To Dream or Not to Dream of a “White Christmas?”

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Good Saturday bloggers,

Well, here we are on the doorstep of Christmas and it looks like we will not have to dream of a “White Christmas!” A series of disturbances will be tracking out of the Rockies, consolidating to one main disturbance as they move east across our region. Based on the current track of the system it looks like the KC area will be on the southern edge of the accumulating snow. In order for there to be a legitimate “White Christmas” we are going to need at least 1/2″ of snow as anything less could sublime before Christmas day. Sublime means the snow evaporates going from the solid to gas state.

Let’s go through the time line and then the latest forecast for amounts.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: It will be dry with increasing clouds as highs climb to the upper 20s and low 30s.

1

6 PM TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT: It will be a dry, cloudy and cold evening in KC with snow increasing across Nebraska, Iowa and far northern Missouri. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s.

2

MIDNIGHT TO 3 AM SUNDAY: The snow will be increasing from northwest to southeast and moving into KC. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 20s, so any snow will stick to all surfaces.

3

3 AM TO 6 AM SUNDAY: This is the most likely time frame for the most snow to occur in the KC area. There will be heavier snow showers embedded in light to moderate snow. Temperatures will stay in the low to mid 20s with a 10-15 mph north wind, so wind chills will be in the single digits.

4

6 AM TO 9 AM SUNDAY: The snow will be shifting east and likely ending in KC by 9-10 AM. Temperatures will be in the low 20s with wind chill values near zero as north winds blow at 10-20 mph.

5

6 AM TO 9 AM SUNDAY: This data has the snow over by 8 AM as the system races east and cold air pours south.

6

9 AM TO NOON SUNDAY: The snow will be over and the sky will be clearing from west to east with temperatures in the teens and low 20s. So, if you are headed out to Arrowhead it is going to be very cold with wind chill values around zero in the morning and single digits in the afternoon. Sunday afternoon will be mostly sunny with highs 25°-30°.

7

How much snow will occur on your yard or farm?

SNOWFALL FORECAST KC (NORTH I-70): As is, we are expecting slightly over an inch north of I-70.

8

SNOWFALL FORECAST KC (SOUTH I-70): At this time it looks like slightly under and inch. What does this mean for the Snowflake Contest? Well, it has to snow 1″, as measured by one of our 41 Action News meteorologists, at our studio on the Plaza. So, if this verifies, we may come up short.  It is going to be a close call.

9

SNOWFALL FORECAST REGION: It still looks like a band of 2″ to 3″ of snow will occur along the Missouri-Iowa border with 1″ to 2″ between that band and I-70. A dusting to 1″ is possible south of I-70. This can still shift south or north by 50 miles, so it is not quite set in stone. But, it looks like a “White Christmas” is likely for most locations in our viewing area.

10

Merry Christmas! Please don’t drink and drive.

Jeff Penner

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Freezemiser
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Freezemiser

It’s has snowed in eastern Independence! There isn’t too much but it is white outside.

Phillip
Guest
Phillip

Started snowing here in grain valley about 30 mins ago. Got our dusting already

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

I already have a very thin cover of snow on my brick patio. Everything that’s falling is sticking.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

A decent snow now falling in Prairie Village. The plows are out and running as well.

Phillip
Guest
Phillip

WC saying 4am start, but it is sure getting close!

Nicholas
Guest
Nicholas

snowing in St. Joe now.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

I’m here – waiting to see it snow. Looks to me that the thing swung south and not so much north.

Rickmckc
Guest
Rickmckc

I thought the same thing. Radar more intense to the south than to the north (up near the MO/IA border).

Jason McClintock
Guest
Jason McClintock

The Topeka 88D shows the extent of the snow, not too bad. Looks to be about as advertised. https://imgur.com/VXeIpDu The link is a radar screenshot. Snow is closing in on KC.

Fred Nolan
Guest
Fred Nolan

Dusting at best. Better than nothing. But snowflake contest lives on.

Freezemiser
Member
Freezemiser

Nothing yet in eastern Independence, MO 🙁

Morgan
Guest
Morgan

Looks kind of weak on radar right now. Bad timing for a transition, but not at all surprising.

