A Freeze Is Likely Within Ten Days

/A Freeze Is Likely Within Ten Days

A Freeze Is Likely Within Ten Days

Good morning bloggers,

The World Series Begins Tuesday In Los Angeles

  • 104 degrees today
  • 103 degrees Tuesday
  • 100 degrees Wednesday

How incredible is this? Record breaking heat out west as this pattern continues to set up for the season.

Weather Discussion:

We hope everyone had a great weekend. The weather pattern continues to set up for the winter. The LRC will be set in around four to five weeks and we are still near the beginning, now around 2 1/2 weeks into the new pattern.  We have around 3 to 4 more weeks of this first cycle that we have not seen or experienced yet. For those of you following the computer models from day to day, then you know how different it looks today from even yesterday. The models are all over the place.  The snow is no longer showing up and I haven’t spent even a few seconds analyzing or thinking about this early snow since it didn’t seem to fit to me.  Take a look at the latest GFS precipitation forecast for the next ten days:

1

This has not been a good trend for California.  This has been somewhat interesting for Kansas City, however. We have had some pretty heavy precipitation events during the past two weekends, but these missed other parts of Kansas.

2This map on the left shows the 240 hour, or ten day, forecast of the 500 mb flow. There is a rather substantial trough in the east. Let’s be careful about jumping to conclusions over these three to seven day stretches. If you have been following the LRC for the past few years, then you likely know that it is a long cycle. Last year cycled on an average of around 59 days. So, it is 59 days worth of pattern to analyze, not just one storm, one week.  Look at what happens just a few days later.

3

This map on the right shows how the eastern trough lifted out and was replaced by a western trough just two days later.  Again, I stress patience as we analyze this pattern.  There are many factors to consider for the winter forecast and for the pattern that we will be experiencing from now through next September.  The first three weeks have featured troughs swinging into the Rocky Mountains, intensifying out over the Missouri and Mississippi River Valleys, and then lifting out over the northeast and weakening. And, now we are going into a phase of eastern troughs for a few days. Let’s see how long this lasts, and let’s see what happens next. We are watching the evolution of this years LRC.

A Likely Freeze Within 10 Days:

These next three maps show the low temperature forecast for Friday, Saturday, and a week from Wednesday:

5

6

7

With this eastern trough swinging through during these next ten days, the potential for a freeze is pretty high near KC. Let’s see how this looks as we move through this week.  Thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the the LRC.  Go to Weather2020 and click on the blog over there to join in the conversation.  Have a great day!

Gary

2017-10-24T07:51:21+00:00October 23rd, 2017|General|23 Comments

23 Comments

  1. Urbanity October 23, 2017 at 8:24 am - Reply

    Hard to be patient when it already appears that the LRC for my area will have produced zero precipitation through the first half of it. With nothing consistent digging out west to create any southern energy it looks like another dry windy winter with some cold shots west of Salina area. I suppose if my kids need to see the snow I can drive to KC because it looks like there will be a couple heavy snows there.

    The weak LaNina, traditionally speaking, produces light precip amounts for Kansas, so of all the solutions for that piece of the puzzle it’s probably the least desirable. I would agree with you that even a week out weather is unpredictable with the changing pattern, but at the same time the models have been accurate with dryness over most of the western US, from about middle KS to the west. For this years pattern to produce anything for all of Kansas we would have to see huge transition in the atmosphere and right now seems very unlikely. Of course that is all based on the assumption that the LRC is the biggest piece of the puzzle.

    • Gary October 23, 2017 at 8:33 am - Reply

      Urbanity,

      I agree with your concerns. La Niña will be a subject this week as well. But, we can hope for a twist to what La Niña may mean. Last years twist proved huge over California as the forecasts for it to be dry out there failed. It was not only “not dry” but the drought got obliterated. There are some early signs of storm systems that would intensify over Kansas and Missouri. So, let’s see what our discussion will be in around two weeks and then we can get more concerned, or not.

      Gary

  2. Richard October 23, 2017 at 9:23 am - Reply

    Gary

    I had not looked at the 12 week forecast in the last 2 months, until yesterday.
    Currently is it based on the new or old lrc, or will you be adjusting it ?
    Thanks

    • Gary October 23, 2017 at 10:21 am - Reply

      Richard,

      It is based on the old LRC.

      Gary

      • Richard October 23, 2017 at 2:45 pm - Reply

        Thanks Gary
        So, when will it will be adjusted to the new lrc ?

        • Gary October 23, 2017 at 4:11 pm - Reply

          By early December.

          Gary

  3. Richard October 23, 2017 at 9:29 am - Reply

    We are really late on our first freeze.
    And record heat out west.

