Increasing Rain Chances

/Increasing Rain Chances

Increasing Rain Chances

Good Monday bloggers,

We are having a very not October like day with highs in the 80s and high humidity.  A fall change is not that far away, but it is going to have a very tough time arriving.  The front separating the summer and fall air is heading southeast, but will stall.  Let’s go through the next few days and update the chance and amounts of rainfall.

MONDAY AFTERNOON: There is a decent cold front slicing across the Plains as temperatures range from near 90° in Salina to the 40s in Denver.  Rain and thunderstorms will form along this front tonight, but they will stay well northwest of KC.

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TUESDAY: The front will be moving at a snail’s pace so eastern Kansas and western Missouri will remain in the warm and humid air, but due to thicker low clouds highs will stay in the 70s.  It will also stay mostly dry as the front is still well northwest. Now, that being said a brief shower is not out of the question.

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WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: The front will head south and stall around I-70.  The exact front location is still unknown, but the location of the front will be key to who sees the heaviest rain.  So, this map represents these days, as areas of rain and thunderstorms will track along this front as disturbances track from southwest to northeast.

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The front will head back north as a warm front Friday as a new cold front arrives Friday night as a main system in the western USA comes out into the Plains and Midwest.  If we are going to have severe weather this week, Friday night would be the best chance along the advancing cold front.

RAINFALL FORECAST: This forecast is still not set in stone as the front stalling location is still not known.  But, you get the idea that much of our region will see 2″ to 4″ of rain through Saturday.  If you end up in an area where the thunderstorms are training, you could end up with more than 4″.

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Have a great night and Tuesday and GO CHIEFS!

Jeff Penner

2017-10-04T07:34:04+00:00October 2nd, 2017|General|7 Comments

7 Comments

  1. Turd Ferguson October 2, 2017 at 5:42 pm - Reply

    18z GFS just halfed these totals,, pushed the 4′ up to Nebraska.. thoughts?

  2. Rockdoc October 3, 2017 at 12:00 am - Reply

    Reporting in from Buena Vista, Colorado. Cold chilly day. Mostly cloudy and scattered sprinkles here in the valley. Snow in the high country.

    Buck returned to the yard for breakfast this morning and does/childos in field to the west. Just found out that they’ve closed the road over Cottonwood Pass for new road construction but can at least get up this side of pass. There is new snow up there so I’ll try and head up to get pictures for Weather 2020 snow lovers! Also, I’ll send pics back of deer/elk and maybe Jeff will post 🤗

  3. Snow Miser October 3, 2017 at 8:49 am - Reply

    It occurred to me this must be the new pattern because the rain is coming in the first half of the month so far. Old pattern was dry early in the month.

    • Three7s October 3, 2017 at 9:34 am - Reply

      It’s hard for me to say. I want to say this is the new pattern, but I have heard zero confirmation from Gary on that, so we’ll just have to wait and see. If it is, that would be great. This could be a huge snowstorm in the winter months.

      • REAL HUMEDUDE October 3, 2017 at 11:09 am - Reply

        I got a 5″ rain last Oct 5-6th. I was all excited thinking the new pattern was off to a monster start, but Gary told me it was still clearly the last gasp of the old pattern. So with every year being different , this could be new pattern but not necessarily

  4. Brian October 3, 2017 at 2:03 pm - Reply

    If it rains or snows in December it will be said it’s the new pattern. If not he will say it hasn’t developed yet.

  5. Liberty Alex October 3, 2017 at 3:05 pm - Reply

    Apologies if this has been asked before. The lunar cycle is approximately 29.5 days and the CPH is 58-61 days. Is there a chance the lunar cycle is part of the CPH given 29.5 * 2 = 59? Since the lunar cycle has an effect on tides, perhaps the gravitational pull influences the atmosphere or other oscillations?

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