Ton of Rain and Two Cold Fronts

/Ton of Rain and Two Cold Fronts

Ton of Rain and Two Cold Fronts

Good Sunday bloggers,

The weather played out pretty much as we expected with a significant rain event without much severe weather.  Let’s look back at this heavy rainfall event and look ahead to two cold fronts and a changing pattern.

Here is the radar estimated rainfall totals from the last 24 hours with the severe weather reports on top of the rainfall estimates. There were five tornado reports in southwest Oklahoma with most reports being wind and hail.  Eastern Kansas and western Missouri had very few severe weather reports, but there was quite a bit of rain.

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Here are some radar estimated rainfall totals. Since these are estimates, your rain gauge may read different.

Rainfall from around Topeka, KS to Maryvile, MO to Bethany, MO was about 1″ to 2.25″.

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The heaviest rain occurred from southeast of Emporia, KS to Lawrence, KS to Platte county.  Rainfall amounts ranged from 2.50″ to 5″  in this band.  This is incredible when you realize that the entire month of October averages 3.16″.

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Here is a closer version of the heavier rainfall totals.  We were able to find a 5.50″ southeast of Lawrence, KS and a 4.90″ near Leavenworth, KS. Note, the map above has 3.20″ north of downtown KC, while the map below has 2″.  Well, look close and the 2″ amount is much closer to downtown, while the one above is farther north.

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Now let’s turn our attention to the week ahead and two cold fronts, one of which looks pretty strong.

SUNDAY: The sky will clear from west to east allowing temperatures to rise to the low and mid 60s.  It will be warmer to the west due to the sun being out longer.

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MONDAY: Cold front #1 of the week moves through during the day.  There will be no rain, but there will be an increase in the wind during the afternoon with highs in the 60s.

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TUESDAY:  A storm system will form in the Great Lakes and we will see scattered clouds, quite a bit of wind and highs in the low to mid 50s after lows in the 40s.  Yes, there may be a few snowflakes in eastern Iowa and Wisconsin.

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Here is the upper level flow for the next seven days and this will take us to cold front #2.

The flow today shows the wet Saturday system moving across Arkansas as a new trough drops southeast towards the Midwest.

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TUESDAY: There will be an upper low over the Great Lakes and an upper high on the west coast.  This means no rain for California with windy and cool weather in the middle of the USA and a wet storm system in the eastern USA and Great Lakes.

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FRIDAY-SATURDAY: A second, deeper trough will drop in to the Great Lakes/Midwest.  As is, this means a windy and colder end of the week and weekend for our area.  The chance of our first freeze is high and we could see a snowflake as a snowstorm occurs in the upper Midwest. The position of the trough is still a bit uncertain as it could form farther west.  If this happens we could have a storm with the cold or before the cold as opposed to just clouds and wind.

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The average first freeze dates in KC is October 11-20, so we would be about 1-2 weeks late on the timing of the first freeze if this plays out as we are depicting.

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Have a great week.

Jeff Penner

2017-10-23T08:05:07+00:00October 22nd, 2017|General|23 Comments

23 Comments

  1. Frankie October 22, 2017 at 9:24 am - Reply

    AO and NAO both forecast to dip deep negative for a while. Know this can change, but just sayin’……

  2. George October 22, 2017 at 9:24 am - Reply

    Dumped out 1.5″ this morning. 87th & Antioch. Nice watering for the new grass. Loved the thunder.

  3. Rod October 22, 2017 at 9:28 am - Reply

    Looks like according to models snow went poof for this weekend, per NWS may see a few wet snow flakes & flurries in NW flow. Interestingly the GFS paints a strip of 1-2″ of snow on Halloween into Nov 1st. Hmmm… Something to watch to see if any trends set up this week in later runs.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2017102206&fh=384&xpos=0&ypos=0

    • Anonymous October 22, 2017 at 9:58 am - Reply

      LoL…its doesn’t snow here this early. It didnt really go poof.

  4. Craig October 22, 2017 at 9:29 am - Reply

    2.45″ out here in W Lenexa.

  5. Blue Flash October 22, 2017 at 9:35 am - Reply

    2.2″ overnight in Independence. Maybe a nice Christmas break snowstorm for the next cycle?

