Arctic Blast Watch This Weekend

Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on pinterest

Good morning bloggers,

We are issuing an ARCTIC BLAST WATCH for this holiday weekend.  It is increasingly likely that temperatures will drop to dangerously cold levels with wind chills down to 30 and 40 below zero. The actual air temperatures may drop to nearly 20 degrees below zero or colder over parts of the plains.

Snowflakes

GFS Model Temperature Forecast Valid 6 AM January 1, 2018

2

The Arctic High Pressure area that is forming over the next five days will be strengthening. How strong will it get?  The conversion from millibars to inches of mercury is 29.92″/1013.25 mb.  So, multiply this by the number of millibars and you will come up with an incredibly high pressure of 31.24″, which is the conversion number for 1058 millibars.

Surface Forecast From Last Nights GFS Model:

1

I am not sure what Kansas City’s record highest pressure is, but we will be making a run at that record.  Now, will it snow with this pattern. It has continued to be a struggle, even though KCI Airport is now up to 2.2″ of snow after yesterday reported 1.1″ for the second storm in a row.  I wasn’t up there, but that seems like a high total. I have had 1.3″ and .4″ in the last two snows.  It was February 2013 when Kansas City last experienced 3″ of snow in one calendar day. That is a ridiculously long time. I am expecting this streak to end this winter season.  For now it continues to be a struggle.

The GFS model trended down, while the European model trended in the GFS direction for how this pattern will unfold. But, the European Model has not had even a dusting forecast for anywhere in Kansas or Missouri from this Arctic Blast.  It will likely again be a struggle. Here is last nights 06z (midnight) run of the GFS snowfall forecast ending January 1, 2018:

gfs_asnow_us_22

As you can see, this model is now at 1 to 2 inches of snow near KC. This would be the biggest snow of the season if it happens. Let’s see how the models trend. Notice, how there is no organized big storm at all as this Arctic Air Mass blasts south.

Kansas City ended up officially having a white Christmas with 1″ of snow on the ground at KCI Airport. Here is the snowfall chart from Christmas Day:

Snow Cover Christmas Day

Snow Cover Christmas Day 2

There is now a large snow field across the Northern Hemisphere.  This is a factor moving forward as January approaches.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today:  The sun returns!  Mostly sunny but then increasing clouds later today, and after a low below zero (-3° as of 7 AM) it will warm up to near 14°.
  • Tonight:  Not as cold with wind chills below zero with a light southeast breeze around 10 mph. Low:  10°
  • Thursday:  A few clouds, but it will be mostly sunny.  It will be warmer. High: 30°
  • Friday:  Increasing clouds, becoming cloudy later in the day.  High: 25°
  • Saturday: Cloudy with a chance of snow. Some minor accumulation possible Saturday night or early on Sunday.  High:  11°
  • Sunday (New Year’s Eve):  Cloudy with light snow or flurries ending. Total snow accumulations of around 1″ possible.  Wind Chills down to 20 below zero. High:  7°
  • Monday (New Year’s Day):  A few morning ice crystals. Brutally cold. Low:  -10°  High:  3°

Have a great day. Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  I will work on a video to show you how this New Year’s weekend pattern fits the LRC perfectly.  It is pretty incredible, and I will post this tomorrow.  Go to Weather2020 Blog and join in the conversation, or read the comments as we share in this weather experience.

Gary

Share this post with your friends

Share on facebook
Share on google
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin

102
Leave a Reply

avatar
42 Comment threads
60 Thread replies
0 Followers
 
Most reacted comment
Hottest comment thread
43 Comment authors
KurtBSMike(Dallas Cowboys)Rockdocnumb3rsguyBill in Lawrence Recent comment authors
  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
BSMike(Dallas Cowboys)
Guest
BSMike(Dallas Cowboys)

Texas Dammitt

BSMike(Dallas Cowboys)
Guest
BSMike(Dallas Cowboys)

Way to go Yexas Longhorns 🤟🏼🐂.

Rockdoc
Member
Rockdoc

QPF is the way to go, combined with extremely cold temps, and saturation in several layers shows the way. I just wish they had all parameters on one page and I could pick what I wanted to look at. Instead I have to toggle between several pages. Arrrrgh 😠

For those that don’t know, look at 850mb layer for temp/moisture. Google the importance of this layer. It also shows wind/pressure etc.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

I’m sticking with 6 to 11 for St Joseph since we’ve only had .11 QPF in the same time December 19th to today that Bill’s area had the .6. I’d rather see no more snow and hope it doesn’t get as cold.

