A Very Dry Weather Pattern Continues: A Look Into The Cycling Pattern

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Good morning bloggers,

The Arctic Blast Watch continues for this holiday weekend! A brutally cold air mass is developing and about to blast into the United States. We will look into this developing pattern and also discuss where we are in the LRC.  An extremely dry stretch of weather continues over many areas of the United States, especially across parts of Kansas, Missouri, and over Southern California.  Los Angeles has had an incredibly low 0.12″ since October 1st, when their rainy season begins. Last year 5.48″ had already fallen, and 3.82″ is average by now.  This is 3% of the average rainfall so far in this early season.  The driest year ever recorded in Los Angeles has been 3.38″. The majority of their rainy season is still ahead of them in January and February.  Kansas City has also been extremely dry.  I know last year I was concerned for a drought in the spring and summer, and those concerns are again very high.  Last year, KC started getting hit by regular heavy rains once spring began. There is a chance of that happening again this year, but that chance is rather low.

This Cold Wave Is Right On The Cycling Pattern Schedule:

Screen Shot 2017-12-28 at 7.16.57 AM

The second cycle of this years pattern is in progress now. Cycle #3 will begin in around two weeks, and we can hope that it will be more functional as there have been no major storms in KC in this second cycle.  We will be looking into the third cycle soon. For today, let’s look at where we are now:

Today’s Weather Video

The latest models have this forecast valid on January 1, 2018 below.  A 1052 mb (31.06″) surface high is settling in right over Omaha, NE:

1

Take a look closely, well, it isn’t that hard to see. The entire nation is pretty much dry as it will be controlled by this large and expansive high pressure area. There is snow over the shipping lanes off the east coast and a cold rain in the Gulf of Mexico. There is some weak Lake-Effect snow through the Great Lakes, but other than this the weather is dry nationwide, and cold:

2

Kansas City will likely drop to near 10 degrees below zero with the -20°F air reaching close to northern Missouri. This is just brutally cold.  What is next? A huge warm up is likely before the Chiefs home playoff game on January 7th. Now, specifically for that day it is still unclear, but a rise to near 50 degrees or higher is likely between now and then as LRC Cycle 3 will be about to begin. For now, get ready for the Arctic Blast!

In the video, I showed the warm front from LRC Cycle 1 and discussed how something similar is happening now. Well, take a look:

3

Some warmer air will be approaching, but the Arctic air will then blast in Saturday. This map above is a forecast for noon on Friday.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go over to the Weather2020 Blog and join in the conversation as we share in this educational and fun weather experience.

Gary

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f00dl3
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f00dl3

Silly touch screen phone makes my Ts come out as Gs…

f00dl3
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f00dl3

I kind of looked into the idea of trying to get GRIB2 ECMWF data. – It’s upwards of $10,000/year from the source. Want to keep people from wanying to learn meteorology, that’s how to do it. Good thing the US NWS and Canada are not that stingy.

(Look up grads / wgrib2 and learn programming to process GRIB2 data. My source is on GitHub along with my other tools – github.com/f00dl3/asUtils — xs7.java, xs/*, Models.java, and everyghing under Model/ do the processing )

MMike
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MMike

EMAW,

Yes sir, the brutal cold weather for the next 10 days is good for nothing.

Go Chiefs!

Emaw
Guest
Emaw

‘Man this arctic blast of sub zero temps coming is great I can’t wait!’
Said no one ever! Snow lovers you better start rooting for it to warm up if you want appreciable snowfall. As far as football goes isn’t UT supposed to be competing for national championships every year with all of the 4 and 5 star recruits they get?

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Lol at the longhorns comment. I admit my thoughts aren’t also conveyed properly, but my main point is that several people thought it would be doom And gloom and doom dry last year and I believe it was after the spring for many areas and the lrc is applicable throughout the U.S. correct? Unless as Gary mentioned we get the amplified weather and a split stream that digs to our southwest I don’t see how winter will yield what snowlovers or weather enthusiasts want. What are the odds of that happening? Also what is likeliehood of below normal, average or… Read more »

BSMike(Dallas Cowboys)
Guest
BSMike(Dallas Cowboys)

On another note HOW BOUT THEM LONGHORNS boys a girls!! Hook’em. SORRY the weather is boring!!

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Texas sucks, you won big deal.
MU produces NFL starters left amd right, Longhorns produce nobody

BSMike(Dallas Cowboys)
Guest
BSMike(Dallas Cowboys)

You must be drunk on egg nog or maybe it’s the dryness your experienceing!! Mu sucks we’ve lost to you twice only while you were in the big 12. So think again !!