  6. Snow Miser October 22, 2017 at 9:40 am - Reply

    Those things on the first graphic look like baseballs and Christmas ornaments.

  7. Anonymous October 22, 2017 at 9:59 am - Reply

    We’re getting snow this winter..WOOOOOTTTT!!!!

  8. Rockdoc October 22, 2017 at 10:29 am - Reply

    Good Sunday morning Jeff and fellow bloggers. Pretty chilly this morning, but thankful there’s no snow. Looking at the GFS and Euro model for next weekend the Euro has the trough further west and centered over our area of the country at Sunday (1st link). The GFS has it over the upper Great Lakes Region (2nd link).

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=eus&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017102200&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=140

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=eus&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017102206&fh=186&xpos=0&ypos=0

    The precipitation showing up for Halloween looks to be rain since temps are too warm to support snow. Yuck, a cold rainy Halloween for the kiddos. Hope this changes so it warms up and no precip!

    Well time to get out in the yard and clean the patio since this may be the last “warm” weekend to get it in order before it turns cold and snow arrives. Don’t know how much it rained here in PV but birdbath filled up 😂

    Have a Great Sunday 🌞

  9. Rockdoc October 22, 2017 at 10:31 am - Reply

    Jeff/Gary. Looks like my previous comment is in moderation.

  10. Anonymous October 22, 2017 at 10:55 am - Reply

    Just shy of 3.5 inches in gauge at 143rd and Nieman, halfway between Switzer and Quvira. It sure seems like this area has been a micro bullseye within the larger bullseye of the southern kc metro. Since July 1, I have had between 30-40 inches of rain. I’ll have to add up again to get exact. Truly unbelievable for this part of the country and this time of the year.

  11. Richard October 22, 2017 at 12:15 pm - Reply

    So that gfs that snow miser and others showed 2 wks ago, for the 27-28, might turn out to have been pretty good.
    Even if it does not snow here in KC. Still a snow storm.

  12. Richard October 22, 2017 at 12:19 pm - Reply

    Gary or Jeff

    Is the current 12 week forecast accurate yet ? Or will you be adjusting it.

    • Anonymous October 22, 2017 at 3:10 pm - Reply

      LoL! Never put any stock in 12 week forecasts…we can’t forecast with any accuracy that far out.

      • Richard October 23, 2017 at 9:14 am - Reply

        No name
        Knock it off. Say something worthwhile.
        The 2020 12 week has been pretty darn good in the past once the pattern sets up

  13. KS Jones October 22, 2017 at 3:11 pm - Reply

    This link to 24-hour rainfall totals correctly shows we got no rain here (25 miles north of Manhattan), and since harvest has been in full swing with much to go, that was good. Many ranchers have been removing their cattle from their pastures as well, so this dry weather is definitely welcome.
    http://www.weather.gov/top/weatherstory

    Yesterday’s forecast from the National Weather Service predicted a 20% chance of rain or snow with a 30° low temperature Friday night, but today they took the rain and snow out of that forecast and now predict it will be partly cloudy with a 28° low.
    If so, that will be our first freeze for this season.

  14. Steve October 22, 2017 at 4:32 pm - Reply

    .18″ yesterday 15 miles SW of Hiawatha

  15. Kurt October 22, 2017 at 5:52 pm - Reply

    2.8 here just south of St Joseph, the biggest one day rain this year

  16. Kurt October 22, 2017 at 5:52 pm - Reply

    2.8 here just south of St Joseph, the biggest one day rain this year

  17. j-ox October 22, 2017 at 6:12 pm - Reply

    2.65″ in NW Lawrence. Around 6:15pm last night, lightning ZAPPED/took out our cable box and internet modem/router as well as our garage door motor. No TV or internet until just a few minutes ago. A Sunday service call saves the day.

  18. Rockdoc October 22, 2017 at 9:55 pm - Reply

    Wow, no one is minding the store today. I have a comment in moderation that I posted this morning at 10:29, with a second one alerting them to it.

    Why bother posting anything if it sits in mod all day. The blog appears to be going poof just like the snow in the models.

    • KS Jones October 22, 2017 at 10:29 pm - Reply

      Comments appear to go into moderation when more than one link is posted.
      Try each link separately if that was the cause.

  19. Anonymous October 22, 2017 at 11:43 pm - Reply

    0.00 west of Salina.

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