Watch the beginning of this years cycling pattern

/Watch the beginning of this years cycling pattern

Watch the beginning of this years cycling pattern

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • This morning: A few rain showers and mostly cloudy.  South winds 5-15 mph.  The chance of measurable rain is 60% early, then dropping to 20% by noon. Temperatures warming into the 70s.
  • This afternoon: The chance of rain goes down to near zero.  South winds 10-20 mph, warm and muggy, with a few breaks of sunshine.  High:  79°
  • Friday Night Lights In The Big Town:  Partly cloudy and dry for the football games. The chance of rain goes up to 80% after midnight.  Low:  60°
  • Saturday:  Rain ending early, then a few breaks of afternoon sunshine and dry.  High:  70°
  • Sunday:  A great fall day, warm, with increasing humidity. High: Near 80°

The weather pattern is now setting up for the winter, but we have to experience the next six to ten weeks before making too many conclusions.  Here is a first look into this developing pattern, and we look at Tropical Storm Nate as well:

Watch the beginning of this years cycling pattern from Weather2020 on Vimeo.

Have a great day and thank you for reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the cycling pattern. Go to, click on the blog, and let me know if you have any questions.


2017-10-09T09:21:16+00:00October 6th, 2017|General|24 Comments


  1. Frankie October 6, 2017 at 8:53 am - Reply

    Gary, all of these troughs coming through the Midwest is definitely a good sign for our winter right? I assume it’s way too early to tell. But it definitely looks like a good start

    • Gary October 6, 2017 at 10:25 am - Reply


      I would answer this yes, but I hesitate because it hasn’t happened yet. Let’s see what actually happens and then we can start discussing what it means. The models are horrible and the models are still basing the pattern on today. But, yes, I do like a little bit of what I see. I will do a comparison to last years beginning next week.


  2. stl78 October 6, 2017 at 9:07 am - Reply

    I think kc will have an above avg winter. 24 inches is my prediction. Here in se mn, the leaves have really started their change. Its beautifel here in the limestone bluffs along the mighty mississippi. If u have never checked out fall around winona mn, u should. Beautiful part of the country….go vikings!😉

  3. Urbanity October 6, 2017 at 9:15 am - Reply

    (Accidentally posted earlier today on yesterdays post, but here is my 2 cents):

    I agree with the Accu weather forecast, for no other reason than what they are showing is the most “likely” weather pattern. It happens about 70-75% of the time where most of Kansas stays dry. We get precip when Spring ushers in and when Fall ushers in, the rest of the time mostly dry in most of Kansas. East of the turnpike is a little different story as they usually have the moisture to work with, KC is on that border line. Either way it’s easy to predict dry weather for most of Kansas because negatively tilted troughs arriving out of the Southwest just don’t happen very often anymore. Now this year we have had a more amplified pattern, Hurricanes are a good signal of that IMO, along with the impressive fluctuation in temps this year. So perhaps, just perhaps, this winter will be different.

  4. Brad October 6, 2017 at 9:27 am - Reply

    Gary, welcome back to KC hope you enjoy the vacation to hilltop head South Carolina….

    As you were showing the models for i think for Nate i noticed something over eastern Colorado into western kansas, not hyping this up yet but was that Snow for the 18th of Oct for western kansas???

    • Gary October 6, 2017 at 10:26 am - Reply

      Let’s keep monitoring closely!

  5. Michael Casteel October 6, 2017 at 9:31 am - Reply

    Had another nice drink of rain up here in Maryville. Recorded .73″ and there is a gentle, steady, drizzle coming down as I write this comment. NOAA saying we are suppose to get another inch or so overnight. Hope it clears out before kick-off! Our NWMSU take on Central Oklahoma Broncos at 1:30p.m. saturday. Have a safe and blessed weekend bloggers!

  6. Urbanity October 6, 2017 at 10:02 am - Reply

    oh and btw, last night there was a 90% chance of heavy rain most of central kansas including west of salina…..what happened….nada. I wonder what didn’t happen in the pattern that they had expected would produce the precip.

  7. Richard October 6, 2017 at 10:31 am - Reply

    What happened to the heavy rain, flooding potential we were going to get. Jeff or maybe it was Jerard said Friday night lights games could be in trouble.

    • Three7s October 6, 2017 at 10:37 am - Reply

      Most of the forecasts have been saying the heavy rain is supposed to be overnight.

  8. Kurt October 6, 2017 at 10:43 am - Reply

    3 days of drizzle and showers with less than 1/2 inch total. While much needed, certainly isn’t what I was hoping for to turn our dry year around.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE October 6, 2017 at 11:06 am - Reply

      I’m right there with you Kurt, I spent hours breaking my back spreading rock on my new spillway dam thinking big rains were on the way. So far about 3/4″, far less than the flooding rains I was hoping for. Now the bigger storms appear to be WAY out west so we will get the leftover weakening showers as they huff and puff to make it here late tonight. If you get another 1/2″ consider yourself lucky. I will probably have to wait until next Spring to get a flooding rainfall

    • Dobber October 7, 2017 at 12:31 am - Reply

      How much drizzle are you getting now kurt? On radar it looks substantial!

      • Kurt October 7, 2017 at 8:10 am - Reply

        You are correct, finally recorded a total of 1.7 inches of rain Friday into early Saturday morning. The most rain in a day since the last week of June. It was much needed rain up here.

        I don’t recall any front doing that in the last lrc, I think October 6th was the new day one

  9. Jill October 6, 2017 at 11:38 am - Reply

    Starting to wonder if we’re really going to see rain tonight. NWS had it in the forecast the past two days, but not much has materialized. Gary, are you still expecting a lot of rain tonight? Fingers crossed!

  10. Craig October 6, 2017 at 12:21 pm - Reply

    Latest SPC outlook has expanded the possibly severe area.

  11. Urbanity October 6, 2017 at 12:40 pm - Reply

    Sunny and warm out all of the sudden, based on what the NWS is saying, and the fact it didn’t rain last night leaving moisture and energy behind, then it
    could get real ugly this evening out here west of Salina. Don’t want any part of severe weather this time of year, or any time, but Fall severe weather just seems wrong.

  12. Craig October 6, 2017 at 2:55 pm - Reply
  13. Richard October 6, 2017 at 9:19 pm - Reply

    Look at this HUGE hail an hour ago in Hanston KS
    Where is Hanston ?

    • KS Jones October 6, 2017 at 10:41 pm - Reply

      Hanston is about 30 miles from Dodge City.
      The heaviest part of the storm system just passed through here (25 miles north of Manhattan) at 10:15 PM with no wind or hail but a lot of rain.

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