A First Look Into The First LRC Cycle

/A First Look Into The First LRC Cycle

A First Look Into The First LRC Cycle

Good morning bloggers,


This map above is a 16-day forecast from the GFS model (06z or midnight central time).  There are many interesting things to ponder by just looking at this one map.  The most obvious is the brutally cold air mass that is forecast to blast into the middle of the nation.  The second thing is where it is located.  Something you do not see here is that our LRC computer model has had this predicted for a few weeks already to arrive around mid-December.  Fred Broski, who used to be a weathercaster in Kansas City, has become a good friend of mine and he is just such a funny and insightful guy. He isn’t even a meteorologist.  He did the weather and entertained audiences for years on television for many years here in KC. He has explained to me many times when I complained a bit about how dry it is, etc; “Gary, of course the weather is doing exactly what it is supposed to do”.  Think about that statement. This first cycle was fascinating. The weather in the second cycle will be equally as fascinating. As the weather pattern repeats, and cycles through this winter two more times before spring gets here, the weather will do exactly what it was supposed to do. We are trying to predict it, and we have learned a lot in the past few years, but we are still predicting the future. We have made our forecast for the winter. Let’s see what actually happens.

Here is my video that may explain a little bit of this.  Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go click on the blog at Weather2020.com and join in the conversation.


2017-12-01T15:58:47+00:00November 30th, 2017|General|60 Comments


  1. MikeL November 30, 2017 at 9:03 am - Reply

    Counting today, Topeka has officially had only 0.17″ of precip in the last 40 days (10/22 – 11/30) falling on only three days. Nothing much expected in the next twelve days on the above map stretches the dry streak to 50+ days. Not the kind of start to winter I was hoping for.

    • Gary November 30, 2017 at 10:30 am - Reply


      What happened between October 7-22 is also fully involved in this years pattern. This cycle may have not produced much in this part of the pattern, but the next cycle may very well be much more functional in our area. The storm systems that produced in those first 15 days of this pattern were “real”, in other words and I will use this term again “functional.


  2. terry November 30, 2017 at 9:13 am - Reply

    So the Excitement had with some of the 17 or 20 days stormy Stretch that you expected or the stormy part that you was talking just before Christmas is know longer there ? So in other words much screwed again ?

    • Richard November 30, 2017 at 11:54 am - Reply


      Yep. Screwed again. Up until yesterday Gary has been saying ON KSHB that we will get our first inch by Dec 15. But in this video I think he is saying it won’t happen.

  3. mark meyer November 30, 2017 at 9:17 am - Reply


    you have mentioned that cycle 1 started around 7 oct-when did cycle 2 start?

  4. BSMike November 30, 2017 at 9:21 am - Reply

    So basically I hear Gary totally indulged in modalitis here. Just yesterday he was fired up on a 10 day out storm and now he can’t believe it’s so dry. 🤔🤦🏼‍♂️🤦🏼‍♂️🤦🏼‍♂️

    • Bluetooth November 30, 2017 at 7:04 pm - Reply

      Modalities??? What about the LRC?

  5. terry November 30, 2017 at 9:24 am - Reply

    so I guess the 21.5 inches is in Jeopardy already

    • Bluetooth November 30, 2017 at 10:30 am - Reply

      Yes Terry, the 21.5 inches is in serious jeopardy, not that it was realistic to begin with.

    • Richard November 30, 2017 at 11:56 am - Reply

      The 21.5 has been in jeopardy since the new lrc began !
      Why he predicted 21.5 is beyond me. Once again.

      • Bluetooth November 30, 2017 at 7:07 pm - Reply

        Richard, it’s like a football game, a chiefs game if you will. The call for 21.5 inches is analogous to throwing an interception that was returned for a touchdown. Gary now basically says never mind about December, maybe in January.

  6. Mike November 30, 2017 at 9:28 am - Reply

    Regardless of what the current models are showing it will snow in December!! I am going out on a limb and saying at least 5″ this December. Each cycle has its own seasonal twist and I do believe that the first cycle typically isn’t the end result of what will happen. Maybe Gary can elaborate on this but over the years the first cycle is kind of a blended version of the old with the new. Lets see how cycle 2 plays out. Just my two cents from a guy who lurks on this blog for years along with KSHB’s.


  7. Snowflake November 30, 2017 at 9:30 am - Reply

    Someone asked on yesterday’s entry about the last several years of Gary’s snowfall forecasts compared to verification, so I dug through the archives (let me know if you want a link to a previous forecast–I won’t copy/paste them all here or else this post will probably get locked in moderation, but I have them all bookmarked and can post any that are requested).

