The Changing Pattern – Three Weeks Into This

Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on pinterest

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today:  Mostly sunny and breezy with temperatures warming to near 70°
  • Tonight:  Turning much colder, windy, with a few periods of clouds.  Low:  34°
  • Friday:  Mostly sunny with a few clouds at times. Windy and colder. Northwest winds 20-35 mph.  High:  44°
  • Saturday:  Freeze Warning. Low:  29°

Weather Discussion:

Let me begin by explaining how fascinating this cycling weather pattern is as we discuss these first three weeks of this years LRC.  There are many of you that have followed our discussions in the blogs and on television for years, some of you for 15 years. And, there are others that are brand new to this concept. There are three main aspects to the LRC.

The LRC:

  • A unique weather pattern sets up every year between around October 1st and November 30th.  The first day of the new pattern is around the end of the first week of October or around October 7th give or take a few days. We have identified a possible caused of this beginning to the cycle as the sun sets at the North Pole on the Autumnal Equinox, and then it is twilight for almost two weeks and this twilight ends around October 5th to 7th each year. This is about the same time that the LRC begins.
  • Long-term long wave troughs and ridges set up and become established for the entire next year from October through September. These features are where storm systems reach their peak strength and weakest strength most often
  • The pattern is cycling and regularly.  This cycle becomes established in October and November, but it can not be identified and verified until we go deeper into the second cycle of the pattern, and this usually happens in December and our confidence is achieved by early January at the latest.

We have identified a quantifiable way of finding the cycle a bit earlier and this is part of our research paper this is in the review process.  The weather pattern is now likely set for the year but we have only seen these first three weeks of this weather pattern.

1The weather pattern is definitely unique. This means it has never happened before, which is one of the main aspects of the LRC.  One of the big features to monitor is over Alaska and over Greenland. This map on the left shows the height anomalies at 500 mb, around 18,000 feet up.  Notice the above average heights from Alaska to the North Pole with the below average heights over Canada extending south into the Great Lakes.  This is valid around one week from now.  Some blocking at high latitudes is trying to develop.  This will lead to some very cold air forming over northern Canada during this next ten day to two week stretch.

What happens next is very important and we will see a lot of what this pattern will mean for this up coming winter season soon.  But, we have to experience it first. I can’t stress this more. These other forecasts that have come out way too early, in my opinion, did not include the biggest piece of the weather puzzle.  This puzzle is now coming together and this map on the left is important for many reasons, and i am just now beginning to “see” the answer to this winters forecast problem. There are many questions and answers that will continue to come up and I will share them with you in this Action Weather blog featuring Weather2020 and the cycling pattern.  Go to Weather2020.com and ask us any questions you would like. This subject will be discussed a lot more as we get closer to issuing our winter forecast in just four weeks.

A fantasy weather model at 372 hours? Well, likely yes, but this “look” has now happened many times since the pattern began around that first week of October.  There is a storm over Kansas and Missouri on this November 10th, forecast, and the kicker upstream as well is something we have seen multiple times. This was discussed in the video blog earlier in the week, so go back and take a look.

2

Again, I stress patience. If I was going to make a preliminary look into winter based on these first 21 days I would lean to KC having at least average snowfall this season. We have had a total of 24 inches in three years or 1000 days of weather patterns. 24 inches in 1,000 days. So, 18 inches of snow or more would certainly seem like a lot to any of us who have just experienced these past three winters. Another stat I will be throwing out there is the fact that there have been 31 days with measurable snowfall the past three winter seasons. 31 dates and only 24″ of snow. I will let you do the math on that one.

1

You can enter the snowflake contest now.  I will have my forecast as we get close to the deadline, unless a good chance starts realistically showing up. Have a great day!

Gary

Share this post with your friends

Share on facebook
Share on google
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin

106
Leave a Reply

avatar
63 Comment threads
43 Thread replies
0 Followers
 
Most reacted comment
Hottest comment thread
25 Comment authors
Fred Nolanstl78BSMikeMr. PeteMikeL Recent comment authors
  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
Fred Nolan
Guest
Fred Nolan

Sheesh. Enough questions on the Snowflake contest questionnaire? I realize all of my info is being given to Joslins, Im not sure you need to know if im married.
BTW, why is there a redirect when viewing the KSHB site on a mobile device?

stl78
Guest
stl78

Light snow here in mn this morning

BSMike
Member
BSMike

Good morning and happy WINTER!! Just got to work and logged into NWS and it says light snow and 38. Lol I didn’t see any snow driving into downtown.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Y’all are funny. I’m 43.

stl78
Guest
stl78

Thx bs. Its been awhile since I’ve done it

BSMike
Member
BSMike

Rockdoc

You have to be sign into the weather2020 for it to work. But first you have to go to what stone cold said and go to settings. I did it today.

