A Developing Cyclone

/A Developing Cyclone

A Developing Cyclone

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today:  Increasing clouds after a sunny start. Northeast winds 10-17 mph. High:  73°
  • Tonight: Rain likely with a nearly 100% chance by midnight. There is a chance of a thunderstorm. Low:  50°
  • Tuesday:  Cloudy and much colder with light rain or drizzle lingering into the afternoon. North winds with temperatures dropping into the 40s with wind chills in the 30s.

We awaken on this Monday morning with a clear blue sky over Kansas City. The remnants of Nate are moving over the northeastern United States, and it is snowing over Colorado rather significantly this morning.  Here is the 7 AM Satellite Picture:

SAT_EUS_WVENH

A developing cyclone is in progress this morning and it will continue into Tuesday.  What is a cyclone?  Did you know that a hurricane is a cyclone?  In meteorology, a cyclone is defined to be any large scale system that rotates around a strong center of low pressure.  Cyclones are characterized by spiraling winds rotating inward towards this center of low pressure.  We are seeing something developing over western Colorado this morning that we did not see all of last fall when the cycling pattern developed in 2016-2017. This may very well be exhibit A for this years pattern and it certainly will be fun to watch today.

Here is the surface map from 7 AM this morning:

1

The cyclone aloft may be over western Colorado, but the surface cyclone is farther east and it was centered near Dodge City, KS as I was writing this blog entry early this morning.  If you ever wonder how the cycling pattern can produce one result in October, a different result when the pattern cycles back through in December, and then a very different result again in May or June, this is a good example. At this time of the year, the surface cyclone is forming in response to that strong wave over Colorado.  The placement of the surface features will be different in the future cycle versions of this storm system and they are very predictable, but also certainly challenging.

Now, what will happen with this system? Take a look at the midnight forecast:

2

There are many solutions for how the rain pattern will set up this evening. Let’s watch this evolve and I will have live updates on KSHB.com and on 41 Action News at 4, 5, 6, 6:30, and 10 PM tonight.  I am back to work after a nice vacation.  This will be a fun storm to track.  Let us know if you have any questions and you can join in the conversation on the Weather2020.com blog. Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the cycling pattern.  I am on Sports Radio 810 right now, so I will check in later to see if you have any comments or questions.

Gary

2017-10-10T08:21:32+00:00October 9th, 2017|General|23 Comments

23 Comments

  1. Dobber October 9, 2017 at 8:05 am - Reply

    Is this the new lrc Gary?

  2. Three7s October 9, 2017 at 8:15 am - Reply

    I said yesterday that if this scenario repeats in future cycles, it should bring pretty significant snow. Obviously not 100% on that, but we’ll see. As far as the models go, after this system and another system this weekend, next to nothing showing up through almost the end of the month as it looks like high pressure builds in and takes over. We’ll see how much that changes.

  3. f00dl3 October 9, 2017 at 8:48 am - Reply

    Gary,

    Am I correct in the assumption that the hot October pattern we are in is a result of last year’s LRC undercutting the new developing LRC that hasn’t quite mixed in from the upper levels until a few cycles in (Dec/Jan)?

    If this is so, would this explain my “FRMC” theory I pointed out several years ago where the surface moisture pattern changes dramatically in Jan/Feb as the moisture at the surface “catches up” to the upper level forces influencing it?

    • Gary October 9, 2017 at 9:27 am - Reply

      The storm we are about to experience is fully within the new cycling pattern. It has no hint of the old pattern left. So, this storm will repeat in future cycles, but we will not know the cycle length for almost two more months. Either way, this is a nice development. Let’s see what happens. On the pattern seemingly calming down after this weekend, as has been suggested, again, let’s see what really happens. The models are full of errors.