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

Omg Hume, you’re a Mizzery fan after all the crap that went down a few years back? Mizzery is so bad off they are giving away free tuition to any in-state person, the administration is a complete leftist joke. Mizzery has 24 NFL players and Texas has around 30, but Texas players actually play and the Mizzery players are on the bench. I’m not even a Texas fan but Mizzery has always had the worst fans and now are one of the least desirable learning institutions in the world.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Well said Urbanity!

Phillip
Guest
Phillip

You’re a jack wagon and literally have no idea what you’re talking about… never heard so much dumb 💩 fall out of someone’s mouth like that. Holy hell 🤯

Tdogg
Guest
Tdogg

There’s like 8 people that comment lol

stl78
Guest
stl78

This blog is fun..lol. glad we dont have the same troll that has plagued us for yrs

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

It’s dry, this is a cold dry pattern, and not just here. Out here west of Salina we have been seriously dry since early June, but for this winter the entire plains area has had very little precipitation. No comparison to last year, there will not be an abundant spring rain season, and summer will be a dry hot record setter. If you believe in the LRC then to me the picture is quite clear. I said it earlier this month, the big circular flow in the weather pattern produced nothing the first time, and nothing again (as Gary showed).… Read more »

Tim
Guest
Tim

I would agree– but the same exact was said last year as last year’s LRC was dry. The instances of record breaking rains we had earlier this year as far as I can remember– admittedly did not fit the LRC– so anything is possible at the end of the day,

MMike
Guest
MMike

The summer will be a dry, hot, record setter…

Hmmm…I heard that before. Oh yeah, just this year back in JAN.

Oh my!

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

It’s the same but different. Bank on the super dry and hot year.

Alex Pickman
Guest
Alex Pickman

All the doom and gloom of this dry pattern aside….I feel like this is the longest that 1 inch of snow has hung around on the ground for quite some time lol. Still have ~1” here in Stewartsville, MO.

stl78
Guest
stl78

Guess it depends on how much. Anyone here pay for the Euro? If so, how much. Thxs. Clint, the other day i didnt have access to the overnight run untill 0300 so maybe that site is having issues🤞

Rockdoc
Member
Rockdoc

Says the URL not found on the server…whatever that means. I noticed its not a usual link in that there is no http:// rather it is wx….

stl78
Guest
stl78

Rock, do u pay for euro?

stl78
Guest
stl78

Sigh…really don’t wanna pay for it

Clint
Guest
Clint

It’s just not that much better than the GFS to justify it for me. And as of right now the Canadian has been somewhat good.

stl78
Guest
stl78

My euro link is not workin..anyone else havin an issue?

Clint
Guest
Clint

Mine isn’t either.

Dave
Guest
Dave

In my opinion all of those that had the exciting stormy summer need to back off those that have endured a long stretch of boring dry summer weather. Not very sympathetic on some of you and maybe you won’t get much this winter the spring and summer either. Who will you complain about then? Oh wait you guys just criticize those that aren’t hopeful and all rosy and positive. You want everyone to act and think like you, that isn’t realistic.

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Sure Dave. You’re being ridiculous. Kurt can complain all he wants. It’s fine. He does it daily. It’s a 2 way street. Like I said, when it’s not great at my house, and it’s kansas so there are many times when it’s not the best weather, I don’t go on blogs and repeat myself almost daily. It’s almost comical what he says. We KNOW it’s dry. Repeating the same thing over and over gets old. He should at least get some new material.

Roberta
Guest
Roberta

Then we won’t hear from you much this summer if it’s always dry at your place praise the lord (smiley face)

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Well Roberta, I might come on and say it’s dry and we need some rain, but I won’t do it daily for 10 months or do do in a way that makes it appear that I’m Debbie Downer. Maybe once or twice in a few months.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

You’re a grumpy cat today not very classy at all, Still dry here.

MMike
Guest
MMike

Kurt,

Classycat was simply stating the facts..that’s all. Did so in a respectful way also.

We know it’s dry, saying the same thing most days won’t change it. Nothing we can do about it.

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Not grumpy at all Kurt. I really hope you get moisture up there. I sincerely do. Lack of rain is not a good thing on a lot of fronts. I’m just hoping you can find something positive to say in a not so positive situation. We’ve just heard the same stuff for so long. We get it. No need to tell us any longer that it’s dry in your area. It’s dry here now too. Not as dry, but getting all the rain we did in such a short time frame wasn’t as beneficial as it may appear. I’m sure… Read more »

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Dave,

One very important detail, St Joe is only in D0 which is abnormally dry. Sorry but if it were like California was, by all means cry your eyes out. D0 and acting like the sky is falling? No sympathy here as I will take drought conditions over flooding any day, just look to what happened in Houston. Flooding is so much more severe than drought

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

I don’t think anyone is asking for sympathy and I think severe drought and floods are both catastrophic in nature.

