There Was Not One Tornado In The United States Yesterday

/There Was Not One Tornado In The United States Yesterday

There Was Not One Tornado In The United States Yesterday

Good Sunday morning bloggers,

DSCN4563I snapped this picture yesterday as the storm was rolling into the south side of the KC metro area. This thunderstorm ended up bowing out and producing a 65 mph wind near Greenwood, MO around 30 minutes from this moment. You can see Sunny The Weather Dog ready to come back inside as the wind and rain had just started.  Farther north, there was a severe thunderstorm that created 65 mph winds over north Kansas City leading to some pretty big trees getting knocked down. This thunderstorm produced over 2″ of rain as it moved across the north side of the KC metro area.

There were strongly worded discussions that came out yesterday suggesting the tornado risk being rather significant. This system certainly had the strength in the upper levels and some conditions at the lower levels that raised these concerns, but something was always a bit off yesterday and in the end there was not even one tornado reported over the entire region.  The surface low ended up over Iowa, as it was supposed to be, and the trailing cold front was northwest of the area of thunderstorms. There was a tropical influence with a plume of moisture coming in from Mexico and the Gulf of California. This plume of moisture helped induce showers and thunderstorms most of the day over northeastern Kansas and this likely affected the instability just enough to keep these thunderstorms from becoming discreet cells.

Here are the severe weather reports from Saturday:

today

And, here is one of the trees knocked down:

North Kc

This is what a 65 mph wind is capable of doing. There were a few other big trees knocked down. Wow!

The weather pattern continues to evolve and the new cycling pattern as described by the LRC is beginning to show up. The key word is “beginning”. So, I once again am asking everyone to be patient and let’s wait and see how this evolves in the next three to four weeks. We just must wait another few weeks as the pattern is still setting up. The early evidence over the past 10 days has been fascinating.

The weather should become quite nice for the Steelers/Chiefs game this afternoon. GO CHIEFS and have a great Sunday everyone. Go to Weather2020.com and join in the conversation as we share in this weather experience.

Gary

2017-10-16T16:45:09+00:00October 15th, 2017|General|58 Comments

58 Comments

  1. Richard October 15, 2017 at 8:43 am - Reply

    Gary
    Last night a blogger showed a model with snow on Oct. 28.
    Is that a possibility ?
    Supposed to go on a trolley winery tour in Miami County that day with friends

    • joe October 15, 2017 at 11:28 am - Reply

      Richard,

      For what it is worth, the models have been back and forth with frozen precip for the last week. As we all know, the models are very unreliable that far out however, the trend is our friend. I believe we will be cold enough that week for some frozen precip and is also the reason I picked the 27th for the first snowflake in our viewing area. Of course, I could be totally wrong however, I came up with that date by using the LRC and watching the patterns. BTW, fishing has been off the charts!

    • terry October 15, 2017 at 10:09 am - Reply

      I seen these GFS Models go back-and-forth showing snow one day and no snow the . Will change again

  2. j-ox October 15, 2017 at 9:28 am - Reply

    1.5″ in NW Lawrence…yet just ~6 miles East of here the local airport w/ the ‘official’ rain gauge only claims .06″? smh

  3. MMike October 15, 2017 at 9:49 am - Reply

    That downed tree you show in the blog….80 feet from my office building. We’re just on the other side of the street. WOW!! He’s my neighbor.

    KSHB news is here right now…

    Anyhow, quite a bit of tree damage here in NKC, up to Worlds of Fun(shut the park down last night due to damage) up to Glenaire and Liberty area..big trees down.

    I had a 20 minute hurricane and then very heavy rain west of Liberty. Missed the damaging winds but at plenty of stuff rearranged in the hood..2.2 inches of rain and a total of 3.13 for the month. Much wetter then last October. Still half the month to go.

    Go Chiefs!

  4. Snow Miser October 15, 2017 at 10:48 am - Reply

    Interesting reading about all this damage yesterday, around me (a few miles SE of the stadiums) it wasn’t that bad at all. Wind never got that severe and the rain never came down at more than about a moderate pace.

  5. Anonymous October 15, 2017 at 10:52 am - Reply

    models cant predict snow two weeks out in this part of the country. People point it out when they show snow because its fun to think about, but it’s really an exercise in futility.

