, you are right. This is just horrible. I did not see this coming, for it to be this ridiculously bad. Let’s hope for a better cycle 3, or we are in trouble. Sometimes, after the jet stream reaches peak strength, the AO and NAO could dip. This peak strength occurs in late January and early February.

        I feel like I am grasping at straws now.

        Gary

      • Joe January 2, 2018 at 2:33 pm - Reply

        My 4 inch estimate is looking pretty good right now!

  2. Michael Casteel January 2, 2018 at 8:31 am - Reply

    Back to back -15 degree mornings! I have been at work thawing pipes for three days now. Please bring some warmer weather Mother Nature! Stay warm bloggers!
    Michael

  3. Heat Miser January 2, 2018 at 8:58 am - Reply

    LoL…broken record. I’ll be back when we have some interesting weather to talk about.

    • Tdogg January 2, 2018 at 9:04 am - Reply

      Buh bye!!!

      • Terry January 2, 2018 at 9:27 am - Reply

        Tdogg I think you get kick of about it being dry don’t you ?

      • Heat Miser January 2, 2018 at 2:28 pm - Reply

        LoL..yeah, he enjoys trolling.

        • Brian watsob January 2, 2018 at 8:11 pm - Reply

          Pretty sure you’re the troll

  4. Kathy January 2, 2018 at 9:07 am - Reply

    So, would this year’s LRC be directly affected by the ridge on the west coast? In other words, if it weren’t for this ridge, would this LRC be much more exciting? It seems to me that the father away from the ridge one is, the more exciting the weather. Those poor folks in CA aren’t going to have a rainy season this year, and we are going to have another dry, boring winter. Seems like that ridge has been around for as long as I’ve been reading this blog. Like Heat, I may be back when it gets more exciting…whenever that is. Not your fault Gary, just the way it is.

    • Three7s January 2, 2018 at 9:17 am - Reply

      Correct, the main reason for the boring weather here points west is the western ridge.

      • REAL HUMEDUDE January 2, 2018 at 9:21 am - Reply

        the LRC this year IS the ridge out west, its the alpha and everything else is a result of that darned ridge interfering. I still see plenty of ways we get ample precip this growing season, its too early to call that.

  5. REAL HUMEDUDE January 2, 2018 at 9:19 am - Reply

    How do temps go below zero? I know its tied to the dew point, and temps cannot go below dew point. But how is there a negative dew point? How can there be LESS than a complete lack of moisture such as a 0 degree dew point would suggest? I see how there can be absolutely zero measureable moisture in the atmosphere, but how is there less than zero? IT doesn’t make sense from a physics standpoint, so, therefore, I find this cold weather to be impossible and demand it stop doing this at once!

    • Gary January 2, 2018 at 10:50 am - Reply

      Humedude,

      The 0° is just the Fahrenheit scale. There will be minute amounts of water vapor available, all the way down to around 40 degrees below zero. 40 below °F is also 40 below °C. They are the same. The Dakota’s had a few inches of snow this past week with temperatures near 0. We have had a few inches of snow and even sleet with near 0 degrees a few years ago in early March. For KC, unfortunately, we can’t get anything exciting to happen. I just looked at the GFS through day 12, and it again took me around 3 seconds to analyze. NOTHING. This is “painful” for us winter weather enthusiasts, shoot, for us weather enthusiasts whether we like winter or not. I just did not see this coming. Maybe, just maybe cycle 3 will look better than this first look on the current models, as we are moving into cycle three during this next ten days or so.

      Gary

    • numb3rsguy January 2, 2018 at 10:52 am - Reply

      The Fahrenheit scale is not an absolute scale of temperature. Zero degrees F does not mean the dew point can’t be lower and that there is no moisture in the air. The equivalent absolute scale of temperature for Fahrenheit is Rankin. To convert from Fahrenheit to Rankin, you add 459.67. At 0 Rankin, you can’t get any colder (absolute zero), and you can’t get a dew point lower than that. So even if the dewpoint is -20 F, the dew point is still 439.67 Rankin, and can thus hold moisture. Although, air holds exponentially more water as it gets warmer, so 100% humidity at 0 degrees might have 10 times less water than at 50 degrees, and 100 times less than at 100 degrees. I could look up the actual numbers, but that was just an example. Either way, dew points below 20 degrees or so are still considered “bone dry”. At my house this morning the humidity was 72%, but the dew point was -21 degF, so it still feels dry. Exact numbers can be found on the psychometric charts.

    • KS Jones January 2, 2018 at 11:17 am - Reply

      I don’t think a negative dew point suggests negative moisture.
      See Manhattan’s 3 day weather history to see the interaction of temperature, dew points and relative humidity.
      http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KMHK.html

      • KS Jones January 2, 2018 at 2:01 pm - Reply

        Hmmm… I got distracted for about one-half hour when the mail came, and by the time I got around to hitting the post comment button, you had already gotten two good explanations.
        I have reasons to check the relative humidity from time to time, but I rarely check dew points. Dew points are just too fickle.

  6. Lary Gezak January 2, 2018 at 9:25 am - Reply

    This is actually quite comical. An upper level low tracking directly south of KC? The perfect spot for us to get snow? Could it happen?!

    Nope. It’ll be too warm. After two straight weeks of below freezing, it will be too warm.

    Bring on spring…

    • Mike January 2, 2018 at 9:28 am - Reply

      Please look at the positive, we will have moisture. New year, new attitude!!! Happy New Year

      Mike

    • REAL HUMEDUDE January 2, 2018 at 9:42 am - Reply

      Last time I checked we got big snows when the system tracked into NE Oklahoma. What’s going on these past few years?

      • Urbanity January 2, 2018 at 9:50 am - Reply

        IMO, positively tilted doesn’t allow moisture to be pulled north in time for Kansas to receive the rain/snow. Our storms have to come out of the 4 corners and be negatively tilted to pull gulf moisture during the winter for the big events. KC generally has enough moisture though to receive some snow even when the storm is positively tilted, but generally it will have progress nearer to KC not through Oklahoma.

    • Heat Miser January 2, 2018 at 2:28 pm - Reply

      LoL…bring on spring? Winter just started.

      • Lary Gezak January 2, 2018 at 5:17 pm - Reply

        Thought you were leaving the blog, Heat?

  7. Urbanity January 2, 2018 at 9:44 am - Reply

    I am wondering why the NOAA is favoring above average precip for days 6-14 here in Kansas. Doesn’t seem logical, last time the NOAA showed this was for the Christmas week, we know how that turned out. With that said, the NOAA tends to be relatively accurate with that forecast, but when you read their long term prognosis they have repeatedly said there are uncertainties abound in this weather pattern. I think this big circular flow weather pattern (for lack of better terminology) is unique in a lot of ways, I believe Gary even said he hadn’t seen this unique pattern in his 30 years of meteorology, and because of this pattern the weather models do not have the data set from a historical perspective to accurately predict what will occur beyond a few days. I think by adding in analytical analysis we can say with some degree of accuracy that it is unlikely precipitation will occur in certain areas. I would be curious if this weather pattern mimics any from the 30’s, when there was excessive heat and cold and dryness.

    One last thing, the AO, NAO, PNA ensemble forecast from last Friday thru today changed dramatically, now it appears unlikely we’ll see any negative movement in the next two weeks.

    • Gary January 2, 2018 at 10:51 am - Reply

      They shouldn’t be! This is ridiculous. They must have used the one model that had some precipitation on it. I just don’t see it yet.

      Gary

    • Troy Newman January 2, 2018 at 1:02 pm - Reply

      I looked at snow totals from back over 100 years and the 30s were not just dry in the summer but also the winter as snow totals were very low for about 7 or 8 years. I read once that one big factor in the 30s was that the low level jet was pushing more into Mexico instead of North into the Plains. There had to be some upper air features that were causing the dry winters as well however. Can you imagine the crazy hysteria we would see today if that type of weather happened again?

  8. Mr. Pete January 2, 2018 at 11:34 am - Reply

    Cold and dry – hope the bugs are at least taking a hit…

    • Rockdoc January 2, 2018 at 12:18 pm - Reply

      What bugs, they’re all frozen. Nice and crunchy…yum, yum.

      • Mr. Pete January 2, 2018 at 6:43 pm - Reply

        Hope so.

  9. Rockdoc January 2, 2018 at 12:16 pm - Reply

    Oh ye of little faith. Here is the total precipitation through next Tuesday morning via the EURO:

    https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/kansas/acc-total-precipitation/20180109-1200z.html

    And here is the GFS:

    https://weather.us/model-charts/standard/kansas/acc-total-precipitation/20180109-1200z.html

    And for a totally new model perspective, here is the German model.

    https://weather.us/model-charts/german/kansas/acc-total-precipitation/20180109-1200z.html

    For a final bit of excitement, here is the snowfall depth ending on Tuesday 6 am. This is the EURO and the German model looks similar.

    https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/kansas/snow-depth-in/20180109-1200z.html

    Sunday is when the rain comes in with snow developing on Sunday night into Monday. To be sure, the GFS model shows less rain than the others, so it will be interesting to see which one verifies, if any, and if it will snow!

    Cheers 😊

  10. Rockdoc January 2, 2018 at 12:17 pm - Reply

    Yo Gary, I’m in mod.

  11. Troy Newman January 2, 2018 at 1:16 pm - Reply

    Gary,
    If you saw these same type of set ups with a constant NW flow in the summer months would you be more bullish or rainfall then? Of is this just a bad pattern for all seasons? Also do you believe that the warm water off the CA coast is responsible for the ridging? It seems those two things have been very common the past few years.

    • Troy Newman January 2, 2018 at 1:17 pm - Reply

      Man horrible typing. Meant bullish on rainfall

  12. Bill in Lawrence January 2, 2018 at 1:17 pm - Reply

    Gary:

    Happy Chilly Tuesday to you sir!!

    A couple of random thoughts….

    I think the vort showing up this weekend is the November 18th storm or is the vort the GFS was showing later next week? I think this weekend makes more sense-on November 18th I picked up close to a 1/4 inch of rain which makes it the second largest qpf producer since mid October. It was the last “bang” of cycle 1 and the surface low tracked between here and Emporia. It will be interesting to see how it plays out if it does at all. It is the last real chance for cycle 2 to really produce any kind of qpf in my very humble opinion.

    If the above is true, then it appears at this moment the November 18th storm is not going to produce any measurable snow in cycle 2, so I will wind up with 1.5 inches for this cycle. That is about 3-4 inches below what I thought I would get from this cycle and leaves me needing cycle 3 and early cycle 4 to produce 10-12 inches of snow for me to hit my snow prediction range of 13-15 inches. Based on late cycle 1 and cycle 2 which had our friend the ridge go all Trey Young and dominate the entire show, the chances of that happening look bleak indeed. However, I will still respectfully argue that there are times in this LRC where that can actually happen so I will stick with it and ride this pony all the way to April 2nd.

    One last thought: as someone who enjoys winter (well all the seasons actually) and would rather run when it is 5 below compared to 98 I have very much enjoyed the past 10-12 days. It has at least looked like winter where last year at this time we had 2 days of cold followed by 12 days of warm and still dry. If you like to ice skate, this has been the best set up since 2013-2014 and this is even better as the ice is so clear and clean. So yea…I will as of now, take this LRC over the past 2…I have had some beautiful runs this past week watching the sun rise over the snow covered (light though it may be) hills and frozen lakes. Of course, my expectations are extremely low at the moment LOL

    Have a great day everyone

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

    • Bill in Lawrence January 2, 2018 at 1:40 pm - Reply

      Just though of something that I think I need to clarify…

      I enjoy winter weather because it is much more rare here than thunderstorms or temps in the 90’s. Even growing up in the 70’s and 80’s and reading diaries as far back as the 1850’s winter weather did not settle in and stick from November-March; every winter month has warm and dry stretches. I remember and have pictures of me fishing in shorts with my grandpa in January in the early 70’s-I have never had to wear a heavy coat in July. So the overall rarity of winter weather here s what make sit so interesting to me.

      That said, I have that luxury. Any given show storm or cold spell I have to be outside for maybe 3-4 hours a day doing some stuff to the drive or to the house or property-the rest I get to choose. I fully realize for those who have to work in it or those who have to drive or those who are not as blessed as me and do not have adequate shelter winter is absolutely horrendous and the warmer the winter the better.

      So while I talk on here quite a bit about how much I like snow and admittedly will still excited for a snow storm, I do realize it is because I have the luxury to like it. For the past several years I have been doing quite a bit work at the local shelter (and have used the LRC to help them prepare by the way) and I am beginning to switch my thoughts somewhat or at least tone them down.

    • Gary January 2, 2018 at 3:57 pm - Reply

      I am dreaming of a white cycle 3 of this years LRC! So far, it has been anything but dreamy. But, patience can be rewarded. The new Euro does fit the pattern. In cycle 1 it produced. In cycle 2 it produced and went just south and was small. If cycle 3 is like cycle 1, then our patience may have paid off.

      Then the GFS comes in and takes it away.

      Gary

  13. Terry January 2, 2018 at 1:20 pm - Reply

    Gary I was wondering when would Cycle 3 begin ? are they still all over the place still right ? When Cycle 3 starts can or would the models Catch on to cycle 3 ? What’s your Gut feeling about this ? I know it’s why still to early to to give up on Winter because it only less than two weeks Into it. What you think about your 21.5 snow ?

  14. Farmgirl January 2, 2018 at 1:25 pm - Reply

    Gary, I guess “Boring” is relative to what one experiences day to day working outside. These past 2 weeks have been anything but boring for livestock producers.

    It’s extremely hard work to feed and keep water for animals. May not seem important to some, but I’ve lost several hens and frost bite on some combs. This cold weather has actually been extraordinary in its duration.

    I am ready for moderation.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE January 2, 2018 at 4:43 pm - Reply

      You ever consider a little heating pad for your hens? Not something you’d want to do permanently but might save a couple chickens in these really bad conditions.

  15. MMike January 2, 2018 at 1:33 pm - Reply

    DROUGHT 2018!

    We were suppose to have one the last 3 years….this must be the year.

    Last year this time we were on our way to a DO/D1 condition that was realized by late March for KS and MO. By late April, after a dry winter, we had wiped out all those headlines for both states. We continued that for several months, matter of fact most of KS and MO were not in any kind of headline for most of the growing season, yes, even including you Kurt up in St. Joe. Why, well, it’s not the total amount you get, it’s the timing and the temperatures that follow. Had just enough well timed moisture and the cooler then normal summer helped out. St. Joe came in at 10 inches below normal for the year, but, was not in a drought headline 80 percent of the growing season. Once again most of MO and KS were not in a drought headline 80 percent of the growing season. And even when they did go into a headline, it was just abnormally dry…nothing major. Dry year, yes, but not a drought year. Obviously, areas in and around KC had their 3rd straight year of 50+ inches of rain.

    So, 45-55 inches of rain around KC last year following a very similar winter that we are now experiencing….but most are certain(not all) that a drought is for sure.

    Let’s clarify a drought…it’s not a dry period, a drought is something that kills off trees and plants and empties out lakes and ponds. A drought is real when your supplement water can’t keep up. During a dry period with moderate temps, you can maintain by watering yourself. The whole point of watering it get you to the next rain. You have to water every year…that is fact. There are always dry stretches.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE January 2, 2018 at 4:51 pm - Reply

      True MMIKE!
      during 2012 I couldn’t water my garden enough, ever. I would water and the cracks would literally swallow up 5 gallon bucket after 5 gallon bucket. I kept some plants alive for awhile but I gave up going into July once it was clear it wasn’t just a dry hot stretch but it was indeed a drought with legs. All the corn was dead by early July and somehow the beans did make a small 20 bushel crop Because we got a random 3.5″ rain in mid-July that really boosted them for awhile ( Genetically modified for sure or would have made nothing).

  16. stl78 January 2, 2018 at 1:40 pm - Reply

    I have 2 inch icicles on my beard and mustache today….sigh😭

  17. Urbanity January 2, 2018 at 1:43 pm - Reply

    I did just notice JB posted a some similar analog years to this one and one of those was 1933 in addition to (1950,1995,2005,2010). Well, there you go, drought years west of the Mississippi. We know about the dirty 30’s, and 50’s, here are some excerpts from 1995 & 2010 below from the NWS.

    1995 – “The drought in the Southwest and the southern Plains has been one manifestation of an extraordinarily persistent upper-level circulation pattern that has extended across the western North Pacific Ocean, North America, and the North Atlantic Ocean (Figure 8). This planetary-scale pattern featured amplified ridges over the southwestern United States and the high latitudes of both the North Atlantic and North Pacific Oceans, and amplified troughs over the eastern United States and the central latitudes of the North Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans.” and “temperatures across most of the aforementioned areas averaged 2F to 6F above normal throughout the period, aggravating the dryness”.

    2010 – “The Southern Plains drought began with unusually dry and hot conditions that fell into place in October 2010, then persisted as wet season after wet season came up dry, due to factors like La Nina”

    Like I said before, this year precip situation is a lot worse than last year, and looks like it’s here to stay. Can you imagine averaging 6 degrees above average this summer, we better get a tax deduction for electrical bills if that happens.

    “It’s gonna be cold, then it’s gonna be hot, it’s gonna be dry, and it’s gonna last you the rest of your kids middle school years”.

    • Troy Newman January 2, 2018 at 2:02 pm - Reply

      That is interesting. I looked up those years you listed and all of them are very dry through about the middle of May and then it turns wetter at least at my location. In fact all of the years were at least 5″ below normal (I use the water year starting Oct 1 because it correlates well with the LRC) by May 15 but only 1 actually ended up below normal for the period Oct -Sept. Even in 1995 we had 1 inch more than average from May 15 to Sept 30. I do remember the heat of 1995 as I was in college and worked at the Irrigation District in the summer. It was truly brutal there for a week or so.

  18. MMike January 2, 2018 at 1:47 pm - Reply

    Winter so far, well, yes, a lame duck. However, we still have plenty of time to turn our frown upside down. If it doesn’t change, yes, that would be something, 3 straight years in a row of boring. Many didn’t think we could turn the corner coming out of last winter, well, we did, so that is why you must stay positive that something will change. Hopefully it changes before the cold of winter is gone so we can see some more snow. Remember, the weather always changes, it has too, otherwise you would never dry out if you were in a wet pattern or get wet when you are in a dry pattern….when is the big question.

    A lot was discussed back in mid to late Nov. and early in Dec. that this is shaping up to be a dry and warm winter again. The dry is here, but the warm is not. This might be one of the coldest starts to actual winter in some time. (2 weeks below freezing, that’s pretty impressive with out a decent snow pack) I think the entire state of MO was below zero yesterday morning. That’s an impressive arctic high. I was told a lot on here that you can’t go below zero without snow on the ground…Officially we hit -11 with more ground then snow showing.

    Storm this weekend? Maybe, let’s hope so. We just need the storm to slow and the phasing to be well timed and we could see a good rain over to snow event.
    We have a player on the field.

    CHIEFS! 4-0 run…

    You are in Chiefs, now, let’s go on a run!

    • ClassyCat January 2, 2018 at 7:34 pm - Reply

      MMike speaks the truth.

  19. numb3rsguy January 2, 2018 at 2:39 pm - Reply

    Finally getting around to looking into the cold weather we’ve had compared to historical values. Overall, yes, it is below average and it is cold, but our cold weather isn’t historic, not even top 10 in any category I’ve found.

    Average temp on 1/1/18 was -1 degF, which is our 76th coldest day in KC since 1888.
    December 2017 was 32.1 degrees on average, or 53rd coldest. Coldest overall was in December 1983 at 13.2 degF.
    December 2018 had 2 days below 0 (tied for 16th), the most was 12 in 1983.
    Most consecutive days with a low below 0 degF is 9 in 1983 (so far we are at 3, and the streak is likely over tomorrow)
    Most consecutive days with a high below 32 degF is 27 days in 1978. So far this streak we are at 10, which ties for the 32nd longest streak. If we don’t get above 32 until Saturday as forecast, we will have a streak of 14 days, which would tie us for 16th place.
    Even if you take the coldest 10 day stretches in KC History by average temperature, the last 10 days aren’t in the top 100. Same with the last 5 days. So really this isn’t a historic cold outbreak in KC alone.
    Up through 1/1/18, we have had 11 days with highs below freezing, which is the 40th highest number of days up to that date. Highest is 24 in 2001.
    We hit -11 on 1/1/18, and the last time we were that cold was the 2014/15 season where we hit -11, and we hit -12 in the 2010/11 season. So this isn’t even the coldest weather in more than 10 years.
    No snow facts at this point because obviously we aren’t seeing record high amounts of that either.

    Summary: It’s been cold, but not that cold compared to history in KC. There are some places nation wide where the cold is record breaking, but not here. Anything else you want to know? Ask away!

    -numb3rsguy

    • Rockdoc January 2, 2018 at 3:16 pm - Reply

      Love what you post. You are surely our top stats man. Do you run everything through Access to cull the data points and number crunch?

      • numb3rsguy January 2, 2018 at 7:49 pm - Reply

        Rockdoc,

        I have my own spreadsheets that contain the data. I programmed macros into them that give me some of the stats. The more difficult ones I either do by hand, or use a website that also has some data.

    • Urbanity January 2, 2018 at 3:38 pm - Reply

      Our cold temps have been without snow pack, some of these years probably had serious snow pack to keep temps down. For long term extreme cold you pretty much have to have ice on the ground. It’s a serious cold spell we are having, in the past 20 years it has to rank in the top 3 so it definitely feels like a record cold event.

      Here is an unbelieveable statistic, LAST YEAR in Colby, KS, December 17 &18, the lows were -20, and -22 degF. Some locations those mornings came in at -26 degF. By Dec 20th it was 50 degrees, a very strange anomoly.

      • numb3rsguy January 2, 2018 at 7:55 pm - Reply

        Urbanity,

        I agree snowpack has a huge effect in the temps. I didn’t check to see what the coldest outbreaks are without snow in the ground. I imagine this outbreak would certainly rank higher than what I found above. Either way, it’s flipping cold. Stay warm everyone!

    • Dan M. January 2, 2018 at 4:36 pm - Reply

      numb3rsguy – Your posts are some of the most informative on here. It puts in perspective that what we are experiencing is actually normal. Thanks.

  20. Rockdoc January 2, 2018 at 3:11 pm - Reply

    Wow, Gary must be busy in meetings and getting ready for the Now KC show. I’ve been in mod since noon 🙁

    Anyways, I posted links to a new weather site that has the EURO, GFS, and some other models. I posted projected rainfall and snow going through next Tuesday morning.

    Maybe those links are what causes my comments to go into mod. Sounds like they still have some work to do.

    • Mr. Pete January 2, 2018 at 6:47 pm - Reply

      Why are you in mod all the time?

  21. Mike January 2, 2018 at 3:27 pm - Reply

    EURO shows 6-11″ of snow on 1-12. I know…I know. It is 10 days out. Just sharing information.

    Mike

    • Urbanity January 2, 2018 at 3:41 pm - Reply

      It’s just a fantasy, can’t let this fantasy lie.
      But, in the words of John Lithgow, “oh please oh please oh please, that would be wonderful, good Lord please let that happen (with a little spit of course)”.

    • f00dl3 January 2, 2018 at 3:49 pm - Reply

      I feel sorry for the people who pay for the euro. I would want my money back if it’s wrong 10 days out. 😀

      • Mike January 2, 2018 at 3:52 pm - Reply

        When is the exact start of cycle 3 fOOdl3 and Urbanity? Wouldn’t a storm align correctly around 1-12?

        • Terry January 2, 2018 at 5:20 pm - Reply

          Mike Gary said in his Blog on December 29th that Cycle 3 could as early as around 5th to 7th . But more around January 9th to 11th . But Gary did say in todays blog will be moving into cycle 3
          but during this next 10 days or so.

          • Tdogg January 2, 2018 at 6:04 pm - Reply

            So we don’t get snow in cycle 3. Thanks for the update.

      • Rockdoc January 2, 2018 at 5:15 pm - Reply

        Head up to the links I posted earlier. No charge yet to use!

  22. KS Jones January 2, 2018 at 5:21 pm - Reply

    https://www.livescience.com/21677-antarctica-facts.html
    The coldest, windiest and driest continent, Antarctica contains 90 percent of all of the ice on Earth . . . The inner regions of the continent receive an average of 2 inches (50 millimeters) of precipitation — primarily in the form of snow — each year. More rain falls in the Sahara desert.

  23. Terry January 2, 2018 at 8:19 pm - Reply

    Maybe we get a good Snow event on my birthday it’s the 11th that in Cycle 3 . I see it coming.

  24. Brad January 2, 2018 at 8:40 pm - Reply

    Looks like that band of snow that gary showed earlier tonight is beginning to cross the missouri/iowa border even getting into northeast kansas. Should it stay together that is

  25. Freezemiser January 2, 2018 at 9:38 pm - Reply

    😭 It’s going to snow????

    Freeze

  26. Bill in Lawrence January 3, 2018 at 6:41 am - Reply

    Gary:

    Happy Wednesday to you sir.

    If the vort this weekend is indeed the November 18th storm which I think that it is, then I would argue that the 0Z last night had a much better handle on it than the 06Z. The 0Z track of the surface feature looks very similar to what we saw on November 18th.

    It will be interesting to see what the GFS does with this over the next 3-4 runs but based on the LRC, I would expect us to get at least .25 of qpf from this weekend with a decent percentage of a chance of closer to .50.

    Of course, this is all from a history teacher; a history teacher who thought we were going to get another 1-2 inches during the arctic outbreak so take it all with a huge grain of salt LOL

    Have a great Wednesday everyone

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

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