BSMike
Member
BSMike

Pete how bout 68😀

stl78
Guest
stl78

I care mr pete….ummmmm…50

stl78
Guest
stl78
Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

I guess no one cares about my age? Agree with the earlier post about less oak itch mites this year. The winds are now howling out of the north.

stl78
Guest
stl78

Once u go there its pretty simple if i remember correctly

stl78
Guest
stl78

First rock, did u go to gravatar?

MikeL
Guest
MikeL

Hey stl78, I got a link that has free euro snowfall maps that I’ll post tomorrow. I’m mobile right now and don’t have it handy. Got it off another forum just yesterday.

stl78
Guest
stl78

Really. Thats awesome and greatly appreciated mike

stl78
Guest
stl78

He always had a ton of punctuation errors and people gave him a hard time about his spelling. He tried real hard but had some challenges I hope he gets a good winter

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Can anyone give step-by-step directions for the avitar? I’ve tried in the past and just gave up. Sometimes some of us rock-n-roll dinosaurs are tech challenged and need assist. No Grandkids to help out, just fat cats 😂😂😂

stl78
Guest
stl78

Yes the Terry that got overly excited about the s word

stl78
Guest
stl78

I wonder where the old terry is?

Richard
Guest
Richard

Old terry ??

terry
Guest
terry

Yes same old terry

terry
Guest
terry

I’m 47

Richard
Guest
Richard

Yep 👍
I was thinking 40-ish for you terry

BSMike
Member
BSMike

J-ox that means about 54

stl78
Guest
stl78

Thx bs! Temp down to 38 with talk of expanding the wwa thats just to the west of home. Sounds like a couple inches of wet sloppy snow

j-ox
Guest
j-ox

Gary & I were born the same year!

BSMike
Member
BSMike

North wind here in Downtown KC

BSMike
Member
BSMike

Back in moderation timeout!! 🙄

BSMike
Member
BSMike

Stl78 I figured it out. Thanks for the info!!Safe travels my friend back to MN.

BSMike
Member
BSMike

Think I figured the avatar out!!

MikeL
Guest
MikeL

Actually, I am now the big 60. Grew up in KCK and have been in Topeka since 1980. Most of my family still in KC even my son who lives there now.

Fortunately, I am still in great physical shape and very active………as all 60 yr old guys would tell you… 😉

blue flash
Guest
blue flash

I just turned 60 last week. I have two teenage daughters so I have to be very active and in good shape!

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Yep, us spring chickens do pretty well these days. I may not last as long out on the dance floor, but I can still rock-n-roll 😉

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

North wind rolled into my area west of Salina around 9 am, has not been noticeably colder. Some high clouds with it, tremendous wind w/gusts to 45 mph+, steady temps around 63 degrees. It does look like there is a second front lying across central Nebraska which will probably be the one carrying the cold air. This is definitely a sign that the season is changing. Last spring we had a strange 3 consecutive days of winds close to 50 mph at times, in my lifetime I could not remember such wind, well it wasn’t but a week or two… Read more »

BSMike(Dallas Cowboys)
Guest
BSMike(Dallas Cowboys)

Tried to add my avatar but not working🤔

stl78
Guest
stl78

Lol bs…i get thst alot. The winds r brutal here in ne neb. Getting ready to head back to mn where they r callin for a bit of snow

BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS)
Guest
BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS)

I’m pumped for this cold front coming, I will be in the tree bow in hand Sunday morning. High pressure is perfect for the big bucks to get up and move. 🦌🦌

joe
Guest
joe

BS Mike,

I will be doing the same, agreed, they will start moving this weekend

BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS)
Guest
BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS)

Stl78 aka stone cold !!! I’d say 39

BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS)
Guest
BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS)

I’ve been put in timeout!!! Moderation

BSMike(Dallas Cowboys)
Guest
BSMike(Dallas Cowboys)

I’m pumped for this cold front coming, I will be in the tree bow in hand Sunday morning. High pressure is perfect for the big bucks to get up and move. 🦌🦌

Shoedog
Guest
Shoedog

Crazy year, going with the first inch of snow before we get through the initial LRC Pattern, guestimating 51 day cycle that started 10/4 so going November 22 5:07 am first inch of snow this year. I want to get Terry excited

