Snow On The Day After Christmas

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Good morning bloggers,

Screen Shot 2017-12-26 at 6.01.26 AM

Kansas City has dropped into the single digits and snow has developed.  The KC metro area and surrounding areas a bit to the north and south are the target for this rare cold snow event that is in progress as I am starting this blog entry. It is 5:45 AM and look at the radar:

1

Every radar echo was producing snow reaching the surface. When it is this cold, it is actually easier for the atmosphere to saturate. All you need is something to cause lifting and then boom, snow forms. KC will have a fluffy snowfall with rations 20:1 or 30:1 possible.  This means the .o3″ liquid could produce close to 1″ of fluffy snow. The models have not helped much, unless you have been monitoring the RUC or HRRR short range models. The other models have hinted at this snow, as I showed in yesterdays blog entry. The models did not have it this cold at the surface and this is likely why some of them struggled to show this developing.

Screen Shot 2017-12-26 at 5.52.36 AM

This is still a difficult “nowcasting” situation. A “Nowcast” is just that, forecasting what is going to happen in the next two to four hours, or right about “now”.  There will be a thicker band of snow around one to two counties wide, or around 30 to 40 miles wide, where the heaviest snow will fall. This band of snow will be quasi-stationary with a drift to the north or south. Where will the center of this band be located? This is the big question, because there will likely be over one inch in the middle of the band.  Kansas City will be near this center, but it could be one county north, or one county south.

After today’s snow event moves by, the potential for a major Arctic blast exists in the next week.  The models have widely varying solutions.  How cold will it get, and will there be another snowfall around New Year’s Eve?  The GFS model has consistently produced 1 to 3 inches near KC and a near record cold Arctic blast. The other models have been completely dry, like the European model, and not nearly as cold as the GFS. This is something we will discuss later today or in tomorrows blog. We will discuss this in the comments section of todays blog on Weather2020.com.

Thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC!  Go over to Weather2020.com and click on the blog over there to join in the conversation as we share in this weather experience.

Gary

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AdamBill in Lawrencestl78KS JonesMr. Pete Recent comment authors
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Adam
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Adam

As some others have alluded to, it’s important to remember the source region for this storm. The Arctic does not bring big snow storms. The gulf/four corners storms do. You will not have the abundant moisture availability with this storm, so a dusting to 2 inches would seem like the most likely scenario, if we get snow.

I do not feel it would be much more than that..

Bill in Lawrence
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Bill in Lawrence

Gary:

Good winter morning to you sir!!

Hit minus 2 last night….the geese were up all night trying to keep part of the lake open…it was very interesting for sure and loud!!! 🙂 Going on the 5th day with the high below freezing…not a bad winter stretch at all!!

Have a great day everyone

Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

stl78
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stl78

Current air temp….-13, current wc….-29. Glad im off work today!

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Baby it’s COLD outside. Neighbors water main just snapped. Not good.

Anonymous
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Anonymous

Will black ice be an issue at all tonight?

Jack
Guest
Jack

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h&rh=2017122700&fh=120&r=us_c&dpdt=

Latest GFS 3-4 inches with most in Nebraska; it will be interesting to see what the NAM says in the nex day or so… what are everyone’s thoughts.

Freezemiser
Member
Freezemiser

Oh man…I’ve got to move my oldest out of her college apartment next Saturday up in Maryville, MO. I sure hope I don’t don’t get to drive a Uhaul in a lot of snow.

Michael Casteel
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Michael Casteel

We’ve got pretty good snow pack now! I live in Maryville. Temp is -4 right now! Brrr! Even cold for Freeze! Lol
Michael

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

It’s all your own doing brother…I told you to back off but did you listen? NOOO!!!!!

Jack
Guest
Jack

It will be very interesting if the 0z gfs comes out again for the third time with 3-6 inches for kc metro. Coming out as we speak…

Tdogg
Guest
Tdogg

Storm Terry! Gonna be a mess!!!

Emaw
Guest
Emaw

It’s going to be HUGE!