This dryness is a nuisance and there is nothing of any other significance in regards to the weather up here to blog about that’s weather related if we blog about weather in our own backyards.

It’s not a positive or negative it’s the weather and I’d love to have saved all the GFS 384 models over the last year and see what each forecast for 384 hours out to see what the total forecast called fur versus what actually happened

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Kurt,

Droughts can in fact be catastrophic however, Floods create a massive ripple effect that carries on for years and beyond. Recovery from a drought can happen quickly. I agree it is irritating to deal with dry weather. A positive is droughts come with less bug issues. Mosquitos need water and ticks need humid conditions and without them, they don’t thrive :D. I sincerely hope your area gets adequate moisture this spring

Morham
Guest
Morham

Hi Gary! I hope your day is going well. I have a few questions for you or any of the bloggers. Let me setup the question. I have a trip planned for San Antonio the weekend of Jan 27th. They did receive an unusual snow event back on Thursday Dec 7th. This would be a 51 day span. Can we simply look back 44-51 days from my trip for a rough forecast for my trip? Can anyone give me a rough guess at a forecast for San Antonio? Or do the cycles start and end on specific dates and this… Read more »

Morgan
Guest
Morgan

Model consensus across the board for more of the same for at least the next ten days. Painfully boring. Until a strong signal for a storm shows up within five days on all the models, it should be taken with a grain of salt.

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Gary: Good Thursday winter’s morning to you sir. I said pretty much everything last night but will reiterate a few more things. I stick by my statement last night that I think cycle 2 has been okay regarding winter weather. For sure better than anything last year’s cycle 2 gave us. As of this date, I have just as much snow as last year at this time and it has been much colder this year. I still have snow on the ground and most likely will have until at least Tuesday. Last year we had exactly 48 hours of cold… Read more »

Nathan
Guest
Nathan

Hi all. I’ve been following the blog for years. I always notice everyone talking about the “models”. I was wondering if someone could do a quick crash course on how and where the best place is to look at the models. I’ve been looking at pivotal weather quite a bit however there is so many options I cant quite make sense of it all.

I am primarily interested in the snow side of things.

Thanks!

Troy Newman
Member
Troy Newman

If you go to winter weather near the bottom and click on total snow acc. kuchera it will give you the best reading on what the model says. Some sights give you only a 10:1 ratio but the Kuchera factors in the moisture ratio that is actually expected. It only goes out 10 days on the GFS but really thats farther than the models are accurate anyway.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Another dry spring -summer forecast, is that what I’m hearing? After not even seeing how the pattern is behaving in Spring? Sounds like same mistake as last year, having some Dena vue? Dry winters are the normal now, and to correlate them with dry Spring and Summer seasons are just not backed up by historical data. It could happen sure, but I want to see the whites of the droughts eyes before making a call. So long as vegetation is dormant who cares if it’s wet now or not?

Troy Newman
Member
Troy Newman

I agree there. For one thing a drought in winter can pretty well be made up with a 2 inch rain for row crops. Wheat can be tricky as if it doesn’t happen by April it can be too late. Now wheat is not an important crop where I live as only about 1/3 farmers plant any and those only plant maybe 20% of acres to it. Most of them hope it winters kills so they can collect a little insurance money and plant something else. Areas South and West of me probably need it more but I would guess… Read more »

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Hume there was no mistake it was dry in areas north of Kansas City, was that just an abnormality or actually part of last year’s lrc that everything north of southern Buchanan county with the exception of a few area was rather dry clear up into the Dakotas?

If the lrc is applicable to all areas then it was accurate last year saying there was a likelihood of dryness

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Real Hume,

HOW are dry winters the new Norm? 5 of the last 10 winters have been above average! I am seriously confused on how this is the new norm?

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Well I’ve been fishing many times over past several winters, that’s just how it is Any More. Little ice cover on the water, little frozen precip to speak of, warmer average temps. I’ve not had to feed hay till January 5 out of past 10 years, so yeah, it’s been warmer and drier I don’t need any other metric than my experiences

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Once again, the models 5, 7, 10 days out about snow in KC were completely and totally wrong. Mabye now we can stop looking at them and giving them any weight at all? Or do we need to keep learning the lesson over and over and over again?