Fredd32
Guest
Fredd32

The backside does look a little shaky at this point. Hopefully it will hold together long enough to push through. I’ve set my alarm for 4 am to check it out.

Jack
Guest
Jack

The band seems to be weakening a little bit…. it may be going through a transition.

Phillip
Guest
Phillip

I must be looking at a different radar because it’s not looking good to me 😕

Jack
Guest
Jack

It’s not supposed to look like a huge band. Based on what I saw in the model guidance, this looks exactly like what the models portrayed. The band of snow would produce an inch.. which is not much, so really the radar is not extremely impressive, but it looks good to produce an inch. But, will it stay together…

Jack
Guest
Jack

If that band stays together, it’s looking like abou 3-4 hours of light to moderate snow that should leave the entire metro with at least an inch. I believe the snowflake contest will end!

Rockdoc
Member
Rockdoc

Dang Gary, I’m back in mod. I thought Bob and I got this fixed.

Weatherfreaker
Guest
Weatherfreaker

I thought the same thing Jack. Blog is pretty dead considering first measurable snow of the season is coming, and on Christmas Eve. I’m like a kid who can’t even go to sleep thinking about the snow!

Rockdoc
Member
Rockdoc

The current HRRR shows a nice band moving in between 3-5am. Here’s the link showing 3am 1km reflectivity as the band starts to move in. http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km&rh=2017122404&fh=5&r=us_c&dpdt= Here’s the total QPF at 8 am which equates to ~1 inch of snow. http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=qpf_acc&rh=2017122404&fh=10&r=us_c&dpdt= Unless there is a jog south or further intensified vort, looks like Joe K and I will not be eating crow for Christmas. We both nailed it several days ago. This is a good thing because I prefer to eat Turkey or Duck during the holiday 😊 Happy radar watching. For those needing a good basic radar here’s a… Read more »

Jack
Guest
Jack

Blog is pretty dead right now.. maybe people are getting some sleep and waking up around 4 to track it.

Jess
Guest
Jess

What’s everyone’s favorite radar app?

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

1weather aoo.

Morgan
Guest
Morgan

What could have been with this event. People in Nebraska cashing in with this one. Here we are praying for an inch.

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

Got about 1/2” so far. Hope for three or four more!

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

We’re..sheesh, I can’t type tonight

Phillip
Guest
Phillip

Hmm? Not seeing it. Doesn’t look like it’s going to get its act together for us to see much more than 1/2” at best. For me here in grain valley anyways

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Phillip,

Focus on the backside intensity. What were hoping for and I believe we will see is for it to fill in and maintain strength. If it continues on the same path, we should see some moderate bands that could give us an inch or possibly a bit more

Fredd32
Guest
Fredd32

Radar looks really promising to me. This thing looks better than expected in my opinion.

Jack
Guest
Jack

Radar echoes do look fairly promising in northern KS between Goodland and Salina… we just need to see if it holds it act together and doesn’t transtion when it gets to us.

Phillip
Guest
Phillip

Radar already looking iffy for here honestly

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Not supposed to hit us in earnest until about 2AM – plenty of time for moisture to get act together.

Jack
Guest
Jack

Some things we know based off of radar http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USNE0353&animate=true 1) It is going to snow. You can see where the main storm is on radar; it almost seems like it is spinning. 2) It is just north of Goodland, KS. It looks like it is going to travel just north of Emporia putting Kansas City in a good spot to see a few hours of light snow. Things we need to watch: 1) The track of the vort max. It needs to travel just south of us to put in a good spot 2) The intensity and radar echos between… Read more »

Bobbie
Guest
Bobbie

A 1-2″ “storm” that’s how sad KC winters have been.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

I know I sound like a broken record however, in an effort to help put tings into prospective, 5 of the last 10 winters have been above average for snow. Since 2007/08, we have received 217 inches of snow which is an average of 21.7 inches per year so when I hear how sad or how boring KC winters have become, I can’t help but believe it is merely a case of the age old ” perception is reality” and in this case, it really isn’t. Historically speaking, we receive the bulk of our snow in January and February.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Put THINGS not tings LOL too much egg nog 😀

Phillip
Guest
Phillip

Mr. Brett Anthony is saying there could be a little low forming in this “storm” that could enhance our totals around the immediate metro.. 1-2” is what he’s saying now

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

Finally getting some snow here in Maryville ho ho ho

Terry
Guest
Terry

I get to play in some snow tomorrow Awesome .