JoeK
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JoeK

One can only hope right? I think we will be impacted in some way by this system , but not sure to what extent.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Although I hesitate to add to the model watching, Nam is hinting that it may line up with the New years storm depicted by GFS. Canadian has a system but sends it North. What I look for are the trends and whether each model shows a system during the same time frame thus, my posts often referring to looking for the detail behind the detail. I held true to my original prediction that we would receive snow Christmas Weekend, I am standing by that we will be impacted by the this next system as it fits the LRC. Just my… Read more »

Jack
Guest
Jack

I am not sure if you can make that statement about the nam quite yet. We need another 12-24 hours to make a statement like that. The 0z gfs is coming out now.. lets see what it looks like…

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Jack, You may see that I said “hinting at” because that is exactly what it is doing. I have learned to watch the trends and the point I was making is if you compare the GFS to the NAM at hour 84, the system is very similar so yes, we can make that statement as it is a matter of perception and it fits the LRC. Now, will the models look different tomorrow? most likely however, keep in mind that the models have not handled these systems well. I watched the same type of characteristics for the Christmas Eve System… Read more »

Jack
Guest
Jack

I was looking at the precipitation rates on the 0z nam and it looked not as organized as the gfs.. maybe by having something there at all it could be hinting at it.. lets wait and see.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

jack,

Makes sense. With that said, I generally disregard precip. rates this far out. I was only referencing the presence of a system. Although I must say, if we get as cold as the GFS is suggesting, a little goes a very long way. New GFS maintains the storm, very interesting

Anonymous
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Anonymous

Since our temperatures will be very cold this week, I plan to buy some pvc pipes and use my air compressor to make fake snow in my back yard. I will have more snow in my backyard in one day than Kansas City every had the last three years. Mark my words. Winter Storm Warning will be issued for my back yard this week.

BSMike(Dallas Cowboys)
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BSMike(Dallas Cowboys)

What’s it saying 4-6 snow?

Clint
Guest
Clint

The NAM only goes out to Sat morning but it shows snow developing over W. Kansas. All of the features line up very well with the GFS through that time.

Clint
Guest
Clint

FWIW 00z NAM looks like GFS Saturday morning.

stl78
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stl78

Nam rollin out now..through hr 66

BSMike(Dallas Cowboys)
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BSMike(Dallas Cowboys)

When’s new data out?

Emaw
Guest
Emaw

Snow total from north Olathe after Sunday and today 1″. For the snow lovers out there, “arctic blasts” won’t get you big snowstorms, the gulf will. I’m not a meteorologist but trust me. I agree with L.B we need moisture not brutal cold.

Kurt
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Kurt

Ditto, we need moisture in many areas and would be better warmer and a wet snow that could melt and soak in or a rain

BSMike(Dallas Cowboys)
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BSMike(Dallas Cowboys)

Lol. Yea they did.

Adam
Guest
Adam

Looks like moderation missed one!

BSMike(Dallas Cowboys)
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BSMike(Dallas Cowboys)

*say

BSMike(Dallas Cowboys)
Guest
BSMike(Dallas Cowboys)

Gerard went for 20% but did finally saw this could change big time!!!

L.B
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L.B

As an anti winter weather person, may I ask if anyone knows when the next warm up will be? My bean field has enough snow, planting oats this spring then goin back to alfalfa. We need a little bit more moister, I believe the spring will be wet albeit severely so but august looks prime for planting using lrc. so let’s get on to warmer wetter weather. Christmas is never over in my opinion but the cold does not do anyone good except the gas company.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

The numbers on the following website should start dropping rapidly tonight. The updated NWS forecast has us dipping to -7° tonight, and -7° on New Year’s Eve as well. That’s 27° below normal for both dates.
http://mesonet.k-state.edu/client/png/ks.min.freeze.png

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

We hit -9° at 6:15 AM. Hiawatha and Washington did too, but Scandia in Republic County was the winner @ -12°.
Fortunately, the wind has been calm, unlike the winter of 2013-14 when the persistent cold air was accompanied by 45 MPH wind.

BSMike(Dallas Cowboys)
Guest
BSMike(Dallas Cowboys)

Jerbailey still not looking at models or what ????