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

That contradicts your reply not to throw in the towel????

Richard
Guest
Richard

Hey Kurt
I know you are on here a lot so I wandered over to tell you to check out Joe Laurias blog.
Today he said he will talk about St Joe in his blog tomorrow.

“Tomorrow I’ll be writing about about the bizarre difference in precipitation patterns from here to the IA border. St Joseph…I’m looking at you!”

His blog today has a lot of interesting points. Really. Every day he puts out a lot of interesting stats.

No I’m not “back”. So carry on mates. Have a happy New Year.

Tdogg
Guest
Tdogg

“Richard” is back? She made it about 7 days 😉

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Thanks, I look forward to reading the post.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

LoL…no it doesn’t at all. What has not believing long range models have to do with throwing in any towel?

Troy Newman
Member
Troy Newman

Does anyone have any updated dated on the models accuracy out that far? I saw one some years ago that basically said anything beyond day 7 was garbage. I doubt it has changed much.

Troy Newman
Member
Troy Newman

That was supposed to be data not dated.

Randy Keller
Guest

hey heat… kinda like following the chefs… same old same old…..

GO SOONERS

stl78
Guest
stl78

Gfs is rolling out now pete

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Kurt, in Johnson county we had an abnormally wet summer from July 1 to August 31. 28-32 inches of rain in the southern part. This was an outlier of the dry pattern. I believe your observations and opinions on the dry weather certainly aren’t crazy and may be reality. Time will tell. However, MMike is right. Pick a day from this entire year and no matter what the situation, it was doom and gloom from you. You got a tiny bit of rain…..it was complaining from not being enough. While you certainly have the option to complain about whatever you… Read more »

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

He likes the drama, that one.

Terry
Guest
Terry

Amen

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

I was frustrated at being close to a wet weather pattern, but wasn’t drama. It’s a dry boring pattern, I don’t wish this in anyone else but I’d like to see how others would put a positive spin on getting less than 75 percent of normal or 50 percent of normal precip in a calendar year. Yes, it is what it is; but I feel like the dryness some experienced was often overlooked the last lrc. Maybe if there is a widespread dry year the blog will be silent from lack of weather. My other frustration is trying to find… Read more »

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

It looks like St. Joe has gotten 27.08″ of rain YTD.
Here’s a link to the daily rainfall record for St. Joe from January 1st to today:
http://agebb.missouri.edu/weather/history/report.asp?station_prefix=stj&start_month=1&end_month=12&start_day=1&end_day=28&start_year=2017&end_year=2017&period_type=1&convert=1&field_elements=70

And here’s the webpage where you can choose the dates.
http://agebb.missouri.edu/weather/history/index.asp?station_prefix=stj

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

Kurt, This link will give you daily rainfall data YTD. Hope it works. I pasted two links previously and went to “awaiting moderation”, so I can’t send the link to the main webpage.

http://agebb.missouri.edu/weather/history/report.asp?station_prefix=stj&start_month=1&end_month=12&start_day=1&end_day=28&start_year=2017&end_year=2017&period_type=1&convert=1&field_elements=70

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Yes I’ll complain because it’s too dry. I want more rains this lrc. You don’t know anything about me other than what I post and don’t do analyze me

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

What would make me happy is a wet weather pattern

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

What particularly is there to be positive about with dry weather and lack of interesting weather? You mistake frustration for negativity and I’m really tired of some of you criticizing. Either ignore my post as I should ignore yours.

Congrats of your wet year, you got more in 10 weeks than I got in 12 months.

Hope this dryness is a fluke and moves to somewhere else in the spring and summer

Classy Cat
Guest
Classy Cat

Kurt, perhaps we are mistaking frustration for negativity. However, what would you think if the opposite was true. Why is it that we think this way? Again, it’s a free world, so you can complain and be “frustrated” about anything you choose to, but we hear the SAME thing from you OVER and OVER to the point of becoming nauseated. It’s old and tiring. We KNOW St. Joseph has been very dry. We get it. Changing a few words around, but making the same point over and over isn’t going to change anything. I would think most people would wish… Read more »

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

You make me nauseated as well, I’m going to bitch about dryness every day because it sucks. Until it warms up and thaws and then I’ll need to start watering

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

And the more you complain about me the more I’ll aggravate you.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

What are all the models saying will happen ten days from now?

