The Cold And Dry Weather Continues

Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on pinterest

Good Morning Bloggers,

2Animals may be seeking the warmth of your car, so be careful when you start and warm them up.  This is a picture from around 4 years ago.  Sunny The Weather Dog didn’t seek the warmth of the car, but she only spent a few minutes outside this morning. Temperatures have dropped into the single digits in Kansas City, but the coldest air is still 24 to 48 hours away.

DSCN4757 (1)Sunny learned how to pose two years ago when she was just a puppy. When you look at her posing this morning in the very cold 7 degree temperatures, you can notice, or really not notice one thing. There were only a few “fract0 stratus” clouds out there in this very dry atmosphere.  As high pressure builds overhead conditions will get even colder and drier.  The dry weather is more wide spread than just around eastern Kansas into western Missouri.

Drought conditions are creeping over many areas of the United States as 2017 comes to a close. The big question will be whether or not it will begin raining and snowing enough to prevent the development of a serious to major drought?  Last year we thought a drought may develop and as we moved into the early spring months the storm systems finally began producing heavier rains in a few spots and the major drought did not materialize.  I was concerned last year, and those concerns proved wrong. I have higher concerns for 2018 for the development of a major drought and I believe one is developing already.

Screen Shot 2017-12-30 at 8.21.21 AM

We will look at more of the specifics in the coming days and weeks. For now, bundle up. The year is ending with a major Arctic Blast!

Thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the blog at Weather2020 to join  in the conversation.

Gary

Share this post with your friends

Share on facebook
Share on google
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin

53
Leave a Reply

avatar
32 Comment threads
21 Thread replies
0 Followers
 
Most reacted comment
Hottest comment thread
23 Comment authors
Mr. PeteEmawBSMike(Dallas Cowboys)JoeKstl78 Recent comment authors
  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

I’m measuring 4 above at the moment…

Emaw
Guest
Emaw

BS, did you by chance read it?

BSMike(Dallas Cowboys)
Guest
BSMike(Dallas Cowboys)

Emaw I watched the video you posted. Doesn’t look frozen to me.

stl78
Guest
stl78

For those interested, accuweatherpro has a 14 day trial for their services. It is about 20/month after free trial. Its my first go around with it and i must say, i really really like it!! The Euro is included as well as a ton of great info for like minded wx nerds such as myself! Btw…current temp-10 / wc–28 for my local in se mn

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Doesn’t appear to be heading this way, it’s 0 or below up where the snow is in northeast Nebraska and their barametric pressure is higher than ours is. Not sure why the jet stream (that must be where the disturbance is tracking) can’t buckle more with the amount on cold air but that track has been stubborn since about Wednesday over that part of Nebraska into Iowa

BSMike(Dallas Cowboys)
Guest
BSMike(Dallas Cowboys)

Is any of that snow going to make it here that’s up in Nebraska?

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Darn typo Bobbie not Bonnie an it kept wanting to autocorrect

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

I saw that too Bonnie, but you know we can’t rely on models past 19 days, even though 90 percent of the region (ok maybe I’ve over estimated the percentage) had seen more than 1/10 of an inch the last 15 days (the QPF) from the snow, drizzle and spotty rain.

I know models waiver, but trends haven’t been good since mid October and I’d like to see something actually produce for my very dry area and all areas needing precip

Bobbie
Guest
Bobbie

Wow, do you guys see that big storm showing up in the new data?

I didn’t either…welcome to LRC Winter 2017

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Yard is still snow covered here in Prairie Village

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

I just measured the undisturbed snow at three places in our driveway and found we have 7/8″ remaining from our initial 2 1/8″.
The sun has been shining all afternoon (filtered but with strong shadows), and yet the air temperature has dropped 2° from a high of 9° to 7° in the past hour.

Rockdoc
Member
Rockdoc

So glad it warmed up yesterday that the windshield wiper fluid line thawed out. Flushed out line and replaced with fluid rated to -25. Hopefully this won’t freeze.

Well, looking ahead it looks like we have some possible rain heading our way. Here is the surface map for Monday the 8th. There’s also wrap around snow on the backend.