Pretty meaningless snow anyway with such skimpy moisture in it. Like someone posted earlier only 9 more months, gotta be a better lrc than these last two duds

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Gary: Good cold winters night to you sir. Just some random observations that as always are by a hobbyist on a good day and must be taken with a huge grain of salt. Pretty interesting that we are looking at going for about 7-10 days with temps below freezing and you look back at cycle 1 and it corresponds to the time we had that string of days with temps below average. Will be interesting to see how it looks in cycle 3-obviously not as cold as we are seeing now but could be an interesting February. Interesting to see… Read more »

Dave LS
Guest
Dave LS

I’m actually more interested in looking at total QPF, more than snowfall maps, and how the model is tracking this disturbance. most likely a 15:1 maybe 20:1 ratio. Not to be negative, but I think I’ll take the under on 2 inches of snow this weekend. Hope I’m wrong.

Dave LS
Guest
Dave LS

Must have had a bad day at work. She’ll be good for a dusting to 1inch tomorrow

Adam
Guest
Adam

0z GFS removed any snowfall for this weekend. Went from showing the potential of 6+ yesterday, to absolutely nothing tonight.

BSMike(Dallas Cowboys)
Guest
BSMike(Dallas Cowboys)

How is it that about 90% of the time we miss the Alberta Clippers.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Little MCS like snow disturbance rolling through IA right now. I’ve noticed since it got cold in this NW flow tons of small scale disturbances that could make for a very wet July/August around here if they Indeed become MCS machines. Models can’t see them very well at all, they aren’t much to look at with little mositure but wait till it’s warm and muggy. Cooler, wetter summer I’m calling it now

BSMike(Dallas Cowboys)
Guest
BSMike(Dallas Cowboys)

🐂🤟🏼Hook’em Horns

MattinLeavenworth
Guest
MattinLeavenworth

So my car stays parked outside where I live and this afternoon my fear of the cold zapping the battery happened. Had to get a jump. That means new years eve will surely kill it again.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Car batteries used to be so much better – what happened? Frustrating..

MattinLeavenworth
Guest
MattinLeavenworth

I hear you there. It might be time to get a new battery. My car is a 2012 and have never replaced it. Seems like low quality tires are a lot more common now too.

Emaw
Guest
Emaw

Kurt, I drive I-29 up north to Lincoln pretty often and it was amazing to see the difference this past summer in the turf and landscape opposed to here, feast or famine around here!

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

I have a hard time location annual rankings, but appears this is the 12th or 13th driest year since records were kept.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Those are fighting words for Terry, Emaw. At this point I hop This turns around in the spring. Won’t be good up here with two very dry years in a row. Looks like St Joseph will end 2017 with 26.00 inches of precip about 20 inches below normal. We had the wet late March and early April and the west first part of October that gave us about 12 inches of that 26, minus those 5 to 6 weeks a really lack luster year for storminess. Mother Nature needs to quit being so stingy up here

Emaw
Guest
Emaw

6-10″ total . . . For the entire winter. No gulf, no moisture, no snow for you! Wind blown 1″ clippers with dry bitter cold air do nothing to help our lack of moisture.

Terry
Guest
Terry

Will see things will turn around come January and February18 to 23 inches is still My prediction

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Are these cold temperatures typical for Kansas City? A friend of mine who grew up in Joplin says this is normal. So highs in the teens and single digits are typical of a KC winter?

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

http://climate.missouri.edu/news/arc/apr2014.php
March 2014 Weather and Its Impacts on Missouri

Some locations across northern Missouri observed low temperatures on the 3rd between -10°F and -13°F, a rare occurrence for March. Another rarity was the high temperatures on March 2 across northern Missouri, hovering slightly above zero for much of the day. With temperature data since 1889, Kansas City established an all-time coldest maximum temperature for March when the mercury climbed to 5°F on the 2nd, smashing the previous record of 11°F established on March 4, 1978.

MMike
Guest
MMike

KSjones,

I remember that. I believe that was the year the storm was suppose to produce a big snow in KC but it was a sleet storm at 2 degrees. It was messed up.

MMike
Guest
MMike

Kurt,

Good,clean positive outlook. I hope all your dreams come true.

(DAG)

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

What’s your prediction Heat? I would lean toward the drier solution and most of the GFS models output has been terribly flawed with wetter solutions until a few days before the event

I don’t see how cycle 3 can flip and be wet the first 17 days like cycle 1, yes it’s just a guess but the mean ridge is really working against us

Bobbie
Guest
Bobbie

He won’t give you a direct answer. I bet his teachers scold him for it. He has a private school mentality, and goes to KCPSD lol

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

I just wanted to know, yes I try to get encouraged when a few model runs shoe wetter scenarios/forecasts, but just seems to end up resetting back to persistent dryness

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

So what’s your prediction then Bobbie?

