Morning Complex Of Thunderstorms May Have Huge Impact

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10:45 AM Update:

There is one rather strong thunderstorm that has our attention at 10:45 AM. This is associated with an upper level disturbance and has been alive and well for a few hours. After this passes the risk will go down.

Previous Entry Below:

 

Good morning bloggers,

The Kansas City region seems to get affected by these morning complexes of thunderstorms and how they influence the rest of the day more than other regions. This is a big factor as I am writing this at 7 AM this morning.

Updated Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • 10 AM – Noon: Thunderstorms move off to the northeast, but a second more important band increases to the west and approaches
  • Noon to 6 PM: One band of strong to severe thunderstorms possible as a disturbance moves by.  High: 76°
  • Sunday: A gorgeous day. High:  77°
  • Memorial Day: A chance of an afternoon rain shower, but most of the day is nice. High: 80°

We have to monitor this closely near KC until around 4 PM when everything should be intensifying to the east!

There is a big risk of severe thunderstorms today.  The morning thunderstorms are influencing the surface pattern early this morning and there is a wave of thunderstorms that has produced a large pool of rain cooled air. Here was the thunderstorm complex as of 7:10 AM:

This will likely be a bigger factor than what the Storm Prediction Center was anticipating. I drew in the white dashed line which is the outflow from these thunderstorms. This may push the severe weather risk south and east as this expands. There are still questions as to how it will impact the risk later today for sure and I am still analyzing early this morning myself.

I see that the SPC has not done a very good analysis for our area. They mention this rain cooled air, but it is a much bigger factor. Take a look at the latest HRRR, one of the mesoscale models:

This model shows the latest forecast for redevelopment this afternoon. We have been through this so many times in KC, but if this is right, and to me it appears that it will be, this mornings thunderstorm complex will have pushed any severe weather risk out of the Kansas City Region.

Here is what the SPC and other meteorologists forget to do:

  • Look outside!
  • Look at radar and satellite (also what is going on now)
  • Then, look at computer models and throw out the models that don’t fit. And guess what, the models were worthless on this mornings band of rain

I have been up and down since 9:30 PM last night, still think I got around six hours of sleep, however. And, if you just monitored the radar, then for Kansas City at least you would realize that this was going to affect the rest of the day. Oh, it is not easy. And, I wasn’t convinced until around now.

Something to monitor closely:

Let’s watch the thunderstorms north of Wichita closely. In looking at the surface, they are deeply into this rain cooled air mass, so even this area is likely to stay below severe levels

Here is how it looked just north of KC this morning with that line:

Here was our month long forecast for May that we posted around a month ago and the other graphic showing the accurate forecasts for May. We picked out this risk really well four weeks ago:

Gary

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RockdocThree7sSnow MiserMr. PeteHeat MIser Recent comment authors
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Three7s
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Three7s

Wow, down in SE MO, that is the literal DEFINITION of a severe weather outbreak. Storm chasers must be having a ball…..

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

But with the severe storms/tornadoes come destruction of property and potential injuries and death. Never good 😠

Storm chasers can have a “good time”, but people affected will have to deal with the aftermath for a long time.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Is that next batch of rain coming out of Colorado gonna hit us tonight/ tomorrow?

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

According to the HRRR it’s supposed to head to the east-southeast, so it should pass south of us.

Fred Nolan
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Fred Nolan

And here comes the muggy weather following the morning storms. Dodged another severe event here in Olathe, just heavy rain here for about 20 minutes. Rain gauge has just shy of an inch from that 20 minute deluge.

L.B
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L.B

Half inch just south of Gardner…uughh didn’t quit mowing till January started in march bring on the heat

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

Rained cats and dogs here in PV. Monitored radar as storm moved in. A magenta pink area passed right over my location. It poured in sheets. Winds also picked up enough so gate was blown open with big gust! Sure did cool down though, so hopefully no warm up for severe weather later today. More rain developing out near Topeka! Wonder if it will expand before arriving here?

BDH
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BDH

Man, I hope everyone down at the lake is aware of what’s going on. Some intense wind.

Tim
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Tim

Nws reported soft ball size hail in adrian,mo.. saw the pics on facebook

joe
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joe

Gary,

I am beyond confused now, We had a severe thunderstorm warning and we barely had any wind, no hail and it was just thunder and rain. Now an tornado watch? Is NWS losing it? or am I completely missing something?

Three7s
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Three7s

Refer to my previous comment……or Snow Misers…..

