3 Tornado Reports In Yesterdays Outbreak

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Good morning bloggers,

On March 1, 2017 we made the Hot Spot Forecast for where the most likely location for the worst of the severe weather for the up coming season. We use the cycling weather pattern as described by the LRC to make these forecasts and it appears that this season has fallen right into place.

This Years Forecast Hot Spot for severe weather:

Yesterdays moderate risk verified as the system fell right into the forecast hot spot. There were over 600 severe weather reports, mostly wind and hail. In fact, incredibly there was only 1 tornado report yesterday. Can you believe that?  Unfortunately there were many tornado warnings, so the false alarm rate had to have been over 90% which is not good.

There is only around two more weeks left of tornado season and I will explain what happens in a blog later this week.  When you look at the tornadoes reported by state it is rather eye opening, and another rather good way to show the verification of our hot spot forecast made three months ago.

Tornadoes by state so far this season:

  1. Texas:  115
  2. Georgia:  112
  3. Missouri:  76
  4. Louisiana:  67
  5. Mississippi:  63
  6. Kansas:  49
  7. Illinois:  47
  8. Alabama:  40
  9. Oklahoma:  34
  10. Iowa:  31
  11. Arkansas:  23
  12. Kentucky:  20
  13. South Carolina:  19
  14. Tennessee:  19
  15. Virginia:  18
  16. Indiana:  18
  17. Pennsylvania:  11
  18. Ohio:  10
  19. Wisconsin:  9
  20. New Mexico:  8
  21. North Carolina:  7
  22. Minnesota:  6
  23. Nebraska:  5
  24. 16 States have not had one tornado reported yet in 2017.

I am not sure if the most glaring thing from looking at the top 23 states is that Georgia is really way in the lead with 112, when you consider the size of Georgia vs. Texas, but perhaps the fact the Nebraska has had only five tornadoes at this point of the season? Their season starts a bit later, but that is a really low total and indicative of how this pattern has produced that hot spot off to the east.

Today’s Severe Weather Risk:

The risk shifts southeast and weakens today.  The weather is calming down a bit today. Have a great Sunday and thank you for participating and sharing in this weather experience.

Gary

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KS Jones
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KS Jones

The wet conditions this spring have produced an abundance of poison hemlock. I see it growing in ditches all along the highways. Don’t make the fatal mistake of thinking it is Wild Carrot (Queen Anne’s Lace). And on the topic of recurring cycles — the last migratory bird to arrive this season was right on time. “Rain Crows” (Yellow-billed Cuckoos) showed up like clockwork on May 27th. Not saying that is the day they got here, but it is always the day they make themselves obvious. Ornithologists say they are timid and are rarely seen, but ours are showboaters and… Read more »

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

My goodness. No one has posted anything since Saturday. Must mean everyone is out and about enjoying the fine weather.