  6. Snow Miser October 15, 2017 at 11:52 am - Reply

    And we have yet another frozen precipitation event showing up on the 28th:
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017101512/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_46.png

    • Anonymous October 15, 2017 at 1:15 pm - Reply

      why do you keep showing frozen precip two weeks away, you know these models cant accurately predict snow in our area that far out.

  7. Richard October 15, 2017 at 12:45 pm - Reply

    Lol I don’t know the difference between x and z 00z 006z 0012z . But thanks everyone. That last one from snow miser looks like pink ice ! Ugh. Not good for trekking down to Miami county if it pans out.

    And Joe, yeah I snagged a turtle and 2 nice cats on Thursday ! 😄

  8. Richard October 15, 2017 at 3:23 pm - Reply

    Gary is live on Facebook at Arrowhead panning his phone around to show the stadium and flyovers during the National Anthem.

    Go Chiefs

  9. waldo weather October 15, 2017 at 6:36 pm - Reply

    Saw Mike’s post earlier this morning for Richard… just curious.. what website do people like most for their weather maps? Thanks

    • Rockdoc October 16, 2017 at 7:23 am - Reply

      Morning Mike. Looks like a dusting of snow since no real accumulation. Awfully early too since the leaves won’t be off the trees. If it does snow I hope it’s not the wet/heavy variety. Just in time for Halloween. Snow pumpkins 😉

      • Mike October 16, 2017 at 7:32 am - Reply

        Good morning Rockdoc,

        It is super early but it is fun to talk about even if it doesn’t happen. How cool would it be if it did snow in October?

        Mike

      • Three7s October 16, 2017 at 7:39 am - Reply

        How can you tell that there’s no accumulation? Tropicaltidbits only shows snow accumulation up to 240 hours. I’m not going to say that this is a major snowstorm, but maybe an inch is possible? It will certainly be cold enough.

      • Snow Miser October 16, 2017 at 7:41 am - Reply

        I’m dreaming of a white Halloween …

        • Rod October 16, 2017 at 1:46 pm - Reply

          I am as well. ❄️

        • Kirk October 16, 2017 at 2:14 pm - Reply

          Lets get rid of those oak mites shall we?

  10. f00dl3 October 16, 2017 at 7:55 am - Reply

    Previous stuck in mod.

    If you really want to get deep into stuff you can make your own. You better have unlimited data though! GRIB2 data can use lots of data fast! I posted some Java on GitHub that I use to process weather data… github.com/f00dl3/xs7 for weather station data, and still in progress, github.com/f00dl3/ModelsJ for model processing. Best place to download the raw data right now is the NOMADS NCEP server, nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/

  11. Mr. Pete October 16, 2017 at 9:09 am - Reply

    Sad Chiefs

  12. Richard October 16, 2017 at 9:16 am - Reply
  13. Rockdoc October 16, 2017 at 9:25 am - Reply

    As to how I indicated that it looked to be just a dusting, I used total accumulation (snow depth) on pivotal weather. Here is the 18z shot for Friday October 27th at 1 pm. Based on this, I would assume that most of what would fall overnight (06z) into early morning. Temperature for 18z shows 36 degrees so if anything does fall it will melt…. 🙂

    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snod&rh=2017101606&fh=276&r=conus&dpdt=

    • Mike October 16, 2017 at 9:38 am - Reply

      Rockdoc

      That is another great site for Richard to use.

      Mike

  14. Richard October 16, 2017 at 10:25 am - Reply

    Gary’s not saying a word about the possible snow on the 27-28.
    Where is he

    • Mike October 16, 2017 at 10:37 am - Reply

      Hi Richard

      Be patient it is two weeks out. Anything can happen and I am sure it will. Models change every 6 hours.

      Mike

      • Three7s October 16, 2017 at 10:54 am - Reply

        Even if it doesn’t snow, just the mention of it in October is something we haven’t had in years. That’s a step forward to the constant 70-80 degrees and dry we’ve gotten the last 3 Octobers.

  15. Three7s October 16, 2017 at 10:54 am - Reply

    Sorry, meant to say “a step forward from”.

    • Richard October 16, 2017 at 11:08 am - Reply

      Not a step forward when leaves are still on the trees.
      My maple they are just curling up drying out not turning their beautiful yellow, not dropping.