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2017123012&fh=222&r=us_c&dpdt=

It is so dry right now that I’m getting shocked by my cats 😹 Time to get a humidifier. Have a great Saturday.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

http://www.nola.com/weather/index.ssf/2017/12/eastern_us_to_endure_most_numb.html

December 29, 2017

So far this year, warm weather records have outpaced cold by a factor of 3 in the United States.

Nicholas
Guest
Nicholas

as for here still officially 8F if we don’t hit 10F today ( this afternoon) then there is a chance we could have 3 afternoons in a row below 10F here and its been a LONG time since that has happened here I believe.

sedsinkc
Guest
sedsinkc

Last time KC officially had 3 or more consecutive days with highs less than 10 degrees was Jan. 10-12, 1997 with 7. The highs were 7, 8, and 8, respectively. The longest stretch of consecutive days with highs less than 10 degrees occurred in December 1983 with 8 consecutive days.

sedsinkc
Guest
sedsinkc

Last time was Jan 10-12, 1997 with 3. Not 7.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Hard to believe it’s been that long, also hard to believe all this cold and so little snow. Storm track didn’t even budge for most of the clippers and kept it to out north

MikeL
Guest
MikeL

Fun fact: Topeka has had more snow in March than December the past eight years.

2010-2017
December total snowfall: 17.8″
March total snowfall: 23.6″

Emaw
Guest
Emaw

Some overnight cloud cover the next couple nights would be outstanding as well.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Also the forecast high Monday is up to 8, think the models were forecasting colder if there was snow cover or the air is modifying more?

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Temps today are a bit warmer than forecast too – already 15 here in Lenexa – overshot the high by +5 F.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Let’s look at monthly snowfall totals from CF6 MCI data since 1900, shall we? * This data may not be completely accurate as data prior to 1960 may not have imported properly, but the trend should be similar: October: 8.5″ November: 50.9″ December: 217.6″ January: 265.1″ February: 288.7″ March: 137.1″ April: 30.8″ Total: 999.7″ So in other words, the 3 snowiest months of Winter are DECEMBER, January, and February. 78% – the majority – of our snowfall happens in those 3 months. 28% – or about 1/3rd – of our snowfall historically happens “when Winter hasn’t even started yet.” So… Read more »

MikeL
Guest
MikeL

Looking at your chart, 2010-2011 was an exception with 3.6 OND and 38.9 for the season. 2012-2013 doesn’t fit well either with 4.1/34.2. Our winters do seem to be back loaded in recent years though.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

True enough. Looked past those.

Begs to question the LRC’s seasonal differences.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Oops I meant first 20-25 days of cycle 3

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Earth shattering I agree with f00dl3 and Nicholas, I would say a typical snow window here is Dec 10th to March 10th, and can span from late October to May 1st (however that’s rare). So if we get to January 10th without additional snow we’re at 1 to 3 inches metro and region wide, yes some have had more So if cycle 3 doesn’t produce and would be ending around March 1st how likely are we to get 20 inches of snow? Wouldn’t the models start performing better further into the season? If we warm up the first 29 days… Read more »

Tim
Guest
Tim

Just my two cents… feb/March is when we have had the past large snows. Seems to me this is natural as it’s the beginning of transition into spring pattern. Just as easy as there were tornado outbreak in March.. So can blizzards. KCs largest all time largest 24 hour snow occurred in the back half of March.

Terry
Guest
Terry

Very true

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

I would agree with Tim, but is that likely on this pattern? Are there any “wet” functional systems that can drop 12-20 inches of snow in the area?

The lrc repeats, maybe cycle 3 is more active like cycle 1, but that was mainly the first 3 weeks and will it warm up and be rain or freezing rain and not snow?