Tdogg
Guest
Tdogg

That’s great news Terry. Invite Heatmiser too and play nicely together.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

LoL…Tdogg seems obsesses with Terry and Heat….lonely maybe?

Terry
Guest
Terry

yeah very lonely he is lol

Nicholas
Guest
Nicholas

right now there are some very weak echos near St. Joe, but can also see the moon abit through the clouds and virga attm.

Phillip
Guest
Phillip

Are the echos close to northern Missouri going to be verga to start?

sedsinkc
Guest
sedsinkc

Radar echoes rapidly increasing across SE Nebraska. Looking forward to waking up tomorrow to at least some snowfall.

Psychotic Aardvark
Guest
Psychotic Aardvark

Any info on the possible snow next week?

Phillip
Guest
Phillip

Any chance this thing surprises us with 2” in spots?

Morgan
Guest
Morgan

Trending north on the short range models.

Alex Pickman
Guest
Alex Pickman

I’ve got a comment in moderation currently, but it was just me expressing my thoughts on the 3km NAM. Rather exciting, and but likely a bit bullish output for the US-36 corridor and points north. 0.4” of liquid seems a bit much out of this system, but clippers are know to surprise every now and then.

Alex Pickman
Guest
Alex Pickman

I’m liking the 3km NAM for us up here along US-36. Angles that lead nose of precip into Missouri and over the 36 corridor instead of up on the border as you can see below… https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=us&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2017122318&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=0 This in turn shifts that heavier axis of precipitation just a bit further south, as you can see in this next map… http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=qpf_acc&rh=2017122318&fh=33&r=us_c&dpdt= Now, I’m thinking this is overdone in terms of QPF, with this showing over 0.4” of liquid precip, but these clipper systems have been known to surprise from time to time…and with snow ratios between around 15:1 to maybe 18:1, someone… Read more »

Darrin
Guest
Darrin

What are models saying now?

Phillip
Guest
Phillip

Gary was just live on fb with an update. Still dusting-1”

Phillip
Guest
Phillip

Nothing from Gary today, I’m surprised! Any updates?

Morgan
Guest
Morgan

The GFS is weak and slightly north. Dusting to half inch at best.

Tdogg
Guest
Tdogg

I hope Terry and Heat’s parents let them enjoy the snow tomorrow. They absolutely love it. Here’s hoping they get enough snow to sled on!

Clint
Guest
Clint

You just be careful walking home to your moms house tomorrow. Enjoy your Darth Vader footed pj’s your getting for X-Mas.

Clint
Guest
Clint

You just be safe walking back home to your moms house tomorrow, I don’t want you to slip and fall at milk and cookie time.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

Hmmm…..The NWS expects it to begin snowing here before 8 PM.
https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/uppermissvly_loop.php

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

When I was outside getting my mail just a moment ago I actually felt a few faint drops of precipitation.

MattinLeavenworth
Guest
MattinLeavenworth

I just need to move to Colorado to an elevation town of say 9,000ft like crested butte or woodland park. Crested Butte average annual snowfall is over 16ft!

Phillip
Guest
Phillip

Won’t even feel silly for staying up to see an inch of snow 😛

Phillip
Guest
Phillip

Lmao there would be a 1” circle with me in it around 2” everywhere else 🙄

Freezemiser
Member
Freezemiser

Yea, me too. At this point I’ll be glad to see anything.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

1-2 inch snowfall in Lawrence…sniff, it would be a Christmas miracle

Matt Maisch
Guest
Matt Maisch
Matt Maisch
Guest
Matt Maisch
Matt Maisch
Guest
Matt Maisch

RAP consistently painting the snow today from one run to the next. Nice coverage too.

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ggem&p=snku_acc&rh=2017122300&fh=84&r=us_c&dpdt=

Matt

BSMike(Dallas Cowboys)
Guest
BSMike(Dallas Cowboys)

H_ LL yeah