    Another “warm” winter for us ? Maybe not dry, but warm. Rain vs snow

    • Frankie October 23, 2017 at 9:46 am - Reply

      Our average first freeze in KC is October 27, so we’re actually right on schedule. And we’re already getting cold air in October. The early part of the pattern looks somewhat cool with many systems. Hope it stays this way.

    • joe October 23, 2017 at 7:19 pm - Reply

      Richard,

      According to NWS, average first freeze for KC is 10/28 and for Olathe would be 10/23 so it seems as though we are falling relatively close to the averages this year. Personally, I do not see a dry and warm winter setting up. Pattern has already been much more active, troughs look like they could dig deeper this year and the absence of a 2016/2017 comparable mean ridge, gives us at the very least, equal chances to experience a closer to normal winter in our area. Thus far, that is my humble opinion but then again, I have been wrong before and it is still very early in this years LRC.

    • Richard October 23, 2017 at 8:10 pm - Reply

      Thanks you both
      My mistake
      I thought our rirst freeze avg was closer to the middle of Oct.

  4. Kathy October 23, 2017 at 9:36 am - Reply

    Gary, above you made the statement: “The first three weeks have featured troughs swinging into the Rocky Mountains, intensifying out over the Missouri and Mississippi River Valleys, and then lifting out over the northeast and weakening.” As an amateur, I have seen exactly what you mean. Soooo…..in the dead of winter, say December or January, if these troughs are an important part to the cycle of this year’s LRC, is it possible that they would be dry? The reason I am asking is that during this year, when the Gulf was open, we had some great rains in the spring and summer, but not much in the winter. Was this due to cycling troughs not having moisture to work with in our part of the country but more to the east of us? Or do you see a true difference in this year’s troughs vs. last year’s as far as an impact for this winter?

    • Gary October 23, 2017 at 10:24 am - Reply

      Kathy,

      Good observation on your part. I am still not certain. If the storms are incapable of dropping into New Mexico, then they could be dry. Are they capable of dropping into our southwest? Is this part of the pattern? We will be doing this analysis but we must get through another three week stretch first. If they don’t dig enough, then the chance of gathering the adequate moisture for the winter storm systems is lower. So, yes these could be dry systems in the winter. I am on the fence at the moment.

      Gary

  5. terry October 23, 2017 at 10:54 am - Reply

    Gary Basically what you told Urbanity was asking and what Kathy is saying and asking the same thing !

  6. terry October 23, 2017 at 11:08 am - Reply

    Gary What is causing the storms out East to Weaking ? like you said There are early Signs of storm systems that would Intensify Over Kansas and Missouri . I’m Excited what I’ve send and heard so far.

    • Gary October 23, 2017 at 12:35 pm - Reply

      The pattern we are in is causing it. But, it is still too early to make so many assumptions. It is human nature to make assumptions, but then guess what happens, we then believe our assumptions even if they are not true. So, let’s try very hard to be patient. That’s my philosophical advice today.

      Gary

  7. Rockdoc October 23, 2017 at 11:12 am - Reply

    If I’m not mistaken, last year we were watching for the troughs and lows to form in the desert southwest. This usually happened when the trough formed over California. In fact, this is where the phrase, “closed off low is weatherman woe” came from since there were several of these that formed.

    The hope was that these low pressure systems would track through the 4 corners region if not a little further south and then eject out onto the plains coming from SE Colorado/Texas/Oklahoma region. They could grab some Gulf moisture and head towards Kansas City, plus they could also interact with moisture that may have streamed in from the Pacific NW. Unfortunately, by the time they arrived in that area the low pressure system usually turned more NE in western to central Kansas and headed to Nebraska-Iowa. We were on the dry, southern side of the storms.

    My general observation on the troughs that have been forming over the central plains and Great Lakes region is that they are digging a lot deeper than last years troughs. They extend from Canada all the way to the southern US. What this means for moisture and snow going forward will be interesting to watch.

    • Urbanity October 23, 2017 at 12:53 pm - Reply

      I don’t know Rockdoc, it seemed the “Mean Ridge” reduced the troughs to rubble when they moved out over the central plains, the exception being the late, very late, ice storm. I see the same set up except the ridge is far enough west (at the present time) that the storms are recovering when they hit eastern Kansas. The large blocking high in the SE is then forcing the systems to the NE which will tend to weaken them and become elongated. If the ridge out west can break down, which NOAA shows it possibly happening in two weeks, then we may get a trough to dig into New Mexico or southern Colorado.

  8. KS Jones October 23, 2017 at 1:13 pm - Reply

    Did I record this 2015 data correctly– 4″ of rain on December 12th? (25 miles north of Manhattan)

    2015
    October 22: Got a mist of rain (not measurable)
    October 29: 34 days without measurable rain. 
    October 30: Got 0.4″  0.55″ before midnight. 