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

when models constantly fail to accurately predict snow in kc ten days out, you’d think you’d figure out that they don’t mean anything….reasonably smart people figure out eventually that when something doesn’t work over and over and over again, you quit banging your head against the wall.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Exactly….as far snow in KC, start paying attention to the models a few days out…at least there is a chance of some degree of accuracy there. Anything a week or more out for sure have historically proven wrong just about every time.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

And the 18Z GFS has flipped back to dry now through mid January. If we end up with kinky minor precip through end of January I think the 21 inches this winter isn’t going to happen or even 10 inches will be a struggle

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

and you are believing each model run weeks out because…why? They have no accuracy.

MMike
Guest
MMike

Kurt, All due respect, every time you post you look at the worse possible secnario for each forecast. NEGATIVE! Every time I read your post, I want to stab myself in the upper thigh. Just 2 weeks ago you were saying there doesn’t look like too much cold per the GFS..that turned quickly. These little snows are just priming the snow machine, 20+ inches of snow for KC will easily be realized by the end of winter. The Chiefs are in the Playoffs…any negative thoughts on them? This is the year! Go Chiefs! (Hume, you said they had nothing left… Read more »

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

MMike I haven’t seen anything that has occurred in this lrc to waiver from my prediction on 6 to 11 inches of snow up here this winter.

I don’t know why you read my posts if it pains you so much. It’s dry here likely in the top 15 driest years in St Joseph.

Yes I want wet storms, anyone care to rationalize how that will happen when it warms up hopefully target the driest areas that have been missed in 2017?

What does what we are experiencing translate into the remaining cycles?

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Oh take sharp objects away from MMike when I post, otherwise he’s going to look like a pin cushion by spring!

Jack
Guest
Jack

gfs gave the metro 1-2 inches of snow on new years eve.

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Not much weather-wise today other than it is cold, and there is a possibility of snow next weekend. I’ll be monitoring the saturation levels and humidity/stream lines of the lower layers to see what it looks like heading into the weekend. It may just be too cold to produce anything other than scattered snowflakes. These cold temperatures are brutal on livestock and other animals, especially with the windchill. As a friendly reminder, it’s also not good for pets to be kept outdoors in this weather if at all possible. Unless you have a really well insulated dog house with a… Read more »

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

We have two outdoor cats for rodent control and they refuse to come inside. We brought one inside a few years ago and it went ballistic, so I made them a shelter made of glass on 3 sides (sorta like an aquarium but with a wooden roof). That allows them to catch some heat from the sun (when it is shining). The small door opening remains open, so the air temperature is basically the same inside as out. Then we bought a heat pad and placed it in the bottom of the shelter, and the cats hang out there all… Read more »

Rockdoc
Member
Rockdoc

You are such a kind soul. Thanks for sharing your ingenious idea. Absolutely wonderful. All creatures great and small 😙😻😻😻

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

https://weather2020.com/2014/01/05/snow-wind-chill-warning-brutal-cold/
January 5, 2014
Snow, Wind Chill Warning, Brutal Cold: Lows near -15°

Kansas City finally got a widespread snowfall . . .

Snowfall totals: 

St. Joseph, MO:  4.8″

KC North, MO: 2.9″

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

Waiting for the numb3rs guy to let us know the last time we went through a cold stretch like this. Seems like 1989 or thereabouts we had a cold spell, I remember before the flood of 93 it was dry around here, creeks that never went dry only had water in the deepest holes, and that winter the low ponds and creeks froze near solid and a lot of fish died. Seems like it was around 1989-90 time frame, because normal rains started falling again a year or two before the huge flood.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Keith – You have creeks around there with fish in them? Seems like I didn’t see a decent creek anywhere west of Salina but I know there’s got to be some around. You know it’s cold when the ponds freeze top to bottom, can’t remember any times that’s happened here you could always chop ice down to water eventually even if the ice was 12″ thick or more. I Remember Grandpa driving the tractor over a little hole in the creek to break Ice for the cows, it was too think to chop but the tractor managed to break it… Read more »

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

I lived south of Manhattan at that time, McDowell and Humbolt creeks, and lots of ponds in that area.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

I think it was 1988-89, 1988 was dry and so was 1989 until the new lrc. February of 1989 the water level was so low for ice jams that St Joseph had no water for 3 days. We’re now on well water in the city after that and the flood of 1993, finally relocated our water source for the city.