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

I was curious about Sunday’s forecast for the Chiefs game and wondered if it might be colder than the one last year, and discovered that in 1996, the Chiefs actually played the 3rd coldest game in the history of the NFL at Arrowhead:
http://www.nfl.com/photoessays/09000d5d824da7dd

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Oh wait, they’re playing AT Denver so I guess it’s a moot point. Though it’ll be really cold in Denver, too.

Garrett
Guest
Garrett

That snow storm is consistently showing up all day today, and late yesterday

Adam
Guest
Adam

Correct, but only on the GFS.

Clint
Guest
Clint

I wish Gary would give us his thoughts on this weekends potential storm.

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

Crazy, NOAA at a loss for the upcoming week, they want to ignore the GFS altogether because of this,” THE GFS/ECMWF…THE TWO DISPLAY COMPLETELY OPPOSITE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTIONS. LOOKING AT THE GFS…THESE RUNS FAVOR LIKELY NEAR RECORD HIGH PRESSURES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AS MSLP FORECASTS RISE TO ABOVE 1060-MB ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.” The NOAA has no precip for most of the central part of the country through the next seven days, nor do they believe it can get near as cold as the GFS is forecasting, even though the GFS has outperformed the ECMWF most of the year.… Read more »

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

As much as I’d like a big snow, I just don’t see it happening, we’re not in the right spot. If all the models can’t seem to come into some agreement anything one shows that’s so different is suspect at this point. With less than 1/10 of an inch liquid combbnec from both these events in St Joseph I don’t see anything changing. Hope with not a thick snowcover temps won’t go too deep in the negative and when it warms up we make a quick rebound with so little to melt off Really need a wet storm at this… Read more »

Phillip
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Phillip

Wasn’t the gfs the one showing the least amount of snow for our 1”er the other day? Strange how different this model varies from the others all the time

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

GFS is under 6 days out with a forecast of snow for most of Kansas, I would say there is some legitimacy there if it repeats in the next run.

Gary, I predicted on your website, 1″ or more at 1 am on Jan 1st. I think I’m gonna win the prize…..what is the prize?

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

If the GFS verifies, it would be early on the 31st that the first inch would fall.

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

The battle of the models rages on

Roger
Guest
Roger

Still no respite from dryness in the western half of Kansas. 100 days+ is definitely doable.

Adam
Guest
Adam

GFS has 6+ inches on New Year’s Eve. The Canadian has some light snow on the north side of the metro, and the Euro has nothing.

Which model wins?!?

Weatherman
Guest
Weatherman

Got roughly 3/4 of an inch over by Olathe Northwest. Not looking forward to Sunday-Tuesday of next week if that cold verifies

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

How not his, my spelling and typing is terrible

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

We’d have to have deeper snowpack to get that cold, I think minus 10 is doable but without a really deep snowpack don’t see his near all time record low happens

Nicholas
Guest
Nicholas

So the GFS is still drinking the eggnog, predicting -20’s, crazy, the Euro might win this one, but we will see…

Garrett
Guest
Garrett

whats so weird about it is it has been so consistent with near record temps

Choppy
Guest
Choppy

I usually salt everything and call it good. It’s blacktop in 30 minutes or so. No point in grinding your blade down with nothin there.

Jack
Guest
Jack

0z GFS http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h&rh=2017122600&fh=132&r=us_c&dpdt= 6z GFS http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h&rh=2017122606&fh=126&r=us_c&dpdt= 12z GFS http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h&rh=2017122612&fh=120&r=us_c&dpdt= We have 3 models in a row in which we get snow from this 30th-31st storm. In the this latest model run, the band moved south and giving us more snow here in KC. We need to see if this trend stays. This storm is 4.5 days away so it’s not like we shuld just throw this out. My gut tells me that the most snow will fall northeast of KC, but I hope I am wrong. My confidence that there will be some sort of storm is high, but anything… Read more »

Morgan
Guest
Morgan

The differences between the GFS and EURO for the weekend system are hilarious. Nice storm on GFS and bone dry on EURO.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Is the GFS reliable this winter? It’s really been to high in terms of snowfall so far this season. Didn’t MMike say Canadian model has been more consistent?

