Look At The Thunderstorms NOT modeled

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Good late evening bloggers,

The NAM model came out with a very “bad” solution with extreme severe weather near KC Saturday around 7 PM. This same model, however, is modeling NOTHING where these thunderstorms are located at 9 PM:

P

These thunderstorms are not being modeled by the latest data. If they fall apart, then we could have all kinds of problems on Saturday. If they hold together and organize into an MCS, then we could still have morning thunderstorms that will be severe. Which scenario is coming together?

12:45AM update:  The thunderstorms continue to organize.  If this is the main show on Saturday, then it will be coming through earlier in the day.  If this falls apart, then the storied late day solution is still possible.  We should know by 5 AM.

3AM update:

Gary

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Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Gary has been posting updates on Twitter FYI

Three7s
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Three7s

Yeah, the current track takes it north of KCI.

Joe
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Joe

Lsmike,

It does look like it is taking a slight turn North. I was hoping it would stay South to stabilize the atmosphere and prevent severe storms in our area this afternoon. Of course, as stated above, I am confused on what this system is going to do. Many weather sources are all over the place. Waiting on Gary as he is the only one I trust

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Gary is that Rain gonna hit KC?

Lsmike
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Lsmike

To me looks like storms are turning north towards st jo and barely glance kci area.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

The lightning let up a bit so I checked the rain gauge — got 0.7″ of rain in that ten minute deluge.

Joe
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Joe

Very confused with conflicting opinions on what will happen today. Thought a morning organized system would lessen or completely alter this afternoon however, it looks like NWS is sticking to their guns second round of severe storms after the first round. Gary, have you formed an opinion yet on this?

KS Jones
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KS Jones

Got small hail, wind & rain at 6:05 AM. Rain came down like a cow p….. oh, you know the phrase. The hail storm lasted about 8 minutes and the heavy rain let up a bit after 10 minutes. Getting light rain & lightning now (6:23 AM).
Radar shows the core of the storm has passed over here (Big Blue River Valley) and is heading east rapidly.

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

I’ve noticed this thing a lot, and always wondered why the models do not pick up on the error the next time it runs. This is particularly true of the HRRR, which, since it runs every hour, you would think it would pick up on a new feature out there that didn’t show up on the previous model run. But I notice a lot of times it doesn’t. There will be an MCS or something else that’s been going for, like, 3 or 4 hours, and the HRRR still hasn’t caught wind of it.

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

You are looking at a crap HRRR, likely Pivotals product if I may guess?
I hate Pivotal HRRR product, it isn’t as good as the NWS HRRR. They are NOT equal models, at same time any given day they have two different solutions. One is NCEP, the other is likely experimental. You have to be a real model geek to know the difference, I m not smart enough to know what they are but they are different

j-ox
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j-ox

Nebulous!

What time Sat AM might they/it roll through?

Weatherfreaker
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Weatherfreaker

What??? I don’t get what you are saying…

Jason
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Jason

Yikes!