Can’t wait for return to wetter and stormier lrcs with more active winters, even if that’s once every 4 or years

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

I hear ya, active winter weather is exciting and rare. Don’t want it every year, but every other year wouldn’t be bad.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

The coldest winter on record: 1978-79
The coldest temperature ever recorded in St. Joe: -25°
http://www.weather.gov/eax/kcwinterstats

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

I remember that horrible winter very well (1976-77 and 1977-78 were almost equally brutal) but here are the coldest individual months of winter in my lifetime: December 1983, January 1982, February 1979. Dishonorable mention would go to: December 2000, January 1997 and February 2007. There were some memorable Novembers and Marchs as well: November 1986 and 2008. March 1984 and 1998. I am sure there are many more I left out but distinctly remember these………….

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

Oops left out the incredible November 1991 which was followed by about the mildest (as mentioned in this thread) winter ever, especially that freaky February 1992 when I swear it was in the 70s most of the month.

numb3rsguy
Guest
numb3rsguy

Urbanity,

I’ll write up something in tomorrow’s blog about the cold weather we’ve had. I’ve got plenty of numb3rs for ya. 🙂

Randy Keller
Guest

-15 air temp.. no wind. sw of lincoln ne

GO SOONERS

Phillip
Guest
Phillip

That looks like a mess for us here in Kc… we need the moisture however we can get it, but I’d rather it be in the form of snow

Garrett
Guest
Garrett

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017122712&fh=378&xpos=0&ypos=0

90 percent sure it wont be this big,but the sheer size of this thing is crazy on this model run

Bobbie
Guest
Bobbie

The Ten Day Rule is in effect for that fantasy storm.

Always ten days away…

Joe
Guest
Joe

And always pure fantasy

MMike
Guest
MMike

Can’t always be pure fantasy now can it? Storms have happened from being modeled 10 days out.

Matter of fact, it’s happened many, many, many times before.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

MMike, Pointless to try and get through to most of the bloggers on here. They said the same thing about the Christmas Eve Snow, fantasy, poof, never going to happen and we know how that turned out. As you know, we keep hearing how these winters are the new norm and we have only had 2 out of the last 10 winters with any measurable snow, wrong. 5 of the last 10 above average and average of 21+ inches over the last decade. Cant have cold or snow without a negative AO and NAO, wrong. Cant have below zero temps… Read more »

MMike
Guest
MMike

JoeK,

Yep..you forgot the “always 10 days away remark” but when it shows up they’re nowhere to be found. Same crowd with the drought talk for every growing season for the last 5.

They also called for another warm winter…awful cold right now..

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

All one has to do is read the forecast discussion on the NOAA long range forecast section, they clearly indicate that the most likely outcome for the next 10 days is very little precip for the plains, except Texas, and continued storminess along and off the atlantic coast. Also continued lake effect snow. A large low pressure has about a 20% chance of breaking down the ridge around day 7, but more than half of the major models indicate the ridge will keep the low out in the pacific. There is only a slight chance KS will get meaningful precip… Read more »

blue flash
Guest
blue flash

I remember a New Year’s eve back in the early 70’s, I was a teenager and we had a party at a friend’s house. The low that night was -14 as I recall. We went out at midnight to shoot off fireworks and I froze my tush off. I’m not sure if that is or was a record here but it sure made an impression on me!

BIG PAPPA POOF
Guest
BIG PAPPA POOF

WHO WANTS ME TO MAKE THE COLD WEATHER GO POOF?

Adam
Guest
Adam

Me… ASAP

Farmgirl
Guest
Farmgirl

Me. Let’s see your magic.

Phillip
Guest
Phillip

Solid 3-6” this weekend 🤞🏼

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

You meant centimeters not inches?

Phillip
Guest
Phillip

No sir

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Just kidding, but I would be shocked if we ever got that much snow from one event. It’s just been a very dry pattern we are stuck in. I am ready for 60s and 70s and lots of rain please. Bring on spring.

Joe
Guest
Joe

Gonna be really tough to get to 14 inches this winter…only 9 months to the new lrc.

SnowComander
Guest
SnowComander

Agree

MattinLeavenworth
Guest
MattinLeavenworth

Well, you know I was wondering when this type of cold would show up. We had been spoiled with mild temps for a while. Looks like I’ll end up having to shut off my oil wells. Already turned one of the leases off. Can’t have frozen lines backing things up. I can’t imagine trying to operate in say the Bakken region in North Dakota. People up there say it’s an icy hell during the peak of winter.

stl78
Guest
stl78

Matt Ive worked there in dec and January. Its Terrible!!!