Heat MIser
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Heat MIser

Tornado Watch is for a wide area meaning conditions are favorable for tornadoes. Most areas within most Tornado Watches see no severe weather at all.

joe
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joe

Heat,

Love ya man but yes, I understand the nature and purpose of a tornado watch, My point was that not only were the storms not severe that came through the metro, but I disn’t see anything that warrants a tornado watch. of course, I am not a Met so I was asking Gary if I was missing something. I think he nailed the rain cooled air forecast when every other station was singing the same tune that the SPC was. better to be safe than sorry I guess

Heat MIser
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Heat MIser

I can’t tell ya how many times over the years I’ve seen Tornado Watches issues that didnt seem logical and where nothing really popped up anywhere

Heat MIser
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Heat MIser

issued

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser
Tim
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Tim

So does this kill anymore severe threat in KC area?

Janet
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Janet

Our storm here in western Olathe wasn’t exactly severe, no wind or hail, but we got a great rain. I’m confused about the new tornado watch for us, though. I figured this complex that went through just now would end the chances, but now a tornado watch??

Three7s
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Three7s

Just the SPC shaking in their boots. Yet another unwarranted watch.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Tornado Watch JOCO

Jason
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Jason

One just developed over my house south of Lawrence and west of Baldwin. Pretty heavy rain for a short time. One farther west as well. Definitely hoping this limits severe weather later

Lsmike
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Lsmike

Gary even the storms out by Topeka look to miss most of kc to north. What’s your thoughts? I’m thinking no rain for most and I’m gonna have to water fertilizer in. I jinxed us!!!! 😑

Heat MIser
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Heat MIser

Nope, an fairly strong T-storm just developed…heading right for kc

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

The severe weather risk just went POOF for Kansas City.

BORING

Lsmike
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Lsmike

Idk it’s sunny at my house in BS , won’t that destabilize the atmosphere.? The dew point is 68 already.

DanT
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DanT

Some interesting developments as of 1000 this morning. A Significant Weather Advisory for Northern Marion County in central Kansas on a storm that has intensified back into the cooler air. And Significant Weather Advisory for Northeastern St. Claire County in Mo. from what I can tell is right along the leading edge of the outflow boundary. There is a huge difference in dew points from Kansas City to Joplin Mo. Is there enough time to get some air mass recovery before the front moves through this after noon?

Lsmike
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Lsmike

I put fertilizer down just now so it’s definitely not going to rain in Blue Springs😡

Dan M.
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Dan M.

Gary – When I went to bed last night around 11:30, I looked at the NWS forecast and they were saying no storms until after 2:00 pm today. However if you looked at the radar at that time the MCS was clearly forming in NW Kansas and growing. It was moving east. I couldn’t believe the NWS was not accounting for this MCS to continue this way this morning. My first thought was they aren’t looking at the radar and just making a model forecast. While the forecast didnt affect my plans, anyone relying on it for this morning would… Read more »

Dan M.
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Dan M.

*why this is happening more frequently? – typing on a phone gets me every time.

stl78
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stl78

This is the 3 time trying to get stuff from kc to mn. All failures due to rain……sigh. hopefully, later this morning after the line moves through.

Terry
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Terry

The key word is May but we don’t really know ! I still think we’re going to have severe weather later today.

Joe
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Joe

Terry,

lol, latest HRRR is hinting in the direction of what Gary is saying is a possibility. At least, I am hoping that is how it materializes

Three7s
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Three7s

I can almost guarantee that will happen.

Terry
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Terry

Yeah but you also know that the air could become destabilized again if the sun comes out which I think it will and all heck could break loose. That’s if the latest HRRR is right!

Joe
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Joe

Terry,

In theory yes, however, you are missing one important detail, this system is coming through earlier in the day so day time heating wont be as much of a factor. If this were an evening storm, absolutely. We will have to wait and see as all other stations are on board with the SPC. Gary is the only one stating the above forecast and personally, I agree with him

Terry
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Terry

Joe it looks like we may have severe weather

Joe
Guest
Joe

Terry,

We may have some severe weather, however, it doesn’t appear to be anywhere near the threat level that it looked to be building into and that was the point of my post earlier. Severe weather is one thing but widespread severe weather with massive destructive results is quite another. That is what appears to have been pushed farther South. Make sense?

Terry
Guest
Terry

Severe thunderstorm warning for Wyandotte County

joe
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joe

Terry, I think you were completely missing the point about the conditions now versus what they were forecasted to be. If what came through recently was severe, I will eat my hat:D

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

As it appears right now, the southern half of the metro will miss this MCS. Thanks to the stabilizing of the atmosphere caused by the MCS, some areas will not get rain, right?

Jason
Guest
Jason

Thanks for the early morning post. Fascinating