      Gary must be mourning the Chiefs loss.

    • Richard October 16, 2017 at 11:10 am - Reply

      Three7s
      it is warming u again this week.

      • Richard October 16, 2017 at 11:10 am - Reply

        up

  16. Snow Miser October 16, 2017 at 11:45 am - Reply
    • Frankie October 16, 2017 at 11:57 am - Reply

      Been showing up for a while! Regardless, end of the month looks frigid

    • Snow Miser October 16, 2017 at 12:55 pm - Reply

      BTW, did anyone in the snowflake contest guess in October? Would be funny to see them win!

    • joe October 16, 2017 at 2:14 pm - Reply

      Snow,

      It has been trending that direction for the past week or so. I believe it will be cold enough if the moisture is timed right. Also, quickly after, it looks to warm back up a bit for Halloween at least, that is if I have the patterns identified correctly

  17. Rockdoc October 16, 2017 at 12:19 pm - Reply

    The GFS is showing a huge deep trough that digs south all the way to Texas starting on Friday the 27th. There is a low pressure area way up in Canada, but no blocking high pressure. This will probably be the first hard freeze if the model verifies. It starts to lift out as it transitions to the east, only to be followed by a mini trough on Monday. The model run winds up with a trough and closed off low up in Nebraska and the Dakotas. This is pretty far out there at 384 hours so who knows what will happen. We all know that things can go poof 🙂

  18. Michael Garner October 16, 2017 at 12:27 pm - Reply

    Why am I getting an email saying my Weather 2020 subscription has been canceled? Free now I thought?

  19. LSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS) October 16, 2017 at 12:57 pm - Reply

    NO BLOG TODAY!!!!

  20. LSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS) October 16, 2017 at 12:58 pm - Reply

    Hey everyone, I moved to Blue Springs so I guess my name will now be BSMIKE …. LOL

    • blue flash October 16, 2017 at 2:48 pm - Reply

      Hasn’t it always been? lol

  21. Richard October 16, 2017 at 2:43 pm - Reply

    No blog
    Lezak must be sick

  22. blue flash October 16, 2017 at 2:47 pm - Reply

    October 1996. I got 8′ of snow at my house from that storm. I will never wish for October snow again….

    • blue flash October 16, 2017 at 2:50 pm - Reply

      Sorry – 8″

  23. Mr. Pete October 16, 2017 at 3:08 pm - Reply

    Can we get a down arrow on here?

    • Richard October 16, 2017 at 4:06 pm - Reply

      No we can’t.
      Been asking for down arrow from the beginning. When blog is busy it is a pain to scrolllllll all the way down on phones or tablet.
      Gary has never addressed this issue. Sorry Gary but its true.
      What is the purpose of having an up arrow

  24. Rockdoc October 16, 2017 at 3:27 pm - Reply

    October snows are no fun. I had just moved to Stinkin Lincoln, NE when that pre-Halloween snowstorm hit Oct 24-26, 1997. Nasty. Trees down everywhere, power out for ~10 days in some areas, and no trick-o-treat! Wet heavy snow. I think we got about a foot of snow. So careful what you wish for……check out some of the photos below….a “once in 200 year storm”.

    http://www.nebraskaweatherphotos.org/OCT97SNOW.html

  25. Urbanity October 16, 2017 at 4:04 pm - Reply

    NOAA not seeing precipitation for plains during Oct 24- Oct 30th….GFS fantasy more than 6 days out, probably picking up data feedback from 1997 storm.

    • Three7s October 16, 2017 at 4:18 pm - Reply

      I don’t know, it’s been showing some level of consistency, maybe not with snow, but with a front coming through, for sure.

    • Rockdoc October 16, 2017 at 4:27 pm - Reply

      You’re too funny…..GFS picking up left overs from 1997 storm…lol….:-)

      Bet Gary has been in meetings all day…..plus the weather is quiet for now. Not much to say since the new LRC is just starting. Hope he is enjoying this beautiful weather. Today is a picture perfect fall day. Not too hot and not too cold, plus plenty of sunshine. Has anyone else noticed that the bird population is down…that it seems like some of our feather friends have already left the area? I’ll be looking out for the annual Robin fly-in/stop over which usually happens mid November, sometimes around Veterans Day. If they come early then we’ll know if something is up for sure.

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