We have to see how the jet stream, moisture and cold interact. Right now nothing in the near term indicates a shift from the dry pattern

Nicholas
Guest
Nicholas

Well I do think there is a chance that cycle three will produce a bit more ( in almost every winter even the “bad” ones, there is usually a cycle that produces some, and then in the bad winters there is the other that will “skunk” you) this year the even number cycle seems to be the one that will “completely skunk” us or close to it with the exception of the cold anyway, and that has happened to be the first cycle of the winter so hopefully the mid to later winter will be at least a bit better.… Read more »

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

We have two full winter months ahead, Jan and Feb, and possibilities in March. Lets all just get a grip and stop the melodrama of the weather sky is falling when we are still in December. It’s silly.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

I agree with you winter isn’t done, it’s essentially 1/3 done, if the trend of the first 1/3 continues and we get a generous amount on snow in somewhat proportion to the first 1/3 we get between 4 and 8 inches more. However if it ramps up maybe we get 10-12 inches more. I think that f00dl3 was offering some perspective based on past winters. I also don’t see Gary or the weather team changing their prediction, but cycle 2 didn’t yield the results like cycle 1 and some of us are on the conservative side, or as some accuse… Read more »

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Historically speaking, the majority of our snow comes from January and February

Rred95
Guest
Rred95

I would like to know also if / when you revise snow prediction. I would want you too if you honestly don’t think it will be 21.
It seems like in past you put out a revised winter forecast in December did you this year?

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Dude, we are barely a week into winter.

Tdogg
Guest
Tdogg

And the writing is on the wall. We’re already counting on cycle 3 now dude, what does that tell you? Think about it….

Terry
Guest
Terry

Hes talked about there being chances in cycle 3 and hes also talked before about how dry it’s been to . That does not mean Cycle 3 will be dry either. And were only a week into winter. I don’t think garys too concerned about his 21.5″ of snow yet. If he was he would have said something about it. Soon let cycle 3 begin. I know some take certain words that they hear and run with that like the word dry. That does not mean cycle 3 gonna be dry Either! That cycle 3 do its thing. An flex… Read more »

Terry
Guest
Terry

Tdogg Doesn’t mean cycle 3 gonna be dry. I really think we’re gonna get at least one or two good snow this winter.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Utter nonsense….we can’t forecast if a storm system is going to hit us a few days out…and you think you can forecast the whole winter. LoL!!!! More weather blog drama….the sky is falling, the sky is falling.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I’m tired of hearing that “We are barely a week into Winter” excuse. No offense but if the LRC is such a useful tool, and we are already almost to cycle 3 after Jan 5, I think we would have seen snow now if we have already pretty much set in stone the snowiest part of cycle 2. Sorry – it’s pretty bleak as I see it. If the snowiest part of the pattern produces less snow than I had Dandruff in high school.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

LoL…I bet I’m more tired of hearing “the whole winter is done!” a week into the winter. Utter nonsense.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Yawn

Lary Gezak
Guest
Lary Gezak

We will be much more moisture-packed during the Spring and Summer, and the storms and fronts that come through will produce. I can’t even count how many cold fronts that have come through this winter with nothing but dry air and wind. That won’t be the case over the Spring. Like Three7s has been saying, we’re on the eastern part of the ridge.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I would say thr -10F is suspect as alot of snow has melted.

numb3rsguy
Guest
numb3rsguy

The snow melts when in direct sun, and the super dry air can cause the snow to sublimate. It’s more difficult to tell with a foot of snow on the ground, but since we only had an inch, the sun can penetrate through and warm the ground during the day to melt it.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Oh and Happy National Bacon Day. I’m fixing bacon and eggs from the girls for brunch 👍

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Happy and wetter New Years! And yes go Oklahoma, get a somewhat local team into the BCS (smiley face)

Michael Garner
Guest
Michael Garner

Gary, being below average for precipitation is what what you expected for this winter, do you still think your prediction of 21 inches of snow is possible? If so it would be nice to have some of that as the nice snowman kind of snow (wet) to help with the precipitation.

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

Gary,
What is record low in January is Kc? Just curious I found Maryville was -33 in 1974.. thanks and stay warm.
Michael

numb3rsguy
Guest
numb3rsguy

The coldest official temp in January for KC is -20 degrees in 1912. Oddly enough, December (-23) and February (-22) both have colder record temps. This is likely because those months are subject to stronger frontal systems as we move into and out of the heart of Winter. January is the coldest overall, but the massive fronts come as the weather is changing.

Randy Keller
Guest

Hava A Happy New Year Gary! Thanks for everything..

GO SOONERS