      Gary

  4. supercell October 9, 2017 at 9:07 am - Reply

    A low tracking across the Kansas/Oklahoma boarder with plenty of cold air to work with…holy snowstorm batman, depending on cycle length if this repeats in 45 days we could be looking at a white thanksgiving…

  5. Urbanity October 9, 2017 at 1:34 pm - Reply

    Let’s hope it has a negative tilt so that much of Kansas can experience winter weather if it repeats. The problem we’ve been having the last few winters has been the storms are coming through as an open wave, not digging or carving out a deep trough, hence the moisture get’s pushed east and south of the turnpike. In central Kansas we have had ONE event over the past two years, and it was ice instead of snow, and the ice melted quick because the storm moved from SW KS to NW of Lincoln, NE and warm air followed. Two years ago we had one very dry 5″ snowfall, last year nothing.

    IMO the atmosphere is more amplified this go around given the hurricanes that have developed, it just seems like there has been more blocking than in past years…dating back a decade or so. If we don”t have many events then at the least we might have 2 or 3 whoppers that really impact us.

    Anybody notice that Accuweather’s winter forecast matches pretty well with the tropical tidbits GFS forecast maps for the next 384 hours? The pattern is showing some troughing in the east and dry weather over the west, south, and southern plains. Could they be using the GFS maps as a basis for their forecast, perhaps knowing that October clearly lies within the LRC developing weather pattern? Hmmm.

    • Three7s October 9, 2017 at 2:58 pm - Reply

      What’s bothering me is how quiet it gets, almost nationwide, next week. Not many cold surges either. It’s still really early, but so far, only one decent sign of potential snow for later cycles.

  6. stl78 October 9, 2017 at 3:34 pm - Reply

    24 inches for kc😉

  7. Anonymous October 9, 2017 at 4:06 pm - Reply

    Winters in KC are mild and dry. Big snow events are few and far between.

    Stop expecting something different!!!!

    • Anonymous October 9, 2017 at 6:52 pm - Reply

      Thats not true…we ve had some very snowy winters…it just the last three have been below normal. Nothing wrong at all with hoping this is one of the snowy seasons.

    • stl78 October 9, 2017 at 8:21 pm - Reply

      Lol…i stand by my 24 in. That is not that much more than avg

    • Terry October 9, 2017 at 9:11 pm - Reply

      We are going to have some good Snow Events KC 21 to 25 Inches this winter ! I That’s my prediction whether you like it or not .

  8. Adam October 9, 2017 at 4:25 pm - Reply

    Nice cluster of supercells southwest of us right now.

  9. Weatherby Tom October 9, 2017 at 4:40 pm - Reply

    Will those supercells make it to KC??

    • Gary October 9, 2017 at 4:48 pm - Reply

      No, they won’t make it this far north. There is a pretty good north wind developing and the thunderstorms will weaken. I just am highly interested in how the rain pattern develops. The computer models are all over the place.

      Gary

  10. Anonymous October 9, 2017 at 6:54 pm - Reply

    Gary, if my comments dont start appearing, im out. This is unacceptable.

    • Gary October 9, 2017 at 10:27 pm - Reply

      Some comments are held in moderation.

      Gary

  11. Snow Miser October 9, 2017 at 9:52 pm - Reply

    The radar is flipping out right now.

  12. Richard October 9, 2017 at 10:10 pm - Reply

    Looks like Hume Dude getting some good rain.
    Barely a few drops in Olathe.

    I am going for 13 inches on the snow.
    But I forget what date I predicted for the first snowflake ! Gary did you make a list of who and what dates ?

  13. Mr. Pete October 9, 2017 at 11:57 pm - Reply

    Looks like a decent soaking rain here in PV. I mowed the grass today and it was still green and thick. I never watered once all summer either.

  14. NoBeachHere October 10, 2017 at 6:33 am - Reply

    Poof

  15. f00dl3 October 10, 2017 at 7:36 am - Reply

    Just like the Pirates of the Carribean song, “Where did all the (rain) go?”

    Seriously – HRRR only shows us with a brief round of showers this afternoon. But GFS does get us in the 30s tomorrow AM.

  16. NoBeachHere October 10, 2017 at 7:52 am - Reply

    Gary,
    I would like a good explanation young man lol.
    Did this storm stall?, split?, dry slotted?, weaken?

    It looks like the push just stopped.

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