Joe
Guest
Joe

4.5 inches this winter

Lary Gezak
Guest
Lary Gezak

I’ve never quite seen this “lack of moisture” problem be so impactful and have such an influence on our snow totals. That’s the main problem here. The past 2 winters at least, we’ve had this problem where our air is so bone dry that nothing can happen. For some reason it’s becoming so potent. I know colder air is drier, but apparently our air is too dry to support anything that comes in.

Troy Newman
Member
Troy Newman

The lack of moisture is being caused by the wind being persistently in the wrong direction. It takes several days of a SE wind this time of year to get moisture this far NW from the Gulf. I cannot remember a day with a SE wind this fall or winter (at least since mid Oct) here let alone several days of it. The wind has blown from the NW or W about every day until recently when it switched to the NE bu that is still being sourced from somewhere cold and dry. I know the upper flow is causing… Read more »

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Idaho got them 44 generators, some planes for cloud seeding to deepen their snowfall, increase their water supply for their hydroelectric dam for power.

If man can make it rain or snow much heavier with technology, then the possibility sure does exist for man to be able to dry up the atmosphere above us with manmade technology. Why do you think moisture always goes around us to the north or south almost all the time? Some call it the invisible dome. Do some research. 👌🏻

Terry
Guest
Terry

Things can change in cycle 3

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Things can stay the same too

Terry
Guest
Terry

Yeah true but it can Go either way . We should not throw in the towel either yet. Winter is just 7 or 8 old . Still alot of time left for things to happen.

Terry
Guest
Terry

I’m Still going for and predicting 18 to 23 inches !

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

That’s right…and since nobody knows what will happen, saying its all over is crazy. Stop the daily drama of saying the sky is falling.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Heat I wasn’t asking for your two cents, why don’t you predict what the rest of the winter will bring?

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Kurt, nobody knows do they. If I give you a hard time for saying you know the whole winter will be dry, why on earth would I claim it will be dry, or not dry..winter just started…nobody really knows how wet it will be past the short term.

Terry
Guest
Terry

Did any of you ride his blog from yesterday ? You guys crack me up over and over I just don’t look at one at look at all of them. In he blog Yesterday he was already talking about how to dry that it has been so far and in this blog he is doing the same thing. So there is no Difference in this blog from yesterday’s blog But he also did explain other things in yesterday’s blog. Go back and read it again and it will explain everything on And in yesterday’s blog Gary said he was already… Read more »

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Terry come out of dream land and don’t stand yourself like MMike enjoys doing. It isn’t going to happen this winter. Unless there is some fluke of a storm or somehow a shift of the pattern we’re going to be dry.

Call it whatever you want but be realistic people

Terry
Guest
Terry

Did you not read every blog that he has said and I’m gonna have to disagree with you you got your options I got my options. You don’t know how it’s going to happen or was not going to happen talk to me at the end a winner. I don’t look at the negative things I look at the positive things

Bobbie
Guest
Bobbie

Huh?

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Opinions not options your track record the last few winters hasn’t been very good and I was ver close in my 2017 prediction for the 2016-2017 winter and I predicted 20 inches of rain for St Joseph ended up with 26, would have been spot on without the 17 day stretch of wet weather in October.

What do you think you see other than colder periods? If cycle 3 doesn’t produce I don’t see how we’ll get over a foot of snow this winter.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

LOL…dude, really? We are barely a week into winter and it’s all over? LoL…typical blog drama when it isn’t as snowy as some hope in the moment. We have already had a couple of inches of snow a week in, and there are several more months of potential snow coming. Put away the melodrama…it’s way over the top.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

I’m just saying 20 inches isn’t my prediction, only 6 to 11. What’s your big prediction Heat you seem to have so much to say?

BoulevardGrounds
Guest
BoulevardGrounds

Patiently waiting for one of those February bangers. I really hope we see at least one whopper this season. It has been to long…

stl78
Guest
stl78

That warm front appears to b pushing that snow closer to my location for tomorrow. Bad timing as i have fam driving in from kc, st louis, and chicago for our xmas. Nam picked up on this overnight and is still on track as it rolls out this morning. What can u do? Not much but take mother nature in stride.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

How do the bloggers stay positive with today’s blog? A very good chance of the dry pattern continuing? That will make dry years in a row for St Joseph. At least it appears more areas will experience a dry lrc with my immediate area.

Stab away at yourself MMike, things don’t look good for winter lovers or those than like lush and green when it’s warm

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

I do think we’ll get rain in the spring, we’re on the eastern part of this ridge for most of the LRC, that puts us in MCS territory.

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Yawn

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Agreed wake me up for the new lrc in October (smiley face)