Out of curiosity what do the snow contractors do to remove the dustings of snow? The state went down the main highway with the blade raised just above the pavement to blow the last snow off. County didn’t even treat the county roads up here.

Do snow contractors use chemicals to clear parking lots with these snows? Is there enough snow to push?

Rockdoc
Member
Rockdoc

Still light snow here in south PV. Too cold to go out and measure. However, I need to go out and fill up feeders with bird seed, so I’ll try and collect a measurement then.

Next weekend’s storm may be Ok producer. Current GFS shows almost 3 inches of snow.

Morgan
Guest
Morgan

Higher ratios with that cold air would yield some impressive ratios. The GFS looks like it’s in its own world with the storm.

Dale
Guest
Dale

Large flakes about an inch in diameter coming down on the Cass and Bates county line right now. It has been a long time since I have seen big snowflakes here.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Snow is ending, sun is already trying to peek through in prairie village

Morgan
Guest
Morgan
Morgan
Guest
Morgan

The GFS is nice for next weekend.

Phillip
Guest
Phillip

Looks like that heavier band is going 2-3 counties south of us. These flurries/light snow showers look to be done in another hour or so. Can probably cancel the wwa

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

I’m curious about something here.
It seems all these little fast waves , including the dry ones, are coming from the W, WNW and NW.

Is this correct?

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Yes. My interpretation is that this winter our primary source of storms will be of this nature. The AO will have to be positive and the NAO neutral to slightly positive for snow. In regular winters the AO and NAO would need to be negative, but since we have a mean ridge in this LRC, a negative AO means that instead of having the Arctic air push storms into the 4 corners area, the storms hit the ridge and storms/air is diverted south of the ridge so far that the lows barely even mature in the southern U.S., causing us… Read more »

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Actually, this makes a lot of sense. I’ve been skeptical of the importance of a negative AO/NAO in our area, and this helps to confirm my suspicions. I think a negative AO/NAO is far more important for the northeast than it is for us.

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

Nice explanation, thank you.

With that being the pattern this year, what is the probability that MCS storms will be the norm during spring and summer?

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I’m concerned that won’t happen. The positioning of the ridge – while with a positive AO in the winter the weight of Arctic air is so heavy that it channels the storm track above the ridge along the Polar jet stream, during the Spring and Summer that interface will be much further north. That leaves us with mainly getting rain from 4 corners lows if they can bust through that ridge.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

That could be why we were so dry in late September.

The “wetter part of October” may cycle back through though, and that could be our rainy part. The reason why that did not turn into winter storms is because of the ridge acting like a dam to those systems.

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

You’ve thought this through, and I can tell because I am confused by your technical expertise. The weight of the Arctic air is heavy, now I have not heard that before, and if it were heavy wouldn’t gravity pull it down to earth instead of north to south? IDK, just asking. I wish Gary would weigh in on your conversation, because as I remember the last few storms to affect the region the PNA, AO, and NAO were negative a few days before the action took place. That is typically how it works, the effects are felt a few days… Read more »

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

I understand that part but usually MCS vorts seem to begin separate from the main flow and flourish in NW flow. Also over the last few early, mid and late summers, the AO and NAO have gone negative a few times, possibly being an influence in our, say milder, more active summer season. Just curious if in this years pattern, that NW will be strong to support MCS’s?

To add to my in depth, to much coffee thinking, if La Niña reverses and goes toward El Niño or neutral, possibly weakening that horrible ridge?

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

Ooops, to finish,
What’s the chance we go real cool and wet this coming growing season?

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Foodl3,

Just remember, this same thing occurred last year. We had a ridge in place through winter that prevented systems from digging and targeting our area and then Spring came and that changed. It seemed as though we had non-stop storms rolling through and were far from dry.

Tdogg
Guest
Tdogg

Not much snow yet

Farmgirl
Guest
Farmgirl

Any moderation in temps showing for next week? Heat pump doesn’t do too well with these artic temps. 10 days below freezing is Bleh!

I sure hope we don’t go into low record territory, isn’t that -20 something?

Hoping for at least 35 degrees for a few days as stock tanks are much easier to fill with a hose than buckets.