A Possible Storm Next Week

/A Possible Storm Next Week

A Possible Storm Next Week

Good morning bloggers,

This Thursday begins with a surface cyclone developing and tracking across the plains states.  This would certainly be an interesting severe weather set up in the spring, but today it will likely only produce a few showers.  I plotted the surface map this morning and there is a low pressure center near the Oklahoma/Kansas border due south of Dodge City, KS.  It is difficult to plot any very obvious fronts in today’s set up, but as this low moves by, the winds will shift to the north and cold air will move in. Look how the winds all blow towards the low pressure area. Remember, winds will blow towards low pressure and away from high pressure with a deflection of crossing the isobars. I drew in the isobars, the lines of equal pressure. This is how you analyze these surface maps. In the spring, if this were 7 PM instead of 7 AM there would likely be a pretty good risk of severe thunderstorms.  But, today, due to a lack of any low level heating, there is not much risk at all. A few strong thunderstorms may still form over far southeastern Missouri later today, and a few showers are possible near KC.

Scanned Image

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: Areas of fog and some drizzle this morning. There may be a few rain showers. The wind will shift from the east to the northeast, and then to the north at 5-15 mph.  High:  55°
  • Tonight: Decreasing clouds with winds out of the north at 5-15 mph. Low:  39°
  • Friday:  A few clouds mixed with sunshine with light easterly winds.  High:  55°
  • Saturday:  Partly cloudy. High:  65°
  • Sunday:  Partly cloudy with the wind shifting to the north. High:  70°

Don’t Forget The Time Change Is This Weekend: Fall Back One Hour Saturday Night!

Next Weeks Storm?

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All of the models that I have looked at and analyzed have an interesting storm getting caught in the southern branch of the jet stream.  It has my attention, but it will be somewhat suspect for a while, especially on what it will produce at each location. It is not showing up as a large feature, and there is a stronger northern stream about to take over. The one interesting thing, however, it that all of the models have a somewhat similar solution. It is less than a week away. So, it is is something that we will learn more about today. Will it continue to show up? This map above shows the wave of energy from the GFS model. For fun today, I will use three different models. This map above is the GFS, and these next two maps show the Canadian Model solution showing the surface forecast and the European Model solution showing the precipitation type, all valid next Wednesday:

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Screen Shot 2017-11-02 at 6.51.56 AM

As you can see, there is a winter component to this storm and the rain/snow line is forecast to be located near Kansas City next Wednesday.  Again, let’s see if this continues to show up. By tomorrow, we will then within five days of this possible storm, and then we can pay a little closer attention to it. We will need to analyze the trend in the models.

Thank you for reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Join in the conversation over at Weather2020.com and we can discuss today’s models and answer any questions you may have. Have a great day

Gary

2017-11-03T08:15:50+00:00November 2nd, 2017|General|26 Comments

26 Comments

  1. BSMike November 2, 2017 at 7:47 am - Reply

    Good morning Gary and fellow bloggers. That storm will be perfect for next week. I took off for the Rut of deer season next week. Love sitting out in the wood experienceing the great outdoors and weather.

  2. Three7s November 2, 2017 at 7:50 am - Reply

    I don’t think we’ll see any wintry precipitation out of this, but if it does do anything, it will be extremely miniscule. It is good that we’re seeing some snow chances in the first cycle though.

  3. f00dl3 November 2, 2017 at 8:34 am - Reply

    That would also be a good position for a low to give us snow if it was 20 degrees cooler (i.e 57 days from now, December 29-31 🙂 )

  4. Jsquibble November 2, 2017 at 8:41 am - Reply

    According to heady the cycle is shorter this year at around 45 days so this storm will return around Christmas??

    • numb3rsguy November 2, 2017 at 9:11 am - Reply

      How can we know the cycle length if the pattern hasn’t repeated yet?

      • Jsquibble November 2, 2017 at 9:36 am - Reply

        That’s the same thing i want to know! But he posted maps of the “same features” on his site. I guess the cycle sets up but reacts differently when the actual pattern starts. I’m confused just like you lol

  5. Clint November 2, 2017 at 9:14 am - Reply
    • Urbanity November 2, 2017 at 9:24 am - Reply

      I wonder if Gary would comment on this, but it seems a negative NAO has more impact precipitation-wise than the AO. In my mind the negative AO brings in the cold and the negative NAO provides blocking for storms to dig across the US. If we have both then we have cold air and the chance for storms to dig and strengthen before they move out of the central US.

  6. Fred Nolan November 2, 2017 at 9:39 am - Reply

    Poof.

  7. Kurt November 2, 2017 at 9:45 am - Reply

    Has anyone noticed that even though we’ve had several good freezes there are some trees that haven’t shed their leaves? Rose of Sharon usually drop their leaves after a freeze. Also some ginko trees have yet to turn. Also the hostas are still green as well as columbine and some hardier annuals (petunias). Maybe the last winters had such a late freeze and it happened when it dropped so dramatically it stayed below freezing for longer than overnight. Just curious as I don’t recall so many trees slow to turn and still with leaves after 3 mornings in the mid 20’s up here.

