Good morning bloggers,
We are issuing an ARCTIC BLAST WATCH for this holiday weekend. It is increasingly likely that temperatures will drop to dangerously cold levels with wind chills down to 30 and 40 below zero. The actual air temperatures may drop to nearly 20 degrees below zero or colder over parts of the plains.
GFS Model Temperature Forecast Valid 6 AM January 1, 2018
The Arctic High Pressure area that is forming over the next five days will be strengthening. How strong will it get? The conversion from millibars to inches of mercury is 29.92″/1013.25 mb. So, multiply this by the number of millibars and you will come up with an incredibly high pressure of 31.24″, which is the conversion number for 1058 millibars.
Surface Forecast From Last Nights GFS Model:
I am not sure what Kansas City’s record highest pressure is, but we will be making a run at that record. Now, will it snow with this pattern. It has continued to be a struggle, even though KCI Airport is now up to 2.2″ of snow after yesterday reported 1.1″ for the second storm in a row. I wasn’t up there, but that seems like a high total. I have had 1.3″ and .4″ in the last two snows. It was February 2013 when Kansas City last experienced 3″ of snow in one calendar day. That is a ridiculously long time. I am expecting this streak to end this winter season. For now it continues to be a struggle.
The GFS model trended down, while the European model trended in the GFS direction for how this pattern will unfold. But, the European Model has not had even a dusting forecast for anywhere in Kansas or Missouri from this Arctic Blast. It will likely again be a struggle. Here is last nights 06z (midnight) run of the GFS snowfall forecast ending January 1, 2018:
As you can see, this model is now at 1 to 2 inches of snow near KC. This would be the biggest snow of the season if it happens. Let’s see how the models trend. Notice, how there is no organized big storm at all as this Arctic Air Mass blasts south.
Kansas City ended up officially having a white Christmas with 1″ of snow on the ground at KCI Airport. Here is the snowfall chart from Christmas Day:
There is now a large snow field across the Northern Hemisphere. This is a factor moving forward as January approaches.
Kansas City Weather Time-Line:
- Today: The sun returns! Mostly sunny but then increasing clouds later today, and after a low below zero (-3° as of 7 AM) it will warm up to near 14°.
- Tonight: Not as cold with wind chills below zero with a light southeast breeze around 10 mph. Low: 10°
- Thursday: A few clouds, but it will be mostly sunny. It will be warmer. High: 30°
- Friday: Increasing clouds, becoming cloudy later in the day. High: 25°
- Saturday: Cloudy with a chance of snow. Some minor accumulation possible Saturday night or early on Sunday. High: 11°
- Sunday (New Year’s Eve): Cloudy with light snow or flurries ending. Total snow accumulations of around 1″ possible. Wind Chills down to 20 below zero. High: 7°
- Monday (New Year’s Day): A few morning ice crystals. Brutally cold. Low: -10° High: 3°
Have a great day. Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. I will work on a video to show you how this New Year’s weekend pattern fits the LRC perfectly. It is pretty incredible, and I will post this tomorrow. Go to Weather2020 Blog and join in the conversation, or read the comments as we share in this weather experience.