Good morning bloggers,
Kansas City has dropped into the single digits and snow has developed. The KC metro area and surrounding areas a bit to the north and south are the target for this rare cold snow event that is in progress as I am starting this blog entry. It is 5:45 AM and look at the radar:
Every radar echo was producing snow reaching the surface. When it is this cold, it is actually easier for the atmosphere to saturate. All you need is something to cause lifting and then boom, snow forms. KC will have a fluffy snowfall with rations 20:1 or 30:1 possible. This means the .o3″ liquid could produce close to 1″ of fluffy snow. The models have not helped much, unless you have been monitoring the RUC or HRRR short range models. The other models have hinted at this snow, as I showed in yesterdays blog entry. The models did not have it this cold at the surface and this is likely why some of them struggled to show this developing.
This is still a difficult “nowcasting” situation. A “Nowcast” is just that, forecasting what is going to happen in the next two to four hours, or right about “now”. There will be a thicker band of snow around one to two counties wide, or around 30 to 40 miles wide, where the heaviest snow will fall. This band of snow will be quasi-stationary with a drift to the north or south. Where will the center of this band be located? This is the big question, because there will likely be over one inch in the middle of the band. Kansas City will be near this center, but it could be one county north, or one county south.
After today’s snow event moves by, the potential for a major Arctic blast exists in the next week. The models have widely varying solutions. How cold will it get, and will there be another snowfall around New Year’s Eve? The GFS model has consistently produced 1 to 3 inches near KC and a near record cold Arctic blast. The other models have been completely dry, like the European model, and not nearly as cold as the GFS. This is something we will discuss later today or in tomorrows blog. We will discuss this in the comments section of todays blog on Weather2020.com.
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