Good late evening bloggers,
The NAM model came out with a very “bad” solution with extreme severe weather near KC Saturday around 7 PM. This same model, however, is modeling NOTHING where these thunderstorms are located at 9 PM:
These thunderstorms are not being modeled by the latest data. If they fall apart, then we could have all kinds of problems on Saturday. If they hold together and organize into an MCS, then we could still have morning thunderstorms that will be severe. Which scenario is coming together?
12:45AM update: The thunderstorms continue to organize. If this is the main show on Saturday, then it will be coming through earlier in the day. If this falls apart, then the storied late day solution is still possible. We should know by 5 AM.