MattinLeavenworth
Guest
MattinLeavenworth

I’ve never been to North Dakota, but I always check the temps up there when we have these artic blasts. Fascinating to see just how far below zero they get

stl78
Guest
stl78

Whats worse is the topography. Its flat as can be and a north wind in jan is absolutely miserable!

Adam
Guest
Adam

12z GFS backed off of the record breaking cold next week. The coldest point it reaches is -6 next Monday morning.

Maybe an inch of snow before that. Much more realistic than the extremes it had been indicating.

The Canadian is still off it’s rocker..

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Yeah – Canadian makes us look like Siberia. WTF. Below zero almost for 8 days straight.

Tdogg
Guest
Tdogg

We are gonna get slam hammered this weekend. 14″ of snow and ten foot drifts lol

Kathy
Guest
Kathy

First off, I will look forward to the video tomorrow to explain how this cold weather lines up with the LRC cycle. Secondly, could one of you explain to me how this very high pressure makes it so cold? If it’s this high in the summertime, wouldn’t it be brutally hot? Guess I’m confused.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Big cold air mass or big hot air mass…they are both high pressure, just different times of the year from different regions of the globe.

Pat
Guest
Pat

Checked the records for high pressure record in Kansas City, Mo. One site said 31.11 on 1/5/1924..

Morgan
Guest
Morgan

The GFS finally comes down to earth. Cold and dry. What a shock this is.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

and yet some STILL look at models 7 and ten days out and advertise them. It’s just ridiculous.

MMike
Guest
MMike

Heat, The data from 10 days ago showed multiple chances of snow(although light) and a very cold stretch of weather. They hit it pretty good. I think your argument is that they can’t predict exactly what it will do…what can though? You use the data for trends and the trend was cold and snowier across the plains and midwest from 10 days ago. The 12z data from the GFS has us below freezing for the next 10 days. The GEM(Canadian) has us colder then the Arctic. Likely a tad overdone. Both models are dry with maybe an inch of snow… Read more »

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

These models are worthless ten days out. Even at a week they are terrible

Joe
Guest
Joe

Delusional

Terry
Guest
Terry

What are you looking at? Is still shows moisture

numb3rsguy
Guest
numb3rsguy

Gary,

I’m not 100% sure on this, but I believe the record high pressure for KC is 1060 mb. So a 1058 mb high would certainly be close to the record. Also, how do you expect the extensive snow blanket over the northern hemisphere to influence is the rest of the winter?

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

A cold refrigerant blanket?

stl78
Guest
stl78

We have warmed up to -10, wc -25. Ive been smoking alot of food while off for the holiday and the traeger smoker has struggled to keep temp. Might b time for a insulation blanket.

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

I’ve got one for mine! Well worth the money, trust me!!
Michael

stl78
Guest
stl78

Thx michael!!

Garrett
Guest
Garrett

Holy shit, that storm on the GFS is HUGE

Mike
Guest
Mike

what storm?? Which Run?

Garrett
Guest
Garrett

its one that misses us but the sheer size is huge, is the 06z run on gfs

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

Btw, ☝, didn’t know that word was possible but I say it’s at least in a good context lol

Steve
Guest
Steve

-10 here this morning SW of Hiawatha. Don’t know the wind chill.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Snow or no snow. No fun when it’s this cold. At least maybe some bugs are dying….

Skylar
Guest
Skylar

Plants might be the bigger victim here. A lot of plants in the area will start to be damaged or killed if temperatures drop below -10…

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Bugs only die when it’s dry. If cold air could kill ticks, Canada would be tick free, which they’re clearly not.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Well, it’s plenty dry around here too.

Lary Gezak
Guest
Lary Gezak

The EURO hasn’t been that great really all season. When the GFS and CMC start to converge, and stay that way, that has been the more accurate outcome. I think we will get some snow again.

The Arctic blast is coming!

Lary

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

I hate this cold weather! Already got pipes freezing at work! GRRRRRR! Please hope Mother Nature keeps her cold breath north of here! Its funny how we are predicted to be colder than some spots in Minnesota and Canada. Strange how cold pockets set up. Stay warm bloggers, recorded -10 this morning in Maryville.
Michael

Adam
Guest
Adam

Good to see Gary agrees with my assessment. You just don’t have enough moisture to work with on systems from this source region.

This will play out just like the last two “snows” we’ve had. Probably around an inch or so, again.