    Also wouldn’t mind a week or ten days of what used to be called indian summer to get a few outside yard projects done before winter, but this seems to be a much more active cooler lrc so far…

    • Richard November 2, 2017 at 11:11 am - Reply

      Thats what I said last week ! But nobody else commented.
      There are still a lot if trees hanging on to green leaves, or the leaves have turned brown/curled up but still on the trees.
      It was an underperforming fall as far as colors go.

      • Gary November 2, 2017 at 3:00 pm - Reply

        Look closer. I think it is beautiful. The cloudy day adds to the color in my opinion. And, everyone, I am visiting a friend at the hospital who is going through some trouble right now, so this is why I am likely off the next two days. Just so you don’t wonder. I believe everything is okay, so don’t worry about it.

        Gary

        • Urbanity November 2, 2017 at 4:09 pm - Reply

          Sorry to hear that Gary, I’m sure your positive outlook will enhance the mood of your friend. I hope your pal quickly gets through whatever it is they are going through.

        • Richard November 2, 2017 at 4:40 pm - Reply

          Sorry about your friend Gary. Your significant other? Hope all goes well.

          And about the trees/leaves. Depends on which part of the metro. Here in Olathe there is more brown and green than colors.

          • MMike November 2, 2017 at 6:13 pm - Reply

            I was down in Olathe today, the tree colors looked right on Q to me.. notice a lot of beautiful color, especially on the Maple trees.

    • George November 2, 2017 at 12:36 pm - Reply

      I noticed the same Kurt. I have several Hostas and Day Lillies in my garden that are still nice and green. No evidence of dying back into dormancy. I also have 3 huge Oaks in my yard that are still green as well – also alot of the trees on my street are still green as well.

      Referencing Richards earler mention of our KC area now in Hardiness Zone 6 instead of Zone 5 basically moves our perceived/expected climate to be closer to that of Southern Kansas down to about Oklahoma City(which was the old Zone 6 before the update). A quick Google search shows the annual snowfall totals average 6″ (OKC) to 13′ (Wichita). With the exception of the occasional extreme swing I think this is what we have to look forward to.

      Gary’s LRC may accurately predict what the cycle may do but it may not do what you want it to do!

      George in OP 87th & Antioch.

      • Richard November 2, 2017 at 1:59 pm - Reply

        George

        Thank you ! Yep, the hardiness zone being pushed up to 6 for us a few years ago was the “telling” sign for me when they did that. The true changing of the fall seasons come later, winter comes later, ending sooner, spring comes earlier it seems. Regardless of what the calendar says. Nature knows and nature adapts. The climate in these parts has changed rapidly in our lifetime.
        Not getting into a climate debate here. But we do need to face facts that KC may just be changing as far as “average” snowfall amounts go, aside from the occasional wild swings.

  8. f00dl3 November 2, 2017 at 10:30 am - Reply

    We have had clouds, drizzle, fog, and rain pretty much steadily for 4 days. Throw in a faster moving jet stream and a bit more moisture being pulled up over a 15-20 degree colder airmass 2 months from now … this would be one of our signature storms we are seeing right now right?

  9. Kurt November 2, 2017 at 12:35 pm - Reply

    We’ve had very vivid color up here near St. Joseph. Some trees started losing leaves in August and we now have a mix of bare trees, trees with full color and those still green. Just not sure how typical it is to have the leaves hang on even after some decent freezes.

  10. Urbanity November 2, 2017 at 4:10 pm - Reply

    My trees leaves started turning brown late August, because of dryness and heat.

  11. Elaine Watson November 2, 2017 at 4:22 pm - Reply

    Gary, If Halloween was the second coldest, what was the temperature and date of the coldest Halloween on record? Keeping up my weather journal :).

    • numb3rsguy November 2, 2017 at 4:31 pm - Reply

      For high temperatures, this year was the second coldest at 38 degrees. The coldest temperature was 36 degrees for a high in 1951. We were not the 2nd coldest by average temperature or low temperature.

      • Anonymous November 2, 2017 at 6:42 pm - Reply

        What would be interesting for any research buff would be to look up 1951/52 and see how the rest of winter ended up. LRC would be good for any year so we should be able to look up any month in history and see how that month translated to rest of that LRC year.

        • numb3rsguy November 3, 2017 at 6:36 am - Reply

          The winter of 1951-52 we had 21.2″ of snow, so just above average. The average temperature from Dec-Feb was 34.6 degrees, making it the 23rd warmest. Overall not terribly impressive, although, I don’t think the fact that 1951 had our coldest Halloween in history determined the rest of the winter. Gary would have to look at the pattern that year.

  12. Fred Nolan November 2, 2017 at 5:53 pm - Reply

    Thats crazy it was only the 2nd coldest. I sure do remember some cold and wet Halloweens when I was a kid.

  13. Elaine Watson November 2, 2017 at 6:34 pm - Reply

    Thanks numb3rsguy. Gary, sending positive thoughts your way.

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