    October rainfall total: 0.55″ 

    November 11: No killing frost so far.
    November 12: A skim of ice formed on water tubs outside.
    November 17: Got 1.4″ of rain overnight.
    November 26 (Thanksgiving): Got 1.8″ of rain including freezing rain in PM.
    November 30: Got another 1.25″ of rain in the past 24 hours.

    November rainfall total: 4.45″ 

    December 12: Got 4″ of rain.
    December 20: Got 0.52″ of rain
    December 22: Got 0.2″ of rain.
    December 28: Got 2″ of snow (~0.20″ water)

    December rainfall total: ~4.92″ 

  9. Mr. Pete October 23, 2017 at 3:11 pm - Reply

    Will it be this windy on Wednesday???

  10. stl78 October 23, 2017 at 3:21 pm - Reply

    Wind is kicking my butt as I travel across Highway 90

  11. Bill in Lawrence October 23, 2017 at 10:19 pm - Reply

    Gary:

    Happy beautiful fall evening to you sir!! It has been quite some time as things have been kind of crazy here the past few months. Picked up close to 2.5 inches Saturday which brings my October tally close to 4 inches. Several roads were closed around here Sunday due to flooding and even today, the tributaries of the Wakarusa were still running pretty good.

    I know when you look at the overall statistical average, this fall is not that much different than last fall accept of course in precipitation. However, this fall just feels better-we have had a few more cloudy days and a few more cooler mornings although ironically I had already had 2 freezes by this date last year. However, it seems we have had more mid to upper 40’s this fall than last. Whatever the case, this inmho has been a wonderful fall so far.

    Which brings to me a few random thoughts on the developing LRC. Hopefully 1 of them will make sense.

    I first of all think there is enough evidence to show that this winter will have some more excitement with it than the last two-of course that really would not take much LOL. We do have some functioning storm systems this year that were really lacking last year. Not only in reality, but also I think we’re are going to see some humdingers on some model runs in the winter months. I just think this pattern screams the models bombing out some storms only to have them wind up being miles away in reality. However, overall, I think the snow lover one me will wind up being okay this winter and for sure I see some longer colder stretches than we saw last winter and more of them over all.

    All that said, I think Gary’s words of wisdom today are something to really keep in mind. Where will these storms actually deepen? If one really thinks about it, we have been on the far western edge of these events so far in October. It seems to me that we are benefitting from the time of year more than the actual pattern itself. Which leads me to believe that this may be a better late spring and early summer pattern than winter pattern. It is still early obviously and we still have several weeks to watch, but even though we’ve had these functioning storms, are they really going to be functioning in cycles 2 and 3? It is of course too early to really make a truly educated guess, but based on early to mid October, I would predict Lawrence has at least a 60-80% chance of having between 12-14 inches of snow this winter with a 25% chance off having more but a 10-15% chance of having less. We will see some functioning snow storms this year as opposed to last year but I just don’t see 2009-2010/210-2011 or 2012/2013 walking through that door.

    Finally, all I could think about today was this set up in cycles 3 and 4; I was imagining a March or mid April time frame. You get some warm weather after winter-you are all excited for it and then the next day you have a sunny windy day with temps in the lower 50’s but it feels like lower 40’s to upper 30’s. Or in cycle 5 as you are driving to Prom or Graduation and are having small thunderstorms pop up all over the place due to the wrap around. Of course, thinking of today in January….could be darn cold indeed!!! We certainly did not have a day last October with 20-30 MPH north winds all day.

    Just some random thoughts…will be interesting to see how this all looks around Thanksgiving-still lots of time to see how this evolves.

    Have a great night everyone…oh if you respond to this with a question or critique, please know that if I do not respond back it is not me trying to duck anything…things are still pretty crazy and I may not be able top get back in time.

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

  12. Brad October 24, 2017 at 12:03 am - Reply

    Newest Canadian model has a decent snows nov 1st…

  13. Nick October 24, 2017 at 2:09 am - Reply

    the line of storms this weekend was awesome 🙂 I went to white cloud with the folks and aunt/uncle and going there from St. Joe we went right into the line of thunderstorms with awesome looking cg strikes, and then very heavy rain, even a few hours later on the way back it was still raining pretty good with the occasional bolt, and the long low rumbles of thunder when we got back home from distant positive strikes. Loved the wind today as well, I know it is still way too early to know the pattern, but it feels good getting a “win” early on anyway. Going to florida on the 6th of November for about a week, hope I don’t miss something to awesome while I am there, but also hope that something “awesome” doesn’t arrive on the morning of the sixth, lol looking forward to seeing some of florida’s weather and having a bit of summer vacation in November.

Leave A Comment