BSMike(Dallas Cowboys)
Guest
BSMike(Dallas Cowboys)

😡

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

53

BSMike(Dallas Cowboys)
Guest
BSMike(Dallas Cowboys)

Why is my comments suddenly in mod 🙄

BSMike(Dallas Cowboys)
Guest
BSMike(Dallas Cowboys)

Stl78 I’d say 39

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

The NWS will begin issuing snow squall warnings for certain areas of the country this winter. There will be 7 offices that will issue these warnings. KC is not one of them. The closest is in Cheyenne, WY which makes sense since this part of the state and I-80 are notorious for these mini storms.

https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/snow-squall-warning-national-weather-service-winter-2018

BSMike(Dallas Cowboys)
Guest
BSMike(Dallas Cowboys)

Stl78 aka stone cold !!! I’d say 39

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Gary: Happy pre-frontal Thursday mid day to you sir!! Looks like the front has just moved through Topeka and Emporia so my winds should change to the NW here in the next hour or so. Great guesses by everyone!! 🙂 I’m actually the big 50 and am a true north lander as I grew up by KCI but went to school in Lawrence and then moved here around 2003. Been on the Blog ever since then but it was the snow bust of 2004 that really hooked me into the blog. That was an epic miss. Lawrence was looking at… Read more »

stl78
Guest
stl78

I have a pic up so u can guess a little easier. Im thinkin of purchasing Euro, any suggestions of whom to use or an idea of cost? Thx

Jason
Guest
Jason

Still not sure how you got a pic on here

stl78
Guest
stl78

Jason google gravatar

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

I’ve heard Weather Bell is good, and there is another site that someone here on the blog has mentioned that is also good.

stl78
Guest
stl78

Thx roc, any idea how much?

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

I think its around $150 or so. There may be different levels of payment depending on what you want access to. It’s been awhile. I can’t remember who reported how much it cost. It was about 3-4 years ago.

stl78
Guest
stl78

Yeah i think mower is in his 40s

BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS)
Guest
BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS)

lets not forget the mike out of liberty with all the rain gauges…. 45-50 is my guess

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Yo boy Humedude has 35 years of weather watching under his belt, yes I was watching weather as a newborn back in 1982.

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Well at least I don’t even approach the amount of snowfall in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan in terms of age….some places receive over 300 inches of snow in the Keweenaw Peninsula (rabbits ear)! The homes typically have doors on the secondary story so you can get in and out of your house! Take a look at the next link about lake effect snow, and almost all the way down look at “the famous snow-mometer in Keweenaw County, Michigan” Now that’s some record breaking snow!

https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/great-lakes-snowbelts-lake-effect-snow-records

MikeL
Guest
MikeL

Let’s put it this way…..my age would be a record annual snowfall for KC.

MikeL
Guest
MikeL

oops….scratch that. The highest was way more than I thought. I’m not that old…lol.

stl78
Guest
stl78

Ive never changed my handle

stl78
Guest
stl78

I remember platte city mike.

Kathy
Guest
Kathy

Does anyone remember what year we had multiple polar vortices hit the Midwest? I remember I had never heard of that term before and they became a media sensation in that everyone knew about them by the end of the winter. Although I am not as well-versed in the weather as you guys are, I can’t help but wonder if we won’t hear that term thrown around again this year as this cold air comes knocking at our door early in the LRC.

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Was it the winter of 2009-2010 when we had all of that snowfall? Winter of 2010/2011 was relatively mild with little snow. 2011/2012 could have also had several of the polar vortices since we had more snow and cold that year.

blue flash
Guest
blue flash

The snowiest winters at my house since 1989 (when I started keeping records) were 09-10 36.5″, 12-13 35.0″, 10-11 34.0″, 92-93 33.5″, and 96-97 30.0″. 11-12 was actually a very dry winter, only 3.25″.

blue flash
Guest
blue flash

I shouldn’t say 11-12 was very dry, we actually had 15″ of rain November – March. But only 3.25″ of snow. Had a heavy snow on March 2, but it all melted on contact. In my book, that’s not measurable snow.

BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS)
Guest
BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS)

Thanks Gary, I have really enjoyed the blog over the years. Originally I was Platte City Mike back in the day.

BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS)
Guest
BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS)

see I guessed right urbanity !!! lol

Clint
Guest
Clint

39 and ready for a good winter.