10:45 AM Update:
There is one rather strong thunderstorm that has our attention at 10:45 AM. This is associated with an upper level disturbance and has been alive and well for a few hours. After this passes the risk will go down.
Previous Entry Below:
Good morning bloggers,
The Kansas City region seems to get affected by these morning complexes of thunderstorms and how they influence the rest of the day more than other regions. This is a big factor as I am writing this at 7 AM this morning.
Updated Kansas City Weather Time-Line:
- 10 AM – Noon: Thunderstorms move off to the northeast, but a second more important band increases to the west and approaches
- Noon to 6 PM: One band of strong to severe thunderstorms possible as a disturbance moves by. High: 76°
- Sunday: A gorgeous day. High: 77°
- Memorial Day: A chance of an afternoon rain shower, but most of the day is nice. High: 80°
We have to monitor this closely near KC until around 4 PM when everything should be intensifying to the east!
There is a big risk of severe thunderstorms today. The morning thunderstorms are influencing the surface pattern early this morning and there is a wave of thunderstorms that has produced a large pool of rain cooled air. Here was the thunderstorm complex as of 7:10 AM:
This will likely be a bigger factor than what the Storm Prediction Center was anticipating. I drew in the white dashed line which is the outflow from these thunderstorms. This may push the severe weather risk south and east as this expands. There are still questions as to how it will impact the risk later today for sure and I am still analyzing early this morning myself.
I see that the SPC has not done a very good analysis for our area. They mention this rain cooled air, but it is a much bigger factor. Take a look at the latest HRRR, one of the mesoscale models:
This model shows the latest forecast for redevelopment this afternoon. We have been through this so many times in KC, but if this is right, and to me it appears that it will be, this mornings thunderstorm complex will have pushed any severe weather risk out of the Kansas City Region.
Here is what the SPC and other meteorologists forget to do:
- Look outside!
- Look at radar and satellite (also what is going on now)
- Then, look at computer models and throw out the models that don’t fit. And guess what, the models were worthless on this mornings band of rain
I have been up and down since 9:30 PM last night, still think I got around six hours of sleep, however. And, if you just monitored the radar, then for Kansas City at least you would realize that this was going to affect the rest of the day. Oh, it is not easy. And, I wasn’t convinced until around now.
Something to monitor closely:
Let’s watch the thunderstorms north of Wichita closely. In looking at the surface, they are deeply into this rain cooled air mass, so even this area is likely to stay below severe levels
Here is how it looked just north of KC this morning with that line:
Here was our month long forecast for May that we posted around a month ago and the other graphic showing the accurate forecasts for May. We picked out this risk really well four weeks ago: