Frigid End to 2017, Frigid Start to 2018

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Happy New Year bloggers!

My goodness if it is going to be this cold, then it might as well snow. Unfortunately, this is not the case as we are staying in this ridiculously dry weather pattern. Dodge City, KS has received 0.01” since the new LRC started.  It will stay dry for at least another 5-7 days. So, let’s go through this numbing New Years forecast and look back at stats from 2017.

We are in a Wind Chill Warning tonight and Monday as wind chill values are expected to drop to between -30° and -20°. The wind chill will drop to -40° along and north of I-80. The blue warnings in Montana, are for Avalanches!

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Here are impacts to keep in mind if you are planning to be out and about. Your exposed skin will freeze in 20 minutes in a -20° wind chill and in 10 minutes when the wind chill drops to -35°.  The bottom line is dress in layers and move quickly if you are outside.

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How do you know if you are experiencing hypothermia? Here are some symptoms to watch out for if you are exposed to the cold too long.

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So, if you are headed to a New Years eve party make sure you are bundled up, get inside quickly, DON’T DRINK AND DRIVE, and of course, have fun!

Here is the forecast for tonight and Monday.

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Now, here is the forecast for around the area and region.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: We will see a decent amount of sun, but so what! The temperatures will stay between 5° and 10° with wind chill values around -15°

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HAPPY 2018!: It will be -5° in KC and near -20° for Omaha and Des Moines on the thermometer. The wind chill values will be as low as -30° in KC and -40° along I-80. At least you will not have to deal with icy or snowy roads.

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NEW YEARS DAY MORNING: Here is the latest computer projection of lows around the area. We are going -10° in KC as we believe these temperatures are about three to five degrees too warm. Now, the coldest low recorded on January 1st for KC is -13° in 1974. We are going to make a run at this temperature. Wind chill values will be as low as -30° as it won’t take much wind to create those values when it is this cold.

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Here are the coldest lows recorded for KC on January 1st. If we do not make the first coldest, then second place is quite likely.

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NEW YEARS DAY AFTERNOON: The high here in KC will struggle to 5° despite abundant sunshine. Northern Missouri will likely stay below zero all day. Wind chill values will be around -15°.

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This current Arctic blast will exit Tuesday as a new one arrives later Wednesday and Thursday. This next blast is directed slightly to the east, so we will not get quite as cold, but lows below zero are likely Thursday and/or Friday. This Arctic air will arrive once again be accompanied by little to no chance of snow.

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Before we turn to 2018, let’s look at some stats from 2017 here in KC.

The hottest temperature was recorded on July 21st and 22nd as we climbed to 98°. It would have easily been 100°, if the dew point were not 80°-83°! This lead to a major rain event south of the river on the night of the 22nd. St. Louis was 108° on the 22nd of July as their dew points were in the 50s and they were in a drought.

The coldest temperature was -5° just last week. Now, if we fall to below -5° before midnight, then the coldest temperature of 2017 will be set in it’s last few minutes.

We finished with 46.02″ of rain, or 7.20″ above average. You can see the surplus was caused by the wet summer as we were 8.05″ above average for June through August, which means the rest of 2017 had average precipitation.

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Have a happy and safe New Year!

Stay warm, and again, please don’t drink and drive.

Jeff Penner

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KurtTerryTdoggHeat MiserMr. Pete Recent comment authors
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Terry
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Terry

All over the place the models.

Kurt
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Kurt

The GFS has been fairly consistent with .1 to .5 QPF on most runs through middle of January, I see the 12Z shows some snow south and east of most of Kansas City. This model has shown up to 2 inches of snow through mid January, wouldn’t say that’s very substantial. Would like to see something more widespread with higher QPF to get excited about. Terry are you talking about the different models that show discrepancies? I don’t think any model is showing lots of hope for heavy snow through mid January at this point, kind of consistent with how… Read more »

Tdogg
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Tdogg

Heat, you better get your homework done before school starts back up

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Next ten days look extremely dry.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Weather models cant predict storms 10 days out, remember?

Kurt
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Kurt

And if we forget that you are here to remind all bloggers every day of that Heat. Did you every tell us your snowfall forecast for the season Heat? I am curious how you see this winter until March 20th, 2018? Just to get some idea what you personally think will happen since we can’t rely on the models.

Happy New Year!

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

2017 summary for St Joseph, Missouri

Total Precipitation 26.0 inches
Annual Averahr 36.60 inches
73 percent of normal

December precipitation .14 inches
December average 1.52 inches
9 percent of normal

We are currently gaining 1 minute of sunlight day though

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Sorry average annual for St Joseph is 35.6 inches

Either way we had a dry year in a localized area

Elaine Watson
Guest
Elaine Watson

See a chance of something Sunday…a chance for a flurry or something measurable?

stl78
Guest
stl78

Happy new yr everyone. Here r the stats i have for kc in dec. Temp was +1.4/ precip 0.05/snowfall 1.3/normal precip is 1.75 so u received 3% of usual precip…cheers

Rockdoc
Member
Rockdoc

Happy New Year Everyone! We have an extra treat in store today when the Supermoon makes its only appearance of 2018 today. For those interested in seeing it up close there is a live telescope showing of the moon rising over Rome, Italy. You can see it here. https://www.virtualtelescope.eu/webtv/n-1-jan-2018/ Later on today you can view it as it rises over the US from telescopes here. You just need to create a free account. https://www.slooh.com Looking ahead, the Euro shows light snow for our area next Sunday. More of a dusting than any real accumulation. I have not checked the GFS… Read more »

KS Jones
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KS Jones

Yesterday’s low was -4° (midway between Marysville & Manhattan). It warmed up to 3° for a high, and remained there from 10 AM to 4 PM.
Our low temperature this morning was -13° (from 5:15 to 8:15 AM), and it is currently -2°.

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Just me again LOL I found it intreresting that Yellowknife is still 19 below today…usually when we have this kind of cold here YK has really moderated to the teens or higher single digits…maybe even the lower 20’s. The fact that thye are still at -19 today shows that we still do have a decent cold air source to work with for cycle 3 and that the arctic air is just reloading not necessarily leaving this side of the pole. Again…something different from last yerar’s LRC. May be off base here, but I expected to see YK much warmer today… Read more »

Bill in Lawrence
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Bill in Lawrence

Gary and Jeff: Happy New Year!!! Bottomed out around 9 below this morning…it is cold!!! 🙂 Imagine if we had any kind of snow pack…but minus 9 is pretty impressive for the lack of one. We will slowly start to rise from here…I would imagine this will be the coldest reading of the 2017-2018 winter unless we some how have a snow pack in February for this part of cyle 3. One thing I forgot in my War and Peace post form yesterday was to eat my crow for saying we would have 1-2 inches by January 3rd. Well…that sure… Read more »

stl78
Guest
stl78

Hope not michael. My basment bathroom pipes froze. I shut the water off to the bathroom and put a space heater in there. Fyi, if u do get frozen be very careful in thawing them. Do not use excessive heat. In 9 yrs with the fire dept we saw a ton of structure fires from inappropriate thawing methods.

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

Already been on three this morning at work. Couple yesterday. I wish this cheap A@#$ public housing apartments were built like you guys do up in Minnesota! Stay warm!
Michael

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

-15 up here in Maryville! Frozen pipes here I come!
Michael

stl78
Guest
stl78

Welcome to the frozen tundra kc!

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Lost power last night in Shawnee at 10pm, until 2:30 am. Went from 76F to 60F in short order. Luckily the kids slept through it, was thinking about getting a hotel. We survived, broke out the little buddy hunting heater

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

-6.8 here in Lenexa right now.

Gary – keep your station under control! They are posting links not paying any heed to the LRC!
https://www.kshb.com/news/national/what-s-ahead-for-2018-after-2017-s-record-breaking-weather

Elaine Watson
Guest
Elaine Watson

-9.4 on my Vantage Vue weather station. I am east of McLouth. Burrr…..dogs are inside, cats, etc….heating bill will be !!!!!!!!!!!

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

-4 here in Prairie Village in this last hour of 2017.

Brian
Guest
Brian

If you put a forecast out well before it happens it can be disproved. It’s safer to put out several different forecasts, then see if you can find a map that looks similar to show that you knew it all along. My prediction for the Chiefs-Titans is that it’s very complex. The Chiefs could win by 24 plus, but it could be closer. It could be a Chiefs win by less than 7. Also the Titans could show up and play a good game and the Chiefs could lose. Again it’s very complex. Stay tuned over the next week while… Read more »

Tdogg
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Tdogg

Whoa!!!!

ClassyCat
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ClassyCat

Obviously, you don’t follow this blog often. If you do, I assume you’re just trying to get a rise out of some. That, or you truly are uninformed. Gary routinely offers up when he’s wrong…..example see recent blog on discussion of drought and his forecast miss of a drought locally this past spring/summer (sorry Kurt, Gary was correct about the drought in St Joe). He admits when he gets things wrong. If you follow routinely, you’ll see that. If you don’t follow routinely, it’s unfair to make statements like that. Opinions are fine, but this is factual and not opinion… Read more »

L.B
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L.B

It seems like Bill in Lawrence has a better grasp then Gary. He at least gives us what he think’s according to the LRC

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Jason: We are neighbors!!! I am about 4 miles due east of Lone Star and just south of the yellow roofed John Deer barn on 458. I have always loved Lone Star Lake. My ex’s family has a cabin on it and used to spend weeks out there with my 2 boys. Some of the best bass fishing in Kansas there!!! I still have quite a bit of the one inch snow left on the north facing hills around my house; been great walking in there the past few days!! It will be interesting to watch the rain develop this… Read more »

Jason
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Jason

I know that barn. I’m just North of 56 around the Worden area

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Gary and Jeff: Happy New Year’s Eve to you and to all the 20/20 Bloggers!!! We hit around 0 here this morning and the valley floor was around minus 1; had a beautiful run this morning as the sun was coming up. Sat on the lake dam and watched the sun rise over the frozen lake as the ice hemmed and hawed….it was spectacular!!!! It will be interesting to see just where the surface high actually tracks over the next 24 hours and how strong it will actually be. The 12Z NAM has it coming pretty close to right over… Read more »

Jason
Guest
Jason

We must be almost neighbors Bill. I too am about 10 or so miles SW of Lawrence. Just a bit SE of Lonestar lake

Rockdoc
Member
Rockdoc

Happy New Year’s Eve everyone. Boy is it cold out. Snookie wanted to step outside so I let him outas I watched from the door. He only stayed out about 5 minutes before he came running back to the door. He wanted to check out the bird feeders. Silly kitty 😹 We think we have it bad, but the folks up in Canada, the Dakotas, upper Minnesota/Wisconsin/Michigan have it a lot worse. Even Florida gets into the action on Thursday and Friday. It will only be in the low 60s down near Miami and the upper Keys. Wonder if this… Read more »

stl78
Guest
stl78

No

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Accuweather pro – is it a app?

stl78
Guest
stl78

I just googled it to find it. Also, my original euro link is workin again but its now set up for east coast

Mark
Guest
Mark

Is this AccuWeather pro a app on the Play store? I can’t find it? I’ve had AccuWeather premium for years.

Carl
Guest
Carl

So, according to most of the cooments I’ve read on here over the weeks, no one seems to think that we will even come close to 20″ of snow fall this winter thereby setting up another 2012-type drought. Isn’t it possible/plausible that the seal breaks this spring and we get the moisture then? I mean, I find it hard to believe that we can “know” that we are in for a super dry year or minimal snowfall at this point.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Well, the LRC is sorta 50/50. It was wet in cycle 1, then dry after 47-51 days when it should have produced. So people calling it early are not wrong to do so based off of how it has gone so far.

Farmgirl
Guest
Farmgirl

It is actually better to not have snow with these frigid temps for those of us that have livestock.

I for one am already miserable as well as some old livestock. Snow would just add misery.

Yes we need the moisture, but I’ll happy skip it right now with these artic temps.

Had a rough morning outside so not trying to be too grumpy.

stl78
Guest
stl78

Agreed weatherman, im loving it!

Weatherman
Guest
Weatherman

Happy Pat Mahomes day everyone.

To the user using accuweather Pro, it’s pretty legit. I use that for the euro and most of the experimental/ensamble models. Worth the money.

Spending the New Years inside. No reason to get out in pajama pants in single digit cold.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Plus it can snow in the spring around here.

Bobbie
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Bobbie

But we’re only 2 weeks into winter lmao! 😉

Terry
Guest
Terry

about a week good try

Kurt
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Kurt

I think you can go back to early December to start counting winter, if you do through March 31st we are 25% done.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

We are about 10 days into winter, winter starting on 12/21. Winter being about 12 weeks long, that’s approx. less than 1/6 thru winter.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

If you literally interpret winter by the calendar dates. Nothing is certain that we will see snow after March 1st, or maybe we have to hope for one big snow in cycle 4, not sure how cold cycle 4 will be. I’d rather see if cycle 3 is like cycle 2 and we only see a couple inches of snow or maybe more. I’m trying to convey a point yes we have winter cold but it’s a very dry pattern that may not or may persist. Once we get into a very dry pattern it’s hard to get out some… Read more »

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Nothing is for sure we will see snow after March 1st, nothing is for sure we will see snow Feb 1st, or any other date more than a week out. Exactly, it may or may not persist…time will tell.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Then why do you always bring up the week into “winter”?

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

And remember, if you were around the blog the last two years, you would know by around this time both years, people on this blog with very good knowledge about meteorology who share very good information from time to time, were calling it very early that we were in trouble in terms of how winter would produce and look what happened, KC had only around a few inches or so both years. So they were not wrong to call winter as they see it, a non producer, that early. And here they are again calling yet another winters dud. While… Read more »

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

All I know we’ve had a couple of one inchers already…better than the last few years this early, we’ve had a wet year over all, it’s very early in the winter, and certain chicken littles like to run around in circles screaming that the no snow sky is falling every time we have a dry patch. Lets wait and see instead of a week into winter deciding we are doomed to a snowless winter. I’m saying its way too early to declare that.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Anonymous,

One major difference between the past 2 years and this year, cycle 1 was very wet and very productive this year with over 4 inches of rain. The winter isn’t hopeless until after that 17 day stretch in the first cycle comes by. If it is dry, I will agree that we are S.O.L , but to call it a non-winter at this point, is pure guess work. It will definitely be interesting to see how this plays out

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Based on the 12z run of the GFS, nothing in significant through mid January. Although you can’t rely on models that far out. Still wonder if that’s a trend based in the last 75 days?

Terry
Guest
Terry

Remember all over the place the models.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Yes when the models overdo a storm with lots of snow that far out they are usually wrong. With what we’ve experienced that last 10 weeks it’s likely we’ll see few storms and not many opportunities for snow

Joe
Guest
Joe

Based on this quiet LRC, anyone still thinking we get more than 5 inches of snow this winter?

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Oh sure…we will have chances for snow….it’s still December, winter is barely a week old. Lots of time.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Joe,

Yes, cycle 3 should produce as we have a number of systems that gave us adequate moisture.

Supercell
Guest
Supercell

Urbanity – I do not know your situation but wish you the very best in a positive outcome. Ring in the New Year with a blessing for good health from your fellow weather friends

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

A few more weeks of this kind of winter and you’ll hear crickets chirping on Gary’s blog. This groundhog day winter is a real bummer, and look, out here in central KS we have had maybe one 8″+ snow (about .30 moisture equivalent) in the last decade, about the same time the wind farms went up…probably a coincidence…. Want to wish everyone a Happy New Year, for some of you who know my situation there’s not a lot of reason to celebrate so we’ll probably keep it home this year. Here’s to a cheer for a new medical breakthrough’s this… Read more »

Brad M
Guest
Brad M

-16 in Burnsville MN this morning, same as yesterday morning.

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Just imagine how nasty it would be if the chiefs playoff game was today and not next weekend. Sounds like you the cold air will retreat and we will be closer to historical averages by then.

MattinLeavenworth
Guest
MattinLeavenworth

Frostbite? You mean an ice tan.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Cold and dry. Maybe some bugs and weeds are getting zapped.

stl78
Guest
stl78

Current temp -9/wc-30 here in winona mn.

Brian
Guest
Brian

That’s cold for Winona – known as the Florida of Minnesota – it is usually spared the typical Minnesota winters.

stl78
Guest
stl78

Yes and no brian. It is warmer than say minn/st. Paul but the lakes, rivers and ponds are normally froze over by dec. It was a little later this yr(mid dec) but trucks are now out on the ice and shantys are abundant. We do receive some protection from the bluffs (about 700 ft elevation) and the climate on the ridge tops can vary greatly between there and the valleys. So while it is slightly warmer than Minneapolis it still has minnisotan winters

Brian
Guest
Brian

I don’t disagree that it’s cold – but it has its own micro climate down there by the river. My buddy lived there for several years and recently move up on the flat lands about an hour west. It’s more like a NW Iowa winter up on the plains without the protection of the bluffs.

BTW – one of the greatest drives is 43HWY thought the bluffs.

stl78
Guest
stl78

Agreed brian. Ivw been workin this area about 6 yrs and love it here. Its like a mountain town in the midwest

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones
stl78
Guest
stl78

Thats cool ksjones! The bluff by my house has a lookout point with a sign that says it sits 654 ft above winona. Its a beautiful view from there!

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

It dropped to -5° at Hiawatha and 1° at Olathe this morning.

http://mesonet.k-state.edu/client/png/ks.min.freeze.png

stl78
Guest
stl78

Last night i posted about a 14 day free trial for accuweatherpro. It has a ton of of cool features as well as access to the euro and many forecast models. It is 20 a month after the trial. I spent several hrs playing around on it last night and love it!

Rickmckc
Guest
Rickmckc

Do you think it is better than F5 Weather? I had AccuWeather a few years ago and thought it was too disorganized.

stl78
Guest
stl78

Hey rick,im not familar f5. Is it a pay site? Im guessing the accuweather and accueweatherpro are different. Not entirely sure. Sorry i am not of more help. Guess u wont b breaking the club’s out anytime soon huh?lol. Maybe when that jan thaw rolls around.

LSDoc
Guest
LSDoc

-5 without a snowpack? Wow!

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

I’m going hunting later this afternoon, will be my record crest hunt ever. Sorta neat challenge to see how long I can take this cold, im planning on 3 or 4 layers for the lower body, 7 layers for upper body and 3 face masks. I might be lucky to be able to physically carry all the cloths on my person. Something tells me the deer will either be moving around Alot to keep warm, or they will be snuggling up in a warm bed not moving at all.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Just don’t overheat. Sweating is the worst thing. Going from biking/running in -7F weather, moisture is what will get you. My body’s way of telling me is if I’m shivering when I’m starting I’m too cold and need more layers, but if I’m itchy I am over dressed. It’s best to be slightly cooled but not to the point where your shivering, because if your too warm you will get soaked and the wind will go right through the cold sweat onto your skin and amplify the effects. It’s always easier to take an extra layer with you and pop… Read more »

Lisa Lu
Guest
Lisa Lu

Last night driving home on K10E near K7 around 9:50pm I saw a huge flash of light in the sky off to the left – like lightning. Super noticeable. I wonder if anyone else saw this? Lenexa area. With all the dry winter air, static electricity sparks in homes increase (use a humidifier!) and wonder what the heck I saw. Can that kind of thing happen in the atmosphere? Checked outage maps when I got home to see if it was a transformer that blew – no indication of outages, and yet what I saw covered a huge portion of… Read more »

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

You probably saw a meteor. I’ve caught a couple very bright ones flashing across sky driving down to farm in the dark, funny you rarely ever hear about them later unless they were particularly vivid and happened to occur where Alot of people witnessed

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

I didn’t see a flash because we had the curtains closed to insulate the windows, but I did hear a loud rumble of thunder at about that time, so I looked at the radar and saw a small cluster of something had moved through; quickly moving east toward Topeka.

Lisa Lu
Guest
Lisa Lu

KS Jones – Thanks so much for the reply! Since there had been no talk about storms, I didn’t think it would be lightning and yet it was!

Fred Nolan
Guest
Fred Nolan

Yada, yada, yada.
Happy New Year all, be safe.