    Here’s the numbers:
    Year__________Gary’s Forecast_____Actual
    2017-18……………….18-21″…………………? ? ?

    • Snow Miser November 30, 2017 at 9:43 am - Reply

      Thanks. I would only consider two of those to be accurate forecasts.

    • Troy November 30, 2017 at 10:20 am - Reply

      Good info. I kind of think the forecasting snow amounts is just impossible. The difference between 2 inches of snow or 10 inches of snow could be 2 degrees or and even then it could be about a half inch of liquid.

    • Gary November 30, 2017 at 10:24 am - Reply

      As you can see, we have a good trend here. My forecast went in the right direction three out of the past four years. So, if this year is more on that trend, then it would be four out of five. I will look at the positive here. Looking back on the 2010-2011 season, it started out with very low totals and an inactive season, and then boom, it hit hard and fast. As my memory may be a bit off here, but in the blog we were thinking I had this forecast spot on, then bam, a big January-February snow season. So, let’s hang on and see how this year pans out.

      By the way, all these numbers are not exactly right. Last year my prediction was 14.5″, not 17. That 17 was our weather team’s average.


      • Richard November 30, 2017 at 12:00 pm - Reply


        How can you say 3 out of the last 4 years it went in the right direction ??

      • JoeK November 30, 2017 at 6:22 pm - Reply


        What I find interesting is that if you predict 3/4 inch of rain and we receive 1 inch, nobody says anything as that is viewed as accurate. Several years you were within 3 or 4 inches of snow of which, in terms of rain can be the difference of a 1/4 inch ! I guess perception truly is reality with some people. If you are within 6 inches of your snowfall prediction for the winter, I view that has highly accurate. Also, if you predict below normal snowfall much like in 2016/17, I view that as an accurate forecast regardless of the difference in amounts as long as it was a below average season. In an effort to get people to actually read and understand your entire forecast rather than just a number, might be a good idea to just forecast in general terms , Above average snowfall, slightly above/below, average or much below average.

  8. Michael Casteel November 30, 2017 at 9:53 am - Reply

    Here’s my November totals: Which by the way won’t take too long!!! I recorded three rain events all month, November 12th-.10″, November 15th-.13″, and November 18th-.32″. For a total of .55″ Not very much moisture. I am concerned that if the storms don’t get to us and travel further East we will likely be heading for a drought in 2018! Have a great Thursday bloggers,

    • KS Jones November 30, 2017 at 4:08 pm - Reply

      The only “rain” we’ve had here (north of Manhattan) since October 14th came on those same days (November 12, 15 & 18), but those were mostly drizzly days and our total was only 0.29″.

  9. Paul November 30, 2017 at 10:27 am - Reply

    Mother Nature is going to do what it is going to do. Models are just mathematical calculations based on current conditions.

  10. Jason November 30, 2017 at 10:27 am - Reply

    Bye bye snow for here in Lawrence? At least that’s the way it’s looking. Ugh……

  11. Lary Gezak November 30, 2017 at 10:54 am - Reply

    Snow back on the GFS for the 8th-9th and 15th-16th. The 15th storm has been showing up for a while now

    • Gary November 30, 2017 at 11:01 am - Reply

      It fits, bloggers. It fits the LRC.


      • Lary Gezak November 30, 2017 at 11:05 am - Reply

        Gary, is this another fantasy snowstorm? Or could it be a real chance?

        • Bluetooth November 30, 2017 at 7:14 pm - Reply

          Lary Gezak, please, please let it be real……

      • Snowflake November 30, 2017 at 11:31 am - Reply

        Which October precipitation events line up with snow for Dec. 8-9 and Dec 15-16?

      • Clint November 30, 2017 at 11:34 am - Reply

        I have two questions. Do both systems fit and is there suppose to be a 4 corners low around the 15th.

        • Gary November 30, 2017 at 11:51 am - Reply


          Both systems fit. The bigger one around the 15th still had issues in the last cycle. In the past three winters KC was almost always in the wrong spot, and this wrong spot was a much larger area last year. I just see this mid-December system as being one that will produce enough of a storm to allow a prediction of 1 to 5 inches of snow. Now, it could go just north or south, so as usual, we have to monitor it closely. But, we finally have a system that fits the pattern, and at the same time, a very cold air mass is likely to be in place. The other smaller systems around it also have to be watched, including next Tuesday’s storm. That system fits the LRC from the first cycle quite well. Those of you who want to, can look back to around October 14 to 16th range as this swung across. It phased into the flow, but it is something to monitor. It would be nice to “break the ice” and get a lead system.


          • Clint November 30, 2017 at 12:07 pm - Reply

            Thanks seems like it’s been a long time since we had a functional SW storm bring us any snow

      • Heat Miser November 30, 2017 at 12:00 pm - Reply

        Hilarious how little it takes for such drama on the blog. “OOOh NOOoooo, we are all screwed, not snow again this winter”. Then models indicate snow, and there is hope again. We will get a some decent snow folks, just chill out.

        • BSMike November 30, 2017 at 12:08 pm - Reply

          Modelitis bro at its best!!!

        • joe November 30, 2017 at 6:26 pm - Reply


          So true! Its the same thing year after year. That is one thing I really enjoyed from MowerMike, He was good at going back in the blog, copying certain posts from the same folks that are always naysayers and giving them a friendly reminder of how often they were wrong 😀

          • Bluetooth November 30, 2017 at 7:29 pm - Reply

            Joe, sorry, but I must look to differ. The nay-sayers were correct most of the time. How many days has it been since the last 3 inch plus snow??? How many false and incorrect assumptions were made? Too many to count.

            • JoeK November 30, 2017 at 8:26 pm - Reply


              Respectfully, not sure how you quantify that when in fact the few I am talking about called for drought, no drought, called for no snow, got snow. MMike proved it by going back into the blog and reposting their original post so how can you “look to differ” when you don’t even know the specific posts I am referring to? I am not saying anybody currently is right or wrong as in my humble opinion, I haven’t seen enough of this new LRC to make that determination. With that sad, I do believe their will be some twists this winter. False and incorrect assumptions? As I stated above, that statement is relative to perception of which, we will have to agree to disagree. If Gary forecasts 20 inches of snow and we receive 17, I consider that accurate. If he predicts 14 inches or below average snowfall and we received 5 inches, I still consider that an accurate forecast albeit not spot on, but accurate simply because the below average prediction was made. Some don’t and I respect their opinions however, I find that people in general, focus solely on measurement rather than the detail behind it. If you want one example, last spring, many predicted impending drought and guess what, no drought in the KC area. There were dry and in some cases, drought areas around KC, but not in KC. At the end of the day, it is all in good weather fun, learning and making attempts to predict the future

        • Bluetooth November 30, 2017 at 7:15 pm - Reply

          Heat, you are, screwed weather wise, whether you know it or not….

        • Aryl Kagez November 30, 2017 at 8:49 pm - Reply

          Give it time. It will snow one of these months……

    • BSMike November 30, 2017 at 12:07 pm - Reply

      Your confusing me with that dang name 🤦🏼‍♂️😳

  12. Roger November 30, 2017 at 11:20 am - Reply


    Kansas: Moderate Drought – 15.33%
    Missouri: Moderate Drought – 39.61%, Severe Drought – 16.64%
    North Dakota: Moderate Drought – 48.08%
    South Dakota: Moderate Drought – 48.06%, Severe Drought – 18.64%, Extreme Drought – 5.92%
    Montana: Moderate Drought – 53.50%, Severe Drought – 30.20%, Extreme Drought – 12.27% (OMG!!)
    Utah: Moderate Drought – 52.00%
    Arizona: Moderate Drought – 73.10%
    Oklahoma: Moderate Drought – 39.90% , Severe Drought – 20.80%
    Texas: Moderate Drought – 35.11% Severe Drought – 5.50%
    Louisiana: Moderate Drought – 51.40%, Severe Drought – 18.87%
    Mississippi: Moderate Drought – 56.80%
    Arkansas: Moderate Drought – 85.20%, Severe Drought – 61.27%, Extreme Drought – 14.66% (OMG!!)
    North Carolina: Moderate Drought – 14.86%
    South Carolina: Moderate Drought – 27.26%
    Georgia: Moderate Drought – 13.75%
    Alabama: Moderate Drought – 13.25%
    Hawaii: Moderate Drought – 26.32%, Severe Drought – 6.99%
    Florida: Moderate Drought – 12.25%

    This has happened pretty rapidly in the last 4-6 weeks.

  13. stl78 November 30, 2017 at 11:43 am - Reply

    We get it Roger…lol

    • Roger November 30, 2017 at 11:51 am - Reply

      Just trying to temper expectations some. I hope some storm system does pan out though!

      • JoeK November 30, 2017 at 6:29 pm - Reply


        The great thing is the drought can and will disappear as quickly as it developed. This is traditionally a dry time of year for a number of regions. regardless whether it is snow or rain, a few big storms can change everything. Let’s hope that is the case

        • Bluetooth November 30, 2017 at 7:17 pm - Reply

          Please say it’s so Joe!!

  14. jeffnks November 30, 2017 at 1:30 pm - Reply

    Hello! Tuesday night we got a decent amount of rain down here in Wichita. .30 at my house. Been very dry here as well. Think im going to give yard a good watering this weekend with highs in mid 60s before the cold hits. I just wanted to say I enjoy everyones remarks and the posts to see maps. Down here they are calling for between 10 and 14 inches of snow. I think our ave down here is 14 or maybe as high as 16. But colder then normal for winter. They did say we have less snow because of us being on the warmer side before it changed. So wondering if we will atleast get decent amount rain atleast.

  15. Rod November 30, 2017 at 1:46 pm - Reply

    Gary you mentioned that you feel like we’re on the back edge in Kansas City whete storms are intensifying. Like you said the other day on my question about providing winter snowfall forecast totals for different cities in Missouri this may explain why one of the other stations in Kansas City I won’t mention which one came out with their winter forecast and showing heavier snow totals from Columbia up through Quincy Hannibal area. I’m assuming this is the case because if Kansas City is on the back edge Columbia St. Louis & Hannibal are a little bit further east and get in on more of the action. Could you try to work this into your blog the next couple of days just to give bloggers perspective on snow totals and maybe even show points west of Kansas City as well. Great blog and video today I really enjoyed it. Thanks Rod Ashland, MO

    • Gary November 30, 2017 at 2:39 pm - Reply


      I still need to do that forecast. The next three weeks will tell us a lot. Thank you, and I am glad the video made sense.


  16. Bobbie November 30, 2017 at 3:16 pm - Reply

    Big snow 16 days away!

    • Bluetooth November 30, 2017 at 7:19 pm - Reply

      Say it aint so Bobbie- I was counting on that snow storm to replenish my yard. Now, I’ll have to buy a new garden hose….

  17. Blue Flash November 30, 2017 at 3:22 pm - Reply

    Woo hoo I picked December 15 for the snowflake contest

  18. Alex Pickman November 30, 2017 at 4:12 pm - Reply

    So much negativity lol.

  19. Freezemiser November 30, 2017 at 5:25 pm - Reply

    Whoa! What did I miss? I bailed on this blog because I just couldn’t justify the ice to pay for the membership. Now, after linking to this blog from the Storm Shield app, I find it must be free.

    Woohoo! It’s good to be back. Heat Miser…I’m still Mother’s favorite.

    • Anonymous November 30, 2017 at 7:11 pm - Reply

      My kids just watched that movie last night.

    • Heat Miser November 30, 2017 at 11:00 pm - Reply

      There you are icicle head!!!!! No way, Mother likes ME best!

  20. WxAmatuer November 30, 2017 at 10:02 pm - Reply

    Would it be possible to do a time lapse of the cycles fro cycle one, two, three, and so on, instead of looking at one individual map?

  21. Bill in Lawrence December 1, 2017 at 7:09 am - Reply


    Happy Friday morning to you sir!!

    First off all….yesterday was absolutely gorgeous!!! We have had some amazing weather these past days…just beautiful!!!

    A very random observation this morning……the 0Z GFS had my low some where around 40 for this morning. At 9:25 last night on my way home, we were already at 28. Here at my house 700 feet above the valley floor we bottomed out at 26 degrees before the surface high skirted to our east. The GFS was almost 20 degrees off for the low in my area. This has happened several times with the GFS and it may be something to monitor if we ever have an icing/freezing drizzle situation. The NAM has done much better handeling the local temps so far in this LRC.

    Speaking of that surface high skirting ot the east….first of all…man that was quick!!! Secondly….it was pretty cool this mornign when I was out at around 5:00AM you could feel the return flow and the warm up already beginning. Love Kansas weather!!

    Finally…for a neutral to negative NAO and negative AO we have very little blocking right now in NA…these systems are zipping by quickly. I noted in my LRC journal that if we had the negative AO in cycle 2 (it was forecasted in cycle 1 but never developed) some these early cycle systems could maybe dig and provide some interesting weather….not yet though. The best part of the pattern is still upcoming…time to sit back…check th entitles and watch cycle 2 unfold!!! (I even think in the “warmer” part..ie these past 2 weeks there could be some fun….our coldest reading of the season occurred the morning before Thanksgiving)

    Just some random musings!!!

    Have a great Friday everyone!!

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawerence about to